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former Australian Minister for Science. Email: [email protected] Email: Science. for Minister Australian former

Vice Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Melbourne; Melbourne; of University the at Fellow Chancellor’s Vice The Hon BARRY O JONES AO FAA FAHA FASSA FTSE FTSE FASSA FAHA FAA AO JONES O BARRY Hon The c e PAGE 2 u [email protected] emissions emissions 2 Email: 03 9347 8237 39.5 per with US the nations: ve Facsimile: Dr D C Gibson FTSE PO Box 355, Parkville Vic 3052 Vic 355, Parkville PO Box 03 9340 1200 Ian McLennan House, 197 Royal Parade, Parkville Vic 3052 Vic Parkville Parade, 197 Royal House, Ian McLennan Australia – resource-rich Australia – faces an exis- Australia – resource-rich Australia CO two-thirdsAbout of anthropogenic However, the US would not be a plausible or de- not be would US a plausible the However, AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING AND SCIENCES TECHNOLOGICAL OF ACADEMY AUSTRALIAN ACN 008 520 394 ACN No 341403/0025 Publication Post Print ISSN 1326-8708 ABN 58 008 520 394 American environmental writer John McPhee calcu- McPhee John writer environmental American daily the has calorifi average American the lated that (food and fuel)intake whale. As he pointed of a sperm whales. sperm many sustain cannot biota the out, social, profound economic, choice with tential environ- or to follow, whether and politicalmental implications, use. exceed, modeleven US of high-level the resource Honorary Editor: Address: Address: Postal Telephone: inant, factor in US foreign and domestic policy foreign factor US in and domestic inant, goals. and Protocol signed Kyoto the Europe why explains It did US not. the or for India consumption modelsirable of resource would soon we it was, needChina. If a new planet. Th are accounted for by fi for by accounted are the cent, on 8.7 per total, Japan followed by of the cent cent 6.6 per Germany cent, 7.4 per Federation Russian and as Japan China, However, UK cent. 4.6 per and the propor- these production, industrial increase Korea will changetions rapidly. . It AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING (ATSE) ENGINEERING AND SCIENCES TECHNOLOGICAL OF ACADEMY AUSTRALIAN Focus experi- massive called atcher “a

Arctic that evidence is convincing ere

in force came into and ed 160 nations by F CUS

www.coretext.com.au been a single in de- years have hottest of the ve he year 2005 was the warmest on record, and warmest the he year 2005 was fi cade. Th that rate, an unprecedented at sea-ice is melting

(1997) has Change on Climate Protocol e Kyoto Will this bring the world to a tipping point, beyond point, to a tipping world the Will bring this Th Access to cheap oil is a dominant, perhaps the dom- the perhaps oil is a dominant, to cheap Access IN THIS THIS IN ISSUE: NUMBER MARCH 140 Fellows contribute their views on climate change; on energy change; on energy contribute their views on climate Fellows on GM crops. on nuclear issues and Australia; options for 2006 may be reproduced provided appropriate acknowledgement to appropriate is given provided be reproduced may the author and the Academy. Production: Statements and opinions presented in this publication are those of the in this publication are and opinions presented Statements ATSE. ect the views of and do not necessarily refl authors, no copyright is restrictionThere on material published in ATSE T time to get serious get to time By Barry Jones Global climate change: it’s change: Global climate permafrost is thawing in Siberia with the probability the of with Siberia in is thawing permafrost increased that emissions, methane in increases dramatic rest the (and presumably Britain microbial in activity soil. the carbon in stored is releasing of Europe) Th Margaret which what ment with the system of this planet” is irreversible? of this system the with ment now beennow ratifi which have only states the West the February 2005. In Mo- Australia, States, refused United to sign the are George senior Bush President and Liechtenstein. naco of life non- was way American “the once asserted that 4.6 per US, with the that negotiable”: he meant I think a God-given has population, right world’s of the cent non-renewable world’s of the cent 40 per to consume perpetuity. in resources COVER STORY: CLIMATE CHANGE

t FROM PAGE 1 ‘exceptionalism’ which the US pursues elsewhere, such

In annual per capita rates of CO2 emissions, Austra- as refusing to sign international conventions on land lia ranks fi rst (27.9 tonnes), followed by Canada (21.9), mines, the death penalty, torture and the International the US (21.1), Ireland (15.4) and the UK (10.8). Criminal Court. Professor George Monbiot (Th e Guardian, 29 Sep- In January 2006 the Asia–Pacifi c Partnership for tember 2005) argues that there are four stages of denial Clean Development and Climate (sic) held its fi rst about climate change: meeting in Sydney. Th e group’s name is odd: surely 1. global warming is a myth; there should have been a word or words aft er ‘Climate’? 2. global warming does exist, but it will provide more Th e partners, code name AP6, are the US, Australia, benefi ts than harm (for example, more crop yields); Japan, China, India and South Korea. 3. global warming may cause more harm than good, but Th e AP6 Communiqué sets no specifi c targets or it will cost too much to tackle; and objectives and essentially privatises the problem of 4. it should have been tackled, but it’s too late now. greenhouse gas emissions: government steps back, fails to provide leadership, goals, penalties or incentives, and invites industry, in a context-free zone, to come up with new ideas. In the past decade the Taskforces are to be set up for eight industrial sec- tors, such as cement, steel, aluminium and coalmining. quality of public debate in But they will be working in isolation. No taskforce will examine energy effi ciency or broad policy options. Australia about climate Th ere are no taskforces for oil or the motor industry. (Does that come as a surprise?) Government funding is change has been woeful. minimal and Australia’s contribution is larger than the – Barry Jones US’s. Tim Flannery writes (New York Review of Books, 23 Th e G8 Summit held at Gleneagles, Scotland, in February 2006): “Both the Bush administration and July 2005 agreed on a Plan of Action: Climate Change, the Howard government … have now admitted that the Clean Energy and Sustainable Development and the US current situation cannot go on. But they want to keep was a signatory. Aft er vigorous negotiation, led by Tony burning coal and at the same time have a stable climate Blair, the US agreed to sign the communiqué stating – an impossible outcome.” He describes AP6 as “omi- that climate change “is happening now” and that hu- nous”. It is certainly cynical. man activity “is contributing to it” and to reaffi rm the In the past decade the quality of public debate in importance of work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Australia about climate change has been woeful, with Climate Change (IPCC). professional industry consultants and lobbyists taking Th e text stated: “While uncertainties remain in our the lead. Environmentalists are on the defensive. Mi- understanding of climate science, we know enough to chael Crichton’s novel State of Fear (2005), heavily pro- act now to put ourselves on a path to slow and, as the moted by the American Enterprise Institute, portrays science justifi es, stop and then reverse the growth of environmentalists as terrorists. greenhouse gases.” It would come as a shock to many politicians, in- Th e document is woefully weak, little more than an dustrialists and consultants in Australia to realise that expression of vague hopes, and concerns about fl oods, Lord Browne of Madingley, Chair and CEO of BP, crop failures, disease and rising sea levels were deleted. and Lord Oxburgh, Chair of Shell, support the Kyoto Failure to refer to Kyoto targets, setting benchmarks Protocol and call for carbon taxes so that industry can or a timeframe for action is disturbing, since reducing make rational decisions about future investment. In greenhouse gas levels is likely to be part of a 40-year cy- the US, Texaco, General Motors, DaimlerChrysler and cle, probably longer. We need to be planning for 2046– Duke Energy are supporters of global action on climate 50, even if major polluters act now. Remember that the change. (ExxonMobil, the American Petroleum Insti- fi rst phase of the Kyoto Protocol only runs to 2011. tute and Dick Cheney’s energy task force are strong Nevertheless, Gleneagles is a small fi rst step for the opponents). US towards acknowledging the reality of human con- Meanwhile, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Re- tribution to climate change. It modifi es the policy of search, a world leader for decades, is scaling down and www.atse.org.au

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Business Co-operation Committee and a member of the Lafarge International Advisory Board. Email: hm@fi Email: Board. Advisory International Lafarge the of member a and Committee Co-operation Business rstchar.com

Principal of First Charnock, a Director of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, President of the Australia Japan Japan Australia the of President Australia, of Bank Reserve the of Board the of Director a Charnock, First of Principal

MORGAN M HUGH Mr FTSE FTSE AC ed ed (1999). acted e US concentrations concentrations 2 CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE in the greenhouse gas the in 2 , will be published by , will be published by is argument e global warmers’ A Thinking Reed Dictionary of World Biography Dictionary of World Sleepers, Wake! Technology and the Future and the Future Technology Wake! Sleepers, ce to say that the evidentiary base for human evidentiary base the for human that ce to say (1982) and numbers. you do the until is plausible is argument And according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Panel Intergovernmental to the according And Th at- the cycles dioxide through Carbon naturally Suffi to school before post- who went of us As those change status in of carbon dioxide’s cause the Now cantly opaque to infra-red. As CO cantly e percentage taken up by CO varies atmosphere the in vapour of water e amount increase, then the earth’s surface will increase in tem- in will increase surface earth’s the then increase, perature. (IPCC), Change earth year 2100 the the Climate by lower the 1.4°C if you take 5.8°C (or by will be warmer policies of decarboni- serious and therefore estimate) necessary economy are to achieve world’s of the sation stability’. ‘climate Th Wa- two is about cent. per atmosphere the in inventory overwhelming is the greenhouse gas, vapour ter com- inventory. total of the 95 per cent than more prising Th related exogenous variables seasons and with the with and solar winds. asto solar activity such sunspots oceans. and the Huge landmass earth’s the mosphere, injected oceans of carbon are the dioxide volumes into impact on climate change it was is far higher on climate than impact Th destruction. of mass weapons for Iraq’s other. the on one and repudiated strongly is a Fellow FASSA FTSE FAHA FAA Jones AO Hon. BarryThe O. a Member He was Academies. Learned Australian of all four Science 1977–98, Minister for of the House of Representatives of UNESCO Board Executive 1983–90, a member of the ALP 1992–2000 and of the President 1991–95, National College, Trinity at Commoner Fellow Visiting 2005–06 and a Fellow Chancellor’s Vice a He is currently 2000–01. Cambridge of Melbourne. the University at His books include of Work is identifi carbon dioxide way mendacious this In labelled is always US and the as pollutant, as a serious la- is frequently (Australia polluter. greatest world’s the belled as second US). to the car- aware, are classroom the in took over modernism non- tasteless, odourless, is a colourless, bon dioxide gas to alltoxic life which on earth. is essential All green requires carbon food asvegetation dioxide plant and in take which in plants process of photosynthesis, the carbon the store solar radiation, absorb carbon dioxide, oxygen,and emit is basic to life. global is the pollutant to toxic nutrient plant vital from campaign. Th warming is a greenhouse gas they say, dioxide, Carbon simple. sig- but radiation to ultraviolet which is transparent nifi His autobiography, His autobiography, in mid-2006. & Unwin Allen cial in in cial too, some ere for enthusiasm eir particulates y ash and other was particularly benefi was particularly 2 brain drain:cant of it is not one

cantly during the past decade the or so of during cantly

campaign parallels the with striking are ere oods and hurricanes, rather than ‘global ‘global than rather oods hurricanes, and ciency agenda, is no longer on the and perhaps ted signifi

on 11–12 January Sydney e AP6 in meeting

was asked to contribute to this debate as a person debate to this was asked to contribute change. I do so with climate in an interest with was training formal because my some trepidation the which provide sciences one of the not in law, in But carbon dioxide has had a bad press since those those since a bad press had has carbon dioxide But Th Not all the causes of and linkages all causes change the climate Not in Some years ago CSIRO some experi- out carried was going Similar Phoenix, work the on in where HOW DID CARBON DIOXIDE DIOXIDE CARBON DID HOW GAS? SATANIC A BECOME low-rainfall situations. So Australia’s cereal crops have have crops cereal So Australia’s low-rainfall situations. benefi rainfalllow which carbon been has dioxide the from observed increasing in the atmosphere the during past 30 years. a story and whenever days on global is fea- warming image cool- a background of the either on TV, tured of white its plume with station, of a power tower ing belching above, or a smokestack droplets water minute of soot, fl plumes dark forth culprit. is the carbon dioxide told that are we is shown, By Hugh Morgan By Hugh I place. is taking which debate in this structure the organisation’s ‘National Research Flagships’. Public Public Research Flagships’. ‘National organisation’s the ininvestment alternative energy has been stripped. En- ergy effi priority. a low was.it never Renewables have higher speak of now of the clear and we incidence are warming, including cooling, events’, weather ‘extreme fl drought, Th warming’. Th links. cancer smoking/lung the against Greek longevityodd anomalies (the of heavily-smoking conclusions. broad the males) invalidate do not contributing to a signifi to contributing 2006 generated a great deal of press commentary, and and 2006 generated commentary, a great deal of press of large of expenditures promise concluded the with and public, on pumping private both of money, sums of carbon underground. dioxide large quantities carbon of enhanced dioxide impact on the work mental growth. Th on plant concentrations CSIRO reached the which discoveries (of Board their and I recall of a member) reports reading then I was en- these under growth plant spectacular in increases conditions. carbonhanced dioxide or- sour was growing of Agriculture Department US concentra- carbon enhanced dioxide ange under trees again it tions, time this spectacular with At results. CO extra that found was CLIMATE CHANGE

