5/16/80

Folder Citation: Collection: Office of Staff Secretary; Series: Presidential Files; Folder: 5/16/80; Container 162

To See Complete Finding Aid: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/library/findingaids/Staff_Secretary.pdf WITHDRAWAL SHEET (PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARIES) FORM OF CORRESPONDENTS OR TITLE DATE RESTRICTION DOCUMENT

2l..2'n ,.... .c ""'' , ''"''co1-. u M:. �-.,....; ...:1 • .._� ru ,.., __£ c:: + ,. + "' • .cable wfat1 -� 5 I 13 I 8 o A �·�. fte: Meeting at the Kreml±Tt• (13 P't":t­

J I ' l/!?!& 0 jc,...I(Ac � �I "' " . � ·t/t..C-/1£- J_/ 1.? i memo . w I at.t, Pet!er 'faLnoff to £Ligniew Brze:zdfisJ�i-. 5116180 A Re. Calr on PLesiaent b:y .formeF EEiJyptian 0 .,... _,.,._' u. .t:: ...._,_ ,' .I .., ,._.._..._,,.� .. �-�..._ ..._��-.._ •·����.._._. .L'\.UCl.L.L.Lo \'-.1.:-J.:- ""

tt'(Jo.t.d fer t.4c !VLS:-�.. /J.....C• )..r� J.7, I J 3 !l/171/J

,,

··, .�

FILE LOCATION Carter Presid�ntial Papers- Staff. Offices,. Office of Staff Sec.­ Pres. Handwriting File·, "5/16180." Box 186

RESTRICTION CODES

(AI Closed by Executive Order 12356'governing access to national security information. (B) Closed by statute or by the agency which originated the document. (C) Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in the donor's deed of gift.

NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND REC�RDS .ADMI�ISTRATION NA FORM 1429 (6-85) THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 15, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT �

FROM: JACK WATSO

SUBJECT:

Yesterday, 5,601 persons seeking asylum from Cuba arrived in Key West; it was largest single-day's total to date. 3 deaths, from carbon monoxide poisoning, were reported among the arrivals. All 3 occurred on one overloaded boat. 10 people have now died in the exodus over the last three weeks.

As of 6:00 p.m. today, 2,618 persons had arrived, bringing the cumulative total to about 46,000. The Coast Guard reports that there are 32 vessels northbound carrying approxi­ mately 1,250 persons. Only 8 southbound vessels have been sighted today. Although it is too early to reach any firm conclusions about the effects of your announcement yesterday, this southbound figure is considerably less than the average daily southbound flow in the past week, which was 76.

The FBI reported this morning that there are still about 1400 vessels in Marie! Harbor and approximately 10,000 people awaiting transportation to the United States.

Gene Eidenberg, who is in Miami, reported to me late this afternoon that there is a "continuing and steady" improvement in the reaction of the Cuban/American community to yesterday's announcement. Gene will stay in Miami tonight and tomorrow morning and then go to Tallahassee to meet with Governor Graham tomorrow afternoon.

Since yesterday's announcements:

The Family Registration Office opened in Miami today. Several thousand people came to register their family members still in Cuba. (Estimates of the number of people range from 8 - 10 thousand.) We are placing simple forms to be filled out with relevant information in local newspapers and Cuban shopping areas to alleviate the crush at the Registry Offices. The forms (in both English and Spanish) are to be mailed to a P. 0. Box in Miami.

E�sctrost<111tBc Ccpy M�de fc!l' Pre!Sti<1W'Wxti�Jiri m·p�:.Mils �: �: .

'.(',

-2-

A�lboat :-to begi:r;1 .the sealift has been contracted for_, FEMA •s: 'use and will arrive in Key West tonight prepai:e4--�o .· '.le:!ave immediately. ·-' ' ... . � . � G . �..:.. ' he-. coa�t ua�d also.· reports that, aalthough the ·-.Cuban Gov:ernmerit·::is··'-apparently attempting to . .. . -.·jam th·e· marine.· frequ-ency r-.:· radio -colninunication advising . 'boats. in Marier.,to· return ·to'· the .United' States', . wi thouf .:Passengers'', reports 'from' persons returning .. tc>' K�y we·st indicate thae the ·message is getting

th��:nigh:on corriinercial channels. -·. ' There are :i.mcon­ 'firmed reports_that.the Cuban government is not

permittirig vessels to. le'ave · Mariel without refugees.

Customs officials seized 47 boats between 10:00p.m. last night· and 4:00p.m. this afternoon.

Gene, in Florida, and I, from Washington, have been going an extensive amount of press briefing (print, radio and television) explain�ng your decisions of yesterday and how they are being executed. As you know, the public information aspect of this whole effort is crucial.

I have asked Benjamin Civiletti to assume r,esponsibility for coordinating the overall law enforcement effort, including not on�y Justice Department agencies, but Customs and Coast Guard as well. I've asked Ben to hold conference calls early each morning and late each afternoon with the appropriate headquarters .and operations personnel to ensure the necessary levels of information-exchange and coordination of effort. Ben is reporting the results of those calls to me each morning and afternoon. . There have been exten­ sive briefings of the operational peopl:e:!.in the field regarding your instructions, and all reports so far indicate proper executi6n.

Rese.tt·lernent is moving slowly. . We have resettled approximately 1�.,9-00.'people out of the 46,000who have ar'ri'yed�·;.I·�et this II\Ornin<}·-�ith V:ictor Palrn;ieri and tpe,_·ca��ei:: Fore�g� Se.rvice -Officer who is coordinating our ..resettlei:nent·ef£6rts .with the voiurit?tr:Y.'Agencies. When I have· the' inf_orinati�on r ieque,sted this'- morning,· I shall give you a separate.;mernori:mdurn .··on the res'ettlement- problems' il1cluding my- best estimates of our overaJF res�ttlernent prospects and time frames. .

· ' · . '� .: '. . . ·.•. '· : . '· , ( ...... ·. . · ·'.· ,- � .. . : • .; ' · \ . · . · - _, -�· :< _�,:� ,.· : , ' ...... ·' . . . . - .' •.·. '' ? . :-'3- �_-_,_·-. ,. '' . .. ' . �' ' .

. -� �. j' : <":. ·:· Fdr.t:.c:fl'affee wi·ii�:Probably reach its· capacity this weekend or,:;·ea:rly next- week:.·:� Fort.,Ihd;i�antowri Gap in' Pennsylvania is.o':the next fabilit'y to :be·:l)r_ought:on-line- with a capacity

of·t:.2o I 000. * I already '•have, 'the j'orne;:recoimnendation; of; DoD i ·,GSA, and FEMA regarding th�' n_ext.- rnost.. 'sti.itable sit'e,- but· have -,not yet given the order to begin bring_irig :that :site::on��ine . . :Since under even- the most favorable· sdenari61 .we will ·need . " a_dditiorial- prodes'sing''·space·,·.· I. exp·e�-t-· t-6 ··,have?-t-o' 'g�v"�: -that

- OEd�r__ Y�ithin_·:.th.e;�fie?:i�:_-90U'pl�-- of: (lays in,· orde_r ,;to give ·noD ' th'e- f1ecessa#y:.i:>_rep:ara:t�6..I1>:�irt.te. '>(T_he hext- likely: site: is 15,000.) For:t-McC()y·-_iri"Wisconsin with a capacity of . :'·/.r .• ! .• · ... · : .• · . •• ·"_· . ; 'i .·. . •l

* Fort Indiantown Gap will be ready to receive its first refugees on Saturday.

· . · .,

. t;" (" c •• • . ,.. ·

'-

·. ' - . . , .. ,· ., ' -�" - '

· ,. I .-';• ·. ·· . . :;:_ . ·:, ·' THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON

16 May 80

. -· ··-:-·· Lloyd Cutler Hugh Carter

The attached was returned in the President's outbox today

- and is forwarded to you for :.' �- --·-..;,...... -: appropriate handling.

Rick Hutcheson

cc: The First Lady

•

;.:_�_'..... :7"' . :.:...=....;"'-" �--=:::- -� , . - --- .. - --�-=--::r;_���-;...:����--- ��--�-�--_:_ ___ - . - - :�-�,;.: ... ,.;-;.:.-�-;�;�=; • -; .. . ; -:-�·-i ��--�_:_�--�- ·,;:- �: . .• • -��-:-:.-.::_z-_-· ·::·.:·:-�:....::._:_-:-_-.;.. �:- :;:- ..:.:_ __ ·: - ----;,..�­ �------<--

--- ·- . _ .,_ ---·.:-_.:-:.::.;·_ .::.:.;..:.,.;. - "'""·:.··-·: -- -- .::-�:�:_,:_:;:�-=:_:::�-�--:_�-;·__,-.:.:: . :::.':"� :,-· :·:� �- :..:.:...,�·::;�:.-..- . --- -:

------

-_ 1,_ _,_- '": - ::::-: -� -�=- �;).�-- ··- -·

::- - �":-- . �------;- --..- --- THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON May 16, 1980

Mr. President:

The First Lady concurs with the recommendation.

Rick/Patti THE .WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 14, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

FROM: LLOYD CUTLER (��� \)/1 C:=.·---­ HUGH CARTER �

SUBJECT: Official Expense Allowance

The Executive Office Appropriation Act of 1979 changed the manner of handling your $50,000 official expense allowance. In the past, funds not used could be retained by you and were counted as taxable income. Under the new system none of the $50,000 is taxable as income and the unspent balance is returned to the Treasury at the end of the fiscal·year.

GAO and Treasury have continued to disburse the $50,000 in monthly installments. Absent direct instructions to the contrary, they assumed that the only difference between this year and prior years is in the treatment of the remainder.

Jim Mcintyre has recommended that the monthly disbursements procedure be stopped and that funds be held by Treasury until charges are incurred. We agree.

In consideration of this, we recommend administering this account as follows:

1) Maintain the expense account at Treasury and administer it as all other accounts are administered.

2) Discontinue automatic monthly disbursements of the expense allowance and return all funds disbursed to date to the Treasury.

3) Delegate to Hugh Carter authority to approve charges to this account in accordance with Counsel's guidelines.

___ Approved Disapproved ----

Elactrostatle Copy Msldl" fm Pf®S®�Jat�orn fPlur�©�es TilE \\'IIITE IIOllSE I ! \\'1\ SI I I N C; T 0 N

Date: 14 May 1980 MEf\10RANlJllM

FOR ACTION: FOR INFORMATION:

The First Lady

FROM: Rick Hutches-on, Staff Secretary _

SUBJECT: Memo from Lloyd Cutler and Hugh Carter RE: Official Expense Allowance

.. :. CJ•.• ••

YOUR RESPONSE MUST BE DELIVERED TO THE STAFF SECRETARY BY:

TIME.: 12:00 pm

DAY: Friday

DATE: 16May 80

ACTION REQUESTED: Your comments Other:

STAFF RESPONSE:

__ I concur. __ No comment. Please narc other comments below:

PLEASE ATT/\CH THIS COPY TO MATEiiiAL SUf3MITTED. THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 14, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT /-�

FROM: LLOYD CUTLER t�--)1_ C--­ HUGH CARTER � .

SUBJECT: Official Expense Allowance

The Executive Office Appropriation Act of 1979 changed the manner of handling your $50,000 official expense allowance. In the past, funds not used could be retained by you and were counted as taxable income. Under the new system none of the $50,000 is taxable as income and the unspent balance is returned to the Treasury at the end of the fiscal year.

GAO and Treasury have continued to disburse the $50,000 in monthly installments. Absent direct instructions to the contrary, they assumed that the only difference between this year and prior years is in the treatment of the remainder.

Jim Mcintyre has recommended that the monthly disbursements procedure be stopped and that funds be held by Treasury until charges are incurred. We agree.

In consideration of this, we recommend administering this account as follows:

1) Maintain the expense account at Treasury and administer it as all other accounts are administered.

2) Discontinue automatic monthly disbursements of the expense allowance and return all funds disbursed to date to the Treasury.

3) Delegate to Hugh Carter authority to approve charges to this account in accordance with Counsel's guidelines. � Approved Disapproved ----

filectrostatlc Copy Made for Preservation Purposes · � -- -=!\ . � � -- : : · ;. ��:::": :: THE WHITE HOUSE :� : � WASHINGTON .- � ... 16 May 80 �

_ _.. - .., _ _ ...._� _ . .... - �.,.:. . : - _ ;-:::--:. ·- -· . . -_,_-_ .. · - _ �-- � � -- _: ; ·· , . Lloyd . Cutler __ ·. ._ · _ : : Landon Butler . "" - ; - - · � - -� The attached was returned in :=-::-: the Pres ident's outbox today and is -�="�;��:.��:'�����=1=�:;_;E��,·:�:::�:� ��"��r·�r�� forwarded to you for �- . · appropriate - handling.

= - - - : . Rick Hutcheson

- cc: Frank Moore

• -

· i

'. j

-

- ·j ------· ------. . ------. · · �- -- -- ·- :· -�--�: ·; ::-!: ·- .:--.:.:::.?:::':_ :�(·�· · . : ::__....:c:_ - . -�· _::- -_-·:..:."-.:.;-:.:�� . - � o-��:::::----=���-- -: _-.,., --. ·---�· J. . . .

. _ ----:------_ ...... :-::..::....�--- ...:.. _ .::..:..__ _� , _ _ . - --:: - - . =--�.·-: - ;::=-::.�- -�-- --:::�---::�--:_;--:: . - - ·- -- :.- :·--::-::--�---:- . :-:::-f.;::;·�::;=i-.:�·:c.-::_�i;:..:. -: - ____.,.- ,·:-: �-�7=�---: - - ---:-· .::::-.- . ------__ _ _:_:;�.------: · __ : .

. ._._ - - . --::� �� · -- �-- - .:�:� �-�-=--... �- :. : -:�7--. . .. , . .:.. . ;�-�-7 ::.:.:�-7:: ···, • • - • • - · .. :.,J..:.· . -� · :_::::·�- ·. -� �:��'�;- c..::::===';-"-�� · �-----:· . '�:):�c�Sl(tf�{f� .·: -- .: .:______THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

Max 13, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT ·"' '-.. / ,___ ...... ' .' ...--·.

; ." FROM: LLOYD CUTLER · -

SUBJECT: Grants of Executive Clemency

J I...... :-·

The Deputy Attorney General has forwarded a report (Tab A) recommending that you deny the pardon application of Cyrus T. Anderson, a Washington, D.C. lobbyist who was sentenced to 18 months imprisonment and fined $10,000 following a convic­ tion in 1972 for bribery of a u.s. Senator whi�e representing the Spiegel mail order company. After serving only about six weeks in prison, the Court reduced the sentence to time served because of his ill-health.

