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Academic Perspective on the History and Future of Reits in Germany Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany MIT Forums in Real Estate “German REITs: A transatlantic Real Estate Investment Concept?” 14th October 2005, Munich Martin Becker ebs Department of Real Estate 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 1 1 2 3 Content 1 Performance of European REIT Markets 2 German Real Estate Investment Market 3 Outlook 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 2 1 2 3 Performance of European REIT Markets 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 3 1 2 3 International Overview Introduction of REITs and current market cap of REITs and listed property companies: 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 4 1 2 Netherlands3 9.0 8.0 7.0 RODA MCO EUROPE 6.0 EUROCOMMERCIA LPROP WERELDHA V E NV 5.0 VASTNED OFFICES/IN V A STNED RETA IL 4.0 CORIO NV NIEUWE STEEN INV S 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jan. 90 Source: ZEW/ebsSep. (2005). 90 14.10.2005 Martin BeckerMai. 91 Jan. 92 Sep. 92 Jun. 93 Feb. 94 Okt. 94 Jun. 95 Feb. 96 Nov. 96 Jul. 97 Academic perspective on theMrz. history 98 and future of REITs in Germany Nov. 98 Aug. 99 Apr. 00 Dez. 00 Aug. 01 Apr. 02 Jan. 03 Sep. 03 Mai. 04 Jan. 05 5 1 2 Netherlands3 800 700 600 500 Aktien (MSCI) Immobilienaktien (EPRA) 400 Renten (Datatream) 300 200 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 100 14.10.2005 Martin Becker 0 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Academic perspective on the historyJa andn 98 future of REITs in Germany Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 6 1 2 3 Netherlands Bonds Stocks Property Stocks Correlation Standard Property Property Return Return Return Deviation SD SD Stocks vs. Stocks vs. p.a. p.a. p.a. (SD) Stocks Bonds Jan. 1990 - 8.3 % 4.6 % 9.4 % 18.3 % 5.2 % 12.0 % 0.51 0.09 Aug. 2004 Jan. 1990 - 10.2 % 4.8 % 13.1 % 13.1 % -5.5 % 10.7 % 0.50 0.34 Dec. 1995 Jan. 1996 - 7.0 % 4.2 % 23.5 % 18.8 % 9.2 % 12.4 % 0.61 0.08 Dec. 2000 Jan .2001 - 7.2 % 4.7 % -13.2 % 23.0 % 17.1 % 12.7 % 0.57 -0.17 Aug. 2004 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 7 1 2 Belgium3 2,5 2 1,5 Marktkap. EPRA-Index (li. Skala) Mrd. Euro Anzahl Unternehmen (EPRA-Index, re. Skala) 1 0,5 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 0 14.10.2005 Martin BeckerJan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 5 Jan 97 Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany Jan 98 4 Jan 99 3 Jan 00 Jan 01 2 Jan 02 Anzahl Jan 03 1 Jan 04 0 8 1 2 Belgium3 450 400 350 Aktien (MSCI) 300 Immobilienaktien (EPRA ) 250 Renten (Datastream) 200 150 100 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 50 14.10.2005 Martin Becker 0 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 9 1 2 3 Belgium Bonds Stocks Property Stocks Correlation Property Property Return Return Return SD SD SD Stocks vs. Stocks vs. p.a. p.a. p.a. Stocks Bonds Jan. 1990 - 9.5 % 4.7 % 8.6 % 17.2 % 3.6 % 13.9 % 0.45 0.26 Aug. 2004 Jan. 1990 - 12.2 % 5.3 % 7.8 % 14.9 % -3.5 % 19.2 % 0.63 0.33 Dec. 1995 Jan. 1996 - 7.7 % 4.2 % 16.7 % 17.2 % 6.0 % 9.4 % 0.46 0.31 Dec. 2000 Jan .2001 - 7.6 % 4.2 % -2.0 % 20.2 % 13.1 % 6.9 % 0.29 0.02 Aug. 2004 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 10 1 2 France3 25 20 15 10 5 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 0 14.10.2005 Martin Becker 31.12.1984 Summe Marktkap. (Mrd. Euro, 31.12.1985 li. Achse) 31.12.1986 Anzahl Unternehmen (re. Achse) 31.12.1987 31.12.1988 31.12.1989 31.12.1990 31.12.1991 14 31.12.1992 31.12.1993 12 31.12.1994 Academic perspective on31.12 the history.199 