Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Western Ground Parrot Pezoporus wallicus flaviventris

Key Findings

Western Ground Parrots are currently known from only two locations in south-western WA. Initial declines caused by habitat loss and degradation are now exacerbated by higher fire frequencies, predation from introduced carnivores and sustained reductions in rainfall. Recovery actions have averted extinction through protecting wild populations from fire and introduced predators, however, this species’ limited numbers and the vulnerability of their small area of occupied habitat to fire is challenging and the outlook is perilous. Photo: Abby Berryman Significant trajectory change from 2005-15 to 2015-18? No, ongoing decline

Priority future actions

• Ongoing effective cat and fox control • Ongoing phytophthora quarantine • Sucessful captive breeding and reintroduction to previously occupied areas

Full assessment information Background information 2018 population trajectory assessment

1. Conservation status and taxonomy 8. Expert elicitation for population trends 2. Conservation history and prospects 9. Immediate priorities from 2019 3. Past and current trends 10. Contributors 4. Key threats 11. Legislative documents 5. Past and current management 12. References 6. Support from the Australian Government 13. Citation 7. Measuring progress towards conservation

The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, including estimating the change in population trajectory of 20 bird species. It has been prepared by experts from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub, with input from a number of taxon experts, a range of stakeholders and staff from the Office of the Threatened Species Commissioner, for the information of the Australian Government and is non-statutory. It has been informed by statutory planning documents that guide recovery of the species, such as Recovery Plans and/or Conservation Advices (see Section 11). The descriptive information in this scorecard is drawn from Department of Parks and Wildlife (2014), unless otherwise noted by additional citations.

The background information aims to provide context for estimation of progress in research and management (Section 7) and estimation of population size and trajectories (Section 8).

1 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

1. Conservation status and taxonomy Taxonomy: Conservation status 2018 Species P. wallicus is Least Concern, eastern subspecies, P. wallicus wallicus is Near IUCN Critically Endangered Threatened. Taxonomic distinctiveness EPBC Critically Endangered medium: 79 genera/family, 2 species/genus, 3 subspecies/species. WA Critically Endangered

2. Conservation history and prospects Much Western Ground Parrot habitat was burnt repeatedly or cleared for grazing before the rarity of the parrot was appreciated. In the mid-1980s, however, habitat on the northern margin of the Fitzgerald River National Park was deliberately conserved for the parrot. However, this was not enough to prevent declines in the area, which are now thought to have been caused by feral cats after fox numbers were reduced by baiting (Burbidge et al., 2018). As a result, the parrots are now only known from Cape Arid National Park and Nuytsland Nature Reserve to the east where, in 2015, they were subject to devastating fires that burnt 90% of the known Western Ground Parrot habitat. Priority actions revolve around protection of extant populations from fire and introduced predators, working towards establishing additional populations, optimising the value of the captive program, and securing long-term support for recovery efforts (Burbidge et al. 2016), but the situation for the parrot remains perilous.

3. Past and current trends At the time of colonisation, the Western Ground Parrot was distributed in coastal areas from Cape Arid, west along the south coast and north possibly to the Dongara-Watheroo area of WA. In 1990 the population was estimated to be 378 birds but had fallen to fewer than 200 individuals by 2004 by which time they were known to exist only in the Fitzgerald River and Cape Arid National Parks and nearby parts of Nuytsland Nature Reserve. By 2015 it had disappeared from all but Cape Arid NP and Nuystland Nature Reserve of which 90% of the habitat was burnt in 2015 (Burbidge et al. 2018). Because the birds are cryptic, absolute numbers cannot be determined, but there were thought to be about 120 birds surviving in 2012 (J. Blyth in Garnett and Franklin 2014). Despite the 2015 fire, the upper limit on the number of individuals is still 150 (WA Govt. in litt. 2018).

Monitoring (existing programs): Acoustic monitoring of known populations and survey of potential and previously occupied habitat has been undertaken regularly from 2003 to 2018. Monitoring data is converted to a call activity index for the population at Cape Arid National Park and Nuytsland Nature Reserve, and the birds are searched for in Fitzgerald River National Park every few years (Burbidge et al. 2018). In addition, the efficacy of cat control has been monitored as part of adaptive management research.