and atmosphere during earthquakes and volcanoes. Th e models can generate ‘realistic’ simulations of climate is amount of carbon contained in atmospheric carbon di- the principal reason why I remain a climate sceptic. oxide is about 730,000 million tonnes (730 gigatonnes “From my background in turbulence I look for- of carbon – GtC). Th e annual carbon fl ux between ward with grim anticipation to the day that climate the land surface and the atmosphere is estimated at models will run with a horizontal resolution of less 120GtC; between the oceans and the atmosphere the than a kilometre. Th e horrible predictability problems estimate is 90GtC. Th e annual emissions of carbon di- of turbulent fl ows then will descend on climate science oxide to the atmosphere resulting from human activi- with a vengeance.” ties is about 7GtC, less than one per cent of the total So the case against carbon dioxide is, I believe, ten- atmospheric carbon mass. uous. Until the case against carbon dioxide has come Changes in the natural carbon fl ux, as well as hu- up with much better arguments and some convincing man activities, have led to recent increases in atmo- empirical evidence (as opposed to the damning contra- spheric concentrations of carbon dioxide; increasing evidence from satellite measurements of temperature from about 280ppmv to 380ppmv over the past 150 and radiation) then we in Australia should continue years. Some of this increase is clearly due to the burning to exploit our comparative advantage of access to very of fossil fuels. Some of it is also due to volcanic activ- low-cost brown coal and low-cost black coal. ity and earthquakes both on land and under the sea. Everyone agrees that climate has changed, and will Some is due to dissolution from the oceans which have continue to change. But to argue that a small pertur- warmed since the 1970s. bation in CO2 concentrations, a gas on which all life Compared with the rapid and substantial changes depends and which has reached much higher concen- in atmospheric water vapor, changes in atmospheric trations in the geological history of the earth, will bring CO2 are minute. Greenhouse gas theory requires in- about climate catastrophe is a most improbable story. creasing temperatures in the troposphere compared to To decarbonise the Australian economy (cutting surface temperatures and a decrease in radiation from CO2 emissions by 60 per cent) would have a devastat- the upper atmosphere to space. Satellite measurements ing impact on the economy, on employment and on since 1979 show virtually no change in tropospheric our capacity to defend ourselves. temperatures, and increased radiation from earth to Politically, it is highly improbable that any govern- space. Th e conclusion to be drawn is that the carbon ment which went down this path would survive the dioxide theory of global warming must be called into following election. But the damage which would be question. As a sometime lawyer it would be courageous caused, even from a one-term government determined to say these things in the present climate of politically to decarbonise, would be very great. correct opinion without being able to draw upon ex- I wonder if CSIRO is continuing substantial re- pert opinion in support. Th ere is a substantial body of search into CO2 enhancement of plant and cereal such opinion. growth? I doubt it.

A recent example is Hendrik Tennekes, retired Di- Hugh M Morgan AC FTSE is Principal of First Charnock; rector of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological a Director of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia; President of the Australia Japan Business Co-operation Institute, and a leading world authority on turbulence, Committee and a member of the Lafarge International who wrote recently: “Th e task of fi nding all nonlinear Advisory Board. He is also a Trustee of The Asia Society New York, Chairman of the Asia Society AustralAsia Centre; feedback mechanisms in the microstructure of the radi- President of the National Gallery of Victoria Foundation ation balance probably is at least as daunting as the task and Chairman of the Order of Australia Association Foundation. From 2003–05 he was President of the Business of fi nding the proverbial needle in the haystack. Th e Council of Australia and is Immediate Past Co-Chair of the blind adherence to the harebrained idea that climate Commonwealth Business Council and continuing Director. To decarbonise the Australian economy… would have a devastating impact on the economy, on employment and on our

– Hugh Morgan www.atse.org.au capacity to defend ourselves.

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and chair of the Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate of the Global Climate Observing System. Email: [email protected] Email: System. Observing Climate Global the of Climate for Panel Observation Atmospheric the of chair and nash.edu.au

c Committee for the World Climate Research Programme Programme Research Climate World the for Committee c Scientifi Joint the of member Centre, Research Meteorology of Bureau the of Chief Former

Dr MICHAEL J MANTON MANTON J MICHAEL Dr FTSE

er- cant cant at is, at CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE of prob- ese concepts all the e process of assimilating cantly and the accuracy and the of forecasts for cantly prediction e useful has range of weather Th terms. probabilistic ed in e consequence of the nexus between nexus super- of the e consequence Indeed, it is common to run an ensemble of model an ensemble to run it is common Indeed, Th na- chaotic the recognise we increasingly that But being models were as computer same time the At an initial prediction is essentially While weather basis for weather forecasting on global, continental and and on global, forecasting basis continental for weather localscales. Th cha- inherently the been increasing. However, steadily is a limit there that means atmosphere of the nature otic prediction. Beyond to deterministic 10 days of about of rangethis it is necessary distribution the to consider atmosphere. of the states probable probability this distri- to estimate order in predictions for account even for short-range forecasting.bution, To atmosphere, of the state initial the in uncertainty the a slightly is started diff with member each ensemble condition. initial Th ent meteorological the routine around from observations ships, balloons, ground, buoys, the aircraft (from world technologycomputing and meteorological science prediction pro- has weather numerical that meant has gressed signifi and satellites) in order to estimate the initial state of the of the initial state the to estimate order and satellites) in a signifi is very and consumes complex atmosphere time. of supercomputer amount a few ahead to support days weather-de- is adequate shipping, aviation, (for example, commercial pendent and societal disaster (for example, primary industries) is a very un- It activities. events) sporting management, to be not predicted weather with for tomorrow’s usual useful accuracy. as such the features that means atmosphere of the ture of rainfall intensity or the should be of a front timing specifi climate become understanding able outcomes in vital change modelling.and climate a fewdeveloped ahead, days sci- to predict weather the very same (or similar) models the applying were entists A prediction and simulation. of climate problem to the was being considered;range of questions for example, observed the simulate can we varia- seasonal climate predict or can we world zones of the for various tions changed if we the climate world’s of the mean state the atmosphere? the of carbon in dioxide concentration pre- climate terms, mathematical in value problem of a boundary is more diction Th value problem. initial state to the prediction is very sensitive weather prediction is looking while climate atmosphere, of the forcings, such external of sustained impacts the at more or greenhouse gases solar radiation incoming as the in atmosphere. the uid uid awed, it did rst generation generation rst rst prediction was rst was for a 24-hour e calculation er the war, John von Neumann, Neumann, von John war, the er cer during the First World War. He He War. World First the during cer

rst useful numerical weather prediction was weather usefulrst numerical

er much preparation, the fi the preparation, much er based prediction on solv- of weather e concept e fi e t is easy to be a sceptic about climate change mod- climate t is easy about to be a sceptic right, weather elling: get tomorrow’s if they can’t for a forecast 50 years ahead? for hopeis there what to ex- order in statements to examine these like I’d Th Th While fl his was somewhat method Aft Today supercomputers are used routinely at a num- at used are routinely supercomputers Today ow was proposed by L.F. Richardson while serving Richardson as was proposedow L.F. by

THE COMPLEXITIES OF OF COMPLEXITIES THE CHANGE CLIMATE MODELLING I change modelling with climate is involved plain what I’ll scepticism. such should we moderate start and why prediction. of weather closely related problem the with By Michael Manton By Michael ing the fundamental equations for the physics of fl physics for the equations fundamental the ing fl an ambulance offi pre- weather numerical basis for modern the provide of and indeed concept diction, the it also anticipated which was implemented parallelmassively computing decades later. saw that the equations of motion could be of motion solved nu- equations the that saw dividing a geographicalmerically by region a grid into calcu- make is, a person) (that a ‘computer’ and having of instruction the Under for each grid square. lations of a room, each ‘computer’ centre the at a ‘conductor’ neighbours so that their onto results would pass their between could be grid taken squares interactions the account. into properly the mathematician who helped develop ENIAC, was mathematician the For- new computer. of the uses for peacetime looking Jule he met with University Princeton at tunately, meteorologists leading who wasof the one Charney, of the use the decidedwas that It century. 20th of the and would be forecasting timely for weather computer feasible. carried out in the US in 1950 using the fi the 1950 using in US the in out carried Numerical ENIAC (Electronic the of ‘supercomputer’, developed Second the in and Computer), Integrator mathematical ballistic and other to solve War World Aft problems. wartime 1950. Th in out carried prediction over North America, and the elapsed time elapsed time America, and the North prediction over Although the 24 hours. calculation was about for the nu- that prediction was not perfect, it demonstrated im- prediction was possible and most weather merical between nexus it established a continuing portantly meteorology and supercomputing. World the including world, the around of centres ber the to provide Melbourne, in Meteorological Centre CLIMATE CHANGE

Th e interpretation of the output of a climate model change science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- has to be based on averaging the output over at least mate Change (IPCC), and its approach has been ad- time and area; increasingly, ensembles of model results opted for a range of other model validation projects. are used to estimate the probable distribution of cli- In summary, there have been internationally recog- mate states. It is oft en diffi cult to determine how much nised demonstrations that numerical models can eff ec- averaging is needed to obtain a robust estimate of a cli- tively simulate and predict weather and climate varia- mate state. tions on a range of scales. However, the chaotic nature Validation of weather prediction models is rela- of the climate system means that there is increasing tively straightforward. Under the auspices of the World uncertainty in predictions as we look further ahead. Meteorological Organization (WMO), national mete- For this reason we would not attempt a ‘forecast for 50 orological services routinely (and freely) exchange ob- years ahead’ in the manner of a weather forecast. served data, which are used to estimate the initial state On the other hand, we can use our climate models of the atmosphere to commence a numerical prediction to demonstrate the expected global and large-scale ef- and also to compare with the model predictions for val- fects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. idation purposes. (Both these processes involve sophis- Th e chaotic fl uctuations due to the internal variability ticated mathematics because the observations are er- of the climate system act as ‘noise’ masking the green- ror-prone and they are oft en indirect measurements of house ‘signal’, but they can be simulated in climate mod- meteorological variables.) Each day we can make many els. Sources of external noise, such as the occurrence of estimates of the accuracy of the model predictions. volcanic eruptions that inject ash into the stratosphere Th e validation of climate predictions and simula- or inherent fl uctuations in solar radiation, are more dif- tions is much more diffi cult because we can only con- fi cult to project into the future. However, it has been sider the results in probabilistic terms. For example, we demonstrated that the eff ects of these fl uctuations can need to make many year-long runs in order to estab- also be simulated in climate models. lish whether a seasonal prediction system is useful for We have noted that uncertainty in predictions in- practical applications. On the other hand, because es- creases as the prediction period increases. However, sentially the same model can be used for both weather uncertainty also grows as we decrease the scale of the and climate applications, the continuing validation of a region of interest. For example, the range of the annual model in weather prediction provides a necessary (but temperature for a region decreases as we increase the not suffi cient) validation for its application to climate area of the region: the annual average temperature for problems. Melbourne can have a range of about 1.5°C over a de- By the late 1980s there were dozens of models cade or so, while the corresponding range for the whole around the world being used for climate simulations, globe is about 0.3°C. It follows that prediction of small- and the lack of agreement or validation of these models scale climate features has more uncertainty than predic- was limiting the acceptance of the results of any model. tion of large-scale features. Under the auspices of the World Climate Research For this reason, analysis of regional impacts of in- Programme (WCRP), a program of systematic valida- creasing greenhouse gases is usually focused on sensitiv- tion of climate models was established in 1989. It was ity studies that consider the range of possible climate called the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Proj- states. ect (AMIP), and it was largely supported by the US And so, we can answer our sceptic by saying that Department of Energy. numerical weather prediction models generally do get Any model could be included in the project, pro- tomorrow’s forecast right, and that climate simulations vided strict protocols were followed for the initial based on these weather models provide useful informa- and boundary conditions of model runs and for the tion on the range of probable climate states decades format of model output. Comparisons were carried ahead. out between model simulations and the observed cli- Dr Michael Manton FTSE was Chief of the Bureau of mate, and between diff erent models. Th e AMIP pro- Meteorology Research Centre from 1985–2006. He now has vided credibility to climate models in general, and it a part-time position as Professor at Monash University. For 12 years he was a member of the Joint Scientifi c Committee also demonstrated that there is no ‘single best’ model: for the World Climate Research Programme, and for the past while one model may simulate the best mean climate, nine years he has been chair of the Atmospheric Observation another may have a better simulation of the water cycle. Panel for Climate of the Global Climate Observing System. From 2002–06 he was chair of the National Committee for Th e results of AMIP fed into the assessments of climate Earth System Science of the Australian Academy of Science. www.atse.org.au

