South Downs Centre SOUTH DOWNS North Street Midhurst West Sussex NATIONAL PARK GU29 9DH T: 01730 814810 SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK

Climate Change Adaptation Plan

Pond dipping in July ©SDNPA/ Mischa Haller 2 South Downs National Park CONTENTS

Introduction 04 The National Park Partnership 06 Management Plan Why produce a climate change 07 adaptation plan? Building resilience into ecological 08 networks The Adaptation Approach 09 (methodology) Evidence Base 10 National level projections till 2050 11 Primary habitats vulnerable to 12 climate change Impacts and observed changes on key 13 National Park assets and interests Ecosystem Services and climate change 20 Assessment of the risks and 22 opportunities Summary of high risk impacts over 24 short, medium and long term Interdependencies, barriers 25 and opportunities Next Steps – Implementing and 26 reviewing the Action Plan Annexes Annex 1 – Ecosystem Service Impacts 28 Annex 2 – Assessment of the principal 38 climate change risks and opportunities Annex 3 – Climate Change Action Plan 80 Annex 4 – Policy responses to climate 98 change within the Partnership Management Plan (PMP) Annex 5 – Bibliography 100

Climate Change Adaptation Plan 3 INTRODUCTION

At the upper range of current predictions 1 ‘Where there are threats Climate change is one of the of serious or irreversible The South Downs National Park we may start to exceed the thresholds at damage, lack of full principal drivers of environmental scientific certainty shall which these services function adequately. not be used as a reason for postponing cost change for the South Downs Godalming The current understanding of environmental effective measures that ALTON prevent environmental Binsted National Park in the future. Its limits is insufficient, but in terms of planning Four KECRAWLEYY EAST degradation’ (United GRINSTEAD Marks South Downs National Park Railway adaptive responses we have adopted a Nations General New A31 Bordon impacts are likely to be significant 1 Assembly, 1992’. Alresford Haslemere South Downs Way Settlement precautionary approach . Liphook South Downs Way Crowborough WINCHESTER Selborne Horsham and profound across a whole range Northchapel (footpath only) Liss Railway Stations of areas and assets. The impact Change is inevitable, and the ability of natural systems to be resilient or adapt Twyford West Meon PETERSFIELD Haywards MIDHURST Heath Upham East Meon Petworth upon some of the key Ecosystem to climate change varies. Planning for Eastleigh River Rother Uckfield Cocking Pulborough Hurstpierpoint Burgess Hill Heathfield Services of the National Park are adaptation requires ‘adjustment in natural Bishopstoke River Meon Storrington or human systems in response to actual or Rowlands Castle Singleton Ditchling also potentially significant. SOUTHAMPTON Steyning expected climatic stimuli or their effects, River Arun LEWES Lavant Hailsham which moderate harm or exploits beneficial Havant River Adur River Ouse Arundel opportunities’ (Intergovernmental Panel on FAREHAM Alfriston CHICHESTER WORTHING BRIGHTON & HOVE Cuckmere Climate Change, 2007). River LITTLEHAMPTON EASTBOURNE GOSPORT N PORTSMOUTH BOGNOR REGIS 0 10 km East Dean The adaptive responses we have set out ENGLISH CHANNEL in this report have been informed by the This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey five main adaptation principles (see below on behalf of the Controller of her majesty’s Stationery Office © Crown copyright 100050083 2011 diagram) and seek to work with the dynamics of natural systems. The role of the South Downs National Park Authority The Purposes and Duty of the Diagram 1: Five principles National Park Authority of adaptation, England The South Downs National Park Authority (SDNPA) has Biodiversity Strategy: a key role in meeting the challenges and opportunities The National Park Authority has two statutory Climate Change climate change may present. We need to ensure we purposes: Adaptation Principles Maintain Accommodate have a full understanding, underpinned by adequate ‘To conserve and enhance the natural (Defra, 2008) and increase evidence, of the risk posed to the National Park and change 1 beauty, wildlife and cultural heritage ecological its key assets. of the National Park area’; resilience Our work, both in terms of policy and delivery, needs and to be sighted on the full range of potential impacts relating to climate change. Through our Partnership ‘To promote opportunities for the Take Management Plan and other action plans we need to 2 understanding and enjoyment of the practical ensure we properly co-ordinate our work in relation to special qualities of the National Park action now climate change adaptation and mitigation. by the public’; We need to use our convening power to achieve In carrying out these purposes, it also has a the necessary joined-up and shared action with our duty to: external partnerships as well. This climate change ‘Seek to foster the economic and social Integrate Develop adaptation report, the risk assessment and its well-being of the local communities within action across knowledge and accompanying action plan set out how we intend the National Park’. to do this. all sectors plan strategically In addition, Section 62 of the Environment Act 1995 requires all relevant bodies to have regard for these purposes in terms of their activities, plans and programmes.

4 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 5 THE NATIONAL WHY PRODUCE A CLIMATE PARK PARTNERSHIP CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN? MANAGEMENT PLAN

In terms of its plan making Core Values and The requirement to report also The Climate Change Act (2008) in building resilience to climate n Preparing proposals and policy covers the impact on the rural gave a new directive power to the change across sectors, taking responses to adapt adequately and policies we, the SDNPA, Guiding Principles economy and how resilience for Secretary of State for Environment, into account the full range to the risks to their business that have sought to develop from the PMP that the future might be built in through Food & Rural Affairs. This allows of social, economic and relate to climate change; adaptive responses. them to ask public authorities, environmental impacts. an integrated approach n Co-operating with other are relevant to this statutory bodies and other to managing land, water The UK government is preparing reporting authorities to achieve organisations performing functions adaptation plan ‘Promoting good governance – to update the UK Climate Change that purpose. and the living resources of of a public nature, to report on considering how to encourage Risk Assessment and the supporting the National Park. It also their progress in adapting to The structure and approach taken ‘Living within environmental active participation’ evidence reports in 2017. To climate change. This is known in this report has been informed seeks to promote their inform this process, the Secretary limits – considering the The requirement to report also as the Adaptation Reporting by Defra’s reporting guidance. conservation and sustainable of State for Environment, Food & impact on the environment’ means that we need to identify Power (ARP). The ARP places a The previous National Adaptation Rural Affairs invited the National use, to ensure that these risks associated with climate requirement on these bodies to Programme report also provided This adaptation report and action Park Authorities to undertake change and plan effectively to produce a report that sets out how a good basis for defining some essential natural services are plan is about identifying the risks a second round of reporting. mitigate or adapt in response to they are responding to the risks of the principle topic heading protected and enhanced relating to climate change and The SDNPA formally agreed to those challenges. This reflects and focal areas. how they might impact upon and impacts presented by climate now and for the future. and promotes good governance. participate in this. the environmental, social and change to their core business. The reports submitted through The Adaptation Report, once Voluntary guidance on how to The Partnership Management Plan economic assets of the National In July 2013, the government the second round will help the completed, is a mechanism produce an Adaptation Report was (PMP) for the South Downs was Park. This is fundamentally about published the first National government assess the level of through which we can encourage issued to all reporting authorities published in 2013. It is the first living within environmental limits Adaptation Programme. This capacity within each sector to action by actively communicating giving them advice on: – either through highlighting develop adaptive responses. over-arching five year strategy for the findings of the report. summary report was based upon the South Downs National Park. mitigation or adaptation responses. data from the first ‘Adaptation n Assessing the current and The information provided will also Preparation of the PMP was led ‘Using evidence to support Plan’ reporting round. Based upon predicted impacts of climate inform the review of the National ‘Ensuring a strong healthy and change in relation to their Climate Change Risk Assessment and co-ordinated by the National proposals – taking account of current modelled projections, it Park Authority working jointly with just society – considering social sets out the current challenges purposes and statutory functions; in any updates of the Adaptation the precautionary principle’. a high-level stakeholder group – cohesion and wellbeing’ Programme thereafter. the South Downs Partnership and The adaptation report will need to Environmental impacts, driven with extensive public consultation. be properly evidenced to meet the by climate change, are also likely requirements being placed on us The PMP sets out a long-term vision to have significant impacts on by the Climate Change Act and for the National Park. It includes society, health and well-being. the Adaptation Reporting Powers 11 outcomes which provide a The requirement placed on us to being exercised by the Secretary of framework for communities, report covers social impacts as State. It needs to be based upon the landowners, charities, businesses well – as far as they relate to our best available science and the UK and public bodies to work together purposes and duty. to make this vision and these Climate Impacts Projections (UKCIP) and national level risk assessment. outcomes a reality. The PMP also ‘Achieving a sustainable drives the Authority’s own business As it requires us to think about economy – considering building adaptive responses for the and operational plans, and impacts on or contribution provides the starting point for the future, it is taking full account of the to a sustainable economy’ development of the policies in our precautionary principle. Local Plan document. southdowns.gov.uk/pmp Fulking Escarpment ©SDNPA 6 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 7 BUILDING RESILIENCE INTO THE ADAPTATION APPROACH ECOLOGICAL NETWORKS (METHODOLOGY)

Biodiversity 2020: Five components of an ecological network: Through our involvement This identified the principal areas In terms of a broad methodology A strategy for England’s in the National Parks that we considered were necessary we have sought to: To achieve this the strategy to address within the report, and wildlife and ecosystem England Climate Change Identify the key assets and 1 recommends a spatially based gave us a broad framework within which to structure the report. features of the National Park. services (2011) sets out Core areas of high conservation approach and landscape scale Working Group we some priority actions that value – rare or important action. The risk and opportunity benefitted greatly from the In developing our adaptation seek to increase resilience habitats or areas that are of assessment, which is annexed experience accrued by approach, a major requirement Assess vulnerability of key to climate change, and high ecological value or deliver to this report, sets out these the other National Parks in was to undertake a risk assessment assets and features of the important ecosystem services. challenges as fully as possible. across the breadth of our business. National Park. suggests we actively review It also sets out an action plan for developing their first round This was developed from our our responses over time. how we might seek to address the reports. Our approach has current evidence baseline and Key to this is the need to 2 most significant effects, or make been informed by the best sought to identify the impacts upon Consider sectoral impacts for best use of new opportunities. the key assets of the National principle land uses such as establish ‘more coherent Corridors or stepping stones – practice identified as a provide a mosaic of habitats Park. It also looked across relevant farming and forestry. and resilient ecological allowing species to move between result of this exercise. sectors that are central to the networks on land that core areas and supporting landscape of the National Park For the preparation of our Assess the impacts based safeguard ecosystem ecosystem service function. such as farming, forestry and Adaptation Report and Action other principal land uses. upon current climate change services for the benefit Plan we have required expertise projections of wildlife and people’. 3 and input from across the SDNPA We have tried to assess the as well as from external partners. likely impacts upon Ecosystem Restoration areas – creating This has been achieved through Services and the functions which Score these risks and Coherent = new high value areas that restore establishing a ‘task and finish’ are provided by the natural opportunities based upon Has all the necessary elements habitats and ecosystem service group that brought together the environment that benefit society. likelihood, impact and risk and its value is more than the functions. relevant expertise from a wide for the short, medium and sum of its component parts. constituency. We have also run long term. a number of workshop events to Resilience = 4 facilitate joint working. Identify current policy responses Able to absorb, resist or Buffer Zones – that protect core In order to fulfil the requirement and highlight any gaps. recover from disturbances areas from adverse impacts in the to report properly, we initially or damage from natural wider environment. scoped the areas that were most influences, human activities relevant for us to report on. Identify adaptation options (including climate change) An initial exercise was carried (potential delivery/actions). while continuing to provide 5 out to map our principal policy ecosystem services. Sustainable use areas – parts of surrounding land that are responses and delivery within Assess the acceptability managed in a sustainable and the South Downs Partnership of those options, their wildlife friendly way. Management Plan against the interdependencies, and the focal areas set out in the National potential barriers to delivery. Adaptation Programme.

Identify planned actions for the short, medium and long term (delivery/actions).

8 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 9 EVIDENCE BASE NATIONAL LEVEL PROJECTIONS UNTIL 2050

UK Climate Projects The UKCIP projections have been used to set the baseline range (UKCP09) projections of possible climatic change used suggest that by 2050 in the assessment of risk and we may see hotter, drier opportunities in Annex 2. These summers, changes in are for the short, medium and long term horizons which are 2020, patterns of rainfall and an 2050 and 2080. increase in the impact of extreme weather events Natural England such as flooding. Climate Change

For the period 1960–1990 the Vulnerability Mapping annual average temperature Natural England have recently for the UK has increased. developed a mapping tool that Projected increases in mean identifies environmental assets temperature could be 2.8°C or which are most vulnerable to greater, along with a decrease climate change. The South Downs The report was developed This was a theme that was further was one of the areas included The SDNPA is looking in average seasonal rainfall of Rainbow on Iron Age fort in close collaboration with a developed in the Partnership 19%. Though summer rainfall within the first pilots of this to establish itself as a near Clanfield ©Warren Peters wide range of organisations Management Plan the following varies dramatically the overall work and this Climate Change strongly evidence based and individuals. It was a year. An online version of the trend has been a decrease. Vulnerability Mapping data is organisation. In 2012 key document to enable the State of the Park Report can be There is reasonable confidence available for us to use. This will we published our first Authority and our partners to found here: that the greatest impact of the address many of our evidence tackle the complex issues facing snpr.southdowns.gov.uk/files/ change in summer precipitation requirements but will require some State of the Park Report. the South Downs National default.html will be in the south of England. work in-house to ensure we can This sought to capture a Park. The issues it highlighted use the tool effectively to support By contrast the trend for winter were the basis for developing Evidence gaps remain, the reporting process. picture of the National rainfall for the last 30 years has the planned outcomes and particularly around the long term Park as it was at that been for it to fall in heavy events. policies with our first Partnership or cumulative effects of climate There is reasonable confidence that point, and to provide a Management Plan. change on ecological networks. Where these have been identified these high seasonal rainfall events baseline against which It is a comprehensive document they have been included within will increase, with a corresponding future changes could that pulls together a range of the action plan in Annex 3. The increase in flood events. In winter the data and evidence across the be measured. intention would be to prioritise mean temperature increase could sectors. This was an important these through the setting of our be around 2.2°C with an increase foundation document and the research priorities and work with of average seasonal rainfall of 16% first that started to develop and academic/research partners to across the south east region. introduce ecosystem services address these gaps. and benefits as being key to delivering our purposes and duty.

Iping Common ©John Dominick

10 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TO CLIMATE CHANGE PRIMARY HABITATS VULNERABLE 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 IMPACTS AND OBSERVED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 K K K K K K K K K K i i i i i i i i i i l l l l l l l l l l o o o o o o o o o o m m m m m m m m m m e e e e e e e e e e CHANGES ON KEY NATIONAL t t t t 2 t t t t t t r r r r r r r r r r 0 e e e e e e e e e e s s s s s s s s s s K i l o m e t r e s PARK ASSETS AND INTERESTS

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12 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 13 Impacts upon local communities Flooding events increasingly affect the lives of many communities. Along with the risks to life and property there are also impacts upon health and wellbeing, social cohesion and disruption to essential services. Extremes or increases in summer temperatures can lead to increased mortality and morbidity in elderly or vulnerable groups of the population. Wellbeing decreases as a result of extreme cold spells or heat waves that exceed seasonal

