Cirpjournal Featuring Interviews with Professors Baruch Fischhoff and Wändi Bruine De Bruin

CIRPJournal Featuring interviews with professors Baruch Fischhoff and Wändi Bruine de Bruin

WINTER 2021 VOLUME 5, ISSUE 2

THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

CIRPJournal Table of Contents 7 Letter from the Publisher and 34 Redefining National Security Editor-in-Chief Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic Kiron K. Skinner Audrey Pederson and Eri Phinisee

39 The Impacts of COVID-19 on State Articles and Non-State Actors in the Middle East 8 Addressing Learning Disabilities in James C. Summers II and Chandler Remote Learning During the Stacy COVID-19 Pandemic Jackie Wu and Renée Nikolov Interviews

13 COVID-19 in US Prisons and Jails: A Public Health Emergency 44 Interview with Baruch Fischhoff Catherine Taipe and Dylan Pollak Interviewed by Bill Brink

19 The Impact of COVID-19 on the 48 Interview with Wändi Bruine de Public Sector Bruin Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee Interviewed by Bill Brink

24 Coronavirus Relief Bills: Accessibility and Sustainability M. Angelica Kim and Zofia Majewski

29 Economic Effects of COVID-19 in the United States and Pennsylvania Jivak Nischal and Omasan Richardson CIRP Journal

EDITORS:

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief: Kiron K. Skinner

Managing Editor: John J. Chin

Associate Editors: Bill Brink Emily Half Abby Schachter

Founding Editors: Yong-Gyun Choi Amanda Kennard Inyoung Song Audrey Williams

Cover Artist: Yoshi Torralva

Posner Hall 386 5000 Forbes Avenue Pittsburgh, PA 15213

www.cmu.edu/ir ISSN: 2328-9295

4 CONTRIBUTORS:

Minseo Angelica Simon Lee Zofia Majewski Renée Nikolov Kim

Jivak Nischal Audrey Pederson Eri Phinisee Dylan Pollak

Arjun Omasan Richardson Chandler Stacy James C. Summers II Ramachandran

Catherine Taipe Jackie Wu

5 6 Letter from the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief

Dear Reader,

This is the tenth edition of the CIRP Journal, sponsored by Carnegie Mellon University’s Center for International Relations and Politics (CIRP) and Institute for Politics and Strategy (IPS). This is also the second issue to feature submissions that were commissioned from participants in the Carnegie Mellon University Washington Semester Program (CMU/WSP).

Founded in 2014, the Washington Semester Program brings students to live, intern, and study in Washington, DC. In the fall of 2020, despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, our students were still able to fully participate in the full range of CMU/WSP learning, internship, and professional experiences. These students came into direct contact with political, business, and community leaders inside and outside the beltway and gained insights into the most pressing policy issues of the day, including the political, social, and economic implications of the CO- VID-19 pandemic. We are so excited to share those insights with you in this edition of the CIRP Journal. The articles reflect the breadth and depth of the disruption and destruction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting massive effects as close as Pittsburgh and as far away as the Middle East.

Let me also thank Baruch Fischhoff and Wändi Bruine de Bruin for agreeing to be interviewed by our associate editor and IPS communications specialist Bill Brink for this issue. Readers will no doubt find insights about the uncertainties and responses to the coronavirus pandemic from two world-renowned CMU-affiliated experts in decision science and risk management.

We welcome your feedback and thank you for your consideration of these important conversa- tions. We pray for the day when we can study the COVID-19 pandemic as history. Until then, please get vaccinated as soon as possible, maintain social distance, and wear a mask where appropriate.

Sincerely, Kiron K. Skinner Publisher and Editor-in-Chief

7 Addressing Learning Disabilities in Remote Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic JACKIE WU AND RENÉE NIKOLOV

he COVID-19 pandemic closed down more than half of public school buildings in the United States in the spring of 2020, affecting at least 50.8 million students.1 The transition Tfrom in-person instruction to remote learning has been difficult for students and teachers alike. However, young children with learning disabilities are especially vulnerable to having their educational needs overlooked during the pandemic, which could have negative effects in the long run and perhaps leave many of the most vulnerable children permanently behind in terms of education. According to the latest figures from the National Center for Education Statistics, there are over 2.3 million students with specific learning disabilities, making up 4.6 percent of total public school enrollment.2 So far, these students with learning disabilities are not getting the proper education they need during the pandemic.3 In this article we explain the nature and severity of remote learning issues that impact young students with learning disabilities. Providing all students with an equal opportunity to learn is important for an equitable society.

Remote Learning for Young Children Remote learning structures for young students adopted by many schools during the COVID-19 pandemic vary by classroom, school, and district. Some districts enforce a fixed schedule with a combination of live virtual instruction and “independent work time” while other districts provide students pre-recorded videos and assignments and request that parents structure their children’s educational schedule.4 While some schools encourage students to use online programs to practice math and reading skills, other schools send their students worksheets and instructions to rely on Google Classroom to study. Some districts, like New York, send interactive learning kits to students’ homes in order to enable hands-on learning. Despite differences in how remote learning is executed across the United States, almost all remote learning plans rely on technology and virtual resources to conduct classroom activities. Students often use video chat software, such as Zoom or Skype, to interact with their

1 Stacey Decker, Holly Peele, Maya Riser-Kositsky, Hyon-Young Kim, and Emma Patti Harris, “The Coronavirus Spring: The Historic Closing of U.S. Schools,” Education Week, July 1, 2020, https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/the-coronavirus- spring-the-historic-closing-of.html. 2 “The NCES Fast Facts Tool Provides Quick Answers to Many Education Questions (National Center for Education Statistics),” National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Home Page, a part of the US Department of Education, accessed December 3, 2020, https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=64. 3 Perry Stein and Valerie Strauss, “Special education students are not just falling behind in the pandemic — they’re losing key skills, parents say,” Washington Post, August 7, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/special-education-students-are- not-just-falling-behind--theyre-losing-key-skills-parents-say/2020/08/05/ec1b91ca-cffd-11ea-9038-af089b63ac21_story.html. 4 Jackie Mader, “Schedules for distance learning are all over the place (and it’s making parents crazy),” The Hechinger Report, last modified August 19, 2020, https://hechingerreport.org/schedules-for-distance-learning-are-all-over-the-place-and-its-making- parents-crazy/.

Renée Nikolov is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University studying Interna- tional Relations and Politics as well as Behavioral Economics. During the Fall 2020 Washington Semester Program, she interned with Voice of Amer- ica’s social media team. She is a member of the Student Advisory Com- mittee in the Institute for Politics and Strategy and participates in many advocacy organizations on campus, including CMU Able.

8 Addressing Learning Disabilities in Remote Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic

peers and teachers.5 Teachers mainly post assignments online and provide feedback on student work through virtual portals, such as Schoology.6 Thus, young children in public education most often engage in remote learning on a computer. Many students, especially young children, are struggling to stay engaged with learning through a computer screen, while teachers experience a load of responsibilities and stress to adapt to teaching their students at a distance.7

In-Person Accommodations for Students with Learning Disabilities Students with learning disabilities who require accommodations in public schooling usually have an Individualized Education Program (IEP) for a child’s “special education experience” or a tailored 504 Plan that outlines how a child’s disability will be supported in a general classroom setting.8 Common accommodations include extra time on tests and assignments, reduction of distractions in the classroom, and breaks during classroom activities.9 Some 504 Plans or IEPs require a student to have an in-class aide to provide personalized attention and to help the student in strengthening specific skills, such as time management. Most IEPs include “related services” – e.g. social skills support groups, speech-language therapy, or occupational therapy – to supplement a child’s special education plan.10 By federal law, public schools must provide adequate educational support to all enrolled children with learning disabilities by meeting the demands of the child’s IEP or 504 Plan. Noncompliance with an IEP or 504 Plan may lead to termination of financial aid to the offending school or a Department of Justice investigation.11 Unless schools are completely closed, the COVID-19 pandemic has not excused schools from meeting the accommodations in students’ IEPs and 504 Plans in a remote setting, per the US Department of Education.12

How Schools Have Been Accommodating Students Remotely While some accommodations – like extended time on assignments and tests – easily transfer to a remote classroom environment, implementing accommodations that traditionally require in-person interaction in remote learning has been a considerable challenge for teachers

5 The Albert Team, “What is Remote Learning? What You Need to Know,”The Albert Blog (blog), Albert, November 24, 2020, https://www.albert.io/blog/what-is-remote-learning/. 6 Greenwich Public Schools, “Student Portals,” last accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.greenwichschools.org/departments/ information-technology/student-portals. 7 Sarah Schwartz, “Survey: Teachers and Students Are Struggling With Online Learning,” Education Week, November 16, 2020, https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/survey-teachers-and-students-are-struggling-with-online-learning/2020/11. 8 The Understood Team, “The difference between IEPs and 504 plans,”Understood , last accessed December 3, 2020, https://www. understood.org/en/school-learning/special-services/504-plan/the-difference-between-ieps-and-504-plans. 9 Eve Kessler, “Examples of Accommodations & Modifications,”Smart Kids with Learning Disabilities, last accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.smartkidswithld.org/getting-help/the-abcs-of-ieps/examples-of-accommodations-modifications/. 10 Amanda Morin, “Related Services for Kids Who Learn and Think Differently: What You Need to Know,”Understood , last accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.understood.org/en/school-learning/special-services/special-education-basics/related-services-for-kids-with-learning-and-thinking-differences-what-you-need-to-know?_ul=1*zaf711*domain_userid*YW1wLVpUcVE0dHR hTDYzMjR5OTdjOW5LcWc. 11 Office for Civil Rights, “Protecting Students With Disabilities,”US Department of Education, last modified January 10, 2020, https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/504faq.html. 12 Susan Yellin, “Adjusting Your Child’s IEP or 504 Plan for Distance Learning,” ADDitude Magazine, November 9, 2020, https:// www.additudemag.com/iep-504-plan-distance-learning/.

Jackie Wu is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University studying Business Ad- ministration and Social & Political History with a minor in Politics & Pub- lic Policy. She is interning at the National Women’s History Museum for the 2020-21 academic year. On campus, she writes for the Life at Tepper blog and has served as president of CMU Quizbowl.

9 Jackie Wu and Renée Nikolov

and school districts. For instance, an austistic student who has trouble socializing with other students may need to attend a social support group, which is usually held in-person.13 Students with learning disabilities that hinder fine-motor skills benefit from specialized therapy that traditionally require one-on-one interactions held in-person. Theo Duran, an austistic eight- year-old, made significant progress in holding a crayon and walking up stairs through in-person therapy provided by his school.14 However, the pandemic jeopardizes this progress through the uncertainty of whether in-person therapy can be replaced by therapy practiced remotely. After many districts went remote due to the pandemic, special education teachers had to rapidly make many changes to prepare students with learning disabilities for online learning.15 Miriam Wertheimer, program administrator of Carnegie Mellon University’s Leonard Gelfand Center for Service Learning and Outreach and relative of a 3rd-4th grade special education teacher, explained to us that some special education teachers “work[ed] overtime to support teachers who have students with IEPs in their classes” by sitting with those students in one- on-one video chats, meeting with teachers and students virtually, and developing adaptations like typing up and reviewing class notes with students.16 Thus, eventually most educators made efforts to deliver previously in-person related services virtually.

Problems with Remote Learning Our interviews with child education specialists reveal that getting engaged in a remote style of learning is the biggest struggle for young students, but the struggle is bigger for students with learning disabilities. Pamela Piskurich, program director of CMU’s Gelfand Center, told us all students face challenges staying focused and involved in their remote learning.17 The Gelfand Center’s assistant director, Kristin Lavery, agreed. She also told us, “Teachers are already spread thin, and teaching during the pandemic further exacerbates things.” Prior to March 2020, few had experience teaching via tools like Zoom, and teachers needed to learn and adapt quickly. Lavery added that most students are probably struggling to remain interested in a screen all day long for both synchronous and asynchronous remote learning, and this issue is affecting those with disabilities even more. Additionally, remote learning directions may not be clear, and students may find difficulty in speaking up. Lavery worried that children who do not comprehend instructions may not know who, how, or when to ask for help.18 Piskurich imagined that parents would need to assist and seek support for their child more so than before. However, especially for younger children, parents and teachers alike cannot assume students can express their difficulty or have the ability to assess their learning. Moreover, working parents may not have enough time to participate fully in their child’s day- to-day learning. Even if they are at home, they may be too busy with their jobs to keep an eye on their child’s classroom experience. If they are essential workers, it may be near impossible to stay so involved in everyday learning on top of the existing difficulty of arranging childcare on short notice. The added responsibility placed on parents also magnifies a particular class issue. Students who come from low-income families are overrepresented in special education, and

13 Amanda Morin, “Related Services for Kids Who Learn and Think Differently: What You Need to Know.” 14 Perry Stein and Valerie Strauss, “Special education students are not just falling behind in the pandemic — they’re losing key skills, parents say.” 15 Andy Steiner, “For some students with learning disabilities, distance learning has been a disappointment,” MinnPost, June 5, 2020, https://www.minnpost.com/education/2020/06/for-some-students-with-learning-disabilities-distance-learning-has-been-a- disappointment/. 16 Miriam E. Wertheimer, interview with the authors, December 2, 2020. 17 Pamela Piskurich, interview with the authors, December 2, 2020. 18 Kristin Lavery, interview with the authors, December 2, 2020.

10 Addressing Learning Disabilities in Remote Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic they may not have devices or internet access to get remote learning resources in the first place.19 Low-income parents may be frontline workers unable to stay home during the pandemic; while frontline workers are a varied group, they generally receive lower wages and come disproportionately from socio-economically disadvantaged groups.20 If their parents are not physically home to help out during class, students with learning disabilities may not be able to focus or work on tasks given. These disabled students from low-income families are at risk of falling behind their peers without the proper technological resources and parental involvement.

Educational Access Lawsuits The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) mandates a “free and appropriate public school education” for children and youth ages three to twenty-one with disabilities. The question is whether schools and school districts are doing the best they can with limited information to provide a safe and equally accessible education to students with disabilities in an unprecedented time, or if they are cutting “The question is whether corners. The case of Alexander Campbell, a schools and school districts 14-year-old with autism, may suggest the latter. are doing the best they can His parents received a letter from his high school in Virginia asking to amend his Individualized with limited information to Education Plan to suspend certain services. provide a safe and equally They refused to sign. According to Alexander, accessible education to “we should be reasonable with schools saying, you know, that they can’t provide every students with disabilities in an accommodation,” but even with remote learning, unprecedented time, or if they his parents want him to be able to learn with as are cutting corners.” many necessary accommodations as possible.21 Families have turned to the courts to challenge the access to education their children with disabilities are receiving. In Hawaii, Vanessa Ince and her husband have filed a lawsuit to get the state’s Department of Education to pay for services their 10-year-old daughter Alexis needs in a facility where she can see and interact with other children, an integral component of her well-being. Their attorney, Keith Peck, has also filed a suit seeking class action status on behalf of families in Hawaii who believe the state has breached their students’ Individualized Education Plans.⁴ Though Hawaii’s statewide school district makes it easier to join complaints, lawsuits are also taking place elsewhere across the country. In July 2020, over twenty plaintiffs filed a suit in New York City seeking national class action status (the case was later dismissed).22 Rulings on the individual suits related to special education during the pandemic have been varied. Some, like L.V. v. New York City Department of Education, have been successful for families of children with disabilities. In this case, a district was ordered to provide in-person applied behavior analysis therapy and other services to a five-year-old with autism. InChicago Teachers Union v. DeVos, an Illinois district was allowed to mandate that staff create remote learning plans for students with IEPs and Section 504 plans by the end of the school year, even

19 Grace Tatter, “Low-Income Students and a Special Education Mismatch,” Usable Knowledge, February 21, 2019, https://www.gse. harvard.edu/news/uk/19/02/low-income-students-and-special-education-mismatch. 20 Francine D. Blau et al., “Essential and Frontline Workers in the COVID-19 Crisis,” Econofact, September 15, 2020, https://econofact.org/essential-and-frontline-workers-in-the-covid-19-crisis. 21 Anya Kamenetz, “Families Of Children With Special Needs Are Suing In Several States. Here’s Why.,” NPR (NPR, July 23, 2020), https://www.npr.org/2020/07/23/893450709/families-of-children-with-special-needs-are-suing-in-several-states-heres-why. 22 J.T. et al v. Bill de Blasio, 20 C.V. 5878, J. Pecorino (S.D. New York 2020).

11 Jackie Wu and Renée Nikolov

though the teachers union felt the hurried timeline was near impossible.23 In other cases, families have been denied access to the resources they seek. In a case in Guam, five students with disabilities sought a preliminary injunction requiring the Guam Education Department to implement their IEP services during state-mandated school closures. However, the district court ruled that the students “failed to establish that they would suffer irreparable harm” without an injunctive order.24

Conclusion In transitioning from in-person learning “Online classes and to remote learning, many students with learning [Individualized Education disabilities have struggled to retain the same quality Plan]-related services of accommodations that they received prior to the pandemic. Online classes and IEP-related services delivered virtually are delivered virtually are not comparable to pre-COVID not comparable to pre- accommodations, where students were able to interact COVID accommodations, with special education staff in person and easily ask for help. where students were able to interact with special The virtual format of accommodations has made education staff in person students increasingly reliant on their parents to help them focus on their classes. Parents are not and easily ask for help.” professionals in providing special education services, and they have other responsibilities that take time away from giving extra educational support to their children with learning disabilities. As demonstrated in cases of lawsuits against school administrators and teachers, parents are using the judicial system to fight for their children’s learning accommodations. However, the success of these lawsuits is mixed. Regardless, teachers, school administrators, and parents need to coordinate on finding acceptable accommodations for students with learning disabilities trying to learn during a pandemic.

23 DA, “Ruling Roundup: Special Education during the Pandemic,” District Administration, September 1, 2020, https://districtad- ministration.com/ruling-roundup-special-education-during-the-pandemic/. 24 “Content Details: J.C., Et Al. v. Jon Fernandez,” govinfo, accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/ USCOURTS-gud-1_20-cv-00024.

