1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Foundations for Community Climate Action: Defining Climate Change Vulnerability in Detroit University of Michigan Taubman College of Architecture & Urban Planning ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report would not be possible without the time, effort, and kind advice of the following people: Mr. Eric Dueweke, University of Michigan Ms. Larissa Larsen, Ph.D., University of Michigan Mr. George Davis Ms. Kimberly Hill-Knott Ms. Corinne Kisner Mr. Dan Brown Mr. Kevin Mulder Ms. Dominic Smith Ms. Sandra Turner-Handy Ms. Rachel Wells In addition, we would like to thank the Graham Institute for providing funding to print the final report. GRAHAM ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY INSTITUTE Cover Photo Credits: 1. By Kiddharma 2. By Michigan Municipal League 3. By The Travelin’ Librarian 4. By United Nations Development Program 5. By Kelly Gregg 6. By Sombraala 7. By Jake Jung 8. By Michigan Municipal League 9. By Michigan Municipal League 10. By Michigan Municipal League Foundations for Community Climate Action: Defining Climate Change Vulnerability in Detroit University of Michigan Taubman College of Architecture & Urban Planning Kelly Gregg, Peter McGrath, Sarah Nowaczyk, Andrew Perry, Karen Spangler, Taylor Traub, & Ben VanGessel Advisors: Larissa Larsen & Eric Dueweke December 2012 Source: ByMichigan MunicipalLeague TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................. 2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................. 4 CONTEXT........................................................................ 6 Detroit at a Glance Biophysical Climate Weather Events VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT.................................. 20 Heat Flood WORK GROUPS........................................................... 35 Businesses & Institutions Community Public Health Impacts Energy Homes & Neighborhoods Parks, Public Spaces, & Water Infrastructure Solid Waste Transportation CONCLUSION............................................................... 84 GLOSSARY.................................................................... 86 DETROIT MAPS............................................................ 92 Heat Flood Additional TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CLIMATE ACTION PLANNING According to projections, the average annual temperature in Detroit is expected to increase 1.5-5.4°F by 2050. In the wake of increasing temperatures and changing climate conditions, many cities across the world recognize the need for climate action planning. This style of planning provides a proactive approach to climate change. Comprehensive climate action planning involves both mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation aims to decrease the extent of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Conducting a greenhouse gas inventory informs which mitigation strategies are needed and in which sectors. Adaptation aims to decrease the impacts from climate change by identifying distinct places and groups of people that may be disproportionately affected by a changing climate. Conducting a vulnerability assessment informs which adaptation strategies are needed, and where to implement them. Literature often defines climate ‘vulnerability’ as ‘exposure plus sensitivity.’ Exposure refers to the presence of biophysical hazards in the current environment, and sensitivity refers to the degree to which a community is harmed by a given exposure. We conducted an initial vulnerability assessment in order to provide a foundation for future climate action planning. DETROIT CLIMATE ACTION COLLABORATIVE (DCAC) Community-based non-profits, environmental organizations, universities, state agencies, private organizations and the City of Detroit comprise the DCAC. The DCAC is a grass- roots effort, led by Detroiters Working for Environmental Justice (DWEJ). The primary goals of the DCAC include: 1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the Source: By Lowell Boileau detroityes.com sustainability and well-being of Detroit 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2. Increase the resilience of Detroit’s social, built and natural environments With regard to infrastructure, the analysis focuses solely on exposure factors. The Eight ‘Work Groups’ encompass the DCAC in primary exposure factor includes the runoff order to ensure fair representation. These eight burden created during intense storm events. Work Groups include transportation, solid waste, Land cover, soil type, and slope are the homes and neighborhoods, businesses and three factors that determine runoff burden. institutions, community public health impacts, Data pertaining to the age, size, capacity energy, research, and parks, public space and and technology of existing infrastructure water infrastructure. Once assembled, the Work is necessary to determine the sensitivity Groups will determine indicators, strategies and of the City’s nine sewersheds. Additional goals in order to monitor progress. We compiled information from Detroit Water and a list of potential indicators, strategies and goals Sewerage Department is necessary for a that serve to aid these Work Groups. more comprehensive analysis. At the household level, the exposure factor VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS is determined from floodplain designations & CONCLUSIONS (100 and 500 year). Age of housing stock (pre-1940) and median household income Our vulnerability assessments focus on two constitute household sensitivity. issues: extreme heat and flooding. We selected these two issues because local climatologists Similar to the heat assessment, system have identified extreme heat and increased flood vulnerability concentrates around the precipitation as key concerns for Detroit. downtown core and extends northward. Household flood vulnerability is seen in With regard to extreme heat vulnerability, our southeast Detroit and in the northwest assessment combines exposure and sensitivity. fashion along the Rouge River. Exposure factors include areas with high percentages of impervious surfaces relative to pervious surfaces and low tree coverage. FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS Sensitivity factors include the number of people The results of the vulnerability assessment over the age of 65, the number of households informed a set of final recommendations. without access to a vehicle, household income, These final recommendations include: and educational attainment. • Reconsider distribution and location of The heat assessment indicates that the greatest designated cooling centers areas of vulnerability include the downtown • Reduce impervious surfaces in identified core, along with the adjacent neighborhoods ‘hotspots’ northwest of downtown. In addition, only 29% • Increase tree planting in identified of the population is within a 15-minute walking ‘hotspots’ distance of designated cooling centers, which • Acquire additional information from the City of Detroit designates on an annual DWSD for further flood vulnerability basis. analysis • Ground-truth the most vulnerable heat The flooding vulnerability assessment examines and flood areas to further target efforts the vulnerability of current infrastructure at the neighborhood scale systems, as well as household level vulnerability. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Source:By Michigan MunicipalLeague INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION Global climate change threatens to disrupt the function and livability of our cities. Although Detroit, Michigan, will not face the drastic effects of rising sea levels, the city is projected to experience higher temperatures, more frequent and intense precipitation events, and fluctuating lake levels. All of these effects will place further strain on the City of Detroit’s ability to provide services and keep it’s most vulnerable residents safe. With this in mind, the Detroit Climate Action Coalition (DCAC) has partnered with the University of Michigan in order to assess how Detroit can lower it’s current impact on the environment to mitigate efforts and prepare itself for the effects of climate change through adaptation. Traditionally, municipal-level climate action plans have focused on mitigation— actions that reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions that aim to prevent climate change. Common recommendations included increasing mass transit options and increasing building energy efficiency. Although these mitigation policies generate positive outcomes, increasingly, recent climate action plans recognize that mitigation at the global scale must be coupled with adaptation at the local level. While not a comprehensive document, this report from the University of Michigan intends to positively contribute to the DCAC’s planning process. We begin with a brief history and current context section that addresses the relevant DEFINITION Detroit-specific information, and summarizes the MITIGATION current trends in climate science. Our Vulnerability Strategies that focus on reducing GHG emissions Assessment applies current climate science from human activity and promote the use and projections to Detroit, and identifies places and development of non-fossil fuel energy sources populations in Detroit that are at risk from specific effects of climate change. This Vulnerability ADAPTATION Assessment will form the basis for the Work Group The adjustment of human or natural systems in reports, which will allow DCAC stakeholders to response to actual and/or anticipated climate gain an accurate snapshot of where the city of change to lessen the potential negative impacts. Detroit currently stands, survey other plans and best practices from other cities, and show how stakeholders