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Population Viability Analysis of the Sula Sgeir Gannet Population

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Population Viability Analysis of the Sula Sgeir Gannet Population Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 897 Population viability analysis of the Sula Sgeir gannet population COMMISSIONED REPORT Commissioned Report No. 897 Population viability analysis of the Sula Sgeir gannet population For further information on this report please contact: Dr Andrew Douse Scottish Natural Heritage Great Glen House Leachkin Road INVERNESS IV3 8NW Telephone: 01463 725241 E-mail: [email protected] This report should be quoted as: Trinder, M. 2016. Population viability analysis of the Sula Sgeir gannet population. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 897. This report, or any part of it, should not be reproduced without the permission of Scottish Natural Heritage. This permission will not be withheld unreasonably. The views expressed by the author(s) of this report should not be taken as the views and policies of Scottish Natural Heritage. © Scottish Natural Heritage 2016. COMMISSIONED REPORT Summary Population viability analysis of the Sula Sgeir gannet population Commissioned Report No. 897 Project No: 15222 Contractor: Mark Trinder, MacArthur Green Year of publication: 2016 Keywords Gannet; Sula Sgeir; Population Viability Analysis; harvesting. Background The Sula Sgeir gannet Morus bassanus population is subject to an agreed annual harvest of full grown chicks (known locally as guga) each summer. SNH commissioned MacArthur Green to undertake a population viability analysis of the Sula Sgeir population to assist in the understanding of the population’s dynamics in relation to the current harvest level and potential future changes. This report provides details of the approach taken and the results obtained. Main findings The modelling presented suggests that the harvest of gannet chicks at Sula Sgeir has reduced the rate of population growth rate below the level that would be predicted in the absence of harvest. It is likely that this has had an effect (to a smaller extent) on other populations that are linked through immigration and emigration. Nevertheless, the population has continued to grow and it seems probable that this would continue to be the case at the current harvest level (of 2,000 chicks per year) and at increased levels of harvest up to 3,500. Harvest levels above 3,500 are very likely to lead to long-term decline in the Sula Sgeir gannet population. For further information on this project contact: Dr Andrew Douse, Scottish Natural Heritage, Great Glen House, Inverness, IV3 8NW. Tel: 01463 725241 or [email protected] For further information on the SNH Research & Technical Support Programme contact: Knowledge & Information Unit, Scottish Natural Heritage, Great Glen House, Inverness, IV3 8NW. Tel: 01463 725000 or [email protected] i Table of Contents Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. METHODS 1 2.1 Estimation of immigration and emigration from Scottish breeding populations 1 2.2 Simulation of the Sula Sgeir population with varying levels of annual harvest 2 3. RESULTS 3 3.1 Estimated demographic rates for the Scottish gannet population 3 3.2 Estimated rates of immigration and emigration from Scottish colonies 3 3.3 Simulations of the Sula Sgeir population under varying levels of harvest 4 4. DISCUSSION 6 5. CONCLUSIONS 7 6. REFERENCES 7 ANNEX 1: SULA SGEIR GANNET POPULATION PREDICTIONS GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS 8 ANNEX 2: SULA SGEIR GANNET POPULATION PREDICTIONS – TABULATED OUTPUTS 16 ii Acknowledgements The work was commissioned by Andrew Douse, Policy & Advice Manager, Scottish Natural Heritage. Professor Bob Furness and an anonymous reviewer provided comments on the draft report. iii 1. INTRODUCTION The Sula Sgeir gannet (Morus bassanus) population is subject to an agreed annual harvest of full grown chicks (known locally as guga) each summer. SNH commissioned MacArthur Green to undertake a population viability analysis of the Sula Sgeir population to assist in understanding the population’s dynamics in relation to the current harvest level and potential future changes. This report provides details of the approach taken and the results obtained. The modelling is based on that presented in WWT (2012). 2. METHODS The British gannet population is one of the best studied seabird populations, with all known breeding colonies counted at least once every decade since 1985 (Murray et al., 2015). Between 2004 and 2014 (the most recent pair of counts) the Scottish population increased at an average annual rate of 2.9%, although the rate has varied across Scottish colonies between 41.8% (Sule Skerry) and -0.15 (Sule Stack). Sula Sgeir increased between 2004 and 2014 at an average of 2.2%, despite an annual harvest of up to 2,000 chicks. 