WHERE DO WE GO from HERE? Half a Century After Its Founding, Asean Faces Internal Fault Lines

Duterte’s vision for Asean Beijing’s Chinese charm o ensive MIT’s Andrew McAfee on the future of jobs

April – May 2017 MCI (P) 148/08/2016

Asean@50: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? Half a century after its founding, Asean faces internal fault lines. But while there are potential obstacles ahead, there is also much to cheer.

Letter from the Editor-in-Chief Choppy waters as Asean turns 50 and there’s disruption all round

Dear readers, of Technology research scientist Andrew McAfee on the future of jobs, and a sean turns 50 in a few months’ commentary by our Opinion Editor Chua time. Mui Hoong on the need to attend to the That’s a major milestone in well-being of citizens, amid mounting the life of a person, organisa- A job insecurity. tion or nation. The Straits Times has been covering Hence, we thought it would be a good developments in Singapore and around time to pause and reflect on how the Asia since 1845. Our network of much-underrated regional grouping has correspondents and contributors provides fared over the years. insights and an insider’s view of these In this edition, we turn our attention events. And our ST Asia Report is a to the group, which has grown from five regular publication which compiles some members in 1967 to 10 now, and whose of our best work, which is also available influence goes beyond. online at www.straitstimes.com In our cover story, our Associate A PDF version of the magazine is Editor Ravi Velloor ponders what lies also available online to subscribers of ahead for Asean, while our Philippine The Straits Times. Correspondent Raul Dancel shares In this issue, you will find: Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s • A special report by our Senior Writer vision for Asean, which the Philippines Cheong Suk-Wai on international relations will chair this anniversary year. Lee Kuan scholar Leo Suryadinata’s new book The Yew School of Public Policy Dean Kishore Rise of China and The Chinese Overseas Mahbubani also shares his insight on how and an interview with pre-eminent scholar best to understand Asean. Wang Gungwu on the issue. Another highlight of this issue is • A feature on Singapore’s quest for our report on the disruption that is a robust water supply by our journalist unfolding all round in the face of rapid Lin Yangchen. and relentless technological change. • A look at Changi Airport’s effort to This was the topic we focused on build Jewel, a multi-storey retail complex, in this year’s Straits Times Education slated to open in 2019. Forum, organised in partnership with • A special feature by our Regional the Singapore Management University Correspondent Tan Hui Yee on Thailand’s (SMU) in March, on the topic of what daughters of Buddhism the future of jobs might look like. We hope you will enjoy this publication SMU board of trustees chairman and will return to The Straits Times across Ho Kwon Ping delivered a thought – our various platforms. provoking opening address – an excerpt Why? To put it starkly and simply: of which we have reproduced on page You need to know Asia. We do. 24 – in which he challenged universities to go beyond simply repeating the mantra Best regards that the future is too uncertain to predict which jobs will disappear. A lively debate followed, which set me thinking, and I set out my reflections on the discussion in a Thinking Aloud Warren Fernandez column, which can be found on page 22. Editor-in-Chief Also part of this package is our Senior The Straits Times Education Correspondent Sandra Davie’s & SPH’s English, Malay and interview with Massachusetts Institute Tamil Media Group 1 Duterte’s vision for Asean Beijing’s Chinese charm o ensive MIT’s Andrew McAfee on the future of jobs

April – May 2017 MCI (P) 148/08/2016

Asean@50: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? Half a century after its Contents founding, Asean faces internal fault lines. But while there are potential obstacles ahead, there is also much to cheer. 3 Asean: The next 50 years

5 Seven interesting things about Asean Asia Report April – May 2017 6 Duterte’s Asean vision

Warren Fernandez 8 How fear, luck and golf brought Asean together Editor-in-Chief Alvin Tay 10 Beijing’s Chinese charm offensive: Kinship or chimera? Managing Editor

Tan Ooi Boon 12 A challenge to test one’s loyalty Senior Vice-President (Business Development) 14 The fake news conundrum Eugene Leow Head, Digital Strategy 16 Xiongan: China’s new special economic zone Irene Ngoo Vice-President 17 Saudi King’s mega deals with Asia

Shefali Rekhi 18 Next on the anvil Editor Copy Desk 20 A hopeful spring for Sino-US ties? & Daring to dream big despite small size Sim Mui Hoon Chief Sub-editor 22 Best route to the future is the one you chart yourself Design Peter Williams 24 Disruptive change and the Singapore dilemma Art Editor

Anil Kumar 26 Race with machines, not against them Graphic Artist

Manny Francisco 28 Future economy needs future ready social safety net Cover Illustration 30 Keeping the nation’s taps flowing Editorial research Nadia Chevroulet 32 Changi’s Jewel shaping up well for sparkling start in 2019 Benjamin Chua Circulation 34 Thailand’s unrecognised daughters of Buddhism Eric Ng Head, Circulation Marketing 36 Luxury on wheels Tommy Ong Senior Manager (Circulation)

Reach out to us: Global Outlook Forum Leong Lin Choo Senior Manager We welcome your feedback and views [email protected] Letters can be sent to [email protected] Circulation & subscription: Kitty Tan Senior Manager (Circulation) Published by [email protected] The Straits Times, Singapore Press Holdings

For advertising enquiries: Printed by Sharon Lim Ling KHL Printing Co Pte Ltd Manager (Business Development) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or [email protected] in part without written permission from the publisher. Cover Story

Ravi Velloor Associate Editor, The Straits Times Asean: The next 50 years

Religious extremism is just one problem the grouping faces, but on balance, the future is bright

hese days, with Britain poised to exit the European Union, and fear that other nations may take a cue from its go-it-alone ways, the EU Tis not the preferred template for regional integration. Yet it cannot be denied that this has been the most successful regional organisation in modern history, even though the 28-member union doesn’t yet include Ukraine, the biggest European nation whose landmass is slashed tariffs and so on has been in entirely on the Continent. the low hanging fruit. Serious matters Who’s in second place as a model such as harmonisation of standards, free for regional integration? Asean, surely. movement of labour, and the financial As a body set up at the height of industry’s access to markets in the the Cold War, meant to ensure that region remain work in progress. Air Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, carriers within the 10-nation grouping Malaysia and Singapore weren’t do not fly the Asean flag, even as their dominoes that could be knocked down liveries announce their allegiance to Star by Communism’s iron ball, it has evolved Alliance, OneWorld or other aviation spectacularly. From five members at its groupings. A shared visa policy, as in the founding in 1967 to six in 1984 when Schengen countries, would give a boost Brunei signed on, and eventually ten as ST ILLUSTRATION: MANNY FRANCISCO to inter-regional travel and tourism. But Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and finally that is a long way off. Indeed, Asean Myanmar, came on board, the group centre”. Asean, she went on to say, “has itself has moderated its ambitions for has only expanded. an influence throughout Asia that is not an economic union; from aspirations And it’s not done growing: Timor always well-understood”. of a single market and production base, Leste could be next on board. While Fifty years after its founding as a the talk, increasingly, is of a ‘highly once-role model the EU is straining at political bloc that would quickly also integrated economy’. the seams, Asean’s hemlines are getting turn its attention to economic relations, broader. What’s more, every major it is interesting to ponder what lies The creation of the Asean power on earth, from the United States ahead for Asean. In that there is as much Economic Community is to Russia and Australia, sees value in to cheer as to ponder. no doubt a remarkable snuggling up closer to this outfit, the The creation of the Asean Economic achievement, especially reason they make it a point to attend the Community is no doubt a remarkable East Asia Summit held on the sidelines achievement, especially given the given the varying levels of of Asean’s annual gathering of leaders. varying levels of development in the development in the region, Indeed, people from outside the region, from first-world Singapore to from first-world Singapore region sometimes tend to see its least developed nations such as Laos. to least developed nations significance more clearly than those This has helped Asean become a such as Laos. This has within. major manufacturing and investment helped Asean become a In January, in a major foreign policy destination. Indeed, foreign direct major manufacturing and speech in the US, Australian foreign investment inflows to Asean have investment destination. minister Julie Bishop declared Asean outpaced flows to China since 2013. Indeed, FDI inflows to not only “the geographic centre of the Yet, it cannot be denied that most Asean has outpaced flows Indo-Pacific (but) also its diplomatic of the economic integration through to China since 2013.

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Militant Islam is fracturing societies and weighing on regional ties. Buddhist majority states are under scrutiny over their treatment of Muslim minorities. Investors are aware that much of this is driven by politics, and make allowances for it. At the same time, any indication that things are going too far will raise concern, and influence their decisions. There’s no question that on balance, Asean’s future is undoubtedly bright. Incomes are steadily expanding. According to the United Nations Population Division, its population will increase from 633 million in 2015 to 717 million in 2030 and 741 Filipino students wave flags during an event to raise awareness about Asean in Cebu. PHOTO: EPA million in 2035. With the exception of Singapore, every Asean state has miles Politically, Asean could be said to in the US has added legitimacy to to go before completing its urbanisation have made haste slowly. More and power elites in the big markets of process – thus ensuring a long pipeline more nations in the group, including Asia who insist that more be done on for headline growth. It helps too that the largest, Indonesia, are steadily their home territories by companies most of Asean has a young and vibrant building democratic societies after seeking to tap their markets. This works population and old-age support ratios initial decades spent defending “Asian against the concept of a grid system of are at still-healthy levels. According to values” to explain why they couldn’t manufacturing where primary goods, the consultancy firm McKinsey, almost have political liberalisation sooner. equipment parts and finished products 60 per cent of total Asean growth since The latest to join that fold is Myanmar, move easily back and forth between 1990 has come from productivity gains a nation of some 55 million people, nations. as sectors such as manufacturing, retail, which, following Indonesia’s lead, is Meanwhile, automation and roboti- telecommunications, and transportation looking for ways to keep its military in sation are adding scale and efficiency grow more efficient. Vietnam has the barracks. Some other Asean states to markets where labour costs were shown that industrial employment can still operate under strongmen or military once considered prohibitively high, de- still expand in the era of robotics and dictators. But the trend is clear, and for priving low-wage Asia of trickle down automation. now, seemingly irreversible, especially as investment important to find jobs for That said, much of what lies ahead the digital world democratises thought the millions entering the work force depends on how it manages a few tracks. and opportunity. every year. The first is for Asean nations to be able Beyond lie megatrends whose to grasp the sweeping changes in the influence is hard to map at this stage. Geopolitically, Asean is technology landscape and build skills The melting of the polar ice cap and the heading for a fraught to match the times. consequent opening of the Northern period as China’s increasing Second, it needs to turn its diversity Sea Route for container shipping could assertiveness in its – Indonesia is 90 per cent Muslim, potentially give a second wind to East neighbourhood fetches the Philippines is dominantly Roman Asian manufacturing to the detriment a response from Japan Catholic and Myanmar is mostly of South-east Asia, and its pole position and India, the strategic Buddhist, for instance – into advantage. in the fairways of global commerce and bookends of Asia. This can only be done by clamping down the waterway that hosts more than on extremism, ensuring the flintier edges US$5 trillion (S$7 trillion) of global Geopolitically, Asean is heading for of faith are dulled by deft handling. commerce. At the same time, new rail a fraught period as China’s increasing Third, by not pushing the pace connections to mainland China that assertiveness in its neighbourhood of political integration too quickly – are being planned or implemented add fetches a response from Japan and India, indeed, it may not even be possible – it healthy opportunities for many nations, the strategic bookends of Asia. is improving the chances of common particularly those in mainland Asean but In the past, Asean’s fault lines were roots going deeper. also peninsular ones such as Malaysia. reckoned to be between mainland states There is a final point, and that Meanwhile, Mr Narendra Modi’s and maritime ones such as Indonesia, is Indonesia. If Asean is indeed the rise as India’s leader and the likelihood Brunei and the Philippines. But China’s epicentre of the Asian continent, that he will hold power for a while, willingness to flex its muscle is proving Indonesia is the epicentre of Asean. have added to India’s allure. Foreign to be a strain on Asean unity. Some, Keeping Jakarta fully engaged in Asean investment in 2016 surged to US$46 like the Philippines under President and open to the world therefore is billion from US$28 billion the year Rodrigo Duterte and Cambodia under critical. An inward-looking Indonesia before and is accelerating. For Asean, Prime Minister Hun Sen, have caved makes for an orphaned Asean. India’s rise at a time when Chinese in. Others, such as Indonesia, are The last 50 years have shown Asean growth is moderating is therefore both nervously watching Beijing’s every members that the whole is greater than a huge opportunity and challenge. move and pondering how to balance the sum of their parts. They now need The big nations of Asia – China, the interests of feeding off China’s to convince themselves that in steady, India and Indonesia – are also fervently growth while staying independent of measured integration lies salvation. lengthening their domestic supply its strategic grasp. chains. Mr Donald Trump’s ascendancy New worry points are emerging too. [email protected] 

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Seven interesting things about Asean

sean is expected to experience robust economic growth throughout the 5. Asean is an exceptionally next decade, with some predicting it could overtake the European Union culturally diverse market within a generation. Whether or not that happens, there is consensus that Athe region will grow rapidly, both in terms of its economic might and its influence on world trade.

1. If Asean were a single country, it would be the seventh-largest economy in the world With a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion (S$3.49 trillion), the region is already an economic powerhouse and is set to grow to become the equivalent of the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2050.

If Asean were a single country, where would it rank compared to other countries?

