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Urbanization in Ethiopia: Study on Growth, Patterns, Functions and Alternative Policy Strategy Tsegaye Tegenu

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Urbanization in Ethiopia: Study on Growth, Patterns, Functions and Alternative Policy Strategy Tsegaye Tegenu Urbanization in Ethiopia: Study on Growth, Patterns, Functions and Alternative Policy Strategy Tsegaye Tegenu, Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University Stockholm, 2010 1. Background and Purpose Forty years ago Gamst characterize Ethiopian civilization as “Peasantries and Elites without Urbanism”. He was referring to a presence of a social organization and high culture civilization in which cities were absent (Gamst 1970). Thirty years later, researchers were still talking about “urban deserts” in Ethiopia, despite the acceleration of urbanization, with an average growth rate between 4,4 and 5,6 per cent a year (Golini, 2001). A recent urbanization study that used an agglomeration index as a methodology concluded that “a large share of the population still resides more than 10 hours travel time from an urban center” (Schmidt and Kedir, 2009). Even though the background to the state of urban growth and urbanization is related to the predatory nature of the Ethiopian state (Tegenu 1996), in this paper the focus is on a period of globalization and start of demographic transition in Ethiopia (Malmberg 2008, Tegenu 2004). The main purpose of this study is to examine the causes, patterns, consequences and policy implications of the ongoing urbanization in Ethiopia. • First, it provides statistics about the scale and nature of the urban population change and the demographic causes that contribute to this change. To understand the speed of change comparison is made with other African countries; • Second, it attempts to explain the level, pattern and trends of urbanization by examining the links between the function of towns and government policy; • Finally, it provides policy suggestion by highlighting the consequences of rapid urbanization, reviewing of government policy and considering causes for the low level of urbanization. After briefly presenting the basic framework of interpretation in section 2 below, the study discusses the time setting and driving forces behind rapid urbanization in Ethiopia in sections 3 and 4, the economic aspect and characteristics of urbanization in section 5, effects of rapid urbanization on employment, public service provision and spatial organization of towns in section 5. Sections 6 and 7 offer final conclusion in the form of development strategy and policy implication. 1 2. Determinants and Nature of Urbanization 2.1. Definition and Approach to Causes of Urbanization A population that is urban is one in which vast numbers of people are clustered together in very small areas called towns and cities. “Urbanization is a process of population concentration. It proceeds in two ways: the multiplication of points of concentration and the increase in size of points of concentration.” (Oluwasola 2007). The physical growth of urban areas can be explained demographically and functionally. While demographic definition of urbanization is restricted to factors such as population size and density, the economic functional definition refers to the territorial concentration of productive activities (industries and service) rather than population. In this study urbanization is examined both demographically and functionally. There are, however, three overlapping questions of considerations in explaining the synthesis between an increase in the urban share of total population and a structural economic change in a given country. The first set of questions refers to the identification of the demographic and economic drivers of change and how those drivers affect the number and size of urban centers? The second question relates to the identification of enabling factors which determine where the urban centers can be clustered (i.e., spatial distribution of urban centers). While the first question (demographic pressure) affects the increase in the overall growth rate and size of the urban population, the second question (institutional/policy responses) affect mainly the function of the towns not their demographic size. The third question relates to problem of periodization. Urbanization is not unique; it has been there all the time. Is there a time setting which gives particular characteristics to the urbanization process under consideration? My models of urbanization try to associate population and economic changes in a time setting that is divergent from the past. The historical period in which the changes have occurred is known by the name demographic transition, which refers to the process through which countries’ birth and death rates pass from high levels to low levels. The decline of mortality usually precedes the decline in fertility, thus resulting in rapid population growth during the first stage of the transition. My point of departure is that during the stage of rapid rural population growth (high births than death) the determinant of urban growth is net rural urban migration than natural increase of the urban population. Rural net outmigration follows a pattern which at first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter 2 (see “mobility revolution” hypothesis in Ledent, 1982 and Figure 1). Increase in the number of small towns and size of urban population as a result of net internal migration is called here migration-led urbanization. Later on when rural fertility rates drop and when the main sources of urban growth is accounted by natural increase, urbanization (increase in the urban share of total population ) is the function of economic growth (growth-driven urbanization) Source: Adapted from the figures given by Ledent 1982 Migration-led urbanization is rapid. It increases both in number of towns and proportion of the population located in the urban areas and this is mainly a function of the demographic transition. Its’ growth rate is faster than the financial and human resources available for managing its development. The population is increasing without an increase in industrial production and rising incomes. In the industrialized countries, urbanization took many decades creating conditions for the proliferation of tradable manufacturing and services and resources for facilitating and managing the provision of services to residents. Urbanization that has the capacity to improve the quality of life through state-market responses is growth driven. 2.2. Nature of Migration-led Urbanization In the literature migration is discussed in the paradigm of push-pull factors. Push factors refer to the specific forces in individuals lives that lead to the decision to migrate outside of its 3 normal place, while pull factors refer to those that lead an individual to select one destination over another once the decision to migrate has been made. This type of analysis provides empirical fit to understand the circumstances that trigger the motivation for migration. But in studying urbanization my interest is not on the motivational framework (desire and choice) at the individual level. My interest is at the macro and local levels at which the causes (push/pull factors), levels, streams, intensities and forms of migration affect the number and size of points of population concentration. Migration -led urbanization is characterized by a) an increase in the number of towns (multiplication of the points of concentration); b) gradual market integration of the different components of the agriculture economy (production, land and labour) and development of the rural market functions (handicraft, trade and service); and c) unbalanced growth in size and spatial distribution of towns (“distorted location incentives”). There are different sources for an increase in the number of towns. Towns can grow from settlements physically in existence for many years (regional and zonal administrative centers and farm settlements). This type of urban growth is mainly related to nature of the land resource reallocation that increases rural-rural mobility/migration. In rural areas land could be acquired through inheritance, parental sharing, redistribution, forest clearing, renting and share cropping. These forms of output (increase through area extensification) increases size of some rural settlements which at certain threshold can be labeled as towns. New towns can also grow as a result of the surplus labor mobility and occupational changes. The surplus labor consists of rural labor engaged in “elementary occupation”, the underemployed of the self employed farm labour (subsistence labour) and the new young adult who enter the labour force for the first time. As a result of land scarcity (due to fragmentation and entry barriers to share cropping and land rent) surplus rural labor migrates to urban centers. 1 This is often accompanied by occupational changes from farm to non-farm activities (petty trade, handicraft, transporting, mining, selling of wood, local brewery, etc.). Without being forced to be mobile, subsistence households may also be forced to undergoing occupational changes from farm to non-farm activities as the total household 1 Higher population density with fixed technological and/or poor agro-ecological factors results in diminishing returns to labour. Increasing application of labour on fixed amount of land eventually leads to decreasing levels of output per unit of input. Under such conditions household either intensify agriculture or migrate. 4 consumption requirements increases due to their reproductive behavior. Under such circumstances households depend on the village market or nearby settlement areas for the sale of their labor and/or products. The intensity of non-farm activities
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