Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi Transport Department
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GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL CAPITAL TERRITORY OF DELHI TRANSPORT DEPARTMENT TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST STUDY AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED ROAD CUM MULTIMULTI----MODALMODAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK FOR NCT OF DELHI METRO NARELA LIGHT METRO BAKHTAWARPUR BRT PUTHKHURD BAWANA IBRAHIMPUR ROHINI MUKUNDPUR KARAWAL SEC-21 NAGAR KANJHAWALA GOKALPURI DELHI BORDER DILSHAD (BAHADURGARH) GULABIBAGH MUNDKA GARDEN ISBT TILAK ANAND VIHAR NAGAR RAJEEV IG ISBT (TO DABRI CHOWK STADIUM VAISHALI) NAJAFGARH KIRBI MOD PLACE CENTRAL DWARKA DHAULAKUAN SECTT KONDALI GOPALNAGAR CHILLA AIRPORT TO NOIDA KALINDI KHAIRA VASANT KUNJ TO GURGAON JASOLA CHHAWLA KAPASHERA KUNJ MEHRAULI RAJOKARI AMBEDKAR NAGAR ARJANGARH BADARPUR (TO GURGAON) TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK APRIL 2010 In association with MVA ASIA Ltd. and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ANNEXURES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND 1.2 STUDY AREA 1.3 TRAFFIC AND TRAVEL SURVEYS AND REPORTS ALREADY SUBMITTED 1.4 REPORTS SUBMITTED 1.5 COMPOSITION OF THIS REPORT Chapter 2 EXISTING AND FUTURE LANDUSE PARAMETERS 2.1 DEVELOPMENT OF TRAFFIC ZONE SYSTEM 2.2 POPULATION ESTIMATION FOR DELHI 2007 2.3 FUTURE GROWTH SCENARIO AS ENVISAGED BY MPD-2021 2.4 ESTIMATION OF POPULATION 2011 & 2021 2.5 ESTIMATION OF EMPLOYMENT 2007, 2011 AND 2021 2.6 STUDENT ENROLLMENT 2007, 2011 and 2021 2.7 GROWTH OF POPULATION FOR OTHER TOWNS IN NCR Chapter 3 TRAFFIC MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION 3.1 INTRODUCTION 3.2 MODEL STRUCTURE 3.3 BASE YEAR HIGHWAY MATRICES DEVELOPMENT 3.4 VEHICLE AVAILABILITY, GENERATION, AND ATTRACTION MODELS 3.5 DISTRIBUTION MODELS 3.6 MODAL SPLIT MODELS 3.7 DAILY MODEL VALIDATION 3.8 AM PEAK MODEL 3.9 CONCLUSION Chapter 4 TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST AND BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO -2021 4.1 BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO PUBLI C TRANSPORT NETWORK 4.2 ASSUMPTIONS FOR TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECASTING 4.3 PROJECTIONS OF SPECIAL GENERATOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC 4.4 TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST FOR BAU SCENARIO - 2021 Chapter 5 DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK FOR 2021 5.1 DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE MASS TRANSPORT NETWORKS 5.2 SYSTEM SELECTION 5.3 RECOMMENDED PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK AND SYSTEM 5.4 DESCRIPTION OF MASS TRANSPORT CORRIDORS AND AREAS SERVED 5.5 SUMMARY OF TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST FOR THE RECOMMENDED MASS TRANSPORT NETWORK 5.6 SCENARIOS WITH HIGH PARKING CHARGES AND DENSIFICATION ALONG METRO CORRIODRS 5.7 PHASING FOR IMPLEMENTATION RITES LTD. Page 1 of 6 MVA Asia LTD., and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Table of Contents Chapter 6 TRANSPORT INTEGRATION 6.1 NEED 6.2 FEEDER SERVICES 6.3 INTER-CHANGE FACILITIES 6.4 OPERATIONAL INTEGRATION Chapter 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1 CONCLUSIONS 7.2 RECOMMENDATIONS RITES LTD. Page 2 of 6 MVA Asia LTD., and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Population Growth of NCT of Delhi Table 2.2 Population Estimates of Base Year 2007 Table 2.3 Comparative Table of All Scenarios Table 2.4 Estimated Population 2011 and 2021 Table 2.5 Estimated Employment 2007, 2011 and 2021 Table 2.6 Estimated Enrollment 2007, 2011 and 2021 Table 2.7 Growth of Population for Delhi and Other Towns in NCR Table 2.8 Directional Distribution of Growth of NCR Population and Annual Growth Rates Table 3.1 Vehicle Availability Model Calibration Results Table 3.2 Generation Model Calibration Results (Household’s Size Distribution) Table 3.3 HIS Database Daily Person Trip Rates By Purpose, and Household Size and Vehicle Availability Table 3.4 HIS Database All Purposes Daily Person Trip Rates by Household Size and Vehicle Availability Table 3.5 HIS database Daily Person Trips By Purpose And Vehicle Availability Group Table 3.6 Attraction Model Calibration Results Table 3.7 Base Year Values Of Time, Vehicle Operating Costs, And Vehicle Occupancy Rates Table 3.8 Distribution Models Calibration Results Table 3.9 Calibrated Modal Choice Models Parameters Table 3.10 Modal Split Models Calibration Results Table 3.11 Modal