Stafford Borough Council Economic and Housing Development Needs Assessment EHDNA Stafford Borough Council January 2020 © 2020 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd, trading as Lichfields. All Rights Reserved. Registered in England, no. 2778116. 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL Formatted for double sided printing. Plans based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A 42180/01/SPM/CR [Reference] Stafford Borough Council : Economic and Housing Development Needs Assessment Executive Summary Housing Market Area / Functional Economic Market Area Over the past ten years or so, the Borough has experienced a strengthening level of self-containment, with migratory patterns expanding and more people moving into the Borough from the adjoining Staffordshire authorities than before. There are very strong migration links between the Borough, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. The Borough has a self-containment rate of 71% for in-migration, and 73% for out- migration when short household moves are considered and therefore exceeds the threshold for a self- contained Housing Market Area (HMA) set out previously in the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). Median house prices vary significantly across the Borough, but are in line with those in adjacent areas in neighbouring local authorities. As the Borough is a predominantly rural district with overlapping HMAs and a number of other authorities nearby, it is considered both reasonable and pragmatic to take the administrative boundaries of the Borough as being a ‘best fit’ HMA for planning purposes. ONS Travel to Work Areas [TTWA] suggests that the Borough is a self-contained TTWA, albeit with some overlap with the Wolverhampton TTWA to the south. The Borough’s office and industrial property market is understood to be characterised largely by localised demand, driven by the Borough’s industrial property market. However, the Borough also performs as a sub-regional hub for logistics depots due to its links to the M6 motorway. Relatively high levels of retail retention indicate a reasonably high degree of self-containment within the Borough but the Borough does fall within the Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP). On balance, it is considered that the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) predominantly aligns with the Borough’s administrative boundary. Area Portrait The Borough has seen significant population growth since 2002. Net migration has been consistently inward- moving since 2002, both in terms of internal and international migration. The younger working age population of the Borough has declined since 2001 whilst all other age groups have grown, with the older population growing most rapidly. Couples aged below 65 with no children are the most common household type, followed closely by couples with dependent children. There is a significant pattern of under-occupation, particularly by couples aged 65+, whilst over-occupation/over-crowding typically affects families with children. Detached properties are the most common house type, particularly in the rural areas of the Borough, and larger properties account for a greater proportion of dwellings than the regional or national averages. Almost three quarters of properties are owner occupied, particularly in the rural areas, and there is a greater proportion of larger dwellings than is the case regionally or nationally. House sales declined in the Borough during the recession but have since recovered, in line with the general trend in Staffordshire. Median and lower quartile house prices are higher in the Borough than the Staffordshire average, and have increased since the recession. Median house prices are generally higher in the rural areas of the Borough than in the towns of Stafford or Stone. The median rent paid in the Borough is comparable to the Staffordshire average. Affordability ratios have worsened; and lower quartile affordability ratios are worse than median ratios, indicating that those on lower incomes may struggle to afford even lower priced properties. The results of the New Homes Survey indicate that Stafford has the greatest mix of new homes in respect of house type, tenure and size; whilst rural Stafford is dominated by larger, detached new build homes. Both Stafford Town and the surrounding rural areas tend to draw from a wider migratory catchment area than Stone, where the market seems to be more contained. Stafford Borough Council : Economic and Housing Development Needs Assessment Socio-Economic Context Being a county town, Stafford has a higher proportion of public sector jobs than Staffordshire and the West Midlands. The public sector accounts for a significant amount of employment in the Borough overall when including health and social care. The bulk of overall employment in Stafford is made up across wholesale and retail trade, health and social care services, manufacturing, and accommodation and food services. Economic activity is comparatively high and the unemployment rate is significantly below the regional and national averages. Overall, deprivation within the Borough is low, despite some areas of Stafford town being in the top 10% for deprivation nationally. There is a diverse mix of business sectors within the Borough, with concentrations in Stafford and Stone. Future job growth prospects are moderate, and the restructuring of the Borough’s manufacturing sector is set to continue. Commercial Property Market 89% of the Borough’s employment floorspace is industrial. Office space has increased significantly since 2000 (albeit from a low base), whilst industrial space has experienced very modest growth overall, but has declined since 2009/10 as the Borough’s manufacturing economy has restructured. The majority of employment sites are clustered in and around Stafford itself, particularly offices, with a number of business parks and industrial estates located to the north and east of the town. The Borough has been successful in attracting substantial levels of inward investment, and has a wide variety of funding schemes and mechanisms to support growth of Small and Medium sized Enterprises [SMEs]. Commercial property market stakeholders identified that the Borough’s central location and excellent connectivity to the strategic road network are key strengths. Sites on the fringes of Stafford were considered particularly popular but the market in the east of the Borough is considered less strong. Stakeholders considered there to be a shortage of good quality B-Class land across the area. There is need for greater choice in the property market; with stakeholders suggesting that the size of units available is not always suitable for prospective businesses, and that there is a relative scarcity of smaller industrial units. The industrial and logistics sectors are considered to be performing well but there is less focus on office space, with town centre sites falling out of favour with businesses. It should also be acknowledged that the numerous smaller industrial estates located in rural parts of the Borough play a particularly important role in maintaining the sustainability of Stafford’s villages and are a key element of the area’s attractiveness as a place to live and work. Future Employment Needs The study has considered, through modelling a range of future economic scenarios, the level of future employment land which is required over the plan period. The scenarios include labour demand, past trends in completions of employment space, and local labour supply. The modelling undertaken, and subsequent analysis, identifies a future employment land requirement of between 68 ha to 181 ha over the plan period. It will be important to ensure that any employment land identified in the emerging plan takes into consideration the views from the market and relative market strengths to ensure demand for employment land is captured across the Borough, capitalising on its identified strengths. Local Housing Need The Local Housing Need [LHN] for the Borough as generated by the standard method in the National Planning Policy Framework [Framework] and Planning Practice Guidance [PPG] generates a figure of 408 dwellings per annum [dpa]. Given the demographic behaviour patterns observed in the Borough identified in the Mid Year Population Estimates [MYEs], and the alignment between these and the 2014-based Sub National Population Projections [SNPP], there are no significant exceptional circumstances to justify departing from the standard methodology approach as a minimum. However, delivering more than 408 dpa is supported through the Framework and PPG in several ways, and the Local Plan should consider the extent Stafford Borough Council : Economic and Housing Development Needs Assessment to which the standard method estimate of LHN is consistent with the economic success of Stafford and the wider area. Reasons why the Council may consider identifying a higher housing requirement figure in its emerging Local Plan include the need to accommodate a sufficient economically-active workforce to meet needs arising from projected economic growth, in particular taking into account the future strategic economic growth planned for the Borough through a potential Garden Community and Stafford Station Gateway. These developments are anticipated to generate around 12,470 jobs. 647 dpa (711 dpa based on the Partial Catch Up [PCU] Sensitivity Scenario) would be required to support this level of job