12 COVID-19 in US Prisons and Jails: A Public Health Emergency CATHERINE TAIPE AND DYLAN POLLAK

ontrolling the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic inside prisons and jails in the United States poses special challenges, particularly given numerous financial and political C 1 constraints as well as complex variation in policies and laws regarding prisons across states. Despite the myriad state and local responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, many states have not adequately adopted measures needed to maintain the health, welfare, and psychological wellbeing of imprisoned people amidst the pandemic that has ravaged prison environments. In this article, we illustrate the ongoing public health emergency in the US prison system by assessing the efficacy of the coronavirus response in two states that rank first and seventh in state prison populations, Texas and Pennsylvania.2 We chose these two states as case studies based on the availability of updated research as well as our access to local interview candidates. Nonetheless, all fifty states have faced similar issues addressing COVID-19 in prisons and jails.3

Background COVID-19 has caused a public health emergency in prisons and jails in the United States, the country with the highest incarceration rate in the world. With 2.3 million people behind bars as of March 2020 and 200,000 people flowing in and out of local jails each week, the COVID-19 pandemic has struck US jails and prisons particularly hard.4 Some 275,000 US inmates caught the coronavirus by the end of 2020.5 Confirmed test cases in US prisons are 3.7 times the national average, with twelve out of every 100 prisoners infected with or recovering

1 In this paper, the term prisons refer to facilities under state or federal jurisdiction where convicted people typically serve longer sentences, while jails refer to facilities under the jurisdiction of a city, local district, or county where those newly-arrested or awaiting a trial remain, typically for a short period of time. “FAQ: What Is the Difference Between Jail and Prison?” Prison Fellowship, accessed December 3, 2020. https://www.prisonfellowship.org/resources/training-resources/in-prison/faq-jail-prison/. 2 “Prison Populations by State 2020,” World Population Review, accessed January 13, 2021, https://worldpopulationreview.com/state- rankings/prison-population-by-state. 3 Emily Widra and Dylan Hayre, Failing Grades: States’ Responses to COVID-19 in Jails & Prisons (American Civil Liberties Union Smart Justice and Prison Policy Initiative, 2020). 4 Wendy Sawyer and Peter Wagner, “Mass Incarceration: The Whole Pie 2020,”Prison Policy Initiative, March 24, 2020. https://www. prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2020.html. “A State-by-State Look at Coronavirus in Prisons,” The Marshall Project, modified May 1, 2020, https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons. 5 Madeline Carlisle and Josiah Bates, “With over 275,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. COVID-19 has devastated the U.S. prison and jail population,” Time, updated December 28, 2020, https://time.com/5924211/coronavirus-outbreaks-prisons-jails-vaccines/. Dylan Pollak is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University studying Interna- tional Relations and Politics with minors in Cybersecurity and Internation- al Conflict as well as Global Systems and Management. During her time in D.C. last semester, Dylan interned with the public relations firm kglobal. She is the Co-Vice President of Public Relations for CMU Engineers without Borders and sits on the board of SPIRIT Buggy. She has interests in organizational behavior and informational technology.

Catherine Taipe is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University studying Inter- national Relations and Politics with a double major in Social and Politi- cal History. During her time in Washington, DC last semester, Catherine interned at Win Without War, a non-profit focused on advocating for pro- gressive US foreign policy. On campus, she writes for the student newspaper and for a newsletter that uplifts diversity, equity, and inclusion in the Diet- rich community called The Garden.

13 Catherine Taipe and Dylan Pollak

from COVID-19 compared to only three in 100 US citizens.6 Over 18 percent of the US state and federal prison population is in the more vulnerable 55 years or older age group.7 Prisons and jails across the country had less than ideal conditions even before the pandemic. Typically overcrowded facilities that allow minimal social distancing and have varying, but mostly unsatisfactory, access to hygiene products and healthcare make the spread of COVID-19 all the more dangerous.8 Proximity in closed rooms without social distancing only catalyzes the effects of COVID-19 per the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guidelines.9 The CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act, passed by Congress in April 2020, allocated $100 million in emergency funding and expanded home confinement for federal prisons, while state and local systems were granted $850 million in emergency funding with little guidance of what to do with it.10 It is unclear how much of this has gone to prisons. The lockdown procedures put in place at many state and local prisons themselves may also exacerbate serious mental health challenges for prison populations. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, incarcerated people have reported a sharp decrease in basic social interaction such as having phone calls, visitors, and time to spend outdoors.11 Isolation, either in the form of solitary confinement or spending twenty-three hours a day in a holding cell, has also proven to be a particularly harmful tactic to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus.12 A reported 300,000 people have been sent to solitary confinement since the beginning of the pandemic, which represents a 500 percent increase compared to previous levels of solitary confinement usage.13 Solitary confinement and scarcity of social support is known to lead to higher rates of self-harm, suicide, and depression in prison.14 Any increase in solitary confinement therefore exacerbates serious negative non-COVID health problems.15 It is imperative to maintain a consistent schedule of out of cell time in jails to better ensure the mental health of prisoners. Solitary confinement may be a cure worse than COVID-19. To highlight these challenges in more detail, we now present two case studies.

Case Study One: Pennsylvania Many of Pennsylvania’s correctional facilities were overcrowded prior to the pandemic. Pennsylvania’s total correctional facilities population in January 2020 was 44,951 and eleven out of twenty-three of the facilities exceeded their operational bed capacity.16 This only made controlling the spread of COVID-19 more difficult inside the state’s prisons. In 2020, progress was made reducing overcrowding of state prisons. By December

6 Kevin T. Schnepel, “COVID-19 in U.S. State and Federal Prisons,” (December 2020). 7 Federal Bureau of Prisons, “Inmate Age,” January 9, 2021, https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.jsp. 8 “Overcrowding and other threats to health and safety,” ACLU, accessed January 14, 2021, https://www.aclu.org/issues/prisoners- rights/cruel-inhuman-and-degrading-conditions/overcrowding-and-other-threats-health. 9 “Personal and Social Activities,” CDC, updated January 6, 2021, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/ personal-social-activities.html. 10 “How will the CARES Act impact prisons and jails?” Prison Fellowship, April 14, 2020. https://www.prisonfellowship. org/2020/04/how-will-the-cares-act-impact-prisons-and-jails/. 11 Samantha Melamed, “Lawsuit over Philly jails’ pandemic response alleges grim conditions, 24-hour lockdowns,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, updated September 1, 2020, accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-asd-mod-3-rcf- prisons-jails-coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-aclu-20200901.html. 12 Samantha Melamed, “Pa. prisons face a deadly ‘full-blown resurgence’ of COVID-19,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, posted Novem- ber 12, 2020, accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania/pennsylvania-prison-outbreak-coronavirus- pandemic-cases-20201112.html. 13 Joan Stephenson, “COVID-19 Pandemic Poses Challenge for Jails and Prisons”, JAMA Health Forum (blog), JAMA Network updated April 7, 2020, https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2764370. 14 Thomas Hewson, Andrew Shepherd, Jake Hard, and Jennifer Shaw. “Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Mental Health of Prisoners.” The Lancet. Psychiatry 7, no. 7 (July 2020): 568–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30241-8. 15 Solitary Confinement Is Never the Answer, (Unlock the Box, Solitary Watch, and The Raben Group, 2020). 16 “Pennsylvania Department of Corrections Monthly Population Report as of December 31, 2020,” Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, updated December 31, 2020, https://www.cor.pa.gov/About%20Us/Statistics/Documents/Monthly%20Population%20 Reports/Mtpop2012.pdf

14 COVID-19 in US Prisons and Jails: A Public Health Emergency

2020, the total prison population decreased by around six thousand to 38,634 and only one facility exceeded their operational bed capacity.17 On April 10, 2020, Pennsylvania Governor Wolf ordered the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (DOC) to create a Temporary Program to Reprieve Sentences of Incarceration with the intention of leaving fewer inmates at risk of contracting COVID-19 by reducing the non-violent prison population.18 Although 1,500 to 1,800 inmates were eligible under this program, only 160 inmates were released through this program from April to June 2020.19 However, the DOC created their own programs to decrease the prison population in the state system, such as expediting parole release, prioritizing inmates who have already completed their minimum sentences, and having quicker parole hearings.20 Some Pennsylvanian counties have taken similar actions to reduce jail populations in order to curtail COVID-19 spread. Jails in Bucks and Northumberland counties, for example, reduced their inmate population by 30 percent after district attorneys identified inmates who could be temporarily released or placed in supervised total confinement.21 The factors considered for “It is imperative to maintain early release included crimes committed (only non-violent offenders were considered), the a consistent schedule of prisoner’s health condition, the length of time until out of cell time in jails to release, and whether the inmates were suitable for better ensure the mental home supervision.22 As of April 15, 2020, the Bucks County Correctional Facility population was down health of prisoners. Solitary to 534 inmates compared to 711 on March 11, and confinement may be a cure the Community Corrections Center lowered their worse than COVID-19.” population to 125 from 190 in March.23 Tracking the number of inmates in Pennsylvania with COVID-19 has proven challenging. Joshua Alvarez, the former Prison Monitoring Director of the Pennsylvania Prison Society, explained to us the significance of data transparency in reporting inmate COVID-19 cases, especially at the county level since “county jails are more transitory than state facilities, meaning more guards and people come in and out of the county jails.”24 The Pennsylvania Prison Society wanted to produce a COVID-19 dashboard for the sixty-five Pennsylvanian county jails.25 After being stonewalled in talks with the DOC and the Pennsylvania Department of Health, the Prison Society started collecting COVID-19 data in county jails themselves through information obtained from media clippings, their volunteers, and county prison official statements. This resulted in the creation of a Pennsylvania Prison Society COVID-19 dashboard presenting the current infections in county jails.

17 “County Prison Contact Info,” Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, accessed December 9, 2020, https://www.cor.pa.gov:443/ Facilities/CountyPrisons/Pages/County-Prison-Contact-Info.aspx. 18 “Department of Corrections to Establish Temporary Program to Reprieve Sentences of Incarceration,” April 10, 2020. Governor Tom Wolf. https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov-wolf-department-of-corrections-to-establish-temporary-program-to- reprieve-sentences-of-incarceration/ 19 “County Prison Contact Info,” Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, accessed December 9, 2020. https://www.cor.pa.gov:443/ Facilities/CountyPrisons/Pages/County-Prison-Contact-Info.aspx. 20 “DOC/PBPP Dashboard,” Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, updated January 14, 2021, http://jointmetrics.cor.pa.gov/#/ index/main. 21 “Certain Inmates Released From Jails Amid COVID-19 Outbreak,” April 15, 2020. Bucks County District Attorney’s Office. https://bucks.crimewatchpa.com/da/29567/post/certain-inmates-released-jails-amid-covid-19-outbreak 22 Kara Seymour, “250 Prisoners Released From Bucks Co. Jails Due To Coronavirus,” Patch, updated April 15, 2020, accessed December 3, 2020, https://patch.com/pennsylvania/doylestown/250-prisoners-released-bucks-co-jails-due-coronavirus. 23 Peg Quann, “Bucks Cuts Prison Population as 20 Prisoners, Employees Have Coronavirus,” Ellwood City Ledger. Accessed December 9, 2020. https://www.ellwoodcityledger.com/news/20200415/bucks-cuts-prison-population-as-20-prisoners-employees- have-coronavirus. 24 Joshua Alvarez (former prison monitoring director, Pennsylvania Prison Society) in discussion with the authors, December 2020. 25 “County Prison Contact Info,” Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, accessed December 9, 2020. https://www.cor.pa.gov:443/ Facilities/CountyPrisons/Pages/County-Prison-Contact-Info.aspx.

15 Catherine Taipe and Dylan Pollak

Data reported on the DOC dashboard may undercount COVID infections insofar as staff are only tested upon request and the criteria for testing of inmates is contingent on many factors, including whether inmates are to be released, transferred between facilities, have a medical appointment, need contact tracing, or are symptomatic.26 The most significant portion of testing comes from inmates being transferred between facilities (27 percent). By contrast, hospital transfers and presenting COVID symptoms account for only 3 percent of testing. Yet most positive test results in prisons are due to surveillance contact tracing and symptomatic prisoners, with the latter accounting for 31 percent of all positive tests. Were symptomatic and asymptomatic testing even more common, the rate of positivity would likely be even higher. While the DOC contends that they are following the CDC guidelines, a recent CDC report emphasizes that both symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers can transmit COVID-19.27 Therefore, we recommend statewide testing for all inmates and employees at regular intervals. Prisoners in Philadelphia report that strict lockdown guidelines are still in place nine months into the pandemic.28 Philadelphia jails have been closely monitored since June due to a pending settlement between the city and ten prisoners represented by civil rights lawyers. The lawyers came to an agreement with the jail granting the prisoners forty-five minutes of out of cell time, but whether that is occurring is disputed. Meanwhile, a recent outbreak in a Philadelphia prison led to another lock down with no attorney visits, limited email, and only thirty minutes out-of-cell time three days a week to take showers or make phone calls.29

Case Study Two: Texas Texas, which has an above average incarceration rate at 891 per 100,000 people,30 has had more COVID infections of incarcerated people than any other prison system, with at least 231 deaths as of November 2020.31 The severity of this situation is a result in part of issues in overcrowding, timing and implementation of testing policy, and hygiene product accessibility. Many local jails in Texas are overcrowded. In Bee County, delayed trials and required quarantine periods exacerbated overcrowding with hundreds of prisoners beyond normal peaks.32 Meanwhile, over two thousand people enter and leave local jails per week in Harris County, the home of Houston.33 The revolving door of jails puts those awaiting their trial and the families of those released in danger of contracting COVID-19. To alleviate these problems, San Marcos county is part of a growing initiative in Texas to implement cite-and-release laws for county police. Since the motion was passed in April 2020, El Paso and Dallas have followed suit in compelling police to avoid arrests as much as possible, particularly for low-level, nonviolent crimes.34 In our conversation with San Marcos City Councilman Maxfield Baker, he shared

26 “Pennsylvania Department of Corrections COVID-19 Dashboard,” Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, updated January 15, 2021, https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNWQ5YTQ4ZWUtY2NjMi00ZWRhLTgyNWQtYzAzNzc5NmYwMGIyIiwidCI 6IjQxOGUyODQxLTAxMjgtNGRkNS05YjZjLTQ3ZmM1YTlhMWJkZSJ9. 27 Nathan W. Furukawa, John T. Brooks, and Jeremy Sobel, “Evidence Supporting Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syn- drome Coronavirus 2 While Presymptomatic or Asymptomatic.” Emerging Infectious Disease Journal 26, no. 7 (July 2020). https:// doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.201595.W 28 Melamed, “Lawsuit over Philly Jails’ Pandemic Response Alleges Grim Conditions, 24-Hour Lockdowns.” 29 Max Marin, “Coronavirus outbreak at Philly federal prison in Center City leads to full lockdown,” Billy Penn, November 20, 2020, https://billypenn.com/2020/11/20/coronavirus-outbreak-at-philly-federal-prison-in-center-city-leads-to-full-lockdown/. 30 “Texas Profile,” Prison Policy Initiative, accessed December 3, 2020, https://www.prisonpolicy.org/profiles/TX.html. 31 Michele Deitch, Alycia Welch, William Bucknall, and Destiny Moreno, “COVID and Corrections: A Profile of COVID Deaths in Custody in Texas,” Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs (November 2020), https://repositories.lib.utexas. edu/bitstream/handle/2152/83635/Profile%20of%20COVID%20deaths%20in%20custody.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y. 32 Blake Holland, “County Jails Faced with Overcrowding Problem Due to Effects of Pandemic,”KLTV , September 22, 2020, https:// www.kltv.com/2020/09/22/county-jails-faced-with-overcrowding-problem-due-effects-pandemic/. 33 “A State-by-State Look at Coronavirus in Prisons,” The Marshall Project, modified May 1, 2020, https://www.themarshallproject. org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons. 34 Katie Hall, “San Marcos Becomes 1st Texas City to OK Cite-and-Release Law,” Austin American-Statesman, April 23, 2020, https://www.statesman.com/news/20200422/san-marcos-becomes-1st-texas-city-to-ok-cite-and-release-law

16 COVID-19 in US Prisons and Jails: A Public Health Emergency the important role this ordinance plays in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in jails. “While San Marcos has passed our cite and release ordinance, we still need to build it into our [police department’s] culture,” Baker shared. “For that, we’ve started a Use of Force community driven task force that will provide recommendations to our City Council.”35 The lack of funding (and delegation) from state and federal governments to jails and prisons often hinders the fight against COVID-19. In April 2020, Texas Governor Abbott received and allocated emergency federal funds for COVID-19 relief to local governments. These funds could be spent on “medical care for inmates who have tested positive for COVID-19”, but it is unclear how much was actually spent for this purpose.36 Councilman Baker shared his sentiments about the issue of funding in effectively protecting vulnerable incarcerated people from the spread of the virus. “[The state government and San Marcos] have been slow to act and it is costing people their lives. It is clear that the Governor could allow [us] more local control, and that we need to address the systemic issues that unnecessarily jail people for extended periods of time,” he said. “Our budget is pretty tight because we rely so heavily on sales tax.”37 Many prisons in the state have proven unable to implement effective protocols on time, as seen in facilities like the Wynne Unit in Huntsville. In June 2020, this facility reported some of the highest rates of COVID-19 deaths. There were reports of isolating sick inmates with healthy ones in “Prisoners cannot escape the same cell, as well as clearly symptomatic inmates being denied testing. Despite incarcerated persons’ the virus in their confined experience, the Texas Department of Criminal Justice cells. While serving time for (TDCJ) has implemented policy and guidelines since their crimes, no prisoner April that have been applauded by many advocates: in April, TDCJ stopped accepting new inmates from should be sentenced to a county jails and issued cloth masks to all imprisoned COVID-19 death.” people and facility staff. Additionally, prison officials started to isolate the sick, educate inmates on protecting themselves from the virus, and begin extensive contact tracing. These decisions, however, came too late for the inmates in Wynne Unit. The TDCJ has reported at least ten COVID-related deaths from Wynne, including one prison officer. 38 Access to basic hygiene products such as soap and hand sanitizer is limited in Texas jails and prisons. Texas is also one of five states that still have regularly unpaid jobs for inmates despite mandatory health service fees.39 During the pandemic, a prison in El Paso County began a two-dollar-per-hour volunteer job for several inmates to move dead bodies of coronavirus victims.40 In October, a federal appeals court ruled that Texas does not have to provide more hand sanitizer to inmates who use wheelchairs at a geriatric prison, due to fears that it can be used to drink or start fires.41 With limited financial prospects in prison and limited access to

35 Maxfield Baker (Councilman, San Marcos City Council) in discussion with the authors, December 2020. 36 “Governor Abbott Announces $38 Million In Federal COVID-19 Emergency Funding For Local Governments,” April 15, 2020. Office of the Texas Governor Greg Abbott. https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-38-million-in-federal- covid-19-emergency-funding-for-local-governments. 37 Maxfield Baker (Councilman, San Marcos City Council) in discussion with the authors, December 2020. 38 Jolie McCullough, “Inmates report dangerous practices inside the Texas prison with the most coronavirus deaths,” The Texas Tribune, June 8, 2020, https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/08/texas-prison-coronavirus-deaths/ 39 Wendy Sawyer, “The steep cost of medical co-pays in prison puts health at risk,” Briefings (blog), The Prison Policy Initiative, updated April 19, 2017, https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2017/04/19/copays/. 40 Louise Hall, “Texas Prisoners ‘Paid $2 an Hour to Move Bodies of Coronavirus Victims’,” The Independent, November 20, 2020, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/texas-el-paso-prison-inmates-paid-move-coronavirus-victims-bodies-b1759474.html. 41 Jolie McCullough, “Federal appeals court says Texas doesn’t have to give geriatric inmates hand sanitizer for now,” The Texas Tribune, October 7, 2020, https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/07/texas-prisons-coronavirus-lawsuit/.

