Is the Energy Crisis Real'l

_The United States faces a serious For an upcoming report evaluat­ and continuing energy problem ing the Department of Energy's which has provoked intense debate. existing and planned residential Few will deny that the age of cheap; energy conservation outreach. pro­ "easy" oil has drawn to a close. Im­ grams, 2 GAO sought to determine ports from the Middle East are vul­ public opinion on the overall energy nerable, and domestic production situation since 1977, and review the is steadily declining. research on what motivates people At the present, there is no con­ to conserve. Specific issues were sensus on which fuel can and • public awareness or perception Lisa Shames should replace oil. The use of nu­ of the energy situation, Ms Shames Is a management analyst in the clear power is steeped in contro­ • factors which persuade or moti­ Energy and Minerals D1v1slon She received versy. The proven reserves of gas vate the public to conserve, and her AB degree in pol1tIcal science from have been falling off. Coal is abun­ Columbia University in 1977 and her dant, but there are potential envi­ • conservation measures already master's degree in pubhc admInistrat1on ronmental risks and practical prob­ taken. from Syracuse University In 1978 She lems in mining and transporting the We believed that these considera­ 10Ined GAO that year on the graduate co-op necessary quantities. Among un­ tions contribute to the individual's program conventional sources, solar energy decision to adopt or reject conser­ is impeded by economic and insti­ vation as a permanent way of life. tutional barriers, and synthetic It should be noted at the outset fuels will not be available in signifi­ that there are various Influences cant quantities until the end of the affecting an individual's decision to decade. choose conservation. Some are Most likely the projected energy general (prevailing local fuel prices), policy will develop into a mixed while others are more personal (the strategy to meet our future energy effect of higher fuel costs on one's needs. One component of that mix, heating bills). Social values also and one that offers immediate affect a person's decision. Conser­ opportunities, is conservation. vation Is an "apple pie" concept; that is, few people rejec}: It as socially unacceptable. Yet, despite Conservation the verbal enthusiasm for conserva­ tion, there is a wide variation be­ Conservation, or the reduction of tween what people say and what energy use and Its improved effici­ they actually do to save energy. It is ency, is receiving growing recogni­ difficult to determine the relative tion as an energy alternative. The weights of these variables in any second National Energy Pian, is­ given survey, but they must be rec­ sued in May 1979, stated that "con­ ognized nevertheless: servation continues to offer the greatest prospect of reducing de­ Publie Pereeption ol pendence on unstable imports, reducing energy costs, and meeting the Energy Situation environmental goals." The Harvard Business School estimates that a Effective policy implementation serious commitment to conserva­ requires public acceptance, and the tion could "supply" up to 40 percent level of that acceptance Is, in part, of the country's energy with the related to the public's belief that the same standard of llving. 1 problem is serious, that the prob­ Residential conservation involves lem will affect them personally, and millions of Individual decisionmak­ that a new policy Is necessary to ers representing the most decen­ solve the problem. For this reason, tralized energy-consuming sector. ··it Is important to examine how the Their attitudes and behavior regard­ public perceives the energy situa­ ing conservation are critical to any tion. successful effort in encouraging Prior to the Arab oil embargo, the public to adopt a more energy­ energy was virtually absent from efficient lifestyle. the public concern, but it is now a GAO Review/Winter 1981 33 Is the Energy Crisis Real?

national problem. According to the Gallup poll, since 1977, over four­ fifths of the American public think that the current national energy problem is "very" or "fairly" serious rather than "not at all" serious. Fur­ thermore, the public Is not very optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. energy situation. In Aprll 1979, tliree out of four persons polled by the Opinion Research Corporation said the energy situation would re­ main serious over the next year. However, when ranked with other problems as the most important problem facing the country, energy received low-level, but consistent, concern. It has generally been over­ shadowed by the economy, especl­ al ly Inflation and unemployment. But significant peaks of interest In energy have occurred when there are dramatic reminders. Most re­ cently, during the 1979 gasoline shortage, more people named ener­ gy (38%) than inflation (28%) as the nation's most Important prob­ lem. 3 But as the lines at the gas stations shortened, so did the public interest in energy. Apparent­ ly, ;'the public does not recognize therelatlonshlp between the energy situation and the economy.- The Shortage Reality

