1 Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus: Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound 2 population estimates and perceptions 3 4 Ehsan M. Moqanaki a,*, José Jiménez b, Staffan Bensch c,†, José Vicente López-Bao d,† 5 6 a Animal Ecology Programme, Department of Biology, Lund University, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden. 7 b Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (CSIC/UCLM/JCCM), Ronda de Toledo s/n.13071, 8 Ciudad Real, Spain. 9 c Department of Biology, Ecology Building, Lund University, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden. 10 d Research Unit of Biodiversity (UO/CSIC/PA), Oviedo University, 33600 Mieres, Spain. 11 12 † Co-senior author. 13 14 * Corresponding author: 15 Present address: Iranian Cheetah Society, P.O. Box 14155-8549, Tehran, Iran. E-mail address: 16
[email protected] (E. M. Moqanaki). 1 17 Abstract 18 Lack of reliable data or non-scientific incentives for biased approaches make managers to exclusively 19 rely on experiential knowledge, opinions or perceptions of the status of species, usually derived from 20 personnel belonging to natural resource management agencies. The reliability of this source of 21 information to contribute to the decision-making processes remains doubtful, and largely untested. 22 We approached this challenging question, common for wildlife monitoring programs in developing 23 countries, using a population of Asian brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Iranian Caucasus as case 24 study. We conducted a noninvasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study to estimate bear 25 density across an 800-km2 core protected area, and compared our estimates of bear abundance with 26 local rangers’ perceptions collated through interview surveys.