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Landscape Conservation Forecasting Report to the Powell Ranger District, Dixie National Forest, USDA Forest Service September 2010

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Landscape Conservation Forecasting Report to the Powell Ranger District, Dixie National Forest, USDA Forest Service September 2010 Landscape Conservation Forecasting Report to the Powell Ranger District, Dixie National Forest, USDA Forest Service September 2010 Western margin of the Paunsaugunt Plateau, © Joel S. Tuhy, 1998. By Joel Tuhy, Louis Provencher, and Greg Low The Nature Conservancy Moab, Utah and Reno, Nevada Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................. 1 Process and Methods ............................................................................................................... 1 Key Findings ............................................................................................................................ 4 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 6 Background .............................................................................................................................. 6 Project Area ............................................................................................................................. 7 Objectives ................................................................................................................................. 9 Process and Methods .............................................................................................. 10 Vegetation Mapping ............................................................................................................... 11 Mapping Biophysical Settings and S-Classes .................................................................. 11 Biophysical Setting Descriptions and Natural Range of Variability (NRV) ................... 13 Assessment of Current Ecological Condition – Calculating Ecological Departure ............. 14 Refinement of Predictive Ecological Models ......................................................................... 15 Core Reference Models and Descriptions........................................................................ 16 Management Models ........................................................................................................ 16 High-Risk Vegetation Classes ......................................................................................... 17 Accounting for Variability in Disturbances and Climate ................................................ 17 Fire Activity ............................................................................................................... 18 Upland Variability ..................................................................................................... 18 Riparian Variability ................................................................................................... 19 Assessment of Future Ecological Condition – Minimum Management ................................. 22 Assessment of Future Ecological Condition – Alternative Management Strategies ............. 23 Objectives ........................................................................................................................ 24 Management Strategies .................................................................................................... 24 Management Scenarios .................................................................................................... 25 Computer Simulations and Reporting Variables ............................................................. 25 Return On Investment (ROI) Analysis.................................................................................... 26 Findings .................................................................................................................. 28 Current Ecological Condition................................................................................................ 28 Ecological Departure ....................................................................................................... 28 High-Risk Vegetation Classes ......................................................................................... 30 Predicted Future Ecological Condition – Minimum Management ........................................ 32 Ecological Departure ....................................................................................................... 32 High-Risk Vegetation Classes ......................................................................................... 33 Prioritizing Actions for Implementation: Return-on-Investment ........................................... 33 Management Strategies and Scenarios .................................................................. 37 Introduction............................................................................................................................ 37 Ponderosa Pine Ecological System ....................................................................................... 38 i Management Objectives................................................................................................... 38 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 39 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 39 Aspen–Spruce-Fir Ecological System .................................................................................... 40 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 40 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 41 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 41 Aspen–Mixed Conifer Ecological System .............................................................................. 42 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 42 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 43 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 43 Mixed Conifer Ecological System .......................................................................................... 44 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 44 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 44 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 45 Black/Low Sagebrush Ecological System .............................................................................. 46 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 46 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 46 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 47 Wyoming/Basin Big Sagebrush Ecological System ............................................................... 48 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 48 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 49 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 49 Montane Sagebrush Steppe Ecological System ..................................................................... 50 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 50 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 50 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 51 Montane-Subalpine Riparian Ecological System .................................................................. 52 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 52 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 53 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 53 Gambel Oak–Mixed Mountain Brush Ecological System ...................................................... 54 Management Objectives................................................................................................... 54 Management Strategies and Costs ................................................................................... 54 Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 55 Summary of Management Scenarios ...................................................................................... 56 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................
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