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Gulf Region Market Background & List of Major GULF REGION MARKET BACKGROUND & LIST OF MAJOR PROJECTS Prepared by: Jonathan Berger dmg world media Dubai Limited Al Moosa Tower II P.O. Box 33817 Dubai United Arab Emirates Tel: ++ 9714 3319688 Fax: ++ 9714 3319480 E-Mail : [email protected] Web-site: www.dmgdubai.com GULF REGION – MARKET BACKGROUND INDEX 1. LOCATION & POPULATION 2. TRADING BACKGROUND 3. THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR LIST OF MAJOR PROJECTS APPENDIX I – BAHRAIN APPENDIX II – SAUDI ARABIA APPENDIX III – QATAR APPENDIX IV - KUWAIT GULF REGION – MARKET BACKGROUND 1. LOCATION AND POPULATION The Gulf region, located between Europe and the Indian sub-continent, remains a strategically important area of the world with over 65% of the world’s oil reserves. The main trading block in the region is the Gulf Co-operation Council (“GCC”) comprising Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (“UAE”), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. Although not as firmly integrated as the European Union, there is now a common import tariff (generally 5%) and plans to introduce a common currency by 2010. (It is likely this will be linked to the US dollar as most GCC currencies currently are). To the north of the Gulf are Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, where there are large scale developments to house the increasing population along with substantial investments going into infrastructure. Across the Arabian Sea are Iran and the Indian sub-continent. All these areas have enormous commercial potential and they all trade with the GCC states. The Gulf region has one of the fastest growing population rates in the world. The high birth rate, coupled with the wealth resulting from the oil reserves and now the large scale gas production, has created a dynamic high growth economy in the region. The population is forecast to grow from the current level of 134 million to 187 million by the year 2025 and then to 237 million by 2050. With the continuing integration of countries within the GCC and the trading opportunities in the region, this will create a market that will rank alongside the European Union, the US and Japan. POPULATION 1970 2005 2025 2050 Annual % 000s Actual Actual Forecast Forecast 2005-2025 Saudi Arabia 5,800 24,573 37,160 49,464 2.1% UAE 200 4,618 6,875 9,302 2.0% Kuwait 800 2,589 4,610 7,039 2.9% Bahrain 200 731 965 1,155 1.4% Qatar 100 768 1,027 1,103 1.5% Oman 700 2,436 2,984 3,662 1.0% -------- -------- -------- -------- GCC States 7,800 35,715 53,621 71,725 2.1% Iraq 9,500 69,515 89,042 101,944 1.2% Iran 28,700 28,807 44,664 63,393 2.2% -------- -------- -------- -------- Gulf Region 46,000 134,037 187,327 237,062 1.7 % ===== ===== ===== ===== GULF REGION – MARKET BACKGROUND 2. TRADING BACKGROUND Trade with the Gulf has been largely YEAR END US$ OIL PRICE dictated by the oil price. Broadly, an 80 additional one US dollar on the price 58.5 60 of a barrel of oil increases the 32.5 36.5 40 27.5 31 30 revenues of the Gulf States by about 12 17 20 US$5 billion. In 1998 the price fell, 0 at one point, to US$11 per barrel. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Since then, despite the normal ups and downs, the oil price has followed a general upward trend and now stands at just below $60 per barrel. Based on the average annual oil price, the oil revenues of the Gulf States for 2005 will approach US$240 billion. If the oil price stays at the current level, and this would seem to be a reasonable assumption given the increasing demands from China and India, then this figure will increase to about US$300 billion in 2006. In addition to the oil reserves, 38.7% of the world’s proven gas reserves are located in the Gulf region. Production from these gas fields is beginning to increase, particularly in Qatar, and this will add another significant revenue stream. On top of the oil and gas revenues, there has been a significant increase in cash flows into the region with the increased opportunities for Arab investment in the region. This is occurring particularly in the hospitality sector. There is massive investment underway in hotels and shopping malls across the region which is responding to the increase in tourism. The wealth being generated is also increasing immigration and this in turn provides opportunities for investment in the residential and commercial sectors. The GCC has a GDP of US$414 billion (being just over 1% of world GDP (US$40,866 billion). However, some of the highest Per Capita GDP’s in the world can be found in these countries, particularly Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait. COUNTRY