Indonesia is home to the world’s largest Muslim population: almost 90 per cent of the nation’s people belong to the Islamic faith. The Philippines is more than 80 per cent Roman Catholic and Thailand is more than 95 per cent Buddhist. Asean is unique in bringing together such diverse nations into a single political and economic region. 6. Asean is unique in terms of biodiversity Although the region occupies only 3 per cent of the world’s total surface, 20 per cent of all known species live SOURCE: ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT 2014 deep in its mountains, jungles, rivers, 2. Asean is the fourth-largest exporting region in the world, trailing lakes and seas. only the European Union, North America and China/Hong Kong The region also contains seven of Asean countries account for 7 per cent of global exports, while trade with the the world’s 25 recognised biodiversity United States has risen 62 per cent since 2002. hotspots – biologically rich areas under The region is an important consumer of US goods, too. The average Asean greatest threat of destruction. consumer purchases nearly 1.75 times as many American goods per capita as the 7. Asean countries accounted for a average Chinese consumer, and nearly nine times as many as the average Indian quarter of global fish production consumer. 3. The number of consumer households in Asean is expected almost to double by 2025 Asean has dramatically outpaced the rest of the world on growth in GDP per capita since the late 1970s. Already some 67 million households in Asean countries are part of the “consuming class”, with incomes exceeding the level at which they can begin to make significant discretionary purchases. That number could almost double to 125 million households by 2025. 4. Asean is home to 227 of the world’s largest companies Back in 2006, Asean was home to the headquarters of 49 companies in the Forbes Global 2000. By 2013, that number had risen to 74. Of the world’s top 10 largest fish pro- Asean now includes 227 of the world’s ducers, four are from Asean – Indonesia, companies with more than US$1 billion in Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. revenues. Singapore is a standout, ranking fifth in the world for density of corporate SOURCE: WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM headquarters and first for foreign subsidiaries. PHOTOS: ST FILE

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Raul Dancel Philippines Correspondent, The Straits Times Duterte’s Asean vision The Philippine President hopes to help regional bloc realise promises of full economic integration

resident Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines may seem like everything an Asian diplomat is not. At times brash and often outlandish, Phe finds the rituals of diplomacy too rigid, even superficial. His mercurial, unpredictable streak has got everyone wondering: Is Asean, under his stewardship, up for a wild ride? The short answer: He isn’t planning any surprises; nothing provocative or unexpected, even as his own foreign policy, marked by a pivot to China, is unsettling the fulcrum on which the current regional security architecture PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: BRYANDT LYN balances. This is not to say Mr Duterte, 72, is Asean should not be made a “proxy” for mechanism to prevent conflicts in the not out to make a splash, especially as rivalries among the world’s superpowers. contentious South China Sea. this year marks Asean’s 50th anniversary. He said Mr Duterte believes Asean China’s claim to nearly all of this vital When he hands over the chairmanship should stay above the fray, even as it waterway has led to tensions with three of Asean to Singapore next year, he continues to engage the rest of the world Asean member states: the Philippines, hopes to have already bagged something on an equal footing. Asean has, after Vietnam and Brunei, which have their that has eluded Asean for over a decade: all, overwhelming leverage when it acts own claims. Taiwan is also a claimant. a binding deal with Beijing to keep the singularly, with an economy valued at Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique peace in the South China Sea that may, US$2.5 trillion (S$3.49 trillion) and a Manalo is hopeful Asean and China can in turn, help guarantee uninterrupted single market of 633 million. reach a deal at meetings set in Beijing prosperity across South-east Asia. Mr Duterte’s centrist leanings have in May, and that the framework can be Mr Duterte in January said he allayed concerns that he may take the signed by June. intended to build on the “enduring group with him in his ebullient slide to- This framework will likely spell out ties” that bind Asean, “affirm shared wards China and Russia, and alienate the broad statements reaffirming principles cooperations” and “secure Asean’s United States and Japan, sowing disagree- outlined 14 years ago in the “Declaration future”. He listed six themes: peace ments rather than building consensus. on the Conduct of Parties in the South and stability; maritime security and So far, two of the major meetings China Sea”, including an agreement to cooperation; inclusive, innovation-led held under the Philippines’ stewardship “exercise self-restraint” to prevent ac- growth; Asean’s resiliency; a people- of Asean – those of the region’s foreign tions that could “complicate or escalate oriented and people-centred Asean; and finance ministers – have been a disputes”. and Asean as a model of regionalism reflection of Mr Duterte’s directions: Its significance is that it marks the first and a global player. building on consensus, rather than big leap in years since Asean first set out He and his top aides have since been needling on unresolved conflicts, so to try and adopt a COC in 2002. That, elaborating on these points, beginning that the Asean Economic Community in turn, is seen as providing “a certain with where he intends to take Asean (AEC) can flourish. momentum, a certain confidence… by year’s end. The region’s foreign ministers are going into the really big challenge, which Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin now on the home stretch of their efforts is actually to settle the legally binding Lorenzana said Mr Duterte, in keeping to conclude a “framework” on a code COC”, said Singapore’s Foreign Minister with his tough-guy persona, believes of conduct (COC) meant to serve as a Vivian Balakrishnan.

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“We can’t control the agenda of US President Donald Trump, for the superpowers. But we do need to one, is proving to be a conundrum for make sure, to the best extent possible, Asean. He has withdrawn the US from that we maintain an oasis of peace and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade stability in this part of the world,” said deal, leaving the China-initiated Regional Dr Balakrishnan. Comprehensive Economic Partnership In Mr Duterte’s calculations, that (RCEP) as Asean’s option for now. is the key to unlocking Asean’s full Mr Duterte had criticised the TPP economic potential. as “restrictive” for a nation like the Sources inside his government say Philippines, as he backed RCEP. But that he has been leaning on Manila’s new position has been more in line with his rapprochement with Beijing to coax it own foreign policy than a consideration into negotiating with a more reasonable of what will be best for Asean. stance. His decision to set aside an Mr Trump has also instructed his international tribunal’s ruling striking administration to study the causes of down China’s claims to the South China US trade deficits and clamp down on Sea and to take it out of Asean’s agenda countries that abuse trade rules in two altogether, for instance, was seen as key executive orders he said would open When President Rodrigo Duterte hands over to breaking a long-running impasse the chairmanship of Asean to Singapore a new chapter for US workers and between Asean and China over items next year, he hopes to have already bagged businesses. to be included in the COC. a binding deal with Beijing to keep the Again, Mr Duterte has yet to respond peace in the South China Sea. Mr Duterte’s goal, some analysts say, PHOTO: REUTERS to that on behalf of Asean. is to level as much as possible of the Issues such as the TPP-RCEP divide speed bumps slowing the march to fully Investment president Eduardo Francisco. and Mr Trump’s brand of protectionism, realise the promises of Asean integration. It is the size that concerns many and Asean’s response to them, are likely Very little progress has been made banks. Mr Francisco said that even to spill over to Singapore’s chairmanship since the AEC kicked off on Dec 31, 2015. when combined, the Philippines’ three of Asean next year. An HSBC research note said intra- largest banks will still be smaller than For political analyst Richard Javad Asean trade had even contracted at most commercial banks in Malaysia. Heydarian at De La Salle University, Mr nearly the same rate as that of total “Why would they deal with Filipino Duterte’s “focus on areas of presumed Asean exports to the rest of the banks? They have Maybank and CIMB consensus”, such as concluding the COC world. Trade within the economic bloc (in Malaysia),” he said. framework and fighting terrorism and fell by 3.5 per cent in the first nine But Philippine Finance Secretary transnational crime, as well as thrashing months of last year since the AEC’s Carlos Dominguez believes Asean is out long-term economic goals, may not implementation, matching the 3.9 per ripe for an investment boom. be as uncontentious as he assumes. cent slump in regional exports in the “The AEC provides a strong market He has to realise, for instance, that same period. of 600 million people. Our 300 million- he cannot keep sweeping under the rug Banking integration has also been strong labour force is young, talented discussions on China’s massive land off to a slow start. and dynamic. Our governments are reclamation project in the South China In early April, the Philippines, Malay- convinced that globalisation is the Sea, said Mr Heydarian. sia and Thailand firmed up agreements way to progress. Our economies have At the meeting of foreign ministers to open up their banking sectors, in much headroom for rapid expansion, on the resort island of Boracay in line with the Asean Banking Integra- beginning from a massive infrastructure February, then Foreign Secretary tion Framework. build-up that will bring our region Perfecto Yasay was forced to express The target year is 2020, for a project increased efficiency,” he said. concerns from “two or three” Asean that began in 2014. It is still a long way off, Still, challenges lie ahead. states over Beijing’s efforts to militarise and there are a lot of loose ends to tie up. Asean deputy secretary-general Lim the South China Sea. Banks in the Philippines, for instance, Hong Hin said hopes for growth across Mr Duterte may also be missing out are taking a cautious approach. South-east Asia “must be viewed against on opportunities for greatness by being “All other banks are considering the backdrop of uncertain times, with placid. Even as he refuses to confront investing and expanding, but we’re the rise of populism and protectionism China, he can still begin the process also being careful… We always walk sentiment posing a challenging context of overhauling Asean’s notoriously before we run,” said BDO Capital & to the region’s integration agenda”. slow decision-making process where unanimity is a prerequisite for every China’s Liaoning joint action. aircraft carrier conducts a drill in He should, for instance, be proposing the South China a two-tiered process, where some Sea. Beijing’s decisions that do not directly involve claims in the vital waterway has all member states can be made via a led to tensions simple majority. with some Asean “He should be striving for something member states. PHOTO: REUTERS historical, instead of just being typical,” said Mr Heydarian.

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7 By Invitation

Kishore Mahbubani For The Straits Times How fear, luck and golf brought Asean together

Asean provides an important security umbrella for Singapore and the region. People, stop poking holes in this umbrella.

magine Singapore in December. The north-east monsoon is approaching. Heavy rains are coming. Someone has gifted you a strong umbrella. The rational Ithing to do would be to preserve and protect this umbrella. The irrational thing to do would be to poke holes in this umbrella. Yet, many Singaporeans today are doing this irrational thing. They have been gifted a wonderful geopolitical umbrella. It is called Asean. Instead of strengthening it, they are poking holes in it. And they are poking holes just as new geopolitical storms are coming to our region, in the form of enhanced US-China rivalry. Why are Singaporeans behaving irrationally? The simple answer is ignorance. Any simple survey would show that most Singaporeans know next to nothing about Asean. Many can’t recognise the Asean flag. ST ILLUSTRATION: MANNY FRANCISCO President of the Institute of Singapore Chartered Accountants Gerard Ee was from the usual jaundiced Anglo-Saxon three “M” words to understand Asean dead right when he said at a recent media coverage of Asean. are Miracle, Mystifying and Money. panel discussion that Singaporeans To combat this ignorance, a childhood should understand the region better. friend of mine, Jeffery Sng (with whom ASEAN MIRACLE Singaporeans, he said, “do not I grew up in Onan Road in the 1950s Why is Asean a miracle? First, understand the cultures and values of and 1960s) and I decided to publish a different people in the region that we book on Asean to coincide with Asean’s when it was born in 1967, everyone are trying to form a bond with, and we 50th anniversary on Aug 8 this year. It expected it to fail. Its two predecessors, might inadvertently end up making is called The Asean Miracle: A Catalyst ASA (Association of South-east Asia) enemies rather than friends. So I wish all For Peace, and it has been published by and Maphilindo (Malaya-Philippines- the schools would go back to teaching NUS Press this month. The goal of this Indonesia), died within two years. No the history of all the Asean countries article is to provide a flavour of the book. one dreamt in 1967 that Asean would so that we appreciate where they’re One simple way of understanding hit 50. But it has. coming from.” Asean is to apply the 3M formula. 3M Second, all the five founding members Even more sadly, the little that here does not refer to the Minnesotan had bilateral disputes with each other Singaporeans know about Asean comes manufacturer of sturdy products. The in 1967. Indonesia had confronted

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Malaysia. Singapore had just had a focus on doing the right thing for the perils. Our book documents many of bitter separation from Malaysia. The region. Indonesian leadership was key. these, especially the geopolitical perils. Philippines claimed Sabah from Malaysia Suharto wisely decided that the best But one peril that it faces can be solved and the south Thailand insurgency was way for Asean to grow was for Indonesia quite easily. This peril is lack of money. brewing on the Thai-Malaysia border. to take a back seat. It allowed smaller For reasons I still don’t fully understand, Third, the region was in turmoil. countries, like Malaysia and Singapore, the Asean Secretariat has been deprived Communist parties were active. The to play a stronger role. As our book of the resources that it needs to grow to Vietnam War was gaining momentum. documents, it was also Suharto who a healthy state. The Tet Offensive took place five months made the fateful decision that Indonesia To understand the scale of the after Asean’s birth. should join the rest of Asean in opposing problem, just compare the budgets of Fourth, South-east Asia is the most the Vietnamese invasion. If Indonesia the world’s most successful regional culturally diverse region on planet had vacillated, Asean would not have organisation, the European Union, with Earth. If you were looking for a place succeeded. In short, Asean avoided the budget of the world’s second-most to start regional cooperation, the last many potential disasters. It was lucky. successful regional organisation, Asean. place you would pick is South-east Asia. The third four-letter word will make The EU’s annual budget was €145.3 In short, there were many reasons why you laugh. It is golf. When I mention billion (S$219 billion) in 2015. Asean’s Asean should have failed. And I could the role of golf, many in the West think was US$19 million (S$26 million). give a few more. This is why Asean’s I am joking. Yet, I am dead serious. The EU budget is 8,000 times larger success is a true miracle. Multilateral negotiations are inherently than Asean’s. Yet, the combined gross messy. If you want to argue about texts domestic product of the EU is not 8,000 FEAR, NOT LOVE, of documents, you can go on for hours. times larger. It is only six times larger. BROUGHT ASEAN Yet, somehow, after a golf game with my Why is Asean deprived of resources? then Asean senior official counterparts The simple answer is that the total size TOGETHER in the 1990s, we would have a beer of the Asean budget is determined Yet, this miracle is also mystifying. No and reach agreements very quickly. by the capacity to pay of the poorest one really understands why Asean has The camaraderie produced by golf did member of Asean. This is a result of emerged as the world’s most improbable the trick. Asean’s insistence on the principle of equal payments from all 10 countries. success story. Our book cannot possibly Why is Asean deprived provide a definitive explanation. This principle is manifestly absurd as it Future historians will have to do this. of resources? The simple says that large and rich member states Nonetheless, we try to provide a theory answer is that the total should pay the same as small and on why Asean succeeded. This theory is size of the Asean budget is poor member states. Virtually no other based on a few four-letter words. The determined by the capacity credible international organisation (IO) first begins with “f”. It is fear. to pay of the poorest member uses this formula. Instead, all credible Given the major bilateral disputes of Asean. This is a result of IOs, like the UN, use the principle of they had with each other, it was not Asean’s insistence on the “capacity to pay”. Rich countries pay love that brought together the five principle of equal payments more. Poor countries pay less. founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, from all 10 countries. This This is why one bold recommendation the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. principle is manifestly that our book makes is for Singapore to It was fear of communist expansion. absurd as it says that large take the lead in arguing for the UN- Indeed, these five countries were often style “capacity to pay” system to apply referred to as the non-communist and rich member states should pay the same as small to Asean. Why should Singapore take “dominoes” waiting to fall in the face the lead? Singapore should because it and poor member states. of communist expansion. As Jeffery is the single biggest beneficiary of the and I both lived through this period, magnificent Asean geopolitical umbrella. we experienced this fear. It was real. One recent miracle Asean achieved Singapore’s trade to GDP ratio is the The second four-letter word is was the conclusion of the Asean highest in the world at 300 per cent. No luck. Asean was lucky on several Charter in about a year in 2007. This other Asean country came close to this counts, especially in the 1980s. After achievement should be recorded in the ratio. A lot of Singapore’s $1.2 trillion in Vietnam defeated the United States in Guinness Book of Records. And how was trade could shrivel up if Asean broke up 1975, it became arrogant. It invaded agreement reached so quickly? Former and South-east Asia once again became Cambodia in 1978. This triggered a deputy prime minister S. Jayakumar was a region of turmoil, as it was in 1967. geopolitical alliance between the US, a member of the Eminent Persons Group This is what I meant when I said that China and Asean. The three worked that was set up to begin the discussions Singaporeans were poking holes in the closely together. I experienced it at of the charter. In our book, we quoted geopolitical umbrella gifted to us. We first hand when I served as Singapore’s him as saying: “It helped that Ramos, should do our best to strengthen this Ambassador to the United Nations from Ali Alatas, Musa, Jock Seng and I had umbrella. Let’s start by paying more to 1984 to 1989. This strengthened Asean also been long-time golf buddies!” These it. We can afford it. considerably. It was geopolitical luck were Fidel Ramos of the Philippines, that drew us together. Ali Alatas of Indonesia, Musa Hitam of Asean was also lucky to have Malaysia and Lim Jock Seng of Brunei. unusually strong leaders, especially [email protected] in the 1980s, including Indonesia’s MORE RESOURCES The writer is dean of the Lee Kuan Yew Suharto, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and School of Public Policy at the National Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad. Strong NEEDED University of Singapore. He is the co- leaders don’t have to worry unduly about Yet, even though Asean has succeeded author with Jeffery Sng of The Asean domestic political pressures - they can in many ways, it continues to face many Miracle: A Catalyst For Peace. 