Southease Village ©SDNPA/AndrewPickettPhoto.com or comfortable temperatures. Heat waves over the last decade have caused thousands of premature Observed changes in storm severity deaths across central Europe. The and drought conditions. length and intensity of heat waves is projected to increase in the The incidence and severity of With the advent of warmer, wetter long-term. Cold related mortality drought conditions seems to be winters there may be increased is projected to decrease due to increasing across Europe and the risk of flooding of properties and changes in seasonal climatic UK. The south of England was agricultural land in river valleys conditions and improved housing impacted by three major drought and low lying areas. and social conditions. events in 2005, 2011 and 2012. Average UK insured losses of Exposure to ground-level ozone While public water supply has damage to property through wind is currently estimated to cause precedence over other uses, there storms are now at £620 million per around 20,000 deaths per year have been restrictions in place to Impact on water resources annum. Extreme storm events such Europe wide. Future projected manage demand. as those in 1987, 1990, 2001, climate change is expected to Abstraction of water from This is well above the national The insurance costs from natural 2007 and 2016 may become cause an increase in ground level within the National Park average of 159 litres per disasters such as floods and storm more frequent. This will result in ozone concentrations, though this provides a water supply for person, per day. The high events have increased and are a loss of trees, disruption to may be off-set to some degree around 1.2 million people. demand is putting increased projected to increase further in the transport and other public services by reductions in future emissions. Groundwater abstraction totals pressure on natural resources as future. With the projected increase and damage to property. around 215,190 litres per it reduces the amount available The number of heating degree in the intensity and frequency of year, of which 92% is to meet for the environment. This is one Average rainfall across the days, that is the number of days extreme storm events this trend the demand for the public of the causes of poor ecological National Park is currently around that communities are likely to is likely to continue in the future. water supply. Surface water (41% currently failing) and 807mm per annum in the west require to heat their homes, Increases in population, economic abstraction totals a further chemical status (45.4% currently to 879 mm per annum in the has declined by an average of wealth and development on flood 125,514 million litres per year. failing) of many of the streams east. The recharge of the chalk 16 days since the 1980s. This prone areas are also a contributing A majority of this (59%) is for and rivers in the National Park. aquifers occurs during the reduced demand for heating is factor to these increasing costs. fish farming, with a further 29% Increased drought conditions autumn and winter and is the projected to continue. Conversely for the public water supply. and the potential for lower The cost of damage to UK abstraction for the public water we may see an increased levels of aquifer recharge in the properties through flooding has supply. Changes to seasonal energy demand for cooling of The population that is reliant on autumn or winter may further reached around £1.3 billion per rain patterns and evaporation buildings during the summer. water sourced from the South compound this issue. annum. More extreme rainfall rates may affect the ability of Downs National Park uses events, such as in 2007, 2009 the aquifer to recharge fully. an average of 170 litres per and 2012 have caused significant person, per day. disruption and damage to property. River Itchen ©SDNPA/Sam Moore 14 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 15 Observed impacts from invasive species and pathogens3 The pattern of introduction for non-native species has remained consistent, however climatic change is favouring the spread Iping Common with of some species once they have flowering gorse and heather established. There are a number of ©Nigel Symington natural species colonisations that can be attributed to warming such as the southern emerald damselfly. The risk posed by invasive species, pests and pathogens may be Observed changes on habitats, species abundance and distribution increased by an increase in climatic compatibility, especially The balance of tree species in The south east has seen a notable Around 20% of habitats and with milder winters. River Itchen at Ovington, Hampshire ©SDNPA/Guy Edwardes our woodland and the wider increase in risk on the UK wildfire 12% of species are potentially Increases in temperature has landscape may change due to index. The trend towards hotter, threatened by projected climate also favoured some species that some species, such as beech, drier summers may see an increase change impacts. The rate at which are the vector for disease. The Observed impacts on riparian being more sensitive to drought in fire risk on certain habitat types, change may occur is likely to biting midge Culicoides imicola and freshwater ecosystems and sun-scorch. More drought particularly lowland heath which exceed the ability of many species is typically a southern European tolerant trees, such as ash, may is also sensitive to reductions to adapt or move, this is more species but it has been extending UK river temperatures have seen Climate change is predicted to be impacted by the spread of tree in precipitation and may, over likely to be the case in habitats that its range north in recent years and increases broadly in line with those have a significant impact on water pathogens like Phytopthera, that time, be replaced by dry, acid are small, isolated or fragmented. as a result it has contributed to of air temperatures, and in some within the South Downs National affect the health and survival of grasslands. Species that are able to expand the spread of bluetongue virus in freshwater ecosystems there have Park. Groundwater fed rivers mature trees. Observed changes in the range and increase in abundance are UK livestock. Climate change will been observed changes in life cycle such as the River Meon could see Hedgerows are vulnerable to of some animal species are generally those with a relatively increase the risk of other diseases events. There is also evidence of reduced flows of between 5–10%. drought and changes in climatic consistent with recorded increases warm, southerly distribution. Those and pathogens expanding their some declines of fish species as Rivers within clay catchment areas conditions, such as hotter, drier of temperature. that are losing their climate space range into the UK. a result of these changes in water such as the River Ouse could summers which may lead to a in the UK are generally those There is good national data to temperature. Phytoplankton and see its summer flows reduced by decrease in diversity of hedgerow typical of colder, more upland highlight this trend for a range zooplankton blooms are occurring 30%. This will impact on the water species and associated flora. This areas. Genetic adaptation will help of species groups including birds, earlier, the incidence of species resource available, as well as will also reduce their effectiveness some species to expand their range butterflies and dragonflies. (including toxic species) that water quality due to less dilution in terms of proving habitat by increasing their ability for originate from warmer regions is of pollution and discharges from connectivity within the landscape. Data shows that most southerly dispersal, for example the brown also increasing. waste water treatment works. This distributed animal species have argus butterfly has started to use could be compounded by the Some chalk grassland species In terms of water flows there has been subject to a northerly drift in a new food plant, wild geranium effects of soil erosion and turbidity are more sensitive to drought and been a general observed trend distribution over the last 20–25 (LWEC, 2013). heat stress than others. Overall on water quality and ecology. years. This average shift for this since the 1960s towards increased species composition can change, There has been a marked decline time period has been between 31 river flows during winter and with conditions favouring some in wildfowl and wader species in the –60 km, representing an average decreased river flows in summer, grasses. Sites under 5Ha are UK with populations of the Bewick rate of 13.7 to 24.8km per though this is subject to some more vulnerable as they have swan declining by 44% between decade. Altitudinal margins have seasonal and regional variation. less resilience to change so small 1997/98 and 2007/08. They are also shifted upwards by around isolated fragments of habitat now overwintering further to the 25 metres. may be lost. north and east of their range. 3 An infectious agent such as a virus, bacterium, fungus or micro-organism that can cause disease or impact upon species health.

16 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 17 Observed impacts upon agricultural Observed impacts production and systems upon sea levels In terms of agriculture there has The economic impact of soil and coastal zones been a northward shift on the degradation in England is currently Tide gauge measurements show suitable range for growing estimated at between £250 and a mean sea-level rise of around several crops. £350 million per annum. Increased 1.7mm per year as fairly constant cycles of drought and flood are The growing season for a number over the course of the 20th century. projected which will impact upon of crop types has extended by Remote sensing data from satellites soil condition. Changes in soil an average of 11.4 days for the have shown an increase in this micro-biology may impact on its period 1992 to 2008 (EEA, 2012). rise to around 3mm per year fertility and decline of crop yields. The harvest dates for cereals and in the last 20 years. This is not A greater level and rate of surface some perennial crops has been uniform and some locations, and run-off may increase soil erosion advancing by around two days per corresponding vertical movement and nutrient loss on some steeper decade. The yields for some crops of land, are experiencing much cultivated slopes. such as wheat are falling across greater average rises in sea level. northern Europe, while yields of The UK has experienced a long- On the south coast the observed maize are increasing in part due term trend in warmer growing sea level rise between 1970 and to better suitability to changing conditions since the 1970s. In the 2000 has been around 50mm climatic conditions. In the south South Downs this has resulted in and now averages around 3mm there has been an increase in the a larger area of land under vine per year. If this trend continues, demand for water for irrigation and production. If this warming trend combined with an increase reduced yields due to heat waves continues as projected, crops that in seasonal storm events, the and droughts. are better adapted to warmer effectiveness of coastal defences climatic conditions such as fennel Since 1990, southern England may be reduced. This will increase and soya bean may become has experienced an increased the risk of coastal flooding, important commercial crops. trend in soil moisture deficit, with and the sea level rise may also a corresponding increase in water An extended growing season may affect the natural functioning abstraction for irrigation. In spring offer the potential for improved of tidal rivers and estuaries. 2011 the region experienced much grassland productivity, increased drier than average conditions, yields for some better adapted causing problems for farmers crops and the potential for and land managers. If this trend double-cropping. continues we may see a decline in yields or loss of some crops due to drought conditions.

Impacts on cultural

heritage assets Field above Plumpton © SDNPA Historical assets such as barrows, hill forts and buried archaeology are sensitive to rainfall, erosion and encroachment by trees and vegetation. If current and projected trends continue these features will be adversely affected. South Downs Way, Clayton Windmills ©SDNPA/Sam Moore 18 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 19 Our current Partnership develop an integrated approach The climate change adaptation ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Management Plan (2014–2019) to managing land, water and the options considered within this recognises that the conservation living resources of the National report, and the actions proposed, and enhancement of these Park. It also seeks to promote have potential to deliver AND CLIMATE CHANGE ecosystem derived ‘goods and their conservation and sustainable multiple benefits. For example, services’ is fundamental to the use, to ensure that these essential new woodland planting would pursuit of National Park Purposes. natural services are protected and clearly have a positive impact on The plan seeks to deliver a wide enhanced now and for the future. biodiversity, but could also benefit range of ecosystem services and landscape character, recreation, air As a result of this we have applied benefits at a landscape scale. quality, water infiltration and help ecosystem service thinking in prevent soil erosion. Ecosystem Services are Key message from the NEA that It seeks to highlight the important relation to the assessment of the services that the are relevant to this plan are: relationship between people, the climate change risks and assessing Where possible we are proposing landscape and the benefits nature options. This report includes an to move towards naturally natural environment n The natural world, its biodiversity and its provides for society. assessment of the likely impacts functioning systems which in most delivers for society. of climate change on a range of cases offer the best adaptation ecosystems are critically The SDNPA has sought to embed Ecosystem Services (see Annex solutions and deliver multiple They are the functions important to our wellbeing the Ecosystems Approach across 1). This has also influenced the Ecosystem Service benefits. or processes that and economic prosperity, all of its work. selections of options within the ecosystems support but they are consistently undervalued in conventional In terms of its plan making and Action Plan in Annex 3. and provide a range of economic analyses and policies, the SDNPA has sought to goods and services that decision making. Diagram 4: Ecosystem Services Delivered in the South Downs National Park we benefit from. n Ecosystems and ecosystem services, and the ways people The Millennial Ecosystem benefit from them, have Assessment (2005) identified changed markedly in the past four main categories of 60 years, driven by changes Ecosystem Services: in society. Provisioning Services n The UK’s ecosystems are such as food, raw materials, currently delivering services energy and fresh water. well, but others (30%) are in Regulating Services long-term decline. such as air or climate regulation n Population growth and and purification of water. climate change are likely Cultural Services to increase pressure on such as recreational, heritage ecosystem services or experiential values. in the future. Supporting Services n Actions taken and decisions such as habitats and nutrient made now will have or water cycling. consequences far into the future for ecosystem services The National Ecosystem and human wellbeing. It is Assessment (NEA) (2011) was important these consequences the first attempt to assess the are understood and we make full range of benefits that nature the best choices for present provides. The assessment and future generations. also tried to consider how they had been impacted n We need to move to a more historically, and how they may integrated approach to be affected by future changes. ecosystem management. Succisa pratensis, Devil’s-bit scabious ©Nigel Symington

20 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 21 ASSESSMENT OF THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Cuckmere Haven ©Sam Moore

The risks and opportunities from climate change have been considered under Built Environment Natural Farming Recreation the following broad headings and Development Control, Spatial Environment and Forestry and Tourism Planning and Infrastructure. cover the range of natural and cultural Species diversity and habitats, Agriculture, Food Security, Land Rights of Way and Access, assets of the National Park, principle n Flood and coastal erosion Water, Soils and Resource Management, Plantation and Visitor and Recreational land uses, and the core business of the risk management Protection. Managed Woodland. Infrastructure, Visitor Use and Numbers, Transport. Authority itself. These have been based n Spatial planning n Building ecological n Building resilience n on the headings used in the UK climate n Increasing adaptive capacity resilience to the impacts in the agricultural sector Sustainable tourism of climate change n n change adaption plan (2013). n Making homes and Effective water management Making recreational n Developing adaptive infrastructure more resilient communities more resilient n Resilience in forestry The assessment of risks and opportunities from climate capacity at Landscape Scale n Opportunities to diversify change is presented in Annex 2 – Assessment of the n Infrastructure networks n Resilience to pests n Preparing for and the rural economy principal climate change risks and opportunities. (energy, water and and disease accommodating transport etc.) n South Downs Shared Identity inevitable change n Innovation and evidence n Infrastructure management

Landscape Historic Community NPA Business Geology and landform, Environment and Economy Continuity Landscape Character, Historic Buildings and Local Economy, Community n Forward planning for Landscape Features, settlements, Archaeology, Life and Resilience. operational impacts Land use and Settlements. Historic Landscapes. n Healthy and resilient n SDNPA property and estate n Building ecological n Building resilience to the Communities resilience to the impacts n Staff welfare and practices impacts of climate change of climate change n Climate resilience n Adapting to prepare in the health and n Adaptive capacity for inevitable change social care systems at Landscape Scale n Vulnerable groups n Preparing for and accommodating n Emergency services inevitable change and community resilience

22 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 23 SUMMARY OF HIGH RISK INTERDEPENDENCIES, IMPACTS OVER SHORT, BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES MEDIUM AND LONG TERM

Challenges of working Ecological Organisational at a landscape scale There are significant impacts on The South Downs National Park species, habitats and the natural covers an area of 1653km² and The South Downs National assets of the South Downs. In has the largest resident population Park is a landscape that has some cases the speed of change of any UK National Park. There may be greater than the ability are 15 constituent local authorities been heavily influenced of species or habitats to fully and a broad partnership of and shaped by farming adapt or shift their range. Though statutory bodies and interest and other land uses. Many evidence is being accrued, we groups that have been brought do not fully understand the full together around the delivery of of the key risks associated ecological impacts of climate the Partnership Management Plan with climate change relate change. In the longer term there (PMP). The National Park Authority to agriculture and land use. are challenges in deciding which will need to work very effectively species and habitats it is realistic at building and maintaining these There are significant challenges to conserve and enhance, and cross-sectoral partnerships to in terms of influencing land use which need to be supported to deliver the action plan, and the A summary table of the main risks/opportunities decisions and in delivering the adapt or shift their range – or outcomes of the PMP. is included in Annex 2. necessary adaptation responses face loss. at landscape scale. The National This sets out the main These have been based around Park Authority needs to work the projections presented vulnerabilities to climate very closely with farmers and Funding Political within the UK Climate Impact land managers in and around change impacts relating Projections (2009). More recent the National Park. to develop Budgets across the public Shifts in political support and short projections were not available to the key natural and adaptation responses that also sector are declining and under term horizons mean that often for the preparation of this report, cultural assets of the support the economic viability of pressure. Funding adaptation climate change and the risks it being due sometime in 2017. National Park. For each farming and other rural businesses. actions at the necessary scale, presents are not given the priority broad heading the risks Recent review of the evidence and over the long term, will they should be in terms of national supports the likelihood that present a significant challenge. policy. There is also a wide diversity and opportunities have observed changes are likely to When actions are required of public attitudes to climate been scored using a be within the central estimate for from a broad range of partners change and whether it is being simple RAG scoring 2020 and beyond. In terms of and organisations it will be driven by human activity. There the South Downs specifically, the system (low to high) for necessary to develop joint is a need to present the scientific highest risks are those relating funding packages. This may be evidence in such a way that it short, medium and long to water, land management, difficult in light of competing gains wider public acceptance. term projections. flooding and impacts on the corporate priorities but there are There is also a lack of awareness biodiversity and habitats. opportunities to work together of the impacts which also limits to achieve co-financing from the opportunity to make the case existing public budgets, private for action and build capability. sector finance and other national Looking over the Cuckmere River ©SDNPA/Mischa Haller funding sources.

24 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 25 St Catherine’s Hill, nr. Winchester and Cheriton ©Sam Moore

Diagram 5: Climate-smart planning cycle NEXT STEPS: IMPLEMENTING & Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice (National Wildlife Federation, 2014). REVIEWING THE ACTION PLAN

This is well beyond the current Over the longer term other risks The action plan that Review goals, Partnership Management Plan may materialise that were not Implement actions Define planning objectives and appears in Annex 3 is (PMP) cycle, and through to the considered or planned for. It is and monitor results purpose and scope strategies based upon the best end of the expected lifecycle of considered sensible to review this current evidence – both the current Local Plan document. in tandem with the PMP cycle so observed and projected In many cases these actions will that planned adaptation responses need to be carried forward into can be built into our delivery – and aims to set a subsequent Management Plan framework. Evaluate and select Assess climate impact long-term horizon for and Corporate Plan cycles. In terms of delivering climate adaptation options and vulnerabilities planned actions. Many of In the short term the risk change adaptation at a truly the risks and opportunities assessment and action plan will landscape scale, we will also identified through this help to inform the review and need to look beyond our set priorities for the next PMP boundary. The South Downs adaptation report require (post 2019). The action plan will National Park Authority will look Review goals, Identify possible actions over the medium also inform the development of to work collaboratively with the objectives and adaptation options to long term (up to 2030 the next 5 Year Corporate Plan other Protected Landscapes and strategies and beyond). (2016–2021) for impacts that adjoining Areas of Outstanding relate to business continuity, Natural Beauty. This will help to property and estate or staff welfare develop a strategic approach for the National Park Authority and deliver adaptation responses specifically. across organisational, sectoral and geographic boundaries. By Review vulnerabilities Looking ahead, the risk using the collective power of the assessment and action plan will protected landscapes, and their also need to be kept under review statutory Management Plans as as climate change impacts that a delivery mechanism, we can have been considered may face up to the challenges and occur over a shorter timescale opportunities that climate than originally projected. change presents.