A number of major medical problems, including an incurable brain tumor, have caused Anderson's physical condition to deteriorate to the point where he is reportedly unconscious. In light of his present condition, Secretary Marshall sent you a memorandum dated April 29 (Tab B) requesting that you grant Anderson a pardon for humanitarian reasons. Others who have recommended clemency include Lane Kirkland, Tip O'Neill, Peter Rodino, Arthur Goldberg, and Henry Fowler.

The Deputy Attorney General believes that humanitarian considerations are outweighed by the seriousness of Ander­ son's offense--a crime which undermines the legislative process and destroys the public confidence in its elected officials, and by Anderson's refusal to acknowledge that he committed the crime by claiming that the funds involved were given as political contributions. This is a very difficult case, but I agree with the Deputy Attorney General's views and recommend that you not grant Anderson a pardon.

Decision 1// DENY ANDERSON'S PARDON APPLICATION (Cutler, DOJ recommend) (1)

GRANT ANDERSON'S PARDON APPLICATION (Secretary Marshall recommends) CCL and Landon Butler) (�) THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 16, 1980

Mr. President:

Frank r·�oore comments that cy· Anderson is highly recommended by many members of Congress. The leadership feels that Justice and the FBI are operily anti-labor� Brilab, in th� south�- and Abscam targeting on labor leaders.. Anderson is·an old labor friend who is sick and probably dying. Th� granting of a pardon would be viewed as a humane ges.ture that would moot some of the overt anti-labor sentiment, or at worst, not add another arrow to the anti� labor quiver.

Landon Butler concurs with the Marsh�ll recommendation also. He adds that Lloyd Hackler has also been very active . in developing support for Anderson,. s pardon request.

Rick/Patti - 2 -

II.

In addition, the summary of cases at Tab C lists forty-eight {48) other persons whom the Deputy Attorney General recom­ mends for Executive clemency. We have reviewed and concur with the Justice reports on these applications and recommend that you grant clemency in each case.

A. If you decide to grant clemency in these 48 cases and to deny Cyrus Anderson a pardon, please sign the Master Warrant at Tab D.

B. If you decide to grant clemency in these 48 cases and to also grant Cyrus Anderson a pardon, please sign the Mas ter Warrant at Tab E, which 0:� includes his name. ,,-

- - - - � - ...... - - Ll oyd C - utler . Th {" e at j tach r-=- the ed w �re as re siden • turne ; and � t s . d n s f outb ox , ·.- " orw · · - You . ard tod � - -- _ - ---=-:-- - - :-·!:��-::!>:�-�--:'? ... ;.�· � ed ay ..�------· . -� -�:�::��: -��:_::·-�-:,��-�£·�- r �n t o forma YOu tion. for

Rick Hut c heson

I i «��� k - - , -- -·� I ��iz_

:..---· /. ::·:';:-�;.,_� :::}:��--. �7_..• - -�=7-���-�::;�:�� --:��--����;) =--=:·--��--:-��- �.. �:��::�-��;��:-��; - �-����t � :__ ..,._·�-- - r · I . : -.....�-

·· ·· : ··: - _;. -_·-::_ ------· - -

------_-___ :::.:���-:------·.

----:� =�=...:.-::...=::3:=:::..------

·-·. ·-·-· -

·- - - � :-�:��-��s� -� - � --� ------II 3u A.JI1

THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON Q

MEETING WITH LORD KILLANIN

FRIDAY, MAY 16, 1980 Oval Office 11:30 a.m.

FROM: LLOYD CUTLER. JOE ONEK

I. PURPOSE

To reassure Lord Killanin about future American support for the Olympic movement, and to reaffirm the irrevocable nature of the USOC decision not to send a team to Moscow this summer.

II. BACKGROUND

At its last Executive Committee meeting, the International Olympic Committee (IOC), requested Lord Killanin to meet with President Brezhnev and you to discuss the Olympics. Killanin met with Brezhnev on May 7. (A detailed description of their conversation is attached (Tab A) . It was supplied to our Embassy in Madrid by the Spanish Government, which received it from the Spanish Ambassador in Moscow (Sarnaranch) who is also Vice Chairman of the roc and a possible successor to Killanin. The source may be either Mme. Berlioux, Director of the IOC, or Srnirnov, the Soviet Vice Chairman of the roc, both of whom attended the meeting.)

A memo of my conversation with Killanin in Dublin on May 10 is attached as Tab B. Killanin is by now resigned to the fact that there will be a large-scale boycott of the Garnes. Killanin's primary purpose in seeking this meeting is to obtain reassurance about future American support for the Olympic movement. Talking Points which provide that reassurance are attached (Tab C).

I believe it is worthwhile to broach the possibility of an IOC decision to order a one-year postponement of the Garnes. The USOC and severar-Iffiportant IOC rnemlJers have endorsed such a postponement. Neither Killanin nor the Soviets will probably take it seriously until they see the full extent of the boycott on May 24, but it may be useful to test Killanin's reaction now.

Electrostatic Copy Made for Preservation Purposes 2

III. PARTICIPANTS

Killan:in is an ... endless talker, arid you will have to interrupt his mon6logue to.move the meeting along. H� i� de6�nt� single-minded but ineffective. He will be accompanied byMonique Berlioux, a native of France, who is the extremely powerful Director of the roc. Sh�.·�s a former backstroke gold medalist, ariti-Soviet and'somewhat anti:...American,· very determined and very smart.

Administration participants will be Zbig Brzezinski, Lloyd Cutler and Joe Onek.

IV. PRESS PLAN

There will be no press coverage. Killanin is agreeable

0 to leaving without a sidewalk interview. I have attached a draft announcement (Tab D) to be issued following the meeting.

-_ ... .

. ' 1 : ••a.,��•· ' ..

-• PRj;OR!TY . s1u0�4 .. b� RDF�MD #75�B/e1 134���5 P-1\>�;P.cz �1AV e� EM AH!M6ASSX MADRID Ta ��C�TATE WASHCC PRio�ITY 63S6 ·�· S�CTIO!'! e� �� ��1�iAORIO 076��

· N xs: . .

· ra 51 12 C • g 0 6 5 � D S e 0 0 B ARB 0 U R 1 E t ). 0 H M � i � 4 . l;, '� 9 B � R !' � :o·: i 2 :OE)(EC, SCUI., .. TAGSI1 URI SP 'Sue�ECT� · MEETING .�T !HE':KREM�IN · .�� �.�. �. ENT��E TEXT�. 2�� iH� FaLI..CWING "OTEs WERE GIVEN TO US ay FOREIGN MINI�T�V �A� 12� A�THoUGH SOURCE WAS OE�l8E�ATE�Y �OT lOENTzF:te:o, !T !S .LlKEL.Y iO HAVE BEEN. -. . SpANIS� AMB�SSADCR TO USSR SAMARANCH, WHO WAS IN MOo�O� FOR aR�ZHNE��KI��ANIN MEET!N�, W�O IS V I C E ? R E S I 0 � N T 0 F · I C C t A N D l'i H 0 I S N 0 W H� MAD R I 0 • . . - . THE.TE�T IS�VE�BATI� As SIVEN TO US WITH MINO� �ORRECTIONS FOR cl.ARITV. PARTICIPANTS INC�UO�D: PRESIDENT l.EONIO�SREZHNEVJ AN AS�ISTANTI A N I N T F. R P R E T E F: 7 I 8 �·! V I K 0 , . V I j A L.Y S M X R N 0 P A T I r\ (j V . . V. LQRC Ki��AN%N ANC �CNlQ�� 6ER�IOUX, 3� �E�IN T!XT� , PRESIDENT 6REZHNEV EXTENDS �REE!ING� To �ORo KIL�ANIN8 8E�!NS. READI�GI "50�I�T F E a P I. E K..; : 0 1: V 0 U '� :: L HE R E Q 1..E T M E i3E F R AN K I AM PLEA�En.To MEET WITH MAN WHO DOES SO MUCH TO THa. . ENSU�E THE SUCCESS OF THE GAM�S, I DEE�I..Y - RESP�cf:THE TRAOIT!ON OE THE OLYMPIC GAME�, lN ThE FIELD OF T�� ORGANIZATION THER� WILL BE �C 6tFF!CU�TIES1 T�E DOORS OF THE SOVI�T UNION ARE W!O� DP�� P�RTICIPANTS Fp� THE . . AN� THE �UE:STS,11' ... . PoiNTS OUT STRCNG�V THAT THE GAMES ARE A FESTIVAL Op �·]O�LO WIDE NATURE AND. MUST NOT 8E THE - -. EKCI.Ug�VITV OF A COUNTRYo �T MUST 3E A�SO STRESSED U�!DN HAS-NEVER USEb SPORT AS I ( ' THAT-spVIET A·Po�tT!CA� ' ( ( Y!EAP!.Jr.la

iOR:130/07137Z- -

.;: f;;' � �,... , .. DEClASSifiED Pw; RaeProJec;t ESON; NLC-\2t::" ·l/·2.1-J-8

sv�DAJE· 1 �u?fti 5� CA��ING FOR A BGYCO�T U,SDA� ARE NOT PUNISHING

y - H E 0 i H � E. 0 N l. s !j v � � T u \1 r, 0 �� 8 u ,. i R c: 0 u N T R ! - E$ ; ' T HER f" t: R � , \•,1 t:: C A t-iN w i A C C e: P T , T h I S P R A TC I C E a PARTIC�PATXON IN THE GA�ES HAS �EVER BEEN VIEWED AS

THE HE C u G �!IT I 0 N 0 F T H � _ F C L.ICY 0 � A C 0 UN T R X 11 . - 0 N E SOVIET ATHbETES TOOK, PART XN THE �XAMP�E1· THE - GAM�S. L.AKE PI..AC!O MUST NOT BE COivSIP�Ri:O AS �N . - T HE . R E e 0 G �JI 't I0 N D F T t-i � A M C: R lC A N . 'P C � I C V � TKE PRe:TEXT-T,4KEN \'JAS ·rnE EVENTS OF AFGHANISTANo -

- · 1'L r;T M E S A Y i H A T I T }) A S 0 N Vt APT E R ' R E P E AT I N G _ AND-PRe-SSING R�QUESTS 'TI'IAT WE MOVED -;o AFGHANISTAN, r� 0 R !:: Ll �V R TrH S W A S D 0 N � l N F U L. L. � 0 M PL. I ANC E ". W I T H R � l. ES. OF UNiy!D NATIONS AND oUR TREATY WtTH AFGHANISTAN, WE ARE IN FAVOR OF A Po�ITICAL. ��TT�EME�T-TO PUT AN EN0.1b THIS SITUATION.AS SOON AS THERE !S NO �C�GER OuT5XO�-INFLUENCE PREVENTING !To. I CAN ASSURE TAAT THE So�IET PEOPLE WILL CREATE THE FAVORA6CE--CONOITIONS ASSUMED-OF . Td SYA�E TH� GA��S� �LSO YOU CAN 6E . - Al.� �!NANC�AL AID NECESSARY, AS fOR THE P�OCEOURES THIS CAN 6E EASILY �O�KED uu;·-�V THE bCOG11 HE �AN� THE O�VMPIC GAMES TO 8E MARKED WITH HtGH PERFORMANCES L.EADING BEST S�ORT EVER AND . - . - .. - 'TD ll0RLD �e:CuRDSa11 (END �� �RITTEN SPEECH) ToDAY' rME SITUATION HAs SEEN AG�RAVATEDa C�RTER �!ANTS_ ro PRaVENT THe �AMES FROM .BEING HEI..D ANO SRINGS PRESSURE TO BEAR ON AL� ·HIS AL�IESa II H E I S A H G P E L.E 8 8 C A S � '' ; 8 U T ' I T I S I t� P D.'�T A NT - �-� 1 -. . F FU\ N C 1 . F 0 R 0 i HE!R T I 0 �·l 5 F E D � R : P 0 F , G C: R M A N '1' , - . E iTA�Y iNC SPAIN TO TAKE PARTe lF _f@R: OF �ERMANY PA�T�CIPATES, THE OTHER �OUNTRIES · WtL.L.. FoL.l..OY.:ca ! wANT:TO HE�? YOU, A�p TO HE�P THE O�YMPIC MoVEMENT AND THE GAMESa WE A�E �EAVIN� FOR VUGQS�AVIA IN THE AFTERNOON, CHANCELl..DR SCHHIDT A!C.L. cE THEREo HE IS lNDE6TELI ;· �o. OUR ��U\�·�· I WI�l. r�EET I'ITH Hlf'•; AND r;LLO h!:'-1 A Ft:.l'l V1INGo8 , . (pRE�IcENT BREZHNEV THEN READ A PREPARED DOCUMENT) -- ­ I H!L.L STATEJ YOUR GOyERNMENT HAS DEC!UEO td AppE�L FDR A !OYCCTT OF THE GAM!S; YOUR PA��IAMENT

- A !.; S 0 & a l.: Z !-! 0 P E T � E F o R o G a  I � L. N C T e. R I N G . P R E 5 S Li R E - T - - . �T

OF 02 FIRIOR!i'Y

uT:sJ92 · · DE RUEH!'HJ #?588/02 134i751 p i�17i5Z M�Y 8Z ZFFP� - . EM AMEMBAssY MADRID. -

io ��CsTAiE WASHDC PRioRITY 6�67

�! �- � --5 -T 5ECT!ON 02 0� �4 MAORID 07568

Naoxa. . .. To ·6EA� ON THE NOC ANO �ET·THE ATH�ETES TAK� PART IN THE-GAMe:s, . . . L.'oRD K!l.I..ANINI THANKS CB�!ZMNE.V) _'I'OR ·THE SPEECH, �XP�A±NED THAT HE WANfEDrTD PUT HIMSeL.F AT - AN�bNElS DISPOSAL., W�NTS TO MAKE C�EAR PROM TKE �EGI�NiNG THAT WHATEVER-HIS PERSONAL FEE�INGS THe; P�ESipENT THE MAf �E rii: IS OF IOC# TK�R�FORE.... NEUTRA�-AND ABOVE PD�ITICS, - PAVS TRleUTE TO TR�MENQOUS �ORK DONE ay NOVIKOV . . . . AND- :.;MiRt-;OV.o. s,RESS�S THAT Po�iTt6A� HI8P�RPOSES, CONCERN . GAMES ARE USED FOR E)(?L.A!NS TH.�l HE \'H�OTE TO PRESIDENT BREZKNEV ON fEa� 1�TH (NOTES PAHA�R�PH OF �ETT�R)�ANO A�XED THAT GAMES SHOULD SE HE�D !N THE RIGHT ATMO��HERE� THE� Q00T�S-�ETTER OF:pAEsiOENT 9REZHNEV Ta-·MRe · · · ·· · - NnvtKa\ia ��P�A!NS THAT HE �AS NeT GOING TO MENTION AFGHANISTAN SuT

· . THE�ACfUAL T�NSION� . THEN L6RD KiL�ANIN �XPLAINS THAT ONE OF THE THINGS Us!P NiB TH� BOOK OF PlRTY ACTIVITIES pUBLISHED WEL� B�FORE THE PRO!���S Of AFGHANISTAN STA�TED, . - . ME �UQ��S A PARAGRAPH C� !To FRE5lD�NT SREZHNEVB INTERRUPTING "�HAT(S W�ONG WIT� TtjAT,11 . LoRD KTLLANIN: EXPLAINS THAT THE REASON FCR AWARU±�G THE GAMES TO Mb6COW �AS NOT ON Fb�ITICA� GRQUND�-BUT FOR TH� A6±�ITY OF �OSCOW ·ro �TA�� TH�M !� TH! PRCPER WAY, Now TH� eacK HAS �EEN us�o BY THEIR ENEMIESo , .

l:) .. \' I '/";. • [/ ";: r � i-: • � .. '-' ,�...... u 7

. OECt.ASSlfllll

· Per;Rae Protect 2 ESDN;NLC-/7'- 21- 7-/-1 � �-- -- J1b ?h

'· ;s-:!""��·-·:·� -· : .

