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Event Study Analysis Event study analysis “The relationship between elections and stock market returns” Abstract This master thesis research investigates the timing of election-induced events on the European financial stock markets. Positive stock market returns in periods with an election-induced event are found. Stock market returns are positively (less negatively) affected in periods ending with an election- induced event compared to the entire event-window. Furthermore, election-induced stock market returns on the European financial markets are positively correlated with the national stock market. Positive (negative) stock market returns following the election outcome on the national index will positively (negatively) affect the European stock returns. Moreover, we find that stock market returns are positively correlated with shifts in sentiment. Favourable (unfavourable) political news is positively (negatively) affecting stock market returns. Lastly, a negative relationship is found between economic performance and stock market returns during election periods. The abnormal stock market returns are positively (negatively) affected by elections before (after) the financial crisis. These results are in line with Pantzalis et al. (2000), Brown et al. (1998), Hibbs (1977), Lee et al. (2002) and Chan et al. (1996). Keywords: Political elections, Stock market return, Financial Crisis, Europe. Student name: Ronald Antonius Pieter van Eupen Administration number: 866381 E-mail address: Study program: MSc Finance CFA Track Supervisor: dr. D.A. (David) Hollanders Second reader: dr. F. (Fabio) Castiglionesi Date: August 29, 2017 2 Preface This MSc thesis is the result of a graduation research under supervision of the Finance Department at Tilburg University. As part of the MSc Finance CFA track program, this research focussed around macroeconomic events and specifically the effect of political elections on stock market returns. This research has been practised in collaboration with the Tilburg School of Economics and Management (TiSEM). The basic objective of this research is to get more knowledge about investor behaviour and stock market returns during periods of elections. In this MSc Finance, various effects and implications have been discussed with the help of an event based study regarding political elections and stock market returns. This research has contributed to help investors around the world in optimizing their asset allocation in times of uncertainty, as of elections. Nothing of this would have been possible with the help of Tilburg School of Economics and Management. I would like to thank a few important people in particular. First, I would like to thank my supervisor dr. D.A. Hollanders with all the help and advice during my graduation. I have been more than grateful for the pleasant cooperation. Next, I would like to thank all the professors and faculty members of the Finance Department. Lastly and most important, I would like to thank my family and friends for all the support. They have kept me motivated and focussed during my graduation. Ronald van Eupen Tilburg, August - 2017 3 Table of content 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 4 2. Literature review .............................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Stock market returns ................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Stock market returns and political elections ................................................................................ 7 2.3 Spill-over effects of stock market returns .................................................................................... 9 3. Methodology .................................................................................................................. 11 3.1 Sample selection ........................................................................................................................ 11 3.2 Event study methodology .......................................................................................................... 13 4. Data Analysis .................................................................................................................. 16 4.1 Constructing the index ............................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Identifying the missing data ....................................................................................................... 17 4.3 Political elections and stock market returns .............................................................................. 19 4.3.1. The Netherlands ................................................................................................................ 19 4.3.2. France ................................................................................................................................ 27 4.3.3. Germany ............................................................................................................................ 36 4.3.4. United Kingdom ................................................................................................................. 42 4.3.5. Spain .................................................................................................................................. 50 4.3.6. Italy .................................................................................................................................... 60 5. Robustness check............................................................................................................ 69 6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 71 6.1 Discussion .................................................................................................................................. 72 7. Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 73 7.1 Dutch parliamentary elections ................................................................................................... 73 7.2 French presidential elections ..................................................................................................... 82 7.3 German federal elections ........................................................................................................... 91 7.4 United Kingdom general elections ............................................................................................. 97 7.5 Spanish general elections ........................................................................................................ 106 7.5 Italian general elections ........................................................................................................... 115 8. References .................................................................................................................... 124 4 1. Introduction March 16, 2017, German minister in the Chancellor’s Office Peter Altmaier tweeted the following: “Nederland oh Nederland jij bent een kampioen! Wij houden van Oranje om zijn daden en zijn doen! Gefeliciteerd met dit geweldig resultaat!” This is one of many reactions after the election result of the Dutch general election on March 15, 2017. An important win by the conservative parties, where Euroscepticism is becoming increasingly popular across Europe. The Brexit of the United Kingdom and the presidential election of the United States of America was seen by many people as a sign of change. The rise of the “far-right” is not a false alarm, but the results show that a breakthrough of far-right is not unavoidable. This breakthrough is important as the Netherlands is the first important election in Europe in 2017, before the French presidential and the German federal election. Investors were pleased by the win of the Liberal Party VVD in the Netherlands as the AEX showed an 0.87% increase overnight whilst the election results were announced. However, the election results of the France and German elections are of greater importance for the stability in the EU, given their economic magnitude. In France, the first round of the presidential election is held on April 23th. Turbulent times are predicted by investors and analyst in case Mélenchon (far left) and Le pen (far right) won as they want to sever the connection of France with the European Union. A win by Emmanuel Macron gaining 24% of the votes is therefore a noteworthy revelation and characterized by a 4.13% increase overnight at the French stock index. Moreover, foreign markets showed positive stock market returns besides the effect of firms being cross listed. Elections have therefor an important impact on both the national stock market index as the foreign markets. Besides the economic impact, elections characterize democracy as first democracy depended on representatives for decision making, Woodruff (2005). Democracy originated more than 2400 years ago in Greece1. The definition of democracy is “rule by the people”, which means that the people govern their nation. Elections are mechanisms through which citizens participate directly in the political process and elect their fellow citizens into office for restricted periods of time, Alexander and Kaboyakgosi (2012). Elections are therefore major events that can change
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