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Working with Slides Russia Investment Banking Review First Nine Months 2019 Refinitiv Deals Intelligence 1 QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS HIGHLIGHTS M&A FEES UP 151% M&A TOP FINANCIAL ADVISOR YTD ECM FEES UP 461% Citi DCM FEES DOWN -12% ECM TOP BOOK RUNNER YTD Goldman Sachs & Co LOAN FEES DOWN -30% DCM TOP BOOK RUNNER YTD ANY INV. M&A DOWN -33% VTB Capital TARGET M&A DOWN -35% M&A TOP TARGETED INDUSTRY ECM PROCEEDS UP 301% Industrials DCM PROCEEDS UP 1% DCM TOP ISSUING ECM TOP ISSUING Click on any of the above arrows to INDUSTRY INDUSTRY go straight to the analysis. Financials Materials CLICK BELOW TO SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTERS, PURCHASE CUSTOMIZED DATA OR FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA: 2 REPORT SUMMARY INVESTMENT BANKING FEES Russian investment banking fees reached an estimated US$239.5 million during the first nine months of 2019, 46% more than the value recorded during the same period in 2018. Fees generated from completed M&A transactions reached a five-year high of US$76.5 million, up 151% year-on-year, while equity capital markets fees hit a two-year high of US$63.7 million. Debt capital markets underwriting fees totalled US$65.4 million, down 12% from the first nine months of 2018 and a three-year low. Syndicated lending fees declined 30% year- on-year to a four-year low of US$33.9 million. Debt capital markets fees accounted for 27% of the overall Russian investment banking fee pool, down from 45% during the first nine months of 2018. Syndicated lending fees accounted for 14% while the share of completed M&A advisory fees increased to 32%, the highest level in five years. Equity capital markets underwriting fees accounted for 27%. VTB Capital earned the most investment banking fees in Russia during the first nine months of 2019, a total of US$44.1 million for an 18% share of the total fee pool. MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS The value of announced M&A transactions with any Russian involvement reached US$11.6 billion during the first nine months of 2019, a third less than the value recorded during the same period in 2018 and the second lowest year-to-date total in the last decade. Deals with a Russian target fell 35% year-on-year to US$8.5 billion as inbound deals declined 39% and domestic M&A dropped 32%. Russian outbound M&A reached just US$809.9 million, a 32% decline from last year. Deals in the industrial sector accounted for 22% of Russian target M&A by value, followed by High Technology with a 17% share. With advisory work on six deals worth a combined US$2.8 billion, Citi took the top spot in the financial advisor ranking for deals with any Russian involvement during the first nine months of 2019, up from 6th place at this time last year. Credit Suisse followed in second position with US$2.6 billion. EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS Russian equity and equity-related issuance totalled US$1.9 billion during the first nine months of 2019, up from US$483.6 million during the same period in 2018. With US$1.7 billion, follow-on offerings account for 87% of activity, while a single initial public offering accounts for the remaining 13%. Russian recruitment company HeadHunter Group raised US$253 million when it listed on Nasdaq in May. Goldman Sachs led the Russian equity capital markets ranking during the first nine months of 2019, controlling 40% of the market by share, followed by VTB Capital with 18%. DEBT CAPITAL MARKETS Debt issuance in Russia totalled US$22.9 billion during the first nine months of 2019, up 1% from the same period in 2018. Bonds issued by companies in the Financial sector accounted for 33% of issuance, while government & agency bonds accounted for 32%. VTB Capital topped the Russian DCM underwriting league table during the first nine months of 2019, with a 42% market share. 3 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS INVESTMENT BANKING FEES PAGE INVESTMENT BAKING FEES VOLUMES TOP FEE PAYING INDUSTRIES YTD Fees Annual Fees • Outer Rim: YTD 1,400 • Inner Rim: YTDLY 1,200 1,000 21% 800 30% 13% 600 US$Million 28% 400 12% 200 14% 0 14% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19% 7% 14% INVESTMENT BAKING FEES BY ASSET CLASS 12% 16% BONDS EQUITY LOANS MA 500 450 400 Financials Industrials 350 Energy and Power Government and Agencies 300 250 Materials Other 200 US$Million 150 100 50 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS PAGE ANY INVOLVEMENT M&A VOLUMES & NUMBER OF DEALS TOP TARGETED INDUSTRIES YTD Volumes Rest of Year Volumes #Deals • Outer Rim: YTD 160,000 3,000 • Inner Rim: YTDLY 140,000 2,500 120,000 2,000 100,000 22% 22% 4% 2% 80,000 1,500 US$Million 60,000 1,000 27% 40,000 43% 500 20,000 8% 0 - 17% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2% 22% TARGET M&A VOLUMES & NUMBER OF DEALS 15% YTD Volumes Rest of Year Volumes #Deals 16% 140,000 2,500 120,000 2,000 Industrials