26 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 27 Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions ANNEX 1 – ECOSYSTEM Nutrient Plants, animals and Extreme cycles of drought n Encourage land management practices that Cycling micro-organisms are and flooding will increase maintain the structural and microbial condition essential to the natural nutrient loss through surface of soils and maximise its ability to store water SERVICE IMPACTS cycle of nutrients run-off and change soil and nutrients. and help maintain microbial activity. Soil drying n Promote soil conservation measures soil and water and resulting changes in Supporting Services especially in areas that are prone to erosion quality. Increased agricultural practices may or may be more susceptible to drought Functions provided by ecosystems that underpin all of the other services. levels of nutrients impact on its ability to conditions. such as nitrates and sequester carbon. Loss of soil Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions phosphates from condition will affect its ability n Encourage measures that retain soils in situ sewage and fertilisers to store water and nutrients such as contour ploughing, minimum or ‘no Soil Formation Soil is formed by Higher temperatures and n Maintain good soil structure and condition can result in poor which will affect soil fertility tillage and long term grass lays. Promote the the interaction repeated cycles of drought by maintaining high organic matter levels water quality. and yields. Excessive nutrients use of green manures and cover crops. between plants, and flooding will increase the to help retain water and nutrients in the soil. loads may also be carried into micro-organisms risk of soil erosion. Climatic Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid associated water bodies. This and the underlying change may also impact on over-grazing. will impact on water quality geology. We depend soil microbial activity and the n Where there is high risk of soil erosion and on their chemical and on healthy soils for rate that organic matter is encourage conservation measures such as environmental status. growing food. Soils recycled. contour ploughing, buffer strips, improving soil are slow to form Water Cycling We rely on the natural Increased intensity or duration n Work to restore the hydrological connection structure or changes in land management such but can be quickly environment and its of drought events may impact between rivers, open water and wetlands. as transition from arable to long-term grass lays functions to provide on surface and groundwater degraded by poor n Develop catchment level approaches and or cover crops. us with fresh water. levels. Lower levels of land management, techniques that have potential to deliver infiltration may also mean erosion and the n Improve adaptive capacity through the use enhanced flood storage and manage rates that the aquifer may become impacts of weather of buffer strips, cover crops, contour ploughing of run-off. and climate. to retain the soil in situ. depleted at times of greater demand. This problem may be n Encourage naturally functioning floodplains n In high risk areas promote shift from arable exacerbated by an increased and sustainable urban drainage schemes that to minimum or ‘no tillage’ and long-term demand for abstraction during plan for the potential changes in flooding as a grass lays. the summer months. This will result of climate change. n impact upon the availability of Primary We rely greatly on Rates of primary production Maintain good soil structure and condition n Promote the role of Green Infrastructure water for agriculture, public Production processes such as and photosynthesis may by maintaining high organic matter levels (GI) and Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUDs) supply. It will also impact upon photosynthesis where increase as a result of extended to help retain water and nutrients in the soil. to enhance the resilience of urban areas. plant communities growing seasons and warmer, Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid wetland habitats and their use solar energy wetter conditions. This is likely over-grazing. associated bio-diversity. n Increased permeability of urban surfaces to convert water to be a short term effect, as and use of rain gardens will help improve n Research which species may be most Chalk streams and ponds and nutrients into if observed temperatures are storage and infiltration. impacted by changes in climatic conditions. may dry out due to drought biological growth, at the upper level of current Plan ahead in terms of planting species that conditions or experience n Create habitat and wet woodland along food and raw projections (>2°C) then this may be more resilient to prevailing climatic changes in flow. Potential streams and rivers to enhance connectivity, materials. increase will be offset. conditions in the medium/long term. drying up of spring lines and flood storage, help reduce run-off and winterbournes in their upper diffuse pollution. courses with impacts upon their associated wetlands. Deterioration of wetland habitats due to the impact on their hydrology.

28 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 29 Supporting Services (continued) Provisioning Services Products of ecosystems such as water, food, and the supply of raw materials.

Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Biodiversity Plants and animals Changes in species n Target project funding and environmental Water Supply Clean water is Higher summer temperatures n Encourage good soil and land management and Wildlife drive many of the composition and declines grant funding towards measures that increase essential for life. The and seasonal reductions in the practices that maintain and improve water processes that in diversity due to changes resilience to a changing climate, support chalk aquifers and rate of rainfall could reduce the infiltration and reduces water run-off. result in a healthy in climatic conditions and biodiversity and provide wider ecosystem river catchments of rate of aquifer recharge and n Promote uptake of high precision or ecosystem, and the vulnerability of some species to service benefits. the South Downs deplete the supply of water. This low-input farming techniques so that the benefits we get from temperature change. Impacts provides drinking will impact upon the availability n Increase habitat connectivity and the application of nitrate fertilisers does not result it. The richness and on species may include water for 1.2 million of water for agriculture and permeability of the landscape to wildlife. in excess nutrients passing into the aquifers at diversity of species changes in distribution and people and we rely public supply. It will also impact Undertake adaptive management and ensure key times of recharge (autumn/winter). and habitats are abundance, and the timing of on the supply for all upon wetland habitats and their that areas of valuable habitat are bigger, better vital to conserve as seasonal events and habitat our commercial and associated biodiversity. managed and joined up. Increase the quality they support and use. As a consequence there domestic uses. and habitat diversity of wildlife sites. underpin many of are likely to be changes in Food Farmers in the South Climate change is likely to impact n Support for farmers in terms of the processes we the composition of plant and n Improve the quality of existing ‘core’ wildlife Production Downs produce upon the kinds of crops that will diversification to new crops and livestock rely on to sustain our animal communities. Habitats sites (such as Sites of Special Scientific Interest food and other be grown in the South Downs breeds that may be more resilient to changing lives. Many species are also likely to change, for (SSSIs)) to enable populations of target species raw materials. The National Park. Warmer, drier climatic conditions. of plants and animals example higher growth rates in to grow and expand their range. farmed environment seasonal conditions may impact are also important forests. Decrease in the overall n Move towards more drought tolerant n Deliver large scale habitat creation where of the South Downs upon yields and the viability of as they provide food ecological connectivity of varieties of arable crops to reduce the need opportunities exist, create buffer zones for is a major producer livestock systems. There may and other resources the wider landscape. Loss of for irrigation. vulnerable or fragmented habitats. of cereals and be more drought tolerant or (e.g. timber) for condition of designated sites wheat, oilseeds, novel crops, there may be an n Use of natural pest controls or pest people, and wildlife or priority habitats may occur. n Work at a landscape and catchment scale sheep and cattle increase in demand for water for resistant crop species to reduce the need has significant cultural to deliver effective environmental outcomes, Species migration and loss amongst other irrigation. Warmer wetter winters for pesticide use. heritage value. allow for climate change adaptation and of small or isolated patches produce. may lead to increased survival improve ecosystem service function. n Encourage mixed sustainable farming of habitat will affect their rates for crop pests and diseases that protect the environmental assets and resilience. Fragmentation of n Develop and implement a landscape-scale with a corresponding increase in ecosystem services of the South Downs while some habitat types such as strategy for tackling invasive and non-native the need for pesticides and other maintaining the profitability of farming. chalk and other unimproved species. Work to reduce their impact and pest controls. grassland will limit their spread within the National Park. n Encourage adaptation responses and land Direct damage from extreme adaptive capacity. Potential use practices that support or benefit the weather events such as drought, for increased competition special qualities of the National Park. flooding or storms may impact from invasive and non-native on the viability of harvests. The species. Loss of native species impact of climate change on that may be more susceptible agriculture globally may lead to drought or water stress. to greater intensification as the Planting of non-native trees need for greater food security may lead to a decline in native exerts an effect. species and composition of Timber Woodland cover Drought sensitive species may n Research on which tree species may woodland. Increase in the loss is around 24% of be impacted by hotter drier be most impacted by changes in climatic of trees to disease and impact the total area of the conditions. Vulnerable hardwood conditions. Plan ahead in terms of planting of pest species on growth National Park. Many species such as beech may be species that may be more resilient to prevailing and vigour. Species that are estate woodlands significantly affected. Higher climatic conditions in the medium/long term. adapted to, or reliant on, native in the central and temperatures, dryer conditions trees may be impacted by shift n Encourage best practice woodland western downs are and longer growing seasons in their range. management techniques to adapt to changing under commercial may favour new or introduced climatic conditions. management. There species. Forestry plantations is great potential for may suffer increased losses n Encourage woodland management that bringing other areas and damage from drought, provides the best range of ecosystem service of woodland into strong winds and storm events. benefits including enhancing biodiversity, active management, Reductions in timber supply from natural flood management, air quality, carbon through coppicing overseas may stimulate demand sequestration and renewable energy potential. for example. for increased UK production n Promote the benefits of wood pasture, in- and potential for carbon field and boundary trees. sequestration.

30 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 31 Provisioning Services (continued) Regulating Services The results of natural processes such as water purification and air quality.

Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Energy The South Downs Potential for increased demand n Support opportunities for renewable energy Air Quality Plants and trees Higher temperatures and n Work to develop a Green Infrastructure (GI) has good conditions for wood fuels and planting production that provide other ecosystem regulation are central to the weaker air circulation leads framework for the National Park with partner for a range of of woodland for carbon service benefits such as wood fuel or growth cycle of oxygen and to increased low level ozone planning authorities. Highlight areas for GI renewable energy, sequestration. Increased of bio-fuel crops. carbon dioxide in formation and poorer air investment in and around the National Park. there is scope energy demands may drive the atmosphere, they quality. A potential lengthening n Encourage uptake of micro-generation and n Promote green corridors, high quality for developing development of community have an important role of the ozone ‘season’ and community based renewable projects that green spaces and street trees within the urban resources such as based micro-renewable projects. to play in regulating greater concentrations minimises the impact on the South Downs environment. wood fuel that also Large scale infrastructure levels of air pollution. of ground level ozone, landscape. improve landscape projects are likely to have particulates and other air n Tree planting in appropriate locations to help quality and adverse effects on landscape pollutants. Increased exposure regulate localised air quality and provide wider biodiversity. character. to poor air quality for residents ecosystem service benefits for people and nature. and vulnerable groups causing Genetic The biodiversity and Decline in overall species n Promote the collection and use of local impacts on public health diversity seed bank within diversity due to changes in seed stock in habitat restoration or the (respiratory illness and risk of the National Park climatic conditions and inability creation of new habitat. premature death). are a resource for to adapt to changes. Loss of n Undertake adaptive management the future. Local habitats or species due to the Climate Plants and trees Climate change impacts, and n Identify the best carbon storage options for the and increase the genetic diversity and breeds of sheep contraction or shift in extent of regulation have an influence on potential changes in land National Park that provide the widest range of heterogeneity of key species on wildlife sites. and cattle help their range or from the change in and carbon climate at both local management in response to ecosystem service benefits. maintain important climatic conditions. Introduction n Develop a strategy for tackling invasive storage and global scales. them, are likely to affect the n Increase woodland cover where the best genetic diversity of new species and the loss or and non-native species. Work to reduce their They absorb and ability of soils to store carbon. opportunities exist and improve the management of and contribute to decline of others less suited to impact and spread within the National Park. store carbon from the Increased temperatures and existing woodlands. both our cultural the climatic conditions. Increase atmosphere. The thin drying out of soils will cause heritage and local in range and extent of invasive or mineral soils on the additional losses of stored n Encourage the adoption of land, soils and habitat distinctiveness. pest species. chalk also have limited carbon. Increases in woodland management practices that enhance the capacity capacity to capture cover have the potential for carbon storage within the National Park. and store carbon. to increase the amount of n Encourage an increase in urban trees to provide sequestered carbon, and ecosystem service benefits within towns and villages. also improve the ability of Promote the value of trees, parks and other Green associated soils to retain and Infrastructure. store carbon. Water flow The water catchments, Increased risk of flooding n Catchment level approaches and Natural and flood rivers and streams help of agricultural land and Flood management techniques have potential regulation regulate the flow of settlements during extreme to deliver enhanced flood storage and manage water and drainage rainfall events. Development rates of run-off. of the land through on existing flood plains and n Encourage naturally functioning floodplains storage and reducing reduction in the space available and sustainable urban drainage schemes that plan run-off. If properly for water will compound this for the potential changes in flooding as a result of managed they can issue. Low permeability of climate change. help reduce flooding urban surfaces mean high rate at time of high rainfall, of run-off and conventional n Promote the role for Green Infrastructure (GI) and and sustain river flows storm water systems being Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS) to and surface water overwhelmed. enhance the resilience of urban areas. levels during droughts. n Encourage the creation of new habitat and wet woodland along streams and rivers to enhance connectivity, flood storage, help reduce run-off and diffuse pollution. n Increased permeability of urban surfaces and use of rain gardens will help improve storage and infiltration. n Discourage development within floodplains and areas that will become prone to flooding. n Seek to influence flood management schemes so that they facilitate natural functions and deliver a wide range of Ecosystem Service benefits.

32 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 33 Regulating Services (continued)

Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Erosion The light, shallow Soil types that are sensitive to n Improve adaptive capacity through the use Pollination The effective Climate change is likely n Target project funding and environmental regulation soils on the chalk drought conditions, such as of buffer strips, cover crops, contour ploughing pollination of crops to impact the distribution, grant funding towards measures that increase ridge and the sandy shallow lime-rich soils over to retain the soil in situ. by bees and other abundance and/or resilience to a changing climate, support soils in the west chalk are more prone to soil pollinators is vital to effectiveness of pollinator biodiversity and provide wider Ecosystem n In high risk areas promote shift from arable to weald are unstable erosion. Shallow, thin soils on the life cycle of many species. This will have a knock Service benefits. minimum or ‘no tillage’ and long-term grass lays. and can be prone to steep scarp slopes have the plants. We rely on this on effect for agriculture and n Encourage land management practices that erosion. Erosion is lowest adaptive capacity in ‘natural service’ for biodiversity, for example food support pollinators. Use of natural pest controls reduced by tree and terms of climate change. Land growing food crops crops and other plant species or pest resistant crop species to reduce the vegetation cover. On management practices can as well as other plants that rely on insect pollination. need for pesticide use. farmed land the risk often compound these issues. and wildflowers. of erosion can be n Increase habitat connectivity and the managed by taking permeability of the landscape to wildlife. care over cultivation, Undertake adaptive management and ensure particularly on slopes. that areas of valuable habitat are bigger, better managed and joined up. Increase the Soil quality Shallow, lime rich soils Higher temperatures and n Maintain good soil structure and condition quality and habitat diversity of wildlife sites. over chalk are free repeated cycles of drought by maintaining high organic matter levels draining, which helps will have an effect on the soils to help retain water and nutrients in the soil. n Promote the role for Green Infrastructure water infiltration and ability to retain/process water Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid over- (GI) to enhance pollination and other the recharge of the and nutrients for plants and grazing. Ecosystem Service benefits within the urban water aquifer. Soils are habitats. As an underpinning environment. n Where there is high risk of soil erosion low in organic matter service this will have a direct encourage conservation measures such as where they are under impact on agriculture and our contour ploughing, buffer strips, improving soil intensive cultivation. ability to grow food crops. structure or changes in land management such as transition from arable to long-term grass lays or cover crops. Water quality The soil structure and Higher air and water n Encourage good soil and land management underlying chalk and temperatures may lower practices that maintain and improve water greensand geology dissolved oxygen levels and infiltration, reduce water run-off and filters water and increase nutrient loads and the diffuse pollution. helps to regulate concentration of pollutants. n Maintain flows to streams and rivers so that water quality in the Increased storm water run- good chemical and environmental status is underlying aquifer. off washing sediments and maintained. other contaminants into drinking water sources. This n Create buffer strips around source may contribute to the failure protection zones and water courses to reduce of water bodies and ground excessive nutrient and sediment input into water to meet existing quality water bodies. standards in terms of chemical n Promote catchment level approaches and and biological status. As a examine potential for natural flood storage result there will be an increased and habitat creation which reduces pollution need for treatment of drinking run-off during extreme weather events. water to meet existing quality standards. Disease and Natural processes Increase in average n Encourage land management practices that pest regulation such as predation and temperatures may increase support natural pest regulation. Use of natural climatic conditions the range of pests, infectious pest controls or pest resistant crop species to help to control the agents or vectors for disease reduce the need for pesticide use. spread of disease and that affect humans. Less frost n Develop a strategy for tackling invasive and pests. and warmer damp conditions non-native species. Work to reduce their would increase the prevalence impact and spread within the National Park. and spread of pests, diseases and fungal bacteria would also impact upon wild species health and biodiversity.

34 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 35 Cultural Services ‘Non-material’ benefits that result from our interaction with the natural environment.

Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Inspiration/ The South Downs is Changes in the distinctive form n Take a ‘landscape led’ approach to Cultural There are traces of Key historic assets may be n Improve data and evidence on the Spiritual values renowned for the beauty and landscape character over developing the Local Plan document for the Heritage values human influence and vulnerable to damage from climate change impacts upon heritage of its landscapes and its time. Changes as a result of National Park area. settlement in the South changes in climatic conditions assets across the National Park. Use this sense of place. They have different climatic conditions Downs from Mesolithic or increased incidence or data to develop solutions that enhance n Develop strong Development provided inspiration for may introduce new variation hunter gatherers and severity of storm events. the resilience of historic assets and help Management policies that seek to protect many famous artists and in colours and textures within early agriculture through Impact upon the integrity protect them for the future. and enhance the landscape character writers. They continue to the landscape and affect its to modern times. This of buried archaeology and iconic or important views within the provide people with the visual character. Potential represents a huge particularly where there may be National Park. opportunity to understand for long-term change in the time depth within the waterlogged features that are and enjoy its special style, pattern or location of n Work to influence positive impact on landscape. The National best preserved in situ. Damage qualities. To escape, be built development may alter landscape character and ecosystem Park has a rich historic to buried archaeology from inspired, and find spiritual existing settlement patterns function though these assets while heritage in terms of waterlogging or increased soil renewal. and character. Impacts on recognising that landscape character will still its art, culture, ancient erosion from run-off exposing landscape character and on change or alter over time. monuments and historic sites or damaging stratigraphy, iconic or distinctive views buildings. This has great artefacts or evidence. within and from the National social value, as well as an Park. Potential effect on economic value. expansive views and open Recreation Recreation and tourism Rights of way and access n Work with partners and recreation skylines from incongruous and tourism is a significant feature corridors become difficult to interest groups to manage and promote features or development. services of the area with an use or impassable due to poor recreational access and to provide a Tranquillity Tranquility is considered Pressure for development in n Improve data and evidence by mapping extensive network of ground conditions or flooding. greater variety of recreational activities. to be a state of calm, and around the National Park the areas that have the greatest, or least, access routes, popular Loss of path amenity and more n Promote opportunities for local and quietude and is may impact on areas of high tranquillity across the National Park. Use beauty spots and visitor path maintenance required to small businesses and help develop associated with a feeling tranquillity. Honeypot sites and this data to help protect and enhance the attractions. The area keep them usable and clear of a stronger local tourism economy of peace. It relates to popular visitor attractions may areas of highest tranquillity. attracts 39 million overgrowth. Bridges, riverside especially in the sectors of food, drink and quality of life, and there is become increasingly crowded recreational day visits paths and other access n Develop strong Development Control accommodation. good scientific evidence with a loss of amenity and per year and makes a infrastructure may be damaged policies that seek to protect relative that it also helps to tranquillity. This may lead to a significant contribution or lost due to flooding or n Ensure that the potential benefits to the tranquillity within the National Park. Avoid promote health and well- decline in relative tranquillity to the health and well- increased riverbank erosion. rural economy from increased number intrusive development that will impact on being. across the National Park and being of visitors and of domestic and UK tourists with greater areas of high tranquillity. a loss of experiential quality residents alike. viability for tourism businesses away from It is a perceptual quality within the landscape. n Work with constituent local authorities the core summer season. of the landscape, and to manage and lessen the impacts of light is influenced by things pollution and retain areas of dark night that people can both skies. Promote their importance through see and hear in the the designation and promotion of the landscape around them. It ‘Dark Night Skies’ Reserve within the is recognised as a special National Park. quality of the South Downs National Park. In a busy and pressured region it is a resource that is greatly valued by residents and visitor alike.

