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HSBC Hong Kong RESTRICTED HSBC Hong Kong Presentation by Mark McCombe, CEO Hong Kong March 2011 www.hsbc.com Forward-looking statements •This presentation and subsequent discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group. These forward-looking statements represent the Group’s expectations or beliefs concerning future events and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Additional detailed information concerning important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is available in our Annual Report and Accounts 2010. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. •This presentation contains non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial information to the most directly comparable measures under GAAP are provided in the ‘Reconciliation of reported and underlying profit before tax’ supplement available at www.hsbc.com. 2 2010 highlights Improved financial performance All regions and customer groups profitable Strong capital generation enabled an increased dividend HSBC well placed for evolving regulatory environment 3 2010 financial highlights Better / 2009 2010 (worse) Reported PBT 7.1 19.0 +169% (US$bn) Continued recovery in underlying profits Underlying PBT1 13.5 18.4 +36% (US$bn) Significantly improved EPS (US$) 0.34 0.73 +115% credit quality ROE (%) 5.1 9.5 +440bps Strengthened capital position Core tier 1 ratio2 9.4 10.5 +110bps (%) Increased dividend Dividends3 (US$) 0.34 0.36 6% Notes: (1) Underlying results eliminate the effects of foreign currency translation differences, acquisitions and disposal of businesses and changes in fair value (FV) due to movements in credit spread on long-term debt issued and designated at FV 4 (2) As at 31 December (3) Declared on ordinary shares in respect of 2009 and 2010 Business performance in 2010 Performance review Challenges and opportunities1 2010 KPIs2 Return on total Shareholders’ 9.5% 12% - 15% equity Cost efficiency ratio 55.2% 48% - 52% Advances-to-deposits ratio 78.1% <90% Notes: (1) Figures on a reported basis (2) Key Performance Indicators 6 Hong Kong Strong business growth offset by impact of low interest rates Profit before tax, underlying US$bn +11% PBT increased 11% to US$5.6bn 5.6 5.0 Income growth from higher investment sales in PFS and trade related business in CMB offset by deposit spread 2009 2010 compression LICs declined substantially across all Better / customer groups to low levels 2009 2010 US$bn (worse) Revenue 9.5 10.1 +7% Costs increased due to recruitment and LICs 0.5 0.1 +77% general wage increases Cost efficiency ratio (%) 41.7 44.0 (230)bps Loans and advances to customers 99.3 140.7 +42% Strong customer loan growth from recovery in trade flows and residential Customer accounts 275.0 297.5 +8% mortgages 7 Economic Outlook Rebalancing the world economy1 Year 2010 Year 2050 Emerging Emerging 27% 46% 54% 73% Developed Developed Source: HSBC Global Research “The World in 2050” Source: HSBC Global Research “The World in 2050” Note: 8 (1) World concentration of GDP HSBC well placed for evolving regulatory environment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Government Further liquidity Initial Basel rules on Translation of injections of injections regulatory capital, liquidity Basel rules to liquidity reforms to and funding CRD4 Creation of trading books Initial interest Bail-out Dodd-Frank Observation rate cuts schemes Focus on Act in US period for liquidity (TARP, APS) remuneration framework Independent Interest rates Interest rates Banking FSB proposals cut further cut to near Commission on SIFIs zero in UK Impetus from Implementation G20 Economic Recovery & of Dodd-Frank stimulus Resolution Development ICB conclusions packages Plans of local Development of regulatory EU Crisis responses Management Frameworks 9 RESTRICTED HSBC Hong Kong RMB Internationalisation www.hsbc.com RMB to be the third largest international currency Rise of Greater China Significant Economic Benefits for Hong Kong People Trade China has over 9m mass affluent, growing at 13% China is the largest exporting country 4 CAGR. 825k individuals of wealth over RMB10m – USD1.5trn total exports in 20103 4 Spending power spilled over to HK – Will surge to around USD2.4trn in 2020 – 10.5m Mainland tourists to HK in 1H 20106 Robust HK/China trade – accounted for 30% of luxury retail sales1 – 53% exports/44% imports of HK to/from China5 China GDP USD5.7trn GDP in 2010, 2nd largest in the world Capital Currency China engages in active foreign asset acquisition Targeting full convertibility and continued domestic infrastructure spending Reserve currency? Strong capital flow between China and HK RMB internationalisation – 45% of overseas projects in China is HK related2 – 547 Mainland companies listed in HK7 1. Business Week. Dated April 2010. 