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airs for Alcoa. Email: [email protected] Email: Alcoa. for airs aff environmental of manager

Formerly Chief Executive of the Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand, and and Zealand, New Environment, the for Ministry the of Executive Chief Formerly

Mr BARRY A CARBON A BARRY Mr

AM FTSE FTSE AM airs for for airs several are ere CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE x under current cir- current x under c uncertainty? Can they they c uncertainty? Can rming that our climate will keep chang- will keep climate our that rming c would be good a and place for Australia e Pacifi e It would be a useful contribution to public discus- would be a useful contribution It go do we So policy? where with a new now there Is some people this will use that it is likely that I think Responsible policy certainly more being requires Responsible policy courageous being means the in Responsible policy also trying means to be conser- Responsible scale policy means on an international Th there policy that responsible And accepting means ll. We all know the list. the all know ll. We Barry Carbon AM FTSE is leaving New Zealand for Western Western for Zealand New is leaving Barry AM FTSE Carbon of the Ministry as Chief Executive after years four Australia he has held equivalent Previously the Environment. for and Goverment the Australian positions with Queensland, He has been Supervising the Scientist for Australia. Western aff Region, managed environmental River Alligator with CSIRO. a scientist and was Alcoa keep the climate changing for at least hundreds of years. least hundreds for at changing climate the keep the will climb and that temperature the that know We feeling that a very strong have we sea level And will rise. will become frequent. events more weather extreme cli- the publicly that started saying scientists sion if we was going changing.mate to keep claimed should we not that nirvana naysayers for the becauserespond of scientifi respond? it so why stop can’t we say now More self-interest. of justifying as their a way approach re- policy public involves will the demand likely that is responsible. that a response and involves sponse, open in confi their can make decision-makers appropriate so that ing decisions will of the be decisions. informed Most own change. to climate adapting about is a who argue a focus on adaptation face of critics that cop-out. of greenhouse gases. emissions today’s about In vative to justify allow- change it is hard certainty of climate some peopleing to decide not to be conservative; this coercion degree some of mutual should we have means Th to require approach. a conservative greenhouse including reasons gas to expect emissions of gas-guz- industry and avoidance from best practice we but do not need farms worm zling motor cars. We do need land- from obligatory management methane fi is a global this and issue that reinforcement absolute a global Re- is pointless. than response other anything for those policysponsible response a grown-up means highly will the not cope with that world parts of the change. of climate consequences likely ZealandNew to look. fi cannot world the that is an issue and knowledge. cumstances e US US e e climate climate e ed. Th ction ction scenario, carbon dioxide cult for policy-makers. If we have to have we cult If for policy-makers. gures we are now at about 380ppm of about at now gures are we

change is going climate be to us with that dent change phenomenon has been has a mixed bagchange phenomenon of is numb- good It and bad news scientists. for us ingly diffi limate change is mostly bad news. change Th is mostly limate

global By is the Protocol club of status. e Kyoto It must be 30 years since we scientists and engineers scientists be we years since 30 must It to be public discussion allowed of the we much But Zealand public of the and New much Australia In Th Let us take an optimistic view that we could we actu- view that an optimistic Let take us to unimaginable optimism the to take were we If We know that emissions we have already made will already made have we emissions that know We SCIENTISTS, POLICY AND AND POLICY SCIENTISTS, CHANGE CLIMATE

start this epistle with some optimism, we can at least can at we optimism, some with epistle this start feel confi might we getfor a long, better at Eventually time. long it. dealing with atmosphere the in carbon dioxide that started saying world the that and coincidentally alarmingly, risen had two linked the together an in We was getting hotter. fashion, dis- and informed proper enquiring and had world. the around learned forums in cussion uncertainty. about us than timid less those by captured between lost publics were our that wonder is little It misery of the instant industry predicting extremes the cynical and the on one hand denials of the catastrophe other. on the naysayers been has discussion supportive positions diverted into In Protocol. of or opposed ratifying Kyoto to the of the 158 coun- Zealand of the 101st New end, the was the joined global the that club and ratifi tries C did not. two that were and Australia By Barry Carbon 2012 it is intended to reduce people-driven emissions to reduce people-driven2012 it is intended emissions of cent to 95 per (and equivalents) of carbon dioxide did that of those opinion, most my 1990 level. In the sign goal. will part not achieve of the their the And al- US, have the biggest the from emissions emitter, 800 million about increased by ready tonnes. 1990 level. We of the cent 95 per at ally hold emissions global atmo- that the levels in of carbon dioxide know a linear fash- about to climb in would continue sphere fi round ion. In carbon compared to 270ppm only dioxide 50 years ago. to grow. will continue It Under of present. to half emissions levels could we cut fi almost science this levels would take more than 100 years to stabilise, and to stabilise, 100 years than more levels would take sce- any 540ppm. be about Under at they would then to half of reducing cost I can imagine human the nario be would unacceptable. emissions of present CLIMATE CHANGE

GREENHOUSE ISSUES - A WEST ferent from the rest of Australia (and most other de- AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE veloped economies). A signifi cant proportion of WA’s By Roy Green GHG emissions are generated in the production of here is an ever-increasing concern regarding energy and of raw materials for use in other countries. the impact of human activity on climate, and Th e rapidly expanding LNG industry will exacerbate all Australian States are responding strongly to this problem for WA, even though it may help to con- this concern. Th is article outlines the issue from tain global emissions by replacing coal and oil usage

u TWestern Australia’s perspective, and canvasses the pros- elsewhere. pects and possibilities for containing greenhouse gas Th is emphasises the importance of achieving an in- AO FTSE FTSE AO (GHG) emissions. ternational emissions trading arrangement to create in- Climate change impacts centives for use of the most greenhouse-effi cient fuels. BOM records show WA’s average temperature ris- As things stand, however, WA’s GHG emissions ing essentially in line with the trend in global average continue to increase; from 24 megatonnes in 1990 to

Dr ROY GREEN Dr ROY temperatures. Total annual rainfall has remained fairly about 42 megatonnes in 2005. Th ey are predicted to be consistent over the past century, but with substantial about 100 megatonnes in 2050 on a business as usual regional changes: a decline in the south-west of about scenario; this contrasts with the 12 megatonnes that 10 per cent, and an increase in the northern and inland is required to achieve the 50 per cent reduction from parts of the state. 1990 levels, now widely espoused as necessary to limit Climate modelling by CSIRO indicates that, on climate change impacts in the long term. a ‘business as usual’ scenario, average annual rainfalls It would be naïve to think that such reductions are in the South West could decline by as much as 20 per possible without both economic and social pain, even cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2070, relative to 1990 assuming technological developments will occur to levels. Average annual temperatures are projected to in- help achieve the targets. crease by 0.4 to 2.0 degrees by 2030 and by 1.0 to 6.8 Th e challenge facing WA is to weigh the costs of degrees by 2070. implementation measures to reduce GHG emissions Th e impacts of such changes will be signifi cant and against the benefi ts and risks, and hence to determine broad-based: the availability of water resources (there what actions to take, and when. Th e equation is com- has been a 40 to 50 per cent reduction in run-off to plicated further by the uncertainties of international Perth’s main water supply dams) and the impact on policies on climate change and carbon emissions; being water quality and water-dependent ecosystems in the out of step could impact severely on industrial develop- south-west; impacts on agriculture, fi sheries and for- ment and the viability of existing industry. estry; and possible impacts on coastal settlements and Policy responses natural tourism attractions as a consequence of increas- Th e WA Government released its Greenhouse ing sea temperatures, rising sea levels and coral deaths. Strategy in 2004, with the aim of reducing GHG emis- The challenge sions and to respond to opportunities and challenges Th e relative strength of the WA economy is under- generated by climate change. Formerly President of the Murray Darling Basin Commission and Chair of the National Land and Water Resources Advisory Council; Resources Water and Chair of the National Land Darling Basin Commission of the Murray President Formerly pinned by its abundant natural resources. Th is resource It then established a Greenhouse Unit to coordi- currently chair of a WA Government Taskforce on managing GHG emissions from stationary energy sources. Email: [email protected] stationary GHG emissions from on managing sources. energy Taskforce Government WA chair of a currently endowment and sparse population means that WA is nate all activities concerned with greenhouse policy heavily export oriented, providing more than 30 per and climate change in WA, and to report annually on cent of Australia’s merchandise exports. implementation of the Strategy recommendations. It It also means that its GHG emissions profi le is dif- is now establishing a mandatory GHG emissions re- porting framework for major emitters, leading to a WA GHG Inventory and, hopefully, incentives to reduce History tells us that GHG emissions. Particular attention is being given to the south- procrastination usually west, where changes in climate impact most severely. Th e Government has supported the Indian Ocean means both the costs Climate Initiative since 1998, a climate research pro- gram focused on providing a greater understanding of and the diffi culty increase. climate variability in the south-west, and will develop – Roy Green an integrated global climate change impact and assess- www.atse.org.au

8 www.atse.org.au 9 at orts eld, and eld, keep- and risks, ts CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE ciency, ciency, that can be cult message to con- to achieve re- the cient par- measures, are ere uence international eff international uence and perhaps important e most culty increase. culty the most diffi most the need is the to vey to government GHG to control now action take not emissions; are good intentions enough. Th The UrgencyThe Th to guide policies for and planning Investment responses. adaptation and devel- impacts monitoring in responses and implementing oping few next for the is essential surely decades. technologies coal generation be-cient are Gorgon the in gas component cant fi emissions is technically dioxide emissions possible. Carbon 2 Some hard decisions needSome hard to be carefully made, Similarly, cogeneration (in which the excess heat heat (in cogeneration excess which the Similarly, More effi is a signifi collection to be and geosequestation a require- is likely to proceed. development for that ment ticularly in improving energy improving in ticularly effi economically advantageous, as well as environmentally should be promoted measures and such and enforced. will not be these suffi However, emissions. in quired deep cuts against benefi costs weighing the the need mind the in ing to infl change. His- climate and costly dangerous to prevent both usually means tory procrastination tells that us diffi and the costs the after CSIRO in 1996, from retired FTSE AO Green Dr Roy and environment in science working in Canberra 21 years then he has been Since management. policy and research Chair of Darling Basin Commission, of the Murray President Advisory Council, Resources Water Land and the National He is currently EPA. Australian West and Deputy Chair of the advice to provide Government WA the for Taskforce chairing a stationary sources, on managing GHG emissions from energy 2050. reductions by 50 per cent and options for of conventional generation alternatives. parts electricity used is other in produced generating in being dissipated to than process rather industrial of the should practical. be used wherever atmosphere) the developed, ing of the and collection and sequestration CO Adaptation con- has Government As already noted WA above, the to reduce GHG on measures Th emissions. centrated change is already occurring, climate but and is laudable, recognise would outlook that optimistic most our even GHG yet. At goinglevels for some time are to increase should be a parallel least there to identify activity the state’s change of the vulnerabilities to climate major the and socio-economic and hence systems, environmental Gas Reforming Combustion Hydrogen Engines term Long 2020–2050 Gas Reforming Combustion Hydrogen Engines Fusion Gas Reforming Combustion Hydrogen Engines - - fac- set by ciency ciency ciency Medium term 2012–2020 Geothermal Effi Solar PV Combustion Hydrogen Engines Effi Geosquestration Geothermal Wave Effi e following matrix matrix following e significiency may ts or the higher or the ts cost cally excludes nuclear uation. Renewable energy ciency ciencyTowers Solar technologies e long-term at are ciency Geosquestration Short term 2006–2012 Gas Switching Bio-Energy Effi Wind Effi Effi Wind and on energysets, initiatives. conservation cation to be implemented for WA conditions. conditions. for WA to be implemented cation trading will also on emissions advise e Taskforce Th Technologies relevant to the short-term are avail- are short-term to the relevant Technologies Technologies relevant to the medium-term are at at are medium-term to the relevant Technologies Just what mix of generation technologies mix of generation what is ap- Just More recently a Greenhouse and Energy Taskforce and Energy a Greenhouse recently Taskforce More managing GHG emissions from the stationary stationary managing GHG the from emissions energy short sector the term; in and feasibilitythe GHG of reducing by emissions longer term. the in cent 50 per