2 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Population trends: Tables 1 and 2 summarise the overall trend and status of the Western Ground Parrot. The information provided in these tables is derived from the Recovery Plan (2014) and Conservation Advice (2013), with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information.

Table 1. Summary of the available information on Western Ground Parrot distribution and population size, and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter. Confidence in Population parameters Published baseline 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate estimates

WILD*

Extent of Occurrence 1400 km2 2842 km2 530 km2 High

Low 2 2 2 Area of Occupancy 100 km 68 km 116 km (2018 AOO largely burnt in 2015 fires) All presence data for All presence data for 2012 used, 2018 used, Dates of records and As per Bird Action calculated using calculated using methods used Plan geocat.kew.org geocat.kew.org (n=53) (n=279)

No. mature individuals 110 <150 <150 Medium

Any other measure of Call activity index, area occupied on monitoring grids relative abundance

No. of subpopulations 2 1 1 High

No. of locations 2 1 1 High

High; based on recent global Generation time 3.9 n/a n/a modelling by BirdLife International

CAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

No. mature individuals 6 6 4 High

No. locations 1 1 1 High *Including translocations

3 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Table 2. Estimated recent (2005-2015) and current (2015-2018) population trends for the Western Ground Parrot

Est. % of Est. % of total 2005- Confidence in 2015- Confidence in Sub- total pop’n 2015 2005-2015 2018 2015-2018 Details population pop’n (pre- trend trend trend trend (2018) 2015)

Taxon was last recorded in Fitzgerald Fitzgerald River National River National 70 High N/a N/a 0 Park in 2012. Survey effort Park – Two has been significant but Peoples Bay no birds detected.

Taxon was last recorded in Nuytsland Nuytsland Nature Reserve in 2006. Small population Nature 10 High High 20 Reserve found following 2015 fires.

Despite fire in 2015 burning 90% of known habitat in Cape Arid NP this remains the Cape Arid stronghold Intensive 20 High Medium 80 National Park management of introduced predators has been conducted around pockets of unburnt habitat and

Whole 100 High Medium 100 population

KEY: Improving Stable Deteriorating Unknown Confidence Description High Trend documented Medium Trend considered likely based on documentation

? Low Trend suspected but evidence indirect or equivocal

4. Key threats The threats listed here are derived from the Recovery Plan and Conservation Advice with some amendments from contributing experts based on new information. Note that this is not a list of all plausible threats, but a subset of the threats that are likely to have the largest impact on populations.

4 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Habitat loss and degradation Historical clearance of habitat for grazing and agriculture is considered responsible for the contraction in Western Ground Parrot distribution, but only the legacy of that loss remains as all parrots occur in Conservation Reserves (Burbidge et al. 2018).

Inappropriate fire regimes Too frequent and extensive fire may have eliminated the species from many vegetation remnants and continues to be a significant threat; e.g. habitat supporting >30% of the total population was burnt in 2004 and 90% of remaining habitat was burnt in 2015 (Burbidge et al. 2018).

Predation Predation by introduced mammalian carnivores, i.e. feral cats (Felis catus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), is also believed to be a major threat and one that is likely exacerbated by fire and could lead rapidly to extinction of the species unless baiting programs are continued or extended (Burbidge et al. 2018).

Disease Dieback associated with phytophthora (Phytophthora cinnamomi) kills many of the plants within specific vegetation communities containing ground parrot habitat. Although there is no research directly linking this plant disease with parrot abundance, the impact on the habitat is likely to vary depending on the specific location (Department of Parks and Wildlife 2014).

Climate change The subspecies ranked 16th out of 100 Australian terrestrial and freshwater birds thought most sensitive to climate change because of low genetic variability, narrow climate space and high level of habitat specialisation. Increase in temperatures associated with climate change may lead to a loss of remnant vegetation and further habitat loss (Garnett and Franklin 2014). An increase in the incidence and extent of fire as a result of climate change is also likely to impact remaining populations.

The impacts of the major threats are summarised in Table 3.

