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Fundação Getulio Vargas Escola De Administração De Empresas De São Paulo FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS ESCOLA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS DE SÃO PAULO SALOME MARIE ALICE LEMA Restrictive measures on capital inflow in Brazil in the OTC derivative market: Impact on non-financial firms SÃO PAULO 2016 FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS ESCOLA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS DE SÃO PAULO SALOME MARIE ALICE LEMA Restrictive measures on capital inflow in Brazil in the OTC derivative market: Impact on non-financial firms Thesis presented to Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo of Fundação Getulio Vargas, as a requirement to obtain the title of Master in International Management (MPGI). Knowledge Field: Financial analysis Adviser: Prof. Dr. Rafael F. Schiozer SÃO PAULO 2016 LEMA, SALOME MARIE ALICE Restrictive measures on capital inflow in Brazil in the OTC derivative market: Impact on non-financial firms / SALOME MARIE ALICE LEMA – 2016. 48p Orientador: Schiozer, Rafael. Tese (mestrado) - Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo. 1. Regulação de derivativos cambiais. 2. Controle de capitais. 3. Mercado de balcão. 4. Exposição cambial. 5. FX beta Derivativos (Finanças). I. Schiozer, Rafael Felipe II. Dissertação (MPGI) - Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo. III. Restrictive measures on capital inflow in Brazil in the OTC derivative market: Impact on non-financial firms CDU 336.763(81) SALOME MARIE ALICE LEMA Restrictive measures on capital inflow in Brazil in the OTC derivative market: Impact on non-financial firms Thesis presented to Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo of Fundação Getulio Vargas, as a requirement to obtain the title of Master in International Management (MPGI). Knowledge Field: Financial analysis Approval Date ____/____/_____ Committee members: _______________________________ Prof. Dr. Rafael F. Schiozer (advisor) FGV/EAESP _______________________________ Prof. Dr. Hsia Hua Sheng FGV/EAESP _______________________________ Prof. Dr. Joelson Sampaio FGV/EESP ABSTRACT In August 2011, the Brazilian government taxed short positions in the foreign exchange (FX) derivative market in order to weaken the surge of post-crisis capital inflow, discourage carry trade strategies on the Real and avoid further local currency appreciation. Nevertheless, non- financial firms are also end-users of derivatives and might have suffered in case financial institutions transfer the regulatory cost to their clients in the real economy. To the extent that this tax increases the cost of hedging, firms may decide to hedge less, causing an increase in their exposure to currency risk. This paper aims at analysing if this regulatory change had an impact on Brazilian non-financial firms FX exposure, measured by the sensitivity of stock prices to currency fluctuation (FX-Beta). Therefore, it seeks to compare the FX beta of Brazilian non-financial listed firms before and after the implementation of the measure, to assess their degree of exposure to currency risk. In accordance with an increasing cost of hedging for those companies, results show that the beta difference also reached a riskier level. KEY WORDS: Currency derivative regulation, Capital control, OTC markets, FX exposure, FX beta RESUMO Em agosto de 2011, o governo brasileiro passou a tributar posições vendidas no mercado de derivativos cambiais para diminuir o influxo de capital estrangeiro no pós-crise, desencorajar operações de carry trade e evitar que o real continuasse a se valorizar frente ao dólar. No entanto, empresas não financeiras também são usuárias de derivativos, e podem ter tido seus custos de proteção cambial aumentados, caso as instituições financeiras tenham transferido esse custo adicional para seus clientes na economia real. Na medida em que o tributo aumenta o custo de fazer proteção cambial com derivativos, as empresas podem ter decidido proteger uma parcela menor de sua exposição, causando um aumento em sua exposição cambial. Essa dissertação analisa se essa mudança regulatória teve um impacto na exposição cambial das empresas não financeiras, medida pela sensibilidade do preço das ações às variações cambiais (FX-Beta). Assim, o estudo compara os FX-Betas das empresas brasileiras antes e depois da implementação do tributo, para medir o grau de mudança em suas exposições cambiais. Em linha com o aumento no custo do hedge para essas empresas, os resultados mostram alguma evidência de que algumas empresas se tornaram mais expostas ao câmbio. PALAVRAS CHAVES: Regulação de derivativos cambiais, controle de capitais, mercado de balcão, exposição cambial, FX beta SUMMARY Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 8 2 – Theoretical Background ........................................................................................................ 13 2.1 The context of the subprime crisis and role of over-the-counter derivatives ........................ 13 2.1.1 The implementation of regulatory measures in Brazil ..................................................................... 16 2.1.2 Macroprudential measure and its impact on the real sector ........................................................... 17 2.2 - The context of the 2011 OTC Regulation in Brazil ................................................................... 19 2.2.1 The grounds of capital control preceding the subprime crisis in Brazil ..................................... 19 2.2.2 Capital control and the evolution of the exchange rate .................................................................... 20 2.2.3 The IOF tax implementation ..................................................................................................................... 21 2.2.4 The consequences of the IOF tax ............................................................................................................ 23 3 – Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 25 3.1 - How to measure the impact of FX fluctuation on the stocks of non-financial companies 26 3.1.1 The concept of the beta coefficient in the Capital Asset Pricing Model .................................... 26 3.1.2 The factor model ........................................................................................................................................... 26 3.1.3 The factor choice .......................................................................................................................................... 27 4- Description of the data, computation of Betas and statistical results ............................. 30 4.1- Description of the data ..................................................................................................................... 30 4.2- Results of linear regressions, computation of ∆FX and z-tests .................................................. 30 4.3 Currency exposure before and after the IOF implementation ................................................. 31 4.4 Additional check – excluding firms with little FX exposure ..................................................... 33 4.5 Additional check – proportion of firms with FX exposure ........................................................ 35 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Work Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 39 References ........................................................................................................................................ 40 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................... 43 8 Introduction The subprime crisis of 2007- 2008 shed light on the risks of the opacity of the over-the- counter (OTC) derivatives markets. Many studies (e.g., Acharya et al., 2009) point to the role of OTC derivatives on the buildup of the US subprime crisis and its transmission to many developed economies. Developing countries, such as Brazil, have not been spared from the expansion of the derivative market and its counterparty risks during the series of default triggered during the 2007-2008 period. Foreign exchange (FX) derivatives allowed investors to conduct carry trade strategies in the Brazilian markets, contributing to the steady appreciation of the Brazilian Real from early 2006 until Lehman Brothers collapse in September of 2008 (see Figure 1). However, the global turmoil caused by Lehman´s bankruptcy triggered a massive outflow of investments from Brazil, as foreign investors fled to safer markets. This movement caused a depreciation of more than 30% of the Brazilian Real in the three weeks that followed Lehman’s demise. Brazilian end-users of derivatives, which were betting on further depreciation of the Brazilian Real by mid-2008, suffered huge financial losses after speculating on the derivative market (Lopes, Schiozer and Sheng, 2013). The derivative market enabled exporting Brazilian firms, such as Sadia, to assume very large short positions in foreign currency derivatives that far exceeded the amount that would offset their operational exposure. Figure 1 USD-BRL exchange rate from January 2006 to December 2013 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
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