Despite gas shortages and other dramatic reminders,.Americans still doubt there is a "real" oll shortage stemming froo, a genuine depletion of resources.__:.. According to the Gallup Poll, as of mid-1979, four In ten people believed that the U.S. produces enough oil to meet Its energy needs. The proportion that believes we are oll self-sufficient Is higher now that in either 1977 or 1978. On the other hand, 46 percent are aware that the country must import some oll, although the majority does not know what per­ centage of oil comes from abroad. Several surveys show that since 1977, one out of two people feel that the fuel shortage is a hoax. 4 This skepticism intensified during the summer of 1979, when most ·-people believed the gasoline short­ age was deliberately brought about by the oil companies to increase prices. These opinions underscore the public's lack of understanding and knowledge of the energy situation. 34 GAO Review/Winter 1981 Is the Energy Crisis Real?

The predominant view-that the America's faith that technological with personal, dally concerns. A gasoline and oil shortages have discoveries, or simply "yankee in­ consumer may be unfamiliar with been contrived-is primarily a re­ genuity" will solve the energy Btu's or kilowatt hours, but virtually sult of mixed messages from Gov­ problem:'rhls belief In a technolog­ everyone relates to those same ernment and industry about short­ ical solution removes the perceived savings in dollars and cents. ages and then gluts. Conservation need to act individually. The pub­ Finally, easily understood Infor­ is more likely to occur If and when lic's preference for increased energy mation on comparative economics the energy problem becomes "real" production rather than conservation is necessary. People often overes­ to Individual consumers. This may ill\Jstrates this faith in technology. timate the cost and underestimate happen when the public appreciates . Consumers will conserve only .ff the benefits of Improving the energy the true nature of the energy tfiey know why they should, and efficiency of the home. Consumers situation. they will make personal sacrifices minimize the initial capital cost be­ only If they are sure the need is cause they do not know that the Who Is Responsible~ genuine and the burden is felt more expensive Item could save equally. During the gasoline short­ more money over time. ,. When asked who or what Is age In the summer of 1979, several responsible for the energy situa­ surveys 1 show that three-quarters Who Is Credible? tion, the American people have of the public would tolerate or even consistently blamed both the Amer­ willingly cut back on driving If they Before the public can accept and ican oil companies and the Middle were convinced that the shortage use practical energy Information, East oil-producing countries: How­ was real or that it would reduce de­ the source of that information must ever, most Americans acknowledge pendence on foreign oil. be regarded as credible and trust­ worthy. Most research Indicates their own wasteful use of energy as _ Americans have cultural norms a reason for the current situation. s that the Federal Government and which are contrary to conservation. large oil companies are generally But most Americans are also ready Materialism Is dominant, and suc­ to assume some responsibility for not trusted by consumers. This is cess Is defined In terms of conspic­ not surprising when we note the correcting it. In a poll for the Al­ uous consumption. In the past, the liance to Save Energy, three­ prevailing skepticism on the au­ lack of social pressure to conserve thenticity of the energy situation. quarters of the population now has contributed to consumers' fall• believe that Individual efforts to Among those considered as reli­ ure to take conservation actions. able sources are familiar institu• conserve energy will have "a great Similarly, conflicts exist between deal" or "a fair amount" of impact tlons and entities with a recognized conservafion objectives and other impartiality. They Include State and on the nation's energy consump­ desires, such as comfort and con­ local government units, local or­ tion. Most feel that personal con­ venience·.. People want to save ganizations, consumer and environ­ servation can contribute to this ef­ energy and be comfortable at the fort. Further, a majority of Ameri­ same time. Research conducted by mental groups, and universities. cans feel that current energy con­ Princeton University suggested that These entities are preferred because they are independent of any vested sumption, if not curtailed, will lead homeowners' attitudes about ther­ interest in the energy situation. Bui to severe cutbacks In lifestyles. mal comfort were the first and only technical expertise also appears to consistent predictor of their actual 8 be Important in the public mind. Motivation To consumption. For example, when seeking Insula­ Conserve Consumers prefer those conser­ tion information, people told the vation practices which require the Wisconsin Energy Extension Ser­ _ People who are aware that their least inconvenience and the least vice that they trusted first the behavior influences the amount of change In lifestyle. Americans have utilities and then government, but energy t~ey use are more likely to taken "one-time" energy conserva­ least of all the insulation retail conserve. Without such informed tion actions, such as buying a stores. awareness, it Is difficult to estab­ small, fuel-efficient car, but the lish favorable attitudes toward ener­ practices which must be maintained Mass Media vs. gy conservation. over time, especially those that Personal Cont.aet A large number of Americans lack Involve discomfort and inconven­ knowledge about the energy situa­ ience, are practiced less. Some energy conservation pro­ tion and what they as Individuals Jv1oney is the most effective In­ grams conducted so far have used can specifically do about It. For centive to conserve. It has been mass media In attempts to persuade example, in one survey, 6 half of the suggested that the money-saving the public to conserve. However, people thought that one must turn aspects of conservation should be most research Indicates that such down the thermostat 5° F. or more emphasized over the benefits of an approach has little or no Influ­ tc save energy and did not know conservation tor its own sake, ence on behavior. Persuasion does that turning down the temperature because people are more inclined to not appear to be adequate by Itself even 1 ° or 2° F. would help con­ save energy If the practice will save as a means of Increasing conser­ serve energy. them money. By addressing the vation. At best, public persuasion The public's understanding of the energy problem In terms of costs to programs can only develop concern overait energy situation is important the consumer, it Is possible to or build a climate of favorable too. Complacency may rest on connect the conservation message opinion. GAO Review/Winter 1981 35 Is the Energy Crisis Real?

