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Does Media Coverage of Immigration Lead to Anti-Immigrant Behavior?

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Beyond Agenda Setting: Does Media Coverage of Immigration Lead to Anti-Immigrant Behavior? Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill, David Rothschild June 22, 2020 Abstract This paper studies the influence of news coverage of immigrants on anti-immigrant beliefs and behaviors. Using news transcripts, Google Trends data, and a novel dataset of Bing web searches for immigration-related topics, we examine the role of media coverage of immigra- tion topics during the 2016 election and Trump presidency on searches for information about immigrants related to crime and welfare dependency as well as how to report immigrants to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). We catalogue significant and sustained increases in news segments on crime by immigrants and their use of public services after Trump’s in- auguration and find that searches for crime and welfare related to immigrants are correlated with the daily volume of news on immigrant crime and welfare. We find a similar sustained increase in searches for how to report undocumented immigrants that is strongly correlated with the daily volume of immigrant crime news. Using timestamped searches for immigra- tion during broadcasts of Trump’s and Obama’s speeches, we confirm the causal effect of anti- immigrant media coverage on searches for immigration and crime, welfare, and how to report immigrants to ICE. The findings indicate that media’s choices regarding the coverage of immi- grants can have a strong impact not only on attitudes but also behaviors. Introduction The 2016 election ushered in a sea change regarding political discourse about immigration. Donald Trump made immigration a signature issue, kicking off his campaign with the pro- nouncement that “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best... They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us.” Jour- nalists have long debated the media’s role in actively preventing the spread of misinformation,1 especially when that misinformation may have negative consequences, and prior research has shown that media narratives significantly influence viewers’ support for policy issues (Chong and Druckman 2007), including immigration (Knoll et al. 2011; Lahav and Courtemanche 2012). These debates found new relevance in 2019, as media outlets deliberated over whether to broadcast live an address by President Trump on immigration due to concerns of “malice and misinformation” regarding immigrants.2 We further examine the potential influence of me- dia coverage on attitudes and behaviors. Using web search data, we find that anti-immigrant media broadcasts significantly affect not only anti-immigrant beliefs but also anti-immigrant behaviors. This media and political scenario raises several questions. Does media coverage of is- sues related to immigrants strengthen and reinforce (in this case, negative) attitudes towards immigrants? Does it encourage Americans to engage in anti-immigrant behaviors such as re- porting undocumented immigrants to ICE? To address these questions, we combine a novel dataset of Bing and Google searches for crime committed by immigrants, immigrants’ use of welfare, and how to report immigrants to ICE with automated text analysis of TV transcripts from CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News from 2014 to 2019. This methodology allows us to mea- sure accurately Americans’ attitudes and behaviors regarding immigrants, instead of relying on survey data, which can be plagued by non-attitudes and social desirability bias. Furthermore, 1https://archives.cjr.org/feature/rethinking_objectivity 2https: www.nbcnews.com/news/all/air-or-not-air-networks-face-pressure-over-broadcasting-trump-n955846 1 because of the temporal granularity of our data, we can map when a user searched for an anti- immigrant term and thus determine of media events have a causal effect on searches. We illustrate large shifts in news coverage of immigration after the 2016 election, espe- cially on Fox News, and we identify a strong correlation between daily coverage of immi- gration and anti-immigrant searches—not just attitudinal searches about immigrant crime and welfare but also behavioral searches about how to report immigrants to ICE. Using this time- stamped search data, we find that anti-immigrant searches dramatically increased during broad- casts of President Trump’s speeches about immigration, suggesting a causal effect of anti- immigrant media broadcasts. We do not find similar effects for Obama’s televised addresses. We show that immigration news coverage can lead to both the reinforcement of anti-immigrant beliefs and the impetus to act on those beliefs. Frequently, immigration news coverage in- cludes misinformation distributed by the media during speeches or press conferences by an established politician proliferating unvetted information or in segments covering such events in the following hours, days, and weeks. The downstream effects of this news coverage include the impacts of consuming not only the news coverage of the event but also the corresponding information available on the internet. Media coverage can lead to a spiral of reinforcing disin- formation, as consumers are motivated to engage in information-seeking behavior online after consuming a news report. Politicians disseminating and discussing anti-immigrant rhetoric can and do change the attitudes and actions of their supporters, but the breadth and depth of the impacts are dependent on the media’s choice to amplify the issue and frame the discussion, with serious real-world consequences to those choices. The rest of the article is organized as follows. The subsequent section describes the the- oretical debates that motivate this study. The third section presents our data sources and de- lineates our analysis strategy. The fourth section explores changes in news coverage of immi- gration after the 2016 election. The fifth section demonstrates the increase in anti-immigrant searches after the 2016 election. The sixth section shows the strong association between news 2 segments about immigration and the volume of anti-immigrant searches. The seventh section uses hourly search data to estimate the causal effects of Donald Trump’s televised speeches on anti-immigrant searches and compares these to effects from speeches by Barack Obama. The final section describes the implications of our findings. Theory Scholars studying the media have identified several effects of the media on public opinion (Strömberg 2015). Among the most important is the role of the mass media in activating pub- lic opinion. When a person’s opinion on an issue is activated, their opinion about this issue is both “salient in the mind and impels [them] to political action” (Lee 2002). Through acti- vating public opinion, mass media can compel the public to engage in a variety of behaviors that can influence the political process. These behaviors include expressive behaviors such as tweeting about an issue (King et al. 2017) or communicating with elected officials (Lee 2002) and information-seeking behaviors with the aim of learning more about the issue of interest. Finally, some members of the public attempt to influence politics by modifying other behaviors such as changing their family planning (Bhavnani and Nellis 2016) or engaging in violence against ethnic outgroups (Yanagizawa-Drott 2014). Activated public opinion has played a key role in shaping the politics of race and ethnicity in the United States. Lee (2002) described the role of civil rights activists in activating North- ern whites’ public opinion, which he argues led to the passage of civil rights legislation in the 1960s. More recently, due to the election of the nation’s first black president, as well as the concurrent rise in non-white immigration, the issue of race has been extremely salient and “chronically accessible” (Tesler and Sears 2010). Some whites perceive a threat from the rise of non-white immigration, which has encouraged backlash (Abrajano and Hajnal 2017; Jardina 2019). The election of Donald Trump has further increased the salience of race, with Ameri- 3 cans’ worries about race relations at a record high.3 We argue that at this stage of chronic accessibility, the overwhelming saliency of race keeps the issue bubbling just below the surface for many members of the public, so that an event as small as an anti-immigrant media broadcast can activate anti-immigrant opinion, re- sulting in behaviors that have tangible negative impacts on immigrant communities, such as reporting (presumed) undocumented immigrants to ICE. Deportation carries obvious negative consequences for undocumented immigrants, including the separation of families, loss of liveli- hood, and risk of violence when deported to their countries of origin. Fear of deportation has extremely negative effects on both mental and physical health for undocumented immigrants, their families, and their communities (Allen et al. 2015; Gemmill et al. 2019; Krupenkin et al. 2019; Torres et al. 2018). ICE arrests can carry negative consequences for undocumented im- migrants as well as citizens and legal residents. Numerous U.S. citizens have been arrested by ICE and held for long periods before they could prove their citizenship.4 Media coverage is an extremely important propagator of presidential cues. Americans tend to follow cues from co-partisan political figures when forming their policy preferences (Lenz 2013; Achen and Bartels 2017; Layman and Carsey 2002; Levendusky 2009). While presi- dents communicate with their supporters through mailings and,
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