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Cheong Suk-Wai Senior Writer, The Straits Times Beijing’s Chinese charm offensive: Kinship or chimera?

In his new book, The Rise Of China And The Chinese Overseas, Singaporean international relations scholar Leo Suryadinata warns ethnic Chinese born outside China against responding to Beijing’s overtures too warmly

hen China’s current President Xi Jinping announced his country’s new economic strategy, WOne Belt, One Road (OBOR) in late 2013, he did so hot on the heels of a ST ILLUSTRATION: MANNY FRANCISCO big change in Beijing’s policy towards all foreigners of Chinese descent. Mr Xi said as much on June 7, as they were of Chinese descent. From 2000, Beijing began blurring 2014, at the 7th Conference of the Around that time, another Beijing its distinction between huaqiao, or World Federation of Huaqiao Huaren official urged young Indonesian Chinese mainland Chinese living overseas, and Associations: “There are tens of millions to study Chinese language and culture. huaren, or those of Chinese origin of Chinese overseas compatriots (haiwai The rub is, as Dr Suryadinata argues who were born, or settled, overseas, qiaobao) … they did not forget their in his compelling new book, The Rise by lumping both together as one big fatherland, they did not forget their Of China And The Chinese Overseas, China family. ancestral province, they did not forget such exhortations might stoke the This recent blurring is a source of that in their body there is Chinese blood, long-burning embers of suspicion and pride to some huaren, especially the they have enthusiastically supported the resentment among indigenous peoples elderly among them, who like the Chinese revolution, China’s construction of the Chinese in their midst, no thanks thought of being in the fold of a now- and the reform of China.” to the latter’s enterprise, wealth and strong China. With that speech, notes Dr Leo, Mr economic dominance. To such huaren, the Jakarta-born Xi blurred further the line between Dr Suryadinata, 76, is the world’s Singaporean academic Leo Suryadinata huaqiao and huaren by including the authority on the Chinese in Indonesia. says: “I think they should not dream and latter in his definition of the sons and A visiting senior fellow at Singapore think, ‘Wow, China is there to protect daughters of China (Zhonghua ernu). think-tank ISEAS – Yusof Ishak us immediately’. The ethnic Chinese In 2015, Beijing’s Overseas Chinese Institute, he was the director of the overseas can be safe only if they know Affairs Office (OCAO) reckoned that Nanyang Technological University’s how to protect themselves.” there were 60 million Chinese overseas, Chinese Heritage Centre from 2006 Beijing’s apparent change of heart while Taiwan’s Overseas Chinese Affairs to 2013, and teaches government and towards huaren – whom it once advised Commission put the figure closer to 42 politics of South-east Asia at the S. to blend in well with natives of their million. Rajaratnam School of International chosen domiciles – is so that it can rely In 2014, OCAO chairman Qiu Studies. on, and sometimes rope in, the huaren Yuanping ruffled feathers in Indonesia Crucially, since the 1970s he has to help open doors to new business, when she pledged to its Chinese that been studying Beijing’s evolving social and geopolitical opportunities. China would always back them strongly policy towards foreigners of Chinese

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offend Indonesia’s anti-colonial forces led by then President Sukarno, to which China had pledged its solidarity. So China halted its evacuations. The second instance was in 1975, when the Pol Pot-led Khmer Rouge regime slaughtered scores of Cambodians, including ethnic Chinese. As the regime was then China’s ally against the Soviet-Vietnam pact, China chose not to save these Chinese to keep the alliance. And third, in 1976, Vietnam tried to transform its society by barring its Chinese community from engaging in retail trade. But Beijing did not retaliate against Vietnam until 1978, when the latter invaded China’s ally Cambodia. “It was not for the protection of the Chinese overseas, to begin with,” he notes. Singapore academic Leo Suryadinata at the launch of his book, The Rise Of China And The But surely China would want to look Chinese Overseas. PHOTO: JONATHAN CHOO to the Chinese overseas, who knew the lay of their lands better than Beijing’s in- sular bureaucrats, to broker OBOR deals? descent, and stresses that the evolution is perhaps unwise… In terms of political As Dr Suryadinata says of these of this policy matters because it affects power in Malaysia, it’s in the hands of bureaucrats: “Even if they do understand the extent to which those of Chinese the Malays and it’s recognised in the the situation in other countries, their descent can integrate, if not assimilate, international community as such. You understanding may be only through the in overseas lands. could change that, but from within, Chinese-speaking community which China’s perhaps inadvertent stoking rather than from using an external may not be the real reflection of the of such long and deep suspicion, he power, in order to change (things).” situation.” asserts, might cause tempers to flare That, he adds, is because those tragically again, with memories of the Beijing’s apparent change of Chinese overseas who speak Chinese May 1998 anti-Chinese riots and mass heart towards huaren (those might be relatively distant from their rapes of Chinese women in Indonesia, of Chinese origin born or non-Chinese compatriots. Chinese- and the 2014 anti-Chinese riots in settled overseas) — whom speaking Malaysians, he notes, were not Vietnam, still fresh in the minds of many it once advised to blend in in South-east Asia. well with natives of their as close to the Malay ground as their He says: “My argument is that when chosen domiciles — is so that non-Chinese-speaking compatriots. This the economy is really bad, they are it can rely on, and sometimes is so even though some 60,000 Malay children are now studying in Chinese going to get back at the Chinese again. rope in, the huaren to help vernacular schools, he says. Because the economic problems will not open doors to new business, go away you know; they are still with us But back to the Chinese overseas and social and geopolitical how they might help – and profit from especially in the developing countries opportunities. of South-east Asia.” helping – China with OBOR. In that, he notes how Beijing’s current China, he argues further, only Dr Suryadinata is sceptical that charm offensive to, among others, the protects and advances the interests of they might make much headway Chinese of South-east Asia rattles the the Chinese overseas when the latter’s with that. “Even the ethnic Chinese region because its nation-building is interests coincide and do not conflict in these countries will not be able to nascent at best. with China’s own national interests have these projects. They have to be As a cautionary tale, he cites the such as national security, territorial signed between governments and the Malaysian government’s chastising in integrity, political ideology and social Chinese businessmen will only come in 2015 of Mr Huang Huikang, China’s and economic development. the second or third stage as contractors envoy to Malaysia, who spoke out Even then, Dr Suryadinata says, the or sub-contractors – or they might not against some ultra-nationalistic Malays needs and wants of the Chinese overseas come in at all,” he points out. who threatened the Chinese traders of are “fifth, sixth or seventh” in China’s The “One Belt” part of OBOR, which Kuala Lumpur’s Petaling Street, which list of priorities. Mr Xi first mentioned in Kazakhstan was the epicentre of its bloodiest race He cites three instances which amply on Sept 7, 2013, refers to the revival riots on May 13, 1969. bear that out. of the ancient overland Silk Road, Of Malaysian Chinese political The first is the anti-Chinese riots with Mr Xi’s post-modern vision of parties’ support for Mr Huang, Dr which engulfed Indonesia in 1959. it as a belt from China westwards to Suryadinata muses: “Perhaps it’s unwise At first, China, which was then much the countries of Central Asia which, because although one can understand weaker than it is today, sent its ships besides Kazakhstan, include Kyrgyzstan, why they did it, being squeezed by the to evacuate anyone of Chinese descent, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Malays and so forth, in the long run, it but it soon realised that doing so would and onto the Middle East.

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“One Road”, then, refers to Mr ambiguity about OBOR’s ambit and The one bright spot, he adds, is that Xi’s vision of a maritime Silk Road aims may also be partly due to the fact thanks to globalisation, younger Chinese encompassing South-east Asia which that it is somewhat controversial: it has overseas are building more bridges with he, appropriately enough, proposed in shades of China’s tributary system– the non-Chinese everywhere than their Indonesia on Oct 3, 2013. and no former tributary state wanted elders, but still not as “intensively or “OBOR is a grand design with no to be reminded of that, especially as extensively” as to make much of an details,” Dr Suryadinata says, noting they often gave China more than what impact, he says. that even the media in China refers to China gave them. “Because of that,” he says, “it is it in the vaguest ways. “If you want to He adds: “The Chinese continue to the responsibility of governments and talk about whether or not OBOR will say that this is a win-win situation, for intellectuals to make the situation be successful, how do you measure its the mutual benefit of all. However, it is better. And we also hope that China success or failure?” also true that it was suggested by Beijing, would cooperate by making life easier He notes that the continuing without consulting other countries.” for the Chinese overseas.” 

A challenge to test one’s loyalty

Pre-eminent scholar Wang Gungwu says the best way for the Chinese overseas to reassure their birth countries of their loyalty is to assert it

hina’s recent embracing of every foreigner of Chinese descent as one of its own is particularly problematic for Singapore, says Professor CWang Gungwu. In 2000, Beijing apparently abandoned its long-entrenched policy of PHOTO: SHAHRIYA YAHAYA distancing itself from the ethnic Chinese born, or long settled, overseas, with that The reason for this policy volte face, in an awkward position when, say, abandonment becoming particularly Prof Wang says, is so that Beijing can China looks to the Republic to advance pronounced from 2011. In fact, in 1955, tap the non-mainland ethnic Chinese its interests. Take the One Belt, One he notes that China’s then Premier Zhou outside China for support in its bid to Road initiative, which China’s current Enlai urged such Chinese to integrate realise its potential as a new superpower. President launched in late 2013, and fully with the societies and cultures of The special problem for Singapore, he which is meant to connect China to the countries in which they had chosen points out, is an old one: that some from business and other opportunities in at to settle. mainland China still think Singapore least 60 countries in Central and South- This current change in policy means is part of China, and not the sovereign east Asia. that Beijing considers every ethnic country that it is. “Everyone in China is caught up in Chinese outside China – which, for this “The thing is,” he says in an exclu- this, but the vast majority of people purpose, includes Hong Kong, Macau sive interview with ST Asia Report, don’t have a clue as to what it is all and Taiwan – just about on a par with “Singaporeans are more like the Chi- about. And China may think that mainland Chinese. nese in China than any other Chinese Singapore can be a great help to it in Prof Wang, 86, is a pre-eminent in South-east Asia, and so that can give this, as Singapore has invested so much scholar on the Chinese communities of the China-born Chinese the impression in China, has so much knowledge about South-east Asia. He chairs the managing that they’re exactly the same as in China. it and seems to understand its goals.” board of the Lee Kuan Yew School of “The similarities and differences He shares these insights in the light of Public Policy in the National University between them are subtler, and that Singaporean historian and international of Singapore, the East Asian Institute can lead to misunderstandings between relations scholar Leo Suryadinata’s and the board of trustees of the ISEAS Singaporeans and those from the new book, The Rise Of China And The – Yusof Ishak Institute, among other People’s Republic of China.” Chinese Overseas. In it, Dr Suryadinata things. That, he adds, might put Singapore argues that Beijing’s blurring of the

12 Special Report distinction between its mainlanders coming from very different departments, who have migrated overseas and ethnic and they’re not coordinated because Chinese who have long settled overseas is each of them has his department’s a big worry, especially in South-east Asia, own objectives, how to get somebody whose indigenous peoples still resent the to come back and work, or advise on Chinese among them for their enterprise, China’s finances or scientific research, wealth and economic clout. and so on.” In fact, Dr Suryadinata asserts, China Be that as it may, he says that the will protect the Chinese overseas, as ethnic Chinese who have long settled it were, only if and when the latter’s outside China should “be clear as to interests coincide, and do not contradict where their sense of belonging is”. In a in any way what he calls China’s “core way, he says, Beijing’s apparent charm national interests”, such as national offensive towards them is a “challenge” security, territorial integrity, social and to them “not to be confused… but to economic development and survival of be clear and steadfast about what they the Communist Party of China. believe in and who they are.” Prof Wang, who like many calls Dr In this, he adds, Chinese chambers Suryadinata Pak Leo, says: “Pak Leo is of commerce and similar associations perfectly correct to say that, ultimately, in their countries could help them the Chinese in China operate for their overcome that challenge by being own interests; they are thinking of “alert” to what is happening and themselves.” understanding that China is not asking To his mind, Beijing’s current charm the Chinese overseas “to abandon all offensive towards Chinese who are their previous allegiances”. overseas seems more like an attempt Might it help defuse tensions be- to reverse its brain drain. That is because tween the ethnic Chinese and the MIEL in the past 20 years or so, there has ST ILLUSTRATION: sometimes-resentful non-Chinese com- been a surge in mainland Chinese munities among whom they live – say, migrating for educational, work and is a Chinese policy now to woo everyone in Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam – business opportunities. In his book, Dr of Chinese blood.” if these Chinese took them along on Suryadinata notes that some studies For that reason, he does not think business trips, or shared other similar have put the number of such migrants that Beijing has actually had a change opportunities with them? or xin yimin, at six million in the late of heart towards those who have settled “They will have to think very hard 1990s and between seven million and for generations outside China. how to do it,” he muses. “I can also eight million in 2007. “So the Chinese overseas have to ask, see why some among these Chinese These “new migrants”, Prof Wang “That’s of interest to them, but is it of might be tempted to take advantage of says, are the ones Beijing really wants interest to me? And how might China’s these policy changes in China to gain to woo, to pep and rev up its innovations interest affect my community and the personal advantage. And they would and creativity. As he sees it, the Chinese other people in my country?” just break ranks and do things just to of South-east Asia are not quite on The Chinese overseas, he adds, would benefit themselves, no matter what the Beijing’s radar; South-east Asia is, in do well indeed to be aware of how consequences to the others are. This is a fact, “peripheral” to Beijing’s interests. exactly Beijing’s new policy towards human thing and one can’t rule it out.” So, he says with his characteristic them would likely affect them. To his mind, there is no question vigour, “I’m not convinced that there As it is, he notes, such considerations among the younger Chinese in such are not top of the mind for Beijing countries as to where their loyalties because, as he puts it, “that is not their are. “They belong where they are now The ethnic Chinese who prime purpose”. and they have no intention of changing have long settled outside That is because the professionals and that,” he notes. policymakers in Beijing who specialise The really delicate issue is whether the China should “be clear as in understanding and tracking the affairs governments and non-Chinese commu- to where their sense of of foreigners of Chinese descent are few nities in such countries misunderstand belonging is”. In a way, he and far between these days, he says. China’s move to woo Chinese talents says, Beijing’s apparent In their place is a veritable scrum to help it develop well. of over-eager bureaucrats, he notes. He says: “They might actually be charm offensive towards “Now, because of Beijing’s widened reacting for local reasons of disputations, them is a “challenge” to them interest in the Chinese overseas, every debates and dissatisfaction, or rivalry “not to be confused … but to major department of the government is and envy, which are quite normal in be clear and steadfast about pushing its own envelope on this. They every society. are very eager, perhaps over-eager, doing what they believe in and “But the point is that they may take things fast and pushing for this policy this as a reason why they should adopt who they are. very aggressively.” a different policy towards their people “But,” he cautions, “they are not of Chinese origins. That will be a pity, the professionals (of yore) or experts and that’s what is worrying.” on the Chinese overseas. Everyone has a very different idea about ‘How do I PROFESSOR WANG GUNGWU get so-and-so to come back?’ They are [email protected] 

’’ 13 Special Report The fake news conundrum

The scourge of fake news continues to rankle many globally, stoking debate and binding the like-minded to counter the phenomenon.