17 Catherine Taipe and Dylan Pollak

hygiene products, an important lifeline in the fight against COVID-19 has been virtually cut off.

Conclusion From our case studies of Pennsylvania and Texas, it is clear that despite best intentions and efforts from state and local governments, the United States was greatly unprepared to protect incarcerated people from COVID-19. Based on our case research and interviews with professionals deeply connected to this topic, we conclude with four recommendations. First, each state should create a centralized COVID-19 dashboard for their prison and jail populations to promote data collection transparency and accountability. Second, prisons and jails should adopt a mandatory testing policy for facility employees and inmates regardless of whether they are symptomatic or asymptomatic. Third, prisons and jails should not rely on solitary confinement as a method to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus as it negatively impacts the mental health of inmates. Finally, governments should tie emergency funding for prisons and jails to efforts to mitigate COVID-19, such as improved access to hygiene products like soap and hand sanitizer and accelerated vaccine distribution in prison systems.42 Per CDC guidelines released in late December 2020, correction officers are frontline essential workers placed in the second group to be vaccinated.43 However, prison inmates are not listed on the CDC website under any category to be vaccinated, which is problematic because even if all corrections officers get vaccinated achieving herd immunity in jails and prisons will be difficult. Massachusetts, by contrast, has included the state’s 6,500 inmates in their initial vaccine distribution phases.44 We believe other states should follow suit. Prisoners cannot escape the virus in their confined cells. While serving time for their crimes, no prisoner should be sentenced to a COVID-19 death.

42 Lena H. Sun, Isaac Stanley-Becker, Frances Stead Sellers, Lauri McGinley, Amy Goldstein, Christopher Rowland, and Carloyn Y Johnson, “Vaccines were a chance to redeem failures in the U.S. coronavirus response. What went wrong?” Washington Post, January 11, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-vaccine-slow-rollout/2021/01/11/2e804898-5100-11eb-bda4- 615aaefd0555_story.html. 43 “When Vaccine is Limited, who should get the Vaccine first?” Center for Disease Control and Prevention, updated January 8, 2021, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html. 44 Erin Tiernan, “94,000 living in Massachusetts jails, homeless shelters, group homes start getting coronavirus vaccines on Mon- d ay,” Boston Herald, January 13, 2021, https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01/13/94000-living-in-massachusetts-jails-homeless-shelters-group-homes-start-getting-coronavirus-vaccines-on-monday/.

18 The Impact of COVID-19 on the Public Sector ARJUN RAMACHANDRAN AND SIMON LEE

he coronavirus pandemic has changed the way the public sector in the United States operates on a day-to-day basis. Congress moved to virtual proceedings. The press worked Tovertime to keep up with the ever-increasing speed of breaking news. While there is no doubt that these past few months have been difficult for our public officials and workers, the pandemic has impacted the public sector at an institutional level. Although some occupations have not been as affected, there will certainly be long-term impacts on the sector as a whole. To study the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on the public sector, we briefly look at Congress, think tanks, and the press as case studies of the short term and long-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Our case research benefitted from several expert interviews.

US Congress Congress had to quickly modify centuries’ worth of daily in-person practices to adapt to the new work-from-home (WFH) environment the pandemic imposed. This remote work transition was particularly difficult for the larger of the two chambers, the US House of Representatives. From Representatives who did not know how to operate online video calls to undigitized work documents, there were a whole array of issues. Providing 435 members and nearly 9,420 staffers with proper teleworking capability was a tall task. Staff layoffs were inevitably made for offices to stay afloat. To assist with the transition, the Sergeant-At-Arms, in coordination with the Chief Administrative Officer, established the House Telework Readiness Center. This effort helped representatives and their staff to continue their work from home. It offered telework training and set up a hotline for any staffers in case they needed assistance.1 The Office of the Chief Administrative Officer also ordered 1,500 computers for representative offices while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set up a system to file bills and floor documents electronically.2 However, with all of these coordinated efforts, it still took nearly three to four months for the House to adapt to the new circumstances.

1 Katherine Tully-McManus, “Tech Help Offered for House Staffers Facing Potential Coronavirus Telework,” accessed December 2, 2020, https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/10/tech-help-offered-for-house-staffers-facing-potential-coronavirus-telework/. 2 Katherine Tully-McManus, “House Moves to Electronic Filing of Bills and Floor Documents to Reduce Staffing during Pandemic - Roll Call,” accessed December 2, 2020, https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/06/house-moves-to-electronic-filing-of-bills-and-floor- documents-to-reduce-staffing-during-pandemic/. Simon Lee is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University majoring in Inter- national Relations and Politics with minors in Cybersecurity & Interna- tional Conflict and Technical Writing. Simon interned at kglobal, a public affairs firm, in Washington, DC last fall and is currently a Government Relations Intern at NVG, LLC. Simon is also a competitive dancer on the CMU Bhangra team and is a journal writer for CMU’s The Triple Helix.

Arjun Ramachandran is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University studying International Relations and Politics with minors in Cybersecurity & Inter- national Conflict and Music Technology. He has been a project assistant in the CIRP Research Lab, a research assistant for Dr. Colin Clarke, and an intern at Voice of America for the “Plugged In” TV show with Greta Van Susteren. Arjun is also a musician and staff editor for CMU’s The Triple Helix. After graduation, Arjun aims to attend law school.

19 Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee

With fewer members and offices than the House, the Senate had a much smoother transition. In a virtual interview with a staffer on the Senate Committee on Rules and Administration, Vincent Brown explained how the initial transition included a lot of logistical work, ensuring each member had access to the appropriate software and technology needed to work from home.3 The Rules committee headed this effort, in consultation with the Sergeant- At-Arms, to ensure that the technology was certified and secure for use. While Congress quickly dealt with the technical aspect of the transition, the pandemic still deprived both chambers of the legislature of a crucial aspect: in-person interaction. Capitol Hill is a team-oriented work environment. However, the pandemic forced many staffers to re-evaluate how they communicated with people. Brown stated that “working in close proximity to other offices and staffers was very beneficial to nailing down the salient details in memos, documents, letters, etc.” Working from home inhibited this organic process that happens on the Hill nearly every day. From having run-in meetings to discussing bills over lunch, the pandemic forced staffers to resort to the rather tedious process of setting up meetings and calls in advance. Although the WFH environment provides more clarity in scheduling and structuring one’s day, it is still not comparable to the benefits of a close-knit environment. A 2019 American Political Science Association Task Force argued that three “fundamental” problems inhibit Congress’s ability to operate effectively: the external pacing problem, inter-branch pacing problem, and internal pacing problem.4 The external pacing problem describes how Congress has fallen behind the curve in “keeping up with technological advances.” The inter-branch pacing problem describes the inability of the legislative branch to “maintain capacity to operate as a co-equal branch” with the executive. Finally, the internal pacing problem shows the lag in Congress to “incorporate new technology” into its practices. In the end, APSA concluded that although there were apparent technical disadvantages in Congress, most issues were actually “cultural or organizational.”5 Now, there is no doubt that in-person legislating is far more effective but under the conditions imposed by the pandemic, Congress was able to follow through on a long-needed reevaluation of their practices.

State Legislatures From handling unemployment claims to enforcing lockdown, state legislatures across the country had their hands full with one crisis after another amidst the coronavirus pandemic. The Illinois state legislature, for example, had a challenging time transitioning to a virtual format. Resulting from dated state law, the General Assembly Organization Act states that “sessions of the General Assembly shall be held at the seat of government” while giving the governor the power to “convene the General Assembly at some other place...in case of pestilence or public danger.” Despite having a power trifecta in Illinois (with one party controlling the governorship and both houses of the state legislature), Governor Jay Robert Pritzker chose not to dictate where and when the general assembly met at the risk of blowback from legislators.6 This significantly impacted the House chamber of Illinois’ state legislature, according to Representative Stephanie Kifowit. “Many bills were filed that never came to a vote,” said Rep.

3 Vincent Brown, In discussion with Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee, November 23, 2020. 4 Claire Abernathy, Kevin Esterling, and Marci Harris, “APSA Task Force Memorandum: Congress, Technology, and Innovation,” LegBranch, October 2, 2019, https://www.legbranch.org/apsa-task-force-memorandum-congress-technology-and-innovation/. 5 Claire Abernathy, Kevin Esterling, and Marci Harris, “Congressional Modernization Jump-Started by COVID-19,” Brookings (blog), June 18, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2020/06/18/congressional-modernization-jump-started-by-covid-19/. 6 David Greising, “Commentary: Zoom-Zoom, Illinois — Legislative Deadlines Call for a Virtual General Assembly Meeting,” chicagotribune.com, accessed December 2, 2020, https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-coronavirus- pritzker-springfield-general-assembly-greising-20200430-4bb4lxsglvfa7dk4wmla6z77uu-story.html.

20 The Impact of COVID-19 on the Public Sector

Kifowit.7 In-person meetings abruptly stopped, and the staff was also sent home to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The following months after the initial lockdown proved to be very difficult for Illinois. The unemployment filing system got overloaded, and some eligible recipients went “nearly six weeks without a paycheck.” These problems did not just occur in Illinois. Legislatures around the country had a difficult time working over the past year, compounded by considerable unrest stemming from the George Floyd murder last summer and lockdown fatigue. While some legislatures were able to modify official proceedings during the pandemic, such as Wisconsin, which already had adopted a measure to allow members to vote remotely in emergencies, others had to explore new avenues to serve their constituents.8 Holding weekly ‘open-house’ calls became a regular practice amongst legislators. Although virtual legislating is not a practice that will stay, the newfound techniques of connecting with constituents will likely help garner better relations between the government and the public.9 The pandemic also had a major disruptive impact on political campaigns in the 2020 election year. Rep. Kifowit laid out how the public perception of elections typically go. “People only start listening to a campaign’s message around 4-6 weeks before election day, but this year, nearly 100 million people voted early, which forced campaigns to adapt their strategy.” Campaigning is a very hands-on process. From knocking on doors to holding rallies, a competent campaign needs to have robust field operation to get out the vote. However, the field operation looked different this season. Some races went 100 percent virtual and tried to reach constituents solely “People only start listening through phone calls and zoom calls, while others attempted to have a socially distanced door-to-door to a campaign’s message operation. Both methods yielded mixed results, around 4-6 weeks before according to Rep. Kifowit. While the vote margins election day, but this year, were higher for the campaigns that employed a door-to-door strategy, it did not guarantee a win. nearly 100 million people The impact COVID has had on elections will be voted early, which forced a long-lasting one. Campaigning will no longer campaigns to adapt their be the same, nor will ‘get out the vote’ efforts. As our legislatures adapt to modern times, it is only strategy.” -Illinois State appropriate that campaign practices evolve as well. Rep. Stephanie Kifowit

Think Tanks Think tanks provide the public and policymakers with a large amount of research and information. At last count, the United States has nearly two thousand think tanks, which is around a third of the world’s total.10 With the amount of research they provide, a sudden decrease in the efficiency and quality of the work provided by think tanks has significant implications for the public sector. Think tank workers and researchers often depend on strong personal relationships for internal collaboration on projects, efficiency, and continuous communication. With the WFH transition in March, the think tank industry experienced an enormous setback due to a sudden lack of individual contact, travel, and ability to interact with people on a personal

7 Stephanie Kifowit, In discussion with Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee, November 30, 2020. 8 Julie Lays, “Coronavirus: How It’s Changing State Legislatures,” accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/ coronavirus-changing-state-legislatures-magazine2020.aspx. 9 “Coronavirus: How It’s Changing State Legislatures.” 10 T. B. S. Staff, “The 50 Most Influential Think Tanks in the United States,” TheBestSchools.org, October 15, 2015, https:// thebestschools.org/features/most-influential-think-tanks/.

21 Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee

level. According to a survey conducted by On Think Tanks, over 85 percent of respondents stated that there are setbacks in their work and research due to COVID-19. Around 33 percent of respondents expected that only a handful of think tanks would do well from the crisis, and 9.5 percent stated that the pandemic could involve some having to close down or significantly downsize their operations.11 In addition, think tanks rely heavily on funding from public and private donors. From the same survey, many individuals stated that funding for their think tank had been cut for the rest of the year and that many think tanks expect harsh financial impacts in 2021 when the donors focus their funds on COVID-19 related issues.12 From our interview with Elbridge Colby, co-founder of The Marathon Initiative (a nonprofit research think tank dedicated to researching great power competition), it was evident that the WFH transition had a significant impact on his work and his personal life.13 With his work focusing on China, Russia, and US foreign policy, Colby mentioned that his yearly travel average of 200,000 miles dropped to zero in a short amount of time. As an expert in US foreign relations, Colby also had to participate in panels and other formal meetings, which are now online and executed from home instead of across the globe. When asked to describe how the think tank industry transitioned to the pandemic, Colby stated, “For three or four months, things were pretty dead in the think tank field. There wasn’t much going on virtually, but things started to pick up in September of this year [2020].” In addition to a relatively slow WFH transition, Colby also mentioned digital fatigue and the challenges of working remotely, another universal consequence of COVID-19 on the public sector and workforce. However, through our interview with Colby, we found out that his work saw some benefit from the WFH transition. As a think tank researcher, Colby saw improvements in efficiency, speed, and writing quality due to working from home. In explaining some positives from the COVID situation, Colby said, “Because the conferences, panels, and interpersonal relationships have kind of fallen off a cliff, I’ve had a lot of time to laser in on my writing. This has allowed me to try to be as thorough as possible in that.” Colby also mentioned that he thinks that the think tank day-to-day life will be different in the future, where people will not have to work a traditional nine-to-five schedule. Similar to Colby’s prediction, respondents toOn Think Tank’s survey stated that COVID-19 could push towards modernization and break the barriers of working limitations.14 From this, we can see that COVID-19 actually improved the workflow and efficiency of the think tank industry to some extent.

The Press The United States press is one of the largest and most important institutions within American society. With a responsibility to provide insightful and accurate information to the American public, an enormous hit to the press and media industry due to COVID-19 has large- scale implications for the United States. Like local businesses and other smaller institutions, COVID-19 had a large impact on local news outlets across the country and “shook the industry’s already weakened economic foundation. As ad revenue and the money generated by events sponsored by small publications started to evaporate, many papers have canceled print editions, laid-off workers, or asked readers for donations.”15 In addition to an already struggling print-based newspaper economy,

11 Enrique Mendizabal, COVID-19’s Effect on Think Tanks in 10 Headlines,“On Think Tanks COVID-19 Initiative,” accessed De- cember 3, 2020, https://onthinktanks.org/initiatives/on-think-tanks-covid-19-response/. 12 Enrique Mendizabal, “On Think Tanks COVID-19 Initiative.” 13 Elbridge Colby, In discussion with Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee, November 27, 2020. 14 Enrique Mendizabal, “On Think Tanks COVID-19 Initiative.” 15 Tiffany Hsu and Marc Tracy, “Local News Outlets Dealt a Crippling Blow by This Biggest of Stories,”The New York Times, March 23, 2020, sec. Business, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/media/coronavirus-local-news.html.

22 The Impact of COVID-19 on the Public Sector

COVID-19 hit hard, and publications have felt harsh repercussions from the pandemic. For example, the Austin Chronicle, in Texas, went from a weekly print publication to a bi-weekly schedule. In contrast, the Monterey County Weekly, in California, laid off multiple employees, cut hours for others, and its founder and chief executive agreed to take no salary whatsoever.16 Overall, COVID-19, itself a hot button news topic, has not slowed or stemmed the news cycle, so there has not been a large drop-off in content from the press and media. When interviewing Jennifer Griffin, national security correspondent forFox News and renowned reporter, we learned that journalists and reporters within the media industry have always found ways around general obstacles and hurdles in challenging situations.17 She explained that the news never really rests and that the US news cycle and reporters are responsible for keeping the news flow running smoothly and accurately for the American public. However, for individual reporters, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed their work dynamic. Griffin, who has an office within the Pentagon with direct access to national security officials, stated that over two-thirds of the Pentagon staff were ordered to work from home, which emptied the direct sources for national security information. Moreover, people who dealt with classified information had to work over insecure channels and networks. Griffin, in her description of how the Pentagon responded to the pandemic, stated, “One of the strongest pillars of our democracy is the open press and open access to information. The Pentagon was one of the first locations to put in preventative measures, which led to a diminished level of interaction with people. We were still participating in press conferences and some gaggles, but it felt like we were barely keeping the lights on. And the lack of press and quality of press is a failure to American democracy.” She mentioned how she missed the serendipity of running into someone and receiving information on a potential news topic or being pointed towards specific sources. “Without individual contact, it’s hard to get the context right sometimes,” she said. In terms of long-term implications of the pandemic on the press, Griffin explained that when there is a lack of information being spread around the public from the press and other sources due to the pandemic, conspiracy, and disinformation runs rampant across news and media channels. For example, Griffin described the period before the 2020 election where one of the United States’ global adversaries tried to amplify disinformation campaigns, which has large implications on national security and public safety. Specifically, Griffin said that her work has shifted a lot towards debunking “bad” information and trying to gain back the press’s credibility compared to before. However, Griffin believes that the press can return to normal and restore its credibility within the United States while fighting fake news and improving democracy.

Conclusion The coronavirus pandemic has had significant effects on key public sector institutions, including Congress, state legislature, think tanks, and the press. With a sudden decrease in interpersonal relationships and interactions due to the WFH transition, all sectors saw initial decreases in efficiency and effectiveness. Sectors that almost work exclusively on individual contacts, such as campaigning and congressional committee work, saw the most negative impact due to COVID-19. However, some industries saw less negative impact than others, namely the think tank industry and press. Some even mentioned that COVID-19 has allowed them to improve on their individual work, which was an interesting perspective to hear about. Overall, COVID-19 has raised new challenges to every industry within the United States. Within the public sector, we see the industries mentioned continue to transition and get used to the new working environment while tackling new problems and challenges as they arise.

