Japanese Migration in Contemporary Japan: Economic Segmentation and Interprefectural Migration
Hiroshi Fukurai
Board of Studies in Sociology . ~ -. . __ :.:;:-. .- University of California ~ --~~~--~~:·~.::~: ;~~--~:::::.- Santa Cruz, California .-.:: -. <· .. -::: : :::; .. :":>."·:: __ : : .·.· .-- : ~ = . ---~---·__ -- . -·. ABSTRACT: This paper examines the economic segmentation model in explaining 1985-86 Japanese interregional migration. The· analysis takes advantage of statistical graphic techniques to illustrate the following substantive issues of interregional migration: (1) to examine whether economic segmentation significantly influences Japanese regional migration and (2) to explain socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures for both in- and out-migration. Analytic techniques include a latent structural equation (LISREL) methodology and statistical residual mapping. The residual dispersion patterns, for instance, suggest the extent to which socioeconomic and geopolitical variables explain migration differences by showing unique ·..:. clusters of unexplained residuals. The analysis further points out that extraneous factors such as high residential land values, significant commuting populations, and regional-specific cultures and traditions need to be incorporated in the economic segmentation model in order to assess the extent of the model's reliability in explaining the pattern of interprefectural migration. This paper examines two theories of migration is held to be an important way regional migration patterns in Japan: ( 1) by which workers respond to changing the economic opportunity thesis and (2) economic opportunities and thereby re the economic segmentation-model. The direct the spatial allocation of labor to economic opportunity thesis argues that ward an optimal pattern (Kono and factors such as employment opportuni- Shio, 1965; Kuroda, 1977; Lowry, 1966; . ·. _. ties and salaries are major determinants Ogawa and Hodge, 1986; Rogers, of migration. The economic opportunity 1968). The economic opportunity thesis explanation of interregional migration thus shifts the analytical scope onto pull . - •.-r';-:> :.r: :.:;-• •. ~· : • further argues that human capital fac factors and assumes that rural-urban mi : . ·,·.- - ... -: .:.···-.- ~- ·.· ~. . . tors such as socioeconomic origins, edu gration is primarily caused by higher . -·· cational investments, and employment paying jobs and greater economic op opportunities of residents generate dif portunities in urban sectors. ferences in migration patterns (Fukurai The economic segmentation thesis, et al., 1987; Hill et al., 1985; Mundlak, on the other hand, contains two compo 1979; Newman, 1985) and that human nents.' First, microsocial factors (i.e., capital factors intertwined with eco- opportunities, salaries, and human capi nomic opportunities in receiving regions tal factors) do not determine the pattern or destinations are the major determi of internal migration but, rather, a dual nants of regional mobility (Clark, 1986; economy based on differential organiza Dennis, 1984; Featherman and Hauser, tional development is the major deter 1978; O'Reilly, 1981). Thus, internal minant of migration. By creating both -~ -: -~ ~~:~;;:;_~;~ -~--::;¢·.:. ~~ ~~------28 :~~~~!=::~:: .. -_:~~~~i_:_ ·.-_:}:_~:--~-~· :.~ -:: -:~~·-~==\-~---:- ·- Vol 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 29,
the labor market and economic oppor destination. The existence of an unlim tunities, laborers are spatially allocated ited labor supply suggests that the initia to meet the changing economic organi tion of migration flows depends almost zational structure (Baron and Bielby, exclusively on labor demand in receiv 1980; Fukurai et al., 1987; Holden, ing states. For example, Lowry's (1964) 1973; White, 1982). Second, the model analysis of migration flows used a log points out the importance of analyzing transformed regression model with the •. structural factors that affect urban exo number of migrants from ito j as the de dus as well, i.e., organizational develop pendent variable. As independent vari ment, job availability, and the distribu ables, Lowry used airline distance from i tion of occupational reward structures. (an origin state) to j (a destination In general, the explanation of regional state), for both origin and destination, migration patterns analyzes how the in percentage of population in the nonagri trusion and penetration of modem eco culturallabor force, and manufacturing
. . ~· ·.·· ·. nomic relations into the countryside wage rate. Rogers (1968) modified the triggers waves of rural migrants to re Lowry model by altering the labor force, ceiving states in spite of the fact that unemployment, and distance variables. there may be few opportunities in urban The results for migration flows between areas (such as jobs and housing) (Cas SMSA's in California showed that mi
. ·. ·~·~·. ::> tells, 1975, 1983; Danesh, 1987; Hen gration is particularly related to a high derson and Castells, 1987). 1 The theo wage ratio at destination and a large ci retical tenets of the economic vilian labor force at either origin or des opportunity and economic segmenta tination and negatively related to high tion theses are explored more fully in wages at origin and distance between i the next sections. andj. Those early studies paved the way for migration analysis of many geographical BACKGROUND units utilizing a variety of techniques. EcoNOMIC OPPORTUNITY THEsis Out of a large body of research, four studies on Japan are relevant to the The economic opportunity thesis em present research (Hanley and Yama phasizes the gap in wage incentives be mura, 1977; Mosk, 1983; Taeuber, tween sending and receiving regions and 1958; Vogel, 1967). assumes an unlimited supply of labor Although he did not specifically em which is based on the existence of a per ploy the economic opportunity thesis, manent, large differential in favor of Taeuber (1958) set the groundwork for .. . . research on interprefectural migration 1The economic segmentation model is theoret by analyzing Japanese census informa ically advanced to explicate social mobility and the tion between 1920 and 1957. He argued stratification system from the perspective of orga that the major determinant of rural exo \-' nizational structures and the dual economic sector thesis (Kalleberg and Griffin, 1980; Kalleberg et dus is "the economic opportunities in al., 1981; Tolbert et al., 1980; Weakliem, 1990; the industrial areas" (Taeuber, 1958, p. Zucker and Rosenstein, 1981). For example, Kal leberg et al. (1981) incorporate the dual economic 132). For instance, in 1930, fifteen pre theory (core and periphery sectors of different or dominantly agricultural prefectures ganizations) and dual labor-market theory (pri "had lost more than one-fifth of their mary and secondary labor markets) in order to ex native-born men. These prefectures of .. plain mobility patterns in the United States. :;~-~;:;~~);·~~~~~~~~t~-~=~=:~:;~~~~:~ -:~~'5-~::.;::;~~\tJ:~~-"~~=r~::~;: .~:=-:::::-:-~=-=~:~:: •.. _::·.-.·~: .. ~.~-:~ ~)~- . ·= ::- .. .:· --· . -~· .. --- ...
·- J - .. - -- ·: -.- . -.--. - •.-.· -- .:'-.- ~- .· ...- . 30 Fulrurai Social. Biology .. ---.
