Objectivity – a Pipe Dream

OObjectivity - a Pipe Dream ?

Ethics & Trust in Finance Global edition 2016-2017

Finalist

Mariusz Maziarz On Price Indices The estimates obtained in these three ways are likely to differ more Poland and Objectivity Ph.D. candidate, than the average value of their Wroclaw University of 8IBU XJMM UIF SBUF PG JOËBUJPO ex-post error. Moreover, even an Economics*, be next year? That question can be answer to the question about the Wroclaw answered in several ways. A skeptic JOËBUJPO SBUF UIBU XBT NFBTVSFE who adheres to the Pyrrhonic in the previous year is ambiguous. conviction that it is impossible It can be given by indicating the to make predictions will look at value of the Consumer Price Index MBTU ZFBSkT JOËBUJPO ÊHVSFT XIJDI (CPI) or Producer Price Index assuming random changes in this (PPI) published by the US Bureau macroeconomic indicator, would be of Labor Statistics. Or one might the best estimate. An econometrician VTF UIF WBMVF PG UIF (%1 EFËBUPS will apply his mathematical knowledge whose estimates are delivered by the and modeling ability to analyze how Bureau of Economic Analysis. Then, JOËBUJPOIBTCFFOUSFOEJOHPWFSUIF for the sake of simplicity, one might past years and whether it has been compare the cost of the same basket correlated with other variables. A of shopping bought today and a year * The views expressed herein are those of the (theoretical) economist will build ago. Finally, the value of each of the author and do not neces- a mathematical model determining JOËBUJPOJOEJDBUPSTNFOUJPOFEBCPWF TBSJMZSFËFDUUIPTFPGUIF the essential relationship between can be calculated with the Paasche 0SHBOJ[BUJPOIFJTBGÊMJBUFE UIF FOEPHFOPVT JOËBUJPO SBUF BOE and Laspeyres indices, which will to. exogeous determinants. BMTP JOËVFODF UIF FTUJNBUF "T UIBU

FINANCE & THE COMMON GOOD/ BIEN COMMUN 65 shows, any answer to a question to knowledge induction is was concerning an economic fact convincingly argued by Taleb (2010, depends on the methods applied to p. 40), when described the thoughts Quel sera le taux getting that answer. EkJOËBUJPOMkBOO²F of a doomed turkey that took what prochaine ? La réponse 8F DBO ÊOE EFNBOET GPS it had seen of life so far as proof that dépend de la méthode objectivity in many ethical codes it would live forever. Until, that is, de calcul. Les éva- PG DPOEVDU JO ÊOBODJBM TFSWJDFT *O Thanksgiving came along.) luations obtenues de différentes façons sont those from national and international In this essay, I advance a thesis susceptibles de différer bank associations, from supervisory UIBU GVMÊMMJOH TVDI EFNBOET GPS plus que la valeur authorities, and from professional objectivity is impossible. Objectivity moyenne de leur erreur organizations. For instance, Polish is out of the question not because a posteriori. Même une banks have voluntarily agreed to of the malice or greed of the people réponse à la question be bound by the Code of Banking XPSLJOH JO UIF ÊOBODJBM TFDUPS CVU EVUBVYEkJOËBUJPOEF Ethics, which provides that disputes l’année précédente est because an objective or – in other ambiguë, on peut la with clients are resolved “in an words – true viewpoint either does donner en indiquant la objective way” (ZBP 2013, p. 5). not exist or is epistemologically Similarly, the valeur de l’Indice des Code of Ethics and inaccessible. prix à la consommation Standards of Professional Conduct (le CCPP) ou l’Indice published by the CFA Institute It is clear that most of the des prix à la production PCMJHFT ÊOBODJBM BOBMZTUT issues dealt with by the employees (PPI). Ou, au contraire, to “deal fairly and objectively PG UIF ÊOBODJBM TFDUPS BSF OPU utiliser la valeur du matters for philosophical debate. GBDUFVSEFE²ËBUJPO with all clients” (paragraph III.B) du PIB. La valeur de and also “to achieve and maintain For instance, there is an objective chacun des indicateurs independence and objectivity answer to a client’s question about EkJOËBUJPOTVTNFOUJPO - in their professional activities” the commission in a relevant table nés peut être calculée (I.B). Objectivity is mentioned as of fees and commissions. Similarly, avec les indices de principle 2 by the Code of Ethics and there is one mathematical formula Paasche et Laspeyres Professional Responsibility set up by GPSDBMDVMBUJOHUIFQSPÊUPOBEFQPTJU RVJJOËVFODFSPOUBVTTJ UIF$FSUJÊFE'JOBODJBM1MBOOFS#PBSE l’estimation. given its value, maturity, and the of Standards (2016). Being objective interest rate. However, as I intend is also mentioned in the codes of to highlight in this introductory DPOEVDUPGNBOZCBOLTBOEÊOBODJBM section, situations in which an Nous pouvons trouver institutions (cf., for instance, objective answer cannot be reached les exigences d’objec- JPMorgan Chase&Co. 2016). PDDVSNPSFPGUFOJOÊOBODJBMTFSWJDFT tivité dans plusieurs codes de conduite Now, though induction is an than is commonly believed. Below, en matière éthique uncertain source of knowledge, * CSJFËZ SFWJFX UIF QIJMPTPQIJDBM établis tant par des I will take the liberty of claiming sources of the idea of objectivity and associations de banque that objectivity is, if only implicitly, the accessibility of truth and go on internationales que demanded by all ethical codes of to analyze several case studies that nationales, des auto- seem to contradict such a viewpoint. rités de surveillance DPOEVDU FTUBCMJTIFE CZ ÊOBODJBM institutions. (How uncertain a route Finally, I offer a few solutions.

