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Remote-Work Effect Highest Levels Since 2014, Meaning Farmers U.S TUESDAY MARCH 2, 2021 VOL. 186 No. 40 AMERICANBANKER.COM Follow us on Twitter @AmerBanker Ag lenders more upbeat 5 as crop prices soar Soybean, corn and wheat are trading at their Remote-work effect highest levels since 2014, meaning farmers U.S. companies shed more than 80 million square feet of are more likely to catch up on loan payments and pursue expansions that require them to office space in 2020 take out more loans. Page 6 Net absorption/loss of office space, in square feet Wells Fargo promotes veteran See story on page 2 6 executive to new ESG post Geneviève Piché, who has worked in investment banking at the company for 20 80M years, will be in charge of helping corporate 60M 67.3M clients make environmentally and socially 40M 53.5M 54.6M responsible investments. Page 7 41.8M 40.0M 38.1M 20M 35.7M 25.0M 28.2M 0 13.5M Citi’s Corbat has parting words: ‘Banking is quickly changing’ -20M 7 Michael Corbat’s departure comes as -40M Citigroup is facing fresh scrutiny from -60M regulators about its underlying technology -80M -84.0M and internal controls, work that will continue -100M on incoming CEO Jane Fraser’s 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 watch. Page 7 Source: JLL Bank of America will 8 book $400M expense for divisive bonus changes Bank of America will book a $400 million dailybriefing CFPB pick’s past expense in the first quarter to account for a 3 statements set stage for change in bonus policies that sparked anger testy confirmation hearing among high earners. Page 8 CRE lenders’ growing Rohit Chopra, President Biden’s nominee 1 fear: Office workers to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Merrill Lynch ramps up won’t come back Bureau, has not minced words in calling 9 wealth unit as rich Already contending with stressed retail, hotel out private companies for wrongdoing. He clients flock to Florida and restaurant loans, bankers are beginning could get a grilling from Banking Committee Several prominent Wall Street companies to view office lending — historically a safe Republicans and some opposition on the are considering moving some business to bet — as increasingly risky as companies of Senate floor. Page 4 Florida, or are relocating outright. Page 8 all types rethink their space needs. (See chart above.) Page 2 Heat’s on lenders to Streamline bank rules for 4 reduce climate risk. 10 spotting sanctions violators Citigroup restates earnings Big question is how. Detecting business dealings with banned 2 after writing down Revlon loan Going green takes time, so lenders need to parties means screening a maze of Citigroup restated fourth-quarter results start revamping entire business relationships transactions, and Treasury’s Office of after writing down a portion of a loan to now, according to one sustainability-focused Foreign Assets Control supports calls for the Revlon it now owns after losing a court nonprofit. That process could include industry to take a risk-based approach. But battle. Page 3 setting environmental goals for fossil-fuels regulators effectively require banks to track companies and other customers that are everything, which is unproductive, Greg conditions for continuing to finance Baer writes in BankThink. Page 9 them. Page 5 TUESDAY MARCH 2, 2021 AMERICANBANKER.COM PAGE 2 edging up, new loans are dwindling and is expected to increase commercial real estate COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE borrowing costs are creeping higher, all signs lending in 2021, executives said on a Jan. 21 LENDING that the business is growing riskier. call with analysts, but the focus will likely be on Now, many banks are planning to pull loans for multifamily and industrial projects. back from financing office projects this year, For now, the $33.4 billion-asset company CRE lenders’ executives said, and opinions vary on when, or is pausing on office, Paul Schmidt, head of even if, the office market will bounce back. commercial real estate at Associated Bank, growing “Everybody thought that office, even though said in a recent interview. people are clearing out and working from “It’s going to shift,” Schmidt said. “New home, that the leases are still in place and that office development is certainly going to slow.” fear: Office market would hold up,” said Matt Anderson, Roughly 20% of Associated’s commercial a managing director at the data analytics firm real estate lending business is tied to office workers won’t Trepp. “Now, there have been some cracks in space each year, but in 2020 that dropped that theory.” to 15% and this year it is likely to fall to 10%, Schmidt said. come back ‘Work-from-home is here to stay’ To be sure, the dropoff in CRE lending Slightly more than 84 million square feet has been dramatic across all