major emigration were intermediate in The economic opportunity thesis is industrial structures" (p. 132). Taeuber also used to explain interregional migra further observed that after World War tion in preindustrial Japan, specifically IT, as Japanese industries were restored between 1600 and 1868. Hanley and and cities reconstructed, the internal mi Yamamura (1977) argued that eco gratory movements normal to other in nomic opportunities were the major de dustrializing societies reappeared-net terminant of interregional migration be exodus from agricultural areas and net fore the Meiji Restoration (1868), the influx into industrial regions. His analy dawn of Japan's modem industrializa ... ·- - ... -... sis showed that internal migration from tion. For instance, while migratio~ be 1947 to 1957 was much greater than the nyeen different, politically-defined re migratory move by Japanese settlers gions was difficult, migration was a into Manchuria at the beginning of the significant method of shifting popula war in China. Again, the main force be tion, and political boundaries did not hind the.rural exodus and urban influx constitute a real obstacle for persons was economic opportunities in indus who wished to migrate (p. 252). Hanley trial prefectures (pp. 144--47). and-Yamamura's (1977) analytical con Vogel (1967) also presented similar tribution on Japanese interregional mi perspectives on the explanation of J apa gration came from the conceptual dis nese interprefectural migration. He tinction between permanent and ... ·. '. - ..... pointed out that prior to 1950, in addi temporary migration. Temporary mi tion to economic opportunities in urban gration took the form of individual emi . -- · .... cities, the landlord in rural regions gration in that unmarried men and played an important role in spatially al women typically left their villages to locating Japanese rural migrants. Vogel work in nearby areas. The modal age argued that the success of placing young groups of hokonin (apprentices) of both
. _.. ·... workers in cities depended on the assist sexes were in the 15-30 age group (p. · ....· .-:.:-::. ance from the landlords and their close 254). Also, it was not unusual for heads relationship to potential employers in of families to leave home by themselves cities who were expected to give on-the to work outside their villages in the form job training to young men with good of dekasegi (working away from home). general intelligence, reliable character, Permanent migration of families, how and most importantly, a special connec ever, tended to be limited to moves to ... ·- --.. ,.. -.· tion with the employer's friends or rela areas being claimed or to larger towns ... ::-.: --~-- - :-::~- . -. . - tives so the employer could be assured and cities, where some families worked ... ~ of the employee's willingness to work in samurai households and/or where it long hours without high wages (p. 95). was easier for illegal migrants to escape Vogel argued that the land ownership, detection. Theoretically, for a village close kinship networks among peasants resident to move to a city, two require- in rural areas, and increased employ ment opportunities in urban cities persons and customs (Dare, I967a, pp. 126-27). played a crucial role in influencing J apa Thus, migration was actually controlled by social nese rural exodus.2 groups in villages: Those who want urban jobs must use traditional mediating agencies and the continuing responsibility of rural sponsors for new employees' behaviors and continuous heavy in- 2Connections established prior to migration migration even into demographic net-loss prefec- enabled new urbanites to find jobs and lodging tures indicated the persistence of powerful ties to --W:itlroruyminllnal.hardshtp orcunrm::twithstrange-- thecou:ntryside{Voger;I963;-p:258): -- - -- ~;~ ..... -··~ . ·- -·-:-· _: .:. Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 31
ments had to be met: The person had to urban regions. When such demand ex be poor and without land; and he had to ists, migration takes place. Thus, the ec be unable to undertake hard farm labor onomic opportunity thesis de (p. 253). The research pointed out that emphasizes push factors to focus on the ., because of different levels of economic pull exerted by receiving economies . prosperity and increased opportunities . EcONOMIC SEGMENTATION THESIS . :· .. among villages, reverse migration from cities to rural villages was not unusual There has been a paucity of research (p. 254). For instance, when opportuni examining the relationship between or ties existed in noncommercial, rural ar ganizational growth· and interregional eas, large cities like Osaka experienced migration. One of the problems lies in a decline in the popclation as the eco the prevalent trend in which studies :. ,. ~ .. nomic fortunes of Osaka began to ebb. limit themselves to the influence of eco Hanley and Yamamura noted that nomic infrastructures on migration "while Osaka's population grew from rather than systematically examining
-~ ..... -.-. 279,000 to 501,000 between 1625 and other pertinent factors. 1743, it began to fall .... A steady de The economic segmentation theory cline in population continued from the rejects the general assumption of an ec mid-eighteenth century" (p. 106). onomic opportunity thesis that rural Most (1983) examined Japanese mi urban migration is caused primarily by gration patterns in the post-industrial higher paying jobs and employment op era, specifically between 1880 and 1960. portunities in urban sectors or in desti High fertility ratios and patriarchal and nations. It argues that the impact of dif .· . .. ._.;:::.. extended family structures in rural areas ferential income between rural and created the structural condition for urban sectors on migration is nPniffial greater rural exodus, and the industrial because, despite higher per capita in expansion and increased economic op come in the cities, rural migrants are portunities in urban regions helped ab faced with a higher cost of production sorb unskilled laborers from the pre and reproduction. The significantly dominantly agricultural rural regions. higher cost of consumption in urban ar Mosk's analysis also pointed out that the eas than in rural areas is mainly caused -·.- . . .. rural exodus was due to a large manu by the demands of the urban economy
... -. :. -__ .. facturing wage differential. The wage (Finkelman, 1989; Henderson and Cas - - - ... .· ·.- -.--- .. gap played a significant role in determin tells, 1987; Portes and Bach, 1985). For --· .-.- -: ~~:..: ::-- -· .. ing the overall level of daily remunera instance, in rural areas where there is no tion in industrial prefectures where the spatial segregation between the place of contraction of the female-male wage dif residence and place of work, there is no ferential was observed (pp. 208-9). He need for public or private transporta contended that economic and employ tion. But in cities one has to add the cost ment opportunities in industrial prefec of transportation to the overall domestic tures were major factors in promoting budget (Danesh, 1987). rural-to-urban interprefectural migra The analysis of interregional migra tion. tion from an economic segmentation Past research thus suggests that inter perspective suggests that the organiza
· .. regional migration depends substan tional growth and changes in the struc - . . -~- -:> ,' i . . . __.:... ·-. ·.:-·· -- .... -. _.. -. __ -. tially upon labor demands and eco ture of industry and agriculture lead to '~f!'#~ sr~:~c; nomic opportunities in receiving and the development of service and tertiary . -;:-_~:---:_ ..-:·-- --- ·•--E~?;~:~·i£::~:~:~~~J;i:~~:~:(!: 32 Fukurai Social Biology ,. ~~-g_._.__ .. . -, :· _--- :-- - ...
sectors in urban regions. The growth of and commercialization. This control is service sectors then affects the structure far more extensive among post of the occupational reward system and industrial firms, i.e., the emergence of creates interregional income inequality oligapolies into primary and secondary (Baron and Bielby, 1980; Fukurai et economies (Krooth and Fukurai, 1990). al., 1987). The observed disorganization The primary sector of the economy is and breakdown of agrarian society is formed by large monopolistic enter primarily due to (1) population growth prises characterized by bureaucratiza as a consequence of the rise in life ex tion of the production process and the -_ -~·::·-;.::::;--:~~~-.::::<--~ <:0-:- -- .. >- pectancy, (2) lack of accessibility to creation of an internal market in that oli . ·- ~-. .... ·.· :·.· -:---· . .. :-~:::f··~;:-~:::.-:_·_~_--::~~-:..-- .. income-generating lands and their dis gapolistic corporations are able to ad .. ·:-;·._.· ••r•• tribution, and (3) the interplay between .