THE PROBLEM: A phenomenon that has been around hit global headlines during the US presidential elections last year. Now, governments worldwide are stepping up measures to counter it, undermining as it does faith in the media.

RECENT FAKE NEWS INSTANCES: GLOBALLY Fake: Last August, American sociopolitical site The Political Insider published an article with the headline: ST ILLUSTRATION: MIEL “WikiLeaks CONFIRMS Hillary Sold Weapons to ISIS... Then Drops Another BOMBSHELL!” Fact: No WikiLeaks e-mails confirm IN SINGAPORE Accompanying the article was a photo that US presidential candidate Hillary that showed the upper storeys of a block Clinton directly and knowingly “sold Fake: In February 2015, the duo behind of flats that seemed to have collapsed. weapons to ISIS”. the now-defunct sociopolitical site The Real Singapore (TRS) were arrested Fact: It was in fact a hoax. The Housing Fake: Last October, Russian TV network after a police report was made against and Development Board filed a police Russia Today published a video, ahead the website for inciting hatred against report over the hoax photo. The editors of the Italian constitutional referendum the Filipino community in Singapore. An of All Singapore Stuff deleted the article of Dec 4, purporting to show thousands article published on TRS claimed that and issued an apology. of people protesting against Italian complaints by a Filipino family over noise Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. caused a scuffle between the police and Fact: The people had gathered in participants at a Thaipusam procession. support of Mr Renzi, not to protest Fact: This did not happen.For publishing against him. the above and other seditious articles, Fake: In February, the claim that Bata the Australian editor of Japanese shoes had the Arabic word “Allah” on descent, Ai Takagi, was sentenced to 10 their soles went viral in Malaysia. Bata months’ jail. Her Singaporean husband withdrew 70,000 pairs from its stores in Yang Kaiheng, who was co-founder of Malaysia, losing more than RM500,000 the site, received eight months’ jail. (S$158,000). Fake: On Nov 11 last year, All Singapore Last November, All Singapore Stuff published Fact: Bata was cleared of the allegations Stuff published an article with the an article saying the rooftop of Punggol by the Al-Quran Printing Control and headline: “This just happened. The top Waterway Terraces had collapsed. Police and civil defence units were mobilised and Licensing Board of Malaysia’s Home floors of Punggol Waterway Terraces deployed to investigate, but it was a hoax. Ministry. collapsed!” PHOTO: HDB

14 Special Report The Straits Times says Tackling bane of disinformation ews, by definition, is never fake. presence of one million asylum seekers. disinformation could be intermingled It is authentic when produced Here, it’s an offence under the with what’s plausible, a mischievous spin by professional journalists in Telecommunications Act to knowingly might be given to data, coverage could be Nestablished organisations who send a false message, for example, that calculatedly tilted, selected facts might work against the clock to gather accurate a bomb is set to go off in a place. The be distorted insidiously, and falsehoods and verified information, and to present Government is reviewing the need for passed off as views. it fairly, honestly and impartially. In further measures against malicious Hence, there is concern that laws dangerous places, they also do it fearlessly misinformation, especially when it could framed too widely might prove “a setback and pay a heavy price for telling the truth cause panic and lead to physical harm. for mainstream and citizen journalism”, – like the 50 journalists who were killed Child-kidnapping scares at malls have as a commentator noted. How finely must last year. surfaced here in the past. More sinister is organisations filter comments, and what False information is not news, however the widespread damage to social relations if information from seemingly reliable hard it tries to look like the real thing, that foreign players can wreak. State- sources proves to be less than accurate because it conforms to a very different sponsored threats cannot be dismissed as over time? process. No checks, no principles and no Russia, for example, has admitted that it In pinpointing harm, laws must target integrity are the trademarks of such content. is building up information-warfare troops. malicious intent and reckless behaviour. Among those who seek to misinform and While there is no doubt the fiery and And search engines must not be allowed to mislead others, anything goes. the fake can cause considerable harm, proliferate proven fabrications. The limited The potential of grave harm to society care is needed when deciding how best to response of Google is to place “fact check” which false information and hate speech outlaw excesses. First, there is so much of tags on some search results, and Facebook can cause has spurred calls for laws to curb it that one cannot possibly run them all to will use some fact checkers to monitor this scourge. In Germany, social media ground. Further, some might have limited news. That is hardly enough. giants face fines of up to €50 million (S$75 impact or relate to trivial concerns. Second, Ultimately, what will matter more is the million) if they do not expunge offensive crossing a red line could be contentious news literacy of the public – the ability to posts promptly. These have multiplied when the line is blurred. Outright and question dubious claims and sources and because of social tensions created by the wholesale fabrication is clear-cut. But to not let these go viral.

MEASURES TO Alphabet, had already run limited tests social media. A survey conducted of the feature and has extended the by Ipsos Public Affairs for a recent COUNTER FAKE NEWS: capability to every listing in its search BuzzFeed News report found that most pages and massive search catalogue. American adults trust news they’ve read from social networks in the last WHAT ARE month less than stories they’ve read GOVERNMENTS from traditional news sources like newspapers and broadcast TV — by a Facebook ramped up the fight against DOING ABOUT IT? significant margin. fake news by adding tips for users on Singapore: Law and Home Affairs how to tell when shared stories are Americans are wary of social Minister K Shanmugam in Parliament media news bogus. on April 3 said the Government is Percentage of Americans who trust news The tips included checking website reviewing how to combat fake news, from these sources all or most of the time addresses along with searching out as current laws are limited in tackling other sources or articles on topics. The the problem. Among all Among users of respondents respective news source initiative, which was launched in the Germany: Considering a law that will United States, France and a dozen other % require social networks like Facebook Print 58 countries, added an educational tool to remove fake news. Those that fail to newspapers 74 in an “awareness display” that will be Newspapers’ 54 do it promptly can face fines of up to 69 visible on users’ news feeds for three websites €50 million (S$75 million). 50 days. News radio 68 The social media giant also plans to Britain: Considering whether fake 59 Broadcast TV 66 pay fact-checkers to monitor news on news spreaders can be blocked or closed down, or if genuine news outlets can be 50 its platforms, in the face of sustained Cable news 65 given a special verification mark. Also, it criticism that it has not done enough Talk radio 34 to stop the spread of fake news. is urging tech companies to help tackle 57 the problem on social media platforms Online-only 35 55 as they have done in combating piracy, news 18 illegal content sharing, hate speech and YouTube 53 cyber bullying. 15 Twitter 49 18 WILL IT ALL HELP TO Facebook 27 Google, the world’s largest search Social media 15 engine, is rolling out a new feature that RESTORE TRUST? (generally) 25 places “Fact Check” tags on snippets This is going to be an uphill challenge, NOTE: Based on a survey among 1,007 US adults and articles in its news results, reported for everyone in the media, especially SOURCE: IPSOS SURVEY ON BEHALF OF BUZZFEED Bloomberg. The company’s parent, those focused on sharing news via STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS

15 Trade Watch Xiongan: China’s new special economic zone

An aerial view of the government quarters of Xiongxian County, Hebei province, China. Beijing has announced plans to set up the Xiongan New Area consisting of parts of the counties of Anxin, Xiongxian and Rongcheng to absorb part of the growing population & functionalities of Beijing. PHOTO: EPA

The new zone in China’s prominent growth zones Hebei will have the Xiongan New Area aims to rival the two special economic zones in Shenzhen same importance as and Pudong in southern China founded by Mr Xi’s predecessors Deng Xiaoping Shenzhen and Pudong and Jiang Zemin. Shenzhen has grown from a shing village into a bustling city, while Pudong has turned from a wetland intoHEBEI China’s nancialLIAONING hub. hina will establish a new Xiongan New Area special economic zone in the HEBEI Beijing Area: Beijing First stage: about 100 sq km, heavily polluted province of Xiongxian Mid-term: about 100 sq km, Hebei to promote integration Rongcheng Long-term: about 2,000 sq km with the neighbouring cities HEBEI Anxin Tianjin Population: 1.1 millionBohai Sea(as of 2014) Cof Beijing and Tianjin, the government GDP: US$2.9 billion in 2016 has announced. The Xiongan New Area, Xiongan New Area CHINA is located around 100km south-west of Shanghai SHANXI PudongSHANDONG New Area Beijing, close to the Hebei provincial CHINA Time: Established in 1992 capital of Shijiazhuang, and will house Area: 1,210 sq km some of Beijing’s relocated “non-capital Population: 5.47 million (as of 2014) functions”. GDP: US$875.2 million in 1990 to Beijing, home to 22 million people, US$l26.9 billion in 2016 is trying to curb population growth and GUANGDONG Shenzhen Special Economic Zone relocate industries and other non-capital Time: Established in 1980 functions to Hebei in the coming years Area: 1,992 sq km as part of its efforts to curb pollution Population: 11.38 million (as of 2015) and congestion. GDP: US$26 million in 1979 to The removal of non-capital functions US$283.2 billion in 2016 from Beijing is part of a greater strategy SOURCE: CHINA DAILY/ASIA NEWS NETWORK PHOTOS: REUTERS, BLOOMBERG STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS to integrate the development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei for a better economic The combined gross domestic product be relocated from Beijing. structure, cleaner environment and of the three counties was about 20 Within hours of the announcement improved public services. billion yuan (S$4 billion) last year, or on April 1, investors from all over the Here are some interesting details less than 1 per cent of Beijing’s gross country descended on Xiongan, causing about the initiative: domestic product, according to local average apartment prices to nearly • The Xiongan New Area is 100 sq km government data. double in a day. in area now but will eventually be • The new area has geological advan- Home prices in one area increased expanded to 2,000 sq km. tages, convenient transportation, from around 4,000 yuan (S$812) per sq • The Xiongan New Area covers ample resources and lots of room m to highs of 20,000 yuan, reports said. the counties of Xiongxian, Anxin for development. China moved swiftly to clamp down and Rongcheng, and is home to • Xiongan New Area is expected to on the speculation, arresting seven people Baiyangdian, one of the largest include markets, schools, research for unspecified real estate violations in freshwater wetlands in north China. institutions and hospitals, which will the newly designated area.  SOURCES: THE STRAITS TIMES, REUTERS, XINHUA, CHINA DAILY 16 Trade Watch Saudi King’s mega deals with Asia

Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud sought to seal dozens of new partnerships between energy–deficient Asia and his Kingdom, the world’s biggest crude exporter, during his recent long visit. It came as Riyadh has seen its oil revenues decline steadily in recent years. Here’s a look at some of the major deals signed:

China’s President Xi Jinping and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman at China’s National Museum in Beijing. CHINA PHOTO: REUTERS King Salman oversaw the signing of deals potentially worth US$65 billion (S$91.3 billion) in Beijing. involving sectors from energy to space. The deals included a memorandum of understanding between giant state oil firm Saudi Aramco and China North Industries Group Corp (Norinco), to look into building refining and chemical plants in China. Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) and Sinopec agreed to develop petrochemical projects in both China and Saudi Arabia. Alongside, Saudi and Chinese companies signed 21 deals.

MALAYSIA JAPAN INDONESIA

The Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Saudi Arabia’s King Salman with Japan’s Indonesian President Joko Widodo watches Complex in Johor, now under construction. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a banquet as former president Megawati Sukarnoputri PHOTO: ALPHONSUS CHERN hosted at the Prime Minister’s official and her daughter Puan Maharani take a residence in Tokyo. PHOTO: REUTERS selfie with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman in Jakarta. PHOTO: REUTERS Malaysia and Saudi Arabia companies Saudi Arabia agreed on a nine-point signed seven memorandums of under- Saudi-Japan Vision 2030 plan to help Eleven MOUs were signed during King standing (MOUs) in various areas, in- both countries fulfil economic targets. Salman’s visit, covering efforts to fight cluding construction, halal cooperation, The plan identified some 31 “front runner terrorism, people smuggling and drug aerospace and haj services, worth about projects”, one of which is the possible trafficking, among others. Riyadh pledged RM9.74 billion (S$3 billion). Saudi oil listing of Saudi national oil company US$1 billion (S$1.4 billion) to finance giant Aramco is also buying an equity Aramco on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. a development project and reaffirmed stake in Petronas’ major refining and The initial public offering, slated for next the commitment of Saudi Aramco and petrochemicals project in the southern year, is expected to be worth US$100 Pertamina to set up a joint venture to Malaysian state of Johor, investing a total billion (S$141 billion) in what could be upgrade Indonesia’s largest oil refinery of US$7 billion (S$9.8 billion). The pro- the world’s largest. The plan also involves in Cilacap, Central Java. ject is located in Pengerang town, about setting up special deregulated economic SOURCES: THE STRAITS TIMES, THE BUSINESS 110km from Johor Baru. zones in Saudi Arabia. TIMES, THE JAKARTA POST, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG

17 Looking Ahead Next on the anvil Here’s a glance at the key happenings from May to December, 2017

MAY JULY SOUTH KOREA – The country will hold its GERMANY – Efforts presidential election on May 9 following the are underway to impeachment of former President Park organise a summit Geun-hye. Democratic Party candidate and between Prime current front runner in the election, Moon Minister Shinzo Abe Jae-in, believes that talks with North Korea and President Xi are essential if the nuclear issue is to be Jinping in July, on the resolved. His more passive approach to sidelines of the Group dealing with the North could strain ties of 20 nations (G-20) with the United States if he is elected. summit in Hamburg, Germany. If the meeting takes place, it will be their first bilateral meeting since JUNE last November, when the two leaders met for 10 minutes on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Lima, Peru. SINGAPORE – The IISS Asia Security Summit, the premier institution in the Asia-Pacific for defence diplomacy, is due JULY to be held in Singapore from INDIA – India will hold its presidential 2 – 4 June 2017. Every year, the election before 25th July, the day the Dialogue recognises upcoming incumbent President, Pranab Bukherjee’s and established regional security term expires. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s concerns. This year, the keynote decisive victories in Uttarakhand and Uttar speech will be given by Australian Pradesh elections give an advantage in the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. selection of the presidential candidate.