36 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 37 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Report: ANNEX 2 – ASSESSMENT OF THE Risk/Opportunity Matrix PRINCIPAL CLIMATE CHANGE Likelihood of a risk or opportunity occurring is rated 1 to 5 The impact of a risk or opportunity is rated from -5 to +5 Likelihood 1 Rare Risk -5 Catastrophic RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 2 Unlikely -4 Major 3 Possible -3 Moderate UKCIP Projections – Hotter drier summers 4 Likely -2 Minor 5 Almost Certain -1 Slight

Projection Increase in average summer temperatures Change in average summer rainfall (likelihood) No Change 0 No Change Date (likelihood) Opportunity +1 Slight Unlikely to be Likely to Unlikely to be Unlikely to be Likely to Unlikely to be +2 Minor less than be (central more than less than be (central more than Cultural Services estimate) estimate) +3 Moderate ‘Non-material’ benefits that result from our interaction with the natural environment. 2020 +0.5C +1.4C +2.4C -23% -7% +11% +4 Major 2050 +1.1C +2.2C +4.0C -38% -18% +5% +5 Fantastic 2080 +1.6C +3.4C +5.6C -44% -22% +5% The impact of a risk or opportunity is rated from -5 to +5 Risk -5 Catastrophic -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 UKCIP Projections – Warmer wetter winters -4 Major -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 -3 Moderate -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 Projection Increase in average winter temperatures Change in average winter rainfall (likelihood) -2 Minor -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Date (likelihood) -1 Slight -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Unlikely to be Likely to Unlikely to be Unlikely to be Likely to Unlikely to be less than be (central more than less than be (central more than No Change 0 No Change 0 0 0 0 0 estimate) estimate) Opportunity +1 Slight 1 2 3 4 5 2020 +0.6C +1.3C +2.1C -3% +4% +12% +2 Minor 2 4 6 8 10 2050 +1.1C +2.2C +3.4C +1% +10% +22% +3 Moderate 3 6 9 12 15 2080 +1.6C +3.0C +4.6C +2% +13% +30% +4 Major 4 8 12 16 20

Note: In addition this adaptation report also considers other likely impacts such as more extreme weather events on the assets of the National Park. +5 Fantastic 5 10 15 20 25

Simplified Rating (used in the summary of key risks and opportunities)

Risk (-) Score Simplified RAG Score Opportunity (+) Score Simplified RAG Score 1-6 Low 1-6 Low 7-15 Medium 7-15 Medium 16-25 High 16-25 High

38 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 39 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Report: Risk/Opportunity Assessment Built Environment – Development Management, Planning and Infrastructure

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Built Increased seasonal Greater risk of flooding due Commercial and residential properties are at an 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -12 4 -5 -20 Management Plan policy Environment rainfall to increased occurrence and increased risk of flooding. 9, 19 and 24: Natural severity of weather events (D) flood management and Opportunities around the design and installation of 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 5 +20 catchment level approaches. Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUD) and schemes to improve the permeability of urban surfaces. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD17: Flood Risk Management. Development Management Policy SD42: Sustainable Drainage. Key assets and infrastructure Damage and deterioration of the protective building 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Local Plan Strategic Policy may be vulnerable to envelope caused by more severe weather conditions. SD31: Climate Change and damage (D) Sustainable Construction. Buildings may have inadequate guttering or on site 2 -2 -4 2 -2 -4 2 -3 -6 drainage resulting in water ingress and structural Development Management damage. Policy SD38: Energy Performance and Historic Increase in interior dampness and exposure to mould 2 -2 -4 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 Buildings. and environmental problems caused by poorer indoor air quality. Built Increased summer Urban settlements have an Increase in development pressure for building 2 -2 -4 3 -2 -6 4 -2 -8 Local Plan Strategic Policy Environment temperatures. increased risk of impacts adaptation and alterations e.g. air conditioning. SD31: Climate Change and from the urban heat island Sustainable Construction. Challenge in retro-fitting existing housing stock and 2 -2 -4 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 effect (ID) lack of code for sustainable homes for new build. Development Management Policy SD38: Energy Impact and potential damage to building materials 2 -2 -4 2 -2 -4 2 -3 -6 Performance and Historic from increased ultra-violet radiation. Buildings. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD6: Design. Additional opportunity for new design codes or 2 +4 +8 3 +4 +12 4 +5 +20 Local Plan Strategic Policy sustainable building requirements for better housing SD6: Design. design to meet challenges. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD31: Climate Change and Sustainable Construction. Impact on community resilience and increased risks 2 -3 -6 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan policy for some vulnerable groups. 34 & 50: Supporting and enabling balanced communities. Opportunity to increase resilience of communities 3 +4 12 4 +4 16 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Policy 2: through greater use of green infrastructure within Ecosystem Services. urban settlements. Local Plan Strategic Policy 14: Green Infrastructure. Development Management Policy SD36: Local Green Space.

40 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 41 Built environment (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Air quality impact (ID) Higher temperatures and weaker air circulation leads 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -16 Local Plan Strategic Policy to increased low level ozone formation and poorer 14: Green Infrastructure. air quality. Management Plan Policy 2 Potential lengthening of the ozone ‘season’ and 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 & 4: Ecosystem Services and concentration of ground level ozone, particulates and habitat connectivity. other air pollutants. Management Plan policy Increased exposure to poor air quality for residents 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 38: Reduced car travel. and vulnerable groups causing impacts on public Development Management health (respiratory illness and risk of premature death). Policy SD58: Air Quality. Increased pressure on the Increase in the incidence and severity of drought 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policies public water supply with conditions could lead to water shortages. 2, 23 & 25: Ecosystem the projected growth in Services, promoting water Opportunity to influence water company’s forward 3 +3 +9 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 development (D) efficiency and working with plans and to actively promote sustainable patterns of water companies to ensure water use across the sectors. a sustainable supply. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD15: Aquifers. Key assets and infrastructure Buildings & infrastructure may be at an increased fire 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 may be vulnerable to risk due to seasonal changes in climatic conditions. damage (D) Energy Hotter drier Longer hours of sunlight Increased potential for solar or PV energy production, 2 +3 +6 3 +4 +12 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Policy 56: Production summers lower reliance on the national grid. Renewable Energy. Higher demand for fitting solar and PV, changes in the 2 +3 +6 3 +3 +9 3 +4 +12 Local Plan Strategic Policy design of buildings. SD31: Climate Change and sustainable construction. Lower summer rainfall Reduced viability of micro-hydro in some locations. 2 -2 -4 2 -3 -6 2 -3 -6 Development Management Warmer wetter Higher winter rainfall Higher rainfall and head of water would increase the 2 +2 +4 3 +3 +9 3 +4 +12 Policy SD56: Renewable winters viability of micro-hydro in some locations. Energy. Increase in Risk of damage to local Increased outages of local energy supplies, damage 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Development Management incidence and energy infrastructure. to infrastructure, power lines being bought down. Policy SD54: Supporting severity of seasonal infrastructure development. storm events Mitigation and Adaptation of energy Landscape character may be impacted by changes to 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan climate change infrastructure in response the energy infrastructure and new technology to meet Outcome & Policy 1: responses to climate change, need the needs of greater resilience e.g. large scale wind or Conserving and enhancing for greater resilience to solar farms. Landscape Character and withstand changes in climatic resilience to climate change. conditions (ID) Sea Level Increase in Increased risk of flooding Low lying coastal areas and settlements at risk from 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Local Plan Strategic Policy Rise incidence and due to sea level rise (D) flooding and inundation by the sea. SD10: Open Coast and SD17: severity of seasonal Flood risk management. storm events Increased risk of loss of heritage assets or 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Policy 9: archaeological sites from flooding or inundation Protection of heritage assets. by the sea.

42 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 43 Built environment (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Reduced effectiveness of Loss of low lying land and habitat from coastal 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan existing infrastructure or squeeze. Increased erosion and sedimentation. Outcome 2: Adaptive natural defences (D) capacity in the Landscape. Enhanced or heavily engineered coastal flood 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 defences could further impair natural functioning Management Plan Policy 2: systems and cause knock on problems in other areas Ecosystem Services. of coastline. Management Plan Policy Inundation and flooding from more frequent storms 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 6: Natural processes and and sea level rise may damage or disrupt water and resilience in marine habitats. waste management systems. Policy 7: Sustainable management of the coast. Opportunity for coastal re-alignment schemes and 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 ‘making space for water’ to re-establish more natural Local Plan Strategic functioning systems and to create new habitat. Policy SD10: Open Coast and SD17: Flood risk management. Saltwater intrusion causing Impact upon the quality and availability of drinking 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy increased salinity of both water supplies in coastal areas. 23: Sustainability of water surface and groundwater in resources. coastal areas. (ID) Local Plan Strategic Policy SD15: Aquifers. Coastal Squeeze Existing developed land Pressure on the NPA to allow development on areas 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Outcome becoming inundated or that are currently protected as adjoining areas are 2: Adaptive capacity in the being lost through coastal affected by sea level rise. Landscape. erosion. Management Plan Policy Conflict between different Restricted availability of land may result in greater 2 -4 -8 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 6: Natural processes and land uses may increase ‘less planning or land use pressure on the National Park. resilience in marine habitats. space, more pressure’ Policy 7: Sustainable management of the coast. Local Plan Core Policy SD1: Sustainable Development. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD10: Open Coast and SD17: Flood risk management. Coastal Increase in Increased erosion of chalk Risk to property and farmland along the top of the 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy Erosion incidence cliffs from increase in storm chalk cliffs. 6: Natural processes and and severity and wave impact (D) resilience in marine habitats. Loss of cliff top habitats on the undeveloped coast line. 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 of seasonal Policy 7: Sustainable storm events Loss of cliff top paths and other recreational and 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 management of the coast. cultural assets. Spatial Mitigation Landscape character may be Increased development of renewable energy 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Planning responses to impacted by new infrastructure technology and other large infrastructure projects. Outcome & Policy 1: climate change development (ID) Conserving and enhancing Landscape Character and Cumulative change in land The undeveloped character of the South Downs, 2 -4 -8 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 resilience to climate change. use patterns and management especially the open and expansive views from the as a response to climate chalk scarps, may be affected. change impacts. (ID)

44 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 45 Natural Environment – Species diversity, habitats, water, soils and resource protection.

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Species Hotter drier Potential shift in species Decline in overall species diversity. 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Outcome Diversity summers range due to changes in 2: Adaptive capacity in the Impacts upon species phenology with changes 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 climatic conditions. (ID) Landscape. in growing season and biological events such as flowering, budding and egg laying/hatching Management Plan Policy 2, 4 & occurring earlier. 5: Ecosystem Services, habitat connectivity and priority species. Arrival of new species and the loss or decline of 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 others less suited to the climatic conditions. Management Plan Policy 8: Control of harmful or invasive Loss of habitats or species due to the contraction in 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Species. extent of their range or from the change in climatic conditions. Local Plan Strategic Policy 12 & 13: Biodiversity and protected sites. Increase in range and extent of invasive or pest 3 -2 -6 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 species. Woodland Hotter drier Impacts on Ancient Broadleaved and ancient woodland will see changes 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome summers Woodland due to greater in species type and composition. 2: Adaptive capacity in the incidence of drought (ID) Landscape to climate change. Changes in species and composition of woodland 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 ground flora. Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: Habitat connectivity, woodland Loss of veteran or landscape trees that are more 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 creation with resilient species. susceptible to increased temperatures or water stress e.g. beech Development Management Policy SD37: Trees, Woodlands and Hedgerows. Warmer wetter Less frost and warmer damp Damage and loss of landscape trees to disease and 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 8: winters conditions would increase fungal bacteria e.g. ash, horse chestnut and beech. Control of harmful or invasive the prevalence of pests, Species. diseases and fungal bacteria Management Plan Outcome e.g. phytophthora. (ID) 2: Adaptive capacity in the Landscape. Extended growing season Opportunity for other tree species to expand their 2 +3 +6 3 +3 +9 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: and less injury to trees as a range. Habitat connectivity, woodland result of cold weather (D) creation with resilient species. Increase in Damage to trees and Loss and damage to mature trees and hedgerows by 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: incidence and woodland by strong winds wind damage. Habitat connectivity, woodland severity of seasonal and increased strength of creation with resilient species. storm events storms (D) Opportunity for new Increase in tree cover and related carbon 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Policy 17 & woodland planting to sequestration and other ecosystem service benefits 18: Access to grant schemes, enhance potential for natural from new planting and more integrated management supporting new planting and flood management (ID) of catchments. economic viability of woodland.

46 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 47 Natural Environment (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Hedgerows Hotter drier Impacts upon species Decline in species diversity and loss of resources to 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome 2 & summers diversity in hedgerows wildlife. 3: Increased resilience to climate due to changes in climatic change and habitat connectivity. Loss of key species due to drought stress. 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 conditions and vulnerability Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: of some species to Decrease in the overall ecological connectivity of the 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Habitat connectivity, woodland temperature change (ID) wider landscape. creation with resilient species. Loss of historic character within the landscape. 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Development Management Policy SD37: Trees, Woodlands and Hedgerows. Calcareous Hotter drier Impacts on chalk grassland Species rich chalk grassland may see changes in 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome 2 & and semi- summers habitats due to greater species composition and declines in overall species 3: Increased resilience to climate natural incidence of drought (D) diversity. change and habitat connectivity. grassland Loss of condition of designated sites or priority 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 2, 4 & habitats may occur. 5: Ecosystem Services, habitat connectivity and priority species. Species migration and loss of small or isolated 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 patches of habitat will affect their resilience. Local Plan Strategic Policy 12 & 13: Biodiversity and protected sites. Fragmentation of some habitat types will limit their 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 adaptive capacity. Heathland Hotter drier Impacts on heathland Increased levels of fire risk on heathland areas. 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Outcome 2 & Habitat summers habitats due to greater 3: Increased resilience to climate Potential for increased competition from invasive and 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 incidence of drought (ID) change and habitat connectivity. non-native species. Management Plan Policy 4 & 5: Habitat connectivity and priority species. Management Plan Policy 8: Control of harmful or invasive Species. Local Plan Strategic Policy 12 & 13: Biodiversity. Changes in water Disruption to water and waste water systems may 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policies 2, temperature leading to require changes in infrastructure to deal with the risks 23 & 25: Ecosystem Services, increase in occurrence and to ecosystem or public health. promoting water efficiency, risk from invasive or harmful wastewater management and water-borne species (ID) working with water companies to ensure a sustainable supply. Higher air & water Threats to ecosystem and public health from pollution 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 temperatures combined with and microbial contamination of water. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD16: increased nutrient pollution Rivers and Watercourses. causes an increased Management Plan Policy 8: incidence of harmful algal Control of harmful blooms (ID) or invasive Species. Need for greater investment Increased costs for ensuring quality and safety of the 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Development Management Policy in water infrastructure to public water supply SD54: Supporting infrastructure maintain the quality of the development. public water supply.

