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Continuing Resolutions: the Influence of Temporary Spending Restrictions on Monthly Expenditure Patterns of Federal Agencies

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Continuing Resolutions: the Influence of Temporary Spending Restrictions on Monthly Expenditure Patterns of Federal Agencies University of Kentucky UKnowledge Theses and Dissertations--Public Policy and Martin School of Public Policy and Administration Administration 2014 CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORARY SPENDING RESTRICTIONS ON MONTHLY EXPENDITURE PATTERNS OF FEDERAL AGENCIES Thomas Alexander Jacobs University of Kentucky, [email protected] Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Jacobs, Thomas Alexander, "CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORARY SPENDING RESTRICTIONS ON MONTHLY EXPENDITURE PATTERNS OF FEDERAL AGENCIES" (2014). Theses and Dissertations--Public Policy and Administration. 12. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/msppa_etds/12 This Doctoral Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Martin School of Public Policy and Administration at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations--Public Policy and Administration by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STUDENT AGREEMENT: I represent that my thesis or dissertation and abstract are my original work. Proper attribution has been given to all outside sources. I understand that I am solely responsible for obtaining any needed copyright permissions. I have obtained needed written permission statement(s) from the owner(s) of each third-party copyrighted matter to be included in my work, allowing electronic distribution (if such use is not permitted by the fair use doctrine) which will be submitted to UKnowledge as Additional File. I hereby grant to The University of Kentucky and its agents the irrevocable, non-exclusive, and royalty-free license to archive and make accessible my work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I agree that the document mentioned above may be made available immediately for worldwide access unless an embargo applies. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of my work. I understand that I am free to register the copyright to my work. REVIEW, APPROVAL AND ACCEPTANCE The document mentioned above has been reviewed and accepted by the student’s advisor, on behalf of the advisory committee, and by the Director of Graduate Studies (DGS), on behalf of the program; we verify that this is the final, approved version of the student’s thesis including all changes required by the advisory committee. The undersigned agree to abide by the statements above. Thomas Alexander Jacobs, Student Dr. Edward Jennings, Major Professor Dr. Edward Jennings, Director of Graduate Studies CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORARY SPENDING RESTRICTIONS ON MONTHLY EXPENDITURE PATTERNS OF FEDERAL AGENCIES ________________________________________________________________________ DISSERTATION ________________________________________________________________________ A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School at the University of Kentucky By Thomas Alexander Jacobs Lexington, Kentucky Director: Dr. Edward Jennings, Professor of Public Policy and Administration Lexington, Kentucky 2014 Copyright © Thomas Alexander Jacobs 2014 ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORARY SPENDING RESTRICTIONS ON MONTHLY EXPENDITURE PATTERNS OF FEDERAL AGENCIES The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30, and many federal agencies rely on annual appropriations to fund activities and programs. Nonetheless, the federal government often enters a new fiscal year without a fully approved budget, which actuates the requirement for a temporary means of funding government operations. Congress and the president provide provisional resources by way of continuing resolutions which enable the operation of government programs until regular appropriations are enacted. However, continuing resolutions are restrictive by design and may have unintended effects on government spending behavior beyond the timeframe to which the resolutions apply. This study explores the relationship between the uncertainty generated by the implementation of continuing appropriations and the modification of expenditure behavior in federal agencies. After a summary of the federal budget process and a survey of the literature related to continuing resolutions, a model of agency spending is presented. The associated theory explores suppositions related to ex ante and ex post reactions of agency officials to: (1) a one-time occurrence of continuing resolutions, and (2) an environment of regularly occurring continuing resolutions. Afterward, event study methods are applied to a subset of federal monthly obligation data to reveal patterns of spending which are suggestive of: (1) a saving-dissaving approach to compensate for the restrictive nature of continuing resolutions, and (2) the presence of signaling mechanisms between higher echelons of the federal government and subordinate agencies. A second quantitative chapter builds on the idea that federal agencies engage in expense shifting in anticipation of the enactment of continuing resolutions. An agenda setting framework is used to demonstrate how agencies monitor particular sources of the federal budget process to gain insight to the likelihood of continuing appropriations being enacted. Findings show that decision-makers may be able to determine the relevancy of particular budgetary signals within the congressional budgetary scheme. KEYWORDS: Continuing resolutions, continuing appropriations, federal budget, agenda setting, information processing Thomas Alexander Jacobs July 9, 2014 CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORARY SPENDING RESTRICTIONS ON MONTHLY EXPENDITURE PATTERNS OF FEDERAL AGENCIES By Thomas Alexander Jacobs Dr. Edward Jennings Director of Dissertation Dr. Edward Jennings Director of Graduate Studies July, 9, 2014 I dedicate this dissertation to my beautiful wife, Susan, and our three precious children, Gabriel, Bethany, and Matthew. Without your love, I never would have seen this little book report through to the end. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation is the culmination of hard work and patience on many fronts and I would like to recognize the efforts of those who were most integral to the completion of the dissertation. To my dissertation committee: Thank you for your tireless effort, your encouragement, and above all, your wisdom. I would like to extend a special thank you to Professor Edward Jennings, my committee chairman, for guiding me adroitly through this arduous process. Under your supervision, stumbling blocks became opportunities for discovery. To Professors Eugenia Toma and Merl Hackbart, thank you for your insightful direction on matters of economics and budget, and for your kind words of encouragement during my periods of frustration. To Professor J.S. Butler, I am eternally grateful for your econometric expertise and your boundless knowledge of all things under the sun. I am truly going to miss our daily conversations, J.S., and I hope that we will continue to stay in touch. Sir Author Conan Doyle once wrote, “Data! Data! Data! … I can’t make bricks without clay.” So, to my “unnamed source” from the resource management ranks in the Department of the Army, and to Joseph Scanlon and John Simms at the National Archives and Records Administration: Thank you a thousand times over for the budget data. To Rob and Laura Greer, and Pete and Allison Jones: Thank you for Friday night family dinners, lunch at Local Taco and Firehouse, summer softball, and, most iii importantly, for your friendship. Without you, this program of study would have taken a much larger toll on my sanity. To my parents, Tom and Cora: Thank you for inspiring me to find my boundaries and for giving me the tools necessary to push myself past those limits. To my brother, Chris: You have been my number one cheerleader and my partner in crime since I can remember. Thank you for never leaving my side. And finally, to my wife and children: Thank you for enduring my periods of absence over the course of this journey. You mean the world to me and each moment I spent away from you over the past four years was pure torture. Your love and the time we spent together as a family were what kept me going. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. ix Chapter One – Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 Purpose of the dissertation ......................................................................................... 3 Summary of chapters .................................................................................................. 4 Chapter Two – The Federal Budget Process ....................................................................... 7 Evolution of the federal budget process ........................................................................ 7 Phase One: Executive Budget Formulation .................................................................. 14 Phase Two: The Congressional
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