North-West Oil North-West and Gas Province and Regional WA mining industry sector TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS AND TIMEFRAMES OPTIONS AND TECHNOLOGY South West Interconnected grid able now at production scale, although production need at theyable now may modifi Further improvements in energy effi cantly GHG emissions in WA. WA has three distinct distinct three has WA GHG WA. in cantly emissions Grid SW Interconnected sources: the emission major NW and Regional the (SWIG); Oil and Gas Province; Th mining sector. the including WA related and the available options main the indicates frame:time reduce GHGcantly emissions. prototype and could, or pilot scale development with and planning,focussed be investigation commissioned before 2020. Th WA in laboratory pilot scale or small Current development. policy specifi Government WA benefi astors such environmental Technology options Technology and Energy Greenhouse parallel the with In Task- is also an Energy developing Technology WA force, to identify developing and assist Strategy, Innovation reduce to signifi potential the have technologies that energy consideration. from propriate needs careful eval market present under but technologies attractive, are to be cir- only certain in viable likely are conditions higher off are their costs where cumstances, ¢ ¢ ment strategyment south-west. the for on: beenhas advice established to provide and off CLIMATE CHANGE

THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL controversial issues such as climate change is to pres- PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE ent the science objectively to inform the policy process, By John Zillman rather than to present it selectively in order to help he current worldwide concern with climate achieve their own preferred outcomes, the daily media change, and what to do about it, was not trig- and popular scientifi c literature provide distressingly gered by any signifi cant evidence of the earth’s frequent examples of the violence that can be done to climate having exceeded the bounds of its nor- sound science and the credibility of the IPCC assess- Tmal natural variability. It resulted, rather, from the ments by even subtle misrepresentation of its fi ndings increasingly confi dent assertions of climate scientists and modus operandi. AO FTSE FTSE AO through the 1970s and 80s that the continuing human- Two particularly notable examples are Tim Flan- induced build-up of carbon dioxide and other ‘green- nery’s recent book Th e Weather Makers on the his- house’ gases in the atmosphere would eventually lead to tory and future impact of climate change which, while irreversible global warming and probably, also, to other widely acclaimed as scientifi c and authoritative, con- signifi cant long-term changes of global and regional siderably overstates the science and misrepresents the weather and climate. IPCC in order to promote a view of impending climate Dr JOHN W ZILLMAN W ZILLMAN Dr JOHN Some very strident statements about the threat of catastrophe far worse than anything envisioned in the greenhouse warming from a small group of climate sci- IPCC assessments; and Bill Kininmonth’s book Cli-

President of ATSE. Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] of ATSE. President entists and policymakers who met in Villach, Austria, mate Change: a Natural Hazard which, also under the

in 1985 triggered such strong debate in the climate guise of sound science, sets out to discredit the IPCC community that the 1987 World Meteorological Con- assessment process and much of what is already well gress felt it necessary to establish a more broadly-based understood about the mechanisms of human-induced mechanism to provide governments with a comprehen- climate change in order to make his entirely valid and sive, expert, objective assessment of the contemporary important point that the world already faces a major

Former Director of the Bureau of Meteorology and President of the World World of the and President of Meteorology of the Bureau Director Former state of understanding of the science of climate change. challenge in coping with the future natural variability

Meteorological Organization, Meteorological Th at mechanism was to become the joint WMO of climate. (World Meteorological Organization)-UNEP (United It would greatly facilitate the informed use of rel- Nations Environment Programme) Intergovernmen- evant science in greenhouse policy development, and tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which was for- certainly reduce the massive public and political confu- mally established in 1988 and which, through its First sion on the nature and seriousness of the threat of hu- (1990), Second (1999) and Th ird (2001) Assessment man-induced climate change, if the IPCC assessment Reports, has provided the scientifi c basis for the 1992 process were better understood by those who publicly Framework Convention on Climate Change and most criticise it and if its reports were more carefully read of the subsequent national and international policy de- and more accurately quoted by those who invoke its velopment on the greenhouse issue. fi ndings in support of their respective policy agendas. Th e IPCC was very carefully designed to draw on To this end, it may be worth restating a few impor- the full spectrum of expert knowledge and opinion and tant points about the IPCC and how it works: to ensure scientifi c objectivity and freedom from politi- ¢ the IPCC is not a particular group of people with an cal infl uence on the assessment process, in order for all agenda – it is a scientifi c assessment process aimed at stakeholders to be assured that its advice would be the ensuring an authoritative, agenda-free evaluation of best that the international scientifi c community could the contemporary international state of knowledge provide. on the diff erent aspects of the climate change issue; It has been generally accepted by governments as ¢ the IPCC assessment process is both governmen- the authoritative source of policy-relevant, but policy- tal and scientifi c: the role of the governments is to neutral, advice on essentially all aspects of the climate ensure that the scientifi c assessment is carried out change issue but its operation has been widely criticised by the best experts in the world and that they are by many of those who do not like its fi ndings, and its protected from policy or political infl uence on their fi ndings have been widely misrepresented and misused fi ndings; the role of the scientists is to produce the by both greenhouse zealots and greenhouse sceptics in most up-to-date, informed, objective statement of the promotion of their respective agendas. the state of knowledge through the rigorous peer- For those who believe, as I do, that the role of sci- review methods of science; entists in public policy formation on complex and ¢ the task of the Lead Authors of IPCC reports is to www.atse.org.au

10 www.atse.org.au 11 c c integrity c – John Zillman uences which, in uences CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE s in ways that would add would that ways s in c arguments while others, while others, c arguments c integrity, thus far, of the of the far, thus c integrity, ective, process that has pro- has process that ective, all attempts by government government by all attempts SPM en represented as captive to envi- as captive represented en ndings discredit and wish to reports. its c consensus-forming mechanisms of the of the mechanisms c consensus-forming c integrity and objectivity IPCC of the and based;and cally, nal reports. nal IPCC of successive role been Chair- has the rst e IPCC is oft In summary, I regard the IPCC I regard the as an extremely summary, In Th Some governments, such as Saudi Arabia, have been as such Arabia, Saudi have Some governments, arguments could be taken into account, and have and have account, into could bearguments taken successfully headed off basis of po- on the to achievedelegations consensus litical considerations; majority of vast second of the been role the has the the committed to ensuring who remain delegations scientifi not been willing to join consensus in thus who have than rather which was seenon text to be politically, scientifi Lead Authors of the been role has the third the of the sessions intergovernmental in participating that conscious IPCC all been extremely who have and scientists credibility own astheir Lead Authors bewould based scientifi perceived on the fi of the the fi the Co-chairs all Group have who and Working men only scientifi that ensuring been in meticulous of wording the uence vided the world, for the past 15 years, with the best pos- the past 15 years, with for the world, vided the contemporary of the state sible assessments summary published of the change. Most of climate science of the ¢ ¢ demanding, highlybut eff ¢ true state of the science as accurately and precisely as as science accurately of the state true languageavailable will allow. ronmental, business or political interests by those who those by or political business interests ronmental, fi its do not like occasions of been on hundreds have there Certainly, and indi- lobbyists and business which environmental sought to IPCC at have sessions governments vidual infl policy own support to their agendas on greenhouse. pol- their to advance seeking in sophisticated extremely icy agendas scientifi through also, (and regrettably US as on a fewsuch the occasions, to use attempting been in fairly upfront have Australia) scientifi the IPCC have as there a political forum. But negotiation always been three countervailing infl and happening this prevented observation, have my scientifi the ensured have IPCC reports. - ect the the ect Summaries for for Summaries c assessments. s ( Fourth Assessment Fourth SPM task is not to present eir ed been to have properly ) on the basis of the full basis of the does) on the reports been involved process I have c assessment as scientifi agreedrst Lead Authors the by SPMs are prepared by the scientists and scientists the by prepared are SPMs s has been chosen with great care to refl great care beens has with chosen , the thoroughness, comprehensiveness and ob- and comprehensiveness thoroughness, , the is an exhaus- mechanism e IPCC assessment e draft e Th In many respects, the IPCC’s exhaustiveness is one exhaustiveness IPCC’s the respects, many In SPM Policy Makers Policy on of a political imposition overlay the not involve scientifi Lead Author-produced the Th basis in- by reviewed on a line-by-line and approved IPCC of the sessions work- or its tergovernmental govern- or more a hundred with usually groups, ing participating, a rigorous delegations through ment proposedprocess which in any changes text to the must be fi full of their report. summaries cally accurate contrary to frequent misrepresentation of the IPCC of the misrepresentation contrary to frequent of production process, the considered by independent Review Editors independent by who are considered of subject the matter in experts eminent themselves concerned; chapter and the their own views or the results of their own research; own of their results views or the own their (which become the assessments Lead Authors’ the full of the subject are reports) to an ex- chapters multi-stage peer and gov- comprehensive tremely review which process in every comment ernment of every be reviewer properly and every must critic – and certifi considered provide an authoritative summary of the state of state of the summary authoritative an provide knowledge published as the it emerges peer- from highlightingreviewed areas literature, of both the areas of disagree-and the literature the in consensus Th and uncertainty. ment

The IPCC assessment mechanism is an is mechanism assessment IPCC The process. exhausting and exhaustive ¢ ¢ tive and exhausting process and the IPCC Assessment IPCC and the process Assessment and exhausting tive obser- my in But, documents. Reports ponderous are every in 15 years of participation session over vation Group Working of its bar one and most Panel of the stages early to the of its up sessions Report far exceeded any have jectivity IPCC of the assessments scientifi other of. or aware in delegations fact While that the strengths. greatest of its on occasions, debated for hours have, and Lead Authors sometimes has or a single a single sentence word over science’, been used as a basis for ridicule of ‘consensus every a guarantee in that word view, my in it is rather, the CLIMATE CHANGE

criticism of the IPCC process has been ill-informed, in the use of language that has been employed in their misleading or factually wrong. preparation. Until now, at least, the IPCC reports, carefully read Complete information on the IPCC and its assessment reports is available on the IPCC Website www.ipcc.ch. Further elaboration of and accurately interpreted, have provided the most some of the author’s views on the role of the IPCC can be found reliable information that the totality of climate science in The IPCC Third Assessment Report on the Scientifi c Basis of Climate Change, Australian Journal of Environmental Management Vol 8, can produce on the issues associated with greenhouse September 2001, pp169-185. The Academy’s 2002 assessment of warming and climate change. But, unfortunately, much the fi ndings of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (2001) on climate change science is available in Focus 124 and the most recent ATSE of what has been said and written in support of green- Policy Statement on Climate Change can be found in Focus 132 house policy agendas (pro and con!) on the basis of the (May/June 2004).

IPCC reports has involved selective use and/or subtle Dr John W Zillman AO FTSE represented Australia at the misrepresentation of the IPCC fi ndings in ways which, intergovernmental Congress of the World Meteorological Organization which established the IPCC in 1987 and in my view, represent an unfortunate misuse of the subsequently served as Principal Delegate of Australia to the science. IPCC and as a member of the IPCC Bureau from 1994–2004. A I would like to urge those who quote or criticise the former Director of the Bureau of Meteorology and President of the World Meteorological Organization, he is currently IPCC reports to exercise the same care and precision President of the Academy.

ENERGY OPTIONS AND from their extensive coal deposits. Australia is likely to GREENHOUSE CONSEQUENCES continue to rely on its abundant coal and natural gas By Peter Cook deposits to meet its base load electricity generation ince the start of the industrial revolution, the requirements. Th erefore unless the nuclear option is

concentration of atmospheric CO2 has risen pursued with greater enthusiasm than is currently the from 270 parts per million to 380 parts per case in most countries, we have to assume growing use million, with the expectation that it will con- of fossil fuels. Stinue to rise for the remainder of this century, leading Th e most promising technology for signifi cantly to global warming and climate change. decreasing emissions from large-scale fossil fuel-based CBE FTSE

Th e projections of the International Energy Agen- stationary sources of CO2 (coal-fi red power stations, cy (IEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate cement plants, gas processing facilities, etc) involves

Change (IPCC) indicate that the use of fossil fuels will separation and capture of the CO2, compression and increase rather than decrease this century, with much of then storage of it in geological formations where it can- the increase in the developing world. Atmospheric CO not leak back into the atmosphere.