JUNE AUGUST SINGAPORE – Singapore is PHILIPPINES – Asean marks its 50th anniversary on due to submit its rebuttal to August 8. The 50th Asean Ministerial Meeting and related Malaysia’s International Court meetings coinciding with the regional bloc’s anniversay of Justice (ICJ) appeal on the will be held in Metro Manila. sovereignty of Pedra Branca by June 14. Malaysia filed an application in February seeking a revision of the ICJ judgement in 2008, citing three “new facts” to argue that “Singapore’s officials at the highest levels did not consider that Singapore had acquired sovereignty over Pedra Branca from Johor”.

JULY SEPTEMBER JAPAN – Tokyo is set to hold an assembly election on July 2. SINGAPORE – Singaporeans will elect a president this Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party September, in the first election since changes to the will be challenging popular Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s Constitution were passed last November. All the candidates party for control. will have to be from the Malay community this round, under a new rule that reserves presidential elections for candidates from a particular racial group, if there has not been a president from the group for a period of time. This means that Singapore will have its first Malay president in 47 years.

18 Looking Ahead

SEPTEMBER GERMANY – German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be running for a fourth term in the country’s federal elections. Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party NOVEMBER emerged victorious in the state election in Germany’s Saarland region in March, VIETNAM – Early reports suggest that an election considered by many to be US President Donald Trump is considering an important early indicator of voter attending the annual Apec summit in sentiment for other state elections, as Vietnam. If he does attend the meeting, well as the federal election in September. the event could shed some light on the future of trade ties between The United States and Asia under his administration. SEPTEMBER SINGAPORE – The Singapore Grand Prix will be held in September 2017.

OCTOBER THAILAND – The cremation of Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej is due to take place. This will be followed by the NOVEMBER coronation of his successor King Maha PHILIPPINES – Philippines President Vajiralongkorn. Thereafter, restrictions Rodrigo Duterte has invited Mr Donald on political parties are expected to be Trump to attend the East Asia Summit lifted, paving the way for the election (EAS) in Manila. As with the annual process. Apec summit in Vietnam, the event will be watched for signs of US commitment OCTOBER to the region. INDONESIA – Security is likely to AUTUMN be high as Indonesia marks the 15th CHINA – The anniversary of the Bali bombing attacks Communist Party that left over 200 people dead. of China is due to hold its 19th National Congress in autumn 2017. This congress will be watched closely DECEMBER as a new leadership will be elected, and INDIA – The country’s Election a majority of the Politburo Standing Commission has set a final deadline Committee is expected to retire. of December 31, for the opposition President Xi Jinping is, however, widely Congress party to hold internal expected to continue for another term elections. All eyes will be on whether as general-secretary of the party Central vice-president Rahul Gandhi will Committee. become president. — Nadia Chevroulet, Benjamin Chua SOURCES: THE STRAITS TIMES, YONHAP NEWS, NIKKEI, LIVE MINT, NEW YORK TIMES, THE GUARDIAN. PHOTOS: REUTERS, EPA, AFP, IANS, SINGAPORE GRAND PRIX, STFILE

Read more www.straitstimes.com At 60, the EU continues to A good first step for US and A life by the numbers is inspire China not worth living The beleaguered organisation The much anticipated summit In our brave new world ruled faces challenges but remains between US President Donald by data science, quality counts a global force for good Trump and his Chinese as much as quantity counterpart Xi Jinping worked http://str.sg/4XaG http://str.sg/4XaS better than expected. http://str.sg/4XEa

Tommy Koh Jonathan Eyal Ignatius Low

19 Perspective A hopeful spring for Sino-US ties?

he summit between United They also pledged to make progress on their financial bottom lines by drawing States President Donald Trump trade negotiations in the next 100 days, an up tariff and other barriers against others. and Chinese President Xi indication that economic issues will figure The last time when this occurred on an TJinping was significant because prominently in the Trump administration’s overwhelming scale – in the 1930s – the it marked the transition from the former’s ties with China, which are burdened by a result was to tilt an already shaky global campaign bluster to realpolitik. multibillion-dollar US trade deficit. Beijing economic order into World War II. Free Mr Trump’s anti-China tirades during needs to acknowledge the new mood in trade must remain a bulwark of the current his campaigning for the presidency had many parts of America that is symbolised international order, overseen by primary been strident even by the standards of by Mr Trump’s ascendancy. stakeholders such as the US, China, Japan, political posturing expected during an India and the European Union. adversarial process, in which an anti-China Last week’s Trump-Xi summit Apart from economic issues, strategic dig comes in useful domestically. Mr Trump in the US should mark the choices and events will test the Sino-US had gone much further, threatening to beginning of a new, more relationship. North Korea’s seemingly brand as a currency manipulator a country mature and, hence, more unstoppable ability to act as a free agent that he blamed for the economic rape of sustainable phase in the in that relationship is a matter of deep America. As President-elect, he even had world’s most important international concern. Pyongyang’s nuclear accepted a call from Taiwan’s leader, in a bilateral relationship. No capabilities, catching up with its ambitions move which appeared to suggest a break breakthroughs were made but, test after test, will require China to use with America’s one-China policy. then, none had been expected. all its powers of persuasion over the Last week’s Trump-Xi summit in the US recalcitrant state. Although North Korea should mark the beginning of a new, more A major global economy like China is not non-nuclear Syria, which has drawn mature and, hence, more sustainable phase should not give protectionist lobbies in a swift American response following the in the world’s most important bilateral the US a handle with which to beat free use of chemical weapons, China must relationship. No breakthroughs were trade, which helps everyone ultimately. contemplate the consequences of unilateral made but, then, none had been expected. Instead, the challenge is for both countries US action on Pyongyang. Beijing also must Instead, the meeting established a new to take a stand against de-globalisation, recalibrate its moves in the South China framework for high-level transactions which represents an international race to Sea, which could see the US being drawn between the two powers. the bottom when nations try to shore up into a festering dispute. 

warehousing and distribution, as well as lifestyle activities – is a reflection of how Daring to dream big the limitations of size can be overcome. Being small need not condition the responses of younger generations. Some might think that there is less scope for despite small size massive projects on a tiny island. But the infrastructural reinvention of Singapore s plans emerge for the Tuas box would not be unprecedented in this is not limited to the mega port. mega port, they draw attention sector. Decades ago, the Port of Singapore The relocation to Tuas will free up about to the scale of the continuing Authority’s initiative in turning disused 1,000ha of land – thrice the size of Marina reinvention of Singapore, even warehouses into exhibition centres was Bay – for development in what is envisaged A as the Greater Southern Waterfront. after half a century of remarkable growth. to prove instrumental in the growth of Tuas represents the latest incarnation of the exhibition business. Changing port Elsewhere on the island too, big plans Singapore’s long-time role as a global functions had nudged the port authority are afoot. Land reclamation will give port city. The importance of that role into optimising land use, which helped to the equivalent of two Toa Payoh towns can be seen in the maritime sector which to Pulau Tekong. And Paya Lebar and The broad thinking of the contributes about 7 per cent to the Jurong East will add commercial depth present Maritime and Port GDP and employs more than 170,000 to Singapore. The latter will fulfil an Authority of Singapore – workers. Consequently, the migration of important regional function as well, as reflected in the fusion of port port functions from Tanjong Pagar, Pasir the Singapore terminal of the high-speed operations, warehousing Panjang, Keppel and Brani to Tuas South rail line from Kuala Lumpur. None of these and distribution, as well will be a gigantic step. The move will occur is being based on past templates. Instead, as lifestyle activities – is a progressively from 2021 and be completed present and future needs, and the ideas of reflection of how the limitations by 2040. Its success would constitute a younger Singaporeans, will play a key part of size can be overcome. fitting tribute to Singapore on the diamond in determining the shape and vibrancy anniversary of its independence. put Singapore on the global map of the of spaces. Indeed, Tuas might evolve beyond being conventions and exhibitions industry. That As these developments are built, they a global maritime hub into something of took on a life of its own and, today, the should reinforce what the present iconic a local lifestyle hub as well. There are industry is taken for granted. facilities have shown – that Singapore is plans to house cafes, retail stores and a The broad thinking of the present defined, not by its scarcity of land but jogging track on elevated spaces so as to Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore by the imagination of its planners and optimise land use. Thinking out of the – reflected in the fusion of port operations, citizens. 

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Warren Fernandez Editor-in-Chief Best route to the future is the one you chart yourself

Young pondering jobs should play to their strengths and seize opportunities that arise

lue-eyed and boyishly handsome, Mike Ross is a brilliant young lawyer. Blessed with a photo- graphic memory, he uses Bhis uncanny legal prowess to trump his opponents in courtroom battles, often defending downtrodden underdogs against greedy corporate giants. The catch? Mike has a dark secret. He is a bit of a fraud. He never went to law school, has no law degree, and was never called to the Bar. His crime: He bypassed the hurdles that the legal fraternity has put in place to keep its charmed circle closed in order to uphold standards, but also, to ensure lawyers retain their cachet. This sets the stage for a riveting television drama series, Suits, starring Canadian actor Patrick J. Adams, now into its seventh season, as Mike defends other suspects while trying to hide his own wrongdoing. ST ILLUSTRATION: ADAM LEE I was reminded of the programme as I sat in the brand-new auditorium of firm will have tucked away in a quiet He said: “By asserting that we the Singapore Management University’s corner of the office. don’t know what new jobs will (SMU) law school recently. I was there This will take away much of the replace displaced ones, we can avoid for The Straits Times Education Forum, drudgery of legal research work, now the ignominy of being wrong in organised in partnership with SMU, done by junior lawyers. Drafting and our speculation. But, while this is a which was focused this year on what filing of documents, and even settling comfortably safe and ostensibly wise the future of jobs might look like, for disputes, might then be done more position, it is also a cop-out. lawyers and the rest of us. efficiently and cost-effectively with the “Universities, as thought leaders, The day cannot be far off, I mused, help of robots and artificial intelligence. should have the courage, indeed the when the premise of the TV show is made How then, will lawyers, law firms and audacity, not so much to predict what untenable. Mike’s prodigious memory of law schools respond? jobs might disappear, but by drawing legal cases, which gives him his courtroom My wandering mind was jolted back upon the lessons of the past to see into edge, is likely to be surpassed by a robot by SMU board of trustees chairman Ho the future, to speculate what new jobs that just about every self-respecting law Kwon Ping’s provocative opening address. might emerge.”

22 Thinking Aloud

My colleague, ST’s senior education So, rather than everyone focusing on medicine was the preferred path, correspondent Sandra Davie, gamely science and technology, some students largely as my Uncle Victor had long took up the challenge. She cited might be better off doing literature, if been searching for a successor to take a study by Oxford academics, Dr that was where their passions lie, he over his successful family practice. Michael A. Osborne and Dr Carl argued. Several prospects had passed up the Benedikt Frey, titled The Future Of He urged the students in the audience opportunity, which meant that, as the Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs – not once, but twice – not to decide youngest member of the extended To Computerisation?, which looked at their futures based just on what the family, I was the last hope of keeping more than 700 jobs, the tasks workers manpower planners were projecting, the Fernandez name on the door. perform and the skills required to do but to “follow your passion in what So, dutifully, I signed up for the so. It also considered the technology you want to study”. science stream in junior college to needed to automate these jobs. To cope with the uncertainty that is prepare to read medicine at university. It concluded that the jobs that are inevitable in a time of change, young After several months of trying this out, most likely to disappear are those of people were advised to ditch the idea however, I concluded that this was a telephone salesmen, legal secretaries, of having to live up to a rigid life plan mistake, as my interests lay elsewhere. bookkeepers, accountants, retail work- – set out by parents or society – to I plucked up the courage to tell my ers and cooks. be followed at all costs. Instead, they family that I had to ditch the plan. At the other end of the spectrum, needed the derring-do to adapt and seize Not surprisingly, there was much teachers, nurses, speech therapists, opportunities, to shape their futures. disappointment and consternation all physiotherapists, personal trainers, round. Partly to assure everyone that I artists and architects, programmers The greatest gifts that was not simply copping out, I decided and software designers were those most parents and educators could to apply for the prestigious humanities likely to remain in demand. give their charges are a programme in Hwa Chong Junior Thankfully, journalists and newspa- nimbleness of mind and a College, which offered the prospect of per editors were also among the latter resilience of spirit, to equip going to Oxford University, followed by crowd. For, while the way in which them with the ability to a career in public service. news and information is consumed constantly recalibrate their First though, I had to pass the might change, there would always be route into the future, even as entrance exam and win a government a demand for people who could help the landscape continues to scholarship, as my family could not make sense of developments in a rap- shift around them. possibly afford the exorbitant fees. idly changing world. This spurred me to get serious about Put simply, not only jobs which are Pointing to his own experience, my studies, and somehow, I managed high-tech, but also those which called Professor De Meyer recounted how he to land a place at Oxford. for high touch and high trust – to borrow had expected to take up a job in his Then, came the twist. I lost out an idea from American futurologist John field at a local company, after graduating on the government scholarship after Naisbitt – are the ones that are most as an engineer from the University of I botched the interview. That left me likely to survive. Ghent in Belgium. thrashing about for months in search of So, how might today’s young, and But, events in life led him into financial assistance in the recession-hit those charged with their education, academia, and ultimately to the top Singapore of the mid-1980s. Thankfully, prepare for this brave new world now job at a university in Singapore. The Straits Times came to the rescue, unfolding? In other words, while it makes sense when it decided that it would set up As several speakers pointed out at to scan the horizon to survey the jobs a new scholarship programme. To my the ST forum, workers will have to that are in demand today, and likely to great surprise and relief, I became its “learn how to learn” to keep reskilling, first recipient. returning to school several times over be so tomorrow, young people also have to look within to figure out where their And so began my unexpected their careers. journalistic journey. Over time, I found But, someone asked, should the focus strengths lie, and how they might find their niche in a changing world. myself enjoying what I was doing, and be on the so-called Stem skills, namely made progress as I took on various in science, technology, engineering The greatest gifts that parents and educators could give their charges are assignments, helped along by many and mathematics, since these were, no talented and kind colleagues. I did not doubt, going to be key for many of the a nimbleness of mind and a resilience of spirit, to equip them with the ability imagine back then that I might, one jobs of the future? day, be asked to helm this 172-year- You might think the answer to this to constantly recalibrate their route into the future, even as the landscape old media organisation. was obvious, but, interestingly, SMU I recount all of this to reinforce the president Arnoud De Meyer offered a continues to shift around them. As I pondered over this discussion point that Prof De Meyer made. different view. No one can say what the future holds. Technology, he said, would create many later, it struck me how so much has So, while it is good to plan a route and new jobs, even as some are destroyed. He changed since I was an 18-year-old chart a course, the best advice anyone recounted how a technology company he having to make “the big decision” on can give today’s young on what the jobs knew of was constantly on the lookout, what to do with my life. And yet, for all of the future might entail is to assert not just for coders, but also people with the changes, some things remain pretty that the future is, as it always has been, strong literary skills. The reason: Video much the same. simply what you make of it. games created by tech geeks become Like many Singaporean parents, bestsellers only when they have a mine had wanted me to take up compelling storyline. a profession. In my family’s case, [email protected] 

