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Análise De Empresas Sabesp

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Análise De Empresas Sabesp 09 de dezembro Análise de Empresas Sabesp COMPORTAMENTO DAS PRINCIPAIS BOLSAS E se a Sabesp for privatizada baseado na RECOMENDAÇÃO Sabesp ON aprovação do Novo Marco Regulatório de SBSP3 NEUTRO Saneamento? PREÇO-ALVO UPSIDE 67,00 14,63% • O Marco de Saneamento está perto de ser votado pela Câmara dos Deputados; a aprovação final do Senado é muito provável no início de 2020 (com uma pequena chance de isso acontecer em 2019). Sabesp ON • O texto final do projeto ainda não é conhecido (o Senado tem a última Preço (R$) 58,45 palavra), mas parece certo que permitirá a privatização dos serviços de Valor de Merc. (R$M) 39.951 saneamento. Preço Mín./Máx. 52 sem. (R$) 27,43 - 59,4 • Dado que o governo de SP está pensando em vender a Sabesp, quanto Vol. Méd. Diário 3 meses (R$ M) 146,0 ela vale se privatizada? O valor justo atual da das nossas estimativas é de R$ 78/ação. Como uma estatal? Estimamos R$ 51/ação. • Mantemos nossa recomendação Neutra e, considerando que a Projeções 19E 20E privatização em breve estará “oficialmente” sob debate, implementamos EBITDA (M) 5.911 6.254 um Preço-alvo ponderado por probabilidade, de R$ 67,00/ação para P/L 12,8 17,9 2020, com ponderações de 50%/30%/20% para os cenários Estatal/Privatizada/Capitalização. EV/EBITDA 8,6 8,2 Div. Yield 1,8% 1,3% No acumulado do ano, o SBSP3 superou (+85%) o Ibov. (+26%) com uma probabilidade crescente de que o novo Marco do Saneamento seja votada pelo Congresso, juntamente com as sinalizações do estado de SP sobre o plano de vender a Sabesp. O projeto de lei, que visa melhorar os serviços de saneamento básico do Brasil, destravando o investimento do setor privado e permitindo a privatização de empresas estatais de saneamento, está próximo de uma votação na Câmara dos Deputados e, em seguida, passará pela aprovação final do Senado provavelmente no início de 2020. O Marco de Saneamento tem uma chance boa de ser aprovado no congresso. As negociações para votar o projeto aparentemente incluem pequenas mudanças, como estender para 30 meses (a partir dos atuais 12) o período em que as empresas estatais terão permissão para assinar novos contratos Francisco Navarrete* Ricardo França diretamente com os municípios após a aprovação da lei (sem um processo de * Analista de valores mobiliários credenciado responsável pelas licitação pública). Embora isso atrase um cenário totalmente competitivo para declarações nos termos do Art. 21 da ICVM 598/18 os players privados, o escopo para as empresas estatais continuarem assinando novos contratos será limitado: (i) qualquer novo contrato precisará incluir planos de investimento e metas de cobertura de serviço completo alcançadas até 2033; e (ii) as empresas estatais terão que provar sua capacidade financeira para executar novos investimentos. Também é igualmente importante que o artigo que poderia acelerar a privatização seja mantido, o que é positivo para a tese de privatização da... Este relatório é uma versão em português do relatório institucional divulgado pelo Banco Bradesco BBI em 06/12/2019. Análise de Empresas 09/12/2019 Sabesp (ou seja, se os contratos de serviços existentes não forem alterados, o Estado não precisará procurar a aprovação dos municípios para manter os contratos em vigor em caso de mudança de controle). Qual é a nossa visão da disposição do governo do estado de SP de vender a Sabesp? Embora seja sempre difícil prever um evento como esse, as autoridades parecem muito mais alinhadas a favor da privatização em comparação com 6-12 meses atrás. O ponto de interrogação para o cenário de privatização parece ser que pode levar de 2 a 3 anos e, portanto, estará próximo das próximas eleições presidenciais / do governo estadual no final de 2022, que é sempre um período "volátil" que pode atrasar ou até atrapalhar o processo. Enquanto mantemos nossa recomendação Neutra, dada a iminente aprovação da lei, queremos estar prontos para responder: quanto vale a Sabesp como Estatal? Nesse cenário, o valor justo atual é de aproximadamente R$ 51/ação. E como uma empresa privada? Nesse cenário, nosso valor preço-alvo é de R$ 78, implicando um EV/RAB de 1,40x para 2019, que está bem abaixo dos aproximados 2,0x para distribuidoras privadas de energia. Assumimos uma menor taxa de desconto real de de 6,0% (vs. 8,0% para estatal) e que a administração privada reduziria o custo operacional em -20% a -25% a partir de 2021 (após a revisão tarifária). Análise de Empresas 09/12/2019 RESEARCH ÁGORA José Francisco Cataldo Ferreira Maria Clara W. F. Negrão CNPI - Estrategista de Análise - Pessoas Físicas CNPI - Analista de Investimentos Ricardo Faria França Maria Beatriz Cattucci Pimenta CNPI - Analista de Investimentos Assistente de Análise Maurício A. Camargo Luiza M. Tanus e Bastos CNPI-T - Analista Gráfico Assistente de Análise Flávia Andrade Meireles DIRETOR RESPONSÁVEL Assistente de Análise Luis Claudio de Freitas Coelho Pereira Região Metropolitana (RJ e SP) Demais Regiões do Brasil Ligações Internacionais 4004 8282 