Dr PETER J COOK Dr PETER J COOK 2 concentrations could double by the end of the 21st cen- CO2 capture

tury, to more than 700ppm, unless action is taken. Capture of CO2 from natural gas is a low-cost and Th ere is a need to consider both mitigation and widely used technology at the present day (Figure 1).

adaptation responses. We must encourage greater en- Th ere are early opportunities for low-cost CO2 capture capture and storage. Email: [email protected] and storage. capture 2 ergy effi ciency, switching to low carbon-intensity fuels in urea, steel and cement plants, all of which produce

(including nuclear in many countries) and using more high CO2 emissions. But post-combustion capture of

renewable energy. But it appears unlikely that these ac- CO2 from fl ue gases emitted from conventional coal-

tions will produce the deep cuts to CO2 emissions that fi red power stations (Figure 1), while technically fea-

will be necessary if we are to stabilise atmospheric CO2 sible, is costly and results in additional power require- concentrations at a level of say 550ppm by the end of ments.

this century. Methods currently used for CO2 separation include Options such as radically decreasing world eco- the use of physical and chemical solvents, particularly nomic growth or denying developing countries the monoethanolamine (MEA); various types of mem- opportunity to have ready access to reliable electric- branes; adsorption onto zeolites and other solids and ity derived from fossil fuels are unrealistic and in some cryogenic separation. However, extensive research is Chief Executive of the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) and (CO2CRC) Technologies Gas Greenhouse for Centre Research of the Cooperative Chief Executive cases morally indefensible, unless developed countries under way and is likely to bring down post-combustion are prepared to apply those same actions to their econo- costs very signifi cantly in the future from the $40 to

coordinating Lead Author of the Special IPCC volume on CO volume of the Special IPCC Author Lead coordinating mies, which for the most part they are not. $50 per tonne of CO2 avoided that currently applies. Growing economies such as China and India are For example, burning coal in an oxygen-rich atmo- likely to meet much of their growing energy needs sphere produces a CO -rich emission stream, thereby

www.atse.org.au 2

12 www.atse.org.au 13 Figure 1: Figure Options for the capture of carbon dioxide Transport, Transport, inject & CO2 store Transport, inject & CO2 store Transport, inject & CO2 store Transport, inject & CO2 store stor- CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 2 Compress Compress Compress Compress Compress Compress Compress Compress e main storage main e has been has injected 2 elds and deep coals & impurities & impurities & impurities & impurities -CLIMATE CHANGE -CLIMATE Process heat Process Remove water water Remove Remove water water Remove Remove water water Remove Remove water water Remove will remain in a super- a in remain will 2 will then remain geological- 2 enhanced coal-bed methane) H2O 2 CO2 CO2 heat Capture Capture Capture Capture Recover Exhaust gas e CO e is captured from a major stationary stationary a major from is captured 2 uid, transported (mainly pipeline) by to CO2 Power Oxidise Capture Capture Remove Remove Remove Remove hydrogen impurities impurities er promise (Figure 2). Geosequestration uses uses 2). Geosequestration (Figure promise er LNG / pipeline quality gas Storage Globally there appears to be massive CO to be appears massive Globally there In some instances the CO the some instances In 2 into deep geologicalinto 1970s, late the since formations as part oil of enhanced America North in particularly critical state; some of it will go into solution in ground state; ground in critical some of it will go solution into components some will with react time and over water, bedrock the in mineral carbonates. to form CO CO the Once off also technologysafe, proven oil and gas the industry that past 50 years. CO usedhas for the source of emissions, it is compressed, usually to a dense to a dense usually it is compressed, of emissions, source supercritical fl deep injected suitable and then into location a suitable of 800 to 1000 depths at (sediments) rock formations Th or greater. metres rocks (geosequestered) the in ly stored years for many for geological– essentially time. age sedimentary in potential basins. Th capacity to be appears deep in saline geological res- ervoirs, depleted oil and gas but fi (accompanied CO by orous R&D programs aimed at bringing down costs are programs R&D are orous aimed costs bringing down at and already technology way under under are roadmaps hy- the towards us to take will help that development drogen economy. fuel heat heat

Air, O2 Air, Recover Recover Remove Remove Compress Compress 2 impurities Process heat Process Nitrogen (Figure (Figure Steam, air, O2 air, Steam, Hydrogen 2 O2 is could is Air fuel fuel fuel unit React Power Power heat Process Oxidise Oxidise Provide oxidant Remove Remove cant costs as- costs cant impurities Air separation Air CO2 fuel fuel fuel cation Combined Cycle Combined Cycle cation Prepare Prepare Prepare Capture Capture signifi are ere red power generation sys- generation red power costs. decrease capture cantly gas fuel fuel fuel based based based Natural Carbon- Carbon- Carbon- from non-stationary sources such as such mo- sources non-stationary from capture costs. Th costs. capture 2 2 technical to large are impediments and cost ere Th Similarly, pre-combustion capture of CO capture pre-combustion Similarly, cent 20 to 25 per that to remember is important It tor vehicles, but it is possible to use electric cars (with cars (with electric it is possible to use but tor vehicles, or sources) electricity generated stationary the from generated hydrogen centrally the hydrogen cars (with fuels) fossil accompaniedfrom at geosequestration by energy centralised Th the facility. production (and non-polluting) emission near-zero vehic- provide future. ular in the transport sociated with oxygen separation. Nonetheless oxyfuels Nonetheless sociated oxygen separation. with and develop- of research area a promising are systems which could signifiment or gas-fi coal- 1) involving Gasifi as such Integrated tems very costs con- capture cut potentially emissions, the in to be appear high costs initial capital the but siderably, is required work before there development and more of IGCC application will be to electricity widespread or hydrogen production. generation of global and obvi- related to transport are emissions transport-re- then emissions, to stabilise are if we ously is not possible be to decreased. must lated emissions It CO capture (IGCC) systems which produce concentrations of CO (IGCC) which concentrations produce systems cutting COcutting Oxy-fuels Pre-combustion of CO2 capture (IGCC) ELECTRICITY GENERATION / HYDROGEN PRODUCTION HYDROGEN / ELECTRICITY GENERATION Post-combustion of CO2 capture NATURAL GAS PROCESSING GAS NATURAL Example of natural processsing gas with high content CO2 scale take-up of hydrogen or electric cars, but again cars, but or electric of hydrogen vig-scale take-up CLIMATE CHANGE

Geological storage options for CO2 industries so that they can collectively 1 Depleted oil and gas reservoirs address capture and storage issues in a 2. Use of CO2 in enhanced oil recovery 3. Deep unused saline water-saturated reservoir rocks cost-eff ective manner that is economi- 4. Deep unmineable coal seams cally and environmentally sustainable. 5. Use of CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery 6. Other suggested options (basalts, oil shales, cavities) Th ere is a need to more fully char-

acterise potential CO2 storage sites which will require a detailed geological investigation. We must also improve our capacity to monitor and verify the eff ectiveness of storage in order to con- vince the public that geosequestration is a sustainable mitigation option. Additionally, it is essential to have an appropriate regulatory regime and clarity on long-term liability issues in order to ensure public confi dence in the technology. But none of these

Figure 2: challenges are seen as representing ma- Options for recovery and acid gas injection projects. Th ere is strong jor ‘show-stoppers’ and progressively more developed the geological storage (geo- evidence from existing natural gas storage projects and and developing countries are looking to greenhouse sequestration) from natural petroleum and CO2 systems, that stored gas technologies, particularly geosequestration, to play of carbon dioxide. CO2 is most unlikely to leak to the surface, provided a major part in achieving deep cuts in greenhouse gas the geological storage site is chosen carefully. emissions.

In other words, CO2 can be safely stored in the sub- Dr Peter J Cook CBE FTSE is the Chief Executive of the surface for thousands of years and longer. Storage costs Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas appear to be on average around $10 or less a tonne of Technologies (CO2CRC). He has had a distinguished career in Australia and internationally as a Researcher, a Senior CO2 avoided depending on the distance between the Executive and a Consultant. He is coordinating Lead Author of the Special IPCC volume on CO2 capture and storage and a CO2 source and the storage site. In the longer term the aim must be to develop ‘zero participant in the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum. He has published more than 130 publications on resource,

emission hubs’ that will bring together CO2-emitting energy, environmental and sustainability issues.

CLIMATE CHANGE – Th e concept is simple but the climate system A LAYMAN’S VIEW is complex. Experts diff er on many aspects of it. By Sir Arvi Parbo Th ere are legitimate diff erences in assessment and he Earth’s climate has been changing, drasti- interpretation of factual evidence. Computer models cally at times, ever since the planet started to designed to simulate the system and look into the take solid shape some 4000 million years ago. future are questioned, including for their inability to It will continue to change due to forces beyond adequately allow for all the processes causing internal Tour control. Th e question being debated today is not climate variability. Th e opportunity for diff erent whether we can stop climate change as some activists perceptions increases enormously when judgments would have it, but and projections are made. ¢ whether we have entered a period of sustained Politics, ideology, personal, professional and com- global warming; mercial interests and beliefs and other non-scientifi c ¢ to what extent this is caused by an increasing considerations become involved. Trying as a layman to percentage of ‘greenhouse gases’ (in particular listen with an open (but critical) mind to all the argu- carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere due to human ments and views has been a confusing and frustrating ex- activity; perience. Th is is not unique to climate change; it seems ¢ what the consequences of such warming are likely to happen with all major issues involving science and to be; and technology. It is probably naïve to expect anything else. ¢ what could and should be done about it. Th e Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change www.atse.org.au

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www.atse.org.au 15

Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering 1995–97. Email: [email protected] Email: 1995–97. Engineering and Sciences Technological of Academy

Formerly Managing Director of Western Mining Corporation and President of the the of President and Corporation Mining Western of Director Managing Formerly

Sir ARVI PARBO ARVI Sir

AC Kt FTSE FTSE Kt AC a warm- from er t from it. We do it. We t from CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE erent parts of the world. world. of the parts erent c Partnership all the important all important the c Partnership c Partnership for Clean Develop- for Clean c Partnership of achieving ma- is no practical way ere ect means that warming will continue for will continue warming ect that means what that challenge e main is to ensure now is process could be now stopped only the by believers the whether but will continue, e debate Asia-Pacifi e with problems the e good whatever news is that, Th political the that such realities are Meanwhile, Th Technology, rather than world bureaucracy, is the is the bureaucracy, world than rather Technology, it Regardless is done to reduce emissions, of what does not mean global in increase An temperature Th Sir Arvi Parbo AC Kt FTSE, a mining engineer, spent his spent a mining engineer, Kt FTSE, AC Sir Arvi Parbo Mining Corporation, Western mostly with life working as Managing Director in 1990 and Chairman in 1999. retiring in also a directorHe was of a number of other companies including Chairman of Alcoa the US and Germany, Australia, of the Australian President He was and BHP Ltd. of Australia and Engineering from Sciences Technological of Academy 1995–97. or the sceptics will eventually be proven right or wheth- will be eventually proven sceptics or the will bebetween, in answer somewhere the remains er to be seen. emis- been to reduce initiated man-made have moves sions. Th of globalonset protocol cooling. Kyoto Between the Asia-Pacifi and the ongoing debate the sense that In involved. are countries re- help it may that extent to the only relevant is now doubt and guide in down points further solve actions line. Th the sense. is done is practical and makes a warmer world, these must be greatly preferable to the to the preferable be greatly must these world, a warmer were ice age of another onset which some scientists 1970s. as the in as about recently concerned ment and Climate between Aus- US, China, India, the and Climate ment make good does To make sense. Korea and South tralia developed major real progress, the both and developing have must taken economies be Actions involved. must economicdue regard to their consequences. problems are if there solution longer-term likely most concentrations atmospheric if increased ahead. But warming, reason the for the are of carbon the dioxide eff time-lag stopped if all even are time emissions some considerable Th immediately. short the term. in jor reductions is a need there to devote much that seems therefore climate, to a warmer to adaptation attention more should it occur. diff in means this tell what us is there that pointed out have scientists climate Eminent to predict cli-minimal ability changes the in present at regional the at consequences) their (and therefore mate and local level. Some regions would suff would benefi while others climate er balance sheet the Much look would like. what not know this. to be done to reallyunderstand remains work en e test test e e image of e two sides ect. ect. er. Th er. orts to assess the the assess to orts science is is how c process, anything c process, anything erent views, a favourite views, a favourite erent culty projections with language. emotive in en not been is has helpful in been has apparent little ere cantly contributing to these. to these. contributing cantly range challenging from the e criticisms erences or agree to diff airs. While not making judgments on the on the judgments airs. While not making c issues, the Committee is critical of aspects Committee critical is of the c issues, also support a num- but is view widespread has majority of people informa- e vast their receive Th Th One of the few independent eff few independent of the One methodologyQuite the apart from calcu- of these As I understand the scientifi the As I understand been has debate of the much however, Regrettably, device in politics to divert attention from the weakness weakness the from device politics in divert to attention arguments. of one’s Worse than that, there have been attempts to person- been attempts have there that, than Worse ally diff holding discredit those mostly talk past each other, oft talk past each other, mostly for one hundred years ahead. It may be good may salesman- years ahead. It for one hundred is it science? but attention, people’s ship for catching me to view taught has of painfulA lifetime experience projections, shorter predictions and forecasts for much a great dealperiods with of caution. tion through the media. the through tion Th media most sto- contrary, clarifying the On issues. the and oft on one side or another partisan clearly are ries exaggeratedobviously misleading. or even Th to this. itself and frying lends readily a melting world been has stands matter the evidence and review where Select of Lords Committee on Eco- House the by made nomic Aff scientifi IPCC the basis on which the future including process, projected the in- (and therefore scenarios emissions calculated, are a matter temperatures) future in creases and Mr. Henderson David initially raised Professor by IPCC the how will to this be responds Just Castles. Ian credibility of the a test process. of the great diffi have I myself lations, ber of critics. Th of critics. ber validity of particular aspects IPCC of the to reports observedbeen not has the warming that maintaining greenhouse the caused by eff primarily should be open to questioning. Th good are ques- to the there answers progress. If makes there can be If arguments settled on merit. the tions, Th be uncertainty. must there no clear answers, are an- can be satisfactorily criticisms of the many is how remains. uncertainty much and how swered conducted on party believersthe and are lines: there Th sceptics. the are there review evidence, con- the to dispassionately attempt and either arguments respective the of merits the sider diff the resolve (IPCC) has come to the view that most of the warm- the of most (IPCC) view that come to the has been due to in- likely past most 50 years has the in ing human and that creased greenhouse gas concentrations signifi are activities THE FUTURE OF ENERGY Manipulating Australia’s energy resource mix