DO THE RIGHT THING: INCENTIVISE ETHICS 66 et des organisations by the practically-oriented sophists professionnelles. Par A Few Words on Philosophy that earned popularity. That is why exemple, le Code science is now seen as an activity d’Ethique et de Normes In ancient Greece, beside the aimed at discovering truth. de Conduite Profes- mainstream philosophers we sionnelle publié par This truth is understood as an l’Institut CFA (2014) recognize today, there were also objective description of reality, oblige les analystes sophists, who – as Sophie’s teacher rather than as something that offers ÊOBODJFST©USBJUFS BQUMZ PCTFSWFE JO UIF ÊDUJPOBMJ[FE models to help deal with the world. de manière équitable introduction to the history of The objective of eternal truth was et objective tous les philosophy, Sophie’s World – established by one of the Socrates’ clients» (paragraphe rejected a huge part of philosophical students, Plato, who believed that III.B) et aussi à deliberations (particularly «atteindre et conser- truth, or – in other words – what ver l’indépendance et metaphysics), because “although science produces, should describe l’objectivité dans leurs answers to philosophical questions eternal ideas rather than a changeable activités profession- may exist, man cannot know the everyday experience. Plato (2000, p. nelles» (I.B). truth about the riddles of nature 220) believed that our experience is Dans cet essai, j’avance and of universe” (Gaarder, 1994, mere illusion, similar to the shades la thèse que satisfaire p. 60). One of the sophists making of reality, of ideas on a wall of the les exigences d’objecti- a living out of teaching Athenians, cave seen by the people held inside. vité est impossible. La raison est qu’un point Protagoras, rightly observed that, for de vue objectif ou – en human beings, “man is the measure Mirroring reality d’autres termes – vrai, of all things.” However, it was not the However, Plato optimistically soit n’existe pas, soit philosophical viewpoint supported assumed that, through rational est épistémologique- Graph1: Plato’s Allegory of the cave. inquiries, we can understand the ment inaccessible. reality which, located in front of the entrance to the cave, casts the shade. Indeed, understanding reality, or, in Les sophistes ont rejeté other words, explaining it, is the main une grande partie des goal of the most popular paradigm débats philosophiques of the philosophy of economics – (particulièrement méta- TDJFOUJÊDSFBMJTN5IJTUSFOEFNFSHFE physiques), parce que in the mid-20 th century in an attempt «bien que les réponses UP SFTQPOE UP UIF TFWFSF EJGÊDVMUJFT aux questions philo-

sophiques puissent faced by the Vienna Circle positivists. exister, on ne peut It was also a response to the success pas connaître la vérité Source: Saenredam J., Plato’s Allegory of the physical sciences. Even though sur les énigmes de la of the cave, http://www.britishmuseum. calling economics a successful science nature et de l’univers». org/research/collection_online/collec- is a risky and questionable thesis, Protagoras a observé tion_object_details/collection_image_ the methodologists of this particular avec justesse que gallery.aspx?partid=1&assetid=2611 discipline seem to be those most «l’homme est la mesure 45001&objectid=1490634 , (CC BY- TVQQPSUJWF PG UIF JEFB PG TDJFOUJÊD de toutes choses ». NC-SA 4.0). Access: 1 March 2016. realism.

FINANCE & THE COMMON GOOD/ BIEN COMMUN 67 According to this approach, which and ontological indeterminism 1 is gets its strongest underpinning from negligible for the purposes of further the work done on the philosophy BSHVNFOU &WFO UIPVHI TDJFOUJÊD of economics by Uskali Mäki realism is the most popular approach (2011), an analytic philosopher among philosophers of economics, La science est mainte- from Helsinki, the primary aim of thinkers interested in other, usually nant considérée comme a scientist is to explain analyzed more successful sciences, do not une activité destinée phenomena. The truth or rightness support this viewpoint (Tegmark, à découvrir la vérité PG UIFPSJFT BOE NPEFMT JT EFÊOFE 1998). comprise en consé- with reference to “essesimilitude”, quence, c’est-à-dire Heterodox approaches comme une descrip- a term coined by Ilkka Niiniluoto tion objective de la (2002), a Finnish philosopher of There are a few alternative réalité au lieu d’offrir science, who attempted to describe philosophical approaches to the des modèles pour aider a model depicting the key (or issue of the truth. Milton Friedman à affronter le monde. essential) aspects of the economic (1953) who developed monetarist Cet objectif de vérité SFBMJUZ .PSFPWFS TDJFOUJÊD SFBMJTUT macroeconomics, supported éternelle a été établi believe that theories and models are instrumentalism. Deidre McCloskey par l’un des élèves de (1983) supported the rhetoric of Socrate, Platon, qui (in general) right in their depiction croyait que la vérité, of unobservable entities. Hence, their economics. Ludwik Fleck (1979) ou – en d’autres termes ontological status is the same as that advocated sociologically grounded – ce que la science proof the reality experienced every day. constructivism. According to duit, devait décrire des In other words, those entities (e.g. the most widely supported idées éternelles plutôt VUJMJUZ GVODUJPOT (%1 BOE QSPÊU interpretation of the essay, The qu’une expérience quo- 2 maximizing companies) exist. methodology of positive economics, tidienne variable. UIF DSFBUPS PG NPOFUBSJTN EFÊOFE *G ZPV BDDFQU TDJFOUJÊD SFBMJTN the truth in an instrumentalist way: you also accept that objectivity those theories and sentences are can be required of the personnel true that make fruitful predictions PG ÊOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT UISPVHI their codes of conduct. According 1 The epistemic indifference is an outcome to this viewpoint, there is only one of our limited knowledge of the mechanisms Selon le réalisme scien- governing the reality or the initial conditions. UJÊRVF MkPCKFDUJGQSF - appropriate description of reality For instance, a roulette game is random for NJFSEkVOTDJFOUJÊRVF or a solution to a problem that we us even though it is governed by the perfectly est d’expliquer les phé- attempt to deal with. deterministic laws of physics. On the contrary, nomènes analysés. Les the ontological determinism constitutes real TDJFOUJÊRVFTS²BMJTUFT That does not hold in two randomness which could not be dismissed even if we possessed all the information. As if croient que les théories cases: (1) if we do not have full knowledge of the facts (even though God played dice. et les modèles sont 2 However, it should be highlighted that it is (en général) exacts. it might possible to gain it, at least one of the most cited and interpreted articles En d’autres termes, les in theory) and (2) if the economic or focused on the methodology of economics, entités invisibles (par ÊOBODJBMSFBMJUZUIBUXFBSFGBDJOHJT which results from Friedman’s unclear style exemple, les fonctions of writing and (supposedly) an attempt to inherently indeterministic. In fact, utilitaires, le PIB (pro- appeal to economists holding various points the difference between the epistemic of view.