. - ,, � ' · '.,. . � . • ; . .'. . ��!¥'�' -. . ..

NoVIKo�u STRESSES THA� BOOKL.ET IS AN INTE R �A� T F 0 W N . \'1 0 R � HJ S I 0 I! :-1E P A R T Y o . Do C U i'l E N 0 K T H E I R T . Mq�. NO\iiKClV REAFFIRMS ThAT. HE HAS. NEVER .. SE:T. E�ES ON.THIS BOOKLET AND THAT IT- IS A MI�OR PROBLEM• If PRESIDE�T SREZHNEV� ASKS �ORO KI�l.ANIN HE- .

� U E i 0 S I T =: N C 5 · TC A TE W 0 U ,AG R E T H E yi 0 R D H E N - . .. To tAANC�L.�CR SCHM!CT� - . l..oRO. K!l..L.ANINi · RE?\.IC:s THAT·, THIS WAS EXAC'U.Y WHAT H� \�ANTt�D. TO ASK HIM1 . THEN EXPR!!SSe:S THE WISr(.TC TC:L.l. . PR!:Sioi:NT BREZHNE:V HO� HE SEES. THi::' SITUATION� .. 1'�E-KEV: LIES WITH 'FaRaG� AND WHAT :THEY SAY OR DO ACTH1A���5 . MA� TREMEr-Joo�s �EP���u�sxoNs oN !H� �oc oF AL.L.· QUN �!- • C . , G I . . AT T HE i'i E E: TX N N R CJME 0 N M A Y 3 R D a 1 8 N 0 C S F R 0 ti, WEST�RN EUROPE MADE SUGGESTIONS-WHICH ARE.PO$ITIVEa Most OF THE NOCS WISH-Tb TAKE PART. IT· SHOU�O ALSO SE PDI8TED OUT THAT C�R!AIN N09S ARE tNbEP�NDENT Op· THE!R GOVERNMENT AND EEE� IT IS THE!R DUTY To ENAB�f THEIR ATH�ETES TO TAKE PART IN THe GAMES AN��HEfE IN-TH! WDR�D� THERE IS A BI� DANG�R IF-F ,R �·JIL.L. SNO�JS aG, SAYS NO iliAT IT AL.Lo PctNTs OUT THAT IN THE AFTERNOON HE WIL� HO�C DxsCUss:tON WITH MR·, NOVlKOV REGARDING ·oETAI�S auT-MUAT IN�IST THAT SoME NAT!ONAL.�FEDERAti��S HAVE · AL.READV' DECIDED t-JOi TO TAKE PART, AND THIS IS Oy��WHF�MING IN EQUESTRiAN AND POSSIBLY SAME.IN

YACHTING, . -...... I R T S , P N 0 T 6 E 0 A N 0 T HE R S P 0 C 0 1•1 C:T I T I 0 N S M I G H T - F - - · • STANDl�RD11. . Hj;[3�. E:N0UGH . . ACTUALLY THE SITUATION IS CRITICAL.� Rc;MlNt::s 'THAT WHEN !LiC A�iARDED 'THE GM':ES, THt• WAS �E�COMEO 99-PE�CENT AROUND 'THE WORL.Da IT WA� TIME ANC SIG� Of.DETENTE. NOW IT XS.AGAIN ·· ·· ·-

THE cot.:o AR.. . SREZ�NEV TO DO IN HIS ASKS PR�5IO�NT EVERYTHING POW�R. INTER�ST THE To 8EL� TH� GAMES, IN �HE OF sPORT, OF . 0RGAN!iiNG COMMITTEE �HICH. WORKED SO HARD, OF SPORTSMEN, fiNA��9� HE APP�A�� TO PRESIDENT BREZHNEV WHO IS THE M. T T�PORTA� MAN lN THE WOR TO DO SOMETHING R E A F G H A N ! S �� M·l D I N i H t! Hl T E R E S T' 0 F · A L � T i:i V A 0 I D POLIT!�A� D!SRU?T!ONe - - . . . . , iloi- .,,..., A' I A -F A D'1N'D... rue:- T 1.,10 l.ir; E "'c::r . f,, i:.... <"'(! T'''T, "' ' ' 'i:. ['Ii:,l'( E F A CT "" ... ('\R ,., R I fl l.. A 6 ... - . �T .

q >,' : Iii 't � < f - ;" 7 T I ... ! ! - ••.l .l. t...> ..... or ::12 o R 1·� 5/•1i� : 3 s z

R E i - ; . ; . Si1- ;. :.,.0;.• . ·trw"'•e�*s- c0�v

PR!Ot

To �EcsT�TE WASHDC PRioRITY 6368

� E -�'-� .E T SECTION ��- �f iZl3 �1ADRID 07568

NQDIS: --

T 0 C X S 0 U 6 S H A S 6 E E N M A 0 E , P 0 S S I e � E T H AN K S T 0 T HE 0 L.;Y- i'lP - I C t::o\it:ME�-�'1''" �iANY P�OPL.E ARE ABL.!:: ' TO t'iEEi UNDER THe: o�yMPie.- GAMES, WITH VARIOUS IDEAS AND IDEOt..OGIES, - THI$-Is WHY HE FEE�S THE O�VMPIC MOV�MENT IS HE EXTENbED ON a!HALF WORTH �AVING, - MANY THANKS -· OF THE �HOL� ICC� PQ��Ic�NT 6�EZHNEVC 'UL.LY AGREED WITH L.ORO K!L�ANfNts YIE�S AND fH� STATEMENT MADE_ THAT THE Ot,.yMPIC MCVEME�T Is COMPOSED OF VARI00S PEOPL.E�- PROMISED TD Do HIS VERY BEST SO TMAT THE

Aj'MCl�f?H�RE _ i 11• - _ _ IMPROVES -- -- Sovi�T UNION WILL GIVE AL� ITS PRESTIGE TO HELP . . - THIS CAUSE• . - T H A f\lK E L! t.:. 0 R 0 K! .c."-!1..!... IN F 0 R E 1.. U C! D Ai IN G THE F R 0 61.. EM, �ORD-Ki��ANIN8 REFERRED TO THE!R MEETING IN lS621 fQI..�CWEO !RIEF PERSONAL: REMEMBRANCES�

PR�$lDE�T 8REZHNEV� . ExPLAINED THEY HAC PREPARED A . -- - . . PRESS �!�EASE AND READ !Ta . �bRD KiLLANiN� WARNED THAT ICC �OULO ISSUE A �TAT�M��T FROM I..AUSAN�E;. END TEXTa- aAR�OUR - . � - -- �r

OF 21

.S. .E C R :: T J1 TAB B THE WHITE HOUSE

WAS'""JNGTON

May 12, 1980

ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

- .....,.: FROM: LLOYD CUTLER

RE: Olympics/Meeting with Lord Ki1lanin

J

' ·. f . � I met with Lord Killanin in Dublin on Saturday. He and tne IOC Executive Director, ��e. Berlioux, met with Brezhnev ln Moscow on Wednesday, May 7. As you know they would like to meet with you at the White House on Friday, May 16.

Killanin now accepts the fact of the boycott. Of the 100+ Olympic comi"Tlittees, he now estimates that not more than 50 will attend the Moscow games. He proposed a one-year post­ ponement to Brezhnev but did not receive any encouragement. While he believes the Soviets may change their mind if most of Western Europe joins the boycott, his best guess is that they will insist in holding the games this year in any event.

The purpose of the meeting would be two-fold:

(a) to confirm U.S. support of the Olympic movement, including the 1984 Los Angeles games, along the lines of your message to Killanin dated April 18 (attached).

(b) to confirm that if the IOC decides on a one-year postponement without changing the site, the U.S. will go along, reserving its freedom to renew the boycott if the Soviets have not corrected the situation in Afghan­ istan.

Killanin says that at the iOC mee�lngs during the last week of May, the Soviets and perhaps others may attempt to ce�sure or suspend the USOC because it accepted the government's recormnendation to boycott. He is very nuch opposed to any such move and believes it will not pass. At the meeting you may want to say that future U.S. support of the IOC woul6 be seriously affected by any such step. -2-

Killanin and other Western IOC officials are very much concerned about future Sovi€t bloc domination of the IOC if the United States withdraws future participation and support. This is another main reason why he wants the meeting.

Killanin is agreeable to minimal publicity. We will arrange for him and Mme. Berlioux to enter and leave by the Southwest Gate to av�id press and TV interviews.

I recommend the meeting as helpful to our boycott effort and to maintaining Western influence in the IOC movement. Phil Wise says your schedule Friday can accommodate it. � I Approve Disapprove .. � .. . ..

.. � F . Don !•1 i 11 er ' Hotel· Continental Lausanne, Switzerland telex 24878 tel eohone : 20-15-51

. Following is the text of the telex sent today to

Lord Killanin:

"The position of the United States in opposition to

sending a·team to the Twenty-Second Olympiad in Moscow

results solely fro� the adverse impact of ihe Soviet

invasion of Afghanistan on the standards of international

j la\�7, and on the preservation of human rights, and on

the national security of the United States and many other

free world nations. As we advised the United States

Olympic Co��ittee, the position of the United States

Government rests squarely on these grounds .

This position does net detract in any way from our

belief in the value of the Olympic movement, our

suppo�t for the International and Nati on a l Olympic

Corrl!-ni t tees, and our adherence to the princ ipl e that

national and international amateur sports should be

administered by private bodies and not by governments.

1\Te shall continue to oppose the efforts of other goverr.l!"Tlents

to establish ffi\TESCO gam�s, and ·v.'e shall Vlelcome the IOC

and athletes from all el igible Olympic nations at Los

Ai"lgeles, c.s we did at Lake Placid."

JiiT:my Carter The hhi te Eouse - i·Iashi::,g ton, D.C.

l'

·,

TALKING POINTS FOR MEETING WITH LORD KILLANIN

--··.As r:·.wrote you last month, the United States posi tiori- ·on· the; Moscow Garnes results solely ·. ·� :.from the:soviet .invasfon of:Afghail.istan. · Our

· -position. does not detract· in .any way from .our 'support.· of the Olyrnp·ic ·movement.· . We look forward to "flleL9"84 Games i""if"7"s;h=a"J evo. and Lo.s 'Angeles ·and SCgii:'� wilL do� our-:best to. help. heal� any created by·-.this. year 1.-S; events. · .. Within this 'cqunt.ry '. we ··are:;· taking .. s.teps ... to' increase financial .. support · ·for- 'the U�O.C so· that ·_the Comrn1ttee and Arne:r-1can ath�e?

Our sup12ort for the international Olympic movement would be seriously affe_cted if the roc_ should decide to impose· sanctians.-or a vote of censure against the USOC for its decision not to attend the Moscow Garnes. The USOC acted on the Government's advice that to send a team would harm our national security, and no Olympic Committee should be criticized·for acting in accordance with its Government's view of the national security.

We are going to continue to press a� hard as we can to convince Olympic Comrn1ttees, individual federations and individual at.hletes not to go to Moscow. As yo� know, the SbviE!t.S have not paid the slightest heed to the request by.the roc and others to improve the atmosphere in the.world by withdrawing .from Afghanistan. Participation under these circumstances is absolutely unacceptable even if·there is a reduction in the use of national flags and anthems.

As we advised the . USOC lc:ist. February, we cOntinue to believe that postponement of the Garnes :for .a_y_e_ar. would make sense if the roc believes .t�is is a prE!ferable alterh�tive. It ,w01.lld give' the.Sov.iets morE! time to take

aCtions· to restore·· the · peutralit.y· ·of Afghari''istan that would perrriit the· cn�tions of ·.· the world . :to . go to lVloscow. If· the .Soviets do no_t take appropr.iC!-te a(:tion, the IOC cq\lld seek to move �the Garnes oi, if •. riec·e·ssary, hold the same kind of Spartakiad Garnes in;:Mos'c::ow in '81 that would be ·held in Moscow in '8 o·.

. ! ., .• �

.... . · • . . ,, :•'

,. The Pr_esident- today 111et with Lord Killanin, the .· ,_.. · �· 6:� : -.i President� .· the Internat onal Olympic Committee, and �- · -- · - , . � ':B �� ; (s b e . • Min � Mo. ique erl:io·�·- : . : i � irec.tor;. at their request . ;· .- . :·. ; ·. . >\ [' : . : . - . .· __ ;.. � . ;· . . ' . ' ' ...... � The Pres-ident · rea.ff:frfued th t the position of the United · ! .· : :_'· .r • • � I ' '•, . • '� ," j ' .· ·, (\. .' ,. ,' -�-- -.�- . .: . . . ' �; . � . . . · . ·:

States in oppo'si'tion: -- -,_.- :to.. seridihg a team to the· Moscow Olympic '·· · .· - . - _ ' . � . ' - . Games result's solely from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

and our belief that it was not appropriate to attend the

Games-in a host nation that was invading its neighbor.

The President made clear that this position does not

detract in any way from our support of the international

Olympic movement, and that we will welcome athletes from

any eligible Olympic nation at the Los Angeles Games in 1984.

The President reaffirmed that the United States will continue

to urge other governments and Olympic C�mmittees.to �ppose

participation in the Moscow Games this summer. He noted that

more than forty National Olympic Committees, including those of the

United States, West Germany, Canada, China, Norway, Kenya,

Argentina and numerous Moslem nations, have already decided

not to attend the Moscow Games. More major national committees

are expected to take the same position during. the next two weeks.