16 Hsu and Tracy. 17 Jennifer Griffin, In discussion with Arjun Ramachandran and Simon Lee, December 2, 2020.

23 Coronavirus Relief Bills: Accessibility and Sustainability

MINSEO ANGELICA KIM AND ZOFIA MAJEWSKI

he coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has brought intense economic hardship to millions of Americans throughout the United States of America. In response, on March 27, T2020, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a bipartisan $2 trillion relief package signed into law by President Donald J. Trump that aimed to help the American people in an economic and health crisis.1 In this article, we examine the contents and inadequacies of the first “stimulus bill” or “relief” bill of the coronavirus pandemic era. Now, the second stimulus check has been passed, but citizens have already faced delays and issues with receiving their checks. It seems that many problems from the first round of stimulus checks were not resolved and remain as hurdles for citizens today. In this article, we will discuss the economic and societal implications of an unorganized and flawed government approach to instituting stimulus bills in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CARES Act: The initial plan The CARES Act was monumental in size at $2 trillion,2 with allocations of $250 billion for expanded unemployment insurance, $350 billion for small businesses, $300 billion for cash payments to households, $150 billion for aid to states, $100 billion for emergency funding for health care supplies and investments, and $450 billion for industry bailouts. Emphasizing “fast and direct” economic aid to Americans in distress, the CARES Act included significant aid for the lower working-class: Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). PUA covered almost all lost wages for those eligible at $600 per week, including those who were self-employed or gig- workers. PUA also aided those who were furloughed because of the coronavirus pandemic. For a short period of time, it seemed that corporations and small businesses alike were able to stay afloat with this aid. Despite short-term relief, a number of questions concerning accessibility and sustainability have emerged over time. We discuss some of the major issues in turn below.

Stimulus with an Expiration Date The pandemic, as of this writing in December 2020, still rages on. Yet as a relief bill, the CARES Act was meant more as a short-term band aid than long-term solution. The bill only seriously helped citizens for up to eight weeks during the most drastic economic crisis that the United States had seen since the Great Depression. A time-based relief package during an unpredictable global health crisis is bound to leave citizens and businesses in need. The CARES Act also favored large firms, by relying heavily on the Federal Reserve to

1 “The Treasury Department is Delivering COVID-19 Relief for All Americans” Policy Issues, US Department of the Treasury, accessed December 10, 2020. https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares. 2 “Summary of the $2 Trillion Federal CARES Act.” Client Alerts, Keeping You Informed, Parker Poe, Attorneys & Counselors at Law, accessed January 18, 2021. https://www.parkerpoe.com/news/2020/03/summary-of-the-2-trillion-federal-cares-act.

Minseo Angelica Kim is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University studying Psychology with a double minor in Philosophy and Politics & Public Policy. Last fall in Washington, DC, Angelica interned at Public Citizen as well as the Office of Monitoring and Combating Trafficking in Persons at the Department of State. On campus, she models in the Lunar Gala and Spirit Fashion Show. She is also a leader in Alpha Epsilon Delta, a professional pre-med fraternity, and the Animal Welfare Club.

24 Coronavirus Relief Bills: Accessibility and Sustainability allocate funds to bigger, more credit-worthy, businesses.3 In the Small Business Administra- tion’s implementation of the Paycheck Protection Program (or PPP, a program created with the CARES Act in its assistance to small businesses), lenders were not guided to prioritize disadvantaged smaller rural, minority, and women-owned businesses, a decision that negatively impacted those businesses with lower credit ratings.4

Leaving College Students Behind There are currently around 12.5 million college students in the United States. College students over the age of eighteen, identifying as dependents on their tax returns, did not receive any aid from the CARES Act and were deemed ineligible for the first round of stimulus checks.5 Parents could not claim additional $500 for children over the age of sixteen, completely shutting out college students from receiving any financial aid from the CARES Act during the pandemic. Thousands of college students who had lost jobs were still expected to pay rent and tuition without any financial support. With campuses shutting down, many students were kicked out of their dorms, lost working computers and other academic technology, and cancelled their meal plans. College-age students could have benefitted from the $1,200 stimulus checks that were given to all other age groups. In a Census survey, it was estimated that around sixteen million Americans had canceled college plans in fear of contracting the virus, and families with less than $75,000 income were twice as likely to have canceled their college plans.6 The CARES Act had the means of helping young adults through the Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund (HEERF), directing $14.25 billion to colleges and universities.7 Half of that amount was dedicated to emergency financial relief grants for college students experiencing pandemic-related disruptions. However, many colleges did not have adequate systems or outreach programs to properly direct those funds to students actually in need. Students faced more exclusion through HEERF’s specific and extensive regulations. International, undocumented, or those enrolled in distance-only programs were barred from receiving aid from HEERF. Interna- tional students faced the dilemma of returning to their native country or finding immediate re- placement housing in the States, while undocumented students found their families at loss with failing small businesses– all financial costs that could have been alleviated by the CARES Act.

3 Grace Enda, William G. Gale, and Claire Haldeman. “Careful or Careless? Perspectives on the CARES Act.” Brookings (blog), March 27, 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/03/27/careful-or-careless-perspectives-on-the-cares-act/. Kathryn Judge, “The Design Flaw At The Heart Of The CARES Act,” Forbes, April 20, 2020, accessed December 10, 2020, https://www.forbes. com/sites/kathrynjudge/2020/04/20/the-design-flaw-at-the-heart-of-the-cares-act/. 4 “Flash Report Small Business Administration’s Implementation of the Paycheck Protection Program Requirements,” Small Busi- ness Administration, May 8, 2020, 40. https://www.sba.gov/document/report-20-14-flash-report-small-business-administrations- implementation-paycheck-protection-program-requirements. 5 Ellie Rushing, “‘We Are Forgotten’: Despite Mounting Costs, College Students Are Excluded from $1,200 Stimulus Checks,” The Inquirer, April 8, 2020, accessed December 10, 2020. https://www.inquirer.com/education/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-college- students-excluded-philadelphia-20200408.html. 6 Al Tompkins, “College students are dropping out at an alarming rate.” Poynter, September 18, 2020, accessed January 16, 2021, https://www.poynter.org/newsletters/2020/college-students-are-dropping-out-at-an-alarming-rate/ 7 “Financial Assistance Related to COVID-19” Student Financial Services, Division of Enrollment Services, Carnegie Mellon Uni- versity, accessed December 10, 2020. https://www.cmu.edu/sfs/financial-aid/covid/index.html.

Zofia Majewski is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University pursuing an interdisciplinary degree in Vocal Performance and Politics & Public Policy while minoring in Environmental and Sustainability Studies. During the 2020-21 academic year, Zofia is interning as a writer for the Smithsonian Institution’s Folkways Magazine. She is looking to continue her studies at law school to eventually become an intellectual property attorney.

25 Minseo Angelica Kim and Zofia Majewski

Lack of Care for Minorities Alarmingly, recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that minorities were extremely disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 virus. These numbers could be attributed to factors like how people of color were more likely to be of a lower socioeconomic status, leading to higher possibilities of experiences with multigen- erational homes, crowded conditions, public transportation, essential service work, and lack of healthcare.8 Despite the pronounced need for financial assistance for affected minority families, data has shown that by late May (almost three months after the pandemic was declared a na-

tional emergency), more middle class households received checks than poor American families, and more white people (75 percent of white adults) were approved stimulus checks than Black (69 percent) and Hispanic (63 percent) people.9 Those who do not have social security numbers also were not eligible to receive any relief money. This distinction excludes relief checks for those who were Dreamers or families of those with only Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITIN).10 The CARES Act and PPP have not made it any easier for small minority, immigrant businesses. Hundreds of immigrant-owned small businesses like restaurants, gas stations, nail salons, dry cleaners, have been closed by government-mandated shutdowns. Data showed that immigrants became small business owners at four-times the rate than that of native born Americans,11 meaning more immigrants faced PPP restrictions and regulatory issues. However, immigrants and minority groups clearly lacked access to these stimulus programs. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) forms were created by trained accountants and often consisted of difficult terminology, yet were expected to be filled out by minorities who may not have been native speakers or lacked in education and/or resources. The IRS forms offered few languages outside of the default English, and even those forms were inevitably processed at a slower pace.12 During quarantine, most Americans relied on essential workers who made minimum wage to provide fresh produce, take-out delivery, and janitorial services that are essential for the economy and general welfare. However, many of these low-paid essential workers who risked their health were unprotected by the CARES Act. Unauthorized immigrants make up a quarter of farmworkers and eight percent of service workers.13 Yet the eleven million unauthorized immigrants (of which six million are taxpayers with an IRS-established ITIN), who were just as vulnerable to the virus as the other American taxpayers, were not eligible for CARES Act assistance. Even American citizens who had family with mixed immigration statuses (any family member used an ITIN) were denied stimulus checks. This absence of help not only hurt a huge community; it also put public health and safety at risk. Without financial assistance, undocumented workers were forced to work regardless of the government’s warnings to stay home, posing a risk to public health. If the undocumented workers contracted the virus, they then had no financial capacity to pay for medical attention, further worsening the impact of COVID in the United States. In the unprecedented situation of a global pandemic, when an emphasis on universal care and altruism was needed, minority communities, especially undocumented im-

8 “Why Is COVID-19 More Severely Affecting People of Color?” Mayo Clinic, August 13, 2020. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/expert-answers/coronavirus-infection-by-race/faq-20488802. 9 Aimee Picchi, “White Americans Got Their Stimulus Checks More Promptly than Blacks and Hispanics.” CBS News, July 17, 2020. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stimulus-checks-white-people-faster-black/. 10 Grace Enda, William G. Gale, and Claire Haldeman, “Careful or Careless? Perspectives on the CARES Act.” 11 FINSUM, “Immigrant Small Business Owners Left Behind by PPP.” Nasdaq, accessed December 10, 2020. https://www.nasdaq. com/articles/immigrant-small-business-owners-left-behind-by-ppp-2020-04-26. 12 Heather Long, Jeff Stein, Lisa Rein, and Tony Romm, “Stimulus checks and other coronavirus relief hindered by dated technology and rocky government rollout,” Washington Post, April 17, 2020, accessed January 16, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/17/stimulus-unemployment-checks-delays-government-delays/ 13 Nicole Narea, “For Immigrants without Legal Status, Federal Coronavirus Relief Is out of Reach,” Vox, May 5, 2020, https://www. vox.com/2020/5/5/21244630/undocumented-immigrants-coronavirus-relief-cares-act.

26 Coronavirus Relief Bills: Accessibility and Sustainability migrants, faced additional penalties that were fueled by racial disparities. Immigrants and college students alike have been calling for improved stimulus pack- ages that would include previously-excluded communities to be eligible for financial aid. Some think tanks have also recommended that all minority communities have abundant access to COVID-19 testing and treatment, as well as an expansion on unemployment benefits.14 All income-eligible residents, regardless of immigration status or identity, deserve to receive help from the US government in situations of great, unpredictable danger.

Problems with the IRS and Stimulus Checks The IRS was initially instructed to send stimulus checks to families as fast as possible, but this may have backfired, as multiple families faced glitches during the process of filing for assistance. The CARES Act was unevenly regulated and many either received their relief check late, at a different amount, or not at all. Those who did not receive a check, even if they explicitly applied for one, must now receive the amount in their 2021 tax returns, over a year after they were expecting, and needing, relief.15 When the CARES Act was first introduced, there were multiple reports that people had struggled to get any instruction from the IRS’ “Get My Payment” website. When using the IRS provided tools to track payment statuses, many users were rejected with the simple statement of “Payment Status Not Available”, facing no answers or instructions in fixing the situation.16 Furthermore, the website was only updated every twenty-four hours and kicked out users with multiple login attempts, forcing citizens to sit and wait for indefinite, delayed financial assistance in desperate situations. Social security recipients faced multiple delays in receiving their payments. Several households had missing or inaccurate checks, with multiple parents missing their promised additional $500 for each child they had under the age of sixteen. Millions of people using tax preparation services, specifically up to twenty-one million affected tax filers, were unable to receive their stimulus checks due to the lack of a compatible system between the IRS tools and outside tax preparation companies. It was clear that the government was not prepared to successfully and evenly administer aid within multiple communities.

Waiting for and Debating the Second Stimulus With the drawbacks of the CARES act in sight, the HEROES Act was passed by the House on May 15, 2020, but was not passed by the Republican majority Senate.17 In response, and a continuation, to the CARES Act, the HEROES Act covered many bases that were in need of revision in the CARES Act. At a total of $3 trillion, the HEROES Act sought to continue relief funding for a struggling nation. The bill sought to increase the amount of stimulus money for dependents (from CARES’ $500 to $1,200), extend general enhanced unemployment until Janu- ary 2021, expand eligibility for the Paycheck Protection Program, increase employee tax credits, expand eviction protections and moratoriums, and allocate $80 billion for school reopenings. Because of the lack of support for the HEROES Act, more bills have been introduced. A $1 trillion HEALS Act and subsequently $2.2 Trillion revised HEROES Act 2.0 have both been passed by the House but not approved by the Senate. Although these acts addressed the social welfare shortcomings of the CARES Act, they did not all cover big-business bailouts. The Senate

14 Narea, “For Immigrants without Legal Status, Federal Coronavirus Relief Is out of Reach.” 15 “What to Know about the Economic Impact Payments (Stimulus Checks)” Get It Back: Tax Credits for People Who Work.” Cen- ter on Budget & Policy Priorities, accessed December 10, 2020, https://www.eitcoutreach.org/tax-filing/coronavirus/what-to-know- about-the-economic-impact-payments-stimulus-checks/. 16 Heather Long and Michelle Singletary, “Glitches Prevent $1,200 Stimulus Checks from Reaching Millions of Americans.” Wash- ington Post, April 16, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/coronavirus-cares-stimulus-check/. 17 Nita M. Lowey, “Actions - H.R.6800 - 116th Congress (2019-2020): The Heroes Act.” Webpage, July 23, 2020., https://www. congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6800/all-actions.

27 Minseo Angelica Kim and Zofia Majewski

has prioritized the economy of credit-worthy businesses over the aid of working and lower- class citizens. The HEALS Act is the only one of these bills that addresses coronavirus liability protections for large businesses, hospitals, and schools–with liability shields lasting for up to five years.18 Although no one bill has promised to cover every need of the people, the need for a comprehensive bill Congress can compromise on transcends party lines. Because a second relief bill had yet to pass through both the House and the Senate until late December 2020, the country hovered in its economic depression while clinging onto the last rewards of the CARES Act. The media had prepared the public for the worst, with sources stating that citizens should not be expecting a second round of stimulus checks before the end of the year.19 A last-minute effort to answer the public’s pleas had been achieved with President Trump’s signage of a $900 million pandemic relief package on the twenty-first of December.20 In light of the newest COVID-19 era stimulus package, there are already complaints and deficiencies similar to the ones aforementioned. In this second finalized stimulus bill, many are still awaiting their promised checks, midway through January 2021.21 The IRS, legally required to get checks to the accounts of American citizens by January 15, has, in the process, sent some funds to “inactive or temporary accounts that taxpayers don’t have access to.” Millions of Americans will be impacted by this lag in receival of stimulus money, and will have to file the lost payments in their 2020 tax returns, again forfeiting the general purpose of the institution of the stimulus bill before the new year. Citizens must look toward eclectic news articles to find answers for their absence of aid, and those who do not have the luxury to have a smart phone to google every issue they might have at their fingertips, sit in confusion and await answers from tax companies such as TurboTax and H&R Block.22

Conclusion With the unorganized approach to introducing any new and comprehensive relief bills, the IRS, US Treasury, and government has been inconsistent in its responsibility to help the American public in a time of dire need and was underprepared to assist the entire nation with imperative stimulus funds. The government has not provided a sustainable, consistent, and accessible economic aid package even after nine months of this global pandemic. The IRS has continued to use an inadequate and confusing system that does not match the demands of the people during the coronavirus pandemic. With the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and now split Senate, law- makers are having trouble compromising and creating a bill that will benefit everyone. This new stimulus package is an insufficient band aid as people desperately await normal life and vaccine distribution. Due to the gravity of the virus, there should be little hesitation. Every day, families and businesses grow more desperate for financial assistance, and more people face negative impacts to their health, safety, and finances. A large comprehensive relief bill is in the sights of the Biden-Harris Administration, but America will remember its suffering experienced until that point.

18 Dale Smith, “Stimulus Package: How the New Heroes Act Compares to the CARES Act from March.” CNET, accessed December 10, 2020, https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/stimulus-package-how-the-new-heroes-act-compares-to-the-cares-act-from- march/. 19 Katie Lobosco, “Don’t Expect a Second Stimulus Check This Year.” Cable News Network, November 30, 2020, https://www.cnn. com/2020/11/30/politics/stimulus-checks-covid-relief-congress/index.html. 20 Katie Lobosco and Tami Luhby. “Here’s What’s in the Second Stimulus Package.” Cable News Network, accessed January 16, 2021. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/20/politics/second-covid-stimulus-package-details/index.html. 21 Tara Siegel Bernard, “Some People Are Already Experiencing Delays Getting Their Second Stimulus Payments.”The New York Times, January 6, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/business/stimulus-check-delay.html. 22 Karin Price Mueller “Second Stimulus Check Update: Where’s My Check? What If It Doesn’t Come? Can I Track My Payment?” nj.com, January 18, 2021. https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/01/second-stimulus-check-update-wheres-my-check-what-if-it- doesnt-come-can-i-track-my-payment.html.

28 Economic Effects of COVID-19 in the United States and Penn- sylvania JIVAK NISCHAL AND OMASAN RICHARDSON

he coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had devastating economic impacts around the country and the world. There have been over 100 million cases worldwide, with this figure Tcontinuing to rise as the death count surpasses two million as of January 15, 2021.1 In the United States, the number of total cases has surpassed twenty-three million, while the number of daily cases continues to rise at a rapid rate, with over 230,000 new cases on January 14, 2021 alone.2 In many places, hospitals are overrun and hospital beds are in short supply. Despite the grim legacy of the pandemic, the end may be in sight and not all hope is lost. Several companies (namely, Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech) have vaccines that have been successfully tested, approved by the FDA, and are increasingly available for distribution.3 With lockdowns occurring for an extended period of time, along with continued restrictions on businesses, many small businesses and all industries have been hit hard by the pandemic. In this article, we review some of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on key sectors of the US economy, including small businesses and three industries (the cruise industry, movie industry, and food delivery industry). We also discuss the economic impacts on Pennsylvania in particular, both because it is of interest to the Carnegie Mellon community but also because many of Pennsylvania’s challenges are illustrative of economic effects felt in many states. We conclude by discussing how the economy can recover from this devastating pandemic.