DO THE RIGHT THING: INCENTIVISE ETHICS 68 duit intérieur brut) et possible (Friedman, 1953). Similar PG B VOJÊFE UIFPSZ PG FDPOPNJDT JT les entreprises maximi- to a physicist who applies the laws according to Fleck (1979), a strong TBOUMFQSPÊU FYJTUFOU of thermodynamics to analyze the argument in favor of the utilitarian Accepter le réalisme process of coffee cooling down, but EFÊOJUJPOPGUSVUI TDJFOUJÊRVFFOUSB·OF quantum mechanics to describe the l’acceptation d’un point Shedding the light of anti- de vue inscrit dans la movements of caffeine particles in realist philosophies (either the demande d’objectivité his cup, an economist should choose instrumentalist one supported by exigée de la part du among a handful of models depending Milton Friedman or the constructivist personnel des institu- on their utility. However, according one coined by Deidre McCloskey UJPOTÊOBODJ±SFTEBOT to the instrumentalist methodology, and Ludwik Fleck) on the problem leur code de conduite. none of the models is true. They are of truth shows that being objective Selon ce point de vue, just useful in particular situations. is impossible because there is no il y a seulement une Or, to put it differently, models are description appropriée POF ÊYFE USVUI *OTUFBE UIFSF BSF true as long as they are useful. de la réalité. only various theories, methods, and The professor of history of models that deal with the world of economics from Chicago criticized ÊOBODF JO B NPSF PS MFTT TVDDFTTGVM the realist approach and, instead, manner. Therefore, I can only repeat advised that we choose those theories McCloskey (1998),“[t]he best you that are an outcome of a discourse can do, then, is to recommend what among economists. This is because is good for science now, and leave the Contrairement au comparing a theory with God’s future to the gods,” (p 186) because S²BMJTNFTDJFOUJÊRVF Friedman (1953) a mind (the poetical postulation of “man is the measure,” as Protagoras supporté l’instrumen- the correspondence theory of truth) wrote, “of the things that are, that talisme selon lequel ces is virtually impossible (McCloskey, they are, and of the things that are UI²PSJFTFUBGÊSNBUJPOT 1998). Ludwik Fleck (1979), an not, that they are not” (Reale and qui rendent possible early 20 th - century microbiologist (by Catan 1990, p. 157). Below, I provide des prédictions fruc- profession) and philosopher of science several examples from contemporary tueuses, sont vraies/ (for a hobby) analyzed the historical economics, which are faced by people réelles. De façon simi- development of microbiology and XPSLJOHJOUIFÊOBODJBMTFDUPS laire à un physicien qui discovered that the descriptions of applique les lois de la Your Truth and Mine thermodynamique pour the same phenomenon differed over analyser le processus time and depended on previously One of the conclusions drawn de refroidissement du DSFBUFE EFÊOJUJPOT BOE NFUIPET PG by Ludwik Fleck (1979) shows that café et la mécanique measurement. His constructivist results depend on or, to put it more quantique pour décrire point of view, according to which accurately, are the outcome of, les mouvements des theories depend on ways of thinking DPOWFOUJPOBMEFÊOJUJPOTBOETFMFDUFE particules de caféine UIPVHIU TUZMFT DBO CF FYFNQMJÊFE methods. This viewpoint can be best dans sa tasse, un by the thought experiment that I économiste devrait FYFNQMJÊFECZDPNQBSJOHUIFSFTVMUT outlined in the opening section of the choisir parmi quelques of marketing research conducted by modèles en fonction article. The dependence of theoretical Coca-Cola and Pepsi Co. Kanner de leur intérêt. Aucun descriptions on the research methods (1981), in his article for the New York des modèles n’est vrai/ employed, together with the absence Magazine , indicated that the two old