Materials 100,000 High Technology Real Estate 1,500 80,000 Retail Other 60,000 1,000 US$Million 40,000 500 20,000 0 - 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS PAGE INBOUND M&A DOMESTIC M&A OUTBOUND M&A Inbound M&A down -39% from YTD last year, Domestic M&A down -32% from YTD last year, Outbound M&A down -32% from YTD last year, accounting for $3,369.8 Million so far this year. accounting for $5,175.9 Million so far this year. accounting for $809.9 Million so far this year. YTD Volumes Rest of Year Volumes #Deals YTD Volumes Rest of Year Volumes #Deals YTD Volumes Rest of Year Volumes #Deals 30,000 450 90,000 1,600 20,000 100 400 80,000 1,400 18,000 90 25,000 70,000 16,000 80 350 1,200 14,000 70 20,000 300 60,000 1,000 12,000 60 250 50,000 15,000 800 10,000 50 200 40,000 8,000 40 US$Million US$Million US$Million 600 10,000 150 30,000 6,000 30 400 100 20,000 4,000 20 5,000 200 50 10,000 2,000 10 0 - 0 - 0 - 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 6 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS PAGE TARGET M&A VOLUMES BY DEAL SIZE X < US$500 US$500m to US$1Bn US$1Bn to US$5Bn X > US$5Bn 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 US$Million 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 YTD TARGET MID-MARKET M&A X < US$500 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 US$Million 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS PAGE ANY INVOLVEMENT M&A TOP DEALS YTD Value Status Rank Date Target Name Target Nation Target Industry Acquiror Name Acquiror Nation Target Financial Advisor Acquiror Financial Advisor ($Mil) Guggenheim Securities LLC 1,971.4 Completed 1/7/2019 Luxoft Holding Inc Switzerland High Technology DXC Technology Co United States Credit Suisse Group Bank of America Merrill Lynch 1,160.0 Completed 1/25/2019 Kekh eKommerts OOO Russian Fed High Technology OLX Global BV South Africa Deloitte & Touche Citi Lukoil Upstream Congo Evercore Partners 800.0 Completed 6/6/2019 New Age M12 Hldg Ltd-Marine Rep of Congo Energy and Power Russian Fed Sau Bank of America Merrill Lynch 653.0 Completed 4/1/2019 Lenta Ltd Russian Fed Retail Severgroup OOO Russian Fed JP Morgan Citigroup Global Markets Ltd 600.2 Completed 7/4/2019 PIK Group OJSC Russian Fed Industrials Bank VTB PAO Russian Fed VTB Capital 599.0 Completed 4/1/2019 Lenta Ltd Russian Fed Retail Severgroup OOO Russian Fed Credit Suisse Group Citigroup Global Markets Ltd Consumer Products 555.6 Pending 6/22/2019 TransFin-M OJSC Russian Fed TFM-Garant AO Russian Fed and Services 543.7 Completed 2/14/2019 Novorossiysk Grain Plant PJSC Russian Fed Industrials Demetra 1 OOO Russian Fed 425.0 Completed 4/5/2019 Nitrokhimprom OOO Russian Fed Industrials SUEK JSC Cyprus 400.1 Completed 4/3/2019 Uralkali PJSC Russian Fed Materials Rinsoco Trading Co Ltd British Virgin 8 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS PAGE ECM PROCEEDS TOP ISSUING INDUSTRIES YTD Proceeds Annual Proceeds 40,000 YTD Proceeds 35,000 1,800 1,600 30,000 1,400 25,000 1,200 20,000 1,000 US$Million 15,000 800 US$Million 600 10,000 400 5,000 200 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Materials Consumer Products and Industrials Services ECM PROCEEDS BY ISSUE TYPE IPO Follow-On Convertible 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 US$Million 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 9 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS DEBT CAPITAL MARKETS PAGE DCM PROCEEDS TOP ISSUING INDUSTRIES YTD Proceeds Annual Proceeds YTD Proceeds YTDLY Proceeds YoY Proceeds Change (%) 80,000 8,000 60% 7,000 70,000 39% 40% 6,000 25% 27% 60,000 20% 50,000 5,000 6% 0% -4% 4,000 40,000 -20% US$Million 3,000 US$Million 30,000 -40% 2,000 20,000 -58% 1,000 -60% 10,000 0 -80% 0 Financials Government and Industrials Energy and Materials Other 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Agencies Power DCM PROCEEDS BY ISSUE TYPE Agency, Supranational, Sovereign Investment Grade Corporate MBS ABS Federal Credit Agency High Yield Corporate 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 US$Million 20,000 10,000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 10 BACK TO RUSSIA HIGHLIGHTS EQUITY & DEBT CAPITAL MARKETS TOP DEALS PAGE ECM TOP DEALS YTD Proceeds Primary Issue Date Issuer Industry Mid Industry Issue Type ($ mil) Exchange 3/13/2019 552.8 MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC Materials Metals & Mining Follow-On RTS 6/28/2019 400.1 NLMK Materials Metals & Mining Follow-On LONDN 4/4/2019 389.5 Polyus PJSC Materials Metals & Mining Follow-On MXRTS 7/10/2019 255.5 Polymetal International PLC Materials Metals & Mining Follow-On LONDN 5/8/2019 253.1 Headhunter Grp Plc Consumer Products and Services Employment Services IPO NASDQ DCM TOP DEALS YTD Proceeds Issue Date Issuer Industry Mid Industry Issue Type Currency ($ mil) 3/21/2019 3,879.0 Minfin Government and Agencies National Government Agency, Supranational, Sovereign U.S.
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