By John Sligar though the market is still developing. It has resulted very economy has an energy resource mix based in signifi cant reduction in electricity price with corre- upon indigenous and imported energy resourc- sponding improvement in the competitiveness of Aus- es. In economies such as Japan the mix is based tralia in the international marketplace. heavily upon imported energy resources. In A result of this competitiveness is loss of direct EAustralia the balance is much more towards indigenous government control over the energy resource mix for resources. In addition, Australia has assisted those less the industry. A competitive market requires that par- fortunate economies, such as Japan, by providing a ma- ticipants be allowed to install the most appropriate new FTSE FTSE jor contribution to their energy security. generation or transmission capacity to ensure contin- Th e study of all energy resources in Australia is a ued eff ective competition, attractive electricity prices daunting task so this contribution will concentrate on for investment and promotion of new jobs and a better the largest energy converter, the electric power indus- quality of life for the population. try. Australia has developed an enviable reputation for At about the same time the question of climate

Dr N JOHN SLIGAR inexpensive electricity provided by government run change has moved from a scientifi c matter to one for generation and transmission organisations. With few government and investors to add to their considera-

c Power. Email: [email protected] c Power. exceptions governments have made decisions on new tions of risk when evaluating proposed infrastructure Director of Sligar and Associates; formerly formerly of Sligar and Associates; Director power generation plant with a resulting energy resource in the electricity industry. Risk analysis is a necessary mix for the industry in Australia. component of any decision to invest and is more im- Th e present energy resource mix has developed portant in this industry because of the expected long- on an economic basis and is predominantly fossil-re- term eff ectiveness of its assets. Investment is based upon

Cheif Scientist of Pacifi sourced. Every potential energy resource has natural predictions of how the industry will alter over the life advantages and disadvantages that must be taken into of a proposed asset. account in developing a long-term strategy. Some en- As the urgency of action with respect to climate ergy resources also have limitations with respect to the change is promoted by government greater notice will maximum proportion which can be accepted into the be taken by electricity industry investors, whether gov- power system. ernment or private. Unless government action is taken, Power stations of whatever type and using any ener- in the form of incentives, the energy resource mix will gy resource have a long life. As an asset, a power station move in a direction to minimise power prices and investment is likely to provide useful returns for up- maintain adequate profi ts for participants to remain in wards of 50 years. Th is allows for long-term repayment the industry. Australia has suff ered a number of waves of debt and eff ective utilisation of the asset. However, of investment and ‘sell-off s’ in the industry because of it does not allow for a rapid change in the mix of energy perceived inadequate profi ts for the risk involved. resources without a consequent stranding of power sta- If governments, whether federal or state or both, tion assets and consequential fi nancial loss. decide to infl uence the direction of the energy resource Recently two new factors have arisen that will mix for this industry it will need to be eff ected in a change the existing energy resource mix signifi cantly. manner that does not destroy the competitive nature Th ese are the government-supported development of of the industry. Previously, with almost monopoly con- a competitive electricity market and the natural threat trol, governments could dictate the required energy posed by climate change. Both will have a profound ef- resource mix to their respective government-control- fect on the quality of life of the average Australian. led generators. Now the same desired action can be Th e competitive electricity market was introduced infl uenced by government-regulated incentives of one through the combined eff orts of the federal and state sort or another, preferably without interfering with the governments. Independent organisations and regula- valuable competitive situation and resulting quality of tors have been set up and are functioning well even life. www.atse.org.au

16

www.atse.org.au 17

currently consulting on the disposal of radioactive waste. Email: [email protected] [email protected] Email: waste. radioactive of disposal the on consulting currently

Formerly Chairman of the London-based Uranium Institute (now World’s Nuclear Association); Association); Nuclear World’s (now Institute Uranium London-based the of Chairman Formerly

Dr IAN J DUNCAN DUNCAN J IAN Dr FTSE FTSE

ecting c and in- (L-l ILW) (L-l ILW) (S-l ILW) (S-l ILW) ese wastes wastes ese cient cient waste ning ning the likely c nuclides that e National Electricity National e cation applies to radionu- applies cation fuel re- HIFAR e reprocessed (HLW) includes used includes fuel from (HLW) lters and specifilters THE FUTURE OF ENERGY OF FUTURE THE ve-part categorisation: ve-part (LLW) includes industrial instru- industrial includes (LLW) cation allows for effi cation Securing Australia’s Energy Future Australia’s Securing as category, high this it has into ts ective incentive packages; incentive and,ective to c Power. c (EW) level radio- low with is waste is classifi is cant changes required are cant energy the in e IAEA classifi IAEA e e white paper paper white e Long-lived Intermediate-Level Waste Intermediate-Level Long-lived Short-lived Intermediate-Level Waste Short-lived Intermediate-Level Exempt Waste Exempt Waste Low-Level Waste High-Level Th Th signifi If ese need to be disposed designated of in repositories Dr John Sligar FTSE is the Director of Sligar and Associates, is the Director of Sligar and Associates, Dr John Sligar FTSE competitive specialising in the future group a consulting needs of various energy He has reviewed electricity market. the aid projects for and conducted overseas economies previously and the UNDP and was Government Australian Chief Scientist of Pacifi includes machinery, fi machinery, includes such as Western Australia’s Mount Walton East. Walton Mount Australia’s assuch Western and medical, wastes hospital includes scientifi Th sources. dustrial 30 years. than of less half-lives clides having for public and environment the shieldingrequire from half-lives have elements these periods.long Typically 30 years. Th than greater ergy Agency (IAEA) fi background. Th to natural activity – nearer material radioactive (including occurring naturally – NORM) Earth. to the Grains be safely returned may category. of monazite this in mineral in sands are detectors, clothing, smoke and glassware. paper ments, Th to ANSTOturned fi is not heat-generating. life,activity and a long but reprocessing its from wastes reactors, generating power of high has and some military concentrations It wastes. initially requir- short-lived and long-lived radioactivity, shielding. requiring cooling and always ing provided a useful starting point in defi in point provided a useful starting Th near future. the in situation (NEMMCO) Company pro- Management Market forwardduces a 10-year prediction every year to alert generation industry of likely the in all interested those opportunities.and transmission electricity industry, Australian mix for the resource forward the pre- to extend now be taken must action and demand; servicediction to decide supply of likely desired energyupon the mix direc- strategic resource develop and eff tion aff without direction desired mix the in the move while minimising resulting competitiveness, Australia’s assets. stranded management and recognises that time is an element is an element and recognises time management that er- is is not pro- is baseplant load also suggests erentiation ective in encouraging in- cation is not adequate for is not adequate cation been ef- less e signals have

because radioactivity was made erentiation classifi is broad uclear waste is a generic term that covers all covers that term is a generic uclear waste are wastes Such waste. of radioactive forms industrynot only nuclear generated the by also medical,but by manufactur- industrial,

is diff is insensi- far more are incentives ese government it diff when an error industry made e nuclear signals provides electricity market e competitive Th Th At the moment there are a number of government of government a number are there moment the At Th Th public diff mind, the the In been very e signals eff have DEALING WITH AUSTRALIA’S WITH DEALING AUSTRALIA’S WASTE NUCLEAR

Types of nuclear waste Types radioactivity commonly are designated their by Wastes (LLW), waste categories, low-level three divided into and high-level waste (ILW) waste intermediate-level Th (HLW). By Ian Duncan By Ian N ing and agricultural activities. In this article nuclear nuclear article this In and agriculturaling activities. interchangeable. are waste and radioactive waste tive tools for manipulating energy tools mix for manipulating than tive resource will and of new need generation direct control to be care. with exercised Renewable Energy Mandated as such the initiatives (MRET) having which are action, in scheme Target modifyingvarying degrees in success of energy the re- mix.source modern waste management, and the more advanced advanced more and the management, waste modern En- Atomic International the prefer organisations now entiated its wastes from society’s other potentially haz- potentially other society’s from wastes its entiated We of these. thousands are – and there wastes ardous know do we but wastes to nuclear happens what know wastes? toxic to other happens what not. chemical whereas toxicity may time decays with is not and therefore Some decay other is very but rapid aligns waste. chemical with toxic more for investors to read and act upon to provide new plant. new plant. and act upon to provide read to for investors Th plant peak that plant, to provide load generation vestors which service is in necessary for short periods to supply Th peaks public demand. in for continuous base load plant promoting in fective remain- governments for some state except operation, Th business. generation the in ing the is consequently and supply majority of the the vides to of consequence emission to any contributor major change. or to climate population health of the the that all nuclear wastes are equally are Th all hazardous. wastes nuclear that true. THE FUTURE OF ENERGY

in waste disposal. Th at is, a waste’s characteristics are FIGURE 1: Inventory of LLW and S-1 ILW by state time-dependent. Waste disposal is four- dimensional, it State Estimated volume m3 involves both space and time. South Australia 2,228 The ‘laws’ of waste disposal Victoria 33 Waste can change physically, chemically and biologi- New South Wales 1,335 cally with the passage of time. Th e laws of nature apply Queensland 45 to waste disposal as they do to all other matter. Four Tasmania 15 derivatives of these laws are relevant: Australian Capital Territory 8 1 all processes produce energy and/or material waste; Northern Territory 16 2 all waste becomes part of the earth, particularly the Western Australia Disposed of at Mount Walton East biosphere; that part of air, water and rock that sup- Australia total 3680 port life; Based on DEST National Radioactive Waste Repository Draft EIS 3 all wastes change character with time, and usually di- lute or disperse without becoming a hazard to life or environment; and FIGURE 2: Inventory of L-1 ILW 4 the management of waste requires not just a place to Source Estimated volume m3 put the waste, but also the time for it to change from ANSTO 205 being hazardous to benign. Industry – historical waste 165 Australia’s radioactive waste States and territories 100 Currently Australia’s radioactive waste is small in vol- Australian Government agencies 35 ume and does not include HLW. Nuclear power will Total 505 generate additional LLW and ILW and for the fi rst Normal annual arising <10 time introduce HLW. Without nuclear power, low and Based on DEST National Radioactive Waste Repository Draft EIS intermediate level wastes will continue to accumulate anyway. Australia is fortunate in having immense areas of rock in locations that are sparsely populated and Th e decommissioning of ANSTO’s HIFAR reactor semi-arid that could be suitable for waste repositories. and the packaging from the fuel for the replacement re- Th e process of repository site selection must change actor will add to the volume of LLW and ILW waste. from being a ‘top down’ declaration by industry or gov- Consideration of Long-lived ILW and HLW intro- ernment, to a process that allows communities to assess duces a fi ft h derivative: the risks and to volunteer to host a repository. When thinking ahead about the well-being of fam- Most countries have tried the top down DAD ily and environment, most people have a time horizon technique (Decide, Announce and Defend) only to no greater than the life of their grandchildren. fi nd that in a democracy such attempts usually lead to Note the mismatch between the public’s temporal DADA (Decide, Announce, Defend and Abandon). comfort zone (bounded by the lives of grandchildren) Th ere are now, however, examples of the Volun- and the time requirements for the containment of long- tary-Choice Process in the nuclear and petrochemical lived wastes (thousands of years). Th ere is however a industries. Australia’s current site selection process for way through this apparent impasse. a LLW repository in the Northern Territory is much For long-lived wastes, the public is more likely to more aware of public input than it was in previous at- accept the concept of interim storage, followed by a fi - tempts although it has yet to go to a full Voluntary- nal repository that will allow for approved retrieval of Choice Process. waste if necessary. Situations that could lead to retrieval Th e inventory of LLW and S-l ILW by state is in include: Figure 1. ¢ a change in economics where used fuel becomes Australia also has Long-lived Intermediate Level potential fuel; Waste. Again, the volumes are relatively small. Th ese ¢ a change in desired land use; wastes arise mainly from ANSTO but states, territo- ¢ an apparent failure of the containment or structure ries and Commonwealth agencies also produce some. of the repository; or Th e returned reprocessed HIFAR used fuel is in this ¢ a better containment technology. category. Eff orts by the Australian Government to provide Th e inventory of L-l ILW is in Figure 2. interim storage for ILW are logical. Establishment of a www.atse.org.au