FINANCE & THE COMMON GOOD/ BIEN COMMUN 69 réel. Ils sont seule- competitors had published results, They arithmetically averaged the ment utiles dans des according to which, consumers pace of economic growth for each situations particulières. who had been asked to point to of four buckets of country/year Le fait de projeter la their preferred cola drink tended to observations organised by the level lumière des philoso- choose the product manufactured by phies anti réalistes sur of debt to GDP ratio (less than 30%; le problème de la vérité the sponsor of the marketing survey. 30-60%; 60-90%; over 90%). The montre qu’il est impos- Most of us, educated in the spirit of Harvard economists concluded that sible d’être objectif car the realist philosophy, will defend economic growth is much slower il n’y a pas une seule objectivity and the corresponding when the ratio exceeds 90%. Their vérité immuable. EFÊOJUJPOPGUSVUICZJOEJDBUJOHUIBU conclusion immediately attracted these contradictory results must have attention, being quoted by Paul Ryan, been obtained fraudulently and with the author of the Republican budget, B WJFX UP CPPTUJOH TBMFT BOE QSPÊU and mentioned by several of most It cannot be otherwise. Researchers JOËVFOUJBM QPMJUJDJBOT XPSMEXJEF struggling for truth and objectivity including Angela Merkel, Wolfgang D’après Fleck (1979), do not produce contradictory Schäuble, Oli Rehn, and Manuel les résultats sont le ÊOEJOHT#VU JTUIJTSFBMMZUIFDBTF Barroso. Growth in a Time of Debt GSVJUEFE²ÊOJUJPOT was referred to by Paul Krugman conventionnelles et Contradictory results BTlTVSFMZUIFNPTUJOËVFOUJBM de méthodes choisies. in econometrics economic analysis of recent years”. Par exemple, Kanner (1981) a indiqué que In economics, there are many Three years later, at the peak of les deux vieux concur- cases that seem to undermine such popularity of Reinhart and Rogoff’s rents avaient publié des a sanguine view of truth. One of (2010) paper, Thomas Herndon, a résultats selon lesquels the most vocal and famous cases Ph.D. candidate at the University les consommateurs à of the ‘emerging contrary result’ of Massachusetts, was asked to qui l’on avait demandé phenomenon 3 is the Reinhart-Rogoff d’indiquer leur boisson replicate their analysis. After many controversy. Given that the most préférée au coca ont failed attempts, and having received tendance à choisir le quoted publications are usually the original spreadsheet of data from produit fabriqué par UIF MFBTU SFBE POFT * XJMM CSJFËZ Reinhart and Rogoff, Herndon and le sponsor de l’étude review the two contradictory articles his research mentors Michael Ash de marketing. De tels and have a closer look at their and Robert Pollin (2014) published résultats empiriques ne methodologies. an article that pinned down three sont pas une excep- Five years ago, Carmen Reinhart errors made in the original study: (1) tion, mais une règle. Selon les estimations and Kenneth Rogoff (2010) a non-standard averaging scheme; grossières de Goldfarb published an article that made a lot (2) a failure to include several (1997), approxima- of waves in which they analyzed post-war observations; and (3) a tivement un article their own database covering public miscoded Excel formula that caused économique sur dix est debt and the economic growth of 44 UIFFYDMVTJPOPGÊWFDPVOUSJFTBUUIF en contradiction avec countries and spanning 200 years. start of the alphabet. According to les autres. Un des cas Herndon, Ash, and Pollin (2014), the les plus virulents et 3 According to Robert Goldfarb’s (1997) BEKVTUFEÊOEJOHTHJWFBMUFSFESFTVMUT célèbres du phénomène rough estimates, approximately one in ten articles on economics contradicts the others. public debt does not harm economic

DO THE RIGHT THING: INCENTIVISE ETHICS 70 du « résultat contra- development in a non-linear way. controversy, the controversy is the dictoire émergeant » In spite of commonly held outcome of differing methodological est la controverse de beliefs, a precise analysis of the two preferences, rather than of a miscoded Reinhart-Rogoff. Rein- Excel formula. (Maziarz 2017). hart-Rogoff (2010) et methodologies and other cliometric Herndon Ash et Pollin studies of the issue (cliometrics If one only reads the popular press, (2014) ont donné des being an analysis of economic history one might develop the mistaken belief réponses opposées à la using quantitative methods), show that the Reinhart-Rogoff controversy question de savoir si that only one of the three challenged is an extraordinary case. It certainly des mesures d’austérité garnered considerable attention, but étaient nécessaires. errors (the miscoded Excel formula) there are many econometric disputes 6 La controverse est le is actually an error. On the contrary, résultat de préférences UIF PUIFS UXP EFÊDJFODJFT JEFOUJÊFE similar to the one discussed previously méthodologiques by Herndon, Ash, and Pollin (2014), where – as Ludwik Fleck wrote différentes plutôt que i.e. the averaging method 4 and the BMNPTU B DFOUVSZ BHP o UIF ÊOEJOHT de formules Excel data exclusion 5, should be seen as are determined by a conventionally mal codées. (Maziarz methodological decisions rather than chosen research method. 2017). errors. Considering the negligible Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and JOËVFODFPGUIFTQSFBETIFFUFSSPS VQ Herndon Ash and Pollin (2014) to 0.3 pp) compared with the impact reached different conclusions on the of the two methodological decisions question of whether austerity measures (up to 1.7 pp in the case of choosing are needed. Alberto Alesina and Silvia the averaging scheme), a dispute Ardagna (2009) from the National Un autre exemple Bureau of Economic Research and montrant qu’il n’y a on which of the two conclusions is Jaime Guajardo, Daniel Leigh and pas de connaissance KVTUJÊFETIPVMECFEJTNJTTFE5IPVHI objective en économie I will refrain from choosing a winner Andrea Pescatori (2010) employed est la recherche selon la in the “Growth in a Time of Debt” at the International Monetary Fund cliométrie sur l’hypo- analyzed how government spending thèse de contraction 4 Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) employed a DVUT JOËVFODF UIF FDPOPNZ JO UIF ÊTDBMFFYQBOTJPOOJTUF weighted averaging scheme calculated in two steps. First, they averaged the pace of econo- short term and also had divergent Alberto Alesina et mic growth for each country in every of the ÊOEJOHT )PXFWFS JO UIJT DBTF UIF Silvia Ardagna (2009 four baskets. Second, they calculated four discussion appropriately focused on et Jaime Guajardo, average paces of economic growth for every methodological issues instead of on Daniel Leigh et Andrea basket (i.e. averaged over countries regardless Pescatori (2010) ont of a number of country/year observations). In picking on mistakes and a purposeful analysé comment contrast, Herndon Ash and Pollin (2014) ap- GVEHJOH BOE ËVCCJOH BJNFE BU les coupes dans les plied an unweighted averaging scheme, arith- arriving at the expected result. Their dépenses publiques metically averaging the pace of economic development observed in each of the four baskets. main aim was to attempt to determine JOËVFODFOUMk²DPOP - #PUINFUIPETBSFKVTUJÊFEUPBTJNJMBSEFHSFF whether, as the English proverb says, mie à court terme. Les (for a more detailed analysis, see my recent UIF SPPG TIPVME CF ÊYFE XIJMF UIF deux groupes d’écono- article (Maziarz 2017). mètres américains ont 5 Similarly, excluding the post-war period in 6 To be honest, I believe that theoretical eco- essayé de démontrer a few countries was attributed to the lack of nomics is even more contradictory than the si, comme le proverbe an appropriate estimation of the GDP of Spain FNQJSJDBM CSBODI CVU JU JT OPU NZ ÊFME BOE anglais le dit, le toit and the existence of two divergent estimates hence I limit myself to discussing cases from for New Zealand. FDPOPNFUSJDTBOEÊOBODF