'· '

'�/_: \

. ._ -· · . . ·--:-- S/S 8010616

DEPARTMENT OF STATE �AL Washiogta". D.C. 20520

' BY"CARTER � FILED May 16, 1980 LIBRARY STAFF I J .MEMORANDUM FOR DR. ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI THE WHITE HOUSE

Subject: Call on the President by Former Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Khalil

Former Prime Minister Mustafa Khalil will visit Boston May 18-20 arid Washington May 20-24 for medical consultation and treatment. Khalil has requested appointments with the President, Secretary Muskie and Ambassador Linowitz during the May 20-24 period· he will be in Washington.

Although Khalil is no longer Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, he remains close to President Sadat and will continue to play an important role in Egyptian foreign policy. As Vice Chairman of the National Democratic Party, he will have special responsibility for foreign policy rnatters. Bore importantly, he will have Sadat's latest thinking on the future of the autonomy negotiations; he will meet with Sadat, Mubarak, Kamal Hassan Ali, and .Boutros Ghali before he leaves Cairo. Ambassador Atherton surmises that Khalil may indeed carry a message from Sadat to the President as arising from Egyptian negotiating strategy meeting.

The Department recommends that thirty minutes be reserved on the President's calendar on May 21, 22, or 23 to permit him to receive Khalil. As well, we will seek an appointment with Secretary Muskie during Khalil's stay in Washingtori.

lt��� Peter Tarno � Executive Secre ary

�DENTIAL ESDN:Nt,C./2 C- � 1- TJ-/ -8 G I 2/rZ,/r..J Ds 5 /14/86 GY 6'? N,DAlf �· .I '-J

I I I ' , r LES DENEND--The President asked if l � �: he is see ng Khalil, if he still ,. r needs to see Hosni Mubarak. The t . � answer is yes, since Mubarak will be I bringing a personal message .

Get Les to send memo to President ---- .outlining above

Not necessary ------

------·------�------

\ .. '

Meeting w/Jesse Jackson, Mayor Hatcher and leaders of the May 17 March on Washington 5/16/80

-! :r: ::E JTI � ::E I :!:: z -! G') JTI -! I 0 0 z c (/) JTI

.. ':" ,: ;.· c:o P. !vl. , -·

THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 15, 1980

-

��. MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENTT :�-� �/// FROM: LOUIS MARTIJ!

SUBJECT: MEETING WITH T E LEADERS OF THE MAY 17th MARCH ON WASHINGTON, CABINET ROOM, FRIDAY, MAY 16, 1980, 1:00 P.M.

I. PURPOSE

To hear the concerns and respond to the leaders of the March on Washington.

II. BACKGROUND, PARTICIPANTS, AND PRESS

A. Background

Reverend Jesse Jackson is organizing a march on Washington, D. C., to dramatize the plight of the poor and unemployed, especially the young unemployed. Mayor Hatcher is chairman of the March. They are expecting 25,000 people to participate. Reverend Jackson and Mayor Hatcher claim that the March is not an anti-administration rally. Among the issues that are likely to be raised are the Haitian boat people, jobs, and food stamps.

B. Participants

Approximately 15 national and community leaders will attend the meeting. A list is attached.

C. Talking Points

Talking points will be supplied by David Rubenstein.

D. Press

White House Press Pool and photo opportunity.

EDactrostatlc Copy Made forrFreservstlo�m fu&'p«)ses •

. �.' . :·

' LIST,OF·ATTENDEES - MAY 16, 1980 .

·

.

Mona. Bai:ley>

President,· Delt� · si.gma,- Theta' '' ' ·'· . : ,,...,.....

� li. . H: � B Bf hop' rookins ·...... AME · President· Elect, Blshops·;touncil :v " ' : · · -· ',,� ·�· . · - . . - • - , '· ,- �-.-.-." · ' ... . • • 1 .• . - . Ma,nue.f ... . Bustello · . .

Puerto·Rican Forum, - ...... - .

. Rever�rid Wil'l iain A. JOnes, Jr. President, .Progressive National Baptist Convention

Ruiz Pedro Garza Mexican American Community

Mayor Richard Gordon Hatchet Gary, Indiana

Ms. Dorothy Height President, National Council of Negro Women

Reverend E. v. Hill Chairman, California Baptist Association

�everend Otis Moss Vice Chairman of the Board Operation PUSH

M�. Barbara .. Phillips.

· President, Alpha Kappa Alpha

Mr •. · Mark Stepp vice.. President. -onited.·Aufo .workers . . ' .., : ..·_,. ; �' n Mr .. ·ste ie' Wo der

Art.ist ·, ...... -·· .- · . '-· '• ·. Mr·. ··Raul Yzaguirre -·. � . La·�-:.Rci�z-a ·--

:·· .:;:. •. - Davic:l :Cortf:i�ht . . SANE.' .., ·'· ' ; ,"

:·_ · . . :, . . . " I'(

_ _:_ .\�·

THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION AND YOUTH EMPLOYMENT

The Problem

Y6uth are one-£ourth of labor force, but are one-half of the unemployed .1 ... .

About� fou�r. million 16-24 year olds will have trouble "bompleting·the transition from school to work

While the. total number of all young people will fall in the 1980's, the numbers of youth with greatest needs (i.e�� economically disadvantaged, dropouts, minorities, and youth with special needs) will not decline.

While the white youth unemployment rate has remained about the same over the last 25 years, the minority youth unemployment rate of over 30 percent is nearly twice what it was 25 years ago.

Jobs for youth without high school diplomas are vanishing. In 1950, one out of three jobs were available to young people without a high school diploma. In 1980, it will be less than one out of ten.

The Record - 1977-1980

1977

Sought and secured passage of the Youth Employment and Demons­ tration Projects Act (YEDPA}, landmark youth legislation which added $1 billion and four new experimental programs to the Nation's attack on the problems of high youth unemployment.

Increased the summer program of part-time jobs to 1 million and began expansion of the Job Corps to double its previous size to 44,000 slots.

1978

Sought and secured passage of Targeted Jobs Tax Credit and the Private Sector �nitiative aimed at providing private sector employment to low-income youth.

1979

.Launched Vice President Mondale's Task Force on Youth Employ­ ment to analyze youth employment programs and policies, in time for the 1980 reauthorization.

Successfully mounted the most intensive monitoring and assess­ ment ·effort ever to improve the quality of the summer program.

Doubled Job Corps training allowances - the first increase since the.program started in the mid-1960's. - ,-·'

' >

-2-

1980 . P.ropose

· -./-$-6 bil-lion to youth jobs(:and training. . • • • •• ·' J •• •••• • • • ._· .. •••• -:· •

. !, ·.', ...•-;: c6�t1mie J�b Gorps expansion (end of. April 1980: 37, 500 -gn. ·board)

The Results

Since 1977_,__ when the YEDPA initiative was ,undertaken, the unemploy­ ment _rat�· for youth ages 16-21, both white and non-white, has failen·steadily -- while the proportion of youth with jobs has risen steadily.

Youth Ages 16-21

Unemployment Rate Proportion of Youth w/Jobs White Non-White White Non-White

1977 13.5 33.7 53.9 29.2 1979 12.0 28.9 56.7 32.9

In addition the Carter Administration:

Tripled spending in Labor Department youth programs, from $177 million in 1977 to $2.3 billion in 1980.

Increased years of service to young people by almost 150% - from 175, 000 in 1977 to 425, 000 in 1980.

Piovided jobs equal to one in seven for black 16-19 year olds, and-one in ten for Hispanics.

Th� Future - 1981 and b�yond

On�J��uary lOth the President announced.his co�prehensive $2 billion Y,crti'th.'Edl;LC::ation and Employment Initiative -d�s:i._gned to prepare the

nation' s�Young people for the labor mar]{et• '6f the: 1980 Is. • • • • -. J '

wfi:e_n-�fully 1982 implemented in the new iriitiativ� plus current . �' �. -- ' .·.·· ··

hE!lP - - programs will- provide education,.,work·- expE!rience and training· t_o_ .a.:n <_�st-imated 3 million young people.--: : . · . ' . . /:"-· . ' � '. The··_-Adininis-t:ration's proposal, currently before the Congress, au·th.-oriies_.. programs to be carried out by - :the Departments of Labor and. Educ13.tio�.

.· <

·.··· .·· ·· -3-

The-Labor Department's Youth Employment Program, when fully imple­ mented, wi·ll provide education, work experience, t-raining, labor market information and other services to more than 500,000 additional young people. The new resources, when added to current programs, will serve over 2.5 million 14- to 21-year-olds.

The new program emphasizes:

Additional training and jobs for older and out-of­ school youth;

Stringent performance standards for participants and program operators;

Financial incentives to encourage greater cooperation between CETA sponsors, local employers, school systems and community based organizations;

Consolidation of three of the existing CETA youth programs and closer coordination with the summer program to simplify local administration and reduce paperwork.

The Education Department's Basic Education and Skill Training Program, when fully implemented, will provide basic education and employment skills to approximately 1 million low-achieving junior and senior high school students in poorest urban and rural school districts around the country.

The new program emphasizes:

Basic skills for low-achieving youngsters, including help for students with limited ability in English;

School-wide planning with the active involvement of teachers, parents, employers, and community-based organizations;

Using the link between work and classroom-learning as a way �-to motivate students to stay in school; and

A major role for vocational education in preparing young people for work.

The Youth Act is one of President Carter's top domestic priorities. This new initiative builds on the experience gained over the last 2-1/2 years under the CETA Youth program and the work of the Vice President's Task Force.

The President has clearly stated that even the critical need to balance the Federal budget cannot be an excuse for condemning a generation of disadvantaged young Americans to an endless cycle of poverty and lost opportunity. -. .

CARTER AmHNISTRATIOiJ BUDGET RECORD

FISCAL YEAR 1981 BUDGET

The following programs were not cut in the revised FY 1981 budget; every one of these programs was not only spared from cuts but was increased in funding above the previous year's level:

Social Security AFDC �lledicare Medicaid (basic program)

Summer Jobs Youth EMployment Job Corps Private Sector Initiatives

Head Start Basic Skills Education for the Handicapped Rehabilitation Services Bilingual Education Indian Education Black Colleges Graduate Educational Opportunities Program

UDAG Fair Housing Assistance Grants

Minority Business Assistance Women's Business Assistance

Subsidized Housing Programs ' '

BUDGET CHANGES 78-81

Set forth below are selected examples of the increase in funding contained in the President's FY 1981 budget, as revised in March, compared to the budget that he inherited three years ago:

Outlays,In (rHllions $)

Percentage 1978 1981 Change Ford In March (3-year) Budget Revision

Education *

Head Start 73 475 820 Basic Skills 233 12 40 Education for Disadvantaged 55 2,285 3,536

Bilingual-Indian Education 117 138 299

Bilingual Education 113 90 192 Bilingual Vocation Training 100 3 6 Indian Education 124 45 101

Higher Education

College Work Study 120 250 550 Trio Programs 119 73 160 Black Colleges 27 110 140

Youth Employment

Summer Jobs 66 525 872 Job Corps 159 213 579

Total CETA 115 4,141 8,884

* Note: The numbers shown for all education programs are in budget authority, not outlays. 2

Percentage 1978 1981 Change Ford In March (3-year) Budget Revision

Health

Community Health 44 209 301 Family Planning 45 103 149 National Health Service Corps 179 29 81 Migrant Health 16 32 37 Indian Health 52 436 661 Health Prevention 43 549 788

Economic Development

Community Development Block Grants 26 3,112 3,908 EDA Economic Development Assistance Grants 99 274 545 Minority Business Assistance 52 105 159

Housing

Subsidized Housing Programs 78 3,084 5,485

Income Security

Social Security 53 90,797 138,325 Food Stamps 99 4,712 9,386 Women, Infants & Children (WIC) 1,729 47 860 Child Nutrition 1,847 153 2,979 Special Milk Program 533 18 114

. :)'_... Rubenstein May 15, 1980

TALKING POINTS/BACKGROUND

(NOTE: The ·press• .will enter the room to hear the first 2-3 mim;ttes ·· bf�::yoqr _::t:'emarks. The attached f,act §h�et, on _..s__._ ------� -�--:your�Ydu-th::Emp'loyrrrent ·· Ini tiative·sc--a:na::-ycfur,_-Budgef--Record wi_l,l<·be.:.'giv�n to all the participants in the meeting.. . ) • .:.· ••- 4 '.::. �>· ·......

1. INTRODUCT.ION . :'. . ., ' o When. I heard that Jesse Jackson and Mayor Hatcher would be leading a march on employment I immediately decided that I wanted to meet with them and the other march leaders�

0 I share your deep commitment to increasing employment and to doing everything possible to make certain that the employment · barriers for minorities and youth are removed.

o More blacks, Hispanics, and minority youth are employed than any time in our history. The minority youth unemployment rate is lower than any time in the past six years. But much mqre needs to be done. Unemployment rates are still too high �rnong minorities, particularly those in our inner cities, and we can never be fully satisfied until we have met the goals of the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act.

o I know that you share my concern, and I wanted to hear from you directly today about how we might lower unemployment among minorities and minority youth. Let me make a few other brief points first.

2. ADMINISTRATION'S RECORD

In major areas of your concern, our record over the past several

yearl3 is significant •. Again,·we need to do more, and I am committed to that, but we should not minimize what has occurred:

o Employment. We have created more than 9-1/2 million new jobs.; .. nearly two million of those jobs are held by blacks and':!Iispan±cs. The minority unempl·oyment rate is now 6% I · b�iow. what it was when took '.off-i9e; . the black teenage un�rnployment rate is riow 14% bel()wthe .1976 figure level.

';_ . ·�·

o · ' /Appointments. More blacks and..:Hisparil.cs are serving in . ��ecyior government jobs than in any time in history. And more.blacks and Hispanics have been appointed to federal jud�eships in the last three years than in all of our prior history.

' .. · '.· ·- . ' ' ...: ·� .. . :"· ·

' .

�2-

0 :Budget• . ·Over;. the past three years 1 we have had restrained ·bud·get:s,. al:Id .�a.s: a ·result, have reduced our deficit from $66 hi::llion · ·to a. propOsed balance.· But we .. have, through . ·ta,rgeti'hg.;:resources to the areas of great�sd::> need,

· help poor -,�r.a'st.fcall:Y·.,·incr.ea�ed. funding for progr�l!ls'''that ' ':� _·. people;.'"b,lacks-'.:.· � Hispanics and other d•isadvantaged Americans: .. ._. . . · ;.: .. · . . · : , _'. ._(: · -- _. ;. · :. �:.��;·. Head Start'�------73·%�c�---� -· "::.- : · - Basfc-:·skil-ls ·.:·· 233%.

