NATO OPEN DOOR: TEN YEARS AFTER THE “BIG BANG” Vilnius, 3-4 April 2014

Hosted by:

PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA DALIA GRYBAUSKAITĖ

Organized by:

G NER Y SE E CU O R T I A T Y N

C E E C N N T E R L E O EL F EXC CENTRE FOR GEOPOLITICAL STUDIES MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENCE OF LITHUANIA GENERAL INFORMATION

VENUE

The Vilnius Conference 2014 will take place in the Office of the President of the Republic of Lithuania S. Daukanto a. 3, LT-01122 Vilnius.

HOTELS

Artis Centrum Hotel Narutis Hotel Liejyklos Str. 11/23, Pilies Str. 24, LT-01120 Vilnius, Lithuania; LT-01123 Vilnius, Lithuania; +370 52660366 +370 52122894

Kempinski Hotel Cathedral Square Novotel Vilnius Hotel Universiteto Str. 14, Gedimino av. 16, LT-01122 Vilnius, Lithuania; LT-01103 Vilnius, Lithuania; +370 5221100 +370 52666200

Amberton Hotel Radisson Blu Astorija Hotel L. Stuokos-Gucevičiaus Str. 1, Didžioji Str. 35, LT-01122 Vilnius, Lithuania; LT-01128 Vilnius, Lithuania; +370 52107461 +370 5212 0110

SECURITY

Foreign nationals are advised to have their photo ID throughout the whole span of the visit. You will be asked to show your ID at the entrance to the venue of the Vilnius conference. The organizers would appreciate if you wear your conference badge/pin thourghout the whole conference. In case of emergency, please call emergency line – 112. TABLE OF CONTENTS

4 CONTACT PERSONS

5 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

6 PROGRAMME

8 SPEAKERS OF THE ACADEMIC SESSIONS

3 CONTACT PERSONS

These persons are ready to help in case of any uncertainties:

Ms. Gerda Jakštaitė Support staff manager Mail: [email protected] Mobile: +370 60002335

Mr. Justinas Juozaitis Contact person for the speakers Mail: [email protected] Mobile: +370 61458308

Mr. Bartas Trakymas Contact person for the Ministers of Defence Mail: [email protected] Mobile: +370 61014209

Ms. Rūta Rudinskaitė Contact person for the Ministers of Foreign Affairs Mail: [email protected] Mobile: +370 61283626

4 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

On March 29, 2004, seven countries – Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slo- vakia and Slovenia – formally became parties to the North Atlantic Treaty. This historic event has strengthened overall security in the Euro-Atlantic area and contributed to our common goal of a Eu- rope whole and free. At the same time, significant changes took place in the domestic politics of the Alliance’s neighbors (Ukraine, Georgia), which have led to transformations of their foreign policy. In parallel, an approach to threats has changed, i.e. more attention was focused on asymmetric, hybrid by nature threats such as energy supply disruptions, economic and financial crisis (the main cause of the declining defense spending), migration challenges, cyber threats, etc. As a consequence NATO started and in some cases completed the missions, which determined the direction of the development of the organization for more than a decade. All in all, almost everything - structure, ca- pacities, complexion of the operations, relations with partners – has changed during the last decade. CEE countries (including the Baltic States), took the opportunity to lead the important pro- cesses within the Alliance. Creation of centers of the excellence, active participation in NATO opera- tions, contribution to the new NATO security concept, sharing the experience of NATO accession with close partners and future members in the South and in the East are only few examples to men- tion in this regard. Today time has come to assess the changes in the Alliance and the CEE region, evaluate the security situation in the region, the region’s contribution to the Alliance, as well as these countries’ interests and aspirations within NATO. Ten years on, we would like to commemorate this day and to evaluate the progress NATO and the new Member States have achieved. By connecting the past events with the Alliance’s situation today, the Conference participants will identify the les- sons learned of the past decade and draw conclusions for the future of NATO’s “open door policy”.

5 PROGRAMME

Thursday, 3rd April

13:00-13:30 Opening of the Conference Opening remarks by prof. Juozas Augutis, Vice-Rector for Research of Vytautas Magnus University

13:30-15:00 Session 1: Panel Discussion “Historic Importance of NATO Enlargement”

Seven new members joining NATO in 2004 constituted the largest ever increase in membership. By this move alone, NATO has overcome the Cold-War divisions of Europe. What this event has meant for the overall security in Europe? What new possibilities and capabilities this enlargement has added to the Alliance? Is there a possibility for repeating such numerous addition to NATO membership in the future?