• minister an internal labor market be those two exponents (Castells, 1983; cause of their size advantage, higher Portes and Bach, 1985). Thus, the wages, greater fringe benefits, and more greater exchange between rural and ur desirable working conditions (Baron ban regions under the condition of high and Bielby, 1980; Fukurai et al., 1987; population growth and unproductive Krooth and Fukurai, 1990; Portes and land tenure leads to a high rural exodus Bach, 1985; Smith, 1983). A secondary (Connell et al., 1976; Danesh, 1987). sector of the economy comprises smaller :---··· .. Also the greater differential productiv competitive firms and resembles struc ity between rural and urban areas leads tural conditions during the early phase to a greater level of migration from less of industrial capitalism. Such firms oper productive to more productive sectors ate in an environment of considerable and vice versa. economic uncertainty (Baron and A meaningful analysis of interre Bielby, 1980; Magnum et al., 1985). En gional migration, according to the eco terprises in this economic sector do not nomic segmentation perspective, arises have an internal labor market. Wages when organizational structures and la are lower than in the primary sector and bor market characteristics have simulta interregional migrants are considered as neously been taken into considerl;ltion. a preferred labor force used against the Since an economic opportunity thesis organizatiqnal efforts of the domestic focuses primarily on urban economic minority work force to accept present factors (or pull) and income inequality conditions and to discourage workers' between urban and rural regions affect efforts to improve them (Donoghue, ing interregional migration, it is of great 1978; Wagatsuma and DeVos, 1984).3 importance that both organizational and labor market characteristics in relation 3The internal labor market in Japan assumes to socioeconomic conditions are system- that the technique employed by the finn is such that employees' skills are formed and transmitted atically examined. on the job and in a team context. For instance, in order to motivate employers and employees to DUAL LABOR MARKETS share the costs of investment in such team- oriented human capital, seniority-related benefits The theoretical tenet of the economic to employees in the form of seniority wages, retire segmentation thesis is based on the as- ment compensation, and the like have been devel oped as devices to retain highly trained workers in sumption of a dual labor market. That the firms. Without such contrivances, employees is, the generation of an oligapolistic seg- might quit in the middle of their careers, causing the value of the human capital accumulated within ...... _ ID_ellL_b.y__ w.hi~b__ ~Q_y~m:::~c:l-~~O_Il.QID_~~ --thefum-tO-be-lostpermanentLy-(Yamamuraand ...... _ __ control different facets of production Yasuba, 1987) . . .- - :.:_~:;-~ ~--=.:_:~ __ ::.:~-:::::-: -~ :.:-:-:-:-:.:·:-~:.·:-:·-·- :--:.;:::::~::-~ ----- ·.-.- Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 33
In Japan, the firms in the secondary still increasing today. The majority of economic sector often rely on the labor the migratory workers are, however, supply from minority groups. For exam employed in politically weak and less or ple, the Burakumin, Okinawans, Kore ganized secondary economic sectors and .. ans, and Chinese are still discriminated these foreign migrants are used to un against in housing and employment. dercut domestic workers who are them There are 1.2 million Burakumin, 1.2 selves politically weak, frequently unor million Okinawans, 678,000 Koreans, ganized, and employed by the most and 84,000 Chinese currently living in backward corporations (Krooth and Fu: Japan (Buraku Liberation Research In kurai, 1990; Statistics Bureau, 1990).5 stitute, 1988; Statistics Bureau, 1990).4 The development of a dual economy Their chances of employment in the is also closely related to the proliferation firms in primary economic sectors are of service/tertiary occupations. These virtually nonexistent because of the low level "jobs" are most likely to be
·~- .·. :: . . ·- . ~·· .. strong ideological emphasis on ethnic filled by interregional migrants because homogeneity and cultural conformity of the competitive nature of secondary ·.. (Buraku Liberation Research Institute, segments of economy and a lack oflabor :...... ·,· 1988; Cho, 1987; De Vos and Wagat skills by the migrants. As demonstrated suma, 1966; Krooth and Fukurai, 1990; by Japanese minority groups and for Wagatsuma and DeVos, 1984). For ex eign workers, migrant laborers have lit .. ·- ample, the major enterprises in primary tle collective bargaining power and the .·.. · .· economic sectors do not hire the Bura availability of a potential labor replace . ·.. _ .. .. :-:· ...... ·: kumin as permanent lifetime employ ment encourages exploitation of un .. ..-. . . ees. The Burakumin are therefore skilled and cheap labor. blocked from achieving economic secu Meanwhile, the primary oligapolistic --.· .. - rity and occupational mobility. As an corporation further develops the com example of the social discrimination plex structure of internal labor markets . -·- . . . .. ·. . . ~. . . . against the Burakumin, prospective em in which migrant labor is not crucial for ployers often hire detectives to trace the operation. Oligapolistic labor in a pri lineage of potential employees to ensure mary sector is invulnerable to the com that they are not Burakumin (DeVos, petition of new migrant workers and 1973; Donoghue, 1978). may actually profit from their existence. In addition to the Burakumin and Competitive labor, on the other hand, is ethnic minorities, there are different pitted against new workers and is fre groups, such as the Filipinos, who mi quently replaced by them (Gordon et grated to Japan and found their primary al., 1982; Smith, 1983; Weakliem, employment in secondary economic 1990). sectors. For example, between 1980 and Job opening ratios for firms in both 1986, the number of Filipino migrant primary· and secondary economic sec workers tripled, rising from 5,547 to tors between 1985 and 1987 further ac 18,897 workers, and their numbers are centuate the growing polarization of a dual economy in Japan. The statistics
4'Jbe majority of the residents of Korean de scent are not Japanese citizens, even though more 5During the same period, the increase of other than 80 per cent of the current total Korean minor: foreign groups was lower than that of Filipinos. ity population was born in Japan. The majority of For example, there.were 22,401 U.S. nationals in these born-in-Japan Koreans are second, third, 1980 and 30,695 in 1986, an increase of 37 per cent and fourth generations (Cho, 1987). (Statistics Bureau, 1986). -·. .·.•·· . ·. -· - -:<-. . <~~-...: . : ·--=~~-~::-~:_::~ :. .:£;..:~_: :~:=:-~~;;:. -_- Social Biology .: ~~~=~=: ~~~~- :~?~ ~ :..:. :. ~ 34 Fukurai
show that the primary economic sector regions in which the tertiary sector is pri only employs a small portion of J apa marily unorganized and mainly consists nese workers (less than 3 per cent) and of small and petty commerce and un there are unequal distributions of orga skilled and temporary labor-a dis nizational resources among different guised form of unemployment and un prefectures.6 The growing polarization deremployment . of a dual economy then intensifies struc . The main thrust of the remainder of tural differences between the primary this paper is two-fold: (1) to provide a and secondary segments of the economy causal model of Japanese interregional .. , .. _. ::: ~- . . ___..;.,: ~: : ~- . .. · and perpetuates income inequality be migration based on the economic seg -.~~::_:!::~:·---. _:: __ ·-::--·· -·-· tween oligapolistic economic laborers mentation thesis, and (2) to examine :.--. - ·.·.· and ~econdary migrant laborers in the critically the empirical model of the eco prefecture. Once the dual economy is nomic segmentation thesis in explaining well established, income inequality then Japanese interprefectural migration. .. . . ; ::.. . ·. -~ _::. prevails, not only at the destination, but also at the origin of migrant workers, es .... :_.,., MATERIALS AND METHODS . -.. - ~ .. _..... ;~~ ... ·'·~ . -:_ -~.··. pecially in rural areas. Unequal distribu tion of the monetary reward structure Japanese census data for 1985-86 are then further promotes interregional mi utilized to examine the relationship gration. among the development of economic The economic segmentation theory segmentation, labor markets, and in thus provides a different set of theoreti come inequality, and how the latter af cal explanations. Economic sectors pave fect interprefectural migration. The unit the path by which migratory labors are of analysis is a prefecture. Japan has 47 spatially allocated to meet the changing prefectures and nine regions over four organizational structure at destination different major islands: Hokkaido, or urban regions. Once interprefectural Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. migration prevails, a growing polariza A problem in studying regional or in tion between the two economic seg tranational variations in migration and ments is observed, not only at receiving, economic opportunities in the U.nited urban areas, but also at origin or rural States or other industrialized nations is regions. A similar trend is expected in the question of the extent to which such labor market segmentation. Once in rates are influenced by legal rather than terprefectural migration has taken socioeconomic variables. That is, the place, the gap between primary and sec employment opportunities, reward sys ·--: .·- ondary labor markets widens at urban tems, and migratory movements in age ographic area may be influenced by its legal system as well as its social condi 6Their prospective employees are mostly uni tions .. For example, in the United versity graduates and comprised of the ethnic ma States, regional and state variations in jority (Krooth and Fukurai, 1990; Small and Me dium Enterprises Agency, 1988). It is also interstate migration may be influenced important to note that the actual polarization of a by the fact that some states have less dual economy could have been much greater than stringent tax laws than others. what was reported by the Statistics Bureau in 1990. This is due to the fact that part-time job openings Japan, however, provides a uniquely and the extent of underemployment conditions in advantageous setting for the analysis of .. :- ~ the Japanese labor force were not included in the ...... analysis...... - . migr-~tion. Prefectures, egt!iya.I~Il! to ~~}~~~ ~: ~ ;~ -:~:: ~~=~ ~-~: ~:f =~ ~:==~~~ ~- :. Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 35. -:-- ·-:- :-:.. :- ---.:_:_- ..
