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Azarijafari Hessam Phd 2018.Pdf UNIVERSITÉ DE SHERBROOKE Faculté de génie Département de génie civil DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSEQUENTIAL DYNAMIC MODEL INCORPORATING VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR ASSESSING LIFE CYCLE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF PAVEMENTS DÉVELOPPEMENT D'UN MODÈLE DYNAMIQUE INCORPORANT L'ANALYSE DE LA VARIABILITÉ ET DE L'INCERTITUDE POUR L'ÉVALUATION DES CONSÉQUENCES ENVIRONNEMENTALES DU CYCLE DE VIE DES CHAUSSÉES Thèse de doctorat Spécialité : génie civil Hessam AZARIJAFARI Sherbrooke (Québec) Canada Juillet 2018 MEMBRES DU JURY Pr. Ben AMOR, Directeur Pr. Ammar YAHIA Codirecteur Pr. Dahai QI Rapporteur Dr. Jeremy GREGORY Évaluateur Dr. Geoffrey GUEST Évaluateur This work is dedicated to my family. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT My journey thus far could never have been such fascinating if it were not because of the following individuals who have made irreplaceable contribution to everything I have achieved. It is why I would like to thank Prof. Ben Amor and Prof. Ammar Yahia for granting me their confidence. I could not have had a better team of directors. You guided me to have a more mature scientific mind, which I am indefinitely grateful and indebted. I would like to thank you for keeping an open door for me all the time, urging me to perfect my research work, as well as filling our collaboration at all levels with pleasure. My special thanks go to Mathieu Courchesne for providing the building energy model and Adam Hayashi and Guillaume Lemieux for the intellectual support from the Canadian cement industry. The statistical data provided by Julie Ruby from the ministry of transportation in Quebec (MTQ) is appreciated. The financial supports of this research project were provided by the Fonds Nature et technologies (FQRNT), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Centre de recherche sur les infrastructures en béton (CRIB), and the Fondation de l’ Université de Sherbrooke. My sincere gratitude goes to all LIRIDE members. I am grateful for the welcoming and warm working group you made with your team spirit and your nice personalities. I will not forget all the funs we had during lunch times and parties as well as all the cake days we celebrated. I also appreciate your encouragement and help for learning and revising my French text and presentations. I am grateful to Prof. Dahai Qi, Dr. Jeremy Gregory, and Dr. Geoffrey Guest for their valuable comments on my dissertation. I am grateful for what I learnt in terms of leadership and cooperation with my friends in ACI- Sherbrooke that helped me to better manage my research work. I truly appreciate your contributions to my professional and personal development. Notably, I would like to thank Prof. Arezki who always supported me in ACI-Sherbrooke. I would like to say a big thank to my brothers for their unconditional love. My sincere thanks go to Jafar for the friendship and help he brought for us in Iran and here. Last but not the least, no words can express my gratitude towards my wife, Motahareh, for her love, support and patience during my rough time and for listening to me during all these evenings. I would like to thank my little son, Ryan, who increases the level of happiness in our family . i RÉSUMÉ Le choix d’une option écologique pour les chaussées parmi plusieurs options constitue un défi pour les gouvernements depuis longtemps. Une quantité importante de matériaux est requise pour la construction des chaussées et le maintien des conditions de service de la circulation au- dessous des seuils de performance. Afin de répondre à la demande en matériaux de construction, des procédés énergivores doivent être mis en place. Ces procédés produisent différents types d'émissions. En outre, il convient de noter que les impacts environnementaux des chaussées ne se limitent seulement pas aux matériaux de construction et aux machines. En effet, la sélection d’un type de chaussée peut influencer, selon ses propriétés, la consommation de carburant des véhicules et les demandes en climatisation des bâtiments avoisinants. Jusqu'à présent, plusieurs impacts environnementaux de matériaux alternatifs pour la construction de chaussées ont été étudiés grâce à la méthode d'analyse du cycle de vie (ACV). Lors d'une ACV de chaussée à grande échelle, visant à examiner les implications ou exigences liées aux politiques, par exemple, il est important d'évaluer les changements induits sur le marché par ces politiques. Ces changements peuvent concerner une modification de la demande pour d'autres produits ayant la même fonction et / ou du volume des coproduits générés. L'ACV conséquentielle (ACVC) est utilisée pour saisir les conséquences environnementales directes et indirectes de la sélection des chaussées. Des études antérieures d'ACVC ont identifié les technologies affectées à long terme dans des phases distinctes du cycle de vie du produit. Les résultats de ces études tendent, cependant, à négliger les impacts des systèmes de produits à court terme. En fait, le