FINANCE & THE COMMON GOOD/ BIEN COMMUN 71 devrait être réparé sun is shining, or, in contrast, the JU BOE BSHVF UIBU ÊTDBM DPOUSBDUJPOT pendant que le soleil roofers should wait till the end of the cause a short-term recession because brille, ou, au contraire, recession. of reduced demand. An important si les réparateurs conclusion for this essay is that both devraient attendre The basic issue in such a research methods are widely accepted among KVTRVk©MBÊOEFMB project is to grasp the timing of the récession. Comme dans spending cuts made by governments. the cliometric fraternity. le cas de la controverse In many cases, the changes in de Reinhart-Rogoff, public debt levels can be attributed An objective medical les constatations sont to other factors, such as a volatile treatment? divergentes, mais la macroeconomic situation, which has Cases such as the expansionary discussion s’est concen- trée de façon adéquate an impact on tax income. Alesina ÊTDBM DPOUSBDUJPO IZQPUIFTJT JO sur les problèmes BOE "SEBHOB JEFOUJÊFE ZFBST which econometricians arrive at méthodologiques au in which tax reforms took place contradictory results because of a lieu de s’en prendre based on an analysis of changes preference for alternative methods, aux erreurs. in the cyclically-adjusted primary are not uncommon. Such problems balance. A team at the IMF employed also surface in the analyses of a divergent methodology, which scientists working in different was based on analyzing government ÊFMET 'PS JOTUBODF JO FBSMZ QBQFST FH PGÊDJBM EPDVNFOUT the Kenyan government decided to Le phénomène de SFQPSUT GSPN ÊOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT ÊOBODF BENJOJTUFSJOH BOUJQBSBTJUJD parvenir à des résultats and international organizations, drugs to school-age children. Miguel contradictoires est-il etc.). The two methods pinpointed and Kremer (2004) investigated this TQ²DJÊRVF©Mk²DPOP - EJGGFSFOU ZFBST BT UIF UJNF PG ÊTDBM initiative. The two econometricians mie? reforms (to be exact, they concurred from Berkley and Harvard, specializing Au début des années only 30% of time), even though the in development economics indicated 1999, le gouvernement question of the timing of spending that, apart from helping to control LFOZBOE²DJEBEFÊOBO - cuts seems to be easy to address as a cer l’administration de the epidemic of parasites, the médicaments antipa- historical fact. program reduced anaemia, improved rasitaires aux enfants On the one hand, of course, the child nutrition and cut school en âge scolaire. Miguel results are to some degree similar. absenteeism (by one-third). Their et Kremer (2004) ont Namely, both studies demonstrate results, published by Econometrica, analysé cette initiative. UIBUÊTDBMSFGPSNTJOWPMWJOHTQFOEJOH CFDPNFWFSZJOËVFOUJBMBOENBEFUIF Les deux économètres cuts and not raising taxes are better World Health Organization advise spécialisés dans l’éco- dosingthe whole population with the nomie du dévelop- for economic development. On the antiparasitic drugs every six months, pement ont indiqué PUIFSIBOE UIFZQSPEVDFDPOËJDUJOH qu’en plus de réduire BOTXFSTUPUIFRVFTUJPOXIFUIFSÊTDBM without prior screening tests. l’épidémie parasitaire, DPOUSBDUJPOTIBWFBQPTJUJWFJOËVFODF Eleven years after the original le programme a limité on economic growth in the short term. research, Aiken et al. (2015) l’anémie, a amélioré la Alesina and Ardagna (2009) support attempted to replicate it. Their results nutrition infantile et UIF jFYQBOTJPOBSZk ÊTDBM DPOUSBDUJPO were published in the International a réduit l’absentéisme hypothesis. In contrast, Guajardo, Journal of Epidemiology. The scolaire (d’un tiers). Leigh, and Pescatori (2010) oppose researchers from the London School