Table 3. The major threats facing the Western Ground Parrot and their associated impact scores. CURRENT THREAT IMPACT (five greatest threats) Threat Timing Extent Severity 1. Increase in fire frequency, Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 50-100% intensity and extent 2. Feral cats Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 50-100% 3. Red foxes Continuing/ongoing >90% of range 30-49% 4. Drought Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range 50-100% 5. Phytophthora Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range Negligible declines (<1%) Timing: continuing/ongoing; near future: any occurrence probable within one generation (includes former threat no longer causing impact but could readily recur); distant future: any occurrence likely to be further than one generation into the future (includes former threat no longer causing impact and unlikely to recur). Extent: <1% of range; 1-50%; 50-90%; >90%. Severity: (over three generations or 10 years, whichever is sooner) Causing no decline; Negligible declines (<1%); Not negligible but <20%; 20-29%; 30-49%; 50-100%; Causing/could cause order of magnitude fluctuations.

5 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

5. Past and current management Recent and current management actions thought to be contributing to the conservation of the Western Ground Parrot are summarised in Table 4. This information is a collation of material provided by experts. Table 4. Management actions thought to be contributing to the conservation of the Western Ground Parrot Est. % Action Location Timing Contributors and partners pop’n

Department of Biodiversity, Conservation Convene South Coast and Attractions (DBCA), Friends of the 1996- Threatened Bird Recovery Various 100 Western Ground Parrot, BirdLife WA, 2018 Team twice a year community representatives on Recovery Team, South Coast NRM

Cape Arid NP- Western Shield Fox Baiting Nuytsland NR, (including integration of 1996- DBCA, Australian Government, South Fitzgerald River NP, 100 Eradicat for control of feral 2018 Coast NRM, State NRM (WA) Two Peoples Bay- cats from 2010) Manypeaks

Trial efficacy feral cat CANP-NNR, FRNP, 2010- DBCA, South Coast NRM, Biofund, Caring 100 baiting (Eradicat) TPB-MP 2017 for Our Country

Fire management – WGP CANP-NNR, FRNP, Ongoing 100 DBCA habitat TPB-MP

Public awareness, volunteer DBCA, Friends of the Western Ground CANP-NNR 100 support and advocacy Parrot, Birdlife WA.

Expansion of ex-situ captive Perth Zoo (DBCA), Australian Perth Zoo Ongoing breeding program Government

6. Actions undertaken or supported by the Australian Government resulting from inclusion in the Threatened Species Strategy Funding was mobilised for feral cat baiting and on-ground threatened species monitoring across the south-west of Western Australia for a number of targeted species under the Threatened Species Strategy, including the Western Ground Parrot. This project was completed in June 2018. A Threatened Species Recovery Fund project is expanding Perth Zoo’s captive program through the development of eight temporary settling aviaries (used for birds brought in from the wild) and four holding aviaries (used for existing older birds). The expansion project builds on previous investment for the installation of aviary video surveillance to inform husbandry practices in the captive breeding facility.

6 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

7. Measuring progress towards conservation Table 5. Progress towards management understanding and management implementation for each of the major threats affecting the Western Ground Parrot in 2015 (i.e. timing of TSS implementation) and 2018, using the progress framework developed by Garnett et al. (2018). PROGRESS IN MANAGING THREATS (five greatest threats)

Threat Year Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat being managed 2. Work has been initiated to roll out 2. Research has provided strong direction on 2015 solutions where threat applies across the 1. Increase in fire how to manage threat taxon’s range frequency, intensity 2. Work has been initiated to roll out & extent 2. Research has provided strong direction on 2018 solutions where threat applies across the how to manage threat taxon’s range 2. Research has provided strong direction on 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 2015 how to manage threat early to demonstrate success 2. Predation by 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but Feral cats 4. Trial management under way but not yet 2018 only with continued conservation clear evidence that it can deliver objectives intervention 6. Research complete and being applied OR 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but 2015 ongoing research associated with adaptive only with continued conservation 3. Predation by Red management of threat intervention foxes 6. Research complete and being applied OR 4. Solutions are enabling achievement but 2018 ongoing research associated with adaptive only with continued conservation management of threat intervention 1. Research being undertaken or completed 2015 but limited understanding on how to manage 0. No management 4. Increasing threat frequency/severity 1. Research being undertaken or completed 2. Work has been initiated to roll out of drought 2018 but limited understanding on how to manage solutions where threat applies across the threat taxon’s range 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 2015 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success 5. Phytophthora 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 2018 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success > Green shading indicates an improvement in our understanding or management of threats between years 2015 and 2018, while red shading indicates deterioration in our understanding or management of threats.

