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The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Income Distribution in Tanzania: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Income Distribution in Tanzania: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis working paper 2019-07 The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Income Distribution in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Asiya I. Maskaeva Joel J. Mmasa Nicodemas C. Lema Msafiri E. Mgeni April 2019 The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Income Distribution in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Abstract The Tanzanian government has established a goal to transform the country into a middle-income and semi-industrialized state by 2025. To promote this transformation, the government exempted the Value Added Tax on capital commodities in FY 2017-2018 as a way to promote utilization of these commodities by manufacturing industries and generate growth, employment, and increased incomes. This study analyzes the impact of a reduction in Value Added Tax on capital commodities (electricity, vehicles, machinery, and equipment) under two different closure rules: (1) fixed governmental expenditures and flexible governmental savings (2) flexible governmental expenditures and fixed governmental savings. Under the first regime, government savings declined and industries that depended heavily on government investments suffered. In the second, output increased for all industrial sectors, leading to a decrease in average unemployment. Real consumption increased for all but the richest household categories. JEL: C68, E62, H50, E64 Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Government Budget, Household Income, CGE Modelling, Social Accounting Matrix Authors Dr. Asiya I. Maskaeva Dr. Joel J. Mmasa Senior Lecturer, University of Dodoma Lecturer, University of Dodoma Dodoma, Tanzania Dodoma, Tanzania [email protected] [email protected] Nicodemas C. Lema Msafiri E. Mgeni PhD candidate, University of Dar-es-Salaam, Master’s candidate, East Africa Statistical Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania Training Centre, [email protected] Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania [email protected] Acknowledgements This research work was carried out with financial and scientific support from the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) (www.pep-net.org) and with funding from the Department for International Development (DFID) of the United Kingdom (or UK Aid) and the Government of Canada through the International Development Research Center (IDRC). Authors are grateful to Dr. Martin Henseler and Prof. Helene Maisonnave for technical support and for their valuable comments and suggestions. Table of contents I. Introduction p.1 1.1. Taxes and Government Expenditure: Levels and Compositions 1.2. Poverty Profile and Income Inequality II. Literature Review p.7 III. Methodology and Data p.9 3.1. The PEP 1-1 Standard Model 3.2. Modeling the Labour Market 3.3. The Model Data Base 3.4. Production Structure by Sector 3.5. Factors of Production 3.6. Agents 3.7. Closure rules and Simulation Scenarios IV. Simulation Results p.16 4.1. Macroeconomic effects 4.2. Impact on Prices and Trade 4.3. Effects on Production 4.4. Effects on the Factor Market 4.5. Effect on Household Income 4.6. Effect on Household Consumption Spending V. Conclusion and policy implications p.21 References p.24 Appendices p.27 List of tables Table 1: Tax Structure in Tanzania by Broad Categories, Selected Years, in Percent ............................ 4 Table 2: Government Spending by Sector (Percent of Total Government Spending) .......................... 5 Table 3: Structure of Government Revenue, in Percent .......................................................................... 13 Table 4: Structure of Indirect Taxes, in Percent .......................................................................................... 13 Table 5: Structure of Government Spending on Each Commodity, in Percent .................................... 14 Table 6: Income Accruing to the ROW ...................................................................................................... 14 Table 7: Impact on Macroeconomic Variables, Percentage Changes ................................................ 16 Table 8: Unemployment Rate for Different Labour Categories (Simulations 1 and 2) .......................... 20 List of figures Figure 1: Breakdown of Fiscal Indicators in Tanzania, in Percent .............................................................. 3 Figure 2: Breakdown of Tanzanian Government Spending, Percent Change from Baseline FY 2013- 2014 .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 3: Disposable-income-share distribution across rural and urban household groups ................ 12 Figure 4: Total Investment and the Final Demand for Commodities ...................................................... 