GDP GDP 2004 2005 (US$ billion) Per Capita (US$) GROWTH % GROWTH % (estimates) Saudi Arabia 250.5 11,065 5.3 8.7 UAE 70.9 23,968 7.4 4.5 Kuwait 41.7 19,559 7.2 4.9 Bahrain 9.6 14,177 5.5 5.0 Qatar 20.4 37,610 12.0 6.0 Oman 21.4 10,436 2.5 3.6 GDP growth will probably be revised upwards for 2005, primarily as a result of the continuing high oil price and high level of investment in the construction sector. According to a recent UN conference on Trade and Development, the GCC States attracted US$1.8 billion of Foreign Development Investment in 2003. This will increase significantly in 2004 and 2005 due to the opportunities in the region, the relaxation of trade barriers and the improved governance being implemented by The new International Financial Centres in Bahrain, Qatar and Dubai. GULF REGION – MARKET BACKGROUND 3. THE GULF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR A recent report issued by Meed Projects has indicated that there are GULF PROJECTS - US$ BILLION currently 1,400 on going projects in the OMAN 28 Gulf region with a value in the region BAHRAIN QATAR IRAN 87 IRAQ 20 of US$697 billion. It is estimated that 22 103 this total is increasing at a rate of US$4 billion per week as new projects are announced. As a result of this, the construction sector will remain very buoyant. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar KUWAIT and Oman account for US$341 billion 70 UAE 221 SAUDI 146 (49%) of these projects. The total construction spend in the GCC, Iran and Iraq is currently running at US$294 billion. Construction in Saudi Arabia has achieved growth rates of 8% in 2003 and 9% in 2004 and it is expected to be above 10% in 2005. US$70 billion was invested by the Government in 2004 in general infrastructure (roads, electricity, hospitals, universities etc.) as well as in industrial infrastructure and tourism. Projects worth US$624 billion are to be launched in Saudi Arabia in the next fifteen years. Other factors pointing to the buoyant level of the construction sector are consumption of cement. In Saudi Arabia this has been increasing at about 10% per annum in the last two years (now at 25.1 million tonnes). The upward trends can also be determined from a review of selected imports of construction related materials into the GCC. These again demonstrate the rapid increase in imports required to feed the construction sector (a 37% increase in 2003 followed by a 30% increase in 2004) and also the pre- eminent position of Dubai and the UAE (42% of all imports of iron, steel and copper). IMPORTS IRON & STEEL COPPER YEAR YEAR YEAR US$ millions 2004 2003 2002 DUBAI 2,192 311 2,503 1,460 1,045 ABU DHABI 1,080 42 1,122 1,180 810 SHARJAH 131 8 139 107 84 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ UAE 3,403 361 3,764 2,747 1,939 SAUDI 2,585 396 2,981 2,592 1,965 KUWAIT 293 13 306 205 178 BAHRAIN 266 12 278 186 162 QATAR 644 18 662 644 399 OMAN 782 102 884 435 340 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ GCC TOTAL 7,973 902 8,875 6,809 4,983 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ APPENDIX I BAHRAIN - MAJOR PROJECTS • $544 million Salam Beach Resort and Spa Bahrain: Dubai International Properties (DIP) plans to build the beach resort and spa to be located on Bahrain's south-west side. It will sprawl over a site that is approximately 500,000 sq m in size and will include a five-star deluxe hotel, traditional suq, hotel villas and spa, marina and wellness centre. The project is to be completed in March 2009. • New Northern Town: The Works and Housing Ministry has recently awarded a $176 million contract for the first and second phases of dredging and reclamation work for Bahrain's new mega Northern Town to Boskalis Westminster Middle East. The new Northern Town will include more than 15,000 homes. • Al Essel Power & Water project: Work is under way on Bahrain’s first independent water and power plant in Hidd. • Abraj Al Lulu residential project: Construction work is under way on this $252 residential tower in the heart of Manama. The project covers an area of 200,000 sq ft and will comprise three multi-storey luxury residential towers, which are expected to be completed by 2007. • $144m aluminium invesment: The UN Industrial Development Organisation (Unido) has called on investors to back 16 aluminium projects valued at $144 million. Kuwait Finance House (KFH) has already selected 11 of the projects for financial investment as a local partner. • $1.5 billion Bahrain Financial Harbour: The project, which is expected to be the financial capital of the region – is fast taking shape in central Manama.
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