state units in the United States or prov to provide an additional reference point inces in Canada, enjoy social and eco for the evaluation of the economic seg nomic diversity, while the legal system mentation model. 7 dealing with tax laws is relatively uni A hierarchical model-testing strategy form. While the legal system in Japan is (Bentler and Bonett, 1980) is also used centralized and uniform, prefectural to derive a final model that not only fits units continue to maintain a high degree the data well but fits the data better than of social and economic heterogeneity. do-alternative models. The models spe We can therefore eliminate the possibil cified using this procedure· should be ity that the different legal systems and nested, signifying that a more restricted :::>-< - -r.--- --=(· .-.. '!: ·<; their enforcement cause variability in in model contains parameters to be esti .-. - :·-:··. : ~ :. =--=.--:-_· .. ;~ terregional migration patterns. mated that are a subset of those con In assessing the application of the ec tained in a less restricted model. Such a onomic segmentation model to analyze strategy is designed to derive a final :.· ¥·- ·... -· --·· Japanese interprefectural migration, we model that adequately reproduces the : ~ . . ... - take advantage of the recent develop covariance matrix with a minimum ment of covariance structures and number of parameter estimates. Thus, LISREL maximum-likelihood estima chi-square difference tests are used in a tions and examine the overall goodness hierarchical evaluation strategy to ex of-fit test of the segmentation model. By amine the difference in fit of models esti fitting the model to actual observed data mated using the maximum-likelihood we systematically examine the economic estimation method (Bollen, 1989, p. segmentation thesis. 263). A significant chi-square difference The likelihood-ratio, chi-square sta test value indicates that a less restricted
·. ·:: tistic, and the likelihood-ratio indices model explains a significantly greater (delta and rho), are employed in com amount of covariation among measures paring fits in order to control for sample than does a more restricted model. size (Bentler and Bonett, 1980; Bollen, 1989, pp. 271-76). While failure tore VARIABLES ject the null hypothesis may be taken as The migration pattern is represented -.:.'•_ an indication that the model is consis by the two variables, in- and out- tent with the data, it is important to bear in mind that alternative models may also be consistent with the data (Joreskog andSorbom, 1985).~oreover,because the chi-square test is affected by sample 7Two indices, delta and rho, are calculated in size, it follows that {1) given a suf the following equations. ficiently large sample, an over-identified delta = __Chi-square..:...___;_.;____ (null) -Chi-square_ __;_ _ _;,_ (model)__ model may be rejected even when it fits Chi-square (null) the data well; and (2) when the sample Chi-square Chi-square size is small, one may fail to reject the (null) (model) null hypothesis even when the model fits df(null) df(model) rho the data poorly {Long, 1983; ~atsueda Chi-square (null) 1.0 and Bielby, 1986). Therefore, a general df(null) null model based on modified indepen For further reference, see Bentler and Bonett
. .:...... dence among variables is also proposed (1980) . ·:.- ---~~ ..,-:. 36 Fukurai Social Biology
migrants at a prefectural level (see Fig are closely related to interprefectural ure 1 for spatial distributions of J apa migration. The largest employee size for nese interprefectural migration). These both wholesale/retail outlets and finan two variables represent overall migra ciaVinsurance firms is found in the tion activities in the region and are mea Kanto region, where Tokyo is located. ' sured by the percentage of both in- and Indicators of labor-market character out-migrants to the total population. istics are designed to reflect employ Past research often relied on the analysis ment opportunities and regional labor .. of net migration patterns, the metric dif force participation. The selected varia ~ ~ t':' • •· ference between in- and out-migration, bles include: (1) the per cent of econom --- · ... ·.. _ -- - to show the intensity of interregional mi ically active male laborers in the labor gration. However, recent studies show force, (2) the percentage of labor force that different regions have varying lev in tertiary sectors (i.e., service and sup els of in- and out-migration and the dif port industries), and (3) job opening ra ferent clustering patterns for in- and tio, i.e., the number of available jobs in out-migration streams (Fukurai and Al the prefecture divided by the economi ston, 1990; Fukurai et al., 1988). Re cally active population. search further points out that the use of Regional income inequality is also in net-migration can be misleading since cluded in the model and assumed to ... -· such an analysis pays little attention to have a positive relation with interre the difference between in-migration and gional migration. That is, the higher the out-migration patterns and becomes less level of regional income inequality, the sensitive to unique reciprocal migration greater the activity of interprefectural activities among neighboring regions. migration. Regional income inequality Thus, in our analysis, both in- and out is me~ured by: (1) prefectural income migration streams are utilized to capture per capita and (2) per cent Gross Do the overall intensity of migration pat mestic Products (GDP) in tertiary in terns in the region. The variables are dustries. High income per capita is based on 47 prefectures. 8 found in the metropolitan regions such Organizational characteristics are as Kanto (Tokyo) and Kinki (Osaka). represented by the average number of A number of additional independent employees in the following three differ variables are also included in the model ent organizations: (1) wholesale/retail in order to control for extraneous ef - .. - . -- outlets, (2) finance/insurance compan fects: education, residential ownership, ~~: ~ .· ·--.. -. :·:---~· . ..- . - -· ·.. : .. ·.·:-- ies, and (3) service-related firms. The and a number of cities in the prefecture. service/support organization in tertiary Educational levels affect migration ac economic sectors reflects the extent of tivities since they represent the proxy .. regional organizational activities that for labor skills and influence the spatial distribution of labor force. Educational levels are measured by: (1) per cent sThe inflow/outflow 47 x 46 matrix of in junior-high-school graduates who ad terprefectural streams was not used in the present vanced to high school and (2) per cent analysis. For the complete analyses of the full in high-school graduates who advanced to and out-interprefectural migration flow, see Fuku rai et al. (1987) in which the generalized least college. High college admission rates square estimation method was used to account for are found in the southern regions such as the effect of structural variables on vectorized in- -terstate migration streams. Kiit].{i, C::lJ._llg()icl!, and Shikoku. Resi-
·-=:~-:-::-·::::-:- -·.·. :-'--· -:=~ -- Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 37
TOTAL IN-MIGRANTS FROM OTHER PREFECTURES--- 1985 ---
\
. ·-· Hokkaido .. :"'··· _. Okinawa
·:··--·· .· .. ··-· ... .. · ·- ..
.. m.i.qrati.on WWDDD1D 2-3% ~~-• 1••• than3-4% 2% 4% and more
TOTAL OUT-MIGRANTS TO OTHER PREFECTURES --- 1985 ---
Okinawa "'Hokkaido
...... -:~ . -- :· ..--:··:.,.-.:·- :-· ... <:~ .~:-:-·.·:::. - · ...... ~ ... ::· :~.:~ .. ~~=-=-~·.7 -~~-~· . ·· ..-:··- .. ·-: .. -...... -. ~--
,. Tokyo
mi.qrati.on 1eee than 2% 2-3% 3-4% 4% and more FIG. 1.-Japanese interprefectural in- and out-migration. . . . -.- ..
_jfu~; I i'~ffl~~: w; 38 Fukurai Social Biology
dential ownership also impacts interre number of cites may not accurately gional migration, since owners of resi reflect the extent of economic opportu dential household units are less likely to nities, if cities vary in size between pre move than nonowners. Residential fectures. However, the 1988 Japanese ownership is represented by: (1) dwell census indicates that 553 out of 652 total ing units occupied (%) and (2) owned Japanese cities (84.8 per cent) had pop household units (%). Research suggests ulation of 100,000 or less, showing a that household ownership is relatively small variation in the city populations .. low in the Kanto region because of high (Statistics Bureau, 1990). The largest residential land values in Tokyo and its number of cities are found in Japan's adjacent cities (Alston and Fukurai, metropolitan regions such as Kanto and 1990). The absolute number of prefec :Kinki and significantly influence the .. ·• ..... :. tural cities are also included in the magnitude of Japanese interprefectural model in order to account for the extent migration. The descriptive statistics for of economic opportunities and spatial the structural variables are reported in allocation of regional migrants. The Table 1.