KEY: Score Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat is being managed 0 No knowledge and no research No management Research being undertaken or completed but limited 1 Management limited to trials understanding on how to manage threat Research has provided strong direction on how to manage Work has been initiated to roll out solutions where threat 2 threat applies across the taxon’s range Solutions have been adopted but too early to demonstrate 3 Solutions being trialled but work only initiated recently success Trial management under way but not yet clear evidence that Solutions are enabling achievement but only with continued 4 it can deliver objectives conservation intervention Trial management is providing clear evidence that it can Good evidence available that solutions are enabling 5 deliver objectives achievement with little or no conservation intervention Research complete and being applied OR ongoing research 6 The threat no longer needs management associated with adaptive management of threat

7 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

8. Expert elicitation for population trends An expert elicitation process was undertaken to assess population trends for the period 2005-2015 and post-2015 under the following management scenarios. Please note that differences between Management Scenarios 2 and 3 (Fig. 1) are difficult to attribute, as it can be difficult to determine whether actions undertaken after 2015 were influenced by the Threatened Species Strategy or were independent of it (see Summary Report for details of methods). Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new actions implemented.

• All fox and cat control abandoned • Phytophthora quarantine not policed • No attempt to control fires Under this scenario the threats that unexpectedly and rapidly affected populations east of their current range will not be managed. Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy).

• Fox and cat control continued • Attempts made to prevent spread of fires • Phytophthora quarantine maintained Under this scenario fox and cat control maintains the population at relatively low levels but there was no extra response in the period 2015-2018. Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Stratgey.

• As above but with additional cat control 2015-2018 • Captive breeding eventiually successful Under this scenario intensive cat control helped maintain the population, especially around areas burnt by fires. It is also assumed that the captive breeding at Perth Zoo will eventually be successful. Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered The Western Ground Parrot is currently being managed under Scenario 3 (green line).

8 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Figure 1. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management scenarios described above. Data derived from 8 expert assessments of Western Ground Parrot expected response to management, using four-step elicitation and the IDEA protocol (Hemming et al. 2017), where experts are asked to provide best estimates, lowest and highest plausible estimates, and an associated level of confidence. The dashed line represents the baseline value (i.e. as at 2015, standardised to 100). Values above this line indicate a relative increase in population size, while values below this line indicate a relative decrease in population size. Shading indicates confidence bounds (i.e. the lowest and highest plausible estimates).

Population size projections based on expert elicitation are extended here to 2025, 2035 and 2045 (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 years after the establishment of the Threatened Species Strategy) on the grounds that some priority conservation management actions may take many years to achieve substantial conservation outcomes. However, we note also that there will be greater uncertainty around estimates of population size into the more distant future because, for example, novel threats may affect the species, managers may develop new and more efficient conservation options, and the impacts of climate change may be challenging to predict.

9 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Improved trajectory (Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 target): The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against achieving the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, i.e. a demonstrated improved trajectory for at least half of the priority species (10 birds and 10 mammals). To assess this, we first use the expert-derived trend between 2005-15 (i.e. 10 years prior to implementation of the TSS) as a baseline for assessing whether there has been an improvement in trajectory in the time since implementation of the TSS (i.e. 2015-18). Table 6 below summarises this information, where negative values indicate a declining population, and positive values indicate an increasing population. We used Wilcoxon match-paired tests to compare trajectories for these two periods; a significant result (probability <0.05) indicates that there was a high concordance amongst experts that their trajectory estimates for 2005-15 were different to their estimates for 2015-18.

Table 6. A comparison of the relative annual percentage population change for the periods 2005-2015 and 2015-2018.

Post-TSS Year 3 Pre-TSS trend Significant concordance among trend target (2005-2015) elicitors? (2015-2018) met? Annual Although the trajectory has improved percentage since 2015, there was insufficient -8.81 -1.75 population  concordance among elicitors to reach change significance.

Additional actions that could improve trajectory The potential impact of carrying out specific additional conservation measures on the population trajectory of the Western Ground Parrot was also evaluated through expert elicitation. Current management includes fox and cat control; attempts made to prevent spread of fires; Phytophthora quarantine maintained; and attempted captive breeding. Additional actions that could further improve the population trajectory include:

• Major investment in fire control • Ongoing effective cat and fox control • Ongoing phytophthora quarantine • Sucessful captive breeding • Reintroduction to previously occupied areas With these actions, captive breeding will be undertaken at a scale that allows substantial numbers of parrots to be reintroduced to the west of their current range in places they occupied until the end of the 20th century.