and5 future of REITs in Germany 10 31.12.1996 31.12.1997 8 31.12.1998 6 31.12.1999 31.12.2000 4 31.12.2001 31.12.2002 2 31.12.2003 0 11 1 2 France3 600 500 400 Aktien (MSCI) Immobilienaktien (EPRA) 300 Renten (Datastream) SIIC-Index Euronext 200 100 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 14.10.2005 Martin Becker 0 Jan 90 Jul 90 Jan 91 Jul 91 Jan 92 Jul 92 Jan 93 Jul 93 Jan 94 Jul 94 Jan 95 Jul 95 Jan 96 Jul 96 Jan 97 Jul 97 Academic perspective on the historyJan and98 future of REITs in Germany Jul 98 Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 12 1 2 3 France Bonds Stocks Property Stocks Correlation Property Property Return Return Return SD SD SD Stocks vs. Stocks vs. p.a. p.a. p.a. Stocks Bonds Jan. 1990 - 9.1 % 5.1 % 7.7 % 19.7 % 9.7 % 14.1 % 0.45 0.25 Aug. 2004 Jan. 1990 - 11.3 % 5.9 % 4.1 % 17.7 % 0.5 % 16.2 % 0.61 0.56 Dec. 1995 Jan. 1996 - 7.8 % 4.4 % 26.0 % 19.6 % 15.3 % 11.3 % 0.28 -0.07 Dec. 2000 Jan .2001 - 7.2 % 4.4 % -10.2 % 21.5 % 17.8 % 13.7 % 0.45 -0.05 Aug. 2004 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 13 1 2 3 International performance of REITs / property stocks Australia Japan Netherlands Belgium France Return Risk Return Risk Return Risk Return Risk Return Risk Jan. 1990 - 14.9 % 10.9 % -3.8 % 31.4 % 5.2 % 12.0 % 3.6 % 13.9 % 9.7 % 14.1 % Aug. 2004 Jan 2001 - 10.8 % 8.5 % 5.1 % 28.3 % 17.1 % 12.7 % 13.1 % 6.9 % 17.8 % 13.7 % Aug. 2004 USA Canada REITs Composite Return Risk Return Risk Jan 1980 - Jan. 1997 - 12.18 % 12.8 % 16.3 % 18.3 % Aug. 2004 Aug. 2004 Jan 2001 - Jan. 2001 - 19.34 % 14.1 % 16.9 % 11.6 % Aug. 2004 Aug. 2004 Source: ZEW/ebs (2005). Particularly in the last years REITs were successful As well the risk-return profile improved 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 14 1 2 3 German Real Estate Investment Markets 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 15 1 2 3 Overview: German real estate investment market Vehicle Measure Date € Billion Investment Closed-end funds 31. Dec. 2004 171.5 volume Open-ended Fund volume 31. Dec. 2004 87.2 mutual funds Open-ended Fund volume 31. Dec. 2004 13.5 special funds Listed property Market 31. Dec. 2004 5.8 companies capitalization Opportunistic Transaction Year 2004 app. 15 funds volume 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 16 1 2 3 Open-ended mutual funds Capital in- and outflows (EUR billion) Total fund volume and number of mutual funds 100.000 45 90.000 80.000 70.000 30 60.000 50.000 40.000 15 30.000 Number of mutual funds of mutual Number Fund volume (EUR million) (EUR Fund volume 20.000 10.000 0 0 3 94 96 98 00 01 02 04 99 9 995 9 9 0 0 0 003 0 1 1 1 1 1997 1 1999 2 2 2 2 2 Fund volume mutual funds (left scale) Number of mutual funds (right scale) Data cource: BVI. Data source: Deutsche Bundesbank. 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 17 1 2 3 However: Low Real Estate Proportion within Asset Allocation... Asset Allocation of German Open-Ended Mutual Funds (2004) Other assets Cash at bank 5% 9% Securities 12% Interest in Real Estate property 67% companies (partnerships) 2% Source: Deutsche Bundesbank, Calculations ZEW. 14.10.2005 Martin Becker Academic perspective on the history and future of REITs in Germany 18 1 2 3 Open-ended special funds Capital in- and outflows (EUR billion) Total fund volume and number of special funds 18.000 90 2,5 15.000 75 illion) 2 12.000 60 1,5 9.000 45 1 6.000 30 3.000 15 0,5 volumeFund (€ m Number of special funds special of Number 0 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fund volume special funds (left scale) Number of funds (right scale) Data source: BVI.
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