TABLEl ·· . ...__ DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR STRUCTURAL VARIABLES ·-··. ·.··- Variables N Mean STD" Minimum Maximum Structural variables Organization Wholesale/retail ...... 47 4.43 .56 3.36 6.67 Finance/insurance ...... 47 17.70 3.93 11.16 34.62 Service ...... 47 6.71 .67 5.66 9.56 Labor market Male labor force (%) ...... 47 80.85 1.40 77.30 83.90 L.F. in tertiary industries (%) ..... 47 54.61 5.75 45.00 69.00 Job opening ratio ...... 47 0.67 0.31 0.18 1.31 Income inequality Prefectural income per capitab ..... 47 1.86 0.26 1.47 3.01 G .D.P. in tertiary sectors ...... 47 0.62 0.07 0.44 0.76 Migration Total in-migrants(% )c ..•.•...•.• 47 2.68 0.70 1.42 4.74 Total out-migrants(%) ...... 47 2.85 0.54 2.05 4.71 . ::.. ·_ .·-.. · .. Control variables .. Education Junior H.S. graduates(%) .. advanced to high school ...... 47 94.63 1.38 90.60 98.00 H.S. graduates(%) advanced to college ...... 47 29.64 6.12 18.10 40.80 Residential ownership ' Occupied dwelling units (%) ...... 47 90.59 1.74 86.77 93.69 Owned household units(%) ...... 47 69.03 8.59 43.86 84.53 City A number of cities ...... 47 13.91 8.16 4.00 40.00
4 Standard deviation. bJn 1 million yen . . . . ------. . ... 'J'~Lc::c;!ltt()tllli.Jl·IIligra.ntstOthetOtlli IJ In sum, the structural model for J apa served relationship among structural nese interregional migration from an ec variables (280.51 XZ with 72 degrees of onomic segmentation perspective is in freedom and p < 0.05). One way to im dicated by the following seven structural prove the original model and to fit better ' variables: (1) interprefectural migra the observed covariance matrix is to re tion, (2) organizational structures, (3) specify the measurement model (Bol labor market characteristics, (4) income len, 1989; Joreskog and Sorbom, 1985). inequality, (5) education, (6) residential The original model in Figure 2 is respe ownership, and (7) a number of cities in cified by allowing unique factor loading~ . :·. :" ~ ..=:<- .:::~:. a given prefecture. The basic theoretical of observed indicators to be correlated . - .. . --. ·- tenet of the economic segmentation Respecification of the measurement model is depicted in Figure 2. model by allowing correlations among unique factors is important because the unique factor correlation allows the sta RESULTS tistical control over possible unreliabili The economic segmentation model ties of observed indicators (Joreskog of interprefectural migration in Japan is and Sorbom, 1985). It thus enhances the examined in Table 2. As the chi-square better fit of the model by providing value indicates, the original model more feasible relationships between ob shown in Figure 2 does not fit the ob- served indicators and their structural .- ·- ...-· .-.- -.· Structural Constructs Control Constructs .... . - -~~~f.~JJ.f) Exogenoua Fectora c:) Endogenoua Factor . . . . . - - Extrane« - . - . -·-- ..-- _,. -.--- - .· -.:~~----· ·-· .-: .-< .. FIG. 2.-The economic segmentation model of Japanese interprefectural migration. ..7-·~----.- ~--· ..- -:- ·.·. -- :::~::~{~~~~~~r:~~'-· .:.----- .... --~=- .. ~:-~::~~--<.· -~-. --- ~-~:--~=!~~.::-:_~~~;~~~;_~:_:~~~- _·_-. ~:~~-~~~r-~~=~:_::s~:- _-:.~--~-:-:- __ :.:· 4-:-"!-:'~':.: __ -:::·. Fukurai Social Biology -- constructs in the measurement model Table 3. Using hierarchical model test (Model lb). Respecification of the ing procedures, we generate differences model further suggests the potential in both chi-squares and degrees of free linkage between one of the indicators dom to examine if the respecified model for organizations (i.e., the average num is acceptable. While all the chi-square ber of employees for service-related values appear to be statistically signi • -~ :/. ~' c. • •. . - ~ ~ firms) and the latent construct of Japa ficant, the differences in two indices, nese labor markets (Model lc). Thus, delta and rho, show the largest values .... ;. '.- Model ld is generated and significantly when compared with Model ld. This .-:-. · . .:.-.· ·.-. :· ... _., _:_ . . _>;:~.:~-:~-~~~~~~~~~~;.: reduces the disparity between repro finding suggests that respecified models :-·- -:-;:·-~:.~-~-;:-~£:.:-_ -. duced (expected) and observed covari significantly improve when compared . ·:- ance matrices. That is, Model ld ex with Model ld. Thus, Model ld is se ., -. -· .. - ;- :· -·.· •· .. - -_-- . plains 80.9 per cent of chi-square values lected as the best empirical model and .- . ~ ~- ;".; .:.- .·. and 75.4 per cent after the degrees of the structural relationship among the la freedom are taken into consideration. tent constructs as well as the measure Looking for a parsimonious model ment relation between the latent factors with conceptual clarity, we compare and and observed indicators is critically ex examine different respecified models in amined. TABLE2 GooDNESS-oF-FIT INDicES FOR STRuCTURAL MoDELS Degrees of Chi- Model Freedom Square Probability Rho(%) Delta(%) Null model ...... 105 668.55 0.000 la (original model specified in Figure 1) ...... ~. 72 280.51 0.000 46.08 58.04 lb (la with covariances among unique factors) ...... 66 180.76 0.000 67.72 72.96 ..... lc (lb with factor loadings between . --: -- X3 and Ksi2)" ...... 65 170.32 0.000 69.77 74.52 ld (lc with ten covariances among unique factors ...... 55 127.92 0.000 75.37 80.86 - :~~=:~ .<·_---:~ '-;·'-'' .... : 4X3 represents the average number of employees per service-related firms. Ksi2 represents the latent labor market variable. ---~:: ~ ~: -: ::_-:_~: -= -:·~~~: ~::: ~~~: ~=~ .. TABLE3 CoMPARISONs BElWEEN NEsTED MoDELS: HIERARCHICAL MoDEL TESTINGS \. Degrees of Chi- Model Freedom Square Probability Rho(%) Delta(%) la vs. lb ...... 6 99.75 0.000 21.64 14.92 lavs. lc ...... 7 110.19 0.000 23.69 16.48 lavs.ld...... 17 152.59 0.000 29.29 22.82 lb vs. lc ...... 1 10.44 0.001 2.05 1.56 lb vs.ld ...... 11 52.84 0.000 7.65 7.90 ·:· ,: lcvs. ld ...... 10 42.40 0.000 5.60 6.34 Vol. 38~ No. 1-2 Japanese Migration Reliability coefficients for observed and 1960's promised better conditions indicators~ regression weights of latent for workers and promoted interprefec constructs, and their inter-factor corre tural migration to urban industrial re lation coefficients are reported in Tables gions (Ishida, 1966; White, 1982). In ad 4 and 5. There are several notable find dition, a substantial difference between ings from the measurement model in agricultural and nonagricultural wages Table 4. First, a positive factor loading and the concentration of Japan's revived for in-migration (0.831) suggests that industries in urban areas led to a post prefectures with high in-migration are war migratory flood from rural to urban - - .... --· :~. ·- also characterized by high out areas (Kurasawa, 1967). migration, i.e., significant reciprocal mi ln the 1970's, however, net in gration patterns among Japanese pre migration to urban regions began to de fectures. 9 Reciprocal interprefectural cline. At the same time, neighboring migration indicates that rural-to-urban prefectures to the urban regions became migration no longer characterizes to the fastest-growing areas (White, 1982). day's Japanese migration patterns. For The so-called J-turn migration move example, in 1988, less than 1 per cent of ment into the urban centers and thence the population lived in communities of out to neighboring prefectures became fewer than 5,000 persons, suggesting the successor to earlier rural-to-urban .._.'; ·.