The Effect on the US Economy Since the pandemic began, many Americans businesses suffered and families faced issues paying rent or putting food on the table. This was a result of an inability to work in the

1 “Coronavirus Update (Live),” Worldometer, accessed January 15, 2021, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_ campaign=homeAdvegas1?. 2 “CDC COVID Data Tracker,” Centers For Disease Control And Prevention, accessed January 15, 2021, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid- data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days. 3 Shawn Radcliffe, “Here’s Exactly Where We’re At With Vaccines And Treatments For COVID-19,”Healthline, January 22, 2021, https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-exactly-where-were-at-with-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19#COVID-19-vaccines.

Jivak Nischal is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University pursuing a double major in International Relations and Politics and Psychology. While participating in the Washington Semester Program last fall, Jivak interned at DC Hunger Solutions. Having grown up in England before moving to Pittsburgh at the age of eleven, he is interested in foreign affairs, international relations, and comparative politics. Additionally, he is very passion- ate about social justice issues within the United States.

Omasan Richardson is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University majoring in Ethics history and Public Policy with a minor in Politics and Public Pol- icy. Omasan interned with The Mellman Group last fall as a student in the Washington Semester Program. He is a native to Lancaster, Pennsylvania, a rural area in south central Pennsylvania. This informed his decision to focus on Pennsylvania for this article. In his free time, he enjoys relaxing with friends and exploring different restaurants.

29 Jivak Nischal and Omasan Richardson

traditional sense, and even with businesses and industries opening back up, restrictions have meant that people are unable to work or earn at the same capacity as beforehand. Congress passed a stimulus package in April 2020 to ease some of the economic pain during an uncertain time. Among other provisions, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act gave qualifying individuals up to $1,200 per adult with an extra $500 per child. This bill was the equivalent of a temporary band-aid that did not really end the COVID-19 recession. One-time stimulus payment did not address unemployment rates being much higher than before or longer-term economic problems. A second COVID-19 relief package was only passed at the end of 2020 even as pandemic raged and economy struggled.

The Effect on Small Businesses Nationally The COVID-19 pandemic has been especially devastating for small businesses. Starting with lockdowns in March of 2020, any business deemed non-essential was told to close down, including small businesses like restaurants. This differed somewhat across states with different levels of closure, but overall there was a massive decrease in the number of businesses open. Since January, small businesses alone have seen a decrease in around 20 percent of their revenue.4 As revenue shrank, many small businesses were forced to fire or furlough their staff, increasing unemployment. Some 98,000 small businesses around the country closed down for good, adding to the economic shock.5 By providing loans and grants for small businesses, the CARES Act is estimated to have increased GDP by about five percent in the short-run. However, it is currently unknown if this increase will help accelerate economic recovery going forward and if it does, by how much.6

The Cruise Industry The tourism industry was hit hard by the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has a system in which they categorize how safe it is to travel or attend certain events during health crises, ranging from Level 1 (very basic precautions) to Level 2 (enhanced caution), Level 3 (avoid non-essential travel), and Level 4 (the highest and new level of caution). Cruise ships, one particularly impacted tourist sector, are at a level 4.7 All cruise ship travel is recommended to be avoided, as even without a pandemic it was common for diseases to spread on ships. Given how infectious COVID-19 is, cruise passengers are at extremely high risk of catching the disease. Cruises have found it difficult to adapt. Many cruise ships have just been sitting idly by as it is unsafe to use them currently. This was a huge hit to their revenue as many ships would be running for months at a time and have now not been able to run since March. Since January 2020, cruiselines have seen a 70 to 80 percent decrease in stock prices. This is massive as cruises were the largest growing travel sector before the pandemic.8 There have been some ideas on how to make some money during this time, including the idea of a “cruise to nowhere.”9 Such cruise ships would not port at any cities and mostly just

4 Lauren Bauer, Kristin E. Broady, Wendy Edelberg, and Jimmy O’Donnell, “Ten Facts About COVID-19 And The U.S. Economy,” Brookings, September 17, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/research/ten-facts-about-covid-19-and-the-u-s-economy/. 5 Suzanne Phan, “Small Business Saturday Critical For Local Retailers Hit Hard By COVID-19 Pandemic,” Komo News, November 28, 2020, https://komonews.com/news/local/small-business-saturday-critical-for-local-retailers-hit-hard-by-covid-19-pandemic. 6 Paulson, Mariko. “The Long-Run Fiscal and Economic Effects of the CARES Act.” Penn Wharton Budget Model, May 5, 2020, -ac cessed January 15, 2021, https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/5/5/long-run-economic-effects-of-cares-act. 7 “COVID-19 and Cruise Ship Travel.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, accessed December 10, 2020, https://wwwnc. cdc.gov/travel/notices/covid-4/coronavirus-cruise-ship. 8 Monique Giese, “COVID-19 Impacts on Global Cruise Industry,” KPMG, July 23, 2020, accessed January 15, 2021. https://home. kpmg/xx/en/blogs/home/posts/2020/07/covid-19-impacts-on-global-cruise-industry.html. 9 “Covid-19: Singapore ‘Cruise to Nowhere’ Ends after Passenger Tests Positive,”BBC News, December 9, 2020, https://www.bbc. com/news/world-asia-55241282.

30 Economic Effects of COVID-19 in the United States and Pennsylvania travel on the ocean, enjoying the amenities of the cruise ship like food and entertainment all while mandating social distancing and mask wearing. With constant coronavirus testing, this seemed like a good way to recoup some of the lost revenue during the pandemic. However, within a week of the first cruise to nowhere, a passenger tested positive for COVID-19. This was due to the fact that the mandatory test that passengers were required to have before getting on the cruise was two to three days before they boarded the ship. The positive test case was thankfully caught quickly which some may argue shows the system works. However, this simply shows that engaging in activities like going on cruise ships is dangerous during this time, even if precautions are put in place.10 Following the pandemic, the industry will likely see a huge influx in customers due to people wanting to travel after being locked down for so long. So, this temporary lull is a test to see if cruises can whether the storm of having a drastically reduced customer base.

The Movie Industry The COVID-19 pandemic essentially imperiled if not broke the business model of the movie industry. During the pandemic, many movies that were still in production were pushed back as it was unsafe for actors to be on crowded sets. Those movies that had finished production and were set for a theatrical release, had the problem that was a large part of their revenue was expected to be made back in ticket sales. Cineworld, the company that owns Regal Cinema, has seen a stock decrease of over 50 percent of its pre-pandemic level.11 Streaming technology has offset some of these losses. With most media companies having a streaming platform that they are connected with (such as Netflix, HBO Now, or Disney+), media giants have been able to move many movies planned for theaters to their platforms with mixed results. The companies have been using a “pay-for early access” model. Disney released their live-action Mulan remake to their platform in which if you wanted to watch early it would cost thirty dollars.12 This, while more expensive than a single movie ticket, might be more economical for some people, especially if they planned to take others to see it with them. This model has turned out to be a big success, if the movie has enough of a reputation to draw people to buy. Universal Studios’ movie Trolls World Tour, an animated family film about singing trolls, made more on demand in a shorter time span than their other movies in the franchise had made in five months in theaters.13 Two major reasons for the success of streaming are the changes in people’s habits and revenue splits. With everyone stuck at home, parents spending twenty dollars for infinite viewing is a much better deal than taking their young children out for a one-time event. This is also a win for movie studios like Universal, as the studios would only receive about 50 percent of the revenue from movie theaters before the pandemic. However, with digital rentals through streaming, a much larger portion of revenue goes towards the studios.14 The future for movie theaters is questionable as studios have seen that they might not need to be as reliant on them as they have been in the past given the rise of streaming.

10 Patrick Oppmann and Marnie Hunter. “Covid-19 Outbreak Strikes First Cruise to Resume Sailing in the Caribbean.” CNN, No- vember 11, 2020, accessed January 15, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/caribbean-cruise-seadream-1-covid/index.html. 11 Frank Pallotta, “Movie Theaters Are Struggling to Survive the Pandemic. Many Won’t,”CNN , October 5, 2020, accessed January 15, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/05/media/movie-theaters-regal-closing/index.html. 12 Nicole Lyn Pesce, “$30 To Watch ‘Mulan’ on Disney+ Right Now Is Either Outrageous or an Amazing Deal, Depending on Who You Ask.” MarketWatch, September 5, 2020, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/30-to-watch-mulan-on-disney-is-either-outrageous-or-an-amazing-deal-depending-on-who-you-ask-2020-08-05. 13 Sarah Whitten, “‘Trolls World Tour’ Made More for Universal in 3 Weeks on Demand than ‘Trolls’ Did in 5 Months in Theaters.” CNBC, April 28, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/trolls-world-tour-made-more-money-for-universal-than-trolls.html. 14 Ibid.

31 Jivak Nischal and Omasan Richardson

Food Delivery Industry One industry that has been able to carve out a larger niche in the world than before the pandemic is food delivery services. Services like Postmates, UberEATS, or Door dash have seen huge growth in revenue. The role they had in the market before COVID-19 was perfectly suited for a pandemic. They work with smaller local restaurants to give those without the infrastructure a delivery option to still serve customers. They also provide a source of income for anyone willing to drive for them. This tackles two major issues that arose from the pandemic, unemployment and the decline in small businesses. Food delivery services have been so successful that UberEATS as a subdivision of Uber, the ride sharing platform, has actually taken over the original division as the breadwinner for the company.15 Even as some restaurants opened back up for in-store dining, delivery still saw widespread growth. Similarly, the pandemic spurred a massive increase in grocery delivering services as well. Instacart alone saw its downloads grow by 200 percent during the initial outbreak.16 How people procure food may have changed forever.

COVID-19 and the Pennsylvania Economy Relatively speaking, Pennsylvania was not hit particularly hard in the early stages of the pandemic. By the summer of 2020, daily new cases were hovering around the one thousand mark. However, since early October, the number of daily cases has been rising, with daily cases surpassing five thousand in mid-November and then surpassing ten thousand by early December.17 With over eighteen thousand people having died from the virus in Pennsylvania alone, the number of cases continuing to increase has had profound effects on the state.18 The economy of the state even reached a point where it was in the worst recession since the Great Depression.19 The COVID-19 pandemic has meant that many people whose livelihoods rely on interaction with others or large gatherings have suffered immensely. Pennsylvania, for example, has many independent artists, writers, and performers, an industry that has taken a large hit during the pandemic. Many Pittsburgh-based artists have been unable to hold classes or performances since March 2020.20 Not only are they unable to bring in money, but most of their lives revolve around interaction with other people, so losing that integral part of their daily lives has had damaging effects on their mental health, too. Other top industries in Pennsylvania include healthcare services, broadcasting and telecommunications, and various administrative and support services.21 These are all industries that require human interaction, and while some can be moved to an online platform, there is no doubt that they suffer as a result of the various restrictions that have been put in place due to COVID-19. As a result, the economy has taken an enormous hit, the like of which has no comparison in recent history. Many of the issues surrounding the economy nationally also affect Pennsylvania locally.

15 Kirsten Korosec and Alex Wilhelm, “Uber’s Delivery Business Is Now Larger than Ride-Hailing,” TechCrunch, August 6, 2020, https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/06/ubers-delivery-business-is-now-larger-than-ride-hailing/. 16 Daniela Coppola, “Grocery Delivery App Growth Due to Coronavirus U.S. 2020.” Statista, November 27, 2020, accessed January 15, 2021, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104519/grocery-delivery-app-growth-coronavirus-us/. 17 “Pennsylvania Coronavirus Map And Case Count,” New York Times, accessed January 16, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/ interactive/2020/us/pennsylvania-coronavirus-cases.html. 18 “ CDC COVID Data Tracker,” Centers For Disease Control And Prevention, accessed January 15, 2021. 19 Göktuğ Morçöl, “Economic Recovery In The Face Of COVID-19,”Penn State Social Science Research Institute, June 25, 2020, https://covid-19.ssri.psu.edu/articles/economic-recovery-face-covid-19. 20 Teake Zuidema, “For These Pittsburgh-Area Performing Artists, The Pandemic Has Meant Lost Work, Reflection,”Publicsource, October 28, 2020, https://www.publicsource.org/pittsburgh-performing-artists-lost-work-hip-hop-ballet-drag-tuba/. 21 “Top Industries In PA,” Cumberland Area Economic Development Corporation, accessed January 15, 2021, https://cumberland- business.com/news/top-industries-in-pa/.

32 Economic Effects of COVID-19 in the United States and Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has extended unemployment benefits to help counteract the mass unemployment the state faces.22 Governor Tom Wolf has allocated $96 million with added assistance from the federal government to help out small businesses in the state that are struggling. However, the state has also received considerable backlash to the various restrictions placed on the way in which people can run businesses or assemble during the pandemic. Coronavirus restrictions in Pennsylvania were struck down by a federal court after four Western counties filed a lawsuit, citing unfair restrictions placed upon people and their businesses.23 While the government in Pennsylvania has been working on plans to get the state back to normal, this will likely have to be done through programs such as contact tracing and limiting the amount of access older adults have with the world.

What can be done? COVID-19 has wrought both direct and indirect economic damage both nationally and in Pennsylvania, with the US experiencing a recession comparable only to the Great Depression, while various industries have had to adapt to survive. The economic decline in Pennsylvania appears bleak, but this is not to say that there are not ways to improve the situation. Governor Tom Wolf has stated that while reopening businesses to aid economic recovery is extremely important, the health of Pennsylvania’s residents is of the utmost priority. As a result, they plan to proceed with returning to work cautiously and reopening different parts of the state depending on how bad the COVID-19 cases are in a particular area. In addition, the commonwealth is partnering with Carnegie Mellon University to create a data-driven decision support tool to enable a balance between maximizing economic results while minimizing health risks.24 Still, other steps must be taken in order to help the economy recover from this pandemic. First, in order to help the economy, recover sustainably, state and local policymakers must take into account the geographic differences of various counties, due to the fact that urban and rural areas have been affected very differently in terms of the industries affected and the amount of people that have been infected by COVID-19. For example, consistent with national patterns, urban counties in Pennsylvania have experienced many more coronavirus cases than rural ones, which means that they cannot be opened up with the same speed, as this will just lead to higher rates of infection. Ultimately, there is not, nor should there be, a tradeoff between lives and livelihoods.25 The economy cannot function without healthy people, and people cannot survive if they are not able to work or operate their businesses, so it must be understood that the economy bouncing back is intertwined with reducing cases and combating the pandemic. As a result, widespread vaccine distribution is crucial for industries to function again and for the economy to recover.26 Until then, widespread contact tracing and testing will make going back to work safer. If the government is able to put resources towards testing and vaccine distribution, the virus will be controlled, people will become healthier, and the economy will begin to recover after the massive damage it has sustained.

22 “Plan for Pennsylvania,” Governor Tom Wolf, November 16, 2020, https://www.governor.pa.gov/plan-for-pennsylvania/. 23 Alison Durkee, “Pennsylvania Coronavirus Restrictions Struck Down By Federal Court”. Forbes, September 14, 2020, https:// www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/09/14/pennsylvania-coronavirus-restrictions-struck-down-tom-wolf-stay-at-home-order- federal-court/?sh=3096b7534bdf 24 “Process To Reopen Pennsylvania,” Governor Tom Wolf, November 19, 2020, https://www.governor.pa.gov/process-to-reopen- pennsylvania/. 25 Molly Callahan, “How Will The Economy Bounce Back After COVID-19?,”News@Northeastern, May 1, 2020, https://news. northeastern.edu/2020/05/01/how-will-the-economy-bounce-back-after-covid-19/. 26 VOA News, “World Economy Will Bounce Back In 2021, OECD Says,” Voice Of America, December 1, 2020, https://www. voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/world-economy-will-bounce-back-2021-oecd-says.

33 Redefining National Security Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

AUDREY PEDERSON AND ERI PHINISEE n an era of great power competition, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has created extraordinary pressure on US policymakers to expand the definition of US national security Ibeyond military superiority and deterrence overseas to incorporate domestic public health. The current public health crisis threatens to cripple US defense capabilities and socio-economic stability, which undermines the ability of the United States to maintain the global balance of power and continue to successfully counter threats posed by adversaries like China and Russia. In this article, we survey recent efforts by the US government to preserve the defense industrial base (DIB) and related supply chains and innovate technology for pandemic management. We conclude that more must be done to eliminate remaining vulnerabilities in the US defense infrastructure. To wit, the government must prioritize domestic over foreign suppliers to establish a more secure industrial base and invest in ethical technological solutions to the pandemic so that the foundations of national security are protected.

The Defense Industrial Base COVID-19 dealt a serious blow to the defense industrial base. In response, Congress allocated $10.5 billion to the Department of Defense (DOD) in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act passed in March 2020. $688 million of this package was allocated specifically for the industrial base in order to support vulnerable manufacturers of DOD equipment such as submarine torpedo tubes, engines for aircraft, and microelectronics.1 As of October 1, 2020, DOD’s Office for Acquisition and Sustainment has allocated $100 million in stimulus funding to loans for government-contracted companies, stabilization of fragile DIB sectors, and expansion efforts across supply chains to improve their resiliency.2 To date, the DOD’s COVID-19 Response has focused on using CARES Act funding to invest back into weakened supply chains so as to ensure jobs, safety, and consistency across the industry. Still, the DIB faces significant hurdles, particularly with regard to modernization and readiness. Take Section 3610 of the CARES Act, for example.3 This section allowed government agencies to reimburse contractors for payments made to preserve their workforce through shutdown periods but failed to appropriate funds necessary to do so. The DOD, therefore, was forced to use funds allocated for other purposes to reimburse contractors. In her testimony before the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions & Sustainment Ellen Lord noted that DOD simply lacks the funds to more fully reimburse

1 Joe Gould, “Pentagon Taps $688 Million in Coronavirus Aid for Defense Industry,” Defense News, June 2, 2020, https://www. defensenews.com/congress/2020/06/02/688m-in-covid-aid-helping-defense-firms-per-dod-plan/. 2 Ellen M Lord, “Supply Chain Integrity Witness Testimony” (United States Senate: US Committee on Armed Services, October 1, 2020), https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Lord_%2010-01-20.pdf. 3 “Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act or the ‘‘CARES Act”,” accessed December 10, 2020, https://www.congress. gov/116/bills/hr748/BILLS-116hr748enr.pdf.

