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Covid-19 – Krizový Tahák: Co Funguje a Proč Covid-19 – Krizový tahák: Co funguje a proč © Contagious 2020 1 Obsah Proč tento dokument Ekonomický výhled Co dělat teď Jak se připravit na to co přijde Případové studie z Contagious I/O Tento materiál je připraven z volně dostupných zdrojů a z autorských textů a materiálů společnosti Contagious s. r. o. Jeho další šíření podléhá licenci Creative Commons Uveďte původ – Zachovejte licenci 4.0. Její plné znění je k dispozici zde. 2 Proč tenhle dokument a co v něm vlastně je Je zřejmé, že dnes je dobrá rada nad zlato. Zažíváme změny Připravit whitepaper, který radí, jak se současnou situací naložit, zavedených pořádků, jejichž nejen ekonomické, ale i sociální a není zrovna lehký úkol. Data a předpovědi se mění či upřesňují psychologické dopady se předpovídají jen těžko. Základní výzva prakticky denně. V mezičase vyšly desítky, ne-li stovky dokumentů, však pro nás marketéry zůstává stále stejná – nalézt, vytvořit prezentací a doporučení s rozdílnou kvalitou a expertízou. Při a dodat opravdovou hodnotu pro zákazníka a pro naši našem výběru jsme se primárně soustředili na míru expertízy a firmu. akceschopnost. Vybírali jsme pouze jasná doporučení z důvěryhodných zdrojů. V úvodu naleznete krátké shrnutí Oproti „normálu“ se ovšem dramaticky změnil kontext, ve ekonomického výhledu jak pro Českou republiku tak i z kterém se naše marketingové snažení odehrává. Nejen jak globálního pohledu. žijeme, nakupujeme, pracujeme, ale i to co se nám při tom honí hlavou. Do našeho emergency taháku jsme vybrali to, co Jednak shrnujeme změnu způsobu uvažování v populaci, která opravdu považujeme za důležité vědět – pokud chcete i v této díky krizi nastala a zároveň sdílíme doporučení týkající se pohnuté době dělat opravdu efektivní marketing. Najdete zde marketingových prostředků, jež máme k dispozici včetně střípky od MIT, z Harvardu, BBH, Accenture, McKinsey, Marka doporučení, jak je během koronavirové krize využít. Dokument Josef Havelka Ritsona, Economist, Prophet, Boardofinnovation.com a v doplňujeme obecným shrnutím informací o marketingu v recesi. CEO neposlední řadě vybrané případové studie z platformy Najdete v něm data, která můžete předložit svému CFO na příštím Contagious CZ/SK Contagious I/O. Jednotlivé ukázky kampaní ilustrují, co máme jednání o rozpočtu. Na závěr se věnujeme „novému normálu“: Co si na mysli, když tvrdíme, že kreativita a odvaha jsou klíčem pod tímto termínem představit, proč vzniká a co si s ním počít? k řešení jakéhokoliv problému včetně toho koroňákového. 3 Je dost dobře možné, že i po přečtení našeho krizového taháku budete mít další otázky. Proto jsme připravili další možnosti. Otevíráme naši I/O databázi. Každý zájemce dostane přístup na 24 hodin čistého času. Pokud vám to nebude stačit, nabízíme hodinové video konzultace zdarma. Přístupové údaje do I/O nebo termín konzultace získejte zde. Kreativnímu promořování zdar! Jsme Contagious! Pořád nás najdete na www.contagious.cz 4 Situace je vážná, nikoliv zoufalá “We’re living through “We have never seen “...the shock ripping “The shock to our lives The magnitude and a period where market anything like this through the business and livelihoods from speed of collapse in dynamics are almost pandemic, and there is world is daunting. With the virus-suppression activity that has followed impossible to predict. no playbook for how to countries accounting for efforts could be is unlike anything We will no doubt look adjust your marketing over 50% of world GDP the biggest of the past experienced in our back at this and change strategies and in lockdown, 100 years. lifetimes.” how we handle advertising budgets. the collapse in pandemics in the future, Moreover, in today’s commercial activity is Gita Gopinath, the but for now, we must all difficult times, the right far more severe than in fund’s chief economist live day-to-day and take answer for a grocer will previous recessions. The IMF decisions based on be radically different exit path from the best available than for a luxury goods lockdowns will be information.” player.” precarious, with uneasy consumers, a stop-start Gfk, April 2020 McKinsey & Co rhythm that inhibits efficiency, and tricky new health protocols.” The Economist 5 Nová manažerská hygiena Chcete-li úspěšně nicméně tam, kde se to 1. Update intelligence on a daily basis. reagovat na denně se podaří, je větší šance na měnící situaci, je klíčové adaptaci a tedy i úspěch. 2. Beware of hype cycles / news cycles. uvědomit si, že staré 3. Don’t assume that information creates informedness. dobré návyky, pravidla a procesy buď přestávají 4. Use experts and forecasts carefully. platit a fungovat nebo 5. Constantly reframe your understanding of what’s obojí. Harvard Business Review happening. publikovalo ke 6. Beware of bureaucracy. koronavirové krizi celý soubor materiálů.