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Dynamics of Change in the US Air Transportation System

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Dynamics of Change in the US Air Transportation System 2 Abstract The US Air Transportation System is currently facing a number of challenges including an increasing demand for travel and growing environmental requirements. In order to successfully meet future needs, the system will need to transition from its current state using a combination of technology, infrastructure, procedure, and policy changes. However, the complexities of the air transportation system make implementing changes a challenge. In particular, the multi-stakeholder nature of the system poses a significant barrier to transition. Historically, many changes in the air transportation system were driven by safety concerns and implemented following accidents which provided the momentum to overcome transition barriers. As a result of past changes, the system has become increasingly safe resulting in the emergence of new drivers for change. Security has emerged as a driver following the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001 in the US and a number of system changes have since been implemented. Currently, capacity is one of the largest drivers of change. Addressing capacity issues requires solutions that can be accepted by stakeholders, and pass the necessary certification and approval requirements for implementation. The contribution of aviation to global greenhouse gas emissions is also becoming a significant driver for change in the system. The goal of this work is to understand how the air transportation system changes in response to safety, security, capacity, and environmental drivers for transition. In order to understand the dynamics of transition, historical cases of system change were studied. Twenty seven such cases have been analyzed to construct a feedback process model of transition and to explore specific change dynamics observed. These dynamics include: understanding the role of crisis events as catalyst for change; the effect that timing of solution development has on the overall time constant for change; the role that stakeholder objectives play in the transition process, and the use of approval and certification processes to stall or block change. Understanding the process of change in the US Air Transportation System can inform future changes in aviation as well as in other systems with similar properties. 3 Acknowledgments This work was supported by the FAA under the Joint University Program (JUP) [FAA95-G- 017] and the National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research (NEXTOR) [DTFA01-C-00030]. This document is based on the doctoral thesis of Aleksandra Mozdzanowska. 4 Contents 1 Introduction 9 1.1 The Air Transportation System . 9 1.2 Current Need for System Transition . 11 1.2.1 Safety Concerns as Drivers of System Change . 13 1.2.2 Security Concerns as Drivers of System Change . 14 1.2.3 Capacity Constraints as Drivers of System Change . 14 1.2.4 Environmental Concerns as Drivers of System Change . 17 1.3 Past Efforts of System Modernization . 21 1.4 Objective . 23 2 Research Approach 24 2.1 Topic Exploration . 25 2.2 Feedback Representation of System Transition . 25 2.2.1 Feedback Model Framework . 26 2.3 Case Studies . 28 2.3.1 Interviews . 30 3 Related Work and Literature Review 32 3.1 Models of Policy Change . 32 3.1.1 Rational Choice . 32 3.1.2 Incrementalism . 33 5 3.1.3 Agenda Building . 34 3.2 Stakeholder Dynamics . 36 3.2.1 Stakeholder Relationships . 36 3.2.2 Lock-in . 38 3.3 Existing Efforts at Understanding System Change . 40 3.3.1 Complex Adaptive Systems . 40 3.3.2 Socio-technical System Transition . 41 3.3.3 Climate Change and Adaptation . 42 3.4 Air Transportation System Change . 43 4 Case Studies 45 4.1 Overview of Case Studies . 45 4.1.1 Safety Case Studies (SA) . 45 4.1.2 Security Case Studies (SC) . 48 4.1.3 Capacity Case Studies (CA) . 49 4.1.4 Environment Case Studies (EN) . 55 4.2 Detailed Case Studies . 56 4.2.1 Detailed Safety Case (SA1): Controlled Flight Into Terrain Accidents 56 4.2.2 Detailed Safety Case (SA2): Windshear and Microburst Accidents . 68 4.2.3 Detailed Security Case (SC2): Need for Increased System Security Post 9/11 . 78 4.2.4 Detailed Capacity Case (CA7): Boston Capacity Limitations . 84 4.2.5 Detailed Capacity Case (CA8): LaGuardia Capacity Limitations . 92 4.2.6 Detailed Capacity Case (CA14): Outdated ATC Surveillance System 98 4.2.7 Detailed Environment Case (EN3): International Aviation Emissions 107 5 Awareness Building Process 112 5.1 Identifying the Need for Transition . 115 5.2 Communication and Dissemination of Awareness to a Broader Audience . 120 6 5.3 Mental Model Formation . 122 5.4 The Role of Catalytic Events . 123 5.4.1 Safety Drivers . 124 5.4.2 Security Drivers . 133 5.4.3 Predictive vs. Reactive Transition . 134 5.5 When Catalytic Events are Unclear . 135 5.5.1 Capacity Drivers . 136 5.5.2 Environmental Drivers . 138 5.6 Implications . 140 6 Change Process 141 6.1 Objective Formation—Costs and Benefits . 