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2003 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Volume 20 PHHQ esex2hiivywix2isi 2olume2PH olume2PH PHHQ 22222xumer2I poreign2hiret2snvestmentX2rendsD2swD nd2y2xegotitions hougls2rF2frooksD2imm2ioqin2pnD2nd2ve2F2umulong ehnologil2pillovers2from2poreign2hiret2snvestment e2urvey imm2ioqin2pn he2ole2of2heentrliztion2in2romoting2iffetive2hooling in2heveloping2esi tere2F2fehrmnD2enil2fF2heollikrD2nd2veeEing2oon vessons2of2the2esin2pinnil2grisisX ht2gn2n2irly2rning2ystem2wodel2ell2 sc tuzhong2hung2nd2wlolm2howling 2222222222 xumer2I Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City P.O. Box 789 0980 Manila, Philippines http://www.adb.org/Economics ISSN: 0116-1105 Publication Stock No.: 090403 Printed in the Philippines isiesex2hiivywix Editor Ifzal Ali Managing Editor Ernesto M. Pernia Editorial Assistant Cherry Lynn T. Zafaralla Editorial Board MONTEK AHLUWALIA, International Monetary Fund PETER MCCAWLEY, Asian Development Bank MOHAMMED ARIFF, Malaysian Institute of Institute, Tokyo Economic Research SEIJI NAYA, Department of Economic JERE BEHRMAN, University of Pennsylvania Development & Tourism, Honolulu PRANAB BHARDAN, University of California, M. G. QUIBRIA, Asian Development Bank Berkeley MARTIN RAVALLION, World Bank NANCY BIRDSALL, Center for Global Development, AMARTYA SEN, Trinity College, Cambridge Washington, D.C. BINAYAK SEN, Bangladesh Institute of RAUL V. FABELLA, University of the Philippines Development Studies YUJIRO HAYAMI, GRIPS/FASID Joint Graduate HADI SOESASTRO, Centre for Strategic Program, Tokyo and International Studies, Jakarta ULRICH HIEMENZ, OECD Development Centre BYUNG NAK SONG, Seoul National University YOSHIHIRO IWASAKI, Asian Development Bank CHALONGPHOB SUSSANGKARN, Thailand LAWRENCE LAU, Stanford University Development Research Institute JUNGSOO LEE, Asian Development Bank CHIA SIOW YUE, Institute of JUSTIN YIFU LIN, Peking University, Beijing International Affairs, Singapore The Asian Development Review is a professional journal for disseminating the results of economic and development research carried out by staff and resource persons of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Review stresses policy and operational relevance of development issues rather than the technical aspects of economics and other social sciences. Articles are intended for readership among economists and social scientists in government, private sector, academia, and international organizations. The Review also invites contributions from external scholars and researchers dealing with Asian and Pacific development issues. All submitted manuscripts are subject to review by two external referees and one ADB staff member. Opinions expressed in the Review are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADB. Please direct all editorial correspondence to the Managing Editor, Asian Development Review, Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong, 0401 Metro Manila, Philippines. For more information, please visit the Web sites of the Review at http://www.adb.org/Documents/Periodicals/ADR and the Asian Development Bank at http://www.adb.org Vol. 20 No. 1 © 2003, Asian Development Bank ISSN 0116-1105 isiesex2hiivywix olume2PH PHHQ xumer2I poreign2hiret2snvestmentX I rendsD2swD2nd2y2xegotitions hougls2rF2frooksD2imm2ioqin2pnD nd2ve2F2umulong ehnologil2pillovers2from2poreign QR hiret2snvestmente2urvey imm2iqin2pn he2ole2of2heentrliztion2in2romoting SU iffetive2hooling2in2heveloping2esi tere2F2fehrmnD2enil2fF2heollikrD2nd2veeEing2oon vessons2of2the2esin2pinnil2grisisX IHH ht2gn2n2irly2rning2ystem2wodel ell2 sc tuzhong2hung2nd2wlolm2howling Foreign Direct Investment: Trends, TRIMs, and WTO Negotiations DOUGLAS H. BROOKS, EMMA XIAOQIN FAN, AND LEA R. SUMULONG Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have increased dramatically in recent decades. As developing countries, particularly in Asia, remove restrictions and implement policies to attract FDI inflows, trade and investment have become increasingly intertwined. As such, there have been growing calls for a multilateral framework of foreign investment rules to be negotiated under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper reviews recent developments in FDI flows and their impacts in developing Asia, and the importance of the policy context in which those flows occur. It discusses advantages and disadvantages of including FDI in WTO negotiations, and related policy options for developing Asian economies. I. INTRODUCTION Until the 1980s, most developing countries viewed foreign direct invest- ment (FDI) with great wariness. The sheer size and magnitude of FDI by multinational corporations (MNCs) was viewed as a threat to host countries, rais- ing concerns about MNCs’ capacity to influence economic and political affairs. These fears were driven by the colonial