Audrey Pederson is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University majoring in International Relations and Politics with a minor in Russian Studies. Last fall Audrey interned at The Heritage Foundation in the Center for National Defense. She also has experience as a research assistant and director’s fellow in CMU’s Center for International Relations and Politics. Audrey is a member of the CMU Varsity Softball Team and works with the Steel City NROTC.

34 Redefining National Security Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

DOD contractors without jeopardizing modernization and readiness efforts.4 What’s more, although CARES Act funding has been beneficial as a short-term palliative measure to protect defense supply chains and fragile related industries, more pro-active investments are necessary to guarantee that readiness efforts are sustained in the long-term. One of the best ways to maintain supply chain stability and readiness is to work with contractors and suppliers directly. Currently, one of the greatest threats to US manufacturing and DIB is dependence on foreign suppliers, especially for microelectronics, rare earth metals, hypersonic technologies, and artificial intelligence.5 Right now, the US manufactures only 12 percent of microelectronics and just 3 percent of the packaging and testing of such products happens domestically.6 A 2018 DOD report notes that “China is the single or sole supplier for a number of specialty chemicals used in munitions and missiles” while foreign carbon fiber sources from Japan and Europe are significant vulnerabilities as well.7 Dependence on foreign manufacturers poses considerable threat to national security should an adversary target these suppliers during a period of conflict or vulnerability such as the pandemic. This would disrupt the entire defense supply chain, undermining US military readiness and defense capabilities. Reliance on foreign manufacturers goes beyond defense equipment into many other industries such as healthcare. Personal protective equipment (PPE) and materials needed to administer vaccines are also often outsourced to external suppliers, creating opportunities for risk similar to those mentioned above. Lord and the DOD have acknowledged this threat and have allocated $213 million of CARES Act funding for efforts to re-shore essential healthcare manufacturing and increase capacity for the healthcare supply chain.8 This funding, in addition to the loan disbursement, creates ample opportunity to stabilize and restore healthcare supply chains while also giving companies the means to continue operation. Decreasing dependence on foreign suppliers has significant economic benefits, despite increased labor costs. Doing so would not only limit security threats but would also encourage employment and economic growth domestically given that jobs and trade opportunities would return to the United States and its allies. Creating greater chances for employment and stability at home will be crucial in getting the American economy back on its feet following the pandemic, therefore making this investment not only wise, but necessary. Representative Mac Thornberry (R-TX) mentioned that in some ways, the coronavirus pandemic has shed light on vulnerabilities in the defense industrial base. “We have made significant progress, partly because of COVID, in understanding where the suppliers and

4 Lord, “Supply Chain Integrity Witness Testimony.” 5 David Vergun, “DOD Takes Steps to Safeguard Supply Chain,” US Department of Defense, September 29, 2020, https://www. defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2365123/dod-takes-steps-to-safeguard-supply-chain/. 6 Todd Lopez, “COVID-19 Response Sparks Efforts to Strengthen Supply Chain,” US Department of Defense, September 29, 2020, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2365573/covid-19-response-sparks-efforts-to-strengthen-supply-chain/. 7 Department of Defense, “Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resil- iency of the United States” (Washington, DC: Washington, DC: US Department of Defense, September 2018), https://media.defense. gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND%20DEFENSE- INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF. 8 Lord, “Supply Chain Integrity Witness Testimony.”

Eri Phinisee is a junior at Carnegie Mellon University majoring in Cogni- tive Science and Decision Science. She has experience as a research analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, a summer researcher at the Army Research Laboratory’s Human Research and Engineering Directorate, and has been a research assistant with CMU’s Language Production and Executive Control Lab as well as University of Pittsburgh’s Dong Lab, a neuroscience facility.

35 Audrey Pederson and Eri Phinisee

components of our various defense systems come from, and the vulnerability of some of those things,” said Thornberry.9 In this way, COVID-19 has simply exposed issues in the DIB that already existed, suggesting that the virus has provided more motive for addressing such risks more adamantly. One solution is to re-shore supply chains. Reshoring supply chains will allow the DOD to invest back into domestic suppliers, boosting the economy and providing stability that the CARES Act did not initially supply. Another solution is to increase dependence on allied countries rather than potential adversaries like China. This would create greater economic benefits not captured by US firms. Further, keeping the DIB within the US and allied countries will increase readiness efforts both for the military and in the public health sector. Such efforts will help to build trust back in government operations and across society as a whole. In this digital age, technology is crucial for the future of national defense and public health. Increased DOD investment in international bodies like the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA)10 would facilitate using technology to promote public health and international stability. Global defense and health networks like the GHSA would benefit from emerging technologies and industrial base modernization efforts as they could help to digitize supply chains, making them more synchronous and sustainable through crises like the pandemic.11

Technology and Public Trust While the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the American defense infrastructure and forced an urgent reevaluation of the nation’s tactical military readiness, it also highlighted another critical component of national security and its vulnerability in crises like this: public trust. Citizens need to feel safe not only from foreign threats, but also unthreatened by the society in which they live, as arranged by their government—because the government cannot build a competitive and resilient country without their trust. The national security threat that the country currently faces in the form of a pandemic is driven by a series of negligent human behaviors in a heavily interconnected world. As such, the solution inevitably entails closer surveillance of individual actions. In the era of “big data,” smartphones, robots, and artificial intelligence, technology naturally becomes the perfect tool to safely track and control the vast number of social practices perpetuating the pandemic. The government has adopted digital technologies for epidemiological surveillance, rapid case identification, and interruption of community transmission, most notably automated contact- tracing applications which use cell phone location data or Bluetooth technology to identify exposed individuals.12 Programs running on computer vision have been developed to detect mask-wearing, social distancing, and hotspot zones in public spaces.13 Drones have even been observed flying over communities, enforcing social-distancing regulations.14 To protect homeland security, the DOD has taken a leading role in pandemic response, and technology can also be found at the center of their effort. A data platform called Tiberius

9 Launch of the 2021 Index of U.S. Military Strength (The Heritage Foundation, 2020), https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/ virtual-event-launch-the-2021-index-us-military-strength. 10 “The World Is Better Prepared to Respond To COVID-19 Because Of The Global Health Security Agenda,” Global Health Secu- rity Agenda, July 23, 2020, https://ghsagenda.org/2020/07/23/joint-statement-of-the-global-health-security-agenda-steering-group/. 11 Jim Kilpatrick, “Managing Supply Chain Risk and Disruption: COVID-19,” Deloitte, 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/ pages/risk/articles/covid-19-managing-supply-chain-risk-and-disruption.html. 12 “States’ Use of Digital Surveillance Technologies to Fight Pandemic Must Respect Human Rights,” Freedom House, April 2, 2020, https://freedomhouse.org/article/states-use-digital-surveillance-technologies-fight-pandemic-must-respect-human-rights. Jobie Budd et al., “Digital Technologies in the Public-Health Response to COVID-19,” Nature Medicine 26, no. 8 (August 2020): 1183–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1011-4. 13 “Covid-19 Technology Solutions | AI Enabled Digital Solutions,” Software Development Company (blog), accessed December 10, 2020, https://www.leeway- hertz.com/covid-19-technology-solutions/. Emanuel Moss and Jacob Metcalf, “High Tech, High Risk: Tech Ethics Lessons for the COVID-19 Pandemic Response,” Patterns 1, no. 7 (October 9, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2020.100102. 14 Jay Stanley, “Technology and Liberties in the Fight Against Coronavirus,” American Civil Liberties Union, May 19, 2020, https:// www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/technology-and-liberties-in-the-fight-against-coronavirus/.

36 Redefining National Security Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic assists Operation Warp Speed by managing various data integral to coordinating effective vaccine distribution such as clinical trials, production of vaccines and related medical supplies, supply chain, and delivery.15 The Defense Threat Reduction Agency and Defense Innovation Unit at the DOD have applied machine learning to invent a wearable device that measures a person’s key biomarkers to predict COVID-19 before symptoms even arise.16 However, many of these technological applications violate privacy and exploit personal data without the individual’s consent, despite many such applications having yet unproven levels of effectiveness.17 Concerns have been raised over invasion of privacy in the name of crisis management and normalization of such measures beyond the emergency period.18 Moreover, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms may exaggerate human biases, especially against disadvantaged populations. Thus, automated solutions like computer vision that rely on training data can exacerbate socio-economic inequality.19 In attempting to maintain the country’s strength against adversaries like China and Russia, the US government should not end up adopting their doctrines by sacrificing the country’s fundamental values of individual freedom and independence. “National security matters only if you know what you’re securing,” says Melissa Flagg, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and current senior fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology.20 Public officials often turn quickly to technology for solutions, but technology should neither be an objective unto itself simply to illustrate capability nor a tool that achieves results at the expense of people’s comfort-level in the security measures taken. COVID-19 has introduced an epidemic of fear and distrust of government that is crippling the nation’s ability to maintain national security. Many Americans are struggling to accept government interventions. Protests have erupted against mask-wearing, social distancing, and quarantine measures, and some protestors have used terms like “muzzle” and “slavery” to express their apprehension towards centralized control.21 In the coming months, vaccination efforts are also expected to face fierce resistance.22 At a time when individual contributions in society-wide efforts are integral and decisive in combating a public health crisis, hostility and lack of trust in government is detrimental. Trust makes people amenable to necessary interventions; national security cannot be actualized without this precursor. As such, it is imperative that the government’s use of technology deliberately avoid infringement upon individual rights. Better communication of the rationale behind each use of technology and improved data-sharing can increase transparency, which is strongly correlated with trust in the government.23 This would also prevent unnecessary, scientifically unjustified

15 Lisa Simunaci, “Technology, Expertise Help Determine Vaccine Distribution,” US Department of Defense, November 12, 2020, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2410195/technology-expertise-help-determine-vaccine-distribution/. 16 David Vergun, “AI Aids DOD in Early Detection of COVID-19,” US Department of Defense, September 22, 2020, https://www. defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2356086/ai-aids-dod-in-early-detection-of-covid-19/. 17 “Technology Is Not a Panacea Against COVID-19,” New York Civil Liberties Union, June 3, 2020, https://www.nyclu.org/en/ news/technology-not-panacea-against-covid-19. 18 Budd et al., “Digital Technologies in the Public-Health Response to COVID-19.” “States’ Use of Digital Surveillance Technologies to Fight Pandemic Must Respect Human Rights.” 19 Moss and Metcalf, “High Tech, High Risk.” 20 Melissa Flagg, National Security and COVID-19, Zoom, December 1, 2020. 21 “‘Mask’ vs ‘Muzzle’: Democrats and Republicans Don’t Speak the Same Language,” Inquirer, October 24, 2020, https://technology.inquirer.net/105018/mask-vs-muzzle-democrats-and-republicans-dont-speak-the-same-language. Rachel Sandler, “Facebook Removes Some Anti-Quarantine Protest Events For Flouting Social Distancing Orders,” Forbes, April 20, 2020, https://www.forbes. com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/04/20/facebook-removes-some-anti-quarantine-protest-events-for-flouting-social-distancing- orders/?sh=79712e615acf. Tovia Smith, “The Battle Between The Masked And The Masked-Nots Unveils Political Rifts,”NPR , May 29, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/05/29/864515630/the-battle-between-the-masked-and-the-masked-nots-unveils-political-rifts. 22 Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, “Antivaccination Activists Are Growing Force at Virus Protests,” The New York Times, May 3, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/us/anti-vaxxers-coronavirus-protests.html. 23 Lee Rainie, Scott Keeter, and Andrew Perrin, “Trust and Distrust in America” Pew Research Center, July 22, 2019, https://www. pewresearch.org/politics/2019/07/22/americans-solutions-for-trust-related-problems/.

37 Audrey Pederson and Eri Phinisee

uses of technology from falsely operating as public health measures and would increase people’s confidence in the technological applications that do get implemented. Consent should be mandated for any technology that utilizes sensitive personal information, people should have the ability to opt-out at any point and collected information should be limited and anonymized where possible. For example, the Tiberius platform that DOD uses for vaccine distribution does not rely on any personally identifiable or personal health information.24 Finally, any AI technology should undergo strict ethical reviews to mitigate socioeconomic biases. The National Defense Authorization Act for the Fiscal Year 2021 indicates promising support in this area; it directs the National Institute of Standards and Technology to develop an AI risk mitigation framework and best practices for datasets used in AI training, instructs the creation of the National Artificial Intelligence Advisory Committee that will address societal and ethical issues related to AI, and orders that DoD assesses AI technologies it acquires to ensure they are “ethically and responsibly developed.”25 In fact, technological innovation should, from the get-go, focus on increasing trust and incentivizing citizens to willingly participate in community-oriented efforts. A great example is the NOVID app, which encourages participation in a tracing program by enabling proactive, rather than reactive, exposure prevention; this is a design that understands and capitalizes on people’s natural incentives for self-preservation.26 The government can utilize information- sharing applications that run on decentralized platforms to give people an increased sense of control and encourage responsible behavior through social affirmation.27 Innovations like homomorphic encryption also increase privacy and can be integrated into technological applications that necessarily deal with personal data.28 Civil liberties and national security are not mutually exclusive; if anything, respecting civil liberties boosts the latter. A purposeful use of technology that can protect as well as bolster trust in necessary government interventions is essential for combatting a national security crisis.

Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic has made it painfully clear that the conventional conception of national security—one centered around defense against foreign attacks—is not enough to truly combat all threats that undermine the United States as a country and as a global hegemon. As the US government rushed to manage the public health crisis, however, critical fragilities in defense industries as well as social infrastructures emerged. Disruption of critical supply chains and decreased trust in governmental security efforts made combatting the public health threat exceptionally more difficult. The government quickly learned that in this modern age, military solutions are not the only key to national security; smart economic choices can solidify physical defense capabilities and ethical and purposeful use of technology can strengthen the trust that underlies a stable and cooperative society. Policymakers must reorient their approach to national security and restructure priorities so that they can successfully leverage all the available resources the country has to counter future pandemics and other unexpected threats.

24 Lisa Simunaci, “Technology, Expertise Help Determine Vaccine Distribution.” 25 Duane Pozza and Kathleen Scott, “Federal AI Efforts Will Be Greatly Boosted by 2021 NDAA,” JD Supra, January 8, 2021, https:// www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/federal-ai-efforts-will-be-greatly-4939289/. 26 An-Li Herring, “People Distrust Contact-Tracing Apps: Can A New Approach Help?” accessed December 10, 2020, https://www. wesa.fm/post/people-distrust-contact-tracing-apps-can-new-approach-help. 27 M. Todd Henderson, “How Technology Will Revolutionize Public Trust,” Wall Street Journal, October 17, 2019, https://www.wsj. com/articles/how-technology-will-revolutionize-public-trust-11571328635. 28 T. Altuwaiyan, M. Hadian, and X. Liang, “EPIC: Efficient Privacy-Preserving Contact Tracing for Infection Detection,” in2018 IEEE International Conference on Communications (ICC), 2018, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICC.2018.8422886.

38 The Impacts of COVID-19 on State and Non-State Actors in the Middle East JAMES C. SUMMERS II AND CHANDLER STACY

he novel coronavirus (COVID-19) took the world by storm in 2020, and the Middle East is no exception. How exactly has COVID-19 impacted states and non-state actors in the TMiddle East, one of the world’s most conflict-prone region of the world that is the center of so much conflict already? Across the Middle East, in 2019, 14,723 of people died in organized violence and armed conflict as reported by the Uppsala University Conflict Data program.1 By contrast, as of this writing, according to Johns Hopkins University, over 122,000 people in the Middle East have lost their lives to the coronavirus since early 2020.2 In this article, we examine how COVID-19 has affected states and rebel groups in four Middle Eastern countries: Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. In the case of non-state actors, we investigate whether or not there has been a decrease in violent conflict as groups take advantage of the pandemic by providing assistance to communities and further delegitimizing the governments they oppose.

COVID and Non-State Actors in the Middle East The Middle East has been the site of a myriad of insurgencies and operational base of many armed non-state actors both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thanks to the coronavirus, roughly one billion students worldwide are now learning from home or have had school postponed.3 People are spending significantly longer periods online on social media platforms and playing video games. This may give Middle East terror groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) the opportunity to extend their online recruitment to an even greater number of potential recruits. In what follows, we look at four important regional countries with respect to how non-state actors have been operating since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

1 “UCDP – Uppsala Conflict Data Program.” UCDP, accessed January 15, 2021, https://ucdp.uu.se/exploratory. 2 Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. “See the Latest Data in Your Region,” accessed January 15, 2021, https://coronavirus. jhu.edu/region. 3 United Nations Security Council. “The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism and Countering Violent Extremism.” Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate, June 2020.

Chandler Stacy is a senior at Carnegie Mellon University who participated in the Washington Semester Program last fall. Upon graduation this spring, he plans to work for a few years before pursuing further education in law and international relations. Born and raised in southern West Virginia, he plans to return there after his education to get involved in local and state politics. Some of his more specific interests are in the fields of foreign policy, international organizations, and constitutional law.

James C. Summers II is a senior at Carnegie Mellon University pursuing an accelerated master’s degree in International Relations and Politics. James interned with PNC Bank as an analyst last summer and was a research intern with LobbyIt in the fall 2020 semester. James is working as a research assistant in the CIRP lab this semester. Upon graduating from CMU, James hopes to pursue a career in US foreign policy or the intelligence community focusing on counterterrorism or Middle East.

39 James C. Summers II and Chandler Stacy

Iraq Iraq is continuing to fight a resurgence of ISIS, which in November 2020, General Kenneth McKenzie stated remains a long-term threat in both Iraq and Syria.4 There has been a sharp increase in the number of attacks by ISIS, which since the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in late 2019 has been led by the little-known Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi. ISIS attacks in 2020 have mainly been in northern villages. ISIS is apparently looking to take advantage of the numerous crises that are keeping the government in Baghdad from focusing on them.5 The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) provides up-to-date data on occurrences of violence throughout the world. Between March 15 and November 30, 2020, there has been roughly a four percent increase in violence in Iraq as compared to 2019.6 While the data does not specify specific groups, we presume that ISIS is the main cause of this increase. The Islamic State also has the opportunity to use COVID-19 to appeal to communities as a viable alternative to the government of Iraq. In areas that are not government-controlled, ISIS can enter the space and appeal as the savior to these communities by assisting them against the pandemic. Hezbollah has done this in various places throughout Lebanon where they sent around 5,000 doctors and nurses to help fight the pandemic.7 Meanwhile, the Iraqi government has employed pro-government militias such as the Peshmerga to fight back against ISIS.8 As the government focuses on fighting the pandemic, we worry that the hardships that COVID will have on the Iraqi government may contribute to the resurgence of ISIS.