23 Disruption & Jobs Disruptive change and the Singapore dilemma

What will the future of work be as disruption due to technology becomes the new normal Ho Kwon and how should universities prepare Ping graduates? These were some of the issues taken up at The Straits Times Education Forum 2017, which was organised in partnership with Singapore Management The future of work will University (SMU). Here are excerpts of the require individuals to forum’s keynote address by Ho Kwon Ping, ’’prepare for different careers, which will entail continuous chairman of SMU’s board of trustees and learning and education executive chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings: throughout one’s working life.

e all know by now the wave before it cascades over us, so What does this say? Something which that disruption has that we can ride the wave rather than we all already knew in our heart of become the new be crushed beneath it. hearts. And that is quite simply that normal in various But it isn’t easy. our schools teach the basics extremely industries where And one big impediment is a uniquely well and their academic rigour is second Wcomputerisation, robotics and artificial Singaporean dilemma. That is the glaring to none, but beyond that, we have not intelligence will make many traditional, contradiction between our numerous been able to convert these academic even highly skilled but repetitive, jobs scholastic achievements on one hand, achievements into real-life innovations redundant. versus our lack of innovative capabilities which promote entrepreneurship or Everyone – your teachers, political on the other. productivity. Our students rank the top leaders, social media pundits – all talk Singapore high-school students globally in science scores, but probably so much of digital disruption that it have been regularly acing international amongst the lowest in improving the has become a cliche. And, of course, benchmarking tests, topping the world proverbial mouse trap. the danger of cliches is that they stifle in reading, mathematics and science For most of us involved in education, deeper questioning; beyond being scores. To list the various different this is not breaking news. We have long told that disruption has hit us and that indices would border on boastfulness. worried that our acclaimed academic flexibility is the only way to survive, But it is interesting to note that the rigour is turning into rigidity; that most people don’t have much else to say. Programme for International Student our focus on just a few measures of By asserting that we don’t know what Assessment, famous for its acronym achievement may turn into intellectual new jobs will replace displaced ones, we Pisa, has ranked Singapore students the inflexibility. But when the world was can avoid the ignominy of being wrong highest amongst 70 developed countries, rapidly globalising along well-defined, in our speculation. But while this is a not just in scholastic achievements, but predictable trajectories, Singapore comfortably safe and ostensibly wise also in using their knowledge and skills soared along with the trends. position, it is also a cop out. to solve real-world problems. Now, however, in an age of disruptive Universities, as thought leaders, That’s the good news. The not so change, our much focused discipline can should have the courage, indeed the sterling news is how these achievements become an archaic impediment. It can audacity, not so much to predict what translate into practical measures of produce the contradictions I highlighted jobs might disappear, but by drawing innovation and entrepreneurship. While just now, and deter our ability to adapt upon the lessons of the past to see into we’re being ranked No. 1 in the Global to disruption. Like great business brands the future, to speculate what new jobs Entrepreneurship Index for the ease which failed to innovate and adapt fast might emerge. Furthermore, we need of doing business, Singapore ranks a enough – Kodak, Xerox, Nokia, just to to walk the talk by training students in lowly 24th in displaying innovation and mention a few – will Singapore Inc join fields of study which can dovetail with entrepreneurship. their ranks? jobs which still do not exist today. Worse, although Singapore is ranked That is the challenge we embrace at sixth in the world according to a Cornell- GLOBALISATION OF the Singapore Management University. Insead 2016 report for encouraging We may get it wrong, but at least we try innovation, we are placed at 78th in TALENT to get it… we do not feign helplessness the world in terms of actually achieving For the jobseekers, there are two in the face of disruptive change. Like innovation efficiency – the ability to burning questions: How do I discern the proverbial surfer, we want to catch increase productivity via innovation. which jobs will survive and which will 24 Disruption & Jobs

Panellists at the ST Education Forum 2017 were (from left) ST senior education correspondent Sandra Davie, SMU president Arnoud De Meyer, SMU’s board of trustees chairman Ho Kwon Ping, Ms Nandini Jayaram, the South-east Asia human resource lead for Google Asia-Pacific, and the moderator, ST managing editor Fiona Chan. About 500 people attended the forum, which focused on the future of work, universities and the economy. PHOTO: STFILE disappear, and what skills do I need can demonstrate knowledge of the to protect myself against redundancy? information required to prevent your INTERDISCIPLINARY For policymakers, how can the state buildings from collapsing. KNOWLEDGE protect against job loss and promote In other words, genuinely meritocratic, If we look closer to home, what does job creation? skills-based certification will replace elite this mean for education in Singapore? Partly because the boom years of job protectionism. The globalisation of SMU has recognised that innovations globalisation, which certainly saw a talent is finally eroding the last bastions of and solutions often emerge at the lot of creative destruction, created job protectionism – the elite professions. intersection of disciplines. In 2015, unprecedentedly enormous inequalities SMU introduced SMU-X courses of wealth, and political elites ignored The globalisation of talent is to give students real-world, hands- the voiceless, disenfranchised masses, finally eroding the last bastions on experience through a structured a political backlash in recent years has of job protectionism – the pedagogical approach that involves favoured job protectionism rather than elite professions. Because of working collaboratively in groups job creation. The trade-off, however, is demographic trends, there will and solving actual, interdisciplinary that the protection of jobs which are likely always be a shortage problems faced by companies and no longer economically sustainable will of doctors for a long time to organisations, under the guidance and delay the rise of new industries with come. But for lawyers? I’m not mentorship of faculty and practitioners. more creative and productive jobs. so sure, because just as fintech Through SMU-X, the university aims Ironically, however, while job protec- is replacing hundreds, and to train its undergraduates to “learn tionism is an increasingly loud clarion call soon thousands, of financial how to learn”, and nurture skills set to for populist politicians, society is moving analysts, hundreds of young prepare them for the volatile working the other way. Not only is technology lawyers doing legal research world. SMU-X also serves to create rendering previously safe jobs redundant, will be easily replaced by the a mindset for collaboration across but the existence of lucrative, regulated most advanced search engines disciplines, as well as with external professions – the most elite form of job and artificial intelligence stakeholders from diverse fields. protectionism – is being challenged by algorithms. Rapidly advancing Increasingly, undergraduates will be the globalisation of talent. technologies in data science able to create their own combination of courses to fit their own aspirations. Doctors, lawyers, accountants are not will replace medical and legal The intersection of disciplines will be just smart people because of the nature researchers and assistants, where new jobs will be created. Biology of their work. They’re smart because leaving only the most creative, and engineering was one combination they’ve created and maintained very adaptive, and forward-thinking professionals in these fields safe. already emerging during my time as a effective barriers to entry by outsiders, student, with the exciting new field of even those with even the same or even bio-mechanics. Add to that computer Because of demographic trends, higher skills than them. The celebrated science and the just emerging field of investor Warren Buffett once said that there will likely always be a shortage bio-robotics suddenly emerges... he’d invest in industries with natural of doctors for a long time to come. But Starting August this year, SMU will moats – the water bodies surrounding for lawyers? I’m not so sure, because offer another new interdisciplinary mediaeval castles and serving as barriers just as fintech is replacing hundreds, and major, this time in Smart-City Man- to entry. In jobs, doctors and lawyers soon thousands, of financial analysts, agement and Technology, which aims have natural moats, because of the hundreds of young lawyers doing legal to nurture graduates who innovate certification required to keep outsiders research will be easily replaced by the solutions to urbanisation challenges at bay. But the moats are drying up. most advanced search engines and through application of interdisciplinary There are pressures to allow artificial intelligence algorithms. knowledge across technology, social doctors and lawyers trained anywhere Rapidly advancing technologies in sciences and management. in the world to practise in Singapore data science will replace medical and The future of work will require so long as they pass the requisite legal researchers and assistants, leaving individuals to prepare for different competency exams. In New Zealand, only the most creative, adaptive, and careers, which will entail continuous anyone can be an architect without forward-thinking professionals in these learning and education throughout one’s going to architectural school, if you fields safe. working life.  25 Disruption & Jobs Sandra Davie Senior Education Correspondent The Straits Times Race with machines, not against them The future of work, MIT research scientist Andrew McAfee explains how workers can race with smart machines

n a face-off two years ago, Enlitic, a deep-learning machine, was pitted against expert human diagnostic radiographers in diagnosing lung cancer. IEnlitic won. The machine, which was built to read X-rays and CT scans, was 50 per cent better at classifying malignant tumours and had a false- negative rate (where a cancer is missed) of zero, compared with 7 per cent for the humans. Machines like Enlitic point to the fact that many jobs, including white-collar ones, are in danger of being taken over by robots and computers. Quite simply, if a job is routine, it can be done by a machine, says Dr Andrew McAfee, principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute ST ILLUSTRATION: ADAM LEE of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management and co-author of The will be competing with smart machines These would include skills like Second Machine Age. His work explores that can precisely analyse and predict negotiation, expressing empathy, how information technologies are the behaviour of investments. Robo- problem solving and, most of all, the transforming business and society. advisers are on the rise and starting to ability to program computers. A radiographer must match patterns, replace financial advisers and planners. He sounds like he is plugging the he says. So are there any jobs that are safe? Singapore Government’s SkillsFuture “But, at the end of the day, matching Jobs that require creative thinking – like movement that encourages workers to patterns is routine work and machines writing, entrepreneurship or scientific acquire deep and relevant skills. can do such tasks very well, much faster, discovery – may endure, Dr McAfee “Figure out where your passions are, and without getting tired,” explains Dr says. “There is no better time to be an what you’re good at, and how you can McAfee. entrepreneur with a great idea, because race with machines instead of against Machines are quickly acquiring many you can use technology to leverage your them,” he advises. skills which used to be the preserve of inventions,” he says. He calls himself a “tech optimist”, human beings – from understanding Another category of jobs that are safe but adds the qualifier, a “mindful natural language to driving cars – he are those that require social interaction. optimist”.“Imagine a world where the says. “I don’t see nurses or kindergarten robots did all the hard and routine work. “These machines are going to teachers being replaced by robots any They tend the crops, sew the clothes, automate some people, perhaps many time soon,” he says. cook the food, drive the trucks, and of them, out of their jobs.” He encourages workers to attain skills work on all the assembly lines in all Loan officers, for example, can be that are complementary to machines the world’s factories. replaced by algorithms that identify safe – as opposed to those that can be “In this world, everything would borrowers. Stock and equity analysts substituted by machines. be a lot cheaper because labour costs 26 Disruption & Jobs

Dr Andrew McAfee, a principal research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), studies how digital technologies are changing business, the economy and society. His 2014 book on these topics, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, And Prosperity In A Time Of Brilliant Technologies (co-authored with Erik Brynjolfsson) was a New York Times bestseller and was shortlisted for the Financial Times/McKinsey business book of the year award. He writes academic papers, a blog for the Financial Times, and articles for publications including Harvard Business Review, The Economist and The New York Times. He has talked about his work on The Charlie Rose Show and 60 Minutes, at TED, Davos, the Aspen Ideas Festival, and in front of many other audiences. If a job is routine, it can be done by a machine, says Dr McAfee, He was educated at Harvard and MIT, where he is the co-founder of the institute’s PHOTO: EVE PHOTOGRAPHY Initiative on the Digital Economy. would drop to zero. In fact, there’d be a The fifth thing is basic research. startling abundance of stuff. And people “Companies tend to concentrate on would be freed up to do things other applied research, so governments must than work,” he says. support original early-stage research. But governments need to overhaul Most of today’s technological marvels, education systems to help a nation’s from the Internet to the smartphone, people to “race with machines”, instead have a government programme behind of against them. them.” Top on his to-do list for governments As technology marches on, the one is education. option he will not countenance is to “The education system is in need of block the advent of smart machines so Jeremy Howard, the founder and chief executive an overhaul. At the moment, the system that jobs will not be displaced.“We need of Enlitic, a start-up in San Francisco, believes is turning out the kind of workers we to let technology race ahead because it’s artificial intelligence can transform healthcare. needed 50 years ago. bringing all kinds of great things to us in PHOTO: NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SYNDICATE “We are training people to be good at our lives. Technological advances have things where machines are better, which bettered people’s lives at all levels of the “If that’s not good news, I don’t know is a very big mistake. No point focusing pyramid, in all regions of the world. We what good news is.” on the ability to memorise facts, the shouldn’t lose sight of that.” He concedes, though, that automation ability to do routine tasks, the ability to and globalisation will lead to job losses do simple maths – computers are better The education system is in and rising income inequality. The biggest at all those things than we are,” says Dr need of an overhaul. At the winners will be those who create and McAfee. “We need intellectual curiosity, moment, the system is turning own the new machines. problem solving, group work, creativity out the kind of workers we Those on the wrong side of the divide and self-direction – very, very different needed 50 years ago. We are will find it difficult to gain access to kinds of skills.” training people to be good the bounty created by technological But he also admits that with rapid at things where machines progress. machine advances, it is hard to predict are better, which is a very He says: “We need to figure out how what skills are going to be valuable big mistake. ... We need to deal with this. It will be one of the down the road. intellectual curiosity, problem most important issues for governments “We need to learn how to educate to grapple with in the decades to come. and train people to be intellectually solving, group work, creativity “One of the ways to address the flexible, to be able to shift over time as and self-direction – very, very issue is through a negative income requirements shift.” different kinds of skills. tax that provides low-income workers The second is infrastructure. He with an earnings boost. This is worth argues that world-class roads, airports He goes back again to the radiology considering. and networks are investments in the example. “The solution can’t be to hold back future and the foundations of growth. “If we have higher-quality, lower-cost on technological progress.” Next, countries need to develop medical diagnostics, that’s completely Back to the diagnostic radiographers. an environment that is receptive to a good thing for humanity, especially if “Imagine if we develop machines that entrepreneurship. we can take that technology and extend are far more accurate and efficient at “Entrepreneurship is a job-creation it downward to people who currently reading X-rays and scans. Would it be engine. Young businesses, especially fast- don’t have great healthcare or don’t ethical to still use humans to do the growing ones, are a prime source of new have healthcare at all. job, just so that they have a job? I jobs,” he says. “It’s not science fiction any more. think it would be deeply unethical to He is for liberalising immigration For many medical conditions, you can let people continue to do that. This is policies. diagnose them with a smart-phone that’s health, people’s lives are at stake.” “Many of the world’s most talented got a decent camera on it, maybe attach The solution, of course, is to retrain people come to America to build lives some kind of a chip to it, and then you and reskill radiographers to take on and careers, and there’s clear evidence have got absolute-best-in-the-world other jobs. that immigrant-founded companies have medical diagnoses available to people been great job-creation engines.” at the base of the pyramid. [email protected] 