10 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

9. Immediate priorities from 2019 The priorities listed here are derived from Department of Parks and Wildlife (2014), with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information. Identification of these priorities in this document is for information and is non-statutory. For statutory conservation planning documents, such as Recovery Plans or Conservation Advices, please see Section 11. Data collection:

• Continue to develop and refine methods for detecting and monitoring WGP, and continue to undertake survey for and monitoring of the species • Identify and evaluate potential new sites Management actions:

• Protect habitat critical for the survival of WGP • Integrate predator control with enhanced predator control response post-bushfire • Appoint/retain multiple suitably skilled staff to develop the knowledge base on WGP biology/ecology • Develop and implement a WGP translocation strategy • Develop and implement a communication and engagement strategy, and a robust, diverse funding model • Increase community and NGO support base • Elevate prospects of the WGP project by housing it within a larger initiative that recognises and promotes this area as a National Biodiversity Hotspot • Optimise the value of the captive program to WGP recovery and conservation

10. Contributors Sarah Comer, Allan Burbidge, Abby Thomas, Stephen Garnett, John Woinarski, Sarah Legge, Hayley Geyle, Guy Dutson, Peter Menkhorst, Nicholas MacGregor, Allan Burbidge, Richard Loyn.

11. Legislative documents SPRAT profile: http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi- bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=84650 Threatened Species Scientific Committee (TSSC) (2013). Commonwealth Listing Advice on Pezoporus wallicus flaviventris (Western Ground Parrot). Canberra: Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/84650-listing-advice.pdf. In effect under the EPBC Act from 14-May-2013. Approved Conservation Advice for Pezoporus wallicus flaviventris (Western Ground Parrot). Canberra: Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/84650-conservation- advice.pdf. In effect under the EPBC Act from 14-May-2013.

11 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Department of Parks and Wildlife (2014). South Coast Threatened Birds Recovery Plan. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, Western Australia. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/south-coast-threatened- birds. In effect under the EPBC Act from 21-Oct-2014 as Pezoporus flaviventris.

12. References Burbidge AH, Comer S, Lees C, Page M, Stanley F (Eds) (2016) ‘Creating a Future for the Western Ground Parrot: Workshop Report’. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, Western Australia Burbidge AH, Comer S, Danks, A. 2018. Collaborative commitment to a shared vision: recovery efforts for noisy scrub-birds and Western Ground Parrots. In Recovering Australian Threatened Species: A Book of Hope. Pp. 95-104. (Eds. Garnett, S.T., Latch, P., Lindenmayer, D.B. and Woinarski, J.C.Z.). CSIRO, Melbourne. Department of Parks and Wildlife (2014). South Coast Threatened Birds Recovery Plan. Western Australian Wildlife Management Program No. 44. Dept Parks and Wildlife, Perth, Western Australia. Garnett, S.T. and Franklin, D.C. (eds.) 2014. Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Australian Birds. CSIRO, Melbourne. Garnett, S.T., Butchart, S.H.M., Baker, G.B., Bayraktarov, E., Buchanan, K.L., Burbidge, A.A., Chauvenet, A.L.M., Christidis, L., Ehmke, G., Grace, M., Hoccom, D.G., Legge, S.M., Leiper, I., Lindenmayer, D.B., Loyn, R.H., Maron, M., McDonald, P., Menkhorst, P., Possingham, H.P., Radford, J., Reside, A.E., Watson, D.M., Watson, J.E.M., Wintle, B., Woinarski, J.C.Z., and Geyle, H.M. (2018) Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian Birds. Conservation Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13220. Hemming, V., Burgman, M.A., Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., and Wintle B.C. (2017) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 169- 180. Molloy, S.W., Burbidge, A.H., Comer, S. and Davis, A.A. (in press). Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the Western Ground Parrot Pezoporus flaviventris. Oryx.

13. Citation Please cite this document as:

National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Research Hub (2019) Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Western Ground Parrot. Australian Government, Canberra. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-birds-by- 2020/western-ground-parrot

12 Information current to December 2018