Measures of Dispersion
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Applied Biostatistics Mean and Standard Deviation the Mean the Median Is Not the Only Measure of Central Value for a Distribution
Health Sciences M.Sc. Programme Applied Biostatistics Mean and Standard Deviation The mean The median is not the only measure of central value for a distribution. Another is the arithmetic mean or average, usually referred to simply as the mean. This is found by taking the sum of the observations and dividing by their number. The mean is often denoted by a little bar over the symbol for the variable, e.g. x . The sample mean has much nicer mathematical properties than the median and is thus more useful for the comparison methods described later. The median is a very useful descriptive statistic, but not much used for other purposes. Median, mean and skewness The sum of the 57 FEV1s is 231.51 and hence the mean is 231.51/57 = 4.06. This is very close to the median, 4.1, so the median is within 1% of the mean. This is not so for the triglyceride data. The median triglyceride is 0.46 but the mean is 0.51, which is higher. The median is 10% away from the mean. If the distribution is symmetrical the sample mean and median will be about the same, but in a skew distribution they will not. If the distribution is skew to the right, as for serum triglyceride, the mean will be greater, if it is skew to the left the median will be greater. This is because the values in the tails affect the mean but not the median. Figure 1 shows the positions of the mean and median on the histogram of triglyceride. -
Random Variables and Applications
Random Variables and Applications OPRE 6301 Random Variables. As noted earlier, variability is omnipresent in the busi- ness world. To model variability probabilistically, we need the concept of a random variable. A random variable is a numerically valued variable which takes on different values with given probabilities. Examples: The return on an investment in a one-year period The price of an equity The number of customers entering a store The sales volume of a store on a particular day The turnover rate at your organization next year 1 Types of Random Variables. Discrete Random Variable: — one that takes on a countable number of possible values, e.g., total of roll of two dice: 2, 3, ..., 12 • number of desktops sold: 0, 1, ... • customer count: 0, 1, ... • Continuous Random Variable: — one that takes on an uncountable number of possible values, e.g., interest rate: 3.25%, 6.125%, ... • task completion time: a nonnegative value • price of a stock: a nonnegative value • Basic Concept: Integer or rational numbers are discrete, while real numbers are continuous. 2 Probability Distributions. “Randomness” of a random variable is described by a probability distribution. Informally, the probability distribution specifies the probability or likelihood for a random variable to assume a particular value. Formally, let X be a random variable and let x be a possible value of X. Then, we have two cases. Discrete: the probability mass function of X specifies P (x) P (X = x) for all possible values of x. ≡ Continuous: the probability density function of X is a function f(x) that is such that f(x) h P (x < · ≈ X x + h) for small positive h. -
Calculating Variance and Standard Deviation
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION Recall that the range is the difference between the upper and lower limits of the data. While this is important, it does have one major disadvantage. It does not describe the variation among the variables. For instance, both of these sets of data have the same range, yet their values are definitely different. 90, 90, 90, 98, 90 Range = 8 1, 6, 8, 1, 9, 5 Range = 8 To better describe the variation, we will introduce two other measures of variation—variance and standard deviation (the variance is the square of the standard deviation). These measures tell us how much the actual values differ from the mean. The larger the standard deviation, the more spread out the values. The smaller the standard deviation, the less spread out the values. This measure is particularly helpful to teachers as they try to find whether their students’ scores on a certain test are closely related to the class average. To find the standard deviation of a set of values: a. Find the mean of the data b. Find the difference (deviation) between each of the scores and the mean c. Square each deviation d. Sum the squares e. Dividing by one less than the number of values, find the “mean” of this sum (the variance*) f. Find the square root of the variance (the standard deviation) *Note: In some books, the variance is found by dividing by n. In statistics it is more useful to divide by n -1. EXAMPLE Find the variance and standard deviation of the following scores on an exam: 92, 95, 85, 80, 75, 50 SOLUTION First we find the mean of the data: 92+95+85+80+75+50 477 Mean = = = 79.5 6 6 Then we find the difference between each score and the mean (deviation). -