* Vypíchli jsme z nich 6 manažerských pravidel. Ne všechna jsou zcela jednoduše aplikovatelná – zejména ve velkých korporacích – *Lead Your Business Through the Coronavirus Crisis, by Martin Reeves, Nikolaus Lang, and Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, FEBRUARY 27, 2020 6 Současná situace a výhled Je zřejmé, že Jeden z prvních Na další straně Covid-19 bude výhledů dalšího jsme dále připojili ještě nějakou dobu vývoje v ČR dala tři scénáře České ovlivňovat vše, co dohromady spořitelny , děje. investiční skupina přestože se nám Miton. (zde) zde v Contagious Nechceme zde jeví ve srovnání s spekulovat, jak Krátkou summary evropským či dlouho to ještě připravil Pavel světovým potrvá a kdy Marek, hlavní výhledem jako je/bylo dobré začít ekonom výrazně uvolňovat poradenské optimistické. restriktivní firmy Deloitte. opatření. 7 Vyčíslit odhady škod je pokles nových Přesto ale může být 5-10 předzásobení v obavách zapojeny do značně nyní obtížné, protože objednávek u výrobních procent zaměstnanců z dalšího vývoje. Tento komplexních řetězců stále nevíme, kdy bude firem v průmyslu, a podnikatelů vyřazeno dočasný vzestup bude s vysokou specializací šíření koronaviru případně pokles dovozu. z práce nebo výrazně ovšem záhy jednotlivých článků. eskalovat a kdy začne S poklesem ekonomické omezeno v pracovní kompenzovat podobně České firmy ve výrobě odeznívat. Nicméně aktivity souvisí nižší činnosti. Při měsíčním velký pokles prodeje intenzivně využívají můžeme uvést několik spotřeba energií, apod. nouzovém režimu tohoto zboží. Důležité dovážených údajů pro ilustraci. ekonomiky by ztráty ovšem je, že zvýšená meziproduktů. Silné Odvětví, která jsou Všechna odvětví mohly dosahovat zhruba nejistota nikdy zapojení do výrazně paralyzována, negativně zasahují 1-1,2 procenta HDP, což nesvědčila výdajům za mezinárodního obchodu například maloobchod, nucené prázdniny pro odpovídá 60-70 zbytné zboží a s sebou nese vyšší sport, kultura, školství, školáky a studenty. miliardám korun. investicím. Kvantifikovat výnosy, ale také knihovny, letecká V Česku je zhruba jeden dopady i větší hrozby při doprava, stravování milion rodin s dětmi do Další negativní dopady v této oblasti je dost otřesech globální a ubytování nebo 12 let a zhruba 600 tisíc může přinést panika obtížné, ilustrací však ekonomiky s narušením cestovní kanceláře, se na rodin spoléhá na to, že a strach ochromující může být recese z let výrobních řetězců. tvorbě HDP podílí děti v tomto věku spotřebu domácností 2012 a 2013 způsobená Postup koronaviru zhruba 10 procenty. Na obvykle chodí do školy. a firemní investice. podobnými důvody. napříč Evropou tato odvětví je navázána Nyní ale musí jeden a dramatická preventivní Krátkodobě se celá řada dalších oblastí z rodičů zůstat doma. V neposlední řadě je opatření jsou přesně samozřejmě projeví ekonomiky. Zavřené nutné zmínit narušení takovým příkladem. Částečně situaci zvýšené nákupy obchody znamenají globálních hodnotových zachraňují prarodiče potravin, základní řetězců. České firmy jsou a možnost práce drogerie a léků v rámci v narůstající míře z domova. *Pavel Marek, Deloitte 8 Nejistota ohledně dalšího vývoje české ekonomiky ve scénářích České spořitelny* Scénář Oživení za 3M Scénář Oživení za 6M Scénář Rychlého Růst HDP (%) 2020 2021 vychází z předpokladu, vychází z předpokladu, oživení optimisticky že omezení ekonomiky že by omezení ekonomik předpokládá rychlý Oživení za 3M - 6,7 3,0 bude díky karanténě trvalo déle a ekonomika nástup „smart a dodavatelským se začala postupně karantény“, zvýšení Oživení za 6M -9,9 0,4 problémům pokračovat normalizovat až vládních opatření pro po většinu druhého v průběhu podzimu. podporu ekonomiky Rychlé oživení -4,2 3,8 čtvrtletí. Zároveň díky Takový vývoj by logicky a především jejich rychlé poklesu důvěry firem a znamenal větší propad nasazení a velmi dobré podniků poklesnou ekonomiky a část zvládnutí situace v EU. investice negativních efektů Restart ekonomiky tak Míra nezaměst. (%) 2020 2021 a budou více postižená bychom viděli ještě bude snazší a důvěra procyklická odvětví. v roce 2021. nebude tolik ochromená, Oživení za 3M 3 4,8 což se projeví především v roce 2021. Oživení za 6M 3,3 5,7 Rychlé oživení 2,7 3,6 *Zdroj: Česká spořitelna 9 Nejistota ohledně dalšího vývoje české ekonomiky ve scénářích České spořitelny* Míra inflace (%) 2020 2021 EUR/CZK (konec r.) 2020 2021 Oživení za 3M 2,9 1,3 Oživení za 3M 26,45 25,35 Oživení za 6M 2,8 0,8 Oživení za 6M 27,71 26,30 Rychlé oživení 3,1 1,7 Rychlé oživení 25,80 24,70 Repo sazba 2020 2021 Oživení za 3M 0,75 1,25 Oživení za 6M 0,25 0,50 Rychlé oživení 1 1,5 *Zdroj: Česká spořitelna 10 Globální výhled: relativně optimistická OECD...* Prospects for the major A similar, albeit less Canada, although the The projections for the A gradual, albeit modest, economies are mixed: pronounced, pattern is decline in confidence, United Kingdom and the recovery in many Prospects for China have projected in many disruption to supply euro area are based on emerging-market been revised down economies strongly chains and weaker an assumption that economies is projected markedly in 2020, with interconnected with external demand will a basic free trade for 2020-21, but calendar year GDP China, including Japan, moderate growth agreement for goods the extent of this growth projected to be Korea, Australia and prospects.
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