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Water, Food and Energy Security in Central Asia: Background Analysis

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Water, Food and Energy Security in Central Asia: Background Analysis Water, Food and Energy Security in Central Asia: Background Analysis - Benefits of Cross-Sectoral (Nexus) Solutions SIC-ICWC and experts’ draft data and analysis for discussion 7 June 2021 0 Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 3 1. Water security in the Central Asian countries ................................................................................. 6 1.1. Water security: definition and assessment approaches ............................................................ 6 1.2. Overview of water security in the countries ............................................................................ 9 1.2.1. Kazakhstan ...................................................................................................................... 9 1.2.2. Kyrgyzstan..................................................................................................................... 10 1.2.3. Tajikistan ....................................................................................................................... 12 1.2.4. Turkmenistan ................................................................................................................. 13 1.2.5. Uzbekistan ..................................................................................................................... 15 1.3. Water availability in the Aral Sea Basin ............................................................................... 18 1.4. Conclusions on the state of water security in Central Asian countries ................................. 19 2. Food security in the Central Asian countries ................................................................................ 22 2.1. Food security: definition and assessment approaches ........................................................... 22 2.2. Overview of food security in the countries ........................................................................... 24 2.2.1. Kazakhstan .................................................................................................................... 25 2.2.2. Kyrgyzstan..................................................................................................................... 25 2.2.3. Tajikistan ....................................................................................................................... 26 2.2.4. Turkmenistan ................................................................................................................. 26 2.2.5. Uzbekistan ..................................................................................................................... 27 2.3. Water-food nexus .................................................................................................................. 27 2.4. Forecast 2030 ........................................................................................................................ 29 3. Energy security in in the Central Asian countries ......................................................................... 30 3.1. Energy security: definition and assessment approaches ........................................................ 30 3.2. Overview of energy security in the countries ........................................................................ 30 3.2.1. Kazakhstan .................................................................................................................... 31 3.2.2. Kyrgyzstan..................................................................................................................... 32 3.2.3. Tajikistan ....................................................................................................................... 32 3.2.4. Turkmenistan ................................................................................................................. 33 3.2.5. Uzbekistan ..................................................................................................................... 33 3.3. Interstate water-energy relations ........................................................................................... 35 3.3.1. Experience in interstate harmonization of water-energy relations ................................ 35 3.3.2. Challenges and prospects of water-energy relations ..................................................... 35 4. Conclusion: Cross-sectoral interaction between the CA countries in water, energy and food ...... 38 1 Annex. Water scarcity during the growing season, especially in three summer months, in the Aral Sea Basin ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 2 Introduction Ensuring water, food and energy security is among key priorities for the Central Asian countries. For achievement of every security dimension, coordinated and cross- sectoral approaches to water, energy and land use are needed both at national and regional levels. Recently, intensive discussions have been revolving around consideration of numerous interlinkages between sectors in the process of achievement of water, food and energy security and sustainable development. Understanding of opportunities offered by cross-sectoral and transboundary planning is essential for the climate resilient future also. In this context, in 2020, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commissioned a study to collect data on the current status of water, energy and food security on the region and of the opportunities offered by water, land and energy use nexus to find sustainable cross-sectoral decisions and enhance regional cooperation. Members of the regional Expert Platform on water security, sustainable development and future studies were involved in collection and analysis of data. The data and key findings are presented in this document for review and will be used in the future to support preparation of a discussion paper on the benefits of cooperation on the energy, water land use nexus. The findings will be presented as part of an expert workshop on 8 June 2021 for consultation. The present paper summarizes the key elements of water, food and energy security and their nexus to which the region’s experts would like to draw attention. The presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of OECD or any other organizations. The paper does not provide exhaustive review of all issues related to multiple interlinkages of the sectors for achievement of sustainable development in the region. It presents only some of key, in authors’ opinion, points related to the role of water, energy and food nexus. The aim is to inform discussion and demonstrate possibilities of achieving water, food and energy security and maintaining environmental sustainability in Central Asia through coordinated cross-sectoral actions. At present, there are multiple definitions of water, food and energy security and many indicators were proposed for its assessment at different levels, from household to country or region. For the purposes of given assessment, security means in general (i) physical availability of resource (water, energy, food); (ii) access to resource and its reliability (political, legal, technical aspects related to access to the resource; (iii) economic affordability (cost). All elements are considered in linkage with natural (weather, climatic conditions, etc.), technological (infrastructure outdating, accidents, etc.), political (sabotage, terrorism, etc.) and economic (rise in prices, sanctions, etc.) risks. 3 By UNECE’s definition, the “nexus” term in the context of water, food and energy refers to these sectors being inextricably linked so that actions in one policy area commonly have impacts on the others, as well as on the ecosystems that natural resources and human activities ultimately depend upon.1 By considering how water, energy, and food systems operate and interact, the nexus approach aims to maximize mutually beneficial outcomes and minimize non-optimal outcomes, improve resource- use efficiency, and internalize social and environmental impacts (Kurian 2017). Thus, the main aim of the nexus approach is to strengthen cross-sectoral integration to enhance water, energy, and food security. For the purposes of present assessment, water, without which no sector can function, is considered as the determining factor in the nexus approach. Therefore, the focus in given issue paper is put on cross-sectoral coordination of all water user and consumer sectors as one of elements of integrated water resources management, while paying particular attention to environmental sustainability. To identify possibilities of achieving water, food and energy security and maintaining environmental sustainability in Central Asia through cross-sectoral actions, the following tasks will be fulfilled: (1) study the current state of water, food and energy security and identify destabilization factors of resource availability in form of dynamic indicators in the Central Asian countries for the long-term; (2) determine expected level of water, food and energy security under business as usual in the Central Asian countries by 2030; (3) propose recommendations for integration of country efforts in promoting mutually beneficial cross-sectoral decisions to ensure security in the countries and sustainable development in the region. Assessment
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