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Essays in Development and Labor Economics UC Irvine UC Irvine Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Essays in Development and Labor Economics Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3qr1z27f Author Muz, Jennifer Publication Date 2016 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Essays in Development and Labor Economics DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Economics by Jennifer Elizabeth Muz Dissertation Committee: Professor David Neumark, Chair Associate Professor Manisha Shah Professor Marianne Bitler Assistant Professor Maria Rosales-Rueda 2016 Chapter 3 c 2016 Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah All other materials c 2016 Jennifer Elizabeth Muz DEDICATION To my loved ones, for your love and for sharing in the struggle. \We are faltering, but we must not let it make us afraid and perhaps surrender the new things we have gained." Friedrich Nietzsche Human, All Too Human ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii CURRICULUM VITAE ix ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION xii 1 The Impact of Microcredit on Household Welfare: The Case of Banco Azteca in Mexico 1 1.1 Introduction . 1 1.2 Banco Azteca as microcredit . 5 1.2.1 The rollout of Banco Azteca . 5 1.2.2 Loan Characteristics . 6 1.3 Data . 7 1.3.1 Household data . 8 1.3.2 Bank data . 9 1.4 Empirical Strategy . 10 1.5 Main Results . 13 1.5.1 Impact of Banco Azteca on borrowing . 13 1.5.2 Impact of Banco Azteca on Consumption . 15 1.5.3 Non-durable consumption . 16 1.5.4 Durable consumption . 17 1.6 Threats to Validity . 20 1.6.1 Selection into treatment and common trends . 20 1.6.2 No change in composition of treatment and control groups . 24 1.7 Dynamic Impacts . 24 1.8 Conclusion . 29 1.9 Tables . 32 iii 2 The Impact of Job Loss on Fertility Decisions among Dual-Earner Households 38 2.1 Introduction . 38 2.2 Hypothetical Framework . 43 2.2.1 Ideal Experiment . 44 2.2.2 Next Best Case . 46 2.2.3 Chosen Approach . 46 2.3 Data . 47 2.3.1 Measure of Job Loss to Dual-Earner Couples . 48 2.3.2 Measure of Fertility Rates . 52 2.3.3 Summary Statistics . 54 2.4 Empirical Framework and Results . 55 2.4.1 County-Year Analysis . 57 2.4.2 State-Quarter Analysis . 59 2.5 Conclusion . 61 2.6 Tables . 63 2.7 Figures . 66 3 Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work 69 3.1 Introduction . 69 3.2 Context of the Worksites . 73 3.3 Data Collection . 75 3.3.1 Survey Data Collection . 75 3.3.2 Biological Data Collection . 77 3.4 Empirical Framework and Results . 79 3.4.1 Summary Statistics . 81 3.4.2 Impact of Criminalization on Worksite Operations . 83 3.4.3 Impact of Criminalization on Sex Worker Health . 85 3.4.4 Impact of Criminalization on Access to Health Exams and Condoms . 87 3.5 Alternative Mechanisms . 90 3.5.1 The Impact of Criminalization on Worksite Operations . 90 3.5.2 Changes in Transaction, Sex Worker, and Client Characteristics . 91 3.5.3 Sample Selection at Endline . 93 3.6 Discussion and Conclusion . 95 3.7 Tables . 97 Bibliography 104 Appendices 112 A Chapter 1 Appendix 112 iv B Chapter 2 Appendix 115 B.1 Appendix Tables . 115 B.2 Data Appendix . 118 C Chapter 3 Appendix 120 v LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 Trends in mean per capita expenditures and mean per captial food expendi- tures by presence of Banco Azteca . 37 2.1 U.S. Total fertility Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, 1970 to 2011 . 66 2.2 Mass Layoff Statistics, County-Year: Interpreting the impact of female sep- arations on fertility as the share of females in dual-earner couples increases, β1JobLoss + β3DualEarn · JobLoss ....................... 67 2.3 Mass Layoff Statistics, State-Quarter: Interpreting the impact of female sep- arations on fertility as the share of females in dual-earner couples increases, β1JobLoss + β3DualEarn · JobLoss ....................... 68 3.1 Impact of Criminalization on the FSW Population . 103 vi LIST OF TABLES Page 1.1 Presence of Banco Azteca in sample municipalities . 32 1.2 Bank presence and municipality characteristics . 33 1.3 Summary Statistics . 34 1.4 Impact of Banco Azteca on household borrowing . 34 1.5 Impact of Banco Azteca on consumption outcomes . 35 1.6 Impact of Banco Azteca on consumption outcomes, exploiting variation in timing of bank branch entrance . 36 2.1 Joint Distribution of Female Separations and Share of Female Population in a Dual-Earner Married Couples by State, 2003-2011 . 63 2.2 Joint Distribution of Separations and Unemployment Rate among Dual-Earner Households by State, 2003-2011 . 64 2.3 Summary Statistics . 64 2.4 Main Results using the County-Year Panel Data . 65 2.5 Main Results using the State-Quarter Panel Data . 65 3.1 Worksite Types and Baseline Data Samples . 97 3.2 Baseline Characteristics: Female Sex Workers . 