144 6.1.1 Example of Asymmetrical Cost and Benefit Distribution in Cases of Runway Construction . 149 6.1.2 Example of Multi-Stakeholder Dependencies in Airline Equipage Decisions . 151 6.2 Action Selection and Decision Refinement . 158 6.2.1 Stakeholder Power and the Role of Leadership . 161 6.2.2 Changing Stakeholder Preferences . 166 6.2.3 Adaptive vs. Transformative Change . 168 6.3 Resource Allocation . 169 6.4 Implications . 172 7 Solution Development Process 173 7.1 Research and Development . 173 7.2 Solutions . 175 7.2.1 Safety Solutions . 175 7.2.2 Security Solutions . 176 7.2.3 Capacity Solutions . 178 7 7.2.4 Environment Solutions . 179 7.3 Solution Availability . 181 7.3.1 Solution Viability . 183 7.4 Implications . 183 8 Implementation Process 185 8.1 Review Processes and Implementation Barriers . 189 8.1.1 Safety Review and Approval Processes . 189 8.1.2 The Environmental Review Process . 192 8.1.3 Deliberate Blocking of Transition . 199 8.2 Overcoming Barriers — Catalytic Events . 202 8.2.1 Example of a Capacity Catalytic Event in the Case of LaGuardia Slot Restrictions (CA8) . 203 8.3 Long Implementation Times . 207 8.4 Implications . 208 9 Conclusions and Implications 210 9.1 Transition Model . 211 9.2 Implications . 215 9.3 Applications to Other Systems . 218 8 Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 The Air Transportation System The US Air Transportation System is a complex, adaptive, socio-technical system that provides domestic and international flight services for both passengers and cargo. In 2004, the Air Transportation System handled over 70 thousand flights and 146 billion pounds of cargo per day [1]. These operations are enabled by a large infrastructure, numerous stakeholders, and a policy framework. Some of the major components and stakeholders of the system are shown in Table 1-1. Infrastructure Airports Control towers, control centers Communication, navigation, surveillance equipment Stakeholders Transportation providers Equipment providers Support service providers Government Public Media Policy Framework Regulations Procedures Table 1-1: Air Transportation System Components 9 Since its inception in the 1930s, the Air Transportation System has grown continuously and evolved from a luxury and hobby to become an important and necessary part of our economy and lives. Air transportation influences how we conduct business, run companies, visit loved ones, and go on vacation. A study conducted by NASA and the FAA concluded that the air transportation industry contributes about $80–90 billion a year to the national economy (about 1% of the US GDP) and employs about 800,000 people [2]. As a result, the health of the Air Transportation System and the national economy is highly interdependent. This inter- dependance can be seen in Figure 1-1 which shows that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the demand for air transportation have been closely coupled for the past 50 years. Figure 1-1: Annual percentage change in GDP and scheduled domestic revenue traffic, 1954–2000 with economic recessions [3]. Figure courtesy of R. John Hansman. Figure 1-2 shows the interaction between the Air Transportation System and the economy, which leads to the interdependence shown above. The transportation system takes as input the demand for travel and movement of goods, and supplies services to meet these demands. The ability of the system to meet these demands depends on the development of capabilities in the transportation infrastructure as well as the financial status of the transportation providers (airlines) and their ability to acquire appropriate aircraft. Thus, while the air transportation needs the economy to supply demand (and hence revenue) in order to continue operating and 10 growing, a healthy Air Transportation System is also vital for maintaining economic growth and competing in the global market. Figure 1-2: Schematic Diagram of Connection between Air Transportation and the Econ- omy [3]. Figure courtesy of R. John Hansman. In order to continue functioning and providing benefits, the Air Transportation System has to transition to meet changing conditions. Transition is defined as the process of change in a system in response to existing or expected changes in system conditions. 1.2 Current Need for System Transition Today the US Air Transportation System is facing emerging system requirements, growing demand, and the erosion of system components. In order to address these issues and continue meeting needs the system will need to transition. Demand for passenger and cargo travel has been growing since the creation of the system. Currently the growth of demand is out pacing the available system capacity, particularly airport resources, causing delays and disruptions. However, expanding to meet demand may prove to 11 be more difficult in the future as airports in high-demand areas are already near the limits of currently available resources, and new technologies face barriers to implementation.
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