4. Descriptive Statistics
4. Descriptive statistics Any time that you get a new data set to look at one of the first tasks that you have to do is find ways of summarising the data in a compact, easily understood fashion. This is what descriptive statistics (as opposed to inferential statistics) is all about. In fact, to many people the term “statistics” is synonymous with descriptive statistics. It is this topic that we’ll consider in this chapter, but before going into any details, let’s take a moment to get a sense of why we need descriptive statistics. To do this, let’s open the aflsmall_margins file and see what variables are stored in the file. In fact, there is just one variable here, afl.margins. We’ll focus a bit on this variable in this chapter, so I’d better tell you what it is. Unlike most of the data sets in this book, this is actually real data, relating to the Australian Football League (AFL).1 The afl.margins variable contains the winning margin (number of points) for all 176 home and away games played during the 2010 season. This output doesn’t make it easy to get a sense of what the data are actually saying. Just “looking at the data” isn’t a terribly effective way of understanding data. In order to get some idea about what the data are actually saying we need to calculate some descriptive statistics (this chapter) and draw some nice pictures (Chapter 5). Since the descriptive statistics are the easier of the two topics I’ll start with those, but nevertheless I’ll show you a histogram of the afl.margins data since it should help you get a sense of what the data we’re trying to describe actually look like, see Figure 4.2. -
Annex : Calculation of Mean and Standard Deviation
Annex : Calculation of Mean and Standard Deviation • A cholesterol control is run 20 times over 25 days yielding the following results in mg/dL: 192, 188, 190, 190, 189, 191, 188, 193, 188, 190, 191, 194, 194, 188, 192, 190, 189, 189, 191, 192. • Using the cholesterol control results, follow the steps described below to establish QC ranges . An example is shown on the next page. 1. Make a table with 3 columns, labeled A, B, C. 2. Insert the data points on the left (column A). 3. Add Data in column A. 4. Calculate the mean: Add the measurements (sum) and divide by the number of measurements (n). Mean= ∑ x +x +x +…. x 3809 = 190.5 mg/ dL 1 2 3 n N 20 5. Calculate the variance and standard deviation: (see formulas below) a. Subtract each data point from the mean and write in column B. b. Square each value in column B and write in column C. c. Add column C. Result is 71 mg/dL. d. Now calculate the variance: Divide the sum in column C by n-1 which is 19. Result is 4 mg/dL. e. The variance has little value in the laboratory because the units are squared. f. Now calculate the SD by taking the square root of the variance. g. The result is 2 mg/dL. Quantitative QC ● Module 7 ● Annex 1 A B C Data points. 2 xi −x (x −x) X1-Xn i 192 mg/dL 1.5 2.25 mg 2/dL 2 188 mg/dL -2.5 6.25 mg 2/dL2 190 mg/dL -0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 190 mg/dL -0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 189 mg/dL -1.5 2.25 mg 2/dL2 191 mg/dL 0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 188 mg/dL -2.5 6.25 mg 2/dL2 193 mg/dL 2.5 6.25 mg 2/dL2 188 mg/dL -2.5 6.25 mg 2/dL2 190 mg/dL -0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 191 mg/dL 0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 194 mg/dL 3.5 12.25 mg 2/dL2 194 mg/dL 3.5 12.25 mg 2/dL2 188 mg/dL -2.5 6.25 mg 2/dL2 192 mg/dL 1.5 2.25 mg 2/dL2 190 mg/dL -0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 189 mg/dL -1.5 2.25 mg 2/dL2 189 mg/dL -1.5 2.25 mg 2/dL2 191 mg/dL 0.5 0.25 mg 2/dL2 192 mg/dL 1.5 2.25 mg 2/dL2 2 2 2 ∑x=3809 ∑= -1 ∑ ( x i − x ) Sum of Col C is 71 mg /dL 2 − 2 ∑ (X i X) 2 SD = S = n−1 mg/dL SD = S = 71 19/ = 2mg / dL The square root returns the result to the original units . -
Descriptive Statistics
Statistics: Descriptive Statistics When we are given a large data set, it is necessary to describe the data in some way. The raw data is just too large and meaningless on its own to make sense of. We will sue the following exam scores data throughout: x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7, x8, x9, x10 45, 67, 87, 21, 43, 98, 28, 23, 28, 75 Summary Statistics We can use the raw data to calculate summary statistics so that we have some idea what the data looks like and how sprad out it is. Max, Min and Range The maximum value of the dataset and the minimum value of the dataset are very simple measures. The range of the data is difference between the maximum and minimum value. Range = Max Value − Min Value = 98 − 21 = 77 Mean, Median and Mode The mean, median and mode are measures of central tendency of the data (i.e. where is the center of the data). Mean (µ) The mean is sum of all values divided by how many values there are N 1 X 45 + 67 + 87 + 21 + 43 + 98 + 28 + 23 + 28 + 75 xi = = 51.5 N i=1 10 Median The median is the middle data point when the dataset is arranged in order from smallest to largest. If there are two middle values then we take the average of the two values. Using the data above check that the median is: 44 Mode The mode is the value in the dataset that appears most. Using the data above check that the mode is: 28 Standard Deviation The standard deviation (σ) measures how spread out the data is. -