48 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 49 Natural Environment (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Warmer wetter Greater intensity of storm Increased incidence and severity of flooding could 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan policy 9, 19 & winters events may exceed the overwhelm or damage existing water and drainage 24: Natural flood management designed capacity of infrastructure. and catchment level approaches. drinking water, waste Local Plan Strategic Policy SD17: water or storm drainage Flood Risk Management. infrastructure (D) Development Management Policy Increased storm water Drinking water sources requiring additional treatment 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 SD42: Sustainable Drainage. run-off washing sediments to meet existing quality standards in terms of chemical and other contaminants into and biological status. Management Plan Policies 23 & drinking water sources (D) 25: Promoting water efficiency, wastewater management and working with water companies to ensure a sustainable supply. Soil Erosion Warmer wetter Increase in soil erosion on Soil erosion and increased sedimentation and turbidity 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 11 & winters steep scarp slopes and in rivers and surface waters. 24: Promoting sustainable land cultivated land as a result of management. increased surface run-off (D) Chalk Hotter drier Impacts upon rivers, chalk Chalk streams and ponds may dry out due to drought 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 26: streams summers streams and ponds from conditions or experience changes in flow. Restoration of Chalk Streams and and ponds drier seasonal conditions (ID) Rivers. Changes in the chemical and biological status of 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 some water bodies due to reduced flows. Management Plan policy 9, 19 & 24: Natural flood management Greater incidences of algal blooms and concentration 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 and catchment level approaches. of pollutants in rivers and stream due to reduced flows. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD16: Rivers and Watercourses. Increased sedimentation will lead to substantial 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 changes in rates of flow and channel morphologies. Spring lines may disappear or become intermittent in 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 their flow. Impact on spawning ground and fisheries due to 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 drought conditions, temperature changes, decreased flow rates or poor water quality. Winterbournes Hotter drier Impacts upon winterbournes Potential drying up of winterbournes in their upper 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan policy 24: and associated summers and associated wetlands (D) courses with impacts upon their associated wetlands. Catchment level approaches. wetlands Increases in Impacts upon winterbournes Potential for winterbournes to become ‘flashier’ with 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 seasonal rainfall and associated wetlands sudden peaks of flow rate. Floodplains Hotter drier Impacts on wetland habitats Floodplains and grazing marshes may be impacted 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 2, 4 & and grazing summers due to greater incidence of due to increased siltation and drying out. 5: Ecosystem Services, habitat marshes drought (D) connectivity and priority species. Deterioration of wetland habitats due to the impact on 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 their hydrology. Management Plan policy 9, 19 & 24: Natural flood management Warmer wetter Floodplains and grazing Deterioration of wetland habitats due to the impact on 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 and catchment level approaches. winters and marshes may be impacted their hydrology. increases in due to increased flooding Local Plan Strategic Policy SD16: seasonal rainfall and water-logging (D) Rivers and Watercourses.

50 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 51 Natural Environment (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Rivers and Hotter Drier Over-abstraction can cause Low flow rates will have a harmful impact on water 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 26: large water Summers low flows in the summer quality and the ecological status of rivers and their Restoration of Chalk Streams and bodies months which can result in associated wetlands. Rivers. pressures on water supply, Rivers and water bodies are likely to be more sensitive 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan policy 9, 19 & water quality and the to diffuse pollution from agricultural activity, saline 24: Natural flood management ecology of rivers. intrusion in coastal areas, urban and road related run- and catchment level approaches. off and sewage leakage. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD16: Impact upon river ecology, spawning sites and 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Rivers and Watercourses. fisheries.

Increase in The river valleys and flood There is an increased risk of flooding due to increased 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan policy 9, 19 & incidence and plains have lost much of seasonal rainfall and severity of storm events. 24: Natural flood management severity of seasonal their flood storage capacity and catchment level approaches. Increased risk of tidal flooding on tidal sections or 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 storm events through land drainage and rivers and coastal areas due to higher storm surges Local Plan Strategic Policy SD16: conversion for agriculture. and combination of increased volumes of flood water Rivers and Watercourses. and high tide events.

Farming and Forestry – Agriculture, land management, food security, plantation and managed woodland.

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Forestry Increase in Forestry plantations may Loss of trees in commercial plantations from damage 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan incidence and suffer damage due to strong and wind throw caused by seasonal storms. Outcome 2: Adaptive severity of seasonal winds and increased strength capacity in the Landscape Economic impact upon commercial forestry from the 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 storm events of storms (D) to climate change. loss or damage to plantation trees. Management Plan Policy 4 Increase in losses Loss of trees from damage and wind throw caused by 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 & 19: Habitat connectivity, of mature and seasonal storms. woodland creation with veteran trees (D) resilient species. Policy 17 & 18: Access to grant schemes, supporting new planting and economic viability of woodland. Development Management Policy SD46 & 37: Forestry, Trees and Woodlands. Hotter drier Loss of native species that Planting of non-native trees may lead to a decline in 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 Management Plan summers may be more susceptible to native species and composition of woodland Outcome 2: Adaptive drought or water stress (ID) capacity in the Landscape Species that are adapted to, or reliant on, native trees 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 to climate change. may be impacted by shift in their range (ID) Management Plan Policy 4 Opportunity for new species to be planted, increased 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 & 19: Habitat connectivity, viability or yields from commercial forestry. woodland creation with resilient species. Development Management Policy SD37: Trees, Woodlands and Hedgerows.

52 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 53 Farming and Forestry (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Forestry Increase in Forestry plantations may Loss of trees in commercial plantations from damage 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome incidence and suffer damage due to strong and wind throw caused by seasonal storms. 2: Adaptive capacity in the severity of seasonal winds and increased strength Landscape to climate change. Economic impact upon commercial forestry from the 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 storm events of storms (D) loss or damage to plantation trees. Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: Habitat connectivity, woodland Increase in losses Loss of trees from damage and wind throw caused by 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 creation with resilient species. of mature and seasonal storms. veteran trees (D) Policy 17 & 18: Access to grant schemes, supporting new planting and economic viability of woodland. Development Management Policy SD46 & 37: Forestry, Trees and Woodlands. Hotter drier Loss of native species that Planting of non-native trees may lead to a decline in 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome summers may be more susceptible to native species and composition of woodland 2: Adaptive capacity in the drought or water stress (ID) Landscape to climate change. Species that are adapted to, or reliant on, native trees 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 may be impacted by shift in their range (ID) Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: Habitat connectivity, woodland Opportunity for new species to be planted, increased 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 creation with resilient species. viability or yields from commercial forestry. Development Management Policy SD37: Trees, Woodlands and Hedgerows. Warmer wetter Increase in the spread of tree Increase in the loss of trees to disease and impact of 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 8: winters diseases and pathogens (D) pest species on growth and vigour. Control of harmful or invasive Species. Decreased ability of trees and woodland to sequester 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 and lock up carbon. Management Plan Policy 19: Habitat connectivity, woodland creation with resilient species. Improved forest productivity Increased capacity for CO2 sequestration by trees 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 Policy 17 & 18: Access to grant (D) and soils. schemes, supporting new planting and economic viability of woodland. Effects of drought on Tree loss and reduced crop yields due to water stress. 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Policy 17 & 18: Access to grant traditional orchards and schemes, supporting new planting managed or plantation and economic viability woodland (D) of woodland. Increase in woodland Opportunity for an increase in biomass and energy 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 productivity and biomass (D) crop production with fast growing and more climate resilient species.

54 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 55 Farming and Forestry (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Agriculture Hotter drier Higher summer Reduced availability of water supply for livestock 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 11: and crops summers temperatures and increased causing dehydration, heat stress and other animal Incentives and support for land period of drought impacting welfare issues. managers. on livestock farming (D) Need for supplementary water supply for livestock will 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: mean increased capital costs and lower returns. Support for profitable livestock farming and grazing. Sustainable Insufficient water supply to support grazing of remote 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 farming and diversification. or high drought prone areas and associated habitats. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 Reductions in stocking rates due to drought pressure 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 & SD47: Sustaining the rural and impacts upon business viability. economy and farm diversification. Opportunity for increased woodland pasture and 3 +3 +9 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 Policy 17 & 18: Access to grant tree planting to provide shading and support animal schemes, supporting new planting welfare. and economic viability of woodland. Lower summer yields of hay, Increased costs in terms of buying in supplementary 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: silage and fodder crops feeds. Support for profitable livestock during times of drought. farming and grazing. Sustainable farming and diversification. Warmer wetter Increase in pests and Threats to animal health from pests and diseases. 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy 8: winters diseases that may affect Increased costs in terms of preventative treatments Control of harmful or invasive livestock. and vetinerary bills. Species. Increased Waterlogging of land may Reduction in the availability of land suitable for 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy 11: seasonal rainfall increase. grazing. Boggier conditions may cause an increase in Incentives and support for land animal welfare issues. managers. Boggy conditions on river banks and stream sides may 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: be exacerbated by trampling. Support for profitable livestock farming and grazing. Sustainable farming and diversification. Increase in effluent run-off from grazing land may 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan policy 24: impact on rivers, streams and watercourse. Sustainable land management and catchment level approaches. Changes in grazing Reduction on grazing may impact on habitats that 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 12: patterns and stocking require active management such as grazing marshes. Support for profitable livestock rates may change. farming and grazing. Livestock may require more Increased time and costs spent on husbandry, 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27: shelter or be bought under transport and providing shelter. Sustaining the rural economy. cover. Increased damage and loss Impact upon food supply and food security. 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: of crops due to flooding, Support for profitable livestock Financial impact from lower yields or crop loss. 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 water-logging of soils. (D) farming and grazing. Sustainable farming and diversification. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 & SD47: Sustaining the rural economy and farm diversification.

56 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 57 Farming and Forestry (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Increased level and rate of Increased soil erosion on chalk ridges, valley sides 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan policy 9, 19 & surface run-off. (D) and coombes. 24: Natural flood management and catchment level approaches. Risk of enhanced nutrient and sediment delivery to 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 rivers and surface waters. Risk of flooding of properties Loss of livelihood and Increased cost of insurance. 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan policy 9, 19 and and agricultural land within 24: Natural flood management river valleys and low-lying and catchment level approaches. areas (D) Local Plan Strategic Policy SD17: Flood Risk Management. Land Increased summer Reduced precipitation and Need to meet increased water demand from 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policies 2, 23 & Management temperatures increased intensity and groundwater abstraction or on-farm reservoirs. 25: Ecosystem Services, promoting duration of drought may water efficiency and working with Reduction of water availability for crop irrigation. 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 effect supply of water for water companies to ensure a agricultural use (D) sustainable supply. Reduced flows to surface Greater incidences of algal blooms and concentration 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policies 2, 23, waters due to drought and of pollutants in rivers and stream due to reduced 24 & 25: Ecosystem Services, over-abstraction (ID) flows. promoting water efficiency and quality, working with Changes in the chemical and biological status of 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 water companies to ensure a surface waters and impacts on drinking water quality. sustainable supply. Drying out of soils and Extreme cycles of drought and flooding will increase 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Outcome changes in agricultural nutrient run-off and change soil microbial activity. & Policy 1: Conserving and practices (D) enhancing Landscape Character Soil drying and resulting changes in agricultural 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 and resilience to climate change. practices may impact on its ability to sequester carbon. Management Plan Policy 2: Ecosystem Services. Land management Increased tillage and Archaeological assets may experience greater 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy 9 & responses to ploughing of new areas (D) damage and disturbance through increased 10: Protecting and managing the climate change cultivation, tillage and scrub encroachment. historic environment. impacts. Increase in cultivated Impact upon historic landscape character and 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD11: area and removal of field biodiversity. Historic Environment. boundary features (D) Development Management Policy SD41: Archaeology. Increased pest survival Increases in pesticide use could impact upon 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 2: due to changes in climatic pollinators and natural pest regulation. Ecosystem Services. conditions (ID) Local Plan Core Policy SD2: Ecosystem Services Opportunities around the Increase in more sustainable practices such as ‘carbon’ 3 +4 +12 3 +5 +15 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: adoption of new and more farming, long term grass lays and minimal tillage Support for profitable livestock sustainable farming practices systems will have benefits for ecosystem services and farming and grazing. Sustainable biodiversity. farming and diversification.

58 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 59 Farming and Forestry (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Food Land management Increased need for food Uptake of climate resilient crops, trees and livestock 3 +3 +9 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: production responses to production and greater species may offer new commercial opportunities and Support for profitable livestock and security climate change self-sufficiency in food (ID) be more sustainable. farming and grazing. Sustainable impacts. farming and diversification. Improved crop yields. 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 3 +4 +12 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 Improved grassland productivity. 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 3 +4 +12 & SD47: Sustaining the rural economy and farm diversification. Risk of externalising or exporting of food growing to 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: other parts of the globe. Support for profitable livestock farming and grazing. Sustainable farming and diversification. Focus on high value crops such as grapes or lavender 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 that may impact on local food production. & SD47: Sustaining the rural economy and farm diversification. Changes in climatic Opportunity to work innovatively with landowners 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: conditions may see the and farmers to developed adaptive responses that Support for profitable livestock appearance of new crops are sustainable and support productive and profitable farming and grazing. Sustainable or species better adapted to farming. farming and diversification. new growing conditions (ID) Opportunities around developing high precision 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 farming and low tillage techniques that provide & SD47: Sustaining the rural additional ecosystem service benefits. economy and farm diversification. Opportunities for increase in biomass and energy 3 +3 +9 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 2: crop production to generate on farm energy. Ecosystem Services. Management Plan Policy 56: Renewable Energy. Greater intensification of Intensification could lead to further declines in species 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Outcome agricultural practices (ID) diversity. & Policy 1: Conserving and enhancing Landscape Character Impacts upon the landscape character from changes 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 and resilience to climate change. in land management practices, reduced grazing, new crops or intensification. Management Plan Outcome 2: Adaptive capacity in the Increased pressure for developing additional farm 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Landscape. infrastructure such as drying silos or intensive stock systems. Management Plan Policy 2, 4 & 5: Ecosystem Services, habitat connectivity and priority species. Local Plan Strategic Policy 12: Biodiversity.

60 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 61 Community and Economy – Local Economy, community life, community resilience.

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection (D), Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Local Hotter drier Business opportunities driven More opportunities for local and small businesses and 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 41: economy summers by increased visitor numbers a stronger local tourism economy especially food, Maintain visitor enjoyment and and spend within the rural drink and accommodation. increase tourism spend. economy. Management Plan Policy 42: Promotion and marketing of sustainable tourism. Management Plan Policy 43: Support and development of recreation/tourism facilities. Increase in Business and economic Disruption to transport, electricity supply and 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Local Plan Strategic Policy flooding activity in rural areas are telecommunications from flash floods and storms. SD17 & SD57: Flood risk incidences and impacted. management, Telecom services Economic impact on rural businesses of flooding and 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 severity of seasonal and utilities. damage to property. storm events Local Plan Strategic Policy Loss of livelihood and increased cost of insurance. 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 SD27 & SD47: Sustaining the rural economy and farm diversification. Local Hotter drier Business opportunities driven More opportunities for local and small businesses and 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 41: economy summers by increased visitor numbers a stronger local tourism economy especially food, Maintain visitor enjoyment and and spend within the rural drink and accommodation. increase tourism spend. economy. Management Plan Policy 42: Promotion and marketing of sustainable tourism. Management Plan Policy 43: Support and development of recreation/tourism facilities. Increase in Business and economic Disruption to transport, electricity supply and 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD17 flooding activity in rural areas are telecommunications from flash floods and storms. & SD57: Flood risk management, incidences impacted. Telecom services and utilities. Economic impact on rural businesses of flooding and 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 and severity damage to property. Local Plan Strategic Policy of seasonal SD27 & SD47: Sustaining storm events Loss of livelihood and increased cost of insurance. 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 the rural economy and farm diversification. Community Hotter drier Increased exposure to poor Public health risks (respiratory disease and premature 3 -4 -12 4 4 -16 4 4 -16 Local Plan Strategic Policy 14: life and summers air quality and ground level death) from exposure to poor air quality. Green Infrastructure. resilience pollution (ID) Management Plan Policy 2: Increased summer Some vulnerable groups e.g. elderly and infirm are 3 -4 -12 4 4 -16 4 4 -16 Ecosystem Services. temperatures (D) more susceptible to heat stroke or other impacts on Management Plan Policy 29: health. Health & Wellbeing. Increase in average temperatures may increase 3 -4 -12 4 4 -16 4 4 -16 Development Management the range of pests, infectious agents or vectors for Policy SD58: Air Quality. disease. Increase in flooding Impact on local services Increased need for support for some communities, 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan policy 33, incidences and for some smaller and more risk of being cut off or not having access to services 34, 48, 49 & 50: Developing severity of seasonal remote communities (ID) during or after extreme events. volunteering roles, Supporting storm events and enabling balanced Increase in self-reliance within some communities and 2 3 6 3 3 9 4 3 12 communities, access to services. increased social cohesion and community planning.

62 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 63 Landscape – Geology, soils, landform, landscape character, landscape features, land-use and settlements.