experience of many developing countries and by the view that FDI was the modern form of economic colonialism and ex- ploitation. In addition, MNCs were frequently suspected of engaging in unfair business practices, such as rigged transfer pricing and price fixing through their links with their parent companies. In recent years, however, FDI restrictions have been dramatically reduced as a result of a host of factors—accelerating technological change, emergence of globally integrated production and marketing networks, existence of bilateral in- vestment treaties, prescriptions from multilateral development banks, and positive evidence from developing countries that have opened their doors to FDI. In addi- tion, the drying up of commercial bank lending due to debt crises brought many developing countries to reform their investment policies to attract more stable forms of foreign capital, as FDI appeared to be an attractive alternative to bank loans as a source of capital inflows. In the process, incentives and subsidies were Principal Economist, Economist, and Economics Analyst, respectively, in the Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division of the Asian Development Bank. The authors would like to thank Hal Hill, Jeffrey Liang, Theodore H. Moran, and an anonymous referee for their comments on earlier drafts of the paper. Asian Development Review, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 1-33 © 2003 Asian Development Bank 2 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW aggressively offered, particularly to MNCs that supported developing countries’ industrial policies. Flows of FDI have seen a dramatic rise in the last 20 years due to increasing openness of host economies. The growing internationalization of trade and in- vestment has prompted some countries to call for increased cooperation through the establishment of international rules and commitments under the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper reviews recent developments in FDI flows and their impacts in developing Asia (Section II), and the importance of the policy context in which those flows occur (Section III). It discusses advantages and dis- advantages of including FDI in WTO negotiations (Section IV), and related policy options for developing Asian economies (Section V). Section VI draws some con- clusions. II. TRENDS AND EFFECTS From only $53.7 billion in 1980, FDI outflows reached $1.4 trillion in 2000. Since then, however, the weak global economy has considerably reduced out- flows, which dropped by 55 percent in 2001 and an estimated further 25 percent in 2002. The upsurge in FDI has substantially changed the international economic landscape. From 1980 to 2000, the growth rate of world FDI outflows surpassed that of world exports (Figure 1). This swift expansion in FDI was more pro- nounced during 1985-1990, when many host countries began to relax regulations to attract FDI, and 1995-2000, when companies undertook scores of mergers and acquisitions in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and privatization programs in Latin America. Figure 1: Growth of World Exports and FDI Outflows (average annual growth rate) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 World exports World FDI outflows Sources: Exports: IMF (2003a), FDI outflows: UNCTAD (2002). FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 3 Relative to world output and total trade, FDI flows have risen tremendously since the early 1990s (Figure 2). World FDI flows increased more than six times from 1993 to 2000 before falling beginning in 2001, while world trade and output grew at a more modest pace, not even doubling in value between 1990 and 2002. Figure 2: Index of World Trade, FDI Flows, and Output, 1990-2002 (1990=100) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 World Trade World FDI Flows World GDP Notes: World trade is defined as the sum of exports and imports; FDI flows as the sum of inflows and outflows. Data for 2002 are preliminary estimates. Sources: Trade and GDP: IMF (2003b), FDI flows: UNCTAD (2002). The geographic pattern of FDI outflows changed slightly during the last decade. Europe and North America continued to be the largest sources of FDI flows in the world, supplying at least 75 percent since 1991. In contrast, the share of the Asian and Pacific region in total FDI outflows fell significantly beginning in 1998 due to the declining importance of Japan as an FDI supplier. At the same time, Europe and North America continued to be the biggest recipients of FDI. While economies in the Asian and Pacific region received in- creasingly larger shares of world FDI inflows beginning in the 1990s, the 1997 financial crisis temporarily reversed this trend. But FDI flows soon recovered, par- ticularly in the wake of mergers and acquisitions after the
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