0800 724 8282 +55 21 2529 0810 Disclaimer Este relatório foi preparado pelas equipes de análise de investimentos da Ágora Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S. A. (“Ágora”) bem como da Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários (“Bradesco Corretora”), sociedades controladas pelo Banco Bradesco BBI S.A. (“BBI”). O presente relatório se destina ao uso exclusivo do destinatário, não podendo ser, no to do ou em parte, copiado, reproduzido ou distribuído a qualquer pessoa sem a expressa autorização da Ágora e da Bradesco Corretora. Este relatório é distribuído somente com o objetivo de prover informações e não representa uma oferta de compra e venda ou so licitação de compra e venda de qualquer instrumento financeiro. As informações contidas neste relatório são consideradas confiáveis na data de sua publicação. Entretanto, as informações aqui contidas não representam por parte da Ágora ou da Bradesco Correto ra garantia de exatidão dos dados factuais utilizados. As opiniões, estimativas, projeções e premissas relevantes contidas neste relatório são baseadas em julgamento do(s) analista(s) de investimento envolvido(s) na sua elaboração (“analistas de investimento”) e são, portanto, sujeitas a modificações sem aviso prévio em decorrência de alterações nas condições de mercado. Declarações dos analistas de investimento envolvidos na elaboração deste relatório nos termos do art. 21 da Instrução CVM 598/18: O(s) analista(s) de investimento declara(m) que as opiniões contidas neste relatório refletem exclusivamente suas opiniões pessoais sobre a companhia e seus valores mobiliários e foram elaboradas de forma independente e autônoma, inclusive em relação à Ágora, à Bradesco Corretora, ao BBI e demais empresas do Grupo Bradesco. A remuneração do(s) analista(s) de investimento está, direta ou indiretamente, influenciada pelo resultado proveniente dos negócios e operações financeiras realizadas pela Ágora, Bradesco Corre tora e BBI. Declarações nos termos do art. 22 da Instrução CVM 598/18, referentes às empresas cobertas pelos analistas de investimento da Ágora e Bradesco Corretora: O Banco Bradesco S.A. tem participação acionária indireta, por meio de suas subsidiárias, acima de 5% nas empresas Cielo S.A. e Fleury S.A.. A BRADESPAR S.A., cujo grupo controlador é composto pelos mesmos acionistas que controlam o Bradesco, tem participação acima de 5% na VALE S.A.. Ágora, Bradesco Corretora, Bradesco BBI e demais empresas do grupo Bradesco têm interesses financeiros e comerciais relevantes em relação ao emissor ou aos valores mobiliários objeto de análise. O Bradesco BBI está participando como coordenador na oferta pública de distribuição de Aliansce Sonae Shopping Centers S.A., Fleury S.A., JBS S.A., Marfrig Global Foods S.A., Marisa Lojas S.A., Notre Dame Intermédica Participações S.A. e Unidas S.A. Nos últimos 12 meses, o Bradesco BBI participou como coordenador nas ofertas públicas de distribuição de títulos e valores mobiliários das companhia e/ou prestou serviços de outra natureza para as seguintes empresas: AES Tiete Energia S.A., Atacadão S.A., B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão., Banco BTG Pactual S.A., Banco Inter S.A.; BRF S.A., C&A Modas S.A., Cesp - Companhia Energética De São Paulo, Cielo S.A., Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição, Companhia De Locação Das Américas, CPFL Energia S.A., Cyrela Commercial Properties S.A. Empreendimentos e Participaçõ es., Eletropaulo Metropolitana Eletricidade De São Paulo S.A., Energisa S.A., Engie Brasil Energia S.A., Estacio Participações S.A., Gol Linhas Aéreas Intel igentes S.A., Grupo SBF S.A., Guararapes Confecções S.A.,Hapvida Participações e Investimentos S.A., Helbor Empreendimentos S.A., Instituto Hermes Pardini S.A., Iochpe Maxion S.A., IRB Brasil Resseguros S/A, JHSF Participações S.A., JSL S.A., Kroton Educacional S.A., Light Serviços De Eletricidade S.A., Localiza Rent a Car S.A., LOG Commercial Properties e Participações S.A., LPS Brasil - Consultoria de Imóveis S.A., Magazine Luiza S.A., Minerva S.A., Movida Participações S.A., Multiplan Empreendimento Imobiliário S.A., Natura Cosméticos S.A., Notre Dame Intermédica Participações S.A., Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., Raia Drogasil S.A., Randon S.A. Implementos e Participações., Rumo S.A., São Carlos Empreendimentos e Participações S.A., Suzano S.A., Trisul S.A., e Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas gerais S.A, - Usiminas. Nos últimos 12 meses, a Ágora e/ou a Bradesco Corretora participaram, como instituições intermediárias, das ofertas públicas de títulos e valores mobiliários das companh ias: Banco do Brasil S.A., Banco Inter S.A., BR Properties S.A., C&A Modas S.A., Camil Alimentos S.A., CSHG Logística - Fundo De Investimento Imobiliário - FII, CSHG Real Estate - Fundo De Investimento Imobiliário - FII, Companhia de Sanemanto Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP., Companhia De Transmissão De Energia Elétrica Paulista (CTEEP), Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A.
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