·, that little rural population was left to· migration (Glickman, 1979). In addi move out (Statistics Bureau, 1990). tion, the economic growth of tertiary Research points out that rural-to sectors was observed not only in the me urban migration was the predominant tropolis such as Tokyo and Osaka, but form of population distribution only un in the neighboring regions as well til the 1970's. For instance, after the (Krooth and Fukurai, 1990; White, war, the changes in both legal and politi 1982). Thus, the direction of today's cal factors contributed to the significant Japanese interprefectural migration is migratory flow to urban regions. The no longer from rural to urban regions. power of landlords was substantially re As the analysis suggests, the migra duced, and they were totally eliminated tion pattern is becoming more and more as a class in the late 1940's, freeing nu reciprocal, reflecting both interdepen merous tenants tied to the land by debt. dency of prefectural economic sectors ~-·. :· ·.. The official anti-urban ideology of the and the overall development of the sec . -- .. ~ .. - - -·- .,.···-·. . .. wartime regime was also discredited. ondary segment of the economy in Ja ... The growth of labor unions in the 1950's pan. For example, between 1985 and ·.·.·. -··. ------1986, migrants from outside prefectures constituted 4.11 per cent of the total 9Jbe factor loading for male in-migration was population in Tokyo. During the same set to 1.0 in order to eliminate scale indeterminacy and to obtain unique solutions for the empirical period, almost the same number of peo i model of 1 apanese economic segmentation (Long, ple emigrated from Tokyo to outer pre 1983). However, the standardized solution for some observed indicators became larger than the fectures (4.14 per cent). Similar patterns unity because of the poor fit of the theoretically were observed in other prefectures as derived expected covariance matrix to the ob served covariance matrix (0.753 and {).808 for well (for instance, a Pearson correlation delta and rho, respectively). This finding suggests coefficient between 1985 and 1986 in that important potential extraneous factors for in and out-migration patterns is 0.795 and terprefectural migration might not have been in .puded in the segmentation modeL p < 0.05). The growth of service/ 42 Fulrurai Social Biology support firms in the tertiary sector, thus a given prefecture, the less the activity significantly relies on interregional mi of interprefectural migration. This rela grants as a primary source of unskilled tionship also implies that prefectures labor. In addition, both economic and with a small proportion of high-school geographical barriers between prefec graduates are more likely to require the tures no longer represent the major ob large inflow of regional migrants as po stacle for migration. For instance, Japa tential employees in the tertiary sector nese interprefectural migration was · of the economy. 10 For example, in ·.·_ .. : :.... ·. further facilitated by highly developed, March, 1987, out of 458,000 jobs availa efficient transportation networks and ble, employment opportunities in the :-:;-·:·.::=.~:::~.::::;~ __ ::· .. - :· ·-· ·.-;·· :·. - -. _.-.·· -·- significant urbanization processes since primary economic sector only repre - -:..- ..-·-· .. the end of World War II (Krooth and sented 8,000 jobs (i.e., 2 per cent of the .. ·. ·.: .. ··· ·. Fukurai, 1990). entire job openings), and the secondary Table 5 shows the structural relation economic sector accounted for the rest ship aniong the latent constructs in the of employment opportunities (Small economic segmentation model. Organi and Medium Enterprises Agency, zational characteristics are examined in 1988). Thus, for people of lower educa relation to different economic sectors. tion, unstable secondary labor markets The labor market is also examined in re and economic shifts in production loca lation to different labor-force character tion are conducive to a high level of in istics. The structural relationship among terprefectural mobility as these people the latent constructs shows mixed search for steady employment (Krooth :·.· .. : .. :_· ... results. First, the organizational growth and Fukurai, 1990). White (1982) in tertiary sectors significantly increases pointed out that migrants to Tokyo the regional economic activity (0.228), comprised roughly two-thirds of blue suggesting that the growth of economic collar occupational categories in manu sectors in financial, commercial, and facturing and service sectors. He also service industries leads to the high level observed that migrants accounted for 43 of economic wealth and prosperity. Sec per cent of white-collar office perSonnel ond, labor-market characteristics are in both the private and public sectors found to show the significant direct im and 54 per cent of the managerial execu pact on interprefectural migration. That tive and technical/semiprofessional oc- ·-·· is, the greater the proportion of males in -:::: . ·• ._ . -->-·. the labor force and the higher the labor force participation in tertiary segments to An important concern in using aggregate in of the economy, the greater the intensity formation in explaining interprefectural migration of interprefectural migration (0.254). is that of the ecological fallacy. The explanation of .. behavioral variations such as divorce, using the ag This finding further substantiates that gregate information, requires certain assumptions tertiary economic sectors significantly of the linkage between behavioral and areal phe nomena. Many theoretical assumptions of the eco rely on interregional migratory workers nomic opportunity thesis, for instance, deal with .. as the primary source of unskilled labor. behavioral aspects of migration, while the eco Education is also found to influence nomic segmentation model is concerned with the areal and/or spatial variations of migration. How interprefectural migration. The effect ever, the use of aggregate information is more use on migration is negative ( -0.331), sug ful in explaining regional variations of migration since the economic segmentation model takes into gesting that the greater the proportion consideration the socioeconomic and demo of students advancing to high schools for graphic factors that pre-exist before migrati()n. Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 43 cupational groups. His analysis further RESIDUAL ANALYSIS substantiated that 71 per cent of the mi grants surveyed had nine years of educa While Japanese economic segmenta tion or less (p. 78). The important no tion explains interprefectural migration, ' tion here is that today's Japanese several shortcomings of the current interprefectural migration plays an im model need to be examined. First, our portant role in supplying unskilled labor unit of analysis is the individual prefec to the secondary segment of the econ ture, while migration can be examined omy. at either regional levels (e.g., Tohoku or With regard to other control factors, Kanto regions where Tokyo and other -·. - --- residential characteristics and number metropolitan prefectures are assumed of cities for a given prefecture are not to form a single geographic region) or found to be significant predictors of in intra-prefecturallevels (e. g., counties of terprefectural migration after the struc respective prefectures). The analysis at tural factors of economic segmentation the county level might be ideal; how are taken into consideration. ever, such detailed information has not ···::- ~: - TABLE4 STANDARDIZED PARAMETER ESTIMATES: A MEASUREMENT MODEL Factor Standard Critical Variables Loadings Errors Ratio .. ·. ··:· Structural variables Organization Wholesale/retail ...... 