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Singapore Grocery Retail Singapore Industry Focus Singapore Grocery Retail Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 1 Feb 2019 Tough online space landscape to STI : 3,190.17 benefit brick and mortar players • Changes in online space show difficulties in competing Analyst Alfie YEO +65 6682 3717 Andy SIM, CFA +65 6682 3718 with incumbent brick and mortar players [email protected] [email protected] • Brick and mortar players may strengthen their presence as online players reorganise themselves • Competition may be keener, but it is still challenging for new smaller players that lack scale to compete • Re-iterate BUY for Sheng Siong; maintain HOLD on Dairy Farm Online space seeing changes - changes for Honestbee STOCKS and Lazada. Two recent developments in Singapore’s 12-mth Grocery Retail Sector – 1) NTUC Fairprice is ending its Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating partnership with Honestbee and; 2) Lazada will consolidate its online grocery retail arm, RedMart, onto its platform. Sheng Siong 1.11 1,240 1.24 5.7 19.4 BUY DairyGroup Farm Ltd 9.03 12,215 9.35 (0.4) 6.2 HOLD Changes to current arrangements may improve efficiencies. We see the change in Lazada to consolidate Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. operations as an attempt to improve scale and operational Closing price as of 31 Jan 2019 efficiencies, while we think that the NTUC Fairprice and Honestbee partnership may not have performed to expectations. Based on publicly available information, our initial view is that no changes would have been necessary if both businesses were operating and progressing well. In our view, the changes in the online grocery space could bode well for brick and mortar players. Challenges faced by smaller new players in the online space allows incumbents to strengthen their foothold. New entrants in recent years, including Redmart, Amazon Prime, and Honestbee’s Habitat, have all tried to chip market share from brick and mortar incumbents like NTUC Fairprice, Dairy Farm, and Sheng Siong. But new players will need to build scale by ramping up volumes, product varieties, and obtaining favourable credit terms from suppliers, otherwise, they may find it challenging to compete profitably. This leads us to believe that the challenges faced by smaller new players in the online space allows incumbents to showcase their differential product offerings and strengths, vis-à-vis new entrants. Bottom up investing strategy. We prefer Sheng Siong to Dairy Farm as the rise of the mass market segment is likely to impact Dairy Farm’s higher end segment and convenience stores. ed: JS/ sa: PY, CW, CS Industry Focus Singapore Grocery Retail Online grocery space in Singapore is undergoing Smaller players are also opening up new stores albeit at a changes higher cost. Meanwhile, we observe that smaller players such as Hao Mart are trying to grow their footprint by Changes from Honestbee and Lazada. Two recent outbidding their competitors for new HDB supermarket developments in Singapore’s Grocery Retail Sector – 1) space. We believe that smaller players’ expanding scale such NTUC Fairprice is ending its partnership with Honestbee and; as Hao Mart (which has more than 35 small outlets) will 2) Lazada will consolidate its online grocery retail arm, greatly improve their working capital requirements aided by RedMart. into its platform. better credit terms provided by suppliers. But we may see lower operating margins in the form of higher rental Bodes well for brick and mortar players. We believe that expenses since these smaller players may have to outbid the there is no reason for both NTUC Fairprice and Lazada to competition to secure shop spaces. shift away from the status quo if the partnership and parent independent subsidiary arrangement were blossoming. We Lower number of HDB new outlets in recent quarters, less see the change in Lazada to consolidate operations as an competition from new players for now. Tenders for new attempt to improve scale and operational efficiency, while supermarket outlets have somewhat slowed down – with no the NTUC Fairprice and Honestbee partnership may not have open tenders in the latter part of 2018 since August. We are performed to expectations. Based on publicly available aware that HDB is conducting a few closed re-tenders for information, our initial view is that no changes would have supermarket outlets that had leases terminated by previous been necessary if both businesses were operating and operators. We believe reasons to terminate could range progressing well. from competition to poor sales, resulting in high costs and low profitability. Nonetheless, HDB is still planning for more Competition and lack of economies of scale to turn in new stores in its estates. There are will five new sufficient profitability may have played a part. These changes supermarkets up for open tender in the next six months and in the online grocery space should bode well for brick and that would benefit players that are still in expansion mode. mortar players as this implies that changes are needed in the online players’ business models (particularly in the case of Upcoming open tenders for HDB supermarkets RedMart) to better compete. Collapsing some overlapping Estate Location Size (sqm) functions at Lazada and RedMart could lead to cost savings Punggol West 322 Sumang Walk 500 and efficiencies. We note that there is a range of non-food Tampines 602A Tampines Ave 9 600 items on RedMart anyway. Sembawang 365 Sembawang Cres 500 Sembawang 361 Sembawang Cres. 500 More new players but it will be challenging for them Woodlands 182 Woodlands St 13 800 to ramp up with their smaller scale Source: Place2Lease, DBS Bank New players without scale may find it difficult to compete Reiterate Buy for Sheng Siong, HOLD for Dairy Farm with incumbents. Competition in Singapore’s Grocery Retail scene has grown in recent years first with the entry of online Bottom up strategy. We advocate a selective bottom up grocery retail players such as Redmart and Amazon Prime, stock picking strategy due to the existence of competition in sharing the pie with brick and mortar incumbents like NTUC the market. We believe challenges faced by new smaller Fairprice, Dairy Farm and Sheng Siong. Evidently, some players and in the online space allows incumbents to incumbents are rationalising their operations in the light of strengthen their foothold. We prefer Sheng Siong to Dairy the changing landscape such as the planned closure of at Farm as we see the rise of the mass market segment least seven Giant outlets by Dairy Farm from 3Q18 to 1Q19. impacting Dairy Farm’s higher end segment and This was followed by Honestbee’s opening its Habitat outlet, convenience stores. a high-tech supermarket that uses mobile technology for consumers to make purchases. While new players may give the incumbents a run for their money, we also note that those without sufficient scale and relationship with key suppliers, will find it difficult to compete profitably. Page 2 Industry Focus Singapore Grocery Retail Sheng Siong (SSG SP, BUY, TP S$1.24). We re-iterate BUY players eventually decide to move offline through on Sheng Siong for its strong presence in offering acquisitions. Sheng Siong trades at 22x FY19F PE, below competitive prices and a large variety of fresh products in regional peer average of 28x (25x excluding Indonesia the mass market space. Due to these competitive strengths, peers). Our TP of S$1.24 in addition to dividend yield of Sheng Siong still has a stronghold in the mass market store 3.1% offers total return of about 15%. format space despite competition from online and smaller players. Extension of its warehouse which is due to open this Dairy Farm (DFI SP, HOLD, TP US$9.35). We are neutral on year will help to support higher gross margins as well. A DFI and have a HOLD call for now as we believe share price minimum of seven newly opened stores in 2018 will also has priced in future growth prospects, including Yonghui’s enjoy a full 12 months of revenue contribution this year. We earnings and the potential value of its stake in Robinson see Sheng Siong as a prime takeover candidate due to its Retail Holdings. Stock is now fairly priced as our TP for DFI vast store network and logistics chain, especially if online based on SOTP is US$9.35, at <5% upside. Page 3 Industry Focus Singapore Grocery Retail DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 1 Feb 2019 11:22:28 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 1 Feb 2019 11:49:33 (SGT) Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Bank unless otherwise specified. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.
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