27 Disruption & Jobs

Chua Mui Hoong Opinion Editor, The Straits Times Future economy needs future ready social safety net

As job insecurity looms in a world of churn, we need to attend to the well-being of citizens too

s a consumer, I love start- ups. Airbnb, Uber and car- sharing apps transformed my vacation experiences, ST ILLUSTRATION: opening up cheaper - and MANNY FRANCISCO Amore interesting - accommodation and transport options. You can live Professor Moshe Vardi, computational offered through temporary contracts. in someone’s lovely house, get to engineering don at Rice University in the In a 2015 report, the McKinsey Global know them and their family, drive a United States, predicted last February Institute found that 162 million people neighbour’s car, order food in when you that robots will take over at least 50 per in Europe and the United States - 20 feel like it, and even make new friends cent of jobs in 30 years. to 30 per cent of the working-age instantly via social meet-ups. Singapore is fully aware of the trends. population - were doing some kind of In Singapore, I use Uber, Grab and This is why the report of the Committee independent work. food-delivery platforms I console myself on the Future Economy (CFE) tries so Without permanent work, people that when my job is taken over by a hard to say what Singapore must do to could suffer an acute sense of job robot one day, I can make extra income prepare itself for that tumultuous future. insecurity that erodes their dignity. from renting out my car and extra room There was a lot in the CFE report No government can protect citizens in my apartment. about industry transformation, scaling from the forces of disruption. It As a journalist who likes new ideas up our enterprises, going global, and can’t guarantee everyone full-time, to write about, I find it exciting to live reskilling workers. permanent, meaningful work with a in a world of churn, where technology But there isn’t enough about how to comfortable salary that lets them plan and automation are disrupting jobs, help workers adapt. For example, what for their future. enriching our consumer experience, about social safety nets? It can, however, make sure existing and challenging existing social orders, As former civil servant turned social provision programmes are future- all at once. academic Donald Low wrote: “The ready. But as a worker, and a frail human CFE missed an opportunity to discuss Last year’s widespread discussion being, I find the trends towards how Singapore’s social security and in some countries of a universal basic automation, and looming massive job regulatory systems might be adapted income - an allowance doled out to all, losses, rather disturbing. for what is widely referred to as the regardless of work - is one such attempt They add up to a feeling of job ‘sharing economy’.” to give financial security to citizens. insecurity. I too feel there is a huge gap in the In Singapore, we need not think of Experts point to looming, massive conversations we are having about the such a radical measure yet. But we can job losses. Forrester, a market research future economy, and it has the changing certainly do a lot more to assess if our firm, predicts that robots will eliminate employment status of workers and social security systems are adequate for 6 per cent of jobs in the United States the gnawing, invidious sense of job a world where many people don’t have by 2021, including customer service insecurity that will affect many. work, or work part-time, or do micro- representatives, and truck and taxi In Europe, half of new jobs created jobs for micro-pay for many different drivers. since the global financial crisis were people.

28 Disruption & Jobs

Professor Laura Tyson, who chaired minimum employer CPF contribution employers, to employed workers. The the President’s Council of Economic were specified, for each hour worked CPF system assumes you have an Advisers under the Bill Clinton or each unit of labour?” employer who tops up your fund. Many administration, has argued that there Once you set a unit CPF payment for medical benefits are given by employers. is some consensus on what kind of social each hour or dollar of work performed, The Workfare Income Supplement tops security benefits would work in a gig you can then develop a system where up your income - if you have a job. economy: workers can get multiple CPF micro- If you are jobless, all the above “They should be portable, attached to payments from employers, or companies benefits disappear. Singapore does not individual workers rather than to their that buy their services. have unemployment insurance. For employers. They should be universal, The Uber or Grab driver, part-time those with low savings, a few months of applying to all workers and all forms house cleaner, honestbee grocery shop- joblessness could leave them and their of employment. And they should be per, or TaskRabbit worker, will get his fee, family in penury. pro-rated, linking employer benefit plus an X per cent more to his CPF from The labour market has been tight for contributions to time worked, jobs the employer or buyer of his service, decades and jobs are aplenty. But in completed, or income earned.” that can be used for his future housing, the disrupted future economy, we can’t Singapore is fortunate in that our healthcare and retirement needs. rely on that. Already, the younger, more Central Provident Fund (CPF) system Beyond the CPF system, there is also tech-savvy Uber driver is disrupting the is already portable and universal, as is the question of whether the protections livelihoods of many taxi uncles, some of our MediShield Life. Can CPF also be employees take for granted are available whom will find it hard to get other jobs. pro-rated? to gig economy workers. Examples are The prospect of joblessness, or job Under current laws, those who annual leave, medical leave, maternity insecurity, is looking very real. employ part-time workers need to pay leave, defraying of medical bills, and As a nation, we should be paying CPF. But not if the workers are deemed workers’ compensation under workplace as much attention to the future of contract or freelance workers, or own safety and health regulations. citizens’ well-being, as to the future account workers. Even our much-vaunted CPF system of the economy. For what is the point Can a system be devised to have has a serious drawback in a disrupted of having a vibrant future economy, if pro-rated CPF payments? I don’t see economy of the future: It works only hundreds of thousands of our citizens why not. when you have a job. suffer acute anxiety from joblessness, MP Tan Wu Meng in a commentary In fact, most of Singapore’s social or job insecurity, and without adequate last November suggested: “What if a security measures are funnelled via social safety nets? 

Staying indispensable amid disruption Here are some ways to try to become indispensable

Trendspotting Develop a unique Stay abreast of industry knowledge base or skill developments, attend trade events, Excel in areas where others follow thought leaders who are are weak. talking about your sector.

Collaborate in new ways Cultivate a life outside work Companies are using more People with many interests – even freelancers and soloists, hence if not related to work – are seen it will be important to learn to as bringing more to the table, than work with disparate teams. those who are uni-dimensional.

Build your brand Pay attention to decisions Knowledge workers should focus on you make building their own brand image online and Keep in mind the bigger picture, improve their entrepreneurial work, as instead of what benefits you. more companies shift to the gig economy.

Develop emotional intelligence Seek honest feedback Developing empathy, embracing Hear what people say about vulnerability, building strong working with you, ask how you connections with your co-workers and can optimise your strengths and network will help in the long term. improve your skills.

SOURCES: WWW.FASTCOMPANY.COM, SALARY.COM, FORBES

29 Focus on Singapore SINGAPORE’S WATER STORY Keeping the nation’s 1868 MacRitchie then known as taps flowing Impounding Reservoir or Thomson Reservoir. Pierce reservoir and Upper Seletar 1927 reservoir were built in the 1900’s Water agreement signed between British-controlled Millions are being Singapore and Johor Sultan to import water. invested to maintain This is superseded by the 1961 agreement Lin Yangchen Singapore’s quest for Journalist, The Straits Times a robust water supply. 1942 Singapore’s reservoirs fall to n a stretch of reclaimed land the invading Japanese and the water supply to the city is in Tuas, a water factory is compromised by extensive taking shape. Singapore’s third damage, contributing to the 1961 British decision to surrender First water agreement, allowing desalination plant, expected to Singapore to draw water from areas be ready later this year, is one of in Johor for 50 years Oseveral infrastructure projects in the pipeline 1962 Second water agreement, to ensure a nation surrounded by water has allowing Singapore to draw 1963 enough to meet its needs. up to 250 million gallons a PUB formed to replace At two older plants nearby, sea water day of water from Johor River City Council as statutory for 99 years, till 2061 board in charge of is already filtered and passed through electricity, piped gas and membranes to remove dissolved salts and 2061 potable water. 10-month Johor water import 1965 water rationing begins in minerals, as part of a process to get water agreement expires Both water agreements are response to drought fit to drink. guaranteed by Malaysia in Singapore’s fourth national tap – desalinated the Separation Agreement, water – is part of a long, and often little-heard, which is registered with the 1971 story of this nation’s quest for self-sufficiency United Nations “Water Is Precious” public education in man’s most valuable resource. campaign launched Today, Newater meets up to 40 per cent of 1972 Singapore’s water demand and desalination Singapore’s rst Water Master Plan, which outlined strategies 25 per cent. for ensuring a diversied and 1975 - 1979 And plans are under way to boost capacity adequate supply • Dam constructed to create Upper and so both meet 55 per cent and 30 per cent of By 2060 Lower Peirce Reservoirs; Kranji Reservoir water needs respectively by 2060, before the Newater is expected to completed; Pandan Reservoir meet up to 55% of • Pulau Tekong Reservoir second water agreement expires. Singapore’s future water But the cost of operating and maintaining demand, and desalinated 1981 - 1986 the water system has risen over the years, water will meet up to 30% • Tengeh, Poyan, Murai and 1990 of this demand Sarimbun Reservoirs Supplement to 1962 Agreement signed prompting the Government to review the • PUB takes over management of allowing Singapore to build a dam across price of water – and raise it by 30 per cent Jurong Lake from JTC Corporation Johor River to increase its yield and it becomes a reservoir over two phases, this July and next. • Lower Seletar Reservoir, It is the first price hike in 17 years. 2025 Bedok Reservoir created 1991 The previous hike, phased in from 1997 • DTSS Phase 2 Water Conservation Tax introduced to 2000, saw tariffs go up by 20 per cent to 1994 Linggiu Reservoir built 100 per cent on a scale depending on usage. upstream of the Johor River 1997-2000 Costs have gone up sharply since then. Last The Government increases water prices progressively over a period of three years 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2014 2017 2018 2020 • Bedok Newater Plant • SingSpring Launch of • Deep Tunnel 1961 water agreement • Lower Seletar Second phase • Marina East Kranji Newater Plant Desalination Plant Active, Sewerage System lapses. Singapore hands Waterworks Today of water price Desalination Plant • Beautiful, Newater can meet 40% of our • Keppel Seghers Ulu Pandan • Tuaspring (DTSS) Phase 1 over Johor waterworks to hike kicks in • Jurong Island Desalination Plant Clean Waters Changi Water current water demand, while the Newater Plant programme • Malaysia two existing desalination plants Desalination Plant • SembCorp Changi Newater Reclamation Plant • Punggol Reservoir can meet 25% of this demand Plant • Serangoon Reservoir • Marina Reservoir • BEWG-UESH Newater Plant • Tuas Desalination Plant 3 • Tuas Water Reclamation Plant First phase of latest and integrated water price hike kicks in Newater Plant

Water catchment area has increased from half to two-thirds of Singapore’s land surface with the completion of the Marina, Punggol and Serangoon Reservoirs. 30 Focus on Singapore SINGAPORE’S month, national water agency PUB said It is a price comparable to that in set-up than a system in which everything WATER it cost about $500 million to run the major cities in developed countries with flows into sewage, such as in London. system in 2000. By 2015, this had risen large rivers to draw from. It is also a PUB said sudden surges of water to $1.3 billion. This includes collecting price that makes possible considerable caused by stormwater flowing through STORY used water, treating water, producing investments in the future. a combined system will reduce the 1868 Newater and desalination, as well as The years from 2000 to 2015 saw $7 effectiveness of the microorganisms MacRitchie then known as maintaining water pipelines. billion invested in water infrastructure used for biological treatment in water Impounding Reservoir or Thomson Reservoir. Pierce – or $430 million a year. PUB expects reclamation plants. reservoir and Upper Seletar 1927 WHAT PRICE, this to almost double to $800 million A Deep Tunnel Sewerage System reservoir were built in the 1900’s Water agreement signed between every year from this year to 2021, to is also being built to collect, treat, British-controlled WATER? fund major investments in strengthening reclaim and dispose of used water from Singapore and Johor As Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat Sultan to import water. the third and fourth taps, and build and industries, homes and businesses, that This is superseded by and Environment and Water Resources repair pipes and pumps. There are also will feed into a water reclamation plant the 1961 agreement Minister Masagos Zulkifli reminded higher costs of manpower, materials and Newater factory, and should be Parliament this month, the cornerstone and chemicals, and more difficult and ready by 2025. 1942 of Singapore’s water policy is the pricing expensive developments needed, such This determination to make every Singapore’s reservoirs fall to of water on sound economic principles the invading Japanese and the as having to dig deeper underground last drop of water matter has seen water supply to the city is to reflect what is called its Long Run to lay pipelines. other countries wanting to learn from compromised by extensive Marginal Cost (LRMC). damage, contributing to the 1961 Singapore’s experience, and spawned British decision to surrender First water agreement, allowing This reflects the cost of supplying METICULOUS opportunities for home-grown water Singapore to draw water from areas the next available drop of water, companies. in Johor for 50 years WATER PLANNING 1962 which is likely to come from Newater Second water agreement, and desalination plants, and enabling Less noticed but equally crucial to [email protected] allowing Singapore to draw 1963 investments in such plants. water management are several intangible up to 250 million gallons a PUB formed to replace Mr Masagos noted the first-year aspects of Singapore’s approach to water. day of water from Johor River City Council as statutory for 99 years, till 2061 board in charge of price of the first desalination plant, One is minimising leakage. Only 5 electricity, piped gas and SingSpring, which opened in 2005, was per cent of treated water in Singapore 2061 potable water. 10-month Johor water import 1965 water rationing begins in 78 cents per cubic m. By comparison, is lost through leakages – a figure bested agreement expires Both water agreements are response to drought the first-year price of the latest plant by Tokyo but ahead of the United States guaranteed by Malaysia in in Marina East, set to open in 2020, is and Hong Kong. the Separation Agreement, $1.08 per cubic m – an increase of some Some developing cities can lose as which is registered with the 1971 40 per cent. much as 60 per cent of their water United Nations “Water Is Precious” public education “It is only through right pricing that through leaks, notes water expert Asit campaign launched we can have everyone valuing water Biswas at the National University of 1972 as a strategic resource and consciously Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Singapore’s rst Water Master Plan, which outlined strategies conserving it,” he said. Public Policy. for ensuring a diversied and 1975 - 1979 Understandably, the price hike Another not-so-visible reward of adequate supply • Dam constructed to create Upper and generated much discussion on the Singapore’s meticulous water planning By 2060 Lower Peirce Reservoirs; Kranji Reservoir ground, prompting ministers to point is that two-thirds of the country serves Newater is expected to completed; Pandan Reservoir meet up to 55% of • Pulau Tekong Reservoir out that, in reality, most businesses will as a catchment area for drinking water Singapore’s future water see a rise of less than $1 a day, and for supply, among the highest in the world. demand, and desalinated 1981 - 1986 most households, a jump of less than Furthermore, the price of water water will meet up to 30% • Tengeh, Poyan, Murai and 1990 of this demand Sarimbun Reservoirs Supplement to 1962 Agreement signed $12 a month. enables not just the production and • PUB takes over management of allowing Singapore to build a dam across And at the start of a month-long delivery of potable water, but also the Jurong Lake from JTC Corporation Johor River to increase its yield and it becomes a reservoir water conservation campaign, Deputy treatment of sewage and industrial waste • Lower Seletar Reservoir, Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean pointed water so it can safely go back into the 2025 Bedok Reservoir created 1991 out that a 330ml bottle of water costing environment. • DTSS Phase 2 Water Conservation Tax introduced $1 from a supermarket will pay for One fact not often appreciated is 1994 Linggiu Reservoir built 1,000 bottles of clean water from the that Singapore has separate systems for upstream of the Johor River 1997-2000 tap after the full price rise. drainage and sewage, a more efficient The Government increases water prices progressively over a period of three years 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2014 2017 2018 2020 • Bedok Newater Plant • SingSpring Launch of • Deep Tunnel 1961 water agreement • Lower Seletar Second phase • Marina East Kranji Newater Plant Desalination Plant Active, Sewerage System lapses. Singapore hands Waterworks Today of water price Desalination Plant • Beautiful, Newater can meet 40% of our • Keppel Seghers Ulu Pandan • Tuaspring (DTSS) Phase 1 over Johor waterworks to hike kicks in • Jurong Island Desalination Plant Clean Waters Changi Water current water demand, while the Newater Plant programme • Malaysia two existing desalination plants Desalination Plant • SembCorp Changi Newater Reclamation Plant • Punggol Reservoir can meet 25% of this demand Plant • Serangoon Reservoir • Marina Reservoir • BEWG-UESH Newater Plant • Tuas Desalination Plant 3 • Tuas Water Reclamation Plant First phase of latest and integrated water price hike kicks in Newater Plant