. · Bil1ngi.ial Education 11}.% _

· . 1�9%� . ·.-· _:•.' �!J�b:cor�s ·· t�TA' 115%. ':Miribrity Bus;iness Assistance 52% Sub!:;idized Housing 78%·;·

I do not need to list more of these;. they_ are· contained in a fact sheet that Louis Martin has given to you.

o Civil Rights. We have reorganized the federal civil rights agencies to ensure greater enforcement capability; and we have increased civil rights enforcement resources every year.

3. CURRENT .. LEGISLATIVE SITUATION

I want to ��e this year to build on the record of the past seve�al years; ,and to have major legislative initiatives in place to preserve· PJ;"Ogress already made and to expand efforts in a number of vital areas. Unfortunately, Congress is not moving quickly enough and time is running out. I need your help, and I hope that you will mention each of these to the members you meet:

o Youth Act of 1980. I have proposed a major restructuring of our Youth Employment Programs that will increase our commitment to youth employment by·$2 billion, bringing the overall youth budget to $6. billion by FY 1982. We are making some progress. in both Houses but your active support is needed to. ensure prompt passage of the Youth Act.

o Fair Housing Act Announcements. I have proposed legislation

� ··to:remedy the maJor defect 1n the Fair Housing Act -- the lac'k ·Of. cease and desist- au>�hbrft.ty·for the Secretary of HUD

· i,:ri_;:Fa;i.·r Housing cases. · The- House_ wi],:l ·be voting on this "legislation next week, and with your·help, there is a · :r:-e�listic . chance it could be passed.• : ·· , . " ...�. �. . ,. . o.:.;. � :;:_:·:Food_-stamps. I have signed leg��-lat:i()n today to enable us

· :;, ·,-: .. ,. to ·?-V()id cutting off food stamps.� ·by.,June 1; that was a ··pos$ibility ·because the Congress .·.moved so slowly in funding

· th_is:{'.program for the remainder- 'c)£ :this year. Your help will

be:needed as the Congress considers funding for FY 1981 •

. - 0 J�udget. . I know you have been concerned about my effort to ···:balance· t}le budget. Firs-t, it· was necessary to stem the ·rnflatio11ary spiral which hurts the poor worse than anyone. .. , . . . � ) ...,3-

Second, my spending cuts were targeted to protect the ·poor. and the disadvantaged. In my revised budget, I not- only spared·key programs from cuts-, but increased th�m· ;from'the. previous year 1 s budget: ', - . -� ' •:

. �(?ci�l �ecurity Head Start · - AFDC·· . _. .' - ·1 Basic Skills - - -- . - -�------�·---:-M·e<:rica�e __ \ - - Bilingual Education . . . MedfC'aid· · ·(:Benefits) Black toll�g�s

siimme¥ . .:robs . Minority :Business Assistance :' ·. · - ·' . IU . ' · You tn ·,.Erriployment Subsidi��d.rto�sing Job _Corps F�ir Housing Assistance Grants ..�-:

Third, I need your help to sustain these program levels, for Congress appears intent on significantly reducing key domestic programs. ·(The Senate has eliminated st-ructural unemployment part {title VII of CETA) �"

3. RECESSION

0 No one in this room.is more concerned about the employment effects of the recession than I. I cannot tell you that unemployment will be decreasing over the next several months. But I can tell you that, based on the information we now have, the recession will be moderate and short-lived. o Consistent with our need to continue fighting inflation, we will do whatever we can to minimize the unemployment effect of the recession, particularly on minorities and youth. For instance, we will be funding summer jobs at 1 million slots this year.

4. REFUGEES o Two days ago, I announced a new program to deal with the serious Cuban Refugee problem. That program will help to regularize the enormous flow of Cuban refugees and will make clear to the world that the burden for this crisis lies sole�y with Fidel Castro. o As part of my announcement I said that we would treat the nearly 40;·,000 Haitian refugees now in South Florida equally. I have directed that all Haitian asylum applicants receive the same federal benefits as Cubans. These ·.include work authorizations a11d food stamps, in addition to. basic he�.l,t h services, free food -s\ipplies, and assistance from volunt,ary· ag:encies. That will not -mean< :that overnight all of their pr¢blems will 'be eliminated or ·· a permanent solution found, but we iare:, doing everything possible now_ tO· 'make certain that the Haitians 1 ·plight is dealt with fairly and equitably by the federal government. THE W HITE HOUS ·- E WAS HINGTON

16 May 80

- - - " - � Al McDonald -.------­---.· --�--- · ...... Rick Hertzberg ·

!_ ... The attache d was re . . the turned -�-�·:::..:; �?�--:.;;-.;.:·:·- . ��':�-. Preside in nt's out , ��-!· ;�:; .; ;�:��:;i�2:�'o�;,- -"-· b 'C • ---- � ,.:� � � , o , and i x to s forwa day rded to approp you for riate h andling.

. -- Rick Hu tcheson �-:c:��--- �---· � .. ::-_:-

------_'; •a . ·- :_ - ..

- - .... : � : :

·-:-;:_----

·

· --. /. ·

-� - : 10_.; :.

-

� � : · · : - :�--�O'���:i��;";�t:.:· - .: _ � :- _ : _ _ � .: _ i_. _ �- - _ �: : · - ..___ , -: . : - =: -;; �- oRo :·.�;:,' . - . - - -

-

;

;-

. .

;..;:;-

: · .

: · THE WH JTE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 14, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

FROM: Al McDonald · Rick Hertzberg Chris Mat thewsc.c,_;,)1.,_.¥.n( ••

SUBJECT: Presidential Speech: Fundraiser for Asian­ and Pacific-American Democrats

I Scheduled delivery: Thur, May 22, Evening washington Hilton

At t ached for your modification and approval is a suggested st rategy for this speech. PRESIDENTIAL SPEECH STRATEGY

ASIAN/PACIFIC-AHERICAN DEMOCRATIC FUNDRAISER (Group or Event)

Thursday, May 22, 1980 Evening Washington Hilton ( Date) (Time) (Place)

Chris Matthews (Speechwriter)

,I Audience description: 1200 Asian- and Pacific-American Democrats and other Carter supporters.

,I Purpose: To strengthen your ties with this influential group.

� Theme: America's historic strength is grounded in its cultural and ethnic diversity.

,I Main topics:

Appreciation of their support.

Nature of America's strength: cultural diversity and unity of purpose.

US remains the land of refugees, the one nation that people struggle to reach.

America has faced serious challenges in the past and has prevailed.

We are facing our challenges today: security, energy, economy.

Strong basis for optimism: America's historic dynamism and unique nat'ional commitment to "pursuit of happiness." t Tone: Optimistic, inspirational, a "Fourth-of-July Speech."

,I Length: 12 minutes.

IEBactrostlltDc Copy Mads for rP>resewatlon Purpoaes THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

May 15, 1980

WESTERN STATES ISSUES BRIEFil'iiG

Friday, May 16, 1980 2:45 P.M. (20 minutes) The East Room

From: Sarah Weddington

I. PURPOSE

To promote among your guests, who are leaders from various Western states, a sense of identity with you and your Administration, a sense of a team working together, and a sense of urgency about actively supporting the Administration across the board.

II. BACK GROUND, PARTICIPANTS, AND PRESS PLAN

A. Background: This is a meeting for civic and political leaders from the states.

B. Participants: A eros s section of civic, community, and political leaders (guest list attached).

C. Press Plan: Press from the various states will be in attendance. They have been told that the briefing is on the record.

III. TALKING POINTS

Your standard presentation to state groups will be appropriate. We request that you do a receiving line with photos after your remarks.

Attachments: Agenda Guest List

EBGCtrootatlc CopyMade for �reserwtion ��s

..•' AGENDA

FRIDAY, MAY 16, 1980

10:00 A.M. SARAH WEDDINGTON, Host Assistant to the President

10:05 A.M. G. WILLIAM MILLER Secretary of the Treasury

10:50 A.M. DR. ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs

11:30 A.M. Coffee Break

12:15 P.M. DR. JOHN SAWHILL Deputy Secretary of Energy

1:00 P.M. Walk to the State Floor of The White House for Buffet Luncheon

2:15 P.M. ALFRED KAHN Advisor to the President on Inflation

2:45 P.M. PRESIDENT CARTER ATTENDEES WESTERN STATES BRIEFING May 16, 1980

Allen, Sid Klamath Falls, OR

Alvarez, Luis

· Deputy Administrator for Spanish Affairs Oregon

Arps, Delores (Dee) Worland, WY

Asher, Clarence (former Wheeler County Judge) Fossil, OR

Astorga, Tony Nahrwold & Astorga Phoenix, AZ

Ayers, Robert Business Manager IBEW, Local 125 Portland, OR

Bales, Wilson Carlsbad City Councilman President, Bales Leasing Carlsbad, NM

Bates, Patricia Carson City, NV

Beaverson, Tony Executive Director Oklahoma Education Association Oklahoma City, OK

Belcher, Randy Albuquerque, NM

Beverly, Trudy Albuquerque, NM

Bishop, Charles A. (Bill) Past President Montana Wilderness Association Montana

Bitar, William Portland, OR

Blanchard, Paul President Blanchard Development & Construction

Albuquerque, NM -2-

Bledsoe, Will Silverton, OR

Bosh, Vicent President IUOE, Local 400 Helena, MT

Brown, James Teacher Tulsa, OK

Brown, Stephen· State Senator Helena, MT

Butler, Johhny County Supervisor Navajo County Winslow, AZ

Calderon, Jose Production Control Supervisor Hyster Company Chairman of the Board Spanish Speaking People of Oregon Oregon

Calderon, Juliana Teacher Oregon

Capps, Doug Portland, OR

Chesler, Harold President Theater Candy Distributing Company Board Member, Utah Travel Council Bloomington, UT

Cohen, Brenda (friend of Sarah Weddington)

Cole, Hugh Knox John Day, OR

Cole, Marjorie John Day, OR -:3-

Christiaens, Bernard (Chris) Great Falls, MT

Colley, Richard Area Manager for Capital Journal Toledo, OR

Conkling, Gary Administrative Assistant to Representative Les AuCoin washington, DC

Courtney, Roger (real estate) Torrington, WY

Curtis, Kathryne Council Bluffs, IA

Damrell, Frank Attorney Modesto, CA

D'Arcy, Colleen Anaconda, MT

Davitt, Phillip St. Charles, IA

Detsch, Norton President Norton Detsch Advertising Oregon

Deyette, Donalee Del Crest, OK

Dickman, David Salt Lake City, UT

Diebold, Lawrence Executive Secretary Montana Education Association Helena, MT

Dmitrich, Mike Representative Price, UT

Dodge, Mary Henryetta, OK -4-

Domenic, Charlotte Tillamook, OR

Eckstrom, Daniel South Tucson, AZ

Fahden, Nancy Chairwoman Board of Supervisors Contra Costa County Martinez, CA

Franklin, Nick Albuquerque, NM

Franklin, Susan Albuquerque, NM

French, Anna M. Milton Freewater, OR

French, Norman Milton Freewate�, OR

Garcia, Rosemary Albuquerque, NM

Garr, John M. Representative East Carbon City, UT

Garrett, Sandra Muskogee, OK

Gary, Joe F. Sponer Petroleum Company Durant, OK

Gordon, Helen Albuquerque, NM

Ha, Joseph M. Portland, OR

Haller, Ken Reno, NV

Ham, Richard State Director of Bureau of Alcohol and Drug Abuse Carson City, NV - 5 -

Hanlon, Charles State Senator Cornelius, OR

Heath, Marilyn Assistant to Executive Director of Cystic Fibrosis Foundation of Idaho Boise, ID

Henry, Maxine Teacher, New Virginia, IA

Hill, James Executive Director Albina Action Center Portland, OR

Hultman, Bertha Klamath Falls, OR

Jarratt, Charlotte Ruidoso, NM

Jensen, Sue Ellen Teacher Dubuque, IA

Johnson, Robert Rock Springs, WY

Johnson, Helen (Mrs. Robert Johnson) Rock Springs, WY

Johnson, Terry Congressional Affairs Coordinator Solar Research Institute Golden, CO

Jones, Clara

Judson, Rhonda Far West Savings & Loan (Mrs. Donald Judson) Salem, OR

Judson, Donald Banker Commercial Bank Salem, OR -6-

Kaplan, Richard Beverly Hills, CA

Kendrick, Dr. Bert Physician Idabel, OR

Kendrick, Dr. Jone Idabel, OK

Knudsen, Ike Glasgow, MT

Kortge, K.C. Representative of Oregon Wheat League The Dalles, OR

Kress, Stan Director Disabilities Determination Social Security Boise, ID

.Ladd, Jim Property Manager Brickrow Chula Vista, CA

Lambird, Gene Professional Placement Specialis.t Milwaukie, OR

Lampkin, Wendell Farmer Echo, OR

Lawrence, Larry Owner Hotel Del Coronado San Diego, CA

Lawrence, Tiah National Education Association Director The Dalles, OR

Lee, Arlo Apache County Assessor St. John, AZ

Lee, Chun Y. Los Angeles, CA -7-

Lester, Jack President Teamsters Local 206 Chairman Joint Council of Teamsters #37 Portland, OR

Linhares, Tom St. Helens, OR

Loving, James Coordinator King Neighborhood Facility Portland, OR

Lucas, Kent Architectural Designer Portland, OR

Madrid, Patricia Judge District Court Albuquerque, NM

Maggard, Charlotte City Clerk San Pablo, CA

Mantello, Frank Vice President Continental Airlines Colorado

Mantello, Sharon Colorado

Marble, Harriet Chester, MT

Marquette, Florrie Retired Schoolteacher Colorado Springs, CO

Mayer, Lonny President V.T.D. Food & Commercial Workers Local 991 Missoula, MT

McCobb, James Attorney Klamath Falls, OR -8-

McKenna, Elener Housewife Durango, CO

Miller, Clyde Salt Lake City, UT

Minne, Al Denver, CO

Misener, Earl c. Judge Lagrande, OR

Munns, Boyd Farmer/Rancher Garland, UT

Nash, William Tulsa, OK

Neal, John Senator North Las Vegas, NV

Neitzel, Angela (Angie) Public Information Director Idaho Office of Energy Boise, ID

Noffisinger, George Small Business/Railroad Havre, MT

Omeg, Mel The Dalles, OR

·pashek, Barbara Nursery Co-owner The Dalles, OR

Pastore, William "Bill" Salt Lake City, UT

Pastore, Genevive (Cleo) Salt Lake City, UT

Patterson, Chat Denver, CO

Peck, Betty Havre, MT

Peck, Ray

Havre, MT -9-

Petersen, Arlene Portland, OR

Rawson, Roger State Representative Cooper, UT

Rice, John Timothy Director Public Relations - Utah State AFL-CIO Salt Lake City, UT