18 www.atse.org.au 19 nal disposal nal – POSIVA Finland Finland – POSIVA A representative A representative fuel bundle inside shown an inner nodular cast-iron component alongside the outer copper of a container fi canister in the VLJ repository in Okiluoto, Finland. Aus- e Western ve years. If then agreed, then years. If ve waste. nuclear of cations THE FUTURE OF ENERGY OF FUTURE THE Used (spent) fuel would be transferred to water- fuel would be (spent) transferred Used State and federal de- encouraging politicians are State might way get 2015 construction by under Perhaps covering Queensland, New South Wales, ACT, Victo- ACT, Wales, South Queensland, New covering large is now enough to accom- Australia and South ria modate two reactors. Th such or more tralian grid is too small to support of this generators being developed are plants and, smaller size. However, in could see power demand, nuclear to a growing linked mid-century. before well West the proc- and that power and nuclear uranium about bate could goess to fi on for three would be studies all requiredfurther to determine social, technical, and economicenvironmental, siting issues. on nu- some dependence could 2023 we have and by the be in an increase will then so, there If clear power. of all arising classifi annual h re- h ft cation of cation will is demand cient cient capacity for about electrical gride integrated ected electrifi the growth, population by Modern nuclear generators are large are generators nuclear scale in and Modern What if Australia adopts nuclear power genera- power nuclear adopts if Australia What global about concern warming, growing and With for options the discussing too now are Australians 1.25 million people). Th actor will be 1600MWe; suffi actor will be 1600MWe; be aff be for air-conditioning and possibly demands transport, and hydrogen production. desalination fi best suited (Finland’s for base load generation repository that allows for retrieval also allows logic,repository has for retrieval that it but socialis a complex and technical issue. tion? an in- probably is most precursor its recognition that is once world the carbon dioxide, atmospheric in crease on nuclear dependence again a greater considering power. Th electricity demand. future meeting THE FUTURE OF ENERGY

FIGURE 3: Nuclear wastes from a 1500MWe reactor power, for whatever reason, normally use the issue as a Waste Volume m3/year tool. Due to global progress and example, the disposal LLW 300 of nuclear waste need not be a show-stopper for nuclear ILW 105 power in Australia. HLW – not reprocessed 15 Conclusion or, HLW reprocessed 3.75 Th e Australian Government is doing the right thing for the disposal of Exempt and LLW. Th at the process of siting has been frustrated in the states is not an indica- cooled ponds on the reactor site and remain there for tion of intractable technical, temporal or spatial issues. some years. If the direct disposal (non-reprocessing) Where state governments have legislated against dis- route is chosen, the used fuel would be encapsulated posal, it is not due to latent risk but more to hometown and air-cooled for perhaps a further 20 years. Ulti- political expediency. mately the containers, clad in steel and copper, would Th e management of short-lived and long-lived ILW become available for interim storage as a step towards by its placement in a secure interim facility is sound fi nal disposal or would go directly to fi nal disposal. and consistent with public opinion. People want to Nuclear wastes arising from a 1500 MWe reactor see LLW and ILW removed from scattered locations, per year are in Figure 3. centralised, safely managed and secure. Th ere are prec- At the end of commercial life, nuclear power reac- edents for the direct disposal of both of these classes of tors are decommissioned and all fuel is removed. Con- waste. For ILW, the public seems to resist fi nal disposal sistent with safe working conditions, the reactor and at this time but supports an interim facility. ancillary equipment are dismantled over the following If Australia adopts nuclear power, there will be decades. an increase in the amounts of waste in each category. Th is process is well understood, as many of the However, we have the time, space and technology to ac- world’s original reactors have reached the end of their commodate these wastes. We have the benefi t of prec- lives and have been removed/or are being removed. Th e edents established by many other countries. precise quantities of materials that could be recycled or Th ere is no justifi cation for the importation of oth- need disposal would be quantifi ed during any compre- er countries’ radioactive waste, nor for participation in hensive debate and at the feasibility stage. Currently, any so called ‘international attempts’ at nuclear waste commercial reactors have a life expectancy of 40 years disposal. but this is gradually being extended. Our moral obligation is to properly dispose of our It should be pointed out that many countries have own waste and that is achievable. progressed to the point where they have large nuclear Further reading: programs and have accommodated all LLW and ILW Australia; Leading information source on uranium and global wastes. Th e Scandinavian countries, followed by France nuclear energy: www.uic.com.au/index.htm and the US are the most advanced in the disposal of Finland; Nuclear waste management and disposal: www.posiva.fi /englanti/ HLW. Australia will be able to adopt their technology Sweden; Nuclear waste management and disposal: and methods. www.skb.se/default____8563.aspx World; Source of uranium and nuclear information: Th e total cost for this ‘backend’ of nuclear power www.world-nuclear.org/ generation would be incorporated in the selling price of its electricity. Th e same cannot be said for fossil-fuelled Dr Ian J Duncan FTSE was General Manager of the large WMC Olympic Dam copper, uranium, gold and silver operation in electricity generation. South Australia and Chairman of the London-based Uranium Th e disposal of all nuclear waste will be one of the Institute (now World’s Nuclear Association) 1995–96. Since essential topics examined and debated in any Austral- retirement he completed a doctorate at Oxford University on the interface between society and the disposal of radioactive ian study on nuclear power. Th ose opposing nuclear waste and now consults in this fi eld. Due to global progress and example, the disposal of nuclear waste need not be a show-

– Ian Duncan www.atse.org.au stopper for nuclear power in Australia.

20 www.atse.org.au 21 erent. erent. FTSE, [email protected] FTSE, [email protected] AM FTSE, [email protected] AM Dr John P Friend LETTERS TO THE THE EDITOR TO LETTERS Mr Keith F Alder Mr Keith Dr Higgins’s fi eld peas story On the is extremely instructive. fi Dr Higgins’s cant concern in as a signifi allergies of food The emergence has also breeding that traditional plant It should not be forgotten and environmental safety comprehensive as the need for well As ts of increasing view that the benefi I am of the Overall, However, my real concern is somewhat diff in this debate real my However, We can supply ideal sites for the multinational fuel cycle plants for can supply ideal sites We opponents is that by nuclear A major point that is often ignored capacity Korea, in Japan, Nuclear power is being increased is a there start Perhaps to ciently entrepreneurial the ball rolling. soy is by far the largest GM crop internationally, with more than 100 with more internationally, GM crop soy is by far the largest for with no reported health issues, pa being produced million tonnes man or beast. introductions of one hand it shows once again that unanticipated On the other it gene transfer. of allergenicity can occur in the process all novel for now in place programs screening shows that the safety such risks the consumer. can mitigate to including GM ones, foods, phenomenon, with recent countries is a relatively developed examples of peanut intolerance to media attention increasing eld pea storyto the can also contribute the fi Unfortunately, etc. because of this heightened, suspicions of GM foods consumer’s or intolerances. allergies concern about food exaggerated, probably compounds, of toxic cultivars with unacceptable levels generated cucurbatins in squash and in potatoes, levels exampleg solanine for psoralens in celery; not have products plant breeding of traditional evaluation of safety still not subject the same level to been and are gradually This again should lead the consumer to GM foods. as are of the new technology. accepting of the fruits become more WHO has also recommended the established, well already testing, with should be associated that the introduction of GM crops ongoing surveillance possible long-term deleterious health or of any impacts. I certainlyenvironmental support such long-term initiatives. risks and perceived far outweigh any of GM foods introduction in penalising Australia’s seems little logic There should be supported. farmers by continuing with the state-based moratoria on such been canola when very as GM of these have crops volumes large almost 10 years. for internationally traded and consumed safely I believe that Australia is, once again, ignoring an outstanding an outstanding ignoring once again, is, Australia that I believe opportunity on uranium. based major industrial development for in development In growth our history had tremendous have we should be planning now to We gold and iron. two metals, through of the metal uranium and become take of our resources advantage particularlythe major world nuclear fuel, supplier of our Asian to neighbours. non- to relating reasons for in future be favoured to sure that are safeguards. proliferation think may we Whatever now. it is all happening, their views, despite it is a fact that the power, ts of nuclear about the risks and benefi it all, heard power-generating utilities of our Eastern neighbours have stations. building nuclear power and assessed it, and they are fuel in reactor They will need China, India and Pakistan. Taiwan, for ts be enormousbenefi would and there amounts, increasing needed is someone What is be the suppliers. we should Australia suffi the Academy. for there role usion 139. The 139. Focus 138 put no new Focus 139). I note their disappointment 139). I note Focus The benefi ts of GM foods are more strongly perceived in perceived strongly more foods are ts of GM The benefi the suspicious convince to however, It here, is much harder In of GM soy bean commercialisation, 1996, at the beginning I was disappointed in the anti-nuclear arguments presented, presented, in the anti-nuclear arguments I was disappointed to the fuel input red) power about the (fossil-fi Arguments erent strategies for soy GM were developed; today of course GM of today developed; soy GM were for strategies erent GM TECHNOLOGY THE FOR TECHNOLOGY GM BENEFIT CONSUMER’S NUCLEAR FUEL SUPPLIER SUPPLIER FUEL NUCLEAR WORLD THE TO Sir, I read with interest the range of opinions about genetically the range of with interest I read Sir, in Australian economy role in the food’s ed modifi eight articles all appear to lend support, sometimes heavily qualifi ed, ed, eight articles lend support, all appear to qualifi sometimes heavily the desirability to of opening up the application of GM technology support I also strongly the ongoing sector. agribusiness in Australia’s on an international basis including introduction of such technology like emphasise the following. and would to in Australia needs in terms of urgent countries because of more developing availability and nutritional In content. food such countries a greater nancial number of farmers the fi and consumers will be exposed to such ts of herbicide/insect-resistant crops benefi and environmental corn or canola. In countries Australia developed such as as soy, environment nancial) and the to the farmer ts (fi demonstrable benefi with GM cotton. occurred have fl ow-on of possible as any ciary, is a benefi consumer that he too at the point of retail production costs is generally invisible lower It take with omega 3 purchase. may the introduction of GM grains increasingly to as an alternative example, fatty for acids included, of cost-conscious the to open the eyes to consumers sh, fi expensive the attractiveness of nutritionally Here technology. ts of this benefi than the the consumer will be an easier sell to enhanced foods t of seeing a substantial benefi are fact producers that cotton (GM). BT cotton $350/hectare in growing approximately used as when Brazil nuts were was transferred a major allergen the nutritional quality improve genetic material of to a source The consequence of this was that animal feed. of soybeans for and was mandated of GM foods allergenicity testing comprehensive diff Sir, I read the contributions by Charters, Lowe, and Blakey the to the contributions by Charters, I read Lowe, Sir, ( debate nuclear energy that the proponents of nuclear energy in of nuclear energy that the proponents arguments in favour – perhaps because there may be none, and the be none, may – perhaps because there in favour arguments still true. old ones are still of which are and many years, for been around all of which have now changed in both the technology have based on situations that reactors power numbers of nuclear example, For and the industry. rst large the fi – and decontaminated been decommissioned have now on a is ‘Shippingport’, in the US, operate to reactor power former large High Vrain, a Fort St So is (fully clean) site. eld’ fi ‘green Gas-Cooled in the US. Dismantling of obsolete reactor Temperature and the UK and has Germany, advanced in France, stations is also well unexpected problems. not presented on the energy-hungrycycle rest gaseous diff still seem to now being superseded by gas centrifuge plants. enrichment process, matters costing of solar and wind generation often ignores Also, large (and costs) of integrating of availability the problems and grid. a power into sources numbers of unreliable GM FOODS Australia’s regulatory system for gene technology