18 I. Introduction Within recent decades, government fiscal reforms in spending and taxation aimed at stabilizing and sustaining economic growth and reducing poverty, especially in developing countries, have attracted heightened attention (IMF, 2015; UNCTAD/TDR, 2012). Along these lines, the government of Tanzania began serious efforts to reform fiscal policy and intervenes in the economy more than twenty years ago, and these efforts continue. The result of Tanzanian reforms, however (e.g., macroeconomic stability, increased revenue, and a rising revenue share), have begun to appear only in the last decade (Bevan, 2010). The fiscal reforms implemented since independence can be grouped into chronological periods: • 1961 to 1966 (Post-Independence): Characterized by market economy with economic policies that favored private-sector development; • 1967 to 1985 (Socialism/Nationalization): Focus changed from market-led economy to state-led economy; • 1985 to 2005: Country adopted a number of economic reforms; • 2005 to present: Efforts to accelerate economic growth and reduce poverty put into place. Over the years, these reforms contributed to macroeconomic stability, steady economic growth, and increased government revenues (KPMG, 2017), among other effects. In 2016, the World Bank reported an average growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 7% over the preceding decade; a slight decline to 6.6% occurred in 2016. This rate of growth surpasses the rate in Sub- Saharan Africa (4.4%), making Tanzania one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. These growth rates have not translated into substantial improvements in living standards for a large majority of the population, however. Although the poverty rate declined from 28.2% in 2012 to 26.9% in 2016 (World Bank, 2016), the absolute number of poor remains high because the population has grown substantially. Poverty reduction, productivity increase, and the creation of decent jobs, therefore, are goals that remain to be achieved. The economic growth that has taken place falls below the targets established in the Tanzania Development Vision (TDV) 2025 plan, whose goal was a high, good-quality standard of living for all. Nor is Tanzania’s economic growth in line with the second National Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP II) 2016-2017-2020/21, which was intended to foster industrialization and human 1 development (KPMG, 2017). Because TDV and FYDP objectives have not been reached, further policy reforms and interventions are required to improve the country’s economic situation. Over the last six decades, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used to evaluate fiscal reforms with a focus on tax policy in a range of countries (see Kehoe et al., 1988, e.g.). A CGE approach for tax analysis was first applied by Harberger (1962) and was subsequently used widely by Shoven and Whalley (1972) and by Ballard et al. (1985a). A number of studies (e.g., Shoven & Whalley, 1984; Ballard, Shoven & Whalley, 1985b; and Gottfried & Wiegard, 1991) applied CGE models specifically to the welfare effects of VAT systems in developed countries. We followed this practice in our investigation of the economic impact and pro-poor implications of indirect tax reform through the imposition of a Value Added Tax (VAT) in Tanzania. Although Levin (2001, 2005) successfully applied CGE models to Tanzania to evaluate the effects of indirect taxes on household income, and Kaliba (2006) used them to analyze the impact of indirect taxes on commodity markets, our CGE model is based upon updated data that reflect current economic realities in Tanzania. Specifically, our CGE model simulates the effects of a transition to a VAT regime on the whole economy, and on such significant economic variables as prices, production, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution. Policy makers can use these findings to make informed decisions regarding fiscal policy. 1.1. Taxes and Government Expenditure: Levels and Compositions As noted above, various fiscal reforms have been implemented in Tanzania in recent decades, resulting in improved domestic revenue collection and the achievement of the government’s economic policy objectives (Osoro, 1994; IMF, 2015 a,b). Figure 1 shows the fiscal indicators of the national budget for the last four years. 2 Figure 1: Breakdown of Fiscal Indicators in Tanzania, in Percent Sources: Computed by authors from data on taxes and GDP obtained from IMF country reports: N15/175 - 2015, N16/253 - 2016, N17/180-2018 and NBS (2017): Tanzania Tax Statistics Report 2015/16. As the figure indicates, the ratio of both tax revenue and total revenue to nominal GDP increased in Tanzania, particularly in FY 2016-2017. These ratios have, however, varied in recent years: Between fiscal years 2013 and 2017, the tax-to-GDP ratio was relatively low (on average, 12.5%)
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