Area of Headline Projection Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5

Geology, Hotter drier Drier ground conditions Soils less stable and more prone to erosion, exposure 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -12 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy 2: soils and summers caused by higher summer of bare chalk and other substrates. Ecosystem Services. landform temperatures and Higher temperatures and repeated cycles of drought 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 11 & occurrences of drought. will have an effect on the soils ability to retain/process 24: Promoting sustainable land water and nutrients for plants and habitats. management. Local Plan Core Policy SD2: Ecosystem Services. Warmer Increased saturation Less slope stability and impacts on soil microbial 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 2: wetter winters of the ground and soils. condition. Ecosystem Services. Increased Increased saturation Less slope stability and more transit of soils and 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 4 -16 Management Plan Policy 11 & seasonal rainfall of the ground and soils. sediments into rivers and watercourses. 24: Promoting sustainable land management. Increased turbidity, water contamination and impact 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 5 -20 upon river habitats. Local Plan Core Policy SD2: Ecosystem Services. Increase in Greater vulnerability of Increased sedimentation of rivers and watercourse 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 4 -16 Management Plan Policy 2: incidence substrates and soils to be near to areas of high erosion risk. Ecosystem Services. and severity washed away or subside. Landslides and rock falls become more frequent. 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 4 -16 Management Plan Policy 11 & of seasonal 24: Promoting sustainable land storm events The natural function of flood plains or watercourses 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 4 -16 management. may be affected by increased sedimentation affecting channel morphology and rates of flow. Management Plan & Local Plan Policy 2: Ecosystem Services. Rivers carry increased sediment load and deposit 3 +3 +9 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 more silt onto its floodplain. Potential for improved fertility on gazing marshes. Impact of climate Changes in the extent or Changes in the distinctive form and landscape 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Outcome change on condition of chalk outcrops, character over time. & Policy 1: Conserving and geomorphological cliffs, coombes and dry enhancing Landscape Character process. valleys from changes in and resilience to climate change. natural processes over time. Management Plan & Local Plan Impact on fluvial Changes in the distinctive form and landscape 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Policy 2: Ecosystem Services. geomorphology erosion character over time. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5: rates, drying of river beds Landscape Character. and streams, increased silt deposition from flash floods and storms

64 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 65 Landscape (continued)

Area of Headline Projection Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Landscape Hotter drier Land use change as a Increased drought conditions may result in a 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Outcome character summers result of changing climatic reduction of extensive grazing or arable cropping. & Policy 1: Conserving and and features conditions. enhancing Landscape Character and resilience to climate change. Reversion to natural grasslands or other land use 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 change may introduce new patterns into the Management Plan & Local Plan landscape. Policy 2: Ecosystem Services. Increased woodland planting or cover will have 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome an impact on the visual character and pattern of & Policy 1: Conserving and the landscape. This could impact on wide open or enhancing Landscape Character expansive views from the chalk scarp. and resilience to climate change. Large scale designed landscapes and parkland that 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 4 & 19: contribute to landscape character may see significant Habitat connectivity, woodland changes. Loss of veteran or landscape trees. creation with resilient species. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5 & SD7: Landscape Character and safeguarding views. Warmer Land use change as a Changes in the variety and contrast of the landscape 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Outcome wetter winters result of changing climatic from changed agricultural practices in response to an & Policy 1: Conserving and conditions. extended growing season. enhancing Landscape Character and resilience to climate change. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5 & SD7: Landscape Character and safeguarding views. Seasonal changes and new variation in colours 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Outcome and textures within the landscape may affect & Policy 1: Conserving and its visual character. enhancing Landscape Character and resilience to climate change. Land management Increase in cultivated area Impact upon historic landscape character and 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome responses to and removal of field biodiversity. Loss of field patterns and historic & Policy 1: Conserving and climate change boundary features (D) boundary features. enhancing Landscape Character impacts. and resilience to climate change. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5 & SD7: Landscape Character and safeguarding views. Greater intensification of Impacts upon the landscape character from changes 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 12 & 13: agricultural practices and in land management practices, reduced grazing or Support for profitable livestock changes in land use patterns intensification. farming and grazing. Sustainable (ID) farming and diversification. Changes in levels of grazing due to climatic or socio- 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 economic factors will have an impact on landscape Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 character. & SD47: Sustaining the rural economy and farm diversification.

66 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 67 Landscape (continued)

Area of Headline Projection Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 New or novel crops such as maize, soya, sunflowers 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan & Local Plan may result in a change in the visual character of the Policy 2: Ecosystem Services. landscape. Management Plan Policy 11 Conversion of uncultivated land to agricultural uses, 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 & 24: Promoting sustainable increased field sizes or monoculture may impact on land management. the variety and contrast within the landscape and Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27 change its appearance. & SD47: Sustaining the rural economy and farm diversification. Extensive and open areas of calcareous grassland are 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome a characteristic feature of the South Downs and may & Policy 1: Conserving and be lost. enhancing Landscape Character and resilience to climate change. Changes in land use practices and crops will affect 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 historic landscape character. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5 & SD7: Landscape Character and safeguarding views. Socio-economic impacts Increase in energy or biomass crops, such as 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Outcome upon land management miscanthus, may result in a change in the visual & Policy 1: Conserving and such as increased oil prices, character of the landscape. enhancing Landscape Character drive for food and energy and resilience to climate change. De-intensification of agriculture and abandonment 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 security and changes in of some areas that are no longer economically Management Plan Policy global markets. viable for agricultural use. 13: Sustainable farming and diversification. Management Plan Policy 56: Renewable Energy. Local Plan Development Management Policy SD47: Farm Diversification. Opportunities for enhancing or creating new 2 +3 +6 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Outcome 2 & habitat or rewilding of areas no longer required 3: Increased resilience to climate for agricultural use. change and habitat connectivity. Local Plan Strategic Policy 12 & 13: Biodiversity and protected sites.

68 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 69 Landscape (continued)

Area of Headline Projection Projected Impact Direct (D), Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Land use and Planning or Influence on the type, Potential for long-term change in the style, pattern 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Outcome settlements development style and/or pattern of or location of built development may alter existing & Policy 1: Conserving and responses to development as a mitigation settlement patterns and character. enhancing Landscape Character climate change response to climate and resilience to climate change. Pressure for development on new or undeveloped 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 impacts. change impacts land within the National Park as a result of coastal Local Plan Strategic Policy squeeze, rising sea levels or restriction on land supply. SD6: Design. Local Plan Core Policy SD1: Sustainable Development. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5: Landscape Character. Major infrastructure Impacts on landscape character and on iconic or 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Outcome development as a result distinctive views within and from the National Park. & Policy 1: Conserving and of adaptive responses such Potential effect on expansive views and open skylines enhancing Landscape Character as road, rail, water or power from incongruous features or development. and resilience to climate change. transmission. Introduction of new technology into the landscape 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Local Plan Core Policy SD3 will have an impact on the character and historic feel & SD30: Major Development of the landscape. and Strategic Infrastructure Development. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD5 & SD7: Landscape Character and safeguarding views. Increased use of large scale Potential for positive impact on landscape character 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +5 +20 Management Plan Outcome green infrastructure solutions, and ecosystem function though these assets may still & Policy 1: Conserving and natural flood management change or alter the extant landscape character. enhancing Landscape Character and sustainable drainage and resilience to climate change. systems. Local Plan Strategic Policy 14: Green Infrastructure. Management Plan & Local Plan Policy 2: Ecosystem Services.

70 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 71 Historic Environment – Historic buildings, historic assets, archaeology and historic landscapes.

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection (D), Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Historic Hotter drier Key historic assets may be Historic buildings may be at an increased fire risk due 2 -4 -8 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Local Plan Strategic Policy buildings & summers vulnerable to damage (D) to seasonal changes in climatic conditions. SD31: Climate Change and settlements Sustainable Construction. Increase in pressure for building adaptation 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 and alterations e.g. air conditioning that may Local Plan Strategic Policy be unsympathetic to their built character. SD11: Historic Environment. Impact and potential damage to historic 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 Development Management building materials and contents from Policy SD38: Energy increased ultra-violet radiation. Performance and Historic Buildings. Warmer Key historic assets may be Historic buildings may become more susceptible to 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Local Plan Strategic Policy wetter winters vulnerable to damage (D) decay and damage from damp and higher humidity. SD31: Climate Change and Sustainable Construction. Less weathering or damage to historic buildings from 2 +3 +6 3 +3 +9 4 +3 +12 reduced occurrences of freeze/thawing. Management Plan Policy 9 & 10: Protection of the Increased potential for building adaptation and 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 historic environment and alterations that are unsympathetic to the character management of heritage e.g. double/triple glazing, exterior cladding and assets. external alterations. Local Plan Strategic Policy Historic buildings may have inadequate guttering 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -3 -9 SD11: Historic Environment. or on site drainage resulting in water ingress and structural damage. Development Management Policy SD38: Energy Increase in interior dampness and exposure to mould 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Performance and Historic and environmental problems caused by poorer indoor Buildings. air quality. Development Management Increase risk in infestation from wood boring beetles 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Policy SD39: Conservation and other pest species that can damage or destroy Areas. the fabric of historic buildings. Increased Cultural Heritage assets may Damage and deterioration of heritage assets caused 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy seasonal rainfall be impacted by increased by flooding or waterlogging. 9 & 10: Protection of the rain fall or flooding. historic environment and management of heritage Increase in Damage to historic Damage and deterioration of the protective building 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 assets. incidence and buildings caused by envelope caused by more severe weather conditions. severity of seasonal severe weather conditions. Local Plan Strategic Policy storm events SD11: Historic Environment. Archaeology Hotter drier Reduction in soil Impact upon the integrity of buried archaeology 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan & Local summers moisture content particularly where there may be waterlogged Plan Policy 2: Ecosystem features that are best preserved in situ. Services. Warmer Changes in preservation conditions caused by 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 Management Plan Policy wetter winters higher humidity and soil moisture and PH during 9 & 10: Protection of the the autumn/winter. historic environment and management of heritage Increased Rising water table as a Changes in preservation conditions caused 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 assets. seasonal rainfall result of higher seasonal by fluctuations in the water table may damage rainfall events. archaeological sites or evidence. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD11: Historic Environment. Increase in Damage to buried archaeology from waterlogging or 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 incidence and increased soil erosion from run-off exposing sites or Development Management severity of seasonal damaging stratigraphy, artefacts or evidence. Policy SD41: Archaeology. storm events

72 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 73 Recreation and tourism – Rights of Way, access, visitor and recreational infrastructure, tourism and visitor numbers.

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection (D), Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Rights of Hotter drier Increased risk of wildfires on Some areas of heathland and open access sites are at 3 -3 -9 4 -4 -16 4 -5 -20 Management Plan Policy 28: way and summers some open access areas. increased fire risk at times of drought or dry weather. Improve and maintain the access access network. Warmer Extended growing season More dense vegetation affecting rights of way making 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 wetter winters for plants and trees. them overgrown and impassable in places. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD21: Recreation Increased Tendency for ground to Rights of way and access corridors become difficult to 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 seasonal rainfall become waterlogged or use or impassable due to poor ground conditions or flooded. flooding. Loss of path amenity and more path maintenance 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 required to keep them usable and clear of overgrowth. Damage to paths and other tourist infrastructure, 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 temporary closures or diversions. Increased risk to the public posed by landslip and rock 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 falls especially near cliff and on coastal areas. Increase in Greater incidents of river Bridges and other access infrastructure may be 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Management Plan Policy 28: incidence torrents and flooding. damaged by debris or washed away by river torrents. Improve and maintain the access and severity Access may become restricted. network. of seasonal Damage or loss of use of riverside paths due to 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 Local Plan Strategic Policy SD19: storm events flooding or increased riverbank erosion. Walking, cycling and equestrian routes. Storm damage to wayside trees from strong winds 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 may affect the use or amenity of rights of way. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD21: Recreation.

Tourism and Hotter drier Increase in visitor numbers. More opportunities for local and small businesses and 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 41: recreational summers a stronger local tourism economy especially food, Maintain visitor enjoyment and infrastructure drink and accommodation. increase tourism spend. Benefit to the rural economy from increased number 3 +4 +12 4 +4 +16 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 42: of domestic and UK tourists from more ‘Staycations’ Promotion and marketing of due to better weather. sustainable tourism. Increased number of visitors using the road network 3 -2 -6 4 -3 -12 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Policy 43: could increase road congestion and risk to vulnerable Support and development of recreational users (walker, horse riders and cyclists). recreation/tourism facilities. Honeypot sites and popular visitor attractions may 3 -2 -6 4 -3 -12 4 -3 -12 Management Plan Policy 44: become increasingly crowded with a loss of amenity Support tourism providers to and tranquillity. develop sustainable business practices. Greater demand for more woodland access and 3 +2 +6 4 +3 +12 4 +4 +16 a greater variety of woodland based recreational Local Plan Strategic Policy SD8: activities. Relative Tranquillity. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD20: Sustainable tourism and the visitor economy. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD27: Sustaining the rural economy.

74 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 75 Recreation and tourism (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection (D), Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Warmer Less variation in the Increased winter incomes and greater viability for 3 +3 +9 4 +3 +12 4 +4 +16 Management Plan Policy 41: wetter winters seasonality and potential for tourism businesses away from the core summer Maintain visitor enjoyment and a longer tourism season. season. increase tourism spend. Management Plan Policy 55: Diversification of economic activity. Local Plan Strategic Policy SD20: Sustainable tourism and the visitor economy.

NPA Business continuity – Forward planning or operational impacts, NPA property and estate, staff welfare and practices.

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection (D), Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 NPA Hotter Drier Internal temperature of the Increase risk to health and well-being of NPA 3 -2 -6 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 This is currently monitored Property Summers NPA building stock may staff working in NPA offices and building stock. as part of the NPA risk and Estates exceed comfortable or register. Health and safety Increased energy consumption from fans and other 3 -2 -6 4 -3 -12 4 -4 -16 safe levels. policy in place, H&S advisor air conditioning to manage higher interior building employed. temperatures. Greater capacity for micro-generation of electricity 3 +3 +9 4 +3 +12 4 +4 +16 NPA building stock refitted from NPA building stock through PV and Solar Panels. to BREEAM standard. Solar panels installed and generating electricity. Increased risk of fires for Damage to property and risk to injury and death 2 +3 +6 3 +4 +12 3 +4 +12 Business Continuity Plan NPA building stock. to NPA staff from fire. includes actions in event of loss of building or key staff. Higher exterior temperatures Decline in indoor environmental quality as a result 3 -2 -6 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 This is currently monitored and increased low level of increased air pollution and reduction in adequate as part of the NPA risk ozone formation and building ventilation. register. Health and safety poorer air quality. policy in place, H&S advisor employed. Warmer Internal environment of Deterioration of the buildings integrity, increased 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Health and Safety Policy wetter winters NPA building stock may interior dampness and exposure to mould and other In place. be affected by changing biological contaminants. climatic conditions. Health risks and environmental problems caused 3 -2 -6 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Health and Safety Policy by poorer indoor air quality. in place. Increase in NPA building stock may Damage and deterioration of the protective building 3 -2 -6 3 -4 -12 4 -4 -16 Minimal asset base held incidence be directly affected by envelope caused by more severe weather conditions. reduces impact of risk. and severity extreme weather events and Existing building insurance of seasonal changing climatic conditions. policy includes cover for loss storm events of buildings. Power outages or damage to NPA communication, 3 -2 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Contingency plan included lighting or security systems caused by severe winds, in the current Business lightning or other extreme weather events. Continuity Plan. Risk of flooding due to Direct damage to NPA buildings or assets caused 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 Loss of buildings covered increased occurrence and by flooding. by Business Continuity Plan. severity of weather events (D)

76 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 77 NPA Business continuity (continued)

Area of Headline Projected Impact Direct Risks and Opportunities 2020 (Short Term) 2050 (Medium Term) 2080 (Long Term) Policy Response Impact Projection (D), Indirect (ID) Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Likelihood Impact Risk 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 1 to 5 -5 to 5 Staff Welfare Hotter drier Extreme heat or other Increase risk to health and well-being of NPA 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Risk assessments undertaken Summers climatic conditions may staff engaged in fieldwork. for field work activities. impact ranger staff and Increase in illness and absences due to sickness. 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Health and Safety Policy volunteers working outside. in place. Disruption to work patterns and delays to projects. 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Risk assessments undertaken for field work activities. Longer hours of stronger Risk of sunburn and heat stroke for NPA staff and 2 -3 -6 3 -3 -9 4 -3 -12 Risk assessments undertaken sunlight. volunteers working outside. for field work activities. Guidance given on working in sun and heat. Issued with sunscreen and PPE. Increased need and demand for protective clothing 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Uniform policy and and equipment for changes in working conditions. procedures in place. Suppliers identified for PPE Higher exterior temperatures Health risks to NPA staff from increased exposure 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Risk assessments undertaken and increased low level to poor air quality (respiratory illness and risk of for field work activities. ozone formation and poor premature death). air quality. Poor air quality may present a risk in terms of health of 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 Risk assessments undertaken NPA staff engaged in outdoor activities. for field work activities. Increase in Risk of flooding due to Impact upon NPA staffs ability to travel across the 3 -3 -9 3 -4 -12 3 -4 -12 To be included in revised incidence increased occurrence and National Park at times of extreme weather. Business Continuity Plan. and severity severity of weather events of seasonal (D). storm events

78 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 79 Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned ANNEX 3 – CLIMATE Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Develop design codes that result in more sustainable building and CHANGE ACTION PLAN schemes, with the best design, layout and materials to make Built Environment them resilient to climate change. Incorporate passive solar gain, PV, landscaping, grey water storage and other features. Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Encourage an increase in urban Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe trees to provide ecosystem service Built n Commercial and residential Discourage development within SDNPA, Local Current benefits within towns and villages. Environment properties are at an increased risk floodplains and areas that will Authority Management Promote the value of trees, parks of flooding. become prone to flooding. Seek Partners, Plan and Local and other Green Infrastructure. n Opportunities around the to influence flood management Environment Plan cycle. Encourage the creation of new design and installation of schemes so that they facilitate Agency, Carry Forward habitat and wet woodland along Sustainable Urban Drainage natural functions and deliver a Developers into next streams and rivers to enhance (SUD) and schemes to improve wide range of Ecosystem Service Management connectivity, flood storage, the permeability of urban benefits. Plan cycle help reduce run-off and diffuse surfaces. Develop catchment level 2019 – 2024 pollution. n Additional opportunity for approaches and Natural Flood Air Quality n Opportunity to increase Work to develop a Green SDNPA, Local Current new design codes or sustainable management techniques have resilience of communities Infrastructure (GI) framework for Authority Management building requirements for potential to deliver enhanced through greater use of green the National Park with partner Partners, Plan and Local better housing design to meet flood storage and manage rates of infrastructure within urban planning authorities. Highlight Environment Plan cycle. challenges. run-off. settlements. areas for GI investment in and Agency, Carry Forward n Impact on community Encourage naturally functioning n Higher temperatures and around the National Park. Developers into next resilience and increased risks for floodplains and sustainable urban weaker air circulation leads Promote green corridors, high Management some vulnerable groups. drainage schemes that plan for the to increased low level ozone quality green spaces and street Plan cycle n Fragmentation of responsibility potential changes in flooding as a formation and poorer air quality. trees within the urban environment 2019 – 2024 for flood management makes an result of climate change. n Potential lengthening to improve capacity for regulating integrated approach difficult. Promote the role for Green of the ozone ‘season’ and air quality, providing shade and Infrastructure (GI) and Sustainable concentration of ground level helping to manage the ‘urban heat Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS) ozone, particulates and other air island’ effect at a local level. pollutants. to enhance the resilience of urban Tree planting in appropriate areas. Increased permeability of n Increased exposure to poor locations to help regulate localised urban surfaces and use of rain air quality for residents and air quality and provide wider gardens will help improve storage vulnerable groups causing ecosystem service benefits for and infiltration. Encourage long- impacts on public health people and nature. term management and integration (respiratory illness and risk of with wider catchment level premature death). approaches. Public Water n Increase in the incidence and Opportunity to influence water SDNPA, Water Water Supply severity of drought conditions company’s forward plans and Companies, Company could lead to water shortages. to actively promote sustainable Parish Councils resource n Opportunity to influence water patterns of water use across the and Community Planning Round company’s forward plans and sectors. Groups. (2019 onwards) to actively promote sustainable Work with water companies to patterns of water use across the promote water efficiency measures sectors. and technologies for the public in and around the National Park.