Rijken, Max State Legislator Newport, OR

Romano, Ann Sales Representative KWJJ/KJIB Radio Portland, OR

Ronka, Bob City Councilman Los Angeles, CA

Rosenfeld, Warren with Secretary Goldschmidt

Russill, Sonora with Secretary Goldschmidt

Saavedra, Jim Director Citizens Savings & Loan Association of San Francisco Walnut Creek, CA

Sawyer, Grant Attorney Las Vegas, Nevada

Schindler, Barbara Norman, OK

Schwabe, John Portland, OR

Schwabe, Jean Portland, OR

Sena, Arthur A. President & Assistant Business Agent Iron Workers Local #495 Albuquerque, NM -10-

Senecal, Mary Registered Nurse Aloha, OR

Sevell, Ernie County Judge Vale, OR

Sexton, Dave Director Government Relations Helena, MT

Sharratt, Bryan Treasurer & Finance Chairman Wyoming Democratic Party Attorney Wheatland, WY

Shields, James Great Falls, MT

Sims, Jacquelyn Teacher Ashland, OR

Smith, Euna Teacher Tulsa, OK

Sorrell, Deobrah Golden, CO

Sparkman, Dale Shawnee, OK

Spaulding, Ruby J. Communications Workers of America Muskogee, OK

Stewart, Terry Educator Dubuque, IA

Storment, James C. Insurance Durant, OK

Stratton, Mike Denver, CO

Strauss, Henry -11-

Summerlin, Jim Attorney Claremore, OK

Swanson, Raymone President Swanson Brothers Lumber Company Noti, OR

Sweeney, Michael Attorney Heppner, OR

Templin, Kayla Colorado

Thompson, Helen Horne School Coordinator Ardmore Public Schools Ardmore, OK

Truax, Brad Physician San Diego, CA

Trujillo, Art Mayor Santa Fe, NM

Valentine, Jerald Allen Las Cruces, NM

Walker, Rosemary

Washington, Gail Oregon State Employees Association Portland, OR

Wetzel, Margaret Librarian Albuquerque, NM

White, Ken, Jr. Commodity Broker Clovis, NM

Woolery, Jean San Diego, CA

Yocum, Linda Lee Tucson, AZ -12-

Zander, Edward Sales Manager . KOBI-TV Medford, OR

THE CHAIRMAN OF THE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

WASHINGTON

May 15, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

From: Charlie Schultze C '- S

Subject: The Economic Outlook

Working with OMB and Treasury we have prepared a new economic forecast through 1981. It will form the basis for the spring budget presentation. Tomorrow (Friday) at our bi-weekly meeting I will summarize it for you. This memo spells out the basis for our forecast.

1. Recent Developments

After a moderate decline in March, economic activity fell very sharply in April.

o Employment fell by 480,000; aggregate hours worked in manufacturing dropped by 2-1/2 percent in April to a level 3-1/2 percent below the January peak.

o Domestic auto sales fell by 21 percent, to 6 million units for the month as a whole, and have fallen to an even lower level in the past 20 days. (See Exhibit 1.)

o The volume of other retail sales fell far less steeply; April sales were down only slightly from March, but were 2 percent below the first quarter average. (Exhibit 1.)

o Industrial production in April fell by 1.9 percent and was 2-1/2 percent below the first quarter average; the April declines were widespread throughout virtually all industries.

Surprisingly, housing starts -- after a large decline over the six months between September and March -- declined very little further in April (from 1,041,000 to 1,019,000). I have some question about the validity of the data. Housing permits did fall steeply from 932,000 units to 800,000. Usually, when the housing start and permit data tell a different story, the permits are more likely to be correct.

EBectromatlc Copy Made for Prese!Riatlon PurpoNs -2-

A very rough calculation made by the Federal Reserve staff suggests that if retail sales, including autos, now level off and remain constant in May and June at the April level, total personal consumption expenditures will decline at an annual rate of 9 percent between the first and second quarters. Combined with our own estimate of changes in other sectors of the economy this would imply a drop in total GNP at an annual rate of about 8 percent in the second quarter. Other rough estimating techniques suggest a decline in the neighborhood of a 6 to 7 percent range. In any event, on the basis of statistics to date, the second quarter is likely to show a very sizable drop in GNP.

By virtually every sign, therefore, the economy is now in a sharp decline.

2. Some Moderating Factors

Two of the principal causes of the current recession either are now or shortly will be moderating.

A. Interest rates. (See Exhibits 2A through 2C.) The steep climb and unprecedented level of interest rates, combined with particular aspects of the March 14 credit control package, played a major role in speeding the pace of recession.

o -Housing. Flows into the thrift institutions dried up; such funds as they did get were very costly; mortgage interest rates rose to levels that choked off most would-be buyers; and the 22 percent cost of construction financing put builders in a vise.

o Auto loan policies were made much more restrictive by many banks; faced with a very high cost of funds and a relatively unprofitable auto loan business, many banks elected to stay within their "voluntary" ceiling on total loan expansion by sharply curtailing their auto loans.

o The exceedingly high cost of funds tended to push business firms into still more tight-fisted inventory policies, leading to a decline in orders to their suppliers.

o We keep hearing stories about a substantial consumer withdrawal from the use of credit cards, beginning in April. While cash -3-

purchases have been substituted for credit purchases, the fact that retail sales in April (outside of autos) were about the same as in March does not suggest that the overall effect on consumer purchases was large. (The advance data on retail sales are often revised, ·however, in subsequent months.)

The recent fall in interest rates, which has been proceeding at an unprecedented speed should ease these problems. (Special steps may be needed in the case of bank auto loans. This is being pursued I with Volcker.)

There is no single good number on mortgage interest rates. They have also been falling, but the pattern has varied substantially, even within the same area. For conventional mortgages, the current level is probably in the 12-1/2 to 14 percent range. Large-scale mortgage lending at "acceptable" rates will occur after savings and loan institutions begin to attract funds and in some cases repair skimpy liquidity positions.

B. Consumer purchasing power. In the past 18 months, the inflation in consumer prices has been substantially greater than the rise in wages, even when inflation is measured without the distortions introduced into the housing component of the CPl. (See Exhibit 3.) In the first half of this year, consumer price inflation (excluding housing) will run at an annual rate above 12 percent while wages will be climbing at about 9-1/2 percent. For reasons that you know, the rate of inflation is likely to drop significantly in the second half of the year. Measured "correctly" the decline in inflation will be less than the decline that will show up in the CPI, since the second half CPI inflation rate will give great weight to the fall in mortgage rates. Nevertheless, the current erosion of real purchasing power, while not fully eliminated, should slow substantially, and (we believe) almost disappear in 1981. One of the major forces tending to reduce consumer purchases should be markedly weakened. -4-

3. Comparison with Other Recessions (See Exhibit 4.)

As the gloomy statistics for April poured in, some observers began to speculate that the 1980 recession could be as steep as the 1974-75 downturn. Should that be the case, unemployment could be expected to exceed 10 percent at the peak. There are, however, some major differences between now and 1974-75.

There have been six postwar recessions in the United States, not counting the present one. Three of those recessions were very mild -- the peak-to-trough declines in GNP ranged between 1/2 and 1-1/2 percent. These very mild recessions occurred in 1949, 1960-61, and 1969-70. Any change in GNP can be divided into two parts -- (i) the change in sales to final users (as consumer goods, business investment, exports, and government purchases) and (ii) the change in inventory investment. In the three mild recessions final sales actually rose; the GNP decline resulted solely from a fall in inventory investment. (See the first set of bars in Exhibit 4.)

Two recessions were medium sized (1954 and 1958). Final sales declined by about 1 to 2 percent and there were moderate declines in inventory investment. (Shown in the second set of bars in Exhibit 4.)

The 1974-75 recession was huge. What made it so was not the size of the decline in final sales -- they fell by 2.2 percent, only a little more than in the two medium-sized recessions. But there was ·a very large drop in inventory investment. At the peak of the boom in 4Q 1973, inventories were huge and were being accumulated at a massive rate; by the lQ 1975 they were being liquidated at a very fast clip. This swing from inventory building to inventory liquidation added 3-1/2 percentage points to the decline in GNP, and made that recession about twice as large as the prior medium-sized recessions.

The current recession was not preceded by an inventory buildup. In the last nine months, i.nventory investment has been quite small. There is likely to be some inventory liquidation as sales decline, but our economy does not enter this recession with an overhang of excessive inventories.

Moreover, the 1974-75 recession ended a simultaneous worldwide boom. All countries had been building inventories heavily in 1973. All crashed together. That is not the situation now. Cautious inventory policies have generally been followed worldwide, and the current outlook is for a leveling off, but not a significant decline, in the aggregate GNP for the rest of the OECD countries. -5-

While a drastic fall in final sales could make up for the lack of inventory imbalance in the current situation, our view is that a recession of the depth of the 1974-75 experience is unlikely.

4. Some Question Marks

The size and duration of the current recession will be particularly dependent upon the answer to two key questions:

First, will businessmen stick fairly closely to their investment plans as formulated in late 1979 and early 1980, or will they reduce them sharply as the recession proceeds?

As reported in surveys early this year, business firms in the aggregate planned to keep investment about constant (adjusted for inflation) in 1980. The incoming flow of contracts and orders for plant and equipment in the first three months of the year would be roughly consistent with this outlook.

Historically, however, as a recession gathers momentum, business firms reduce their investment plans. The question is, by how much are they likely to do so? Our outlook assumes that they do so only moderately, so that business investment falls only 6-1/2 percent during the current recession -- a smaller decline than in four out of the six earlier postwar recessions. (See Exhibit 5.)

Second, will consumers -- who until recently appeared to be buying ahead to beat inflation -- pull in their horns sharply as they see layoffs mount and begin to worry about their own economic security? Should this occur, a very large reduction in retail sales and consumer goods production could take place. Our forecast allows for a slight rise in the consumer saving rate, from 3 percent in the first quarter to an average of just under 4 percent during late 1980 and all of 1981. But we have not based our forecast on the assumption of a large swing in consumer attitudes.

The April retail sales data do not seem to indicate a dramatic shift in consumer spending habits -- although they do suggest that the saving rate may already have risen to the 4 percent level that we have forecast for later.

5. The Forecast (See Exhibit 6.)

Putting all of this information together, making the judgments described above, and assuming the Congress passes your budget intact (including the import fee) , we forecast a medium-sized recession, as follows: -6-

1980 1981

Change in GNP (4Q/4Q) -2.5 1.1 Change in CPI (4Q/4Q) 12.6 9.9 Unemployment rate (4Q) 7.7 8.6

Output and Employment. The fall in GNP from its peak in the first quarter of 1980 to its trough in the first quarter of 1981 is 3.3 percent. This decline is slightly larger than the average for the ·two medium-sized postwar recessions (3 percent), but much smaller than the 5.7 percent decline in 1974-75.

The recovery is brought about principally by the lower interest rates, which turn housing and auto sales around, and by the lower inflation rate, which slows the erosion of consumer purchasing power.

The forecast recovery in 1981 is quite weak. Unemployment continues to rise, since GNP doesn't grow fast enough to absorb all of the new entrants to the labor force. The reasons for this weakness are principally two:

A. Since we have forecast no major inventory liquidation during the recession, we get no boost from an inventory rebound in the recovery.

B. With no tax cut of any kind throughout 1981, the Federal budget becomes extremely restrictive. The combination of the windfall profits tax, the increase in social security taxes on January 1, 1981, and the rising effective tax rates from inflation all tend to "fight" against recovery. If budget expenditures and revenues are calculated as they would be at a 6 percent unemployment rate, the swing toward budget restraint is shown to be unprecedented. (See Exhibit 7.) From the second half of 1979 to the latter half of 1980, the swing toward budget restraint is about $30 billion -- a sizable but not massive shift. But in 1981, there is a further $60 billion shift to restraint.

The magnitude of the budget restraint is partially masked in the actual budget by the weak recovery and the rise in unemployment, which tend to depress revenues and raise unemployment compensation outlays. Hence, the actual budget is barely in balance. But to balance the budget at an 8+ percent unemployment rate is, by any standard, a very restrictive policy. Nothing remotely approaching this has been done in the postwar period. -7-

You will note in Exhibit 6 that our forecast for 1980 is about in line with other major forecasting groups (except Wharton). But in 1981 we, and the staff of the Federal Reserve, have a much weaker recovery than three outside groups. We have only had a chance to investigate the reason for the difference in the case of the DRI model. DRI assumes that by late 1981 the consumer saving rate falls further to 2.9 percent! We, on the other hand, have it rising a bit to about 3-3/4 percent. This difference in consumer behavior, plus a slightly more optimistic view of several other components of GNP, account for the larger recovery (3.3 percent) in the DRI forecast compared to our own (1.1 percent).

Inflation. We expect the inflation rate, as measured by the CPI, to drop slightly below 10 percent during 1981. It should go lower than that for awhile this fall as the decline in interest rates affects the index, but that can't persist. (We assume that OPEC oil prices rise 3 percent faster than inflation in 1981, while decontrol of domestic crude continues.) We see a small decrease in wage inflation in 1981 (about 1/2 percent). But, as far as employer costs are concerned, this is offset by the large increase in payroll taxes on January 1, 1981. < Final Notes

We began this forecast exercise about five weeks ago and completed it almost two weeks ago. It -- along with the other forecasts -- probably fails to take fully into account the most recent developments.

A. The forecast probably understates the speed of the current recession; the decline in the second quarter will probably be much larger than the 4-1/2 percent rate now incorporated · in our forecast.

B. On the other hand, neither our forecast nor the other forecasts allows for the extremely rapid speed with which interest rates have already come down.

It is at least conceivable that we may have a recession that is, on the one hand, much steeper than our latest forecast. But the recession may also be shorter than we now forecast, with signs of recovery by late fall. It is too early to make a judgment, but we should keep this possibility in mind.

Attachments Exhibit 1

1978 IV=lOO

120 .------�

Real Retail Sales Excluding Automotive '\ ·-·---.· -·-·----· ......

. .---·-· _.__...... ,...... -·

Auto Sales (Units)

40�J�._�F��M�._�A��M���J_._J���A��S�._O���N��D�+-�J���J�

1979 y First 10 days of May.

Millions of units (annual rate)

Housing Starts

J F M A M J J A D J F M A M 1979 1980 INTEREST RATES -:--· ------. 2e ' " I ____::,. II Prime Rate / .. I I I I I I

I 0

1s--+- I I

,, I

�\ : 16 :1 I f, :I I I • I \ I I: I .�I . ,' 12- ��\-. I , \ ', ' I I " r'- ' l "\, 10 ,,,. - -. ·1 ' &,....ooI ' I

•

8 ' ·, ' , " ' ' . , . ' ,. . , 3-month Certificates r of Deposit , \ I \ , - \ I 6 \ \ - , - _, '\.