6. Tourism Commission, Hong Kong SAR 2. World Trade Organization 7. China Daily. As of 31 July 2010. 3. Ministry of Commerce, PRC 12 4. HSBC estimates 5. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR China is now the 2nd largest economy and largest exporting country GDP 2010 (est) Total Exports 2010 (est) USD trn USD trn 16.0 1.6 1.5 14.6 14.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 12.0 1.2 10.0 1.0 8.0 0.8 0.7 5.7 6.0 5.4 0.6 4.0 3.3 0.4 2.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 US China Japan Germany France China Germany US Japan Source: International Monetary Fund CIA – The World Factbook 13 The potential and the need for a third IFC in Asia – after New York and London Share of Global GDP Share of World Trade Other (10%) Other (15%) Asia (25%) Asia (27%) Americas (20%) Americas (30%) Europe (30%) Europe (43%) Source: IMF, OECD. 2009 14 RMB could become the 3rd highest turnover currency globally if RMB is fully convertible Daily Avg Turnover Daily Avg Turnover USD bn USD bn 3,500 3,379.9 3,500 3,023.1 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,556.6 1,500 1,500 1,289.0 1,000 1,000 891.8 756.4 578.0 513.5 500 500 424.4 35.8 0 0 USD EUR RMB GBP YEN USD EUR RMB GBP YEN 2010 BIS Data 2010 BIS Data (if RMB fully convertible) Note: Estimate of RMB daily average FX turnover is based on a turnover-to-trade ratio of 0.3, which is lower than 0.32 for EUR, 0.4 for YEN and 0.46 for GBP. The rise in use of RMB will offset the use of USD, EUR, YEN, and GBP at a share of 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% Source: HSBC estimate 15 Stages of development of Hong Kong’s RMB business gradual opening of the capital account RMB full current account convertibility Dec 1996 Existing restrictions on capital account Feb 2004 RMB Personal Business July 2009 RMB Trade Settlement July 2010 RMB Investment and Insurance 2011 RMB Overseas Direct Investment ?? RMB IPO ?? RMB Foreign Direct Investment, RMB Mini-QFII, …. RMB fully convertible < 2020 RMB as Reserve Currency for overseas countries 16 Hong Kong – The RMB Offshore centre RMB Deposits RMB315bn 1 RMB Trade Settlements RMB371bn 2 RMB Accounts 1.9m 1 CNH 5 Daily Turnover USD400~500m 3 Offshore RMB bonds RMB107.5bn 4 RMB Deposits in HK RMB Trade Settlements in HK RMB bn RMB bn RMB 120 RMB 350 315bn 100.9bn 300 100 250 80 200 60 RMB 150 103.7bn RMB RMB 40 RMB 100 55.9bn 64bn 10bn 20 RMB 50 RMB 0.04bn 1.2bn 0 0 Jul Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Jan Jun Jun Jan Nov Dec Feb Mar Nov Dec Nov Dec Feb Mar Nov Dec Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep May May 2009 2010 2009 2010 1. Source: HKMA 2. Up to Dec 2010 / Source: HKMA / Local news 3. Source: HSBC Global Research 4. Up to Feb 2011 / Source: HSBC / Bloomberg 17 5. CNH – RMB circulated in the offshore market Strategic Considerations What is the Market Potential? USD2trn trade settled in RMB by 2015 37% of Hong Kong SMEs have settled cross-border trade in RMB1 Expected to increase to 50% in next 12 months1 More than USD2trn or half of China’s total trade flows with emerging markets will be settled in RMB by 2013 to 20152 RMB to become a fully liberalised currency by 20202 RMB2.2trn trade settled in RMB, roughly the same size as total trade in 2010 2010 l 2011 l 2015 l 2020 l 1. HSBC Trade Confidence Index 2. HSBC in-house estimates 19 Is there enough Offshore RMB Liquidity? RMB deposit can reach RMB1.2bn by 2011 Forecast of RMB Deposits in Hong Kong Base case: RMB deposit will grow to RMB bn % of HK RMB780bn by 2011, and RMB1.2trn Total deposits Strong Case by 2012 2,121 35% Potentially 13%~22% of HK’s total 2,000 deposit 1 30% Growth comes from sustained RMB 1,500 Base Case 25% 1,188 trade settlement and RMB outward 1,272 direct investment 22.2% 20% 1,000 779 15% 13.4% Weak Case 10% 500 315 438 375 5% 64 0 0% Jan '10 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 20 Source: HSBC Global Research • Based on Dec 2010 HK total deposit balance Is RMB just a substitution business? HK as the RMB Offshore Centre generates incremental growth Substitution vs Incremental Sustain and gain market share Growth of mainland China – Most products today are just a replica of – More customer growth (personal, the existing HKD/USD products.
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