0.848 a Finance/insurance ...... 0.673 0.125 5.384 Service ...... 0.838 0.089 9.415 Labor market Male labor force ...... 0.695 L.F. in tertiary industries ... , ..... : ...•..... 0.685. 0.181 3.784 Job opening ratio ...... · ...... 0.872 . 0.215 4.055 . • .. - -· Education Junior H.S. graduates advanced to high school . 0.766 H.S. graduates advanced to college ...... -0.156 0.183 -0.852 Residential ownership Occupied dwelling units ...... 0.312 Owned household units ...... 1.212 2.165 0.559 City A number of cities in prefecture ...... 0.688 Income inequality Prefectual income per capitab ...... 1.008 G .D.P. in tertiary sectors ...... 0.189 0.117 1.615 Migrationc Total in-migrants...... 1.058 Total out-migrants ...... 0.831 0.110 7.554 "Fixed to 1.0 to eliminate scale indeterminacy and obtain unique solutions to the empirical model. bJn 1 million yen. cJ(l = 127.92, df = 55, GF1 ratio (J(lfdf) = 2.325, delta = 0.809, rho = 0.754. ·.· .. - - :--- -_::,.:~=:.·:·---- . - ~-~~~-:::~~':_:~~~.~~~~~~ ~~: ~~~=-~ ·-:=:: _: .: Fukurai Social Biology TABLES STANDARDIZED PARAMETER ESTIMATES: A STRUCTURAL MODELa Standardized Factor Standard Critical Parameters Loadings Errors Ratio Factor correlations ORG-LM ...... 0.168 0.114 1.473 ORG-EDU ...... -0.460 0.133 3.458 ORG-RES ...... -0.673 0.118 5.703 ORG-CITI ...... 1.0491' 0.165 6.357 LM-EDU ...... -0.974 0.150 6.493 LM-RES ...... 0.268 0.045 5.955 -- LM-CITI ...... 0.242 0.120 2.016 .. -:--=- .- .. ·:-_' ,;-~- -- - _, . ---~-~- -~-=--·_=.;:_::~-~-.-: ....· ED-RES ...... -.o.059 0.037 1.594 -· ...... ·--··4 ED-CITI ...... -0.449 0.130 3.453 RES-CITI ...... -0.652 0.094 7.361 R,.egression weights ORG-INC ...... 0.228 0.130 1.753 ORG-MIG ...... -0.010 0.066 0.151 LM-INC ...... _...... -0.136 0.144 0.944 LM-MIG ...... 0.254 0.029 8.758 INC-MIG ...... -0.042 0.037 1.135 EDU-MIG ...... ; ...... -0.331 0.147 2.251 RES-MIG ...... -0.015 0.028 0.535 ·. -~.:· CITY-MIG ...... -0.045 0.034 1.323 Standardized Residuals Variances In~m~ Inequality ...... 0.882 Migration ...... 0.420 «QRG = Organization; LM = Labor Market; INC = Income Inequality; MIG = Migration; EDU = Education; RES = Residential Ownership; CI1Y =- A Number of Cities. 6Greater than unity because of iterated estimations. been made available by the Japanese fectural migration were not included in Census Bureau. our theoretical model. A second problem is the relative ~ack One of the most effective ways to ex of fit of the economic segmentation amine possible effects of other- extrane model to the observed covariance ma ous variables is to spatially display the trix. Our original model did not fit the residual of interprefectural migrants by observed relationship among structural controlling for the structural variables in variables (280.5JX2 with 72 degrees of the model, that is, unique Japanese mi freedom and p < 0.05). Respecification gration patterns can be observed by ex of the measurement model was per amining the spatial distribution of unex formed by allowing unique factor corre plained residuals for migrants in each lations which improved the goodness prefecture. of-fit of the original model. However, Figure 3 shows the residual distribu \ the model still needs further respecifica tion of interprefectural migration and tion to improve the fit of expected covar suggests two key findings. The first find iance matrices to an observed covari ing is the effect of different regional ance matrix. This lack of fit with characteristics on migration activities unexplained chi-square values suggests and the model's over- and under that all the causal variables of interpre- estimation of interprefectural migra- - --- . ::·_:·: ~~---:: -;..~~~:.::.:~~~-. ~::::.- Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 45 tion. Table 6 gives the model's residual gion (0.59 and 0.55 for standardized re values for interprefectural migration in siduals for in- and out-migration) and · 47 prefectures and nine regions. Not prefectures with underestimated migra only is there variation between different tion are all adjacent to the most eco regions, but there are migration differ nomically active prefecture in Japan, ences within the regions as well. For ex i.e., Tokyo. ample, the economic segmentation There are two reasons for the signi model overestimated the migrants in ficant underestimation of migratory pat three prefectures with the largest nega terns in metropolitan regions. First, tive residuals (Hokkaido, Toyama, and high residential land prices in metropoli ... :-: - .. ·.·.:. .. - Okinawa for both in- and out tp.n regions pushed the large number of migration). The economic segmentation the prefectural population to outer re model also underestimated the migrants gions. For example, Tokyo has the high in three prefectures with the largestpos est average residential land price, i.e., itive residuals (Saitama, Chiba, and $6,795 per square meter in 1988. Simi Kanagawa for in-migration and larly, Osaka is characterized by the sec Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa for out ond highest residential land price migration). The interesting finding here ($1,615 per square meter) (Statistics Bu is that those underestimated migration reau, 1990). As a result, significant pop -·:·· activities are observed in the Kanto re- ulation decrease in some urban centers ·--·· (1) In· Migrants from Other Prefectures Okinawa ~V Hokkaido Osaka (2) Out-Migrants to Other Prefectures Hokkaido Tokyo ,/"'... Positive Residual . ""'-./ Negative Residual FIG. 3.--Standardized residuals from the economic segmentation model. ... . ,. . _.·_,:. :..:.--.:-·-- _.:· ..:.-·:·.·:" ::~-;:·~~:~<:_ ~i;:~::~:-;~£~::~~ ::; Fulrurai Social Biology TABLE6 TOTAL IN-MIGRANTS AND OUT-MIGRANTS IN 1985: PREDICTED vALUES, RESIDUALS, STANDARDIZED REsiDUALS TOTAL IN-MIGRANTS TOTAL OUT-MIGRANTS Plu!FEcruitE Predicted Standardized Predicted Standardized FaoMNEroSW Value" Residual Residual Value Residual Residual Hokkaido Island 1 Hokkaido ...... 2.923 -1.4% -3.387 3.234 -1.087 -3.220 Honshu Island 2 Aomori ...... 2.178 0.367 0.784 2.889 0.617 1.722 3 Iwate ...... 2.080 0.150 0.305 2.679 0.248 0.658 4 Miyagi ...... 2.990 0.192 0.401 3.2% -0.075 -0.205 5 Akita ...... 2.169 -0.282 -0.568 2.697 -0.052 -0.137 6 Yamagata ...... 2.004 -0.191 -0.388 2.539 -0.310 -0.822 7 Fukushima ...... 2.031 0.066 0.140 2.632 -0.213 -0.591 81baragi ...... 3.083 -0.446 -0.987 2.577 -0.201 -0.583 9 Tochigi ...... 2.659 -0.185 -0.372 2.427 -0.129 -0.339 10 Gunma ...... 2.684 -0.570 -1.142 2.511 -0.461 -1.207 11 Saitama ...... 2.959 . 1.062 2.508 2.369 0.695 2.148 12 Chiba ...... 3.217 1.085 2.313 2.870 0.636 1.773 13 Tokyo ...... 4.736 0.011 0.036 4.291 0.423 1.753 14 Kanagawa ...... 3.847 0.825 1.779 3.506 0.118 0.334 15 Niigata ...... 2.144 -0.472 -0.974 2.416 -0.335 -0.907 16 Toyama ...... 2.831 -0.928 -2.087 2.688 -0.575 -1.692 17 Ishikawa ...... 2.820 -0.378 -0.793 3.047 -0.348 -0.957 18 Fukui ...... 1.%8 -0.007 -0.016 2.435 -0.156 -0.440 19 Y amanashi ...... 2.503 0.419 1.005 2.428 0.262 0.823 20 Nagano ...... 