80 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 81 Built Environment (continued)

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Energy n Increased potential for solar Ensure local communities and SDNPA, Local Current Spatial n Restricted availability of land Take a ‘landscape led’ approach SDNPA, Local Current Supply or PV energy production, lower businesses can access benefits Authority Management Planning may result in greater planning to developing the Local Plan Authority Management reliance on the national grid. from delivering carbon storage, Partners, Energy Plan and Local or land use pressure on the document for the National Park Partners, Plan and Local n Landscape Character may renewable energy generation and Companies, Plan cycle. National Park. area. Environment Plan cycle. other low carbon activity. Community Agency, be impacted by changes to the Carry Forward n The undeveloped character Develop strong Development Carry Forward Energy Developers energy infrastructure and new Support opportunities for into next of the South Downs, especially Management policies that seek into next Groups, Parish technology to meet the needs of renewable energy production that Management the open and expansive views to protect and enhance the Management Councils and greater resilience. provide other ecosystem service Plan cycle from the chalk scarps, may be Landscape Character and iconic or Plan cycle Landowners. benefits such as wood fuel or 2019 – 2024 affected. important views within the National 2019 – 2024 growth of bio-fuel crops. Park. Carry Forward into next Promote energy efficiency and Develop effective development Management sustainable building standards management processes that Plan cycle in terms of design, materials deliver high quality Green 2024 – 2029 and site layout. Infrastructure and supports and enhances the delivery of Encourage uptake of micro- Ecosystem Services at local and generation and community based regional level. renewable projects that minimises the impact on the South Downs Work to influence positive Landscape. impact on landscape character and ecosystem function though Sea level rise n Low lying coastal areas and Opportunity for coastal re- SDNPA, Local Current these assets while recognising & coastal settlements at risk from flooding alignment schemes and ‘making Authority Management that landscape character will still squeeze and inundation by the sea. space for water’ to re-establish Partners, Plan and Local change or alter over time. n Loss of low lying land and more natural functioning systems Environment Plan cycle. habitat from coastal squeeze. and to create new habitat. Agency, Natural Carry Forward England, water Increased erosion and Work to restore the hydrological into next companies sedimentation. connection between rivers, open Management and coastal n Enhanced or heavily water and associated wetlands. Plan cycle 2019 communities. engineered coastal flood – 2024 and Develop catchment level defences could further impair 2024 – 2029. approaches and techniques that natural functioning systems and have potential to deliver enhanced cause knock on problems in flood storage and manage rates of other areas of coastline. run-off. n Inundation and flooding from more frequent storms and sea Encourage naturally functioning level rise may damage or disrupt floodplains and sustainable urban water and waste management drainage schemes that plan for the systems. potential changes in flooding as a result of climate change. n Opportunity for coastal re-alignment schemes and ‘making space for water’ to re-establish more natural functioning systems and to create new habitat. n Pressure on the NPA to allow development on areas that are currently protected as adjoining areas are affected by sea level rise.

82 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 83 Natural Environment

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Species n Decline in overall To increase understanding of SDNPA, Natural Current Woodland n Broadleaved and ancient Research which species may be Forestry Current Diversity species diversity. climate change, and its impacts England, Wildlife Management woodland will see changes in most impacted by changes in Commission, Management n Loss of habitats or species due on the priority habitat and Trust, Farmers Plan and Local species type and composition. climatic conditions. Plan ahead Forest Research, Plan and Local to the contraction in extent of species within the South Downs and Landowners. Plan cycle. n Changes in species and in terms of planting species Natural England, Plan cycle. their range or from the change National Park, and what can Carry Forward composition of woodland that may be more resilient to Woodland Trust, Carry Forward in climatic conditions. be done to adapt to changes. into next ground flora. prevailing climatic conditions in Farmers and into next Consider the multi-functional the medium/long term. Landowners. n Increase in range and extent Management n Loss of landscape trees that are Management benefits provided by habitats in of invasive or pest species. Plan cycle more susceptible to increased Encourage and support Plan cycle decision making, 2019 – 2024 temperatures or water stress e.g. appropriate woodland 2019 – 2024 Undertake adaptive management beech management with estates and and 2024 – 2029. and increase the genetic diversity n Damage and loss of landscape woodland owners through and heterogeneity of key species trees to disease and fungal working with woodland partners, on wildlife sites. Promote the bacteria e.g. ash, horse chestnut developing Whole Estate Plans collection and use of appropriate and beech. and other suitable delivery/ seed stock in habitat restoration funding mechanisms. n Opportunity for other tree or the creation of new habitat. species to expand their range. Identify the best carbon storage Increase habitat connectivity and n Loss and damage to mature options for the National Park the permeability of the landscape trees and hedgerows by wind that provide the widest range of to wildlife. Undertake adaptive damage. ecosystem service benefits. management and ensure that n Increase in tree cover and Encourage best practice in terms areas of valuable habitat are related carbon sequestration of bio-security measures to bigger, better managed and and other ecosystem service prevent the spread of diseases joined up. SDNPA to promote benefits from new planting and and pests. delivery at landscape scale. more integrated management of Increase woodland cover where Increase the quality and habitat catchments. the best opportunities exist and diversity of wildlife sites. Deliver improve the management of large scale habitat creation existing woodlands. Create new where opportunities exist, create wet woodland habitat along buffer zones for vulnerable or streams and rivers to enhance fragmented habitats. connectivity, flood storage, Develop a strategy for tackling help reduce run-off and diffuse invasive and non-native species. pollution. Work to reduce their impact and Encourage the adoption of land, spread within the National Park. soils and habitat management practices that enhance the capacity for carbon storage within the National Park. Encourage an increase in urban trees to provide ecosystem service benefits within towns and villages. Promote the value of trees, parks and other Green Infrastructure. Water – n Lower levels of infiltration mean Opportunity to influence water SDNPA, Water Water Aquifer that the aquifer may become company’s forward plans and Companies, Company recharge depleted at times of greater to actively promote sustainable Environment resource demand. patterns of water use across the Agency, Parish Planning Round n Problem may be exacerbated sectors. Councils and (2019 onwards) Community by an increased demand for Work with water companies Groups. abstraction during the summer to promote water efficiency months. measures for the public in and around the National Park.

84 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 85 Natural Environment (continued)

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Surface and n Failure of water bodies and Encourage good soil and land SDNPA, Water Current Hedgerows n Decline in species diversity Promote the benefits of SDNPA, Natural Current groundwater ground water to meet existing management practices that Companies, Management and loss of resources to wildlife. hedgerows and encourage England, Wildlife Management quality standards in terms of maintain and improve water Environment Plan and Local n Loss of key species due best practice in terms of their Trust, Farmers Plan and Local chemical and biological status. infiltration and reduces water Agency, Natural Plan cycle. to drought stress. management. Improve habitat and Landowners. Plan cycle. n run-off and diffuse pollution. England, Farmers connectivity, help retain soils, Localise or regional effects on Carry Forward n Decrease in the overall Carry Forward and Landowners. manage surface run-off and water supplies may require water Maintain flows to streams and into next ecological connectivity of into next increase the permeability of the companies to review their supply rivers so that good chemical Management the wider landscape. Management plans. Plan cycle landscape to wildlife. Plan cycle and environmental status is n Loss of historic character 2019 – 2024 2019 – 2024. n Impact upon the National maintained. within the landscape. Develop and use positive Park area from additional water and 2024 – planning and DM policies that Create buffer strips around infrastructure such as pipelines 2029. retain hedgerows and encourage source protection zones and reservoirs. Water new planting on development and water courses to reduce Company sites to deliver multiple n Failure of water bodies and excessive nutrient and sediment resource ecosystem service benefits. ground water to meet existing input into water bodies. Planning Round quality standards in terms of Work to influence positive Promote catchment level (2019 onwards) chemical and biological status. impact on landscape character approaches and examine n Increased need for treatment and ecosystem function though potential for natural flood storage of drinking water to meet existing these assets while recognising and habitat creation which quality standards. that landscape character will still reduces pollution run-off during change or alter over time. n Disruption to water and waste extreme weather events. water systems may require Chalk n Species rich chalk grassland Target project funding and SDNPA, Natural Current changes in infrastructure to deal Promote uptake of high precision or low-input farming techniques grassland may see changes in species environmental grant funding England, Wildlife Management with the risks to ecosystem or composition and declines in towards measures that increase Trust, Farmers Plan and Local public health. so that the application of nitrate fertilisers does not result in excess overall species diversity. resilience to a changing climate, and Landowners. Plan cycle. n Threats to ecosystem and nutrients passing into the aquifers n Loss of condition of support biodiversity and provide Carry Forward public health from pollution and at key times of recharge designated sites or priority wider Ecosystem Service benefits. into next microbial contamination of water. (autumn/winter) habitats may occur. Encourage land management Management n Increased costs for ensuring n Plan cycle Encourage conservation Species migration and loss practices that support pollinators. quality and safety of the public of small or isolated patches of Use of natural pest controls or 2019 – 2024 water supply measures such as contour and 2024 – ploughing, buffer strips, habitat will affect their resilience. pest resistant crop species to n Increased incidence and 2029. improving soil structure or n Fragmentation of some habitat reduce the need for severity of flooding could changes in land management types such as chalk and other pesticide use. overwhelm or damage existing such as transition from arable unimproved grassland will limit Increase habitat connectivity and water and drainage infrastructure. to long-term grass lays or their adaptive capacity. the permeability of the landscape n Drinking water sources cover crops. to wildlife. Undertake adaptive requiring additional treatment to management and ensure that meet existing quality standards in In high risk areas promote shift from arable to long-term grass areas of valuable habitat are terms of chemical and biological bigger, better managed and status. lays. Encourage measures that retain soils in situ such as contour joined up. Increase the quality n Soil erosion and increased ploughing, minimum or ‘no and habitat diversity of wildlife sedimentation and turbidity in tillage’. Promote the use of green sites. rivers and surface waters. manures and cover crops. Work with partners to address Develop schemes that test water supply issues for chalk the principle of ‘Payments for grassland sites where they may Ecosystem Services’ in relation be a barrier to grazing due to providing natural flood to climate change impacts. management and managing Consider alternative grazing water flows. strategies such as more resilient or alternative gazing animals.

86 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 87 Natural Environment (continued)

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Chalk n Chalk Streams and ponds may Develop a tailored ‘chalk streams’ SDNPA, Water Current Floodplains n Floodplains and grazing Work to restore the hydrological SDNPA, Water Current streams dry out due to drought conditions project to protect and enhance Companies, Management and grazing marshes may be impacted due to connection between rivers, open Companies, Management and ponds or experience changes in flow. their headwaters and improve their Environment Plan and Local marshes increased siltation and drying out. water and associated wetlands. Environment Plan and Local chemical and biological status. Agency, Natural Plan cycle. Agency, Natural Plan cycle. n Changes in the chemical and n Deterioration of wetland Develop catchment level England, Farmers England, Farmers biological status of some water Encourage good soil and land Carry Forward habitats due to the impact on approaches Carry Forward and Landowners. and Landowners. bodies due to reduced flows. management practices that into next their hydrology. and techniques that have into next n Greater incidences of algal maintain and improve water Management n Climate change impacts potential to deliver enhanced Management blooms and concentration of infiltration and reduces water run- Plan cycle such as wetter winters and flood storage and manage rates Plan cycle pollutants in rivers and stream due off and diffuse pollution. 2019 – 2024. deterioration of ground of run-off. 2019 – 2024. to reduced flows. Chalk Streams conditions may cause issues with Work at a Landscape and Encourage naturally functioning Project planned the sustainability of stock grazing n Increased sedimentation will Catchment scale to deliver floodplains and sustainable urban for 2017 – lead to substantial changes in effective environmental drainage schemes that plan for 2020. rates of flow outcomes, allow for climate the potential changes in flooding and channel morphologies. change adaptation and improve as a result of climate change. n Spring lines may disappear or ecosystem service function. Create habitat and wet woodland become intermittent in their flow. Encourage tree and woodland along streams and rivers to n Potential drying up of planting along stream and river enhance connectivity, flood winterbournes in their upper corridors to help shade and storage, help reduce run-off and courses with impacts upon their control river temperatures. Work to diffuse pollution associated wetlands. establish more natural rates Heathland n Increased levels of fire risk Natural England informs NPA on SDNPA, Natural Current of flow and channel morphologies habitat on Heathland areas. fire risk. NPA to lead on training England, Wildlife Management to make them more resilient to with FC on fire risk on heathland Trust, Community Plan and Local climate change impacts. n Potential for increased competition from invasive sites and agree procedures. Groups, Farmers Plan cycle. Rivers and n The rivers are a major source Work with water sector partners SDNPA, Water Current and non-native species. Action taken forward through the and Landowners. Heathlands larger water of water abstraction for domestic to avoid over-abstraction of Companies, Management Heathlands Re-united project. Re-united HLF bodies and commercial uses. Over- rivers within the National Park. Environment Plan and Local Heathland Re-united project funded project abstraction can cause low flows Maintain good levels of base Agency, Natural Plan cycle. work to actively manage 2016 – 2019. in the summer months which can flow to maintain the chemical and England, Farmers Carry Forward heathland sites and deal with result in pressures on water supply ecological status of their waters. and Landowners. into next invasive and non-native species. and water quality. This threatens The river valleys can provide much Management Invasive species strategy for the natural resources and wildlife needed flood storage capacity Plan cycle the NPA also covers the of the river and their associated where more natural water flows 2019 – 2024 Heathland sites. wetlands. are maintained. Develop schemes and 2024 – n Rivers and water bodies are that improve the flood storage 2029. sensitive to diffuse pollution from capacity on flood plains and Water agricultural activity, saline intrusion wetland habitats. Company in coastal areas, urban and road resource Improve the morphology of the related run-off and sewage Planning Round main rivers to improve their natural leakage. (2019 onwards) resilience to flooding and the n The river valleys and flood function of the tidal rivers and plains have lost much of their estuaries to help flow surface flood storage capacity through water downstream and out to sea. land drainage and conversion for agriculture. There is an increased Create habitat and wet woodland risk of flooding due to increased along streams and rivers to seasonal rainfall and severity of enhance connectivity, flood storm events. storage, help reduce run-off and n Increased risk of tidal flooding diffuse pollution. on tidal sections or rivers and coastal areas due to higher storm surges and combination of increased volumes of flood water and high tide events.

88 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 89 Farming and Forestry

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Forestry n Loss of trees in commercial Research on which tree species SDNPA, Forestry Current Agriculture n Reduced availability of water Support for farmers in terms SDNPA, Water Current plantations from damage and may be most impacted by Commission, Management and crops supply for livestock causing of diversification to new crops Companies, Management wind throw caused by seasonal changes in climatic conditions. Forest Research, Plan and Local dehydration, heat stress and and livestock breeds that may Environment Plan and Local storms. Plan ahead in terms of planting Natural England, Plan cycle. other animal welfare issues. be more resilient to changing Agency, Plan cycle. species that may be more Woodland Trust, climatic conditions. Research n Economic impact upon Carry Forward n Need for supplementary water Carry Forward resilient to prevailing climatic Farmers and Organisations, commercial forestry from the loss into next supply for livestock will mean Move towards more drought into next conditions in the medium Landowners. Farmers and or damage to plantation trees. Management increased capital costs and lower tolerant varieties of arable crops Management /long term. Landowners. Plan cycle 2019 returns. to reduce the need for irrigation. Plan cycle n Loss of trees from damage and Encourage best practice – 2024 and 2019 – 2024 wind throw caused by seasonal n Insufficient water supply to Use of natural pest controls woodland management 2024 – 2029. and 2024 – storms. support grazing of remote or or pest resistant crop techniques to adapt to 2029. high drought prone areas and species to reduce the n Planting of non-native trees changing climatic conditions. associated habitats. need for pesticide use. Water may lead to a decline in native Encourage woodland Company species and composition of n Reductions in stocking rates Encourage sustainable land management that provides the resource woodland. due to drought pressure and management that protect the best range of ecosystem service Planning Round impacts upon business viability. environmental assets n Species that are adapted to, benefits including enhancing (2019 onwards) and ecosystem services of or reliant on, native trees may be biodiversity, natural flood n Opportunity for increased the South Downs while impacted by shift in their range management, air quality, carbon woodland pasture and tree maintaining the profitability (ID) sequestration and renewable planting to provide shading and of farming. energy potential. support animal welfare. n Opportunity for new species to Encourage adaptation responses be planted, increased viability or Promote the benefits of n Increase in effluent run-off and land use practices that yields from commercial forestry. wood pasture, in-field and from grazing land may impact on support or benefit the special boundary trees. rivers, streams and watercourse. n Increased in the loss of trees qualities of the National Park. to disease and impact of pest Work with forestry partners land n Reduction on grazing may species on growth and vigour. managers to increase woodland impact on habitats that cover and enhance the require active management n Decreased ability of trees and capacity for carbon storage and such as grazing marshes. woodland to sequester and lock sequestration at landscape scale. up carbon. n Impact upon food supply and food security. n Increased capacity for CO2 sequestration by trees and soils. n Financial impact from lower yields or crop loss. n Tree loss and reduced crop yields due to water stress. n Risk of enhanced nutrient and sediment delivery to rivers and surface waters.