DO THE RIGHT THING: INCENTIVISE ETHICS 72 of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine unethical in the light of the above employed an alternative method arguments? In other words, is the of model estimation and slightly creditor – at the time of conducting SFEFÊOFEUIFUFTUHSPVQT DPOUSPMBOE the analysis (which, according to treated) because, in their opinion, the ethical codes of conduct, should Leurs résultats ont eu the trial was not strictly randomized. be objective) – able to predict that VOFHSBOEFJOËVFODF Aiken et al. (2015), contrary to a mortgage denominated in Swiss au point que l’Organi- UIF FDPOPNFUSJDJBOT XIP ÊSTU francs is likely to become he less sation Mondiale de la analyzed the issue, concluded that optimal product, i.e. more expensive Santé a recommandé de the treatment under consideration than the one denominated in the donner des médica- XBT OPU FGÊDJFOU /BNFMZ UIFZ domestic currency? A few years ago, ments antiparasitaires EJE OPU ÊOE TUBUJTUJDBMMZ TJHOJÊDBOU tous les six mois à when the Swiss franc was cheaper toute la population differences between the two groups (and devaluating) and the interest sans tests de dépistage with regard to anaemic children and rates were much lower, taking out préalables. Des années school absenteeism. These three a foreign currency mortgage was après la recherche cases show that, as Ludwik Fleck NPSFFGÊDJFOU"UUIBUQPJOU JUXBT originale, Aiken et observed in the case of medical considered a better choice even if al. (2015) ont essayé SFTFBSDI UIFÊOEJOHTEFQFOEIFBWJMZ moderate and unfavorable exchange de la reproduire. Les on the methods employed. Thus, rate changes were to occur. As in chercheurs n’ont pas constructing the truth – instead trouvé que la différence the case of calculating how public en ce qui concerne les of discovering it – seems to be the debt might affect economic growth, enfants anémiques et main aim of the researchers. If that what advice should be given to l’absentéisme entre is the case, and if employees in the someone applying for a mortgage les deux groupes était ÊOBODJBM TFDUPS ÊOE UIFNTFMWFT depends on the assumptions used. TUBUJTUJRVFNFOUTJHOJÊ - in situations similar to those dealt In this case, calculating the risks cative. with by academics, the demands of for various foreign exchange rate objectivity cannot be met. distributions may change the The struggle for advice given to a property buyer applying for a mortgage. Of course, objectivity in the from today’s perspective, it is easy financial sector UP SFQSPBDI ÊOBODJBM BEWJTPST GPS Les décisions et In the last few years, Polish underestimating the risk of changes la connaissance bankers have been reproached for in foreign exchange rates. However, dépendent de suppositions et des méthodes offering foreign currency mortgages. a few years ago, say in 2008, when d’évaluation aussi dans Because of unfavourable way in which the Swiss franc was constantly MBÊOBODF"VDPVST DVSSFODZ FYDIBOHF SBUFT ËVDUVBUFE devaluating, almost no one could des dernières années, the value of such loan often exceeded predict how much this currency on a reproché aux ban- the actual value of the property. In would appreciate in the next few quiers polonais d’offrir addition, some of them are likely to years. Behavioral psychologists des hypothèques en turn into bad debt in the near future. coined the term outcome bias to monnaies étrangères. À So, can advising customers to take describe the human tendency to DBVTFEFMBËVDUVBUJPO foreign currency mortgages be called condemn decisions that lead to a bad

FINANCE & THE COMMON GOOD/ BIEN COMMUN 73 (défavorable) des taux outcome without actually considering companies declared bankruptcy and de change, la valeur what those decisions were and why others were nationalized. However, d’un tel prêt a souvent they were made. . even if we assume that there is an dépassé la valeur réelle objective risk of default that can be de la propriété. Dans ce However, there are many other problems where there is no single, assigned to a company X, which has cas, le fait de calculer 7 les risques pour des objective solution. When applying for just applied for a loan, insolvency distributions de taux a mortgage, in addition to choosing is impossible to foresee and any de change variés peut a currency, borrowers ask their guesses or estimates made by the NPEJÊFSMFDPOTFJM ÊOBODJBMBEWJTPSTXIFUIFSBÊYFEPS credit risk analysts vary hugely. donné à un acheteur WBSJBCMFJOUFSFTUSBUFJTNPSFFGÊDJFOU However, sometimes, as was the case de propriété sollici- better, or – simply – cheaper. This KVTU CFGPSF UIF MBTU ÊOBODJBM DSJTJT tant une hypothèque. question also cannot be answered in erupted, though the ratings published Bien sûr, en se basant by rating agencies did not vary much aujourd’hui, il est an objective way. Advisors do not at all, the consistency did not indicate facile de reprocher au have the knowledge to do so. That DPOTFJMMFSÊOBODJFS is, advice given to a loan applicant their accuracy. d’avoir sous-estimé le depends on estimated future The problem of objectively SJTRVFEFËVDUVBUJPO interest rates over the repayment estimating credit risk can be seen des taux de change. period and the risk appetite of the when looking at the differences in ÊOBODJBM BEWJTPSkT DVTUPNFS &WFO FTUJNBUFEGVUVSFHBJOTBOEUIFQSPÊU economists who think such things actually earned by companies. For can be modelled would admit that instance, Barber et al. (2001), in their the forecasts depend strongly on the work, [ Can ] Èbµ½²µ» ²o½» n²» ½}b» methods used and – as is the case prophets?, simulated the strategy of Le problème a aussi XIFOQSFEJDUJOHGVUVSFJOËBUJPOSBUFT buying (or short selling) stock with été expérimenté par the forecasts differ more than their ex- best and worst recommendations plusieurs institutions post error will. There is no one, true produced by security analysts ÊOBODJ±SFTBN²SJDBJOFT answer to such questions. Therefore, applying fundamental analysis. qui ont échoué à éva- the demands of objectivity cannot be According to their calculations, when luer le risque. NFUCZBÊOBODJBMBEWJTPSCFDBVTF JO transaction costs are incorporated, Si nous supposons some cases, objective knowledge is buying undervalued stock and selling qu’il y a un risque objectif de défaut d’une out of reach – as demonstrated by the PWFSWBMVFE TUPDL HFOFSBUFT QSPÊU entreprise X, qui vient cases discussed above. UIBUEPFTOPUTJHOJÊDBOUMZEJGGFSGSPN de demander un prêt, Similarly, from the point of zero. Many researchers analyzed il est impossible d’anti- WJFX PG B ÊOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPO different time periods, markets or the ciper le fait de devenir obtaining objective information is details of trading strategy, and their insolvable et n’importe also impossible. For instance, in conclusions are comparable. quelles suppositions ou estimations faites par PSEFS UP NBLF B QSPÊU ÊOBODJBM 5IFTUSBUFHZPGÊOEJOHPWFSWBMVFE les analystes de risque institutions should estimate credit and undervalued stocks failed de crédit sont haute- risk appropriately. Mistakes and ment différenciées. On negligence in this area resulted in 7 This would imply that our world is perfectly peut comprendre le the major crisis of 2007/2008 when deterministic and none of us, even the CEO problème de l’évalua- TFWFSBM NBKPS ÊOBODJBM TFSWJDFT managing company X, has a free will (Lawson, 1997, p. 29).

