Propaganda, Alternative Media, and Accountability in Fragile Democracies Anqi Li1, Davin Raiha2, and Kenneth W. Shotts3 Forthcoming, Journal of Politics arXiv:1909.11836v6 [econ.GN] 29 Jul 2021 1Department of Economics, Washington University in St. Louis.
[email protected]. 2Kelley School of Business, Indiana University.
[email protected]. 3Stanford Graduate School of Business.
[email protected]. Abstract We develop a model of electoral accountability with mainstream and alternative media. In addition to regular high- and low-competence types, the incumbent may be an aspiring autocrat who controls the mainstream media and will subvert democracy if retained in office. A truthful alternative media can help voters identify and remove these subversive types while re-electing competent leaders. A malicious alternative media, in contrast, spreads false accusations about the incumbent and demotivates policy effort. If the alternative media is very likely be malicious and hence is unreliable, voters ignore it and use only the mainstream media to hold regular incumbents accountable, leaving aspiring autocrats to win re-election via propaganda that portrays them as effective policymakers. When the alternative media's reliability is intermediate, voters heed its warnings about subversive incumbents, but the prospect of being falsely accused demotivates effort by regular incumbents and electoral accountability breaks down. Keywords: propaganda, alternative media, electoral accountability and selection, fragile democracy Supplementary material for this article is available in the online appendix in the online edition. Many countries inhabit a grey area between democracy and autocracy: their leaders are elected, but try to eliminate checks on their power and subvert the institutional foundations of democracy.