90 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 91 Farming and Forestry (continued)

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Land n Need to meet increased water Maintain good soil structure and SDNPA, Water Current Food n Uptake of climate resilient Support for farmers in terms SDNPA, Water Current Management demand from groundwater condition by maintaining high Companies, Management production crops, trees and livestock species of diversification to new crops Companies, Management abstraction or on-farm reservoirs. organic matter levels to help Environment Plan and Local and security may offer new commercial and livestock breeds that may Environment Plan and Local retain water and nutrients in the Agency, Natural Plan cycle. opportunities and be more be more resilient to changing Agency, Natural Plan cycle. n Greater incidences of algal soil and reduce run-off. Ensure England, sustainable. climatic conditions. England, blooms and concentration of Work with Work with good vegetation cover and avoid Research Research pollutants in rivers and stream developing n Risk of externalising or Move towards more drought developing over-grazing. Organisations, Organisations, due to reduced flows. farming clusters exporting of food growing to tolerant varieties of arable crops farming clusters Farmers and Farmers and Promote uptake of high precision within the other parts of the globe. to reduce the need for irrigation. within the n Changes in the chemical and Landowners. Landowners. or low-input farming techniques National Park National Park biological status of surface waters n Focus on high value crops such Encourage sustainable land so that the application of nitrate area. 2016 – area. 2016 – and impacts on drinking water as grapes or lavender that may management that protect fertilisers does not result in 2019. 2019. quality. impact on local food production. the environmental assets and excess nutrients passing into the Carry Forward ecosystem services of the South Carry Forward n Extreme cycles of drought and aquifers at key times of recharge n Opportunity to work into next Downs while maintaining the into next flooding will increase nutrient (autumn/winter). innovatively with landowners and Management profitability of farming. Management run-off and change soil microbial farmers to developed adaptive Encourage conservation Plan cycle 2019 Plan cycle 2019 activity. responses that are sustainable Encourage adaptation responses measures such as contour – 2024 and – 2024 and and support productive and and land use practices that n Soil drying and resulting ploughing, buffer strips, 2024 – 2029. 2024 – 2029. profitable farming. support or benefit the special changes in agricultural practices improving soil structure or qualities of the National Park. may impact on its ability to changes in land management n Opportunities around sequester carbon. such as transition from arable developing high precision Research and monitoring of to long-term grass lays or cover farming and low tillage climate change impacts and n Increases in pesticide use crops. techniques that provide trends. Develop research could impact upon pollinators additional ecosystem service agenda and links with national and natural pest regulation. Improve adaptive capacity benefits. level research bodies such as through the use of buffer strips, n Increase in more sustainable LWEC, EKN, NERC and CEH. cover crops, contour ploughing n Increase in land take for practices such as ‘carbon’ Development of case studies to retain the soil in situ. growing energy crops. farming, long term grass lays and based in the South Downs. minimal tillage systems will have In high risk areas promote shift n Intensification could lead benefits for ecosystem services from arable to long-term grass to further declines in species and biodiversity. lays. Encourage measures that diversity. retain soils in situ such as contour n Impacts upon the landscape ploughing, minimum or ‘no character from changes in tillage’. Promote the use of green land management practices, manures and cover crops. reduced grazing, new crops or intensification.

92 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 93 Community and Economy

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Community n Public health risks (respiratory Research needed to increase our Local Authorities, Current Landscape n Reversion to natural grasslands Take a ‘landscape led’ approach SDNPA, Forestry Current life and disease and premature death) understanding of climate change, health service Management character or other land use change may to developing the Local Plan Commission, Management resilience from exposure to poor air quality. and its impacts on community providers, Plan and Local and features introduce new patterns into the document for the National Park Forest Research, Plan and Local resilience. Universities and Plan cycle. landscape. area. Natural England, Plan cycle. n Some vulnerable groups e.g. research partners. Woodland Trust, elderly and infirm are more Encourage the development of Carry Forward n Increased woodland planting Develop strong Development Review of Farmers and susceptible to heat stroke or Neighbourhood Plan documents into next or cover will have an impact Management policies that seek Landscape Landowners. other impacts on health. that consider the future risks Management on the visual character and to protect and enhance the Character associated with climate change Plan cycle 2019 pattern of the landscape. This Landscape Character and iconic Assessment n Increase in average and consider what can be done – 2024 and could impact on wide open or or important views within the and Landscape temperatures may increase the to adapt or develop resilience. 2024 – 2029. expansive views from the chalk National Park. Strategy range of pests, infectious agents scarp. planned for or vectors for disease. Opportunity to extend the scope Work to influence positive 2016 – 2017. of volunteer capacity within n Large scale designed impact on landscape character n Disruption to transport, Parishes and local groups to landscapes and parkland and ecosystem function though Carry Forward electricity supply and enhance community resilience to that contribute to landscape these assets while recognising into next telecommunications from flash potential climate change impacts. character may see significant that landscape character will still Management floods and storms. changes. Loss of veteran or change or alter over time. Plan cycle 2019 landscape trees. – 2024 and Potential areas of research 2024 – 2029. n Impact upon historic landscape include the impact of land use character and biodiversity. Loss change such as shift away from Landscape, Geology and Landform of field patterns and historic Arable to other crop types. boundary features. Case for woodland carbon and Natural Flood Management n Impacts upon the landscape in lowland areas. Viability of character from changes in land Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned different farming systems etc. Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe management practices, reduced grazing or intensification. Geology, n Higher temperatures and Maintain good soil structure and SDNPA, Natural Current n soils and repeated cycles of drought will condition by maintaining high England, Wildlife Management Changes in levels of grazing landform have an effect on the soils ability organic matter levels to help Trust, Farmers Plan and Local due to climatic or socio- to retain/process water and retain water and nutrients in the and Landowners. Plan cycle. economic factors will have an nutrients for plants and habitats. soil and reduce run-off. Ensure impact on landscape character. Carry Forward good vegetation cover and avoid n n Less slope stability and impacts into next Conversion of uncultivated over-grazing. on soil microbial condition. Management land to agricultural uses, Encourage land management Plan cycle 2019 increased field sizes or n Less slope stability and more practices that maintain the – 2024 and monoculture may impact on transit of soils and sediments into structural and microbial condition 2024 – 2029. the variety and contrast within rivers and watercourses. of soils and maximise its ability to the landscape and change its n Increased turbidity, water store water and nutrients. appearance. contamination and impact n Promote soil conservation Extensive and open areas upon river habitats. measures especially in areas that of calcareous grassland are a n Increased sedimentation of are prone to erosion or may be characteristic feature of the rivers and watercourse near to more susceptible to drought South Downs and may be lost. areas of erosion. Landslides and conditions. rock falls become more frequent. n Rivers carry increased sediment load and deposit more silt onto its floodplain. Potential for improved fertility on gazing marshes.

94 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 95 Landscape, Geology and Landform (continued) Recreation and Tourism

Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe Rights of way n Some areas of heathland Work with partners and SDNPA, Current Land use and n Potential for long-term change Take a ‘landscape led’ approach SDNPA, Local Current and public and open access sites are at recreation interest groups Highways Management settlements in the style, pattern or location to developing the Local Plan Authority Management access. increased fire risk at times of to manage and promote Authorities, Local Plan and Local of built development may alter document for the National Park Partners, Natural Plan and Local drought or dry weather. recreational access and to Access Forums Plan cycle. existing settlement patterns and area. England, Utility Plan cycle. provide a greater variety of and Recreational character. Companies, n Bridges and other access Carry Forward Develop strong Development Review of recreational activities. Interest Groups. Developers, infrastructure may be damaged into next n Pressure for development on Management policies that seek Landscape Landowners by debris or washed away Management new or undeveloped land within to protect and enhance the Character and Farmers. by river torrents. Access may Plan cycle 2019 the National Park as a result of Landscape Character and iconic Assessment become restricted. – 2024 and coastal squeeze or restriction on or important views within the and Landscape n Damage or loss of use of 2024 – 2029. land supply. National Park. Strategy riverside paths due to flooding or planned for n Impacts on landscape Work to influence positive increased riverbank erosion. 2016 – 2017. character and on iconic or impact on landscape character n Storm damage to wayside trees distinctive views within and from and ecosystem function though Carry Forward from strong winds may affect the the National Park. Potential these assets while recognising into next use or amenity of rights of way. effect on expansive views and that landscape character will still Management open skylines from incongruous change or alter over time. Plan cycle 2019 Tourism and n More opportunities for local Other themed approaches to NPA lead. Current features or development. – 2024 and recreational and small businesses and a promoting off-season visits and Potential partners Management 2024 – 2029. infrastructure stronger local tourism economy activities. Creation of welcome National Plan and Local n Introduction of new especially food, drink and pack for off-season visits. Trust, RSPB, Plan cycle. technology into the landscape accommodation. Promote opportunities for Accommodation Sustainable will have an impact on the n Benefit to the rural economy local and small businesses and and visitor service tourism strategy character and historic feel of the from increased number of help develop a stronger local providers, Food prepared 2016. landscape. and hospitality domestic and UK tourists from tourism economy especially in Carry Forward providers. n Potential for positive impact more ‘Staycations’ due to better the sectors of food, drink and into next on landscape character and weather. accommodation. Management ecosystem function though these n Greater demand for more Ensure that the potential benefits Plan cycle 2019 assets may still change or alter woodland access and a greater to the rural economy from – 2024 and the extant landscape character. variety of woodland based increased number of domestic 2024 – 2029. recreational activities. and UK tourists with greater n Less variation in the seasonality viability for tourism businesses Historic Environment and potential for a longer tourism away from the core summer season. Opportunity to help season. Area of Projected risk Ambition/ Lead Partner/ Planned develop a stronger local tourism Avoid intrusive development Impact or opportunity Planned Action Partnership Timeframe economy with greater viability for that will impact on areas of Historic n Damage and deterioration of Improve data and evidence on SDNPA, Historic Current tourism businesses away from the high tranquillity. Work with Environment heritage assets caused by the climate change impacts England, HERs Management core summer season. constituent local authorities to and flooding or waterlogging. upon designated heritage assets and Heritage Plan and Local manage and lessen the impacts Archaeology n Changes in preservation across the National Park. Use this Groups. Plan cycle. of light pollution and retain areas conditions caused by fluctuations data to develop solutions that Review of of dark night skies. Promote in the water table may damage enhance the resilience of historic Historic opportunities for off-season or archaeological sites or evidence. assets and help protect them for Landscape winter tourism through ‘Dark the future. Skies’ Reserve status. n Damage to buried archaeology Characterisation from waterlogging or increased underway. soil erosion from run-off Development exposing sites or damaging of Cultural stratigraphy, artefacts or Heritage evidence. Strategy in 2016. Carry Forward into next Management Plan cycle 2019 – 2024 and 2024 – 2029.

96 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 97 ANNEX 4 – CURRENT POLICY RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE WITHIN THE PARTNERSHIP MANAGEMENT PLAN (PMP)

PMP Outcomes Local Plan Strategic Policies PMP Policies Policy 24: Support and promote river catchment approaches that integrate sustainable land management, Outcome 1: The landscape character of the National Park, A summary of how these policy responses map to key Policy 1: Conserve and enhance the natural beauty and its special qualities and local distinctiveness have been climate change risks and opportunities is presented fully special qualities of the landscape and it’s setting, in ways wildlife conservation, surface and groundwater quality and conserved and enhanced by effectively managing land in Annex 2 – Assessment of the principal climate change that allow it to continue to evolve and become more flood risk management. and the negative impacts of development and risks and opportunities. resilient to the impacts of climate change and other Policy 25: Actively promote water efficiency measures and cumulative change. pressures. more sustainable patterns of domestic, industrial, farming and leisure water use, to reduce overall water use. Outcome 2: There is increased capacity within the Policy 2: develop landscape-scale partnerships and landscape for its natural resources, habitats and species initiatives to focus on enhancing the key ecosystem Policy 35: Promote and enhance integrated travel to adapt to the impacts of climate change and other services delivered by the National Park. provisioon from rail stations located at gateways and within pressures. the National Park for pedestrian, cyclist and bus travel. Policy 4: Create more, bigger, better managed and Outcome 3: A well-managed and better connected connected areas of habitat in and around the National Policy 36: Improve exisiting public transport provision for network of habitats and increased population and Park, which deliver multiple benefits for people and visitors and local communities, especially increasing the distribution of priority species now existing in the National wildlife. availaibility of Sunday and evening bus and train services. Park. Policy 6: Favour natural functions and processes in and Policy 37 : Encourage cyciling for both commuting and Outcome 8: More responsibility and action is taken by around the National Park where they support the value leisure purposes through the development and promotion visitors, residents and businesses to conserve and enhance and resilience of terrestrial, freshwater, marine, coastal and of a seamless and safer network and by protecting the special qualities and use resources more wisely. estuarine habitats. the potential opportunities for future off-road cycling infrastructure. Outcome 9: Communities and businesses in the National Policy 7: Actively promote more joined-up and sustainable Park are more sustainable with an appropriate provision management of the coast, including the defined area Policy 38: Work in partnership with key partners, of housing to meet local needs and improved access to of heritage coast, through Integrated Coastal Zone businesses and organisations to reduce car travel across essential services and facilities. Management (ICZM) the National Park. Outcome 10: A diverse and sustainable economy has Policy 19: Enhance the landscape, habitat connectivity, Policy 42: Develop and consistent and co-ordinated developed which provides a range of business and carbon storage and flood risk management with woodland approach to the promotion and marketing of the South employment opportunities, many of which are positively creation by natural regeneration or tree planting with Downs National Park as a sustainable visitor destination. linked with the special qualities of the National Park. appropriate species, on an appropriate scale and in Encourage and support tourism providers suitable locations. Policy 44: to develop sustainable business practices and increase Policy 23: Improve the sustainability of water resources knowledge about the National Park’s special qualities to and wastewater management through partnership working provide a distinctive and high-quality visitor experience. across the water sector.

98 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 99 ANNEX 5 – BIBLIOGRAPHY

Using Thermal Lidar to identify trees Natural England (2013)’ Assessing HM Government (2013) ‘The under drought and disease stress – the potential consequences of National Adaptation Programme: www.thermolidar.com climate change for England’s Making the country resilient to a landscapes: the South Downs changing climate’; Defra. Morecroft, M. and Speakman, National Park’; Natural England L (eds.) (2013) ‘Terrestrial Biodiversity HM Government (2013) ‘The General Publication Climate Change Impacts Summary National Adaptation Programme: Report’; Living With Environmental Natural England (2014) ‘National Analytical Annex – Economics Change. biodiversity climate change of the National Adaptation vulnerability model’; NE Programme’ ; Defra. Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2013) England Natural England (2011) Natural England and RSPB (2014) Biodiversity Strategy: Climate ‘Commissioned Report: ‘Climate change adaptation Change Adaptation Principles Adapting Conservation to manual’; Natural England General – Conserving biodiversity in a a Changing Climate’ Publication (NE546). changing climate; Defra Natural England General Lancaster Environment Centre Department of Environment, Food Publication (NECR081). (2013) ‘Review of National Park and Rural Affairs (2013) Adaptation Climate Change mitigation policies Natural England (2012) ‘Natural Reporting Power: Voluntary and strategies’; Small World England’s climate change risk Guidance to New Reporting Consulting. assessment and adaptation Authorities on how to Produce plan’; Natural England General UKCIP (2013). The UKCIP an Adaptation Report; Defra Publication (CR318). Adaptation Wizard v 4.0. UKCIP, Met Office, Hadley Centre (2014) Oxford Natural England (2012) ‘Natural www.ukcip.org.uk/wizard ‘Too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry: England’s climate change risk Drivers and impacts of seasonal assessment: Annexes’; Natural weather in the UK March’; England General Publication Met Office (CR318). European Environment Agency Climate UK (2012) ‘A Summary of (2012) ‘Summary Report: Climate Climate Change Risks for South change, impacts and vulnerability East England’, Climate South East. in Europe 2012’; EEA Met Office (2012) ‘The UK Climate Environment Agency (2014) Change Risk Assessment 2012: ‘Evidence briefing: IPPC report Evidence Report’, Defra. on climate change impacts and adaptation, EA Met Office (2012) ‘The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012: Social Research Institute (2014) Evidence Report Annex A & Annex ‘Preparing for the worst or hoping B’, Defra. for the best? British priorities on Climate Change adaptation’; UK Climate Change Risk Ipsos MORI Assessment (2012) ‘Summary of the Key Findings from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment’; Defra.

100 South Downs National Park