Syria COVID-19 has also exacerbated rather than calmed the protracted civil war in Syria as insurgent groups during the pandemic have escalated violence against citizens and the state.9 April 2020 alone witnessed an increase in attacks of 69 percent in both Syria and Iraq.10 Much more quickly than anticipated, ISIS is reviving in the country as the Assad regime struggles to cope with the pandemic and the United States’ continues draw down in its troop presence in the country. Given the landscape where ISIS fighters in Syria are typically found, they are much less likely to be exposed to the coronavirus and are able to take more offensive actions as Syrian forces are unprepared and uncoordinated.11 The Islamic State is focusing its attacks on both Assad’s military forces, as well as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is made up in large part by Kurdish soldiers. As of August 2020, the Islamic State has already carried out 126 attacks throughout the country whereas in the whole of 2019, they had conducted 144. According to ACLED data, from September to November 30, 2020, there have been 626 different rebel-conducted events, a mix of explosions/remote violence and battles.12 Again,

4 Robert Burns, “Top US General in the Mideast Says ISIS in Iraq and Syria Still Long-Term Threat,”Military Times, November 19, 2020. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/11/19/top-us-general-in-the-mideast-says-isis-in-iraq-and-syria- still-long-term-threat/. 5 Ranj Alaaldin. “COVID-19 Will Prolong Conflict in the Middle East.”Brookings (blog), April 24, 2020. https://www.brookings. edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/04/24/covid-19-will-prolong-conflict-in-the-middle-east/. 6Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) website, accessed December 10, 2020, https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard/ 7 Tom Perry and Laila Bassam, “Hezbollah Deploys Medics, Hospitals against Coronavirus in Lebanon,” Reuters, March 25, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-hezbollah-idUSKBN21C3R7. 8 Ore Koren, “Covid-19, State Capacity, and Political Violence by Nonstate Actors: Report for the Stimson Center.” Stimson Center, August 25, 2020, https://www.orekoren.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/StimsonReport_8_17_20.pdf. 9 Mohammed Ibrahim Shire. “More Attacks or More Services? Insurgent Groups’ Behaviour during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia,” Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression (2020): 1-24. 10 “Charles Lister, “ISIS’s Dramatic Escalation in Syria and Iraq,” Middle East Institute, May 4, 2020, https://www.mei.edu/blog/isiss- dramatic-escalation-syria-and-iraq. 11 Elizabeth Dent, “US Policy and the Resurgence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria,” Middle East Institute, October 21, 2020, https://www. mei.edu/publications/us-policy-and-resurgence-isis-iraq-and-syria. 12 ACLED website, accessed December 10, 2020, https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard/.

40 The Impacts of COVID-19 on State and Non-State Actors in the Middle East

ACLED does not specify which groups are responsible for each action. But given that ISIS had perpetrated 126 attacks as of the end of August, a good portion of these further 626 can safely be attributed to them. With the continued uncertainty surrounding the pandemic mixed with the scale-down of US forces in Syria, ISIS will likely continue to grow stronger and may eventually even be able to re-impose themselves in force in both Syria and Iraq.

Iran Relatively few non-state actors operate within Iran. However, Iran has sponsored many non-state actors outside its borders, including groups such as Ansar al Islam (AI) and Kata’ib Hizballah (KH) who operate in Iraq and Syria, along with other groups like Lebanese Hezbollah whom Iran gave around $700 million in 2019.13 A strategic goal of Iran’s sponsorship of “proxies” in foreign countries is to promote Iranian interests and enhance their reputation and credibility as an ally in these countries while maintaining plausible deniability and minimizing blowback. In Iraq, AI fights against the Kurdish government region of Iraq in hopes of enhancing the possibility of Sunni rule in that part of the country. KH aims to increase the influence of Iranian policies in Iraq.14 With increased hardships that COVID-19 has brought to the region, proxy groups help Iran establish a foothold in areas that are in need of assistance.

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia, along with Iran, is another Middle Eastern country that embroils itself in conflicts through the use of proxies. Domestically, few non-state groups cause violence (and there is little reporting on how COVID-19 may be affecting them). Abroad, however, we know that Saudi Arabia uses proxies in an effort to counteract the influence and power of Iran in the region, particularly in countries such as Syria and Yemen.15 Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen have been responsible for over twenty thousand airstrikes that continue to contribute to the greatest humanitarian crisis in the world. Saudi Arabia has been working with a coalition to reimpose ousted Yemenis President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi.16 Since 2015, this has been the goal of the Saudi government and it has not gone well as Hadi is no closer to being president again. Only time will tell how COVID-19 throughout the region may affect these proxy conflicts.

COVID and States in the Middle East The COVID-19 pandemic has also shifted the policy landscape for state actors in the Middle East. In particular, we examined the role that coronavirus has had on the healthcare system and economy of Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, which have had varied responses and handling of the pandemic in part shaped by their experience with earlier outbreaks. As we review the measures that each country took and the timeliness of their actions, we hope to better understand the issues that the region still faces in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

Iraq Iraq has a unique set of problems that make it vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Their health care system has been ravaged for over thirty years by war and US sanctions. Iraq’s fight against insurgent groups also forces the government to put a high priority on security

13 Ashley Lane, “Iran’s Islamist Proxies in the Middle East.” Wilson Center, December 17, 2020, accessed January 15, 2021. https:// www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-islamist-proxies. 14 Christopher Dallas-Feeney. “Violent Non-State Actors in the Middle East: origins and Goals.” E-International Relations (blog), May 28, 2019, https://www.e-ir.info/2019/05/28/violent-non-violent-state-actors-in-the-middle-east-origins-and-goals/. 15 Mohammed Alyahyam “Saudi Arabia – Middle East Battle Lines,” European Council on Foreign Relations, accessed January 16, 2021. https://ecfr.eu/special/battle_lines/saudi_arabia. 16 Peter Krause and Tyler Parker. “Yemen’s Proxy Wars Explained,” MIT Center for International Studies, March 26, 2020. https://cis. mit.edu/publications/analysis-opinion/2020/yemens-proxy-wars-explained.

41 James C. Summers II and Chandler Stacy

and defense. Corruption and opposition to reform has also kept the government from making healthcare a priority. As a result, Iraq has a shortage of drugs and medical staff. Doctors are fleeing, and life expectancy and child mortality rates are below average in the region.17 This created a nightmare for the overall healthcare system even before the pandemic exploded. The COVID-19 situation in Iraq is particularly dire. Doctors are receiving large numbers of severe and critical patients at an increasing rate. At the same time, some doctors say that people in Baghdad do not appreciate the gravity of the situation and it has created a stigma that is causing people to avoid treatment when they experience symptoms.18 As the country aims to prevent further spread and work to build its health infrastructure to a manageable level, they are in desperate need of aid and resources. Although Iraq has only seen 573,000 cases and twelve thousand deaths, the poorly funded and poorly managed healthcare system poses a significant risk to Iraq.

Syria When looking at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Syria, there are many things to consider including the ongoing civil war and the humanitarian crisis in the country. Even in the early stages of the pandemic, there has been distrust among many Syrian citizens that the government was concealing the true statistics and severity of the pandemic. As of December 9, 2020, the Syrian Ministry of Health reported a little over 8,500 overall infections, while the Security Council relied on reports that counted at least 30,000 cases.19

Iran Iran’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the beginning was marked by denial and a failure to act. In late January 2020, the Iranian Health Minister Saeed Namaki requested a ban on travel to China and a quarantine for any Iranians returning from Wuhan, China. However, flights were continued to China for at least another six weeks. To Iran’s credit, they have weathered prior epidemics of bird flu and other coronaviruses in the past without any significant casualties. Due to the US assassination of the Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and their downing of a civilian aircraft in late 2019, the Iranian regime sought not to spoil its relationship with China in their reluctance to issue a travel ban. The delay was costly. As the pandemic worsened in February and March 2020, Iran issued stricter measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. They even furloughed thousands of prisoners, closed movie theaters and universities, and suspended in-person convening of parliament in an effort to mitigate spread.20 Some draconian measures generated controversy, with protestors insisting on reopening religious sites. At the same time, the government resisted issuing stricter lockdowns in an effort to keep the economy stimulated throughout 2020. A partial reopening in the spring of 2020 only led to a rise in cases and a worsening of the pandemic. With Iran’s economy being crippled by sanctions in previous years, the government was forced to balance keeping the economy stable and addressing a national health crisis.

Saudi Arabia From the time the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia saw their first COVID-19 case on March 2

17 Ahmed Aboulenein and Reade Levinson, “Iraq’s Healthcare System Is in Crisis. Patients Are Suffering,”Reuters , March 2, 2020, www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/iraq-health/. 18 “Iraq: COVID-19 Outbreak in Baghdad Is ‘Very Alarming.’” Doctors Without Borders - USA, September 25, 2020, www.doctor- swithoutborders.org/what-we-do/news-stories/story/iraq-covid-19-outbreak-baghdad-very-alarming. 19 Lauren Wolfe, “Coronavirus Cases in Syria Go Uncounted amid Shortages of Critical Supplies and Medical Personnel,” The New York Times, December 19, 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/covid-syria-surge-warning.html. 20 Suzanne Maloney, “Reopening the World: Reopening Iran,” Brookings, July 2, 2020, www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/06/16/reopening-the-world-reopening-iran/.

42 The Impacts of COVID-19 on State and Non-State Actors in the Middle East until June 7, 2020, there were a total of 101,914 cases, or an average of 1,039 new cases per day. The number of reported daily active cases started to stabilize two months into the pandemic and the overall recovery rate was 71.4 percent. In a country with about thirty-five million people, Saudi Arabia has around 350,000 positive cases of COVID-19 as of this writing. Part of the reason for the Kingdom’s success was their enforcement of early, strict containment policies to control the spread of COVID-19.21 With high levels of urbanization, many social and religious norms, and its annual hosting of high visibility religious events, this was challenging. Border measures, lockdowns, and curfews were put in place in an effort to quell the virus a week after the first case. Even before the first confirmed case in the kingdom, the government suspended all religious visas from countries with positive tests COVID-19 and closed religious events. These actions bought Saudi Arabia time to put the proper health policies in place to slow overall spread and increase the recovery rate for those who tested positive. Saudi Arabia’s economy suffered a significant blow when oil prices dropped, creating a budget deficit of nine billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2020 alone.22 Saudi Arabia responded to the potential loss of oil revenue with a decrease in spending and an increase in the value-added tax, from 5 percent to 15 percent. These measures helped sustain the economy through the second and third quarters of 2020. Saudi Arabia has been committed to decentralizing their economy and moving into other markets that allow for economic diversity. Saudi Arabia is a popular travel spot within the middle east region, specifically for religious purposes. The Saudis face the challenge of diversifying their economy in the midst of a global pandemic that forces decreases in tourism and dropped oil revenues for many companies. With the recent news of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, the Saudis are hopeful that they get the situation under control by this summer, in time for the 2021 Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca.

Conclusion The data we have available from these countries suggests that lockdowns and stricter measures go a long way in preventing spread and counteracting the effect of the pandemic. Saudi Arabia’s lockdown measures bought time for their healthcare institutions to prepare for what was coming, leading to less overhaul. However, Saudi health infrastructure is more modern and equipped to deal with this scenario than Iran and Iraq. Economic sanctions and foreign policy have played a role in crippling the economics of these countries, forcing them to ease some of the policies that would best help in preventing spread to stimulate the economy and allow citizens to keep food on their table. The balance between economic stimulus and preventing spread is one that all countries have had to deal with, but in countries that have external factors crippling their economy, it makes the trade-off inherently more difficult. At the same time, insurgent groups and non-state actors in the Middle East countries we surveyed have stepped up their attacks throughout the pandemic. State actors in the region work to combat these threats while maintaining their health institutions, economy, and international status. As COVID-19 continues to worsen, countries within the region will continue to struggle with managing the crisis and some of them will likely need aid in these efforts. Maintaining peace and stability in the region is a focal point for many who analyze the dynamics of international relations and their efforts to fight the pandemic are directly related to regional stability. In the future, we must keep an eye on the region and work to broker deals with these countries that aid them in their efforts to combat the spread of the virus.

21 Saber Yezil and Anas Khan, “COVID-19 Social Distancing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Bold Measures in the Face of Political, Economic, Social and Religious Challenges.” Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease 37 (2020): 101692, doi:10.1016/j. tmaid.2020.101692. 22 “The Outlook of Saudi Arabia’s Economy Post COVID-19.”Saudi Market Research, November 9, 2020, www.marketresearchsaudi. com/insight/The-Outlook-of-Saudi-Arabia%E2%80%99s-Economy-Post-COVID-19.

43 Interview with Baruch Fischhoff Bill Brink, an associate editor of the journal, interviewed Baruch Fischhoff on October 6, 2020. Dr. Fischhoff is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Institute for Politics and Strategy and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. Fischhoff is an expert in decision science and risk communication, and is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine. He is the author of many books, including “Acceptable Risk,” “Risk: A Very Short Introduction,” “Judgment and Decision Making,” and “Communicating Risks and Benefits.” He served on the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee on Equitable Allocation of Vaccine for the Novel Coronavirus, which published its findings shortly before this interview.1 The interview has been lightly edited for concision and flow.

Bill Brink: With something this gargantuan of a task [working on the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report on “A Framework for Equitable Allocation of Vac- cine for the Novel Coronavirus”] that involves so many different tentacles, where do you start?

Baruch Fischhoff: That’s a really interesting question. I think the report evolved to such a degree that it would be really hard to retrace our steps. I’ve been on three dozen of these panels and spoken to many more, and this one was especially well-done. Our two leaders were Bill Foege, the former head of CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and one of the people who organized the eradication of smallpox, and Helene Gayle, who’s a pediatrician who runs a large Chicago-area philanthropy program. Let me step back. The project came to the National Academies from the head of NIH [the National Institutes of Health] and the head of CDC, who asked for an independent report on this question, because they, as they have said publicly, were afraid that the federal government would not be trusted. They wanted to have an independent voice. They wrote a statement of task, which is the marching orders for an academy committee, which asked us to look at a number of things. The staff and the chairs pulled together people with expertise in each of those different areas. Our report had a logical order, beginning with what’s the problem, what’s been the experience with vaccines, and what other proposals are out there. We then came up with a set of guiding ethical principles that would guide the whole thing. And then those abstract ethical principles were translated into operational principles which we called risk-based criteria. And that led to the priorities. And then we asked, well, if you’ve got the priorities, how do you actually execute them? You could say, well this group is very needy, but it’s too hard to get to them, so it just won’t happen. So we had a chapter on that. The next chapter was on risk communication and community engagement, which addressed the need to let people understand what the program is doing so that they could make a fair judgment of whether it really was equitably allocating the vaccine and whether individuals would really want to take it, with no attempt to persuade them. Just get the facts, get them out, let people make a fair judgment. It was followed by a chapter on health promotion, that is, how to get people to follow medical advice regarding what decisions they should make. Much of it focused on how to overcome many people’s hesitancy about taking this vaccine. Finally, there was a chapter on what is the place of the United States in the world. It addressed issues like the ethics of sharing, how diseases change and spread, and the complexity of international supply

1 For additional information on the report, see National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, A Framework for Equi- table Allocation of Vaccine for the Novel Coronavirus (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2020). https://www.nationalacad- emies.org/our-work/a-framework-for-equitable-allocation-of-vaccine-for-the-novel-coronavirus. For the full text of the report, see https://www.nap.edu/read/25917/.

44 CIRP Journal chains. Two pieces that I was most responsible for was figuring out the risk-based criteria that we used to set priorities. They were pretty simple. What’s the probability that members of a group will get the disease, what’s the probability that they will have severe health effects if they do get the disease, what is the risk to society if they are no longer able to function, and what’s the risk that they will give the disease to other people? That was the decision science, EPP, risk analysis part of it. And I led the chapter on risk communication and community engagement, which is, again, something that we do.

Bill Brink: With the risk analysis portion, deciding on the various threats to various groups of people, was that a difficult tightrope to walk?

Baruch Fischhoff: The ethical principles say that we are not looking at who people are. Black, white, wealthy, poor, whatever. We’re only looking at the risks. That was important. We know that there are wide differences in people’s chance of getting the disease, chance of getting severely sick, risking society if they’re no longer functioning, or passing the disease along. Those differences are associated in complicated ways with race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and so on. But those were correlations between risk and who people “We recommended are. We recommended looking just at the risks. looking just at the risks. That analysis led to giving the highest priority to healthcare workers and first responders, That analysis led to giving all of whom have three of these risks. They’re likely the highest priority to to get the disease because they’re interacting with healthcare workers and people all the time, they pose a big risk to society if they’re not available to us, and they’re likely to give first responders.” the disease to other people because they’re out and about. They vary in terms of what their risk is of getting severely ill; some them are relatively healthy and some of them aren’t. Once you look at those groups, and if you consider everybody in those groups, that is, everybody from the cleaners and reception people at the hospitals up to the attendings and heads of department, there are a lot more people at the poorly paid levels than there are at the high-paid levels, and the people at the poorly paid levels turn out to be disproportionately minorities, given our society. As this would play out, assuming we get the vaccine to the people who need it, who deserve it, and are willing to take it, the people who often get poor healthcare might get particularly good healthcare in this situation.

Bill Brink: For the other chapter, with regard to the dissemination of the risks and the information regarding the vaccine, were you able to draw on either the H1N1 and Ebola responses the committee considered or any of the other dozen or so committees that you’ve been on to begin a framework for that? What challenges did that pose?

Baruch Fischhoff: There’s a large research literature on risk communication. Carnegie Mellon has been a leader in creating that. Much of its application has been by various committees at the National Academy of Sciences. One thing the Academy likes is to cite its own reports. Among the many committees I’ve been on over the years, one of the most relevant ones here was on a committee on environmental justice, about twenty years ago. Its report has three recommendations. One is improve the science. The other two have to do with risk

45 Interview with Baruch Fischhoff

communication, to engage the community and make sure that they understand what’s going on, that they feel treated as a partner, that you work with the organizations that they trust, that you provide the information that they need. We tried to capture this in the vaccine report, creating a respectful two-way relationship between the vaccine program and all of the communities that depend on it, which is everybody. We need to collect information that people need in a transparent, trustworthy way, and we need to get it to them in a comprehensible, trusted way. These basic principles draw from many Academy reports. There was one thirty years ago called “Improving Risk Communication” that I was on. There was the one on environmental justice. Four years ago, I helped to organize a workshop on this exact topic. It was called “Capacity Building for Communicating Risks Regarding Pandemic Disease. We knew what to do. It just didn’t happen. We repeated that message here.

