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The Property Report the Propertyforeword Report – Bahrain

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The Property Report the Propertyforeword Report – Bahrain BAHRAIN RESEARCH 2020 REPORT Savills Research The Property Report The PropertyForeword Report – Bahrain Foreword The Kingdom of Bahrain has adopted a strategy The onset of COVID-19 pandemic, however, to diversify its economy and empower the private has now undone a lot of progress made under sector to play a bigger role in achieving the the FBP. The situation has been exacerbated by country’s Economic Vision 2030. The economic the dramatic drop in oil prices earlier this year. reforms adopted as part of the strategy has Consequently, in the first half of this year the yielded positive results for the country. The budget deficit nearly doubled to BD 798 mn (USD overall GDP more than doubled between 2002 2.1 Bn), up 98% year-on-year (y-o-y). As a result and 2017, with growth in the non-oil sector of this, the timeline of achieving the targeted increased by an average of 7.5% annually. fiscal balance by 2022 is now likely to be pushed back. Under the broader economic reforms, the government also launched the National Planning According to recent data released by the Ministry Development Strategy 2030 and established the of Finance and National Economy (MoF), during Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA). This is the first half of this year, overall government now helping the nation to achieve an integrated revenues fell to BD 910 million (USD 2.4 Bn), approach towards urban development, increase down 29% compared to the same period last year transparency, promote investments while while oil revenues (in particular) were down by protecting the rights of consumers. Numerous 35% for the same period. The non-oil sector was labour market regulatory programme have also also affected, albeit less severely, with revenues been introduced, key among which is the Flexible down 13% year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Worker System, which permits foreign workers Content to live in the Kingdom of Bahrain without a Similar to the country’s economic landscape, the sponsor and work in several fields with multiple real estate sector has been under pressure for the 4 employers on a full or part-time basis. These last few years and this is now likely to continue Macroeconomic factors have contributed towards creating a for the foreseeable future given the challenging overview business-friendly environment in Bahrain and global economic landscape. Despite the making it a preferred choice for expatriates to diversification strategy, the intrinsic connection 8 live and work. between Bahrain’s economy and the oil & gas Residential Market industry means that the recent price fluctuations However, government revenues especially in the have created increased pressure on investments, 10 non-oil sector have not kept pace with the overall employment and consequently on the real estate Office Market diversification strategy. Successive budget sector. The longer-term trends across the sector deficits in recent years saw public debt reach are still evolving, but, we anticipate a subdued 80% of GDP in 2018 compared to 13% in 2008. real estate market over the coming twelve 12 To address the issue, the government introduced months. Retail Market the Fiscal Balance Programme (FBP) with an aim to achieve a balanced budget by 2022. 14 The introduction of VAT and the USD 10 Bn in Outlook financing from neighbouring GCC countries are critical milestones in effect towards achieving the targets set out in the FBP. Hashim Kadhem Head of Professional Services Bahrain +973 321 77 033 [email protected] 3 The Property Report – Bahrain The Property Report – Bahrain However, fiscal consolidation measures under the FBP should lower the deficit in the coming years Significant economic decline with initiatives such as the introduction of VAT, and with USD 10 Bn in financing from other GCC due to the pandemic countries also helping the improvement. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely disrupted the Overall economic output is also expected to significantly BAHRAIN HAS CONSISTENTLY THE BAHRAIN GOVERNMENT MOVED economic landscape in Bahrain. The country was already slowdown in 2020 with the GDP projected to decline by under significant economic pressures as persistent large 5.9% in 2020 after a 1.8% growth last year. Non-oil GDP is RANKED HIGH ON VARIOUS VERY SWIFTLY TO PUT IN PLACE A fiscal deficits have raised public debt from 42% of GDP in likely to contract by 5.1% y-o-y while the oil sector economy PARAMETERS MAKING PACKAGE TO SUPPORT THE HARDEST 2013 to close to 79% in 2019. With the onset of the pandemic is set to decline by 9.9% in 2020. According to ratings IT AN IDEAL BUSINESS HIT SECTIONS OF SOCIETY. THIS straining government finances and a drop in oil prices, the agency Moody’s, interest payments on general