sectors. Banks By Jon Prior of office space went from occupied to empty originated less than $4.7 billion of total February 28, 2021 in 2020, according to data from the real estate commercial real estate loans during the fourth Dan McNamara has been to his office at a firm Jones Lang LaSalle. That drop is especially quarter, down 22% from the third quarter and hedge fund in New York only a handful of times stark when compared with the 67.3 million half the level seen a year earlier, according to since the coronavirus pandemic was declared square feet of increased occupancy in office Trepp. in March 2020. space the year before. And it’s the first time Office lending last year, in particular, ran On the days he did go into the office, he in more than a decade that the company’s at about 21% of the average production pace would look around at all the empty floors in researchers recorded occupancy losses at all. in 2019, Trepp data showed. By contrast, buildings across Manhattan and couldn’t help About half of the space that went unoccupied multifamily originations were at 70% of 2019 but wonder if the pandemic had fundamentally was abandoned in the fourth quarter alone, the levels and industrial loans were at 66%. changed companies’ need for office space. data shows. “Out of all the commercial real estate It didn’t take him long to conclude that it Delinquencies on office debt have so far sectors, the future of office is the most had. been kept in check as companies have largely difficult to discern,” said Cal Evans, who does A principal at MP Securitized Credit been paying their leases, even on space that credit intelligence for Synovus Financial in Partners who specializes in trading commercial now sits empty. The delinquency rate on Columbus, Ga. “But the reality is work-from- mortgage-backed securities, McNamara last office loans on bank balance sheets did tick home is here to stay.” year helped create an investment vehicle to up, however, to 0.44% in the third quarter last Evans had been scheduled to speak at a make short bets on bonds backed by CRE year from 0.27% three months prior and about conference Synovus was hosting in Miami on loans, including office loans. The thinking quadruple the rate one year before, according March 11 of last year. The company had been was that office workers would not be rushing to Trepp data. monitoring the increasingly troubling spread back into high-rises even after the virus fades, Associated Banc-Corp in Green Bay, Wis., of COVID-19 and decided to call off the event. resulting in climbing office vacancies and falling property values. The fund has already generated a 120% return to investors. Established 1836 One State Street Plaza, 27th floor, New York, NY 10004 “It’s not going to be a complete debacle Phone 212-803-8200 AmericanBanker.com that regional malls are, but there will be some problems,” said McNamara, whose firm first Editor in Chief Alan Kline 571.403.3846 Copy Editor Neil Cassidy 212.803.8440 gained notoriety shorting securities tied to mall Managing Editor Dean Anason 770.621.9935 loans. The office market has traditionally been Reporters/Producers one of the safest bets in real estate finance, but Executive Editor Bonnie McGeer 212.803.8430 Laura Alix 860.836.5431, Kate Berry 562.434.5432 now lenders and investors “have to be very Washington Bureau Chief Joe Adler 571.403.3832 careful,” he said. Executive Editor, Technology Miriam Cross 571.403.3834 The commercial real estate industry and Penny Crosman 212.803.8673 Jim Dobbs 605.310.7780 the banks that support it have grappled with BankThink Editor Rachel Witkowski 571.403.3857 the demise of brick-and-mortar retail spots John Heltman 571.403.3847, Allissa Kline 716.243.2679 Community Banking Editor Paul Davis 336.852.9496 and stockpiled reserves for losses from hotels Hannah Lang 571.403.3855 quieted by the virus. But at the end of last Contributing Editor Daniel Wolfe 212.803.8397 John Reosti 571.403.3864, Gary Siegel 212.803.1560 year, problems started showing up in the Digital Managing Editor office sector. More square footage is going Christopher Wood 212.803.8437 Kevin Wack 626.486.2341 unoccupied, delinquencies have started For up to date and complete coverage go to AmericanBanker.com TUESDAY MARCH 2, 2021 AMERICANBANKER.COM PAGE 3 Evans could see instantly the dollars lost across Fitch said in its report. He said some CEOs have told him they’re commercial real estate, hotels, convention Stacey Berger, an executive vice president of eager to bring workers back into the office, centers and offices. the special servicing company Midland Loan believing it will give them a competitive “Right then I knew we were going home and Services, said that in the office sector, loans tied advantage over rivals keeping employees at this was going to be significant,” he said.
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