2.044 0.056 0.123 2.123 -0.039 -0.114 21 Gifu ...... 2.163 0.031 0.060 2.234 0.014 0.036 22 Shizuoka ...... 2.405 0.208 0.419 . 2.271 0.256 0.675 23 Aichi ...... 2.751 -0.226 -0.620 2.417 -0.105 -0.379 ~- .· .. 24 Mie ...... 2.744 -0.134 -0.273 2.527 -0.031 -0.084 25 Shiga ...... 2.919 0.169 0.417 2.(f.)7 0.129 0.417 26 Kyoto ...... 3.171. -0.087 -0.168 3.386 -0.160 -0.407 27 Osaka ...... 3.145 -0.380 -0.837 3.190 -0.268 -0.771 28 Hyogo ...... 3.124 -0.433 -0.892 3.001 -0.197 -0.533 29 Nara ...... 3.377 0.172 0.413 3.090 -0.119 -0.375 30 Wakayama ...... 2.469 -0.578 -1.321 2.(f.)7 -0.133 -0.400 31 Tottori ...... 2.249 0.255 0.525 2.782 -0.003 -0.009 32 Shimane ...... 1.908 0.518 1.019 2.465 0.362 0.932 33 Okayama ...... 2.873 -0.304 -0.626 3.006 -0.310 -0.835 34 Hiroshima ...... 2.750 0.388 0.823 3.177 0.153 0.426 35 Yamaguchi ...... 2.790 0.143 0.301 2.998 0.546 1.502 Shikoku Island 36 Tokushima ...... 2.443 -0.243 -0.491 2.782 -0.220 -0.582 37 Kagawa ...... 2.704 0.404 0.863 2.832 0.422 1.180 38 Ehime ...... 2.511 -0.237 -0.474 2.759 -0.028 -0.075 39 Koehl ...... 2.297 -0.078 -0.213 2.880 -0.218 -0.772 Kyushu Island 40 Fukuoka ...... 3.117 -0.091 -0.197 3.594 -0.312 -0.882 41 Saga ...... 2.659 0.197 0.392 3.146 0.219 0.570 42 Nagasaki ...... 2.664 0.275 0.552 3.300 0.434 1.139 43 Kumamoto ...... 2.643 0.080 0.169 3.234 -0.194 -0.535 44 Oita ...... 2.748 -0.052 -0.100 3.098 0.086 0.219 45 Miyazaki ...... 2.248 0.565 1.065 2.946 0.572 1.410 46 Kagoshima ...... 2.312 0.600 1.224 2.884 0.492 1.314 Okinawa Island .:. ·.. ; ... ·.·. -··.· 47 Qkinawa • ." .•••...• 3.037 -0.440 --1.501 3.158 =0.401 -1.791 Vol. 38, No. 1-2 Japanese Migration 49 TABLE 6 (continued) TOTAL IN-MIGRANTS TOTAL OUT-MIGRANTS PREFECTURE Predicted Standardized Predicted Standardized FRoMNEToSW Val.W Value Residual .. Residual Residual Residual Regions Hokkaido (1) ...... 2.923 -1.496 -3.387 3.234 -1.087 -3.220 Tohoku(6) ...... 2.242 0.050 0.112 2.789 0.035 0.104 f Kanto (7) ...... 3.312 0.254 0.590 2.936 0.154 0.554 Chubu(9) ...... 2.403 -0.144 . -0.320 2.451 -0.114 -0.328 Kinki(7) ...... 2.993 -0.181 -0.380 2.951 -0.111 -0.307 Chugoku (5) ...... 2.514 0.200 0.408 2.886 0.149 0.403 .·; + _.:. ~·- ~ •• :~- ;·~ p~~~--~.: ~:~. :~ -;-·_ ::.: Shikoku (4) ...... 2.489 -0.038 -0.078 2.813 -0.011 -0.062 .. :.·.-. . Kyushu(7) ...... 2.627 0.225 0.443 3.172 0.185 0.462 Okinawa (1) ...... 3.037 -0.440 -1.501 3.158 -0.401 -1.791 . ---~- ·-· -. "'n percentage. .· .. : .. :.·:·:. ' and population increase in the adjacent labor-market characteristics need to be - . ~ .. - ·.. prefectures was observed. For instance, incorporated in the model to explain the .. -.· . ··- .. while Tokyo has experienced moderate larger variance of the unexplained in -~--· ... ·:-. population increase between 1980 and terprefectural migration pattern. For ~- ·... 1985 ( 1. 8 per cent), the neighboring pre example, Kepart (1966) and· Leslie fectures showed a significant population {1976) suggest that the existence of a increase (5 per cent or more). frontier tradition in the American West A second factor in the underestima characterized by rootlessness and non tion of migration patterns in metropoli conformity is partly responsible for tan regions is the significant number of unique migration and behavioral pat - . :- .· commuting populations going from ur terns in the West compared to the East. ban centers to neighboring regions. For We concur with this hypothesis, except instance, in 1985, two prefectures, that in Japan, the "frontier" seems to be Saitama and Kanagawa, sent approxi found in its rural areas rather than else .·: mately one million daily commuters to where, especially in its northern neighboring prefectures, mostly to To {Hokkaido) and southern islands kyo (Statistics Bureau, 1990). While {Okinawa). Thus, our empirical model high land prices in Tokyo and other met needed to incorporate the extraneous ... . . -. ~ -:- . variables such as residential land values, -:---~-=~=-=-~---·- :.. ·... ·.· ropolitan regions forced many workers . :-· ,.: .. -:---·- to live in the neighboring prefectures, commuting populations, and regional the metropolis is still able to retain its la specific cultures and different traditions bor force through the efficient commut in order to enhance the explanatory ing facilities and transportation net power of the economic segmentation works {Glickman, 1979; Norbeck, 1978; model. Umesao et al., 1986; White, 1973). Another notable finding is the in CONCLUSIONS terprefectural variation among and within islands such as Hokkaido and This paper examined the economic Okinawa. Inter-island migration varia segmentation model in explaining inter tions suggest that extraneous variables regional migration in Japan. The analy other than dual economic sectors or ses suggested that the growth of a labor -- . . --- -. ~. -- 48 Fukurai Social Biology market played an important role in in reliability in explaining the pattern of fluencing the magnitude of interprefec Japanese interregional migration. tural migration. The findings also sug gested that the migration pattern was ACKNOWLEDGMENTS becoming more and more reciprocal, n and rural-to-urban migration no longer The author wishes to thank the College of characterized today's Japanese migra Liberal Arts, the Center for Urban Affairs, -~ and the Institute of Pacific Asia of Texas -' tion patterns. Education was also found A&M University for supporting the research ) to influence interprefectural migration reported in this paper. The author is espe in that prefectures with a small propor cially appreciative to Harlow Landphair, Pi tion of high-school graduates were more reqor of the Center for Urban Affairs, Jon likely to rely on the large inflow of re Alston and Letitia Alston in the Department gional migrants, and the migratory of Sociology, and Minjeong Park and Y eongi Son in the Pacific Rim Nations Pro workers became important potential jects at Texas A&M University for data employees for the secondary segment of preparation and the development of the Ge the economy. Furthermore, the residual ographic Information System (GIS) of Ja analysis of the economic segmentation pan. Appreciation is also extended to Rich model identified the prefectures with ard Krooth in the Department of Interdisciplinary Studies at San Francisco the largest residual dispersions and sug State University, John I. Kitsuse in the if-.: gested that high residential land values, Board of Studies in Sociology at the Univer significant commuting populations, and sity of California, Santa Cruz, Edgar W. regional-specific cultures and traditions Butler in the Department of Sociology at the University of California, Riverside, and So need to be incorporated in the model in cial Biology reviewers who read the earlier order to assess the extent of the model's draft and made valuable suggestions. REFERENCES ALsToN, J.P., H. FUKURAI, Y. SoN, and M. ments. Univ. of California Press, Berkeley. PARK. 1990. A heuristic for locating a retail CHo, C. K. 1987. Ethnic identity and political business in Japan. J. Glob. Bus., 1:46-52. movement: A history of the Korean minor BARON, J. N., and W. BIELBY. 1980. Bringing ity in Japan. JPRN Working Paper Series, the firms back in: Stratification, segmenta Berkeley. tion, and the organization of work. Amer. CoNNELL, J., B. DASGUPTA, R. LAISHLEY, and Sociol. 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