2.1 Estimation of immigration and emigration from Scottish breeding populations As a first step in developing a probabilistic model for predicting the impact of harvesting on the Sula Sgeir population, a preliminary deterministic model was developed to help understand the potential role of external inputs (i.e. immigrants) and outputs (i.e. harvested chicks) to the observed population growth. This modelling also considered the potential exchange between other Scottish breeding colonies. To do this the following steps were taken: A deterministic model was used to project the Scottish population between 2004 and 2014 using the demographic rates presented in WWT (2012) and the 2004 population estimate. The population growth rate predicted by this model was 0.58% per year, which is lower than the observed annual growth rate of 2.9%. It was not clear what accounted for this difference (survival, reproduction or immigration from elsewhere). However, it was considered unlikely that there has been substantial immigration into the Scottish population from elsewhere so it was assumed that elevated demographic rates were responsible for the difference. Three alternative approaches for increasing the demographic rates were considered. o Scenario 1: multiplying all demographic rates by the same amount; o Scenario 2: multiplying all survival rates by the same amount but retaining the original productivity value; o Scenario 3: retaining all survival rates at their original values and multiplying productivity. For each scenario a multiplication factor was found which increased the demographic rates such that the model prediction matched the observed trend. The resulting three sets of baseline demographic rates were used for the remaining population modelling. Each Scottish colony was simulated from its 2004 size using each of the three sets of adjusted demographic rates. The difference between the observed and predicted 2014 population sizes was then converted into an annual level of immigration or emigration depending on whether the colony had grown above or below the national average. This approach assumes that demographic parameters are the same at all colonies. There is some evidence that breeding success is very similar across colonies (JNCC Seabird Monitoring Programme database), and the only study of survival rates found 1 no evidence for any differences in survival rates among colonies (Wanless et al., 2006). For the Sula Sgeir population the model also included the average annual harvest of chicks. Note that four Scottish populations were omitted from this analysis for the following reasons: Noss and Foula have grown at (or near) the Scottish rate and therefore immigration and emigration are assumed to be balanced; Rockall and Barra are very small colonies and are thus not considered to play a role in the wider Scottish population dynamics. 2.2 Simulation of the Sula Sgeir population with varying levels of annual harvest Having established estimates of the average level of immigration into the Sula Sgeir population, a stochastic model was developed. This model was based on that presented in WWT (2012) which used survival rates estimated from analysis of ring recovery data for individuals ringed at several colonies over a period of four decades (Wanless et al., 2006); note that the values for all colonies combined were used here. The productivity rate was derived from observations made at a wide range of colonies (data extracted from the JNCC Seabird Monitoring Programme database) over a similar period as the survival analysis. As noted above, using these demographic values the model predicts average annual growth at 0.58%. However, the Scottish population has grown at an annual rate of 2.9% over this period. Therefore the demographic rates were adjusted as described above for each scenario, prior to modelling. Environmental stochasticity was included using the standard deviations provided in WWT (2012). Demographic stochasticity was included by employing a binomial function on the survival rates. The model was density independent which is likely to be appropriate for this population at its current size, although as the colony expands will become less so. However, we have little information with which to guide the estimation of density dependent relationships at this site. Immigration was set at the average rate estimated using the deterministic models, and harvesting was applied across a range of values from 0 to 4,000 at increments of 250. In all cases the model was run for a period of 25 years, with 5,000 simulations at each harvesting level. The following graphical outputs from each of the three model scenarios are provided: population projection for the un-harvested and maximum harvest (4,000) simulations; population growth rate and change in population growth rate (plotted separately), presented across the full range of harvesting rates,
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