-- -�------t---+---+-----+------4--4----1------... ---- ·- - + ··1.. � -4 I : I 1972 1973 197-4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 PRIME RATE 20 '· I

-r··--·----· .·

, . , ·r· . , I J ' April 1 18_ 1980

16

12 i August 1974

18

a

- - -·-·----� ..

-3 -2 -1 Peak +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +1 0 +1 1 .

Months ta---··-3-MONTH·-- ··-- -- CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT '

...... I ·1' ts-� I ,'March ', 1980 I •

' •

' •

12

July 1974 • • 10

8

/. / 6 ____ i

��----t---1----� .,-1 Peak +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 N () Months Percent change (annual rate)

14 Forecast ·------+ 12.2 12 1/ Consum- Wages- er 2/ prices- 10.7 9.9 10 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.3

8.1 8

6

4

2

2nd half

1/ Adjusted hourly earnings index. Z/ Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Percent change from peak to trough

Average of Average of 1974-75 2 medium 3 mild recession recessions recessions

2 - 1- Inven- Final tory Real sales invest- GNP ment � 0 +. 7 � � - . 8 � -1.4 � -1.5 -1.5 -2 r- � - -2.2

-2.9

-3.6 -4 1- -

-6 1- -5.7 - Exhibit 5

Percent Changes in Real Business Fixed Investment During Recessions

1948-49 -16.0

1953-54 -3.9

1957-58 -14.8

1960-61 -4.5

1969-70 -8.1

1974-75 -16.6

1980-81 (forecast) -6.4

Note.--Based on specific peaks and troughs. Data for 1969-70 adjusted to exclude autos, trucks, and buses. Comparative Forecasts

1979 1980 1981 Admin. FRB DRI Chase WEFA Admin. FRB DRI Chase WEFA Actual 5/2 5/14 4/25 3/24 4/27 5/2 5/14 4/25 3_/_24 4/27

Percent change ,04/04

Real GNP 1.0 -2.5 -3.3 -2.0 -3.5 -0.9 1.1 0.2 3.3 2.5 2.5

CPI 12.7 12.6 13.5 14.4 14.2 13.9 9.9 9.2 10.0 10.2 10.0

Level, Q 4

Unemployment rate 5.9 7.7 8.3 7.4 8.1 7.2 8.6 9.1 7.9 8.4 7.4 (percent)

FRB = Federal Reserve Board Staff

DR! = Data Resources, Inc. (Otto Eckstein)

Chase = Chase Econometrics

WEFA = Wharton (Larry Klein) Exhibit 7

Budget Receipts and Expenditures Calculated at a Constant 6 Percent Unemployment Rate

(billions of dollars at annual rates)

Expendi- Surplus or Receipts tures Deficit

1976 H 339 369 -30 l

H 355 379 -24 2

1977 H 376 - l 401 25

H - 2 383 431 48

1978 H - l 412 447 36

H2 445 471 -26

1979 H - l 477 491 14

H2 517 528 -11

1980 H 559 563 - l 4

H 611 592 19 2

1981 H 690 614 76 l

H 735 653 82 2

THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

WASHINGTON

May 15, 1980

EYES ONLY

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT . C L--S From: Charlie Schultze

Subject: Industrial Production in April

Tomorrow (Friday, May 16} at 9:30 a.m., the Federal Reserve Board will release its estimate of industrial production in April.

The total was down 1.9 percent �- the third successive monthly decline, and the largest reduction since February 1975.

Reductions in industrial output were very widespread last month; among the major categories of output, only mining showed any increase. Declines were largest in autos (11 percent}, steel (5 percent}, and construction supplies (3-1/2 percent}, reflecting the concentration of the recession in autos and homebuilding. Production of business equipment fell only 0.3 percent.

Monthly reductions of 2 percent are not uncommon in a period of recession. In the 1974-75 recession, industrial output fell for six successive months. Monthly declines averaged 2.5 percent during that half year; the largest decline was 4.5 percent. In that recession, a large part of the fall in industrial output reflected efforts by business to work down excess inventories. That should not be a problem this year, since inventories have been kept in reasonably good balance with sales. Nevertheless, fairly large declines in production will continue for at least a few months, since businesses will have to adjust production downward to the lower rate of consumer spending to avoid an undesired buildup of stocks.

E�ectromatlc Copy M�u�� for Presewatlon !PJ�9'�©��$ · • Yol. 38, No. 19 · Page� 1225-1304 ;.�; :·!.;e :· ···.·May: 10; 1980. · • ·;�·:.:.·• . ·,·� .- . �- .. r- ·_ .. - .·.1 . , . ·: .J_; ·

: . I ' • . 'ly , ') . t .._. : '!_ -� ' • •.· . .(!

, ',1 I The Auto ·crisis· -.� ..

. ;· Industry pleads for help (126�) . • ' I . � . Fuel economy standards' (12�7) •i ' '· . ' t ; . . t . · .. ;

. ' � .. �B®�C,�!f�®�® · .1 .

. g@ff�li'®fl®�@llil'!P>&!� ... '' THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

WASHINGTON

May 15, 1980

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT ____ ....

From: Charlie SchultzeC�S

Subject: Gasoline Prices

In a memorandum dated May 5 containing background material for the May 6 Quadriad meeting, I included information on (wholesale) spot market prices for petroleum. That showed the following (with yesterday's prices added):

Petroleum 12/28/79 5/1/80 5/14/80

Saudi crude per barrel $24.00 $26.00 $28.00 Fuel oil, per gallon .85 .77 .7725 Reg. gasoline, per gallon 1.16 .98 .995 (N.Y. harbor)

The gasoline data do not reflect what has been happening to retail gasoline prices at the pump. They are wholesale, and like spot market prices for crude they fluctuate much more erratically than do refined petroleum prices to consumers. Consumer price index and agricultural price data indicate that consumer prices have been rising steadily.

Service Station Prices

USDA estimate-­ CPI--All cities u.s. average leaded regular unleaded

--$/gallon--

Dec. 1978 .659 .682 June 1979 .856 .864 Oct. 1979 1. 006 1. 01 Dec. 1979 1.018 1.04 Jan. 1980 1. 086 1.11 Feb. 1980 1.159 1.18 March 1980 1.202 1.23 April 1980 n.a. 1. 26

IEUectro�atDe Copy MaJde for PNSatii'Vliltloro PurpoMS -2-

I should also point out, however, that the May 2 Lundberg Letter reports that their survey, taken between April 11 and April 25, indicates that retail gasoline prices across all grades may have fallen by $.004 per gallon in late April. . · ,. ·, ,_: <·>' ·.·1 .. . . ·' •· ··::

THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 5/15/80

Mr. President: 11

Bill Cable called to � say Simon amendment to delete

.5 bil of 1.7 bil MX program defeated by 150�250 vote. ·\ . . : '·

Phil

'; ·.

' �: .

., . -· · · . . · . .

. ·' ; . � .. ' ·· ·: .� · ...__ · /\ · .;_; ' ;":1·: . . ;{;.> . :- . ; :"·{j}· r:r.�trO&illtl�··copyM�. ffor �reser'lllltioa;. rP'urp�$ . . · . < '· :.]�ji EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503

May 15, 1980 � MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

____ .... FROM: James T. Mcintyre, Jr. �

SUBJECT: Your Administration's udget Record

The attached table shows what has happened to the funding of many well-known domestic programs since you took office. I plan to circulate it to the members of your senior staff for their use in speeches or public appearances, but will not make it a public document. A longer, more comprehensive version of your budget record will be completed shortly, and it is intended to be available to the public.

Attachment

ElectrosiatDc Copy Made for �reserv�tlon Purposes CHANGES IN SELECTED FEDERAL PROGRAMS,

FY 1978 - FY 1981 (revised)

May 1980 Outlays (Millions $) Unless Otherwise Noted 1980 1978 1981 ll!U. % Change Ford Host (3-year) Budget Recent (January) (March) Est. Education (all education numbers are in budget authority)*

Basic Skills 86 2,950 4,233 5,679 5,496 Components: Head Start 73 475 735 825 820 Follow Through -2 45 44 59 44 - - ---�--· Basic Skills --·· .. -- 23 3 12 35 40 40 Education for the Disadvantaged 55 2,285 3,265 3,687 3,536 Youth Initiative n.a. 900 900 Special Vocational programs for the Disadvantaged 17 133 154 168 156

Education for the Handicapped 57 1,320 1,980 2,066 2,066 . Components: Education for the Handicapped 135 470 1,049 1,102 1,102 Rehabilitation Services 13 850 931 964 964

Bilingual-Indian Education 117 138 248 299 299 Components: Bilingual Education 113 90 167 192 192 Bilingual Vocation Training 100 3 5 '6 6 Indian Education 124 45 76 101 101

Higher Education 49 2,277 3,450 3,543 3,393 Components: Basic Educational Opportunity Grants 17 1,844 2,262 2,309 2,159 Supplement Opportunity Grants n.a. 370 370 370 College Work Study 120 250 550 550 550 Trio Programs 119 73 148 160 160 Developing Institutions 27 110 110 140 140 Graduate Educational Opportunities Program n.a. 9 13 13 CLEO n.a. 1 1 1

* For the majority of education programs, funds appropriated one year are spent by states and local governments and other recipients in the following year. Therefore, budget authority is a better measure of Administration policy than outlays, which ' · tend to reflect the priorities of the previous year. Outlays (Millions $) Unless Otherwise Noted 1978 1980 1981 1981 % Change Ford Most (3-year) Budget Recent (January) (March) Est. CETA 1 Youth 234 738 2,3o6Y 2,561 1 2,461y Components: Summer Jobs 66 525 794 872 872 Job Corps 159 213 489 579 579 Youth Adult Conservation Corps 232 277 171 Youth Incentive Entitlement Pilot Youth Employment and Training Program n.a. 7 1,056y 1,056 Youth Conservation and Community Improvement Program 147�v Public Service Employment3/ 273 1,400 3,768 4,415 3,828 Components: Title II-D n.a. 2,024 2,437 2,350 Title VI n.a. 1,744 1,978 1,478

Private Sector Initiatives n.a. 164 309 309

Total CETA 115 4,141 8,576 9,709 8,884

Other Employment & Training!/ 31 1,'208 1,465 1,590 1,577

Total, Employment & Training (function 504) 96 5,349 10,053 11,299 10,458

Health

Health Care Financing Medicare 54 24,297 33,547 37,349 ·37 1433 Medicaid §./ 32 111 816�/14 1215 15,873 15,543 Health Services Categorical Programs Community Health 44 209 311 312 301 Maternal & child health -7 288 281 268 268 Family planning 45 103 136 154 149 National health service corps. 179 ?.9 65 111 81 Migrant health 16 32 36 36 37 Indian health service 52 436 654 673 661 Adolescent health n.a .•. 6 13 8

Prevention of health problems 44 549 763 858 788 Outlays (Millions $) Unless Otherwise Noted 1978 1980 1981 1981 % Change Ford Most (3-year) Budget Recent (Janudry) (March) Est.

Economic Development Urban development actiongrarits n.a. 180 365 365 Community development block grants 26 3,112 3,779 ·3,805 3,908 Fair Housing assistance grants n.a. 1 6 6 EDA Economic development assistance grants 99 274 481 776 545 ·HUD Neighborhood self-help development program n.a. 9 10 7 Neighborhood reinvestment corporation n.a. 12 13 13 Minority business assistance 51 105 132 159 159 Women's business assistance (excludes loans) n.a. 2 14 14

Mass Transit 7/ Mass transitcapital assistance (obligations) 72 2,112 3,116 3,718 3,638 Mass transit operation expenses (obli�ations) 65 775 1,180 1,275 1,275

Housing

Subsidized housing programs (housing assistance): Subsidized housing programs 78 3,084 4,372 5,494 5,485 Payments for operations of low income housing 45 560 773 811 811 Congregate services programs n.a. 4 6 6 Troubled projects operating subsidy n.a. 39 103 96 Total of above 76 3,644 5,187 6,415 6,399

Housing for the elderly or handicapped fund (Section 202) -5 738 700 700 700

Natural Resources and Environment

8/ Pollution control and abatement construction grants -20 5,160- 4,244 3,950 4,155 Other 53 753 1,014 1,157 1,150 � Water resources 15 3,423 4,203 4,121 3,923

Conservation & land management 60 1,370 2,114 2,245 2,186

Recreational re·sources -11 1,381 1,340 1,499 1,232

Other natural resources 34 1,092 1,365 1,468 1,459 Outlays (Millions $) Unless Otherwise Noted 1978 1980 1981 1981 % Change Ford r1ost (3-year) Budget Rec-ent (January) (March) Est.

. Income Security

Soci'al Security

OASI 54 79,588 104,004 121,197 122,596 DI 36 12,786 15,339 17,266 17,322 Inter fund -1 -1,577 -1,477 -1,542 -1,593 Total Social Security 52 90,797 117,866 136,921 138,325

Public Assistance (mainly AFDC) 14 6,543 7,048 7,432 7,432

2,200 Low Income Energy Assistance n.a. 1,660 2,400

Food Stamps 99 4,712 8,678 9,656 9,386 WIC 1,729 47 735 903 860 Child Nutrition 1,847 153 3,290 3,120 2,979 Spcecial milk 533 18 150 106 114 Child nutrition reform 2,000 Total of abovelO/ 93 6,930 12,853 13,784 13,340

14,646 18,752 18,232 Unemployment Compensation 32 13,861

11/ 11,565 13,034 12,955 Veterans Income Security 41 9,195

5,737 7,411 8,317 8,414 Compensation 47 3,185 3,617 4,032 3,856 Pensions 21

-42 3,328 2,259 1,943 1,943 Veterans Education Training and Rehabilitation

Hospital and medical care for veterans

25 4,693 5,926 6,069 5,873 Medical care and hospital services -134 127 -9 -321 -297 Third Party Reimbursements (proposed) 364 269 381 354 Construction -3 205 225 242 267 Medical administration, research, and other 30 5,135 6,411 6,370 6,197 Subtotal 21 Footnotes

1/ Total youth outlays are less than the sum of the individual programs to account for an outlay adjustment factor included to bring total outlay estimates closer in line with experience.

2/ In 1981 under the Administration's youth education, training, and employment initiative, several categorical youth programs are replaced by a new grant program emphasizing development of basic literacy and computational skills.

The separation of public service employment programs in II-D and VI occurred with the October 1978 CETA amendments. y Includes funding for the u.s. Employment Service, WIN, Title V of the Older Americans Act, and federal administrative costs in the Department of Labor.