Split Models Calibration Results - Overall Table 3.12 Distribution Models Validation Results Table 3.13 Modal Split Models Validation Results Table 3.14 Modal Split Models Validation Results - Overall Table 3.15 Bus Speed Adjustment Table 3.16 Average Hour Highway Assignment (PCU Unit) - Validation Results (Screenlines) Table 3.17 Average Hour Highway Assignment (PCU Unit) - Validation Results (GEH Statistic) Table 3.18 Average Hour PT Assignment - Overall Validation Results Table 3.19 Average Hour PT Assignment - Metro Daily Boardings Validation Results Table 3.20 AM Peak Highway Assignment (PCU Unit) - Validation Results (Screenlines) Table 3.21 AM Peak PT Assignment - Overall Validation Results Table 4.1 Delhi Metro and BRT Corridors in Phase I and II Table 4.2 Projected Daily Passenger Trips at Delhi Airport Table 4.3 Projected Daily Passenger Trips at Railway Stations in NCT of Delhi Table 4.4 Daily Trips by Various Modes in BAU Scenario Table 4.5 Maximum Section Loads in Various Sections of Metro Corridors for ‘BAU’ Scenario Table 5.1 Proposed Capacity of Various Modes for Delhi Table 5.2 Recommended Integrated Public Transport Network and System Table 5.3 Existing and Proposed Metro Corridors in Delhi and Areas Served RITES LTD. Page 3 of 6 MVA Asia LTD., and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Table of Contents Table 5.4 Proposed Light Metro Corridor in Delhi and Areas Served Table 5.5 Existing and Proposed BRT Corridors in Delhi and Areas Served Table 5.6 Linewise Daily Boarding and Total Person Trips on Metro/Light Metro System 2021 Table 5.7 Daily Trips With Recommended Public Transport Network in 2021 Table 5.8 Modal Split for Intracity Trips for Delhi, 2021 Table 5.9 Distribution of Intra and Intercity Trips Table 5.10 Passenger Kilometers Served by Various Modes in 2021 Table 5.11 Modal Split for All Trips for Scenarios on Higher Parking Charges and Densification along Metro Corridors 2021 Table 5.12 Phasing of Metro/Light Metro Corridors in Delhi Table 5.13 Phasing of BRT Corridors in Delhi RITES LTD. Page 4 of 6 MVA Asia LTD., and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Study Area Figure 2.1 Traffic Zone Map Figure 2.2 DDA Planning Divisions of NCT of Delhi Figure 3.1 Four-Stage Model Structure Figure 3.2 Distribution of Households by Income and Vehicle Availability Group Figure 3.3 Distribution of Households by Household Size Figure 3.4 Attraction Model (HBW-NV Linear Regression) Figure 3.5 Gravity Model Formulation Figure 3.6 Modal Split Models Structure Figure 3.7 Multi-Logit Formulas (Combined Split) Figure 3.8 Logit Model Sensitivity Figure 3.9 Screenlines Definition Figure 3.10 Average Hour Highway Assignment - Validation Results (Linear Regression) Figure 4.1 Delhi Metro and BRT Corridors in Phase I and II Figure 4.2 Expected Peak Hour Traffic Volumes (in PCU’s) on Road Network in 2021 in BAU Scenario Figure 5.1 (a) Typical Cross-Section of BRT with 21 M (ROW) Figure 5.1 (b) Typical Cross-Section of BRT with 35 M (ROW) Figure 5.1 (c) Typical Cross-Section of BRT with 45 M (ROW) Figure 5.1 (d) Typical Cross-Section of BRT with 60 M (ROW) Figure 5.2 Typical Cross Sections of Light Metro (LRT/Monorail) System Figure 5.3 Recommended Integrated Public Transport Network and System Figure 5.4 Peak Hour Section Loads on Metro/Light Metro Corridors Figure 5.5 Expected Traffic Volumes (in PCU’s) on Road Network in 2021 on Recommended Scenario Figure 5.6 Phasing of Implementation of Metro and Light Metro Corridors Figure 5.7 Phasing of Implementation of BRT Corridors Figure 6.1 Major Transfer Interchange Points RITES LTD. Page 5 of 6 MVA Asia LTD., and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Table of Contents LIST OF ANNEXURES Annexure 2.1 Population 2007, 2011 and 2021 Annexure 2.2 Employment 2007, 2011 and 2021 Annexure 2.3 Enrollment 2007, 2011 and 2021 Annexure 3.1 Mode and Purpose wise Distribution Model Calibration Annexure 3.2 Mode and Purpose wise Distribution Model Validation Annexure 5.1 Section Loads on Metro Corridors on Recommended Scenario 2021 RITES LTD. Page 6 of 6 MVA Asia LTD., and TERI Transport Demand Forecast Study and Development of an Integrated Road cum Multi-modal Public Transport Network for NCT of Delhi Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 0.1 BACKGROUND 0.1.1 The National Capital Territory of Delhi is an exploding megapolitan city with a population of about 17 million at present and expected to be 24 million by 2021. There has been a tremendous upsurge in number and usage of personalized motor vehicles in Delhi.