DO THE RIGHT THING: INCENTIVISE ETHICS 74 tion objective de risque CFDBVTFÊOBODJBMBOBMZTUT SFGFSSFEUP it is, based on my experience, much de crédit quand on voit by Barber et al. (2001) as “prophets,” more complicated than foreseeing les différences entre GBJMFE UP QSFEJDU UIF GVUVSF QSPÊU the income of a single company. Of l’estimation des gains MFWFMT $POTJEFSJOH UIF FGÊDJFOU course, the risk aversion of a customer GVUVSTFUMFC²O²ÊDF market hypothesis and the fact that TFFLJOH B QJFDF PG ÊOBODJBM BEWJDF effectivement réalisé par les sociétés. Par smaller markets are less likely to be can be measured and professional exemple, Barber et al. FGÊDJFOU JU NJHIU CF CFUUFS UP MPPL help appropriately adjusted. (2001) ont indiqué at an analysis based on the Polish However, such a measurement, qu’en achetant un stock Warsaw Stock Exchange instead based on a psychological test, will sous-évalué et en en of the New York Stock Exchange. not be objective either. Just think vendant un surévalué Kowalke (2015), contrary to Barber of acquiescence bias (e.g. Friborg et H²O±SFVOC²O²ÊDFRVJ et al. (2001), did not analyze whether al., 2006). According to this, people OFEJGG±SFQBTTJHOJÊDB - JUJTQPTTJCMFUPQSPÊUGSPNMJTUFOJOH are more likely to agree with the tivement de zéro. to the fundamental analysts but questions asked in questionnaires compared their predictions (strictly rather than oppose them. Therefore, TQFBLJOH UIFOFUQSPÊUBOEFBSOJOHT BO VOFUIJDBM ÊOBODJBM BEWJTPS XIP before interest and taxes (EBIT)) makes a living out of commissions with the actual data published by GSPNTFMMJOHÊOBODJBMQSPEVDUTDPVME companies. The Polish economist set up a test in a way that reduces GPVOE UIF BDDVSBDZ PG ÊOBODJBM their customers’ risk aversion in D’un côté, selon les analysts’ forecasts was “considerably order to sell, for instance, shares codes de conduites low” . instead of bank deposits and make existant, les gens qui a higher commission. But, even travaillent dans le sec- However, being objective is UFVSÊOBODJFSEFWSBJFOU impossible not only in estimating XJUIPVUÊOEJOHGBVMUXJUIFNQMPZFFT être objectifs et donner risk or the likelihood of insolvency. JO UIF ÊOBODJBM TFDUPS BOE UIBU JT des informations vraies Financial advisors are often confronted not my intention in this essay), it is à leurs clients. De with a question of how to invest the impossible to say which of the scores l’autre, de nombreuses customer’s money. On the one hand, aimed at measuring risk aversion études de cas analysées UIFSFBSFNPSFQSPÊUBCMF BOENPSF based on a handful of options is montrent qu’il y a bien risky) options, such as stock markets objective. des situations aux- and investment funds. On the other, quelles sont confrontés How to Make the Pipe les chercheurs écono- banks offer a safe haven approach to miques, les employés deposits. Of course, the majority of Dream Come True? de banque et les insti- economists point out that the stock On one hand, according to UVUJPOTÊOBODJ±SFTPÁ NBSLFUJTNPSFQSPÊUBCMFJOUIFMPOH existing codes of conduct, people les exigences d’objecti- run. However, how long is the long XPSLJOH JO UIF ÊOBODJBM TFDUPS vité sont impossibles à run? And, as Keynes (1971) wrote should be objective and provide respecter. in A Tract on Monetary Reform, “in La raison n’est pas true information to their customers. the long run we are all dead.” In the l’avidité. Au contraire, On the other hand, several analyzed même lorsqu’on tra- TIPSUUFSN TBZÊWFPSUFOZFBST TUPDL case studies show that there are vaille de bonne foi, être NBSLFU QSPÊUT XJMM EFQFOE PO UIF many situations faced by research objectif est impos- macroeconomic situation. To predict economists and the personnel of