government DESTINATION INCLUDED: fiscal position continues to remain precarious. It is projected debt now account for 20% of government revenues as the that the government revenues are set to drop by 8.5% in debt is running at a little over 100% of the country’s gross 2020, compared to a 2.5% growth recorded in 2019. This will domestic product (GDP). • The high-speed regional connectivity and a • Salary assistance for Bahraini nationals in the push the overall debt to 103% of the GDP in 2020. road link to the largest market in the region and private sector another planned causeway in the pipeline. • Paying the utility bills of all citizens and • Most sectors enjoy 100% foreign ownership residents • Tax advantages including no corporation tax • Deferment of loan payments for nationals 8 120 • Ranked 1st for regulatory framework and • Waiving of municipality fees and tourism 6 shariah governance in the 2019 Islamic Finance levies 100 Development Report 4 • Waiving of rent for government-owned 80 • Operating cost advantages including up to industrial land 2 43% lower logistics costs, up to 33% lower manufacturing costs, up to 35% lower financial • The setting up of a liquidity support fund 0 60 services costs and up to 20% lower ICT costs 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 2022 • Central Bank of Bahrain creating additional -2 compared against other GCC cities USD / BARREL USD / BARREL loan facilities for retail banks 40 -4 • Skilled competitive local workforce with high GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE The support provided by the government proportion of bilingual speakers 20 throughout this period has reinforced that -6 • Consistently ranked highly in expat Bahrain is business friendly and a great start up -8 0 satisfaction surveys location for international players planning to enter the GCC market. GDP BRENT CRUDE OIL GDP TREND SOURCE OXFORD ECONOMICS, KNOEMA, SAVILLS RESEARCH 4 5 TheThe PropertyProperty ReportReport –– BahrainBahrain The Property Report – Bahrain Savills has compiled Bahrain’s first property market indices. This covers the office sale and rental market as well as the residential sale and rental market and is tracked quarterly, with further real estate segments to be added at a later stage. Our basket of properties include projects from the low to high-end segment across the most popular geographies in Bahrain. 66 7 The Property Report – Bahrain The Property Report – Bahrain A high volume of freehold apartments has entered the market over the past three years Residential Market Rental We assume that residential rental rates Sale 100 will continue to decline for the remainder The past few years have seen a of this year across apartment and villa A high volume of freehold apartments has readjustment of living patterns following projects with the high-end segment entered the market over the past three 98 an increase in energy costs which facing the most pressure as households years with a further 7,500 units expected resulted in a shift from larger to smaller tighten their budget on the back of in the next five years, worsening the 96 units. This is largely limited to the villa subdued economic outlook, uncertainty supply/demand imbalance. Historically, segment and even more so for those investors would buy an entire residential surrounding employment in the private 94 rented on an exclusive basis (utility costs sector, and salary reductions. For many, floor to rent it with yield expectations of not included). Further, the occupier more than 8%. However, given the lack working from home has been a positive 92 movement has been observed given the experience, even leading to claims of of demand in the rental market, there increase in supply by approximately 3,500 increased productivity. For some people, has been a consequential impact on the RESIDENTIAL RENTS (100=2019) apartment units in a short period. This is being able to control, create and craft freehold off-plan sales market. 90 set to be further intensified with a supply their working environment at home has However, in terms of capital values, Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 of 4,322 units over the next four years benefits; for others, the experience has villas fared worse year-on-year during Q3 when Golden Gate Towers, Oryx Bahrain led to feelings of boredom, loneliness 2020 with an average decrease of 5.2% APARTMENT VILLA Bay, The Views, Layan, Paramount Tower, and reduced learning and development compared to 4.4% for apartments. High- Harbour Row, Canal View, Spiral Orchid RESIDENTIAL RENTAL VALUE INDEX SOURCE SAVILLS RESEARCH without face-to-face interaction with end villas faced the steepest drop with a Residence, Harbour Heights, City Centre their peers. However, we believe this may year-on-year price drop of 8.3% whereas Towers and Amwaj Gateway are handed lead to a rise in tenants looking for extra mid-end villas decreased the least by 0.5% over.
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