AP Statistics Chapter 7 Linear Regression Objectives
AP Statistics Chapter 7 Linear Regression Objectives: • Linear model • Predicted value • Residuals • Least squares • Regression to the mean • Regression line • Line of best fit • Slope intercept • se 2 • R 2 Fat Versus Protein: An Example • The following is a scatterplot of total fat versus protein for 30 items on the Burger King menu: The Linear Model • The correlation in this example is 0.83. It says “There seems to be a linear association between these two variables,” but it doesn’t tell what that association is. • We can say more about the linear relationship between two quantitative variables with a model. • A model simplifies reality to help us understand underlying patterns and relationships. The Linear Model • The linear model is just an equation of a straight line through the data. – The points in the scatterplot don’t all line up, but a straight line can summarize the general pattern with only a couple of parameters. – The linear model can help us understand how the values are associated. The Linear Model • Unlike correlation, the linear model requires that there be an explanatory variable and a response variable. • Linear Model 1. A line that describes how a response variable y changes as an explanatory variable x changes. 2. Used to predict the value of y for a given value of x. 3. Linear model of the form: 6 The Linear Model • The model won’t be perfect, regardless of the line we draw. • Some points will be above the line and some will be below. • The estimate made from a model is the predicted value (denoted as yˆ ). -
Measures of Central Tendency & Dispersion
Measures of Central Tendency & Dispersion Measures that indicate the approximate center of a distribution are called measures of central tendency. Measures that describe the spread of the data are measures of dispersion. These measures include the mean, median, mode, range, upper and lower quartiles, variance, and standard deviation. A. Finding the Mean The mean of a set of data is the sum of all values in a data set divided by the number of values in the set. It is also often referred to as an arithmetic average. The Greek letter (“mu”) is used as the symbol for population mean and the symbol ̅ is used to represent the mean of a sample. To determine the mean of a data set: 1. Add together all of the data values. 2. Divide the sum from Step 1 by the number of data values in the set. Formula: ∑ Example: Consider the data set: 17, 10, 9, 14, 13, 17, 12, 20, 14 ∑ The mean of this data set is 14. B. Finding the Median The median of a set of data is the “middle element” when the data is arranged in ascending order. To determine the median: 1. Put the data in order from smallest to largest. 2. Determine the number in the exact center. i. If there are an odd number of data points, the median will be the number in the absolute middle. ii. If there is an even number of data points, the median is the mean of the two center data points, meaning the two center values should be added together and divided by 2. -
1 Lecture.5 Measures of Dispersion
Lecture.5 Measures of dispersion - Range, Variance -Standard deviation – co-efficient of variation - computation of the above statistics for raw and grouped data Measures of Dispersion The averages are representatives of a frequency distribution. But they fail to give a complete picture of the distribution. They do not tell anything about the scatterness of observations within the distribution. Suppose that we have the distribution of the yields (kg per plot) of two paddy varieties from 5 plots each. The distribution may be as follows Variety I 45 42 42 41 40 Variety II 54 48 42 33 30 It can be seen that the mean yield for both varieties is 42 kg but cannot say that the performances of the two varieties are same. There is greater uniformity of yields in the first variety whereas there is more variability in the yields of the second variety. The first variety may be preferred since it is more consistent in yield performance. Form the above example it is obvious that a measure of central tendency alone is not sufficient to describe a frequency distribution. In addition to it we should have a measure of scatterness of observations. The scatterness or variation of observations from their average are called the dispersion. There are different measures of dispersion like the range, the quartile deviation, the mean deviation and the standard deviation. Characteristics of a good measure of dispersion An ideal measure of dispersion is expected to possess the following properties 1. It should be rigidly defined 2. It should be based on all the items. -