For the most part, mass media means of planning alternative stra­ messages are received primarily by tegies which will affect those reac­ people who are already in agree­ tions and encourage greater conser­ ment with them, and are generally vation efforts among the public. ignored by those who are Indiffer­ However, there are three principal ent or opposed to them. In fact, it factors In the success of conser­ has been suggested that mass vation: the individual must first ac­ media encourages passivity and un­ knowledge that there is an energy involvement because it stresses problem; second, the problem must institutions rather than individuals be perceived as a serious one; and as principal actors. It was found third, the Individual must be aware that those who rely on mass media of personal actions one can take to regarded themselves as less in­ alleviate the problem. Conservation formed, considered issues less ser­ efforts depend entirely upon the iously, and took fewer personal public perception that the energy actions to reach solutions. 9 crisis is indeed real. Usually mass media relates a general message, whereas more Conservation Aetions useful information must apply to a particular household. People prefer Because conservation is an "ap­ specific, on-site advice on how to ple pie" concept and because con­ conserve energy. Also, a personal servation is now socially accept­ impact must be perceived. Personal able. and because people want to Interaction rather than mass com­ show their behavior in the best pos­ munication better Influences atti­ sible light, there may be some tudes. A change in habits is

' Robert Slabaugh and Daniel Yergin, Shortage ..?" CBS News and New York • Kenneth Nov1c and Peter Sandman, eds., Energy Future Report of the Times (August 1977 and June 1979). "How Use of Mass Media Affects Views Energy Pro1ect at the Harvard Business • Jeffrey Millstein, How Consumers Feel on Solutions to Environmental School (New York· Random House. About Energy (Department of Energy. Problems," Journalism Quarterly 1979). p. 136 Office of Conservation and Solar Ap­ (Autumn 1974), p. 448 2 EMD report expected In January 1981 phcat1ons, June 1977), p. 4 •• Becker, et al., p. 19. ' American Attitudes Toward Energy Con­ 7 Information obtained from NBC servation, prepared for Alliance To Save News/Associated Press, June 1979, and " See "Poll Results," NBC News (March Energy by Cambridge Reports, Inc. CBS News/New York Times, July 1979 21, 1979), p 3, and "American Attitudes (July/August 1979), p 8. ' Lawrence Becker, Clive Seligman, and on Conservation and Government Pro­ ' Al Richman, "The Polls. Public Attitudes John M. Darley, Psychological Strat­ grams To Encourage More Eff1C1ent Toward the Energy Cns1s," Public Opm• egies To Reduce Energy Consumption· Energy Use," prepared for Union Car• Ion Quarterly (1979), p 577. Pro1ect Summary Report (Princeton bide Corporation by Roger Seasonwein ' "Who or What Is Responsible for the 011 University, 1979), p 9 Associates, Inc (November 1979), p. 9. 36 GAO Review/Winter 1981