Bill Brink: One thing that I found that was interesting in this report is that it advocated positions that make a lot of sense when you read the reasoning behind it, but I could also see why some people disagree – vaccinating inmates, for example, or making the vaccine free out-of-pocket. Was there a challenge at all between doing what was scientifically right and what might be unpopular?

Baruch Fischhoff: There’s a lot of discussion “The argument [for making it of those issues. We argued that the risk-based free] was, it’s not an equitable criteria were the best approach. We are not allocation system if you say looking at anything about people’s status: their age, their gender, their legal status. We’re treating that people are important and everybody as a person. That was a clear ethical you don’t deliver.... We say that statement, which is made explicit and, from what one could consider this a right, I understand, follows principles widely accepted among bioethicists. considering that American From that, it fell out that people who are people paid for the vaccine.” incarcerated or in long-term care facilities, they have high risk, so they get high priority. They also have some reasonable probability of giving it to the people that work for them, whether it’s prison workers or long-term care facility workers. We acknowledged that in some cases the law may override our recommendations. For example, there are treaties between the US government and various tribal nations that give them specific status. The ultimate allocation decisions will be made by state, tribal, local, and territorial authorities. We believed that they would find our recommendations useful, leading to consistent policies, adapted to their special circumstances. The argument [for making it free] was, it’s not an equitable allocation system if you say that people are important and you don’t deliver. Chapter five lays out the requirements for actually delivering these priorities. One of these is making it free for anybody who gets it, so that eliminates the barrier to payment. We say that one could consider this a right, considering that American people paid for the vaccine. We also noted that there are organizations that make the system work, so there’s discussion of how do we compensate the organizations who have legitimate expenses? We also say that there are people who are hard to reach and it may cost more to deliver to them than to people who are easy to reach, but that’s also an obligation of the system to fulfill its promise and priorities.

46 CIRP Journal

Bill Brink: What has been the reaction that you and the committee have received?

Baruch Fischhoff: I think it’s been really positive. I haven’t seen anything negative.

Bill Brink: What was it like to be asked to do this and to serve in this capacity?

Baruch Fischhoff: I was pleased and honored they asked me to serve. Most people in the country would do anything they can. I was happy to be asked to do this. This was an unusual committee, with eighteen people, all of whom contributed essential pieces. Members responded quickly, over weekends and overnight. It would have been a weaker report, it would have been vulnerable, had not everybody contributed their bit. The members were diverse in their personal background and in their professional background. Both of those became important. It was a very rewarding experience, and I hope it helps get the vaccine out. I think it offers ethical principles and promises that, if acted on, I think could have a healing effect for this country in this rotten time that we’re in.

“I hope that there will Bill Brink: What happened next with this report? be a program of risk Baruch Fischhoff: It went to the sponsors, the communication that gets the heads of CDC and NIH, and then to CDC’s data that people need in order Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which proposes the policy to the head to judge the program and the of the DHS [Department of Health and Human safety and effectiveness of the Services] and eventually to the White House. vaccine, and is delivered in a From what I’ve heard, our recommendations largely framed CDC’s recommendations. The clear, authoritative way. The report was also disseminated widely, to the many vaccine program owes that to players in this complex process. The federal the American public.” government provides the vaccine, but there are myriad organizations, state, tribal, local, territorial, nonprofit – there’s this enormous network that distributes healthcare, that takes care of people in all the different situations that they are, and it’s available to all of them. We hope that it is helping guide them in making their own decisions. I hope that there will be a program of risk communication that gets the data that people need in order to judge the program and the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine, and is delivered in a clear, authoritative way. The vaccine program owes that to the American public, and I think it will help to build trust in the vaccine program, and so the people for whom this is a good deal will feel comfortable taking it.

47 Interview with Wändi Bruine de Bruin Bill Brink, an associate editor of the journal, interviewed Wändi Bruine de Bruin on January 22, 2021. Dr. Bruine de Bruin is Provost Professor of Public Policy, Psychology, and Behavioral Science at the University of Southern California’s Sol Price School of Public Policy. She has published more than 125 peer-reviewed publications on the psychology of risk perception and communication, as applied to personal health, sustainability and climate change, as well as household finances. She is a member of the editorial boards of the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Decision, Medical Decision Making, the Journal of Risk Research, and Psychology and Aging. She currently serves on the National Academy of Sciences committee on mask use and respiratory health. She has served on expert panels for the National Academy of Sciences on Communicating Science Effectively and for the Council of the Canadian Academies on Health Product Risk Communication. With colleagues in the Center for Economic and Social Research, she runs a national longitudinal survey to track symptoms, risk perceptions, protective behaviors, food insecurity, and political polarization during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. She also studies how people’s expectations of others’ behaviors can improve predictions of election outcomes and vaccination behavior. The interview has been lightly edited for concision and flow.

Bill Brink: Did the increase in cases during the initial portion of the survey help, because it was on people’s minds, or hurt the survey because it impacted the data?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: Things were changing so quickly that our baseline survey on the Under- standing Coronavirus in America Study1 was already capturing more than just the situation at the start of the pandemic. There were between six and seven thousand people who participated in the baseline survey that we ran in March. That survey was open from mid-March through the end of March, and we find significant differences in reported risk perceptions and protective behaviors between people who answered the survey in the beginning versus the end of that period. People who answered later perceived greater risks of COVID-19 and implemented more protective behaviors such as handwashing and social distancing.2 And of course, there may be systematic differences between early and late responders just because busy people may answer later, people less interested in a topic may answer later. But even after we control for all kind of demographic differences between the early and the late responders, there are big differences in their risk perceptions and their protective behaviors. We think that is, in part, due to the pandemic changing, the information about it changing so quickly. That was an issue. That led us to do follow-up surveys every two weeks, so that if there were other big changes happening, we would track that better. Even within two weeks, a lot of things can happen.

Bill Brink: It seems there is a difference between the perception of risk and what people feel comfortable doing as far as the activities they say in the surveys that they do or don’t do. What do you make of that?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: People’s risk perception is not the only thing that is related to people’s behavior. Whether you are able to engage in social distancing, for example, may partly be affected by how much risk you perceive, so if you perceive more risk, you’re more willing to engage in

1 Available online at https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/. 2 Wändi Bruine de Bruin and Daniel Bennett, “Relationships between initial COVID-19 risk perceptions and protective health behaviors: A national survey,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 59, no. 2 (2020): 157-167, https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/ S0749-3797(20)30213-0/abstract.

48 CIRP Journal social distancing. But there are other factors that affect whether you social distance as well. For example, if you have a job that you still have to go to, then it may be harder to implement social distancing even if you’re worried about getting the disease. Risk perception is not the only thing that affects behavior. It does seem to inform people’s behavior, and people who are more worried are more likely to implement protective behaviors, and we found that even early on in the pandemic. As the pandemic progressed, the relationship between risk perception and implementing protective behavior did get stronger, suggesting that in the beginning people may have been worried but been uncertain about whether their risk perceptions were real, or whether their behaviors would really work, but then as information got out that this was really serious and these behaviors were really recommended, the relationship between risk perception and behavior got stronger.

Bill Brink: What do you and your colleagues make of the decline in people who responded that they would get a coronavirus vaccine if it were available?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: When we first started asking “When we first started about people’s willingness to get the vaccine in April, it was 82 percent and now in January 2021 it is down asking about people’s to 64 percent. That’s worrisome. I think that maybe willingness to get the the previous administration didn’t help to promote vaccine in April, it was protective behaviors and vaccination. Research on risk communication recommends that you have consistent 82 percent and now messaging about what people need to be doing and what in January 2021 it is your health recommendations are. I’ve been teaching down to 64 percent. risk perception and communication for many years, and one of the basic things that we teach in those classes is, That’s worrisome. ” if you have a message, you have to make sure that you consistently deliver it, and that multiple agencies deliver the same message. Whenever I taught it, I felt like, this is so obvious. Apparently, if you look around, it’s not actually that obvious. The Trump administration did not help with that, with the president sometimes changing his message within one press conference. I have work that is currently still under review that also suggests that comparing COVID-19 to seasonal flu may have really undermined people’s perceptions of how bad it was going to be, and their willingness to implement protective behaviors, and possibly also their willingness to get vaccinated.

Bill Brink: What were your main takeaways as this progressed? What surprised you, or confirmed a hypothesis?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: In 2006, I participated in two expert panels on the topic of pandemic flu. That was the first time for me that I learned about what epidemiologists were fearing about pandemics. H5N1 was threatening to become a pandemic at the time. There was some evidence that it might have jumped from birds to a human but had not become transmissible from human to human, but the fear was, if it would become transmissible from human to human, there would be a pandemic. I was on these panels as an expert on risk perception and communication. I learned a lot about epidemiologists’ predictions for future pandemics.3 As the pandemic was

3 Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Baruch Fischhoff, Larry Brilliant, and Denise Caruso, “Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks,” Global Public Health 1, no. 2 (2006): 179-194, https://www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/Fischhoff-Expert- Judgments-of-Pandemic-Influenza-Risks.pdf.

49 Interview with Wändi Bruine de Bruin

unfolding, I was just so surprised – I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised – I was shocked that many of the predictions that the epidemiologists made in 2006 were unfolding. I felt that, I’m a psychologist without expertise in epidemiology. If I can see that this is happening, why don’t the governments see that this is happening? There were a lot of people saying, “Oh, we couldn’t have known.” But you could have known. It’s shocking that there was a pandemic response team and it had been dismantled. I wonder what would have happened if we had had a pandemic response team in place. That said, though, other countries that did have pandemic response teams have also been struggling with this pandemic, so it’s apparently not that easy to respond well when something like this happens.

Bill Brink: Did you notice any changes in responses that correlated with announcements about mask mandates, vaccine news, or actions taken by national and local government?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: I’ve seen analyses that suggest that states that have mandates or strong recommendations to implement a particular behavior saw less spread of COVID-19, presumably due to promoting more protective behavior.4 Of course, those were also the states where, especially in the beginning, the pandemic was worse, so people also had more to fear and more reason to protect themselves other than the states telling them. If masks are not mandated and there are mixed messages about whether or not to wear a mask, then not everybody ends up wearing “I was shocked that many a mask, because you’re basically implying, it’s not that important to wear a mask. You may feel like of the predictions that the you’re giving people their own choice and their own epidemiologists made in responsibility, but it’s also implicitly saying, we don’t 2006 were unfolding.” think it’s important enough to mandate this.

Bill Brink: Can you tell me about how you developed the questions regarding employment, food insecurity, mental health, etc., and what you learned from the responses to them?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: The survey was designed with an interdisciplinary team of researchers and questions were partly developed to help policy makers. The food insecurity questions, for example, were of special interest to policy makers in LA County. Our sample is nationally representative, but we also have an LA County sample that receives the same survey. Food insecurity has been a special concern in LA County, where LA is a place that has food deserts. There was already a concern before the pandemic that some areas don’t have supermarkets or easy access to fresh fruits and vegetables, where people get their food from local bodegas. A lot of the bodegas had empty shelves or were closing because of staff illness, during the pandemic. In LA, it’s hard to get around if you don’t have a car, but a lot of people who live in communities that are food deserts may not have a car. They rely on public transportation, but may not want to take public transportation during a pandemic. These are things that we were studying and are still studying. Our team involves not just psychologists and economists but people from different fields, and because we have connections with policy makers who are aware of our data, we talk to them about what they need to know to inform their work. That’s why those questions are on there.

4 Wei Lyu and George L. Wehby, “Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US: Study examines impact on COVID-19 growth rates associated with state government mandates requiring face mask use in public,” Health affairs 39, no. 8 (2020): 1419-1425, https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818.

50 CIRP Journal

Bill Brink: What do the findings from this study indicate that are actionable, that can help address the spread of COVID or those who have been affected in other ways?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: One thing that we’ve found is that the majority of people experiencing food insecurity are not receiving food assistance, and not everybody who is eligible is actually getting the food stamps that they’re eligible for.5 So, policy makers need to work harder to reach out to them. People are losing jobs during this pandemic and they are financially struggling and so stimulus checks are also really important in addition to food assistance.

Bill Brink: What don’t we know? What’s the next frontier of a study like this with a pandemic like this?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: I think that the next step will have to focus on public response to the vaccine and its rollout. I realize that a lot of policy makers in a lot of countries were surprised or not prepared for a pandemic. But the fact that the vaccine was coming should not have been a surprise, yet vaccine distribution seems to be a big problem. We put all this effort into developing this vaccine and now it seems to be a lot of struggles in actually getting it distributed. I realize it’s a “Currently the bottleneck big task, but it wasn’t an unexpected task. Then again, is that there aren’t enough a lot of countries seem to be struggling with it, it’s not just the US, so it is a difficult task that a lot of countries vaccines, but at some are just not set up for. point, the bottleneck will The next thing, I think, to worry about is, be vaccine hesitancy... once we smooth out the vaccine distribution issues, is to make sure that we reach everyone. Currently the Having good vaccine bottleneck is that there aren’t enough vaccines, but at messaging is important.” some point, the bottleneck will be vaccine hesitancy. And there’s some things we already know about reaching out to people, and some of these things are currently not yet implemented. For example, one important thing is to have good messaging and good policies about the vaccine and its distribution, and I haven’t really seen that yet. Some people may already know that they want the vaccine, some people may be anti-vaccine, but there’s a large group in the middle that’s moveable in terms of their opinions. We need to make sure that they have the correct information about vaccines. Having good vaccine messaging is important. And the other thing is, to make it as easy as possible for people to get vaccinated. There are studies that have suggested that if you invite people to get vaccinated, they’re more likely to come if you add to that invitation a scheduled appointment, as opposed to just asking them to show up or make an appointment themselves.6 Even if people can’t make the appointment, they may call and reschedule the appointment. Those kinds of strategies can make a difference. Making vaccinations readily available within communities rather than having people go to some location that’s difficult to get to. For example, here in LA, people have to go to Dodger Stadium. There are long lines. That means people have to be able to get there, they have to be able to take

5 Kayla de la Haye, Sydney Miller, Kate Weber, John Wilson, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, The Impact of COVID-19 on Food Insecurity in Los Angeles County: April to May 2020 (Los Angeles, CA: University of Southern California Public Exchange, July 27, 2020), https:// publicexchange.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/USCLAC-Food-Insecurity-Report-April-%E2%80%93-May-2020.pdf. 6 Birthe A. Lehmann, Gretchen B. Chapman, Frits ME Franssen, Gerjo Kok, and Robert AC Ruiter, “Changing the default to promote influenza vaccination among health care workers,” Vaccine 34, no. 11 (2016): 1389-1392, https://www.sciencedirect.com/ science/article/pii/S0264410X16000980.

51 Interview with Wändi Bruine de Bruin

time off of work to sit in the line, and so even people who want to get vaccinated may not be able to do these things. Taking away these barriers is really important. There’s another benefit to vaccinating in the community. In my work on people’s willingness to get flu shots, we have found that people look to others to inform their own behavior, specifically, others around them.7 They look at what their friends and family are doing. So we were able to predict whether people got a flu shot depending on not just their own past behaviors – if you’ve gotten flu shots in the past, you tend to get them again in the future – but we found that we could also predict whether or not people get a flu shot from perceptions of what their friends and family are doing. If you perceive that your friends and family are getting vaccinated, you’re more likely to get vaccinated a year later even if you did not get vaccinated in the past. We find that also in other contexts. We can also predict who you’re going to vote for based on your perceptions on how your friends and family are going to vote. It makes sense. It’s likely due to social norms and social influence. If you feel that’s what they’re doing, you feel like that’s maybe what you should be doing also, so it “If you move vaccine creates a social norm when you see what others distribution into the around you are doing. communities, it makes it But also, we surround ourselves with people, presumably, that we like and trust. If easier for people to see that they are doing something, then we may assume others in their community are that that’s the right thing to do. You respect getting vaccinated, and that their opinion, presumably, or most of them at least. Rather than on every topic, reading up on may do more for trust and it yourself and trying to be fully informed, you willingness to get vaccinated.” look to what they’re doing, or maybe you just ask them and as a result you get information that supports their behavior rather than an alternative behavior. If you move vaccine distribution into the communities, it makes it easier for people to see that others in their community are getting vaccinated, and that may do more for trust and willingness to get vaccinated than communications, especially in communities that may not necessarily trust vaccines.

Bill Brink: Is there anything I didn’t ask that you feel is important, or anything you’d like to add?

Wändi Bruine de Bruin: I also have work on mental health issues during a pandemic. This is a hard time for a lot of people. It’s especially a hard time for younger people. It tends to be the case that mental health issues are usually more prevalent in younger people than in older people. … This has been especially the case during the pandemic. I hope that we can find ways to get through this and especially help the younger people who are struggling with this to get through it. They are in the time of their lives when you’re supposed to go out and party and it’s important to hang out with your peers. I can’t imagine what it would be like to be an adolescent and stuck at home with your parents all the time, at a time when you don’t want to be with your parents. The pandemic is also difficult for parents who with school-age children, people who have lost their jobs, and those who lost loved ones to COVID-19. We all can’t wait for this to be over.

7 Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Andrew M. Parker, Mirta Galesic, and Raffaele Vardavas, “Reports of social circles’ and own vaccination behavior: A national longitudinal survey,” Health Psychology 38, no. 11 (2019): 975, https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2019-36359-001.

Live, intern, and study in Washington, DC

In the Carnegie Mellon Uni- versity Washington Semester Program (CMU/WSP), students spend a semester living, interning, and studying in the nation’s capital.

Carnegie Mellon’s Wash- ington offices overlook the Capitol and the Supreme Court. The Fall 2020 cohort of fourteen students held in- ternships at the US State De- partment, Voice of America, the Heritage Foundation, the Smithsonian Institution, as well as a wide range of other non-profits, public policy research centers, and public relations firms.

At night, the students receive instruction relevant to the issues and responsibilities they’ll face in the workforce. One night, they write policy by finding the underlying law in the US Code. Later in the week they’ll delve into the intersection of intelligence and policy.

During weekly policy fo- rums, students get access to veterans of the Beltway world: government officials, politicians, and thought leaders who have experience in the fields about which the students are learning.

Add the value of living away from campus, in a bustling city that serves as the nexus of power in the country, and the CMU/WSP gives students a unique foundational experience.

The articles in this journal come exclusively from the Fall 2020 CMU/WSP cohort.

For more information about the program, visit: www.cmu.edu/ips/cmuwsp/.

Center for International Relations and Politics Institute for Politics and Strategy Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Avenue Posner Hall 386 Pittsburgh, PA 15213 www.cmu.edu/ir [email protected]