Chair Antanas Valionis, Former Minister of Foreign affairs of Lithuania Speakers Bogdan Klich, Senator, Poland Imants Liegis, Latvia’s Ambassador to Hungary, former Minister of Defence Chris Donnelly, Former Special Adviser for Central and Eastern European Affairs to the NATO Secretary General Merle Maigre, Security Policy Adviser to the President, Estonia Andris Sprūds, Director, Latvian Institute of International Affairs

15:00-15:30 Coffee break

15:30-17:00 Session 2: Ministers’ Roundtable “Relevance of NATO “Open Door” Policy”

Five years after the last enlargement what is the rationale behind NATO’s “Open Door” policy? Can NATO membership perspective remain as a key tool to ensure stability in and near Europe? What does Euro-Atlantic integration perspective mean in the Baltics, Western Balkans and South Caucasus? Welcome by H.E. Ms Dalia Grybauskaitė, President of the Republic of Lithuania

Chair H. E. Linas Linkevičius, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania, H. E. Juozas Olekas, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Lithuania Speakers Foreign and Defence Ministers of Belgium, Georgia, Slovenia and Baltic and Adriatic Charter countries and observers Alexander Vershbow, NATO Deputy Secretary General

19:00 Gala Dinner at the Palace of the Grand Dukes of Lithuania (by invitation only) Welcoming remarks by His Excellency Algirdas Butkevičius, Prime Minister of the Republic of Lithuania

6 Friday, 4rd April

09:00-10:30 Session 3: Panel Discussion “Partners’ Role: Competitor, Spectator, Contributor or Decision Maker?”

Who can be NATO Partners and what are the tools? What role can NATO Partners have in the process of Alliance’s policy making? Can the NATO-Russia Council (which was established just before the 2004 enlargement) become a real tool of overcoming further divisions in Europe? Chair Col. Romualdas Petkevičius, Director, NATO ENSEC COE Speakers Steven Pifer, Former US ambassador to Ukraine, Director of the Brookings Arms Control Initiative Giorgi Dolidze, Director of the Department of Security Policy and Euro-Atlantic Integration David J. Smith, Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli, Professor of Security and Energy Policy, Baku State University

10:30-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-12:30 Session 4: Panel Discussion “Future of NATO: Adopting to the Changing Geopolitical and Military Realities”

NATO’s Strategic Concept sets three major tasks for the Alliance: collective defence, crisis management, cooperative security. Is this NATO vision a result of compromise or does it represent realistic way forward for the Alliance? Can NATO continue to play its role with an emergence of the “new” threats and challenges? What additional tools, capabilities or adaptations NATO may need to achieve its goals to stay relevant in the changing security environment? Chair Col. Janos Szonyegi, Head, Strategic Analysis Branch at NATO Speakers Sorin Ducaru, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges Lt. Gen. Arvydas Pocius, Chief of Defence of Lithuania Rob De Wijk, Director, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Netherlands Arūnas Molis, Head of Strategic Analysis and Research Division, NATO ENSEC COE Sven Biscop, Director, Europe in the World Programme, EGMONT Royal Institute for International Relations

13:00 Lunch buffet at the Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania (White Hall)

7 SPEAKERS OF THE ACADEMIC SESSIONS

Mr. Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli, of the Baku State University

Mr. Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli is a lecturer of the Baku State University. His main areas of expertise are security, energy politics and fiscal aspects of the energy projects. He has spoken at numerous institutions, univer- sities, think-tanks and is frequent speaker at international conferences. In 2001 he was winner of the Scientific Competition on Oil and Gas Re- searches conducted by the Ministry of Education and National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan. In 2009 he was honoured with special Ema- nuel Nobel Memorial Medal by Baku Nobel Heritage Fund for imple- mentation of World Energy Politics discipline at Baku State University and researches on contemporary energy politics. Mr. Aslanbayli is the author of one book and more than 50 professional articles and commentaries. He holds B.A. and M.A. in International Relations from the Baku State University and is currently PhD researcher at the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences.