�/ Ford budget estimate for medicaid under current law. Ford budget proposed to eliminate medicaid and various other programs and replace with a block grant totaling $12,302 million.

6/ Grants plus administration. Includes CHAP. CHAP was zero prior to 1981. It was $403 million in 1981 in the January budget and $15 million in March.

7/ Includes UMTA, WMATA, and FAP energy.

!!_/ The Ford budget estimate was considerably overstated; while budget authority of $4.5 billion was proposed and enacted, actual outlays in 1978 were $3,187 million.

Approximate; includes a rough adjustment for a functional reclassification.

Ford budget proposed major changes in the food areas; the total above is comparable but the components are not.

11/ Compensation and pensions are the major components of veterans income security, but do not represent the total. • I

THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

ERA BRIEFING FOR BUSINESS EXECUTIVES ON ERA May 15, 1980 2:15 p.m. East Room ��·\ ?fJV From: Sarah Weddington

I. PURPOSE

The briefing has been scheduled to solidify business support for the ERA. It has been planned in cooperation with the National Business Council for ERA and the League of Women Voters.

II. BACKGROUND, PARTICIPANTS AND PRESS PLAN

A. Background

The participants will begin the day with luncheon in the State Dining Room. ,t\fter your remarks they will move to Room 450 OEOB and the program which I will moderate is as follows:

2:45 - 2:50 Welcome 2:50 - 3:25 The importance of business to ERA ratification *Earle Angstadt, President McCall Pattern Company 3:25 - 3:45 ERA - Legal Aspects Lloyd Cutler 3:45 - 4:15 Panel discussion - Action by business to win ERA

Madeline Appel, ERA Chair League of Women Voters

*Alan Tripp, President Product Resources International

*Jack Conway, Senior Fellow The Aspen Institute

*Member of the Board of the National Business Council for ERA

B. Participants

The list of key participants is attached.

!Electrostatic Copy M�de for Preeewatlon r?urpoees - .. . . ; .. .. .

-2-

C. Press Plan

.Ther�·will be a press opportunity for coverage of

· 2:15. ··,. ,the_::Presidem't's_ remark_s.at· Iri addition,

: .. , ; -:·. : 'p 20 . p i·'- a proximate,ly , re orters ._who cover. 'fin_ancial news ' -: �. ,?e · n s ¢ ··:-· ·: -� d·:-�6�en' ·· ·iss. 8, :ha �:.bee'h ·invit¢·d.·-. to_,·att.end the '·.· , ;· �entire :;briefing�· 'Included are representatives of . e ' a · busin �s ' news :· s�ry:i'c�s :: �nd: newspape'r' 9h i�·s with 'several papers -fr( uridi.t:ified 'states . Reporters will , v h of . •: recie e a spacL:i:'1 ' andout . information on the new o to g ais, for fed·er· ai · cbrit'ract dollars women-owned firms·.

IV. Other Information

Information on the ERA vote in Illinois will be forwarded this evening when it is completed. The materials on ERA for the business briefing are attached.

V. Talking points have been provided by Achsah Nesmith •

. ,,

·- .· •\ ,:·. ..,

,,

,,, 1,§'-:,·· -;'·.-.

�---· -:·,_, < •• •• •• -·'

. ' � --�

Attendees for the ERA Br iefing for Business Executives fall into four categories:

1. Chief Executive Officers of Corpor­ ations

2. Presidents of National Women's Organ­ izations

3. State Presidents of League of Wom en Voters

4. Women members of the National Finance Committee, Carter-Mondale Campaign

The major corporate executives who have accepted are listed.

' ,,•· · Busi ness Participants

John Adams

,, " President Ada_ms Indusl;ries

:··vernon· R)Aiderr .�< · ·,·: .. cl1'airrriari•·· · · :: · · s� B Ma_ssachu tts-'" usiness and• Development. Council ' ' '' � ·�·. • ' ' I. • ... -_" ·' · Dr. B:erijami£1 H> Alexander · Pr�s!dent·. · · Chicago State University

James F. Andrews Editor and Chairman of the Board Univers al Press Syndicate

Ear le K. Angstadt President McCall Pattern Company

Alex Bernhardt President Bernhardt Industries

Archie R. Boe Chairman Allstate Ins urance Company

Sara B. Burnett W. Linton Howard, Inc.

E. Laurence Chalmers President Art Institute of Chicago

Barbara Chicatelli Director Hemisphere Development Corporation

·Merrell E. Clark, Jr. President The .Association of the Bar of the City of New York : •' Maria.Com daris Vice • Bre si dent ·Comdaris Coff ee Company

JackT. Conway Board of Directo rs Atlantic Richfield Company

·,·· .· )- ' - 2

<- Marlowe. Cook (Former Senator) . Cook, Pe�cell, Hansen and Henderson

. · . ; '... · . '·· . ; . . ·.. .. : : ,;i . Lawrence J. ·Coremier ' · < · · · • chief;Exectitive.officer .. (;: · · ·�·- ·Ebony oil orpo,ration • ' . . _j. • j. f .':' ' ' - . � • • • ' < '

Don•.w � 'Cornweil · ·,. J:•·· \ri' ce President

· :'GoldrrtanSachs : • ': • : •• �: .. : .. '' :' • . J • Richard ·cummings' · President Allian; ce Enterprise Corporation

A. D. Fra zier S�nior Vice President Citizens andSou thern Bank

Arthur H. Fredston Board of Directors Winthrop,Sti ms on, Putnam and Roberts

Leroy M. Fykes Leroy M. Fykes and Associates

Dorothy Gevinson President Women in Government Relations

Joel Goldberg President Rich's, Inc.

Melvin J. Gordon Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.

• Vef;na.E;liza beth Gordon President

yQ<}tsie Roll Industries, Inc• . · -: ... �·-. William:;A� Hewitt :chairman and Chief Executive Officer .. · ·Dee�e and Company

James. B�·Horton �President Hal Publications �. 3

, Richar,d Laster

· Exeeuiive.Vice President G�ner�� FoOds c;::orporation

�oui�e Quarles Lawson : . · .

· · .: · . President,. ' ··Illinois s�rvic� Fed�ral -> .. . · . · · i B�ilce Lle\Veilyn",·, . ; · . :·Director.··.: .' :: ":-Ov�ri�as·(>rivate, Investment Corporation

Ali'enH. Neuharth. :·ch�irrri iln . Gannett Newspapers

Fred Panzer Vice President, Government Relations Tobacco Institute

Caroline Pezzullo President Caroline Pezzullo Associates

James K. Polk President Management Manpower Associates

Lee Sessions Vice President Citizens and Southern Bank

Herbert J. Si egel Chairman Chris-Craft Industries, Inc.

John Stevens Senior Vice President 1st National Bank of Atlanta

Jerome H •.. Stone . Cha'irman and Chief Executive Officer St'on� · Container Corporation . � · '. ', . John··Toups: •:·· · · . President

, · .' Ptan,fting Research Corporation ··;·f.".'< ' . _ . Marvin:s� 'Traub President ••Bloomingdale Brothers

Alan z:Tripp··, President Product Resources, International :·.· i

. 4 --� .

Fred L. Turner ·- · -,· .

Cha"irman. and Chief. Executive. Officer •• i, ... McDonald's Corporation • • ' {> ·,

. ..

· Jeannette Wagner . · · ·. . >'\free I''resident'

· · : , -\E�te .tal.IC!er-.·International · ' . _ . : , :, ; ��g. ·:·�� . . · - �ri·�.: :·,_ ib . . .R . Vice cliairman·

· ·Georgia' o.emoc ratic Party . .•... ·�-: : . .� ' ·, .. . Julia M� w·alsh thairmari Julia M. Walsh and Sons

Norman Weschler President I. Magnin

Lloyd Whita ker President Office Development Division Cousins Mortgage Equity and Investment

Mort Zukerman Chairman Boston Properties, Inc.

- � . . PRES DENTS OF NATIONAL WOMEN'S ORGANIZATIONS

May 15, 1980

American Association of Mary Boyette University Women Representing President, Mary Grefe

Association of Junior Margaret Graham Leagues President

B'Nai B'rith Grace Day President

ERAmerica Suone Cotner Executive Director

Federally Employed Women Dorothy Nelms President

Girl Scouts of the USA Mary Frances Peters \Vashing ton Representative

Girls' Clubs of America Mary Jane Sprague President

League of Women Voters Ruth Hinerfeld President

Mexican-American National Wilma Espinosa Women's Association President

National Association of Patricia Hill Burnett Commissions on Women President

National Asso ciation of Ana Maria Perrera Cuban-American Women President

National Hook-Up of Shirley Smail-Rougeau Black Women Executive Director

National Conference of Angela Cabrera Puerto Ri can Women President

National Council of Sheila Feldman Jewish Women Co-Vice Chair Women's Issues 2

National Council of Dovey Roundtree Negro Women Counsel

National Federation of Julie Arri Business and Professional President Women's Clubs, Inc.

National Federation of Lorraine Kennedy Democratic Women \V ashington Representative

National \Vomen's Political Kathy Wilson Caucus Vice President

President's Advisory Committee Lynda Johnson Robb for Women Chair

Women's Equity Action Carol Grossman League President

Cris Candela Out-going President

Young Women's Christian Nancy Skaller up Association Vice-President-at-Large •.:!

•'

Office of Sarah Wedding ton

SUMMARY OF ERA

FOR BUSINESS EXECUTIVES

,, . ... May 15, 1980

Despit�(-'c6n�ideiabl� >e�otional debate over a period of years, the Equal Rights "Arrien9ment,to the Constitution is a simple docum ent: . .. · .. . . ' . ,r' � ' • ' Se�tibn l: Equality of righ ts under the ·law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State on account of sex.

Sec tion 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appro priate legislation, the provisions of th is article.

Sec tion 3. This amendment shall take effect two years af ter the date of ratification.

THE STATUS OF RATIFICATION:

To become the 27th Amendment to the Constitution, ERA must be ratified by 38 states before 1982. Thirty-five states have ratified since the Amendm ent originally passed the Congress.

The States wh ich have not ratified are:

lllino is Virginia Alabama Missouri North Carolina Mississippi South Car olina Arkansas Nevada Georgia Louisiana Arizona Florida Oklahoma Utah

THE REASONS FOR ERA:

Simple justice guaranteed by the Constitution

The Equal Rights Amendment would est_ablish a single syst�!ll'· of justice. The

· ba�ic principle of the am endment is that sex· is. not!� permissible fac.tor in - ;::_cletermining legal righ ts for _anyone. ERA does not state that m.en·and women

· :.are� the same; it says that the law cannot treat th�m 'differently .. solely · ' -!J.�au se of their gender. ) Women do not currently enjoy the same Constitutional protection extended to men. Court decisions have declined to extend protection to women, even l.inder the Fourteenth Amendment. 2

Repeal of dis criminatory laws

Bec�us� ·of the movement toward equality and the ERA, many dis criminatory -'laW's:have been re pealed. · However, this movement toward equality could ·mqve .backwards if the ERA is rejected and dis criminatory laws could again

_ be 'p�,sse:d.Il)'tJ:le future.

,::,: \.·· ·. ' ... ;' ; ···· .. ; >The:u.s�··ci�fLRig�ts Coin�ission has shown there are 800 F�deral laws alone ? : �her.e there .is a difference Ifl't e treatment of m eh and wornen. '; .

�:ci��h's ·.r'ights currently vary from state to state; if a woman ;moves or ·cros§e·s a.state.line, her rights change. ; •.' . ' ".· , . : �� ..;: A matte·r of human rights

President Jimmy Carter, a strong supporter of ERA has termed passage of ERA a cornerstone of America's human rights policy. In a statement to National Magazines in 1979 he sated:

"Because the principle of equality between men and women could be changed easily to reduce current safeguards - The only way to achieve full legal equality for women is to ratify the Equal Rights

Amendment •••

It simply gives women the legal righ ts that every human being deserves

and that American men now enjoy.•.

I do not belive my daughter should have fewer rights than my sons. Only an Amendment in our Constitution can guarantee women the same rights and opportunities."

A recognition of the changin g role of American women

The ERA will protect the righ ts of homemakers and working women. Increasingly individual women fill both roles - in many cases at an economic disadvantage.

o 51% of American women work outside the home - making 59¢ on the average for every $1.00 men earn.

o 25% of American families are headed by women while tax, insurance, inheritance and pension policies in many states place women heads of households at a disadvantage compared to men who head households.

o Our economic welfare depends on using the maximum .�kills of our Citizens through equality of opportunity, education a��·· training - without regard to artifical barriers erected because of gende·r.

. . WHO ,SUPPORTS ERA?

The last six Presidents of the United States, both political parties, the Congress (reaffirmed ERA support through the extension of the deadline to 1982) women's 3

organizations, organized labor, civil rights groups, over 100 major professional associations� most major church denominations, and the National Business Council ' for ERA.

WHY HASN'T ERA PASSED?

0 There· i�. misunder�tanding of what the la\V is and what it does- some of

� . ) this is�_deliberate confusion by.opponents building upon fear�; . . -· . . ! ··.. . . .

·'I . ,, o 'Propgner1ts: h�ve not ,spoken with a clear and . single voice, allowing opponents' to exaggerate peripheral issues at the expense of ratifica­ · tion. ·

o The opponents have been better organized and funded.

WHAT CAN BUSINESS LEADERS DO TO SUPPORT ERA?

o Personal leadership - the personal commitment of business leaders to ERA targets the deb ate to the issue, not to em otions.

o Credibility with State Legislatures - Business is an im portant lobbying force in State Legislatures through corporation lobbyists, trade associa­ tions, the Ch amber of Commerce, Associated Industries and other bu siness groups. Silence on the issue by major bu siness leaders has been inter preted on the local level as opposition to ERA.

o Financial Support for Ratification "" opponents have traditionally out­ spent proponents by a considerable margin.

o Selling the Message - ERA is a human rights issue... not a solely woman's iss ue. The involvem ent of bu siness is critical to building further public support. Recent Harris poll s show that the public supports ERA - 56%- 36% with 8% undecided. In the South, Rockies, and Mid-west, the support declines.

o Participate in the National Council for ERA in coo peration with the League of Women Voters.

-:,.. Contact: Ellouise Schoettler, ERA Directo r ' League.. of Women Voters of the U.S. 1730. M.Street, NW Washington, DC 20036 (202) 296-1770

CAN ERA PASS?

IritensJfied support of bu siness, churches, civil righ ts groups and labor has· begun ·to change the dynamics of the ERA battle in the States. In addition to current Illinois a<::tivitl'es, votes are expected in Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, South c;:arolina and Oklahoma in 1981. Coalition eff orts are underway to raise funds, deVelop. grass-roots activites, support pro-ERA candidates and provide pu blic education.