By Sue Meek peutic Goods Administration (TGA) that authorises Governance of the regulatory system the use of human medicines and medical devices; the for gene technology National Industrial Chemicals and Notifi cation Assess- he Commonwealth Gene Technology Act 2000 ment Scheme (NICNAS) which oversights the intro- (the Act), which came into eff ect on 21 June duction of industrial chemicals; the National Health 2001, was developed cooperatively by all Aus- and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) that advis- tralian jurisdictions and involved extensive con- es on gene therapy trials and regulates research with hu- Tsultation with all major stakeholders. Th is included the man embryos; and the Australian Quarantine Inspec- FTSE FTSE general public, as well as research institutions, universi- tion Service (AQIS) that controls imports that pose a ties, hospitals, companies and organisations represent- pest or disease risk into Australia. ing industry, consumer and environmental groups. Th e Regulator is required to liaise closely with Th e Act, associated Gene Technology Regulations other regulators to ensure the identifi cation, evaluation Dr SUE MEEK 2001, an inter-governmental agreement signed by all and management of risks that may be associated with jurisdictions and corresponding State and Territory the intentional release of GMOs into the environment Email: [email protected] legislation comprise the nationally consistent regula- (see below). Consequential amendments made to the tory system. legislation of those authorities oblige them to consult Th e Act establishes the Gene Technology Ministe- the Regulator in their assessment of GM products and rial Council (GTMC) to oversight the implementation to inform the Regulator if approvals are issued. Th is Australia’s inaugural Gene Technology Regulator. Regulator. Technology inaugural Gene Australia’s of the regulatory system, and a statutory offi ce holder, enables the Regulator to fulfi l a statutory obligation to the Gene Technology Regulator (the Regulator), who maintain a public record of GMOs and GM product reports directly to the Australian Parliament. Th e Reg- approvals. ulator administers the legislation with the support of Th e functions of the Regulator also include moni- the Offi ce of the Gene Technology Regulator (OGTR) toring international practice in relation to the regula- which is part of the Australian Government Depart- tion of GMOs, and maintaining links with internation- ment of Health and Ageing. al organisations that deal with the regulation of gene Th ree statutory committees provide advice to the technology and with agencies that regulate GMOs in GTMC and the Regulator on technical, ethical and other countries. community consultation issues relating to genetically Nature and scope of assessments modifi ed organisms (GMOs) and GM products. and approvals Interaction with other regulatory agencies Th e object of the Act is to protect the health and safety Th e Act is designed to operate in a cooperative legisla- of people and to protect the environment, by identify- tive framework with other regulatory authorities that ing risks posed by or as a result of gene technology, and have complementary responsibilities and specialist by managing those risks by regulating certain ‘dealings’ expertise. As well as enhancing coordinated decision- with GMOs. making, this arrangement enables the timing of deci- Under the Act any dealings with genetically modi- sions to be aligned and avoids both duplication and fi ed organisms are prohibited unless they are appropri- gaps in coverage. ately authorised. Dealings are very broadly defi ned to Th e organisations prescribed for consultation com- include the conduct of experiments with, manufacture, prise the Australian New Zealand Food Safety Author- import, transport, supply or disposal of a GMO. Th e ity (FSANZ) that has responsibility for issuing stand- type of authorisation is determined by a range of fac- ards for the safety, composition and labelling of food; tors including the level of knowledge and experience the Agricultural Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines with the GMO and the extent of the containment con- Authority (APVMA) that regulates the use of herbi- ditions applied. cides, insecticides and animal therapeutics; the Th era- Where GMOs are intended to be released in to the www.atse.org.au

22 www.atse.org.au 23 – Sue Meek GM FOODS GM two of the e cultivation ned Regulator the consider- to the raised part is was in because during of concerns gene the technologying legislation, Australian and terri- is decision also recognises states that Regulator the also e Act empowers to accredit Th and Queensland except and territories All states Th Dr Sue Meek FTSE was appointed Australia’s inaugural Gene inaugural Australia’s appointed was Dr Sue Meek FTSE in a 2001. She has worked in December Regulator Technology academe and the interface of industry, of capacities at variety and understanding of the economic increase to government and to develop and technology of science social implications and research in investment policy stimulate settings that development. The object of the Act is is Act the of object The and health the protect to to and people of safety environment. the protect and territoryRole of state governments draft In confi Governments health safety environ- and the to human of risks ation Th ment. to a requirement that development on its consultation Act’s the economic could compromise consider issues focus of people upon protection environment. and the for economic responsible develop- primarily are tories and jurisdictions, respective their within issues ment they might anticipated act to limit Act commercial the Gene Tech- for the providing by releases of GM crops nology a policy to issues Council principle Ministerial to recognise law state/territory areas designated under of GM identity or non-GM the for to “preserve crops purposes”. marketing legislation that introduced have Territory Northern the commercial on the of controls imposition the enables been authorised have of GM that crops introduction Regulator health the en- and for release by on human safety Th grounds. vironmental GM above been has canolas un- mentioned prevented better are and segregation practices impacts market til conditions contained under trials Field understood. GM of other be cultivation permittedmay and the GM (for example, NSW) cotton in crops be can still allowed. tolerant wheat. Extensive information on current and on current information Extensive wheat. tolerant OGTR on the is available website assessments previous (www.ogtr.gov.au). GMOs with and to cer- organisations to conduct work as facilities, as well conferring tify containment physical and compliance powers. monitoring substantial ese is in- is ected a cautious cautious a ected and limited irty-seven eld trials before larger- eld trials eld peas allergic when re- was conducted e research Regulator the is enables to require measures. cacy of containment changes in result may research of this e results that process a comprehensive stipulates e Act Th At the same time the developer is enabled to collect developer is enabled the same time the At a project decision to discontinue recent CSIRO’s animal modelAs the used not been has validated to Th To date the Regulator the date issued licences has seven To ed facilities contained and proceeds small- through scale, stringently controlled fi controlled scale, stringently release can or commercial scale, reduced containment be contemplated. Th to be collecteddata GMO each stage the at about of to reduce uncertainty order process in step-by-step this and to assessments, risk in made assumptions around effi the test environment, the regulatory the a staged anticipates system environment, certi- in starts of GMOs that of development process fi to licence conditions to better manage will and conditions to licence risk in- same or similar GMOs. of the evaluations future form that requirements and scale-up on performance data can be decisions further as used to whether to make would also be data Such is warranted. development regula- product from approvals for obtaining essential and sell GM products to manufacture tory authorities GMOs. from, derived or are are, that fi to develop weevil-resistant fed GMOs is a the were mice in that occurred sponses of this. Th practical example for regulatory applying of anticipation in approvals FSANZ both from OGTR. and the or allergic to food, responses immune predict human actual whether about can be drawn no conclusions GM con- if the would peas occur were to humans harm decision refl people. by sumed CSIRO’s actually never submit- were data test and the approach ted to regulatory authorities. include trials of a range of other crops and introduced and introduced crops of a range trials of other include and drought- papaya as such delayed-ripening traits, controlled release licences have also been issued. Th have licences release controlled the Regulator must follow in assessing applications for Regulator applications the assessing follow in must – the environment the to release GMOslicences into highlymost regulated category of dealings. Th a wide with extensively to consult cludes a requirement the including range of expert and authorities, groups Gene Tech- the prescribed agencies earlier, mentioned and Advisory Committee and state nology Technical as well public. as the territory governments, release of GMOs, compris- commercial-scale for the and/or herbicide-tolerant insect-resistant three ing of which canolas (one twocottons, herbicide-tolerant breeding carna- a blue a hybrid system), also contains Th vaccine. and a cholera tion ATSE SYMPOSIUM / BOOK REVIEW

NEW TECHNOLOGY IN BOOK REVIEW INFRASTRUCTURE LOTS OF SCARS: THE LIFE OF A SCIENTIST The ATSE National Symposium By Richard (Dick) Collins FTSE 20–21 November 2006, Sydney Published by Lexington Avenue Press, Copacabana, NSW ‘New Technology in Infrastructure’ (‘Fabric of a Nation’ series) will provide you with an unparalleled This highly entertaining and informative book covers the life of an eminent Australian scientist opportunity to hear and discuss changes in over the latter half of the 20th century. Beginning with his earliest memories during World the provision of infrastructure over the next War II, Dick traces his education through school, where he was profoundly infl uenced by 25 years with some of the most perceptive several outstanding teachers, to the University of Sydney, where others also helped to shape researchers, entrepreneurs, and industry his future, and particularly his attitude to the importance of clear and engaging teaching. leaders in Australia. After university, Dick went into industry to “do something useful”. At AWA, he worked The Symposium will examine the with Lou Davies (“boss, mentor, friend”, who “more than any other person helped to shape impact of new technologies, some still in my views about the role of science in society”). Perhaps most importantly, he gained a much the embryonic stage, on the nature and better understanding about interacting productively with people and respecting diff ering shape of infrastructure and its sustainable viewpoints. Like many of us, Dick sought opportunities overseas and in 1965 began PhD implementation. It will identify demands studies at New York University. With a baby daughter, little money and separated from a close and trends in the fi elds of energy, health, family, life in New York was no picnic. What benefi ted Dick most was what he learnt about communication, transport, mining and water himself – his supervisor stretched him to the limit and taught him what he had inside. against a framework of fi nance, delivery After completion of his graduate studies, Dick returned to work with Lou Davies for systems, sustainability and society’s needs. another decade. At the age of 37, he returned to academia. From 1980 until his retirement in It will benchmark the Australian scene with 2000 he was Professor of Applied Physics at the University of Sydney, and ultimately Head of global infl uences and standards. School and Director of the Science Foundation for Physics. During this period, he also held ATSE conferences attract some 300 several key government appointments including Chairman of ANSTO (“the only job from industry leaders, more than half from which I was asked to resign”). In one fun chapter, Dick discusses his extraordinarily diverse outside the Academy. Their networks non-professional interests: experimental cook, experienced handyman, expert cabinetmaker, extend throughout the technological non-expert musician, failed photographer, suicidal sailor, card sharp and sometime poet. He and commercial sectors of the nation. also devotes whole chapters to his students (“the best thing about being an academic is the Governments, large and medium students”) and to his greatest love, his family. corporations, practitioners, and the research This book diff ers from many autobiographies in that it contains less about the things that and education sectors are all stakeholders in Dick has done rather than how he came to do them and the people that infl uenced him on identifying the technological changes which the way. Some names will be well known to many Fellows: Smith-White, Room (“he taught will shape the world of tomorrow. me the only course in which I learnt absolutely nothing”), Bullen, Builder, Phyllis Nichol, Don PROGRAM Millar, Freddie Hertz, Harry Messel, Jan Kolm, several Government ministers and, of course, The Symposium will be held over two days. Lou Davies. It is a fascinating window on Australian science of the time. The Pre-Conference Dinner of Fellows, Dick is donating all proceeds from sales of his book to the Messel Endowment of the associated with the annual ATSE Oration, will Science Foundation for Physics at the University of Sydney. The book is available from the be held on Sunday 19 November, and the Foundation: School of Physics A28, University of Sydney 2006; 02 9351 3622; Symposium Dinner on the Monday evening. [email protected] (RRP $29.95 plus $5 p&h). TOPICS Dr Peter D Jones FTSE, [email protected] ¢ Sustainability ¢ Cities and their needs ¢ Energy ATSE Offi ce Bearers F CUS and executive Deadlines 2006–07 ¢ Health – delivery and preventive PRESIDENT Deadlines for the receipt of copy for forthcoming approaches Dr J W Zillman AO [email protected] issues of FOCUS are: ¢ Communications 12 May 2006 VICE PRESIDENTS 11 August 2006 ¢ Mining infrastructure Dr D V Clark AM [email protected] 11 November 2006 ¢ Transport Mr P J Laver AM [email protected] 9 February 2007 ¢ Water HONORARY TREASURER Articles and opinion pieces of 800 to 1200 ¢ Finance Dr J A Eady [email protected] words in length on issues of national importance will be welcomed. ¢ Innovative delivery systems HONORARY SECRETARY Contributions should be addressed to ¢ Society’s demands Professor T F Smith AM [email protected] The Editor at Academy Headquarters, Further details: www.atse.org.au CEO or by email to [email protected]. Dr J Dodgson [email protected] Electronic communication is preferred. Linking Australian Science, Technology and Business Subscribe to R&D Review and stay in touch with the latest news and views in Australian science, technology and innovation. Please contact customer service on 03 9670 1168, email [email protected] or download the form from www.coretext.com.au www.atse.org.au

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