98 3.3 Baseline Characteristics: Clients . 99 3.4 Impact of criminalization on self-reports on FSW health and condom use, formal worksites . 100 3.5 Impact of Criminalization on Worksite Operations, formal worksites . 101 3.6 Impact of Criminalization on Transaction, Sex Worker, and Client Character- istics, formal worksites . 102 vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my committee members, David Neumark, Manisha Shah, Marianne Bitler, and Maria Rosales-Rueda, and Lisa Cameron for their invaluable guidance, feedback on my dissertation chapters, and support throughout my graduate studies. Thank you to David Neumark for instilling in me the importance of developing interesting research questions and the discipline to work toward answering them thoroughly and rig- orously. Thank you to Manisha Shah for providing me with the opportunity to engage in research in Indonesia and learn invaluable skills in designing randomized controlled trials and managing fieldwork. Thank you to Marianne Bitler, for imparting the attention to detail necessary to engage in careful empirical research and for her interest in ensuring I remained engaged with the wider economics community and on track with my research throughout my graduate studies. I am grateful for the support of my family and friends. I am especially grateful to Benjamin Muz, for hours spent helping me to revise my papers and to edit countless emails and for his unconditional love and patience. Thank you to my parents, Harold and Mary Seager, and my siblings, Ian and Lauren, for their love and encouragement. Thank you to my peers from the Ph.D. Economics program at the University of California, Irvine, whose support, insight, and enthusiasm for research and learning has been paramount in shaping my own perspectives and aspirations. For Chapter 1 of this manuscript, I would like to thank anonymous referees and participants at PAA 2014 and UC Irvine for their helpful comments and feedback. Thank you to Claudia Ruiz for assistance with the CNBV data, and to members of Banco Azteca for meeting with me to discuss the bank model. For Chapter 2, I would like to thank participants in the 2015 WEAI Graduate Dissertation Workshop, SEA 2015, and UC Irvine for their helpful comments and feedback. The copyright for Chapter 3 belongs to Lisa Cameron, Manisha Shah, and me. Lisa Cameron and Manisha Shah have given their express permission for its use in this manuscript. We would like to thank Sarah Baird as well as participants at George Washington University, UC Irvine, ANU, University of Adelaide, UNSW, IMPAQ International, and APPAM 2015 for their valuable comments and feedback. We gratefully acknowledge funding for this project from the Australian Research Council and Jameel Poverty Action Lab Southeast Asia (J-PAL SEA). I gratefully acknowledge funding provided by the Graduate Dean's Dissertation Fellowship, University of California, Irvine and the Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine. viii CURRICULUM VITAE Jennifer Elizabeth Muz EDUCATION Doctor of Philosophy in Economics 2016 University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA Master of Arts in Economics 2012 University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA Bachelor of Science in Economics 2010 Michigan State University East Lansing, MI Bachelor of Arts in International Relations 2010 Michigan State University East Lansing, MI FIELDS Development Economics, Labor Economics, Health Economics, Economics of the Family WORKING PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS \The Impact of Job Loss on Fertility Decisions among Dual-Earner Households: Evidence from the Great Recession, Working Paper December 2015. \Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work, with Lisa Cameron and Manisha Shah, Working Paper May 2016. \The Impact of Microcredit on Household Welfare: The Case of Banco Azteca in Mexico, Working Paper May 16, CEPP Discussion Paper Series August 2015. \The `Business Climate and Economic Inequality, with David Neumark, Review of Income and Wealth, DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12146, 2014. \Job Growth and Economic Growth in California, with David Neumark, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, April 15, 2013. ix HONORS AND AWARDS Graduate Deans Dissertation Fellowship Award 2015-16, University of California, Irvine (June 2015) 2015 Graduate Student Dissertation Workshop selected participant, Western Economic As- sociation International (June 2015) Art DeVany Prize for Best Presentation, Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, (November 2014) Summer Funding, Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, (Summer 2012; Summer 2013; Summer 2014; Summer 2015) Edward A. and Eleanor B. Carlin
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