USDA Revises Corn Estimate Upward; Prices Slide
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The National Livestock Weekly September 19, 2005 • Vol. 84, No. 49 “The Industry’s Largest Weekly Circulation” www.wlj.net • E-mail: [email protected] • [email protected] • [email protected] A Crow Publication USDA revises corn estimate upward; prices slide —Hurricane damage, an average harvest estimate of mates at 139.2 bushels per acre, fuel costs adding to 143.2 bushels per acre. 12% lower than the record 2004 uncertainty. Earlier in the summer, analysts harvest, corn cash prices declined were bearish on corn harvest to $2.14 per bushel immediately Humane animal On Sept.12, USDA released the prospects, stating that prolonged following the release of the initial month’s revised harvest estimate. drought across the eastern corn crop report. treatment The revision tied a record for the belt would drive average yields be- As crop conditions have improved largest upward Aug. to Sept. revi- low 135 bushels per acre, a num- across the nation’s corn growing — Legislation proposed in Arizona. sion. Market analysts had general- ber that many believe would have region, the outlook for both grow- ly been leaning toward a down- led to $3 per bushel corn prices. ers and feeders had been steadily While most of the country was focused on the devastation Hurri- ward revision in the harvest esti- Instead, as yield estimates have improving over the past few weeks cane Katrina created, an Arizona animal rights group, Arizonans for mate, feeling that a long, dry sum- crept upward, prices have followed until Hurricane Katrina shut down Humane Farms, was busy filing proposed legislation in Arizona mer would take its toll on the na- an inverse curve trending down- Gulf Coast shipping ports. The price courts which would make many confinement farming practices ille- tional harvest. Many experts were ward over the previous month to of energy and transportation links gal. The Humane Society of the U.S. and the Farm Sanctuary were surprised when USDA bumped its close at $2.07 per bushel on Sept.14. directly to commodity prices, and also behind the proposal. initial estimate, of 139.2 bushels Following the Aug. 12 crop report, the spike in energy costs has come The legislation will be known as the Humane Treatment of Farm per acre, up 4 bushels per acre to which placed corn harvest esti- at a bad time for growers across Animals Act. If put into effect, it will have profound implications on the Midwest. As harvest begins, most hog and dairy calf raising operations in the state. Specifically, the act states “a person shall not tether or confine any pig during some growers are estimating an pregnancy or any calf raised for veal on a farm for all, or the major- U.S. Corn Production increase in fuel costs of tens-of- NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD CORN CASH PRICE ity of any day, in a manner that prevents such animal from lying down thousands of dollars will reduce and fulling extending its limbs or turning around freely.” The legis- their margins this year. lation will not apply to animals on exhibit, being transported or in- Rep. Jerry Moran, R-KS, speak- volved in rodeo events. Any violation of the act will be a class one mis- ing at a USDA Farm Bill listening demeanor. 160.4 160.4 forum, said producers in his state The Arizona Cattle Feeders Association, (ACFA) was quick to react are facing an average increase in fu- to the proposal. Current president Norman Hinz said, “When all ef- 2.45 2.45 el costs in excess of $14,000 above forts should be focused on alleviating the suffering in Louisiana, Mis- 2.32 $ 2.32 $ $ $ last year’s expenditures. Already, sissippi and Alabama, these radical groups come along and promote USDA estimates 6% of corn has an initiative that does not provide for improving animal welfare on Ari- 138 138 143.2 143.2 137 142.2 137 142.2 been harvested. As growers ramp zona’s farms and ranches. It is purely a political stunt attempting to 134 134 up their harvest efforts, many are stigmatize animal agriculture. We invite these groups and applied sci- 130 1.97 130 1.97 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 ence efforts to join in our attempts to improve animal health and ani- Bushels Per Acre Bushels Per facing fuel costs of $3.00 per gallon Dollars Per Bushel Dollars Per 1.90 1.90 $ $ $ $ $ $ mal husbandry. $ 1.85 $ 1.85 Source: Ag National Statistics Service and more. Adding to fears is the $ $ The ACFA criticized the initiative stating, “Arizona’s feedlots follow lack of interest from buyers. Re- a standard of allowing 80- 150 square feet of space per animal; yet these ports of cash corn sales for last animals are often found laying down much closer than that density by year’s product being down as much choice, leaving open spaces at other corners of the pen, responding to as 30 cents per bushel were being their herding and protective instincts. Arizona’s beef producing fami- circulated last month. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 lies have learned animal science at our Land Grant Universities and *2005 *Estimate as of 9/12/05 *Estimate as of 9/13/05 *2005 Analysts have indicated that carried it back to both family, corporate family, and ranches across our Corn prices continued to slide as energy, transportation and some short-term buying opportuni- state,” said Hinz. ty exists for cattle producers look- See Humane on page 18 higher harvest estimates pressure corn belt producers. See Corn on page 7 Fed and feeder cattle rally, on good demand Fed cattle trade was very active ly every indicator suggested an im- tion with fed cattle prices rallying Less expensive feed costs are earning $11.10 a head on an aver- early last week. Feeders didn’t have proved market. upward. However, she warned, they helping feeders hold the line. age buy of $83.03. to play the hold out game with Futures markets were much have to be careful not to give it Sources tell us that the fed cattle Boxed beef values gained a cou- packers as they came to the table higher with the October live cattle back buying high priced feeder cat- supply is smaller and feeders have ple dollars with the Choice cutout relatively quick, moving fed prices reaching $86.38 and the February tle. the luxury of holding cattle over moving up to $140.56 and Select at up $2-3 to $87 live and $136 to contract was a dime short of $90. Aweek earlier, during the Labor because of lower feed costs. It has 129.39. Most of the meat trade was $137 dressed. Over 150,000 head Feeder cattle just keep getting Day-shortened week, fed trade got nothing to do with feeders being with the Select product. Trade vol- traded on Wednesday. stronger with September at under way late Friday afternoon at current on marketings. There have ume has been very good signaling All signals were go in the mar- $115.37, a contract high. $84.50 live and there were also been reports of corn trade at $1.40- good demand. kets—lower cost feed, stronger fu- Ann Barnhardt, an independent good volumes traded. The fed mar- 1.50 per bushel. Feeder Markets tures markets, stronger boxed beef analyst in Denver, CO, said that ket showed significant strength Clearly packers needed cattle; markets, strong slaughter—near- cattle feeders are in a great posi- over the following six days. buying cattle on a Wednesday and The feeder market continues to adding $2-3 sends a very positive roll along, oblivious to any of the ob- signal to feeders. stacles in its way. Prices in the last Carcass weights should be reach- two weeks have pushed back to The benefits of controlling BVD ing a seasonal high. The week end- near or above historical highs, and calves are coming to the market Experts at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln cal- proximately 1% of all calves born in the U.S. herd ing Sept. 3, carcass weights were bovine viral diarrhea up 2 lbs. at 834 lbs. The week of just in time. culate that (BVD) related loss- annually. Although the disease poses no danger to In the northern tier states, sales es cost the beef industry more than $150 million each humans, it is highly contagious among cattle, com- Sept. 9, southern Plains live cattle weights were 9 lbs. lower than the are beginning to pick up as pro- year. monly spread by PI animals through fecal matter, ducers are starting to send their calf Colorado veterinarian Jim Kennedy, who is respon- saliva, mucous secretions and other bodily fluids. Be- prior week. With the price moving up this crop to town. Sales in the Dakotas sible for Colorado’s voluntary BVD control program, cause the virus is shed in such high volume by PI were noting prices for 700-800 lb. estimates that losses may run as high as $24 or more animals, it can spread rapidly through a herd, mul- quickly, cattle supplies are starting to be questioned. The cattle on feed steers trading in a range of $119- per head depending on market conditions for herds tiplying costs for producers. 123, while 600-700 lb. heifers trad- infected with BVD. “Producers whose herds are infected with BVD report, due out later this week, was See Markets on page 17 BVD virus spreads from animal to animal with- may experience a decline in birth rates of 20% or high- expected to show cattle on feed in a herd.