The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade Trends, Threats, and Opportunities Daniel L. Byman • John R. Wise Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited R Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Byman, Daniel, 1967– The Persian Gulf in the coming decade : trends, threats, and opportunities / Daniel L. Byman, John R. Wise. p. cm. “MR-1528.” Includes bibliographical references (p.). ISBN 0-8330-3206-2 1. Persian Gulf Region. 2. Persian Gulf Region—Relations—United States. 3. United States—Relations—Persian Gulf Region. I. Wise, John R. II. Title. DS326 .B96 2002 953.6—dc21 2002026577 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email:
[email protected] PREFACE This report examines likely challenges to U.S.