Prof. dr. Sven Biscop, Director, Europe in the World Programme, EGMONT Royal Institute for International Relations

Prof. dr. Sven Biscop obtained degree in political science and public ad- ministration at Ghent University in 1998. Prof. dr. S. Biscop is the director of the Europe in the World programme at Egmont – the Royal Institute for International Relations. He also teaches, at Ghent University and at the College of Europe, Bruges. He is a member of the Executive Academic Board of the European Union’s European Security and Defence College. Prof. dr. S. Biscop is a Senior Research Associate of the Centre for Euro- pean Studies at the Renmin University of China, Beijing, and Associate Fellow of the Austria Institute for European and Security Policy. He is a member of the scientific councils of the Flemish Peace Institute, the Institut d’Etudes Stratégiques de l’Ecole Militaire, and of the Strategic Advisors Group of the Atlantic Council. He is a Member of the board of the Flemish United Nations Association, serves on the committee of the University Association for Contempo- rary European Studies. Prof. dr. S. Biscop co-edits the European Strategy & Security book series. He is the editor-in-chief of Egmont’s journal Studia Diplomatica. He is also a member of the editorial boards of the number of journals.

8 Mr. Chris Donnelly, Director of The Institute for Statecraft

After graduating in Russian Studies from the University of Manches- ter in 1969, Chris Donnelly taught at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst for three years before helping to establish the Army’s Soviet Studies Research Centre there. In 1989 he became Special Adviser to the NATO Secretary General, serving four Secretaries General in that position. He joined the Defence Academy of the UK in August 2003, responsible for developing the non-technical research process. He set up, and until April 2007 headed, the Defence Academy’s Advanced Re- search and Assessment Group. He retired from the post of Senior Fellow of the Defence Academy in 2010 to become co–Director of TheI nstitute for Statecraft. Ch. Donnelly has written three books and many articles, especially on Russian and Eastern European issues and on questions of security, strategy and statecraft. He has held appointments as specialist Adviser to three UK Defence Secretaries and sat on PM Thatcher’s Soviet advisory team. He is cur- rently adviser to the Foreign Minister of Lithuania.

Amb. Sorin Ducaru, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges

Ambassador Sorin Ducaru took over the post of Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges in 2013. In 2006–2013, Am- bassador S. Ducaru served as Romania’s Permanent Representative to the North Atlantic Council. Ambassador S. Ducaru joined the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1993, assuming various offices such as member of the Policy Planning team, counsellor to the Minister, spokesman of the MFA and Director for NATO and Strategic Issues. In 2000–2001, Ambassador S. Ducaru served as Permanent Representative of Romania to the United Nations. In 2001–2006 he served as Romania’s Ambassador to the United States of America. Ambassador S. Ducaru graduated from the Polytechnic Institute of Bucharest and later the Roma- nian National School of Political Studies and Public Administration. He has a MPhil Degree in In- ternational Relations from the University of Amsterdam and in 2005 received PhD in International Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest. Ambassador S. Ducaru was awarded with numerous Romanian awards for his service: the Nation- al Order of “Faithful Service” in rank of Commander, the Order for “Diplomatic Merit”, the rank of Knight of the National Order “The Star of Romania”.

9 Bogdan Klich, Senator of the Republic of Poland

Born on 8 May 1960 in Kraków, Poland. Senator since November 2011. Minister of National Defence between 2007-2011. Member of the Eu- ropean Parliament between 2004-2007. Member of the foreign affairs committee and chairman of the delegation for relations with Belarus. Member of the Sejm (lower chamber of the Polish parliament) between 2001-2004. Deputy Minister of National Defence (1999-2000) responsi- ble for Poland’s cooperation with NATO. Lecturer at the Department of European Studies of the Jagiellonian University since 2002. Lecturer at the Cracow University of Economics since the academic year 2013/2014. Author of numerous publications concerning foreign policy and interna- tional security. Founder of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Kraków (a think tank). Member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Active in the democratic opposition movement in late 1970’s and 1980’s. Interned during martial law. Member of regional and central authorities of the Civic Platform party. Holds MD and MA from Jagiellonian University. Married, has three children. Speaks English and French.

Amb. Imants Lieģis, Ambassador of the Republic of Latvia to Hungary

Mr. Imants Lieģis was Latvia’s Ambassador to NATO in the pre-acces- sion period until Latvia joined NATO 10 years ago. Thereafter he was Ambassador to the EU Political and Security Committee and for a short time Ambassador to Spain. Other Ambassadorial appointments include the Benelux countries. He is currently Latvia’s Ambassador to Hungary, also accredited to Montenegro and awaiting accreditation to Slovenia and Croatia. He has worked as a career diplomat since 1992, and previously worked as a lawyer in England, where he was born and educated. From March 2009 until November 2010 Imants Lieģis served in Government as Min- ister of Defence (and Acting Minister of Justice from May 2010). Fol- lowing that he was elected to Latvia’s Parliament for one year, working as Chairman of the European Affairs Committee and Head of Delegation to NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly. He is a Research Fellow at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Board Member of the European Leadership Network for multilateral nuclear disarmament and non proliferation issues. He has published works on foreign affairs and defence and security matters.