The Standard Deviation Is the Most Commonly Used Measure for Variability
Standard Deviation and Variance The standard deviation is the most commonly used measure for variability. This measure is related to the distance between the observations and the mean. For example, suppose we have the following range of numbers: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 100. The mean is 55 ((10 + 20 + 30 …. + 100) / 10). How can the variability around the mean be best defined? Taking all distances from the mean together is inappropriate as this would result in the range: -45 (= 10 – 55), -35, -25, -15, -5, 5, 15, 25, 35 and 45. The sum of this range is always 0, which of course is not informative of the variability. It is more appropriate to turn all distances into absolute distances (that is, multiplying the negative numbers by -1). The sum then amounts to 250 (45 + 35 + 25 + 15 + 5 + 5 + 15 + 25 + 35 + 45). This sum, divided by the number of observations, yields the mean distance: 250 / 10 = 25. However, this absolute measure is not often used because it does not relate well to inferential statistics (see chapter 3). Another strategy is to sum the squared distances (a negative score turns positive when squared). This results in a sum of 8250 (= -452 + -352 + -252 + -152 + -52 + 52 + 152 + 252 + 352 + 452 = 2025 + 1225 + 625 + 225 + 25 + 25 + 225 + 625 + 1225 + 2025). By dividing this sum by the number of observations (10), the average squared distance to the mean equals 825. In statistics, this number is known as the variance. The variance can be compared to the area of a square (see Figure 2.20) Sides = 28.72 Area = 28.72 * 28.72 = 825 Figure 2.20 Variance Compared to the Area of a Square In statistics, the measure of variability is preferably indicated as a distance instead of a squared distance (i.e., a square). -
1 Computing the Standard Deviation of Sample Means
1 Computing the Standard Deviation of Sample Means Quality control charts are based on sample means not on individual values within a sample. A sample is a group of items, which are considered all together for our analysis. Items within a sample lose their individual characteristics in the analysis. Rather a summary statistic, e.g. sample mean, is used to represent the information in the sample. See the examples of samples below: 1. A section of BA3352 students in the current semester is a sample of students. Then the sample size is the number of students in the section. Different sections constitute different samples. The number of sections offered in the current semester would be the number of samples. 2. Voters surveyed by a given polling agency on a single day is a sample. The sample size is the number of voters surveyed on that particular day. Polls made on different days constitute different samples. The number of the polls is the number of samples. 3. Customers buying a particular brand of perfume over a specified month can be considered as a sample. The sample size is the number of customers buying the perfume over the specified month. Another sample can be generated by considering customers buying another brand of perfume. If we consider four brands of perfumes, we end up with four samples. The number of samples and the sample size can potentially be confusing. Sample size is the number of items within a group. Number of samples is the number of groups. Example 1: After a midterm exam for a course that is given to five sections of a course, the average exam gradex ¯j in section j is computed and reported below. -
Simple Linear Regression 80 60 Rating 40 20
Simple Linear 12 Regression Material from Devore’s book (Ed 8), and Cengagebrain.com Simple Linear Regression 80 60 Rating 40 20 0 5 10 15 Sugar 2 Simple Linear Regression 80 60 Rating 40 20 0 5 10 15 Sugar 3 Simple Linear Regression 80 60 Rating 40 xx 20 0 5 10 15 Sugar 4 The Simple Linear Regression Model The simplest deterministic mathematical relationship between two variables x and y is a linear relationship: y = β0 + β1x. The objective of this section is to develop an equivalent linear probabilistic model. If the two (random) variables are probabilistically related, then for a fixed value of x, there is uncertainty in the value of the second variable. So we assume Y = β0 + β1x + ε, where ε is a random variable. 2 variables are related linearly “on average” if for fixed x the actual value of Y differs from its expected value by a random amount (i.e. there is random error). 5 A Linear Probabilistic Model Definition The Simple Linear Regression Model 2 There are parameters β0, β1, and σ , such that for any fixed value of the independent variable x, the dependent variable is a random variable related to x through the model equation Y = β0 + β1x + ε The quantity ε in the model equation is the “error” -- a random variable, assumed to be symmetrically distributed with 2 2 E(ε) = 0 and V(ε) = σ ε = σ (no assumption made about the distribution of ε, yet) 6 A Linear Probabilistic Model X: the independent, predictor, or explanatory variable (usually known).