FINANCE & THE COMMON GOOD/ BIEN COMMUN 75 sible car les résultats CBOLT BOE ÊOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT more interesting from an ethical des estimations, les where the demands of objectivity point of view. modèles développés et are impossible to meet. The reason The above considerations lead MFTJOEJDFTÊOBODJFST is not greed or malice on the part of de prédiction ainsi que to the conclusion that the demand UIFÊOBODJBMTFDUPS0OUIFDPOUSBSZ les mesures de risque of being objective or providing dépendent fortement even if they worked in good faith, true information is, in many cases, de suppositions et de being objective is impossible because JNQPTTJCMF UP GVMÊMM BOE UIJT JT méthodes convention- the results of estimations, models and attributed to an epistemic problem. nelles et, assez fré- QSFEJDUFEÊOBODJBMJOEJDFT BTXFMMBT Can we make the pipe dream come quemment, arbitraires. of risk measures, depend heavily on true? And, if yes, how? In order to conventional and, not infrequently, answer these questions, we should arbitrary assumptions and methods. have a closer look at what the Consider, for example, each of demands of objectivity are aimed the following choices: the weighted at. Is it “the love of wisdom” (i.e. averaging scheme preferred by literal translation of the Greek term Puisque le fait de choi- Herndon, Ash and Pollin (2014) or A life without objectivity ĳȚȜȠıȠĳȓĮ sir une des alternatives the unweighted one employed by – philosophia )? Or, in contrast, were ne peut pas avoir lieu Reinhart and Rogoff (2010); one those who penned ethical codes of d’une façon rationnelle of the methods of indicating when conduct – supervisors, bank and (sachant que des argu- governments cut their expenditures ÊOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPO FYFDVUJWFT PS ments tels que «c’est ce based on assessing credit risk, or professional associations – driven by que la plupart des gens font»), il n’y a pas une RVBOUJGZJOH UIF JOËBUJPO SBUF XJUI the desire to safeguard customers’ seule vérité objective. Il the Paasche or Laspeyres formula. interests? Paraphrasing Richard y a seulement des mo- Both are supported by a number of Rorty’s (2009) book title, the truth dèles et des hypothèses arguments and these methodological cannot be mirrored because, as qui sont construits. Les choices create alternative truths. Ludwik Fleck argued, it depends on exigences d’objectivité Since choosing one of the alternatives the methods applied. Hence, various ou le fait de donner cannot be conducted in a rational way analysts, using alternative methods, une information vraie (assuming that arguments such as arrive at different and sometimes sont, dans bien des cas, “this is what most people do” or “it is contrary “truths.” However, I should impossibles à remplir et il faut l’attribuer à une conventionally right” do not convince highlight that the microbiologist used raison épistémique. us), there is no single, objective truth. this word in a way similar to that Est-il possible d’assu- There are only models and hypotheses done by Milton Friedman (1953) to rer les intérêts des that are constructed. Of course, in refer to the high utilitarian value of clients des institutions everyday practice, the employees of a model compared to verisimilitude ÊOBODJ±SFTTBOT²UBCMJS UIFÊOBODJBMTFDUPSNPTUMZEFBMXJUI understood in the realist way. des normes éthiques the situations of a lower epistemic qui sont impossibles à complexity. I certainly do not argue A life without objectivity respecter ? that there is no objective answer Since the viewpoint of people to the question: “what is the euro/ JOUFSFTUFE JO FUIJDT JO ÊOBODF dollar exchange rate now?”, but the despite their philosophical erudition, situations described above are much is closer to the one presented by

DO THE RIGHT THING: INCENTIVISE ETHICS 76 the instrumentalist economist/ Adam Smith (2005) in The Theory of philosopher or the constructivist Moral Sentiments or, on the contrary, microbiologist/philosophers rather QSPÊUGPDVTFE homo economicus as than the realist philosophers (only), described in The Wealth of Nations the second of the above two reasons for (Smith, 2003). Since the latter demanding objectivity is more likely. possibility cannot be eliminated (not À la place des exigences Is it possible to ensure the interests to say that it is more likely based on d’objectivité, les codes PGDVTUPNFSTPGÊOBODJBMJOTUJUVUJPOT common sense), a better solution for de conduite éthique without setting ethical standards that the problem described in the essay is devraient inclure are impossible to meet? Instead of to reform institutions in such a way l’exigence d’agir dans demanding objectivity, ethical codes that the interests of bank clerks and l’intérêt des clients. of conduct should include a demand ÊOBODJBM BEWJTPST BSF BMJHOFE XJUI Cependant il y a deux for acting according to the customers’ those of their customers. E²ÊT©DFUUFBQQSPDIF interest. However, there are two Tout d’abord, même Financial sector personnel should si les banques et les challenges to this approach. not be required to be objective, JOTUJUVUJPOTÊOBODJ±SFT First, even though banks and but should be incentivised in such fournissent des services ÊOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT EFMJWFS VTFGVM a way that their earnings depend utiles, leurs intérêts services, their interests are sometimes PO DVTUPNFSTk QSPÊU JO UIF DBTF PG sont parfois en oppo- at odds with those of the customer. ÊOBODJBMBEWJDF PSPOUIFFGÊDJFODZ sition avec ceux des "QBSU GSPN UIF PCWJPVT DPOËJDUT of their decisions (when, for instance, clients. Ensuite, nous (e.g. banks want their commission estimating creditworthiness). Once ne savons toujours pas si les gens sont des in- to be higher, customers want to see implemented, this approach would dividus guidés par des them lower), there are also a few most likely resolve the problem of principes moraux ou epistemically interesting cases. For the impossible-to-meet demands des homo oeconomicus example, a bank analyst is likely to of objectivity and the provision of DFOUS²TTVSMFQSPÊU"V estimate company’s creditworthiness ‘true’ information. This approach lieu d’exiger l’objecti- in a conservative way in order to would also omit the question of vité, les employés du reduce the risk to the bank. The whether ethical standards shape TFDUFVSÊOBODJFSEF - company’s management, in contrast, human behavior. Reforming the vraient être rémunérés in planning to build a new factory, SFNVOFSBUJPOTZTUFNJOUIFÊOBODJBM de façon à ce que leurs revenus dépendent du will prefer estimates that reduce the sector and removing the demand of C²O²ÊDFEFTDMJFOUTPV interest rate they have to pay on objectivity from ethical codes would EFMkFGÊDBDJU²EFMFVST borrowings. help favor those analytical methods décisions. Second, it is a pity that the and models that would be conducive question of whether codes of conduct to arriving at such results that would should be followed remains open. CFNPTUCFOFÊDJBMGPSCPUIÊOBODJBM Even though a lot of water has passed institutions and their customers. under the bridge, we still do not And these results, according to know if people are individuals driven the terminology coined by Milton by the moral principles described by Friedman and Ludwik Fleck, will be true.

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