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Demographic Trends, New PRIZM Segmentation and 2020 Data Update Information

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Demographic Trends, New PRIZM Segmentation and 2020 Data Update Information Demographic Trends, New PRIZM Segmentation and 2020 Data Update Information Environics Analytics @EnvironicsA ©2020 Environics Analytics Today’s Presenters Sandra James Danny Heuman Peter Pavlakidis Vice President, Chief Analytics Officer Vice President, Data Development Data Product Management 2 ©2020 Environics Analytics Demographic Trends in Canada ©2020 Environics Analytics Demographic Trends Topics • Population Trends in Canada • Provincial and Regional Trends • Mid-Sized Cities • Millennials and PRIZM • Economic Outlook 4 ©2020 Environics Analytics Population Trends ©2020 Environics Analytics Population Trends in Canada 1.60% ESTIMATES PROJECTIONS 40,000 1.20% 30,000 0.80% 20,000 0.40% 10,000 - 0.00% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Population Population Change 6 ©2020 Environics Analytics Natural Increase Declining 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% Births Deaths Natural Increase 7 ©2020 Environics Analytics Canada Fastest Growing G7 Country 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Canada United States of United Kingdom France Germany Italy Japan -1.0% America -2.0% -3.0% 2020-2025 2025-2030 -4.0% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics, 2019 8 ©2020 Environics Analytics Provincial and Regional Trends ©2020 Environics Analytics 5- and 10-Year Population Changes: Provinces 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Territories 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 10 ©2020 Environics Analytics Atlantic: PEI Saw Highest Growth 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Atlantic Newfoundland and Labrador PEI Nova Scotia New Brunswick -2.0% 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 11 ©2020 Environics Analytics Atlantic: Older Population PEI Nova Scotia NFLD New Brunswick Canada 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Ages 65+ Ages 0-14 12 ©2020 Environics Analytics Central Provinces: Ontario & Quebec 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Canada Quebec Ontario 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 13 ©2020 Environics Analytics Western Provinces 10.0% 9.0% 8.7% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 5.8% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Canada Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 14 ©2020 Environics Analytics 5-Year Population Growth: CMAs 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Saskatoon Regina Edmonton Calgary Abbotsford - Barrie Oshawa Toronto Winnipeg Kelowna Halifax Guelph Vancouver Ottawa - Victoria Mission Gatineau 2020-2025 15 ©2020 Environics Analytics 5-Year Population Growth: Growth in West 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Saskatoon Regina Edmonton Calgary Abbotsford - Barrie Oshawa Toronto Winnipeg Kelowna Halifax Guelph Vancouver Ottawa - Victoria Mission Gatineau Saskatoon Regina Edmonton Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Barrie Oshawa Toronto Winnipeg Kelowna Halifax Guelph Vancouver Ottawa - Gatineau Victoria 16 ©2020 Environics Analytics 5-Year Population Growth: Mid-Sized Cities 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Saskatoon Regina Edmonton Calgary Abbotsford - Barrie Oshawa Toronto Winnipeg Kelowna Halifax Guelph Vancouver Ottawa - Victoria Mission Gatineau Saskatoon Regina Edmonton Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Barrie Oshawa Toronto Winnipeg Kelowna Halifax Guelph Vancouver Ottawa - Gatineau Victoria 17 ©2020 Environics Analytics Visible Minorities in Mid-Sized Cities % Visible Minority Toronto Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Abbotsford - Mission Winnipeg Ottawa - Gatineau Regina Saskatoon Oshawa Guelph Victoria Halifax Barrie Kelowna 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 18 ©2020 Environics Analytics Diversity in Medium Sized Cities South Asians in Regina Filipinos in Saskatoon Chinese in Victoria 19 ©2020 Environics Analytics Millennials and PRIZM ©2020 Environics Analytics Millennials Gen Z Millenials Gen X Boomers Silent Generation 21 ©2020 Environics Analytics Canada’s Millennials: PRIZM 22 ©2020 Environics Analytics Canada’s Millennials: PRIZM INCOMES $124,418 $109,922 $91,040 DWELLING TYPE Apartments Low Rise Apt/Semi/Duplex Apartments EDUCATION University University University Gourmet Cooking Bird Watching Health Clubs LEISURE Yoga/Pilates Ice Skating Gourmet Cooking Jazz Concerts Live Theatre Hockey Games 23 ©2020 Environics Analytics Canada’s Economy 24 ©2020 Environics Analytics 25 -3% -2% -1% National HouseholdTrends Income 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2007 2008 2009 Nominal Household 2010 2011 2012 2013 Income 2014 2015 ©2020 Environics Analytics ©2020 Environics 2016 2017 Income Household Real 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5-Year Employment Changes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Canada BC AB SK MB ON QC Atlantic Territories 