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Nigerian Unity: in the Balance

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Nigerian Unity: in the Balance Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues relat- ed to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and, • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of Defense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip reports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army participation in national security policy formulation. Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press NIGERIAN UNITY: IN THE BALANCE Gerald McLoughlin Clarence J. Bouchat June 2013 The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the inter- est of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010. ***** This manuscript was funded by the U.S. Army War College External Research Associates Program. Information on this program is available on our website, www.StrategicStudies Institute.army.mil, at the Opportunities tab. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and appropriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA. Contact SSI by visiting our website at the following address: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute and USAWC Press publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic com- mentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-577-1 ii FOREWORD Nigeria is the key country in Sub-Saharan Africa for the success of American policy and interests, but is poorly understood by policymakers. Nigeria is an Afri- can powerhouse blessed with a large growing economy, huge reserves of oil and natural gas, the largest popu- lation in Africa, a rich cultural diversity, and powerful regional influence. Nigeria is also beset by chronic in- ternal strife and unstable governments, corruption, poor human development and human rights records, and is a hub for international crime. Although currently enjoy- ing a period of democracy and economic growth, the forces that balance Nigerian unity are fragile and may yet fatally fracture Nigeria’s polity and state integrity. To overcome this lack of understanding of Nigeria, this monograph analyzes where fractures in the state occur and why. It offers practical recommendations to U.S. Government officials to support positive out- comes in Nigeria that ensure a stable, prosperous coun- try that can partner with the United States in attaining mutual goals. This monograph is particularly relevant for govern- ment and military officials tasked with responsibilities in West and Sub-Saharan Africa, but who may not pos- sess much understanding of Nigeria and its importance to the United States. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to publish this paper as a contribution toward a more complete understanding of Nigeria in order to advance both its interests and those of the United States. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press iii ABOUT THE AUTHORS GERALD MCLOUGHLIN is a retired U.S. Foreign Service Officer with extensive service in Sub-Saha- ran Africa, most notably Cameroon, Mozambique, and Nigeria. He is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College, Hunter College (CUNY), and Southern Connecticut State College. CLARENCE J. BOUCHAT, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel, is currently a senior researcher with the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Department of Distance Education. His last assignment was as a faculty member of the USAWC. Immediately after retirement, he went to Liberia as part of a Security Sector Reform team meant to recon- stitute a new Ministry of Defense. He has published several works concerning security issues in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa. Lieutenant Colonel Bouchat is a graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy and the University of Southern California. v SUMMARY Nigeria’s continuation as a cohesive functioning state is important to the United States due to the bilat- eral economic relationship, Nigeria’s influence in the international community, and its pivotal role for U.S. interests in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the impor- tance of Nigeria to the United States, the centrifugal forces that tear at the country’s unity and the centrip- etal forces which have kept Nigeria whole are not well understood and are rarely examined. Those who make or execute U.S. policy will find it difficult to advance U.S. interests in Africa without an understanding of the pressures that bind and tear Nigeria. This monograph examines why Nigeria is impor- tant to the United States, and the historic, religious, cultural, political, physical, demographic, and eco- nomic factors that will determine if Nigeria remains whole. It identifies Nigeria’s major fault lines and makes policy recommendations for the United States to support Nigerians in their efforts to maintain a functioning and integrated state and, by so doing, advance U.S. interests. vii NIGERIAN UNITY: IN THE BALANCE The existence of Nigeria as a unified state is in jeop- ardy. Nigeria’s continuation as a cohesive functioning state is important to the United States due to the bilat- eral economic relationship, Nigeria’s role in the inter- national community, and its centrality to U.S. interests in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the importance of Ni- geria to the United States, the centrifugal forces that tear at the country’s unity and the centripetal forces that have kept Nigeria whole are not well understood and are rarely examined. Those who make or execute U.S. policy will find it difficult to advance U.S. inter- ests without an understanding of the pressures that bind and tear Nigeria. This monograph examines why Nigeria is impor- tant to the United States and the historical, religious, cultural, political, physical, demographic, and eco- nomic factors that will determine if Nigeria remains whole. It identifies Nigeria’s major fault lines and makes policy recommendations for U.S. support to Nigerians in their efforts to maintain a function- ing and integrated state and, by so doing, advance U.S. interests. NIGERIA’S IMPORTANCE TO THE UNITED STATES Nigeria is central to U.S. interests in Sub-Saharan Africa and important to U.S interests beyond the Af- rican continent. Its value to the United States is best understood in the context of post-Cold War Sub-Sa- haran Africa’s growing strategic importance.1 This is primarily due to Sub-Saharan Africa’s expanding role 1 in supplying the world economy, including key U.S. allies and potential rivals, with oil, gas, and nonfuel minerals. This has been highlighted by the expansion of efforts of emerging powers to obtain greater access to Sub-Saharan African resources and markets with China, in particular, achieving notable success.2 In rough tandem with its global role, Sub-Saharan Africa’s significance to the United States has grown as it supplies a steadily growing amount of oil to the United States, and its commercial market is also grow- ing in significance as U.S. companies tap into non- extractive sectors of the Sub-Saharan economy. The United States has already become Sub-Saharan Afri- ca’s second-largest industrial supplier, with American businesses exporting over $6 billion worth of goods to Africa in 2010 and importing goods from Africa worth more than $16 billion.3 In this context, U.S. Government agencies have identified specific U.S.
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