10 Ms. Merle Maigre, Security Policy Adviser to the President of Estonia

Ms. Merle Maigre is the Security Policy Adviser to the President of Es- tonia, Mr. Toomas Hendrik Ilves, responsible for covering information and advising to the President of Estonia about internal and external se- curity policy issues including Estonia’s defence reform, NATO and cy- ber security. Ms. Merle Maigre previously worked as a Policy Adviser at the Policy Planning Unit at Private Office of the Secretary General of NATO. Work involved providing NATO Secretary General with long term action-oriented policy thinking about Smart Defence, Connected Forces Initiative and other NATO’s strategic interests including NATO-Russia. In 2007-2010 Ms. Merle Maigre worked as a researcher at the Estonian think-tank International Centre for Defence Studies, focusing on Ukraine and energy security, in 2005–2007 she was as a Deputy Head of the NATO Liaison Office in Kyiv, and in 2000–2004 worked in the NATO Department of Estonian Ministry of Defence. In 2009-2010 was advisor for Ukrainian government on NATO integration and Annual National Programme drafting process, as well as the advisor for the government on Montenegro on Euro-Atlantic integration.

Dr. Arunas Molis, Head of Strategic analysis and research division at the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence

Dr. Arunas Molis assumed duties as Head of Strategic analysis and re- search division at the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence in January 2013. He follows his academic career since 2003 then he started teaching European security at , Institute of Interna- tional relations and political science (VU IIRPS). He holds BA in politi- cal science from VU IIRPS, M.A. in European Studies from Hochschule Bremen (University of applied sciences), and PhD in political sciences from VU IIRPS. From 2010 he works as associated professor at Vytautas Magnus University (in Kaunas), Faculty of Political Science and Diplo- macy, same position he holds at VU IIRPS. Since 2008 he holds visiting or other appointments at the Tartu University, the Baltic Defence Col- lege, Euroacademia (all in Estonia), Bologna University (Italy), Hochschule Bremen (Germany). From 2002-2005 he worked at the Defence policy and planning division at the Ministry of Defence of Lithuania. Dr. Molis has published articles on European security and defence, energy security, NATO, Russia, Belarus. He is regularly consulting Lithuanian government on the issues related to the external dimension of the common EU energy policy, NATO-EU cooperation in the area of energy security EU integration.

11 Colonel Romualdas Petkevičius, Director of NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence

Colonel Romualdas Petkevičius is the Director of NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, before this assignment col. R. Petkevičius held posi- tion of Deputy director of Energy Security Centre under Ministry of For- eign Affairs. Col. R. Petkevičius graduated from Military Academy in Riga, Latvia in 1990. He joined Lithuanian Air Force in 1992and held various positions from chief engineer at First Airbase in Šiauliai, Lithuania to chief A4 branch of Lithuanian Air Force. In 2000 col. R. Petkevičius was appointed as the Director of NATO department in the Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania. In 2004 vol. R. Petkevičius was appointed to the position of Defence, Military, Air and Naval Attaché to the United States and Can- ada. In 2008-2011 col. R. Petkevičius served as National Military Representative of Lithuania to Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. Col. R. Petkevičius also graduated from Air Command and Staff College, Maxwell AFB, Montgom- ery, AL, USA, and later from Air War College, Maxwell AFB, Montgomery, Al. USA. Col. R. Petkevičius was awarded with The Order for Merits to Lithuania the Cross of Officer, and U.S. Legion of Merit (Degree of Officer).

Mr. Steven Pifer, director of the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative at the Brookings Institution.

Steven Pifer is a senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe and director of the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initia- tive at the Brookings Institution. He focuses on arms control, Ukraine and Russia. He frequently comments on these issues in the media and is co-author of The Opportunity: Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms. A retired Foreign Service officer, his more than 25 years with the State Department included assignments as deputy assistant secretary of state (2001-2004), U.S. ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000), and special assis- tant to the president and senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia on the National Security Council (1996-1997). He also served in War- saw, Geneva, Moscow and London.