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Toronto Montréal Vancouver Calgary Ottawa Edmonton Winnipeg St. John's 2015 2020 2025 2030 26 ©2020 Environics Analytics Class of Worker 2020 Highlights 100% 90% 15% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 85% 30% 20% 10% 0% Urban Urban Fringe Suburban Town Rural Employee Self-employed Employee Self-employed 27 ©2020 Environics Analytics New PRIZM Segmentation System ©2020 Environics Analytics A Fresh Perspective 29 ©2020 Environics Analytics Why a Rebuild for 2020? Canada continues to change and evolve Significant changes in neighbourhoods generally require updating every 10 years 30 ©2020 Environics Analytics PRIZM at a Glance 67 14 19 750,000+ Unique Segments Francophone Segments Diverse Segments Postal Codes in Canada Socio Economic Status Segment Name Indicator (SESI) Segment Picture Social Group Lifestage Group 31 ©2020 Environics Analytics Some Questions It Helps Answer Which PRIZM segments are found within my What are the best channels to reach different trade area? subsets of consumers or citizens? Who are my best customers? Where How has the PRIZM profile of my customers do I have new and emerging changed pre versus post-COVID-19? opportunities? 32 ©2020 Environics Analytics Getting it Right: Building PRIZM from the ground up ©2020 Environics Analytics Great Data Make a Great System DEMOGRAPHIC Psychographic Shopping Leisure FINANCIAL Geographic Media Motivators 34 ©2020 Environics Analytics Rigorous Development Methodology Exhaustive review of available data Evaluate, adjust Select themes and and repeat variables Create maps and Develop and reports assign weights Use clustering algorithms 35 ©2020 Environics Analytics Achieving the Best Solution Choosing data and K-medians clustering Run algorithm thousands assigning weights algorithm of times 36 ©2020 Environics Analytics Bringing Segments to Life: The Narrative 11 MODERN SUBURBIA Multi-ethnic younger and middle-aged suburbanites WHO THEY ARE With one of the highest percentages of suburban households, Modern Suburbia is a magnet for younger and middle-aged, diverse families with young children. Many of these acculturated households contain first- and second-generation Canadians from Asia and South Asia who arrived in their 20s and 30s and have recently moved to new suburbs near large cities like Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa and Vancouver. More than half the population identify as visible minorities: More than twice the national average identify as Asian, and more than three times the average identify as South Asian. With their university and college educations, they earn upper-middle-class incomes from a wide range of jobs that afford them new single-family, semi-detached or row houses. And few segments are more mobile: the number of residents who have moved in the last five years is nearly 70 percent above average. Modern Suburbia members have crafted active lifestyles for their relatively large families and participate in many team sports, including basketball and hockey. For a splurge, they head to kid-friendly venues such as amusement parks, zoos and aquariums, admitting that Attraction for Crowds is among their strongest values. ©2020 Environics Analytics Bringing Segments to Life: The Imagery The members of Savvy Seniors are pleased with their country Members have high rates for visiting historical sites in Quebec and their accomplishments. They believe Canada should play a attending comedy clubs, auto shows and dinner theatres; their id strong role in the world (National Pride) and that the country a splurge is going to a casino or a spa. They also like eating out offers opportunities for anyone to succeed if they try hard cream and breakfast style restaurants. But these middle-aged and enough (North American Dream). Many are confident that they Quebecois are money conscious: while they’ve been buildi can control the direction of their lives (Personal Control), and moderate financial cushion, at the same time they’re carrying se they’re comfortable with a less prescribed way of life (Rejection loans. In their homes, mainstream media is their major sour of Orderliness). Although they’ve spent most of their lives in entertainment. This group scores high for TV game shows, prime Canada, they still seek to learn from other cultures and dramas, local news and late night talk shows. They like to listen to incorporate their influences in their daily life (Culture contemporary and comedy shows on the radio. And Vie au V Sampling). With their solid incomes, they enjoy making makes a strong market for newspapers and magazines covering purchases in areas of particular interest (Consumptivity), fashion and gardening. They especially if those products and services carry a well-known These households are health conscious and enjoy jogging, taking brand name and help them look good and dress in a respectful, Pilates classes, eating organic fruits and vegetables, and drinking appropriate manner (Importance of Brand, Concern for herbal tea. But the focus for most families is their kids; they spend Appearance, Propriety).
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