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Report SEIA Final with Annexes Zip.Indd SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN ARMENIAN COMMUNITIES ARMENIA 2020 2020 SEIA REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary ......................................................................................................................................................................8 SEIA Results at a Glance ............................................................................................................................................................10 Impact of COVID-19 on Armenia’s marzes and communities ...........................................................................................12 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................14 Background ...............................................................................................................................................................................14 SEIA objectives and approach .............................................................................................................................................16 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................................18 Part 1. Key Socio-Economic Development Trends in Armenia Prior to the COVID-19 Outbreak ............................20 Part 2. Assessment of COVID-19’s Immediate Impact and Emerging Vulnerabilities in Armenian Communities ............................................................................................................................................26 2.1. Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Local Economy ......................................................................27 2.2. Immediate Social Impact of COVID-19 ......................................................................................................................40 2.3. Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Community Services .......................................................................................51 2.4. Emerging Economic and Social Vulnerabilities and Eff ectiveness of Governmental Support ..................52 Part 3. Key Recommendations ..................................................................................................................................................64 3.1. Health First: Protecting Health Services and Systems during the Crisis ...........................................................65 3.2. Protecting People: Helping People Cope with Adversity through Social Protection and Basic Services ........................................................................................................................................................67 3.3. Economic Response and Recovery: Protecting Jobs, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises and Informal Sector Workers ......................................................................................................................................69 3.4. Macroeconomic sustainability and cooperation ...................................................................................................72 3.5. Community Resilience and Infrastructure ...............................................................................................................73 | 3 | Page 2020 SEIA REPORT LIST OF ACRONYMS CSO Civil Society Organizations HEI Higher Education Institutions IE Individual Entrepreneurs IFI International Finance Institutions IOM International Organization for Migration LA Local Administration RG Regional Governments RGA Rapid Gender Analysis SEIA Social and Economic Impact Assessment SME Small and Medium Sized Enterprises SRC State Revenue Committee SSA Social Support Agency SC Statistical Committee UNA UN Agencies UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNFPA United Nations Population Fund United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment UN Women of Women MEWGC Making Every Women and Girl Count Global Programme WHO World Health Organization Page | 4 | LIST OF ACRONYMS 2020 SEIA REPORT FOREWORD Shombi Sharp Dmitry Mariyasin UN Resident UNDP Resident Coordinator Representative in Armenia in Armenia The COVID-19 pandemic is far more than a health crisis, it is also a humanitarian and development crisis that threatens to leave deep social and economic scars in the years to come, particularly for the most vulnerable and marginalized groups in society. The pandemic has moved like a wave, aff ecting the systems and peoples across the globe least able to cope. Armenia has been no exception, requiring urgent actions from Government, civil society, businesses and the international community to cope with the unfolding crisis beyond the health sector, to mitigate the potentially devastating impact it may have on the economy, social service provision and communities. The United Nations, together with our partners, have supported the Government of Armenia since the outset of the pandemic with the objective to: 1. Ensure that essential health services are maintained during the crisis, and help improve health systems by developing necessary capabilities and capacities; 2. Help people cope with the adversity of the crisis through improved access to social protection, education and other essential services, including for survivors of gender-based violence; 3. Protect jobs and vulnerable workers in both formal and informal sectors, support small and medium-sized enterprises in hard-hit sectors, and help create new job opportunities for women and men in line with Armenia’s comparative advantages; 4. Help guide the necessary surge in fi scal and fi nancial stimulus to make the macroeconomic framework work for the most vulnerable and foster sustainable development and strengthen multilateral and regional responses; and 5. Promote social cohesion and build trust through social dialogue and political engagement and invest in community-led and gender-responsive resilience and response systems. Our support continues to be inclusive and multi-sectoral, aiming to mitigate impact and accelerate gains across all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the post-COVID-19 context. Assessing the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis is nonetheless fundamental to tailor responses that are integrated, evidence-based, risk-informed and address current as well as emerging vulnerabilities and inequalities. To this end, under the overall leadership of the UN Resident Coordinator, the UN Country Team, with UNDP’s lead, conducted a rapid Social and Economic Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak in Armenian communities between May and July 2020. We hope that the fi ndings and suggested recommendations presented herein will help the Government of Armenia, development partners, IFIs, the private sector, civil society organizations and other stakeholders to design and carry out evidence-based, risk-informed and gender- responsive recovery initiatives both at national and local levels. FOREWORD | 5 | Page 2020 SEIA REPORT The socio-economic impact assessment was designed and carried out as a collaborative eff ort with generous technical support and inputs from all UN agencies, the Government of Armenia, regional and local administrations, and international fi nancial institutions. The assessment was funded via the UNDP Rapid Response Facility, with additional support from UNFPA, UNAIDS, UN Women, and the Asian Development Bank. We also express also our gratitude to UNDP Crisis Bureau and the UNDP Socio-Economic Impact Assessment Experts’ Team for their instrumental and invaluable contribution in all stages of the report drafting process. While we focus on dealing with the current COVID-19 crisis and its impact, it is also vital that we make full use of lessons learned from this pandemic. First and foremost, we must look ahead and consider ways to both prevent such a crisis again and, at the same time, build a greener and a more resilient society and economy. In the longer term, this will help Armenia in “building forward better” to prevent, respond to and recover from such crises along a sustainable, prosperous and people-centered development pathway. Shombi Sharp Dmitry Mariyasin UN Resident Coordinator UNDP Resident in Armenia Representative in Armenia Page | 6 | FOREWORD 2020 SEIA REPORT FOREWORD Tigran Khachatryan RA Minister of Economy Today, the global community is facing the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, which pose signifi cant challenges for every country’s governance, socio-economic, health, education and other systems. Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, the Government of Armenia has not only taken operative measures to prevent the spread of the disease, but also developed 24 anti-crisis measures to mitigate the economic and social consequences caused by the pandemic. In order to assess the eff ectiveness of the policies and programmes implemented by the Government, international and local organizations operating in Armenia, as well as the situation in the communities, the impact assessment of the pandemic was essential, especially at regional and community levels. In this regard, the COVID-19 Socio-Economic Impact Assessment was very important and timely, with joint eff orts from several agencies of the United Nations, led by the United
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