SOURCE: PUB PHOTOS: ST FILE PHOTOS, BERITA HARIAN, LIANHE ZAOBAO, ISTOCKPHOTO STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS: MARLONE RUBIO 31 Aviation Karamjit Kaur Senior Aviation Correspondent The Straits Times Changi’s Jewel shaping up well for sparkling start in 2019

Special glass facade, indoor waterfall among highlights of $1.7 billion icon to boost airport’s leading air hub status

he construction of a future Jewel at Changi has reached the halfway mark, putting the airport on track to build an icon that aims to make TSingapore a more attractive air hub and destination. When completed, Jewel Changi The Jewel at the Changi Airport under construction in March. PHOTO: ALPHONSUS CHERN Airport will glitter with more than 9,600 pieces of glass, specially made in the The airport, however, sees it as a or less between flights would normally United States, that will frame its facade. necessary cost to stay ahead in the race stay within the sterile zone close to At the site, in front of Terminal 1, for premier air hub status. boarding gates while those with longer work was in full swing when The Straits Ms Hung Jean, chief executive of layovers, like more than 10 hours, are Times visited in March. Jewel Changi Airport Development, more likely to unwind and rest in a hotel. The facade and works inside will be said: “A key vision for Jewel is to be a “For those in between, the hassle of completed by the fourth quarter of next world-class lifestyle destination that will going into town may not be worth it, but be a game changer for Changi Airport they can also do some serious shopping year, in time for an early 2019 opening, amid intensifying competition on the and walking around. said project head Ashith Alva. The five- global airport landscape.” “Jewel would be great to cater to this storey, mainly commercial development This will “significantly augment group of travellers, especially the elderly with five basement floors will house Changi Airport’s status as a leading and those with young children who may about 300 shops and food and beverage international air hub, drawing interna- not be so inclined to take a cab and outlets. tional travellers to Changi Airport and walk about outside of a temperature- Highlights include a 40m indoor Singapore,” she said. controlled environment.” waterfall and a five-storey garden While the jury is still out on whether It is important for an airport to set with about 2,500 trees and 100,000 Jewel will make Singapore a more itself apart from its rivals and this is what shrubs from countries including Brazil, attractive destination for visitors, or lure Jewel aims to do, said Mr Ramanathan Australia, Thailand and the US. travellers who would otherwise have Mohandas, head of the diploma Directly connected to T1, Jewel will connected at other airports, experts programme in aviation management at be linked to the other two terminals via agree it will please those who do come. Republic Polytechnic. air-conditioned bridges with travelators. Singapore Management University’s “This investment in infrastructure At $1.7 billion, the project is a Assistant Professor Terence Fan, who and facilities is to offer a distinctive considerable investment for Changi specialises in transport issues, said Jewel experience to the travelling public, Airport Group, which owns 51 per cent should appeal to a growing number of which will help Changi stay ahead of of Jewel Changi Airport Development, transit travellers, who account for about the competition,” he said. with the remaining stake held by a third of Changi’s total traffic. CapitaLand Mall Asia. He said: “Passengers with two hours [email protected]

32 Aviation

FUTURE Peering into Changi’s Jewel Jewel T1 Changi CHANGI Changi Airport COAST Jewel Changi Airport, a ve-storey development with ve basement ChangiROAD Airport oors, is on track to open in early 2019. Being built in front of Terminal 1, PIE it will offer travellers a plethora of shopping and dining options and Future Terminal 5 T3 T2 visual treats, including a 40m indoor waterfall. Karamjit Kaur and ECP Lim Yong take a closer look. AirportTerminal 4 CROSS-SECTIONAL VIEW LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4 Aviation facilities Main entrance • Air-conditioned travelator Yotel Changi Airport with (early check-in, of Jewel. bridges – about 300m long – about 130 rooms. integrated multi-modal to link Jewel to T2 and T3. transport lounge). Future Terminal 5 PAN-ISLAND About Skytrain 64m EXPRESSWAY

ECP

LEVEL 5 BASEMENTS 2-5 BASEMENT 1 The skytrain Canopy Park will feature Parking for about 2,500 Taxi stand and between the two park space of approximately cars (retail and F&B car pick-up. terminals will run 13,000 sq m with gardens, outlets available from through Jewel. walking trails and dining Basement 2 to Level 5). outlets.

Linkbridge leading to T3 departure hall

Linkbridge leading to T2 departure hall

Project cost Total site Total gross oor area UNIQUE FEATURES $1.7 billion 3.5ha 134,000 sq m • Forest Valley A ve-storey garden with about 2,500 trees and 100,000 shrubs from countries like Brazil, Australia, Facilities for Indoor Retail Thailand and America. airport gardens and 40m indoor waterfall operations attractions 53,800 sq m • (about 300 shops Transforms into an enchanting light and sound show 18,500 sq m 21,700 sq m and restaurants) with special lighting effects in the evenings.

JEWEL’S ROOF FACADE CONSTRUCTION TIMELINE Close to 18,000 pieces • May 2013 to Oct 2014: Design • Oct 2016: Completion of all of steel beams. development and calling of tender structural works from Over 6,000 steel nodes – • Oct 2014: Award of main basements 1 to 5 pieces that connect the steel contractor • Fourth quarter 2018: Construction beams and glass panels • Dec 2014: Groundbreaking and works expected to be completed Over 9,600 pieces start of construction works • Early 2019: Opening of specially manufactured glass. SOURCE AND ARTIST’S IMPRESSIONS: JEWEL CHANGI AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS

33 Field Notes

Tan Hui Yee Regional Correspondent, The Straits Times Thailand’s unrecognised daughters of Buddhism

Female monks from Songdhammakalyani monastery blessing devotees after receiving alms from them. PHOTO: TAN HUI YEE

The country’s a rite of passage, and where villagers a vice-rector at the monk-administered cook food to offer as alms each morning. Mahachulalongkornrajavidyalaya monastic authority This is not so much because there University, tells The Straits Times. “It does not recognise are only about 100 female monks is about monastic discipline.” female monks, even nationwide – compared with some What this means is that while foreign 300,000 male monks. It is because bhikkunis ordained under the Mahayana though they remain officially, they do not exist. branch of Buddhism common in China, respected by many Thailand’s monastic authority, the Taiwan and Singapore are recognised Supreme Sangha Council, does not as monastics in the kingdom, Thai recognise bhikkunis, the term used for bhikkunis are still referred to as “Miss” he pleasantries are petering female monks. The male equivalent is or “Mrs” in identification cards that bear out as my taxi hurtles along bhikkus. photographs of them with shaven heads the highway. My jocular It reasons that since monastic rules and donning monastic robes. Their driver quizzes me about the require women to be ordained by temples do not enjoy tax-free status, and temple where I am headed. both bhikkunis and bhikkus – and the they do not receive financial support T“It’s a temple run by female monks,” lineage of bhikkunis under the orthodox that the state gives to senior monks. I tell him. Theravada branch of Buddhism practised Officially, the closest women can He pauses at this unfamiliar concept in Thailand is extinct – ordaining a get to monkhood in Thailand is by before asking: “Do they receive alms?” female monk is wrong. donning white robes, shaving their Saffron-robed women are a curious “It is not that we don’t recognise heads, vowing celibacy and living the entity in Buddhist-majority Thailand, women’s abilities. And it is not about life of an ascetic as a mae chee or lay where men are commonly ordained as human rights,” Phra Methithammajarn, nun. Like monks, mae chee cannot vote,

34 Field Notes but they occupy a lower status and do not receive monastic benefits. Yet the number of Thai bhikkunis – aided by Theravada ordinations carried out in Sri Lankan temples – has been growing. They are now scattered across provinces like Chiang Mai in the north, Yasothon in the north-east and Songkhla in the south. Tensions came to the fore last December when a group of bhikkunis tried to pay their respects to the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whose body has been lying in Bangkok’s Grand Palace since his death in October. A palace official gave them the green light prior to their visit. When they arrived, they were confronted by another official who declared them “illegal” and suggested they swop their saffron robes for black mourners’ attire to join the lay people’s queue. In response, an aide to the abbess of the temple involved, Songdhammakaly- ani monastery, lodged a petition with both the National Human Rights Com- mission as well as a state panel called the Committee on Unfair Gender Dis- crimination Complaints. Both agencies have yet to announce their findings. Residents living near temples with bhikkunis have been far more welcoming. Female monk Ayya Visuddhi Yana and male monk Bhante Bodhinano. Female monks are a curious On a Sunday morning at Song- entity in Thailand as the Supreme Sangha Council does not recognise them. PHOTO: TAN HUI YEE dhammakalyani monastery, about an hour’s drive from Bangkok, the clang Their brisk pace is broken only when male monastic elders can exert over of a temple bell at the crack of dawn they spot people kneeling by the road them should they decide to let women draws more than a dozen bhikkunis and with their palms joined in respect. into their fold. female novices out into the prayer hall. Songdhammakalyani’s abbess, “That would be difficult,” she says. Shortly after, three of them head out 72-year-old Dhammananda Bhikkuni, “We don’t want to get in there.” to nearby villages cradling alms bowls. was the first Thai woman to receive a The more outspoken critics, such as full Theravada ordination in Sri Lanka in former Bangkok Post editorial pages 2003. During a religious lecture she con- editor Sanitsuda Ekachai, have slammed ducts that Sunday morning, she relates the clergy for its “authoritarian and how someone once likened her work to feudal system”, where a steeply a “crack” on the “wall” of patriarchy. hierarchical order remains largely “We all have to help, to be those unaccountable despite temples receiving small cracks on the wall... to make it billions of baht in donations every year. collapse,” she says. Recent headline-grabbing accounts “Then we can see the Buddha on of monks taking drugs, having sex and the other side, with arms wide open, flying on private jets with luxury bags welcoming those daughters who are have done little to shore up the image ordained.” of the clergy. Dhammananda Bhikkuni, who zips Women who take up the monkhood around the monastic compound on a face not just opposition but confusion three-wheeled electric scooter, says her from friends and relatives. Samaneri all-female temple in Nakhon Pathom Dhammarajata, 57, who became a province is not really out to prove that novice at Songdhammakalyani last year, women can do better. But it conducts recalls being asked: “What do I call you what it calls socially engaged Buddhism, after you are ordained? Mae chee?” by reaching out to prison inmates, No one insulted her though. “They planting organic vegetables and running don’t, because they don’t know we a drop-in centre for recyclable items. exist,” the former accountant says wryly. Dhammananda Bhikkuni,, the abbess of the While seeking recognition for female monastery, adjusting the position of one of her disciples during meditation practice. monks, Dhammananda Bhikkuni is wary PHOTO: TAN HUI YEE about the kind of control the nation’s [email protected] 

35 Travel

Tan Keng Yao For The Business Times Luxury on wheels

Here are five train train ride can be a thrill for the experience of stunning scenery that rolls past your window. But sometimes, its allure goes beyond that. It journeys that pamper can also be about the unparalleled service and luxuries that present you so much, you will themselves on the journey. Take a look at are some of the world’s not want to disembark. Abest luxury train rides that bring to life the romance of the rails. Blue Train, South Africa Nelson Mandela, Naomi Campbell and Margaret Thatcher have been guests on the Blue Train, among many other celebrities and heads of state. And you, too, can travel like a dignitary on what has been billed as a five-star hotel on wheels. The train plies a 1,600km route between Cape Town and Pretoria, trundling past craggy mountains and vast plains, which you can view from plush armchairs. For more info, visit: www.bluetrain.co.za

Seven Stars, Kyushu, Japan Maharajas’ Express, India The Japanese know a thing or two about For a train named after Indian monarchs, hospitality. you expect nothing less than the full And a journey on this deluxe cruise royal treatment. And that is what you get, train that trundles around Kyushu will starting with a choice of cabins that run allow you to experience what they call from the deluxe to the presidential suite, Eastern & Oriental omotenashi, or service elevated to an art. which takes up an entire carriage and The suites in the train have been comes with two bedrooms, a living and Express, Singapore to furnished by artisans in a fusion of Western dining room and an attached bathroom Thailand and Japanese aesthetics. And most people with bath tub. Personal butlers attend See Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand would agree that the view from Deluxe to your every need while meals can be in a different way, through the picture Suite A at the end car is unparalleled. had in its two restaurants. windows of the Eastern & Oriental For more info, visit: www.cruisetrain- For more info, visit: www.maharajas- Express. sevenstars.jp/en express-india.com This train, which plies a route between Singapore and Bangkok, rolls past rural landscapes, bustling cities and gleaming pagodas. If The Ghan, Australia you’re feeling social, you can hang Great Southern Rail’s The Ghan runs 2,979km out in the colonial-style, teakwood from Adelaide in the south of Australia to Observation Car in the end carriage Darwin in the north, passing by Alice Springs, for sightseeing by day or a cocktail and taking passengers past a spectacular or two at night. landscape that segues from pastoral lands to If not, retreat to your private dry red desert to tropical greenery. cabin. For more info, visit: www.greatsouthernrail. For more info, visit: www.belmond. com.au/trains/the-ghan com/eastern-and-oriental-express

PHOTOS: TOURISM NT, JR KYUSHU, MAHARAJAS’ EXPRESS, SCRIPPS NETWORKS INTERACTIVE 36 Think: How to show what you want to say? Think: How to turn busy, distracted eyeballs your way?

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