12 Lieutenant General Arvydas Pocius, Chief of Defence of the Republic of Lithuania

Lieutenant General Arvydas Pocius is the current Chief of Defence of the Republic of Lithuania. During his military career, A. Pocius has held var- ious positions, including Chief of Staff of Voluntary Service of National Defence, and Commander of the Lithuanian Land Force. In March 1991 he joined Voluntary Service of National Defence of Lith- uania. On 30 December 1991 as Deputy Chief of Staff of Voluntary Ser- vice of National Defence A. Pocius was promoted to the rank of Ma- jor (Lithuanian Army). In 1993 A. Pocius was promoted to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. In 1994 A. Pocius was assigned as a Commander of Voluntary Service of National Defence. He was assigned to Command the Military District – East of the Lithuanian Armed Forces in 2002. In 2003-2004 A. Pocius studied at US Army War College and completed the course of strategic studies. On 30 June 2004 he was promoted to the rank of Brigadier General and was assigned as a Com- mander of the Lithuanian Land Forces; On 24 July 2009 he was assigned as Chief of Defence of the Republic of Lithuania and promoted to the rank of Major General. Since 2011 A. Pocius is Lieuten- ant General. Lieutenant General A. Pocius during 20 years of service in the Lithuanian Armed Forces was award- ed Order of the Cross of Vytis, Medal of January 13, Medal of the Founders Volunteers of the Lithu- anian Armed Forces, Commemorative Badge of Russian Army withdrawal from Lithuania, Medal of Merit of National Defence System.

Mr. David J. Smith, Director of the Georgian Security Analysis Centre

Ambassador David J. Smith is Director of the Georgian Security Analysis Centre in Tbilisi, Georgia and Senior Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in Washington. He is also Adjunct Lecturer of Cyber security at Utica College and Adjunct Professor of Security and Safety Leadership at George Washington University. In these roles, he builds on a 30 year career in international relations, including the US Air Force, Intelligence Community, Defence and State Departments, both houses of Congress and extensive think tank experience. His diplomatic expe- rience includes multilateral, alliance-to-alliance and bilateral negotia- tions. He has worked in Georgia for twelve years, first as the US Member of the International Security Advisory Board, and then as an adviser to various Georgian Government agencies. In 2006, he founded the Georgian Security Analysis Cen- tre at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. From 1989 until the demise of the , he was US Ambassador at the US-Soviet Defence and Space talks. He holds degrees from the University of Arizona, London School of Economics and Harvard University

13 Colonel Janos Szonyegi, Head, Strategic Analysis Branch at NATO Headquarters

Colonel Janos Szonyegi is the Strategic Analysis Branch Head at Al- lied Command Transformation in Norfolk, United States. He has been working on NATO strategic level issues for 14 years. Previously, he filled positions both at the NATO HQ in Brussels as a national representative and in several national positions in the Hungarian Ministry of Defence. He held the positions of Deputy Head of Department, Strategic Analysis and Planning Branch Head; Senior Defence Policy Advisor on NATO Affairs; Defence Policy Advisor. His current portfolio includes the development and implementation of the Strategic Foresight Analysis that embraces the challenges and op- portunities members of the North Atlantic Alliance might face in NATO’s military transformation. Colonel Szonyegi has a Master of Science degree from Budapest Technical University, a Master of Arts in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Canada and is currently a PhD Student in International Studies at the Old Dominion University in Norfolk, US.

Prof. dr. Rob de Wijk, Director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Prof. dr. Rob de Wijk is the director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. Mr De Wijk studied Contemporary History and International Re- lations in Groningen, and wrote his PhD dissertation on NATO’s ‘Flex- ibility in Response’ strategy at the Political Science Department of Leiden University. Mr. De Wijk started his career in 1977 as a freelance journalist and later became lecturer in International Relations at Leiden University’s Political Science Department. Mr De Wijk also worked at the Ministry of Defence of Netherlands, where he was instrumental in the restructuring of the Dutch armed forces in the early nineties. Other positions he held, include director of the Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme and Professor in the field of International Relations at the Royal Netherlands Military Academy. Cur- rently, he is not only the director of HCSS, but also director of The Hague Security Delta, Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, chairman of the National Security Think Tank (Den- ktank Nationale Veiligheid), a member of the Strategic Advisors Group of the Atlantic Council in Washington and columnist for the national daily Trouw. Steven Pifer is a senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe and director of the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative at the Brookings Institution. He focuses on arms control, Ukraine and Russia. He frequently comments on these issues in the media and is co-author of The Opportunity: Next Steps in Reducing Nuclear Arms. A retired Foreign Service officer, his more than 25 years with the State Department included assignments as deputy assistant secretary of state (2001-2004), U.S. ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000), and special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia on the National Security Council (1996-1997). He also served in Warsaw, Geneva, Moscow and London.

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