manque de comptabilité dynamique dans les études d'ACVC empêche les décideurs d'obtenir une analyse plus complète et mieux informée des flux d'émissions au fil du temps. De plus, compte tenu de la longue phase d'utilisation des infrastructures routières, un grand nombre de paramètres interdépendants change constamment en fonction du temps. Une structure dynamique devient alors essentielle pour relier ces paramètres aux facteurs de caractérisation (FC) dynamiques. De plus, l'application des facteurs d'émission et des changements dans la consommation de carburant ou de l'efficacité peut aider à améliorer la précision du processus décisionnel lié à la sélection des chaussées. Cependant, la distribution temporelle des impacts, induits par les paramètres du cycle de vie de la chaussée, n'est pas ii entièrement prise en compte dans les études précédentes d'ACVC. Les incertitudes et les variabilités doivent être étudiés pour examiner la robustesse des résultats, ce qui n'a pas encore été pris en compte auparavant en ACV. Pour élaborer un cadre plus global dans l'analyse des incertitudes et des variabilités, il est essentiel de considérer les dépendances réciproques entre les sources de variabilité et d'incertitude. En fait, négliger ces interdépendances peut mener à une conclusion entièrement différente de celle obtenue par un échantillonnage indépendant. Jusqu'à présent, aucune méthode n'a été proposée pour évaluer de manière cohérente les sources de variabilité et d'incertitude des ACV de la chaussée, que ce soit dans des contextes conséquentiels ou attributionnels. Le premier objectif de ce projet de recherche vise à développer un cadre global, capable de capturer les interdépendances des paramètres tout en analysant les sources d'incertitude et de variabilité. Le cadre proposé comprend des simulations de Monte Carlo pour la propagation des incertitudes et de différents types des variabilités. Le cadre a été appliqué à une étude de cas d'ACV attributionnelle (ACVA), dans laquelle l'asphalte et le béton ont été comparés. Différentes sources, telles que l'incertitude due à la qualité des données et aux choix méthodologiques ainsi que la variabilité des paramètres, ont été étudiées. Les résultats de l'analyse de Monte Carlo montrent que les choix méthodologiques, telle que la méthode d'allocation, peuvent modifier le scénario le moins impactant sur l’environnement pour quatre catégories intermédiaires. Ces catégories sont principalement affectées par la chaîne d'approvisionnement en pétrole brut. La variabilité des matériaux et des méthodes de construction peut modifier le scénario préféré dans différentes catégories de dommages, à savoir la santé humaine et le réchauffement climatique. En outre, le scénario préféré en matière de qualité de l'écosystème peut être modifié lorsque l'incertitude des paramètres est prise en compte. La raison en est que les scores qualitatifs les plus mauvais sont donnés à l'incertitude géographique du flux élémentaire qui contribue majoritairement à la qualité de l'écosystème (c'est-à-dire le zinc). L'effet combiné des sources d'incertitude et de variabilité pour cette étude de cas empêche le décideur d'en arriver à une conclusion robuste sur la qualité de l'écosystème, la santé humaine et les effets du réchauffement climatique. Cependant, pour la catégorie ressource, le résultat comparatif entre la chaussée en asphalte et en béton est suffisamment iii important et, par conséquent, les sources de variabilités et d'incertitudes ne changent pas les conclusions. Le second objectif de ce projet de recherche est de développer un cadre de travail dynamique pour l'évaluation de l'aspect environnemental des chaussées. De plus, le cadre proposé dans le premier objectif a été adopté pour considérer diverses sources d'incertitude et de variabilité, tels que la qualité des données, les paramètres de modélisation et la variabilité, dans différentes phases du cycle de vie des chaussées. Les changements dynamiques du vecteur de la demande et de la matrice de la technosphère ont été calculés en tenant compte de l'horizon temporel dans lequel les technologies sont affectées. Les composantes du cycle de vie ont été délimitées grâce à une paramétrisation précise de plus de 130 facteurs dépendant du temps. Selon le cadre d'analyse des incertitudes proposé à l'étape précédente, une simulation de Monte Carlo a été menée pour propager les incertitudes et les variabilités du système en divisant les paramètres par l'incertitude de qualité des données, l'incertitude de modélisation et la variabilité des données. La méthode proposée a été appliquée à l'étude de cas d'une chaussée en asphalte (Statu quo) changé en chaussée en béton (choix alternatif). Les résultats montrent qu'une simplification de changements dynamiques dans l'ACV des chaussées peut entraîner une évaluation inexacte des résultats de dommages. Les avantages environnementaux attribués en substituant le scénario du statu quo par l'alternatif sont alors surestimés de 7, 17 et 77% pour respectivement les catégories changement climatique, santé humaine et ressource.
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