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Greater Roaring Fork Regional Housing Study

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Greater Roaring Fork Regional Housing Study Final Report Greater Roaring Fork Regional Housing Study Prepared for: Greater Roaring Fork Region Municipal and Organizational Partnership Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. RRC Associates EPS #173102 April 1, 2019 Acknowledgements This project is the product of a regional collaboration of counties, municipalities, housing authorities, and community leaders. The project consultant team would like to thank each of the individuals for their financial support, collective vision, and time. Advisory Group Kim Bell-Williams (Eagle County) Sheryl Bower (Garfield County) Betsy Crum (Snowmass Village) Kate Gazunis (Garfield County Housing Authority) Heather Henry (Carbondale) Mason Hohstadt (Garfield County) Susan Philp (Basalt) Hannah Klausman (Glenwood Springs) Mike Kosdrosky (Aspen Pitkin County Housing Authority) Bill Lamont James Lindt (Basalt) David Myler Consultant Team Andrew Knudtsen, Managing Principal (EPS) David Schwartz, Executive Vice President (EPS) Chris Cares, Managing Director (RRC) David Becher, Director of Research (RRC) Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 1 What are the key takeaways from this study? ............................................................... 1 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................. 5 2. Economic and Demographic Analysis ................................................................. 21 Housing Gaps ......................................................................................................... 21 Demand-Side Trends ............................................................................................... 30 Supply Trends ........................................................................................................ 49 Housing Affordability Trends ..................................................................................... 54 Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................ 62 3. Household Survey ........................................................................................... 72 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 72 Respondent Characteristics ...................................................................................... 74 Satisfaction ............................................................................................................ 82 Retirement Issues ................................................................................................... 92 Live/Work Patterns .................................................................................................. 95 Down Payments and Household Incomes ................................................................. 109 4. Employer Survey Results ................................................................................ 115 Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................ 115 Employer Demographics ........................................................................................ 116 Employment Patterns ............................................................................................ 120 Employer Actions .................................................................................................. 129 Open-ended Comments and Suggestions ................................................................. 133 Appendix: Household Survey with Glenwood Springs Breakout .... 136 List of Tables Table 1. Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 ........................................................ 1 Table 2. Study Area Geography Definitions ....................................................................... 2 Table 3. Regional Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 .......................................... 23 Table 4. Eagle to Gypsum Area Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 ...................... 24 Table 5. New Castle to Parachute Area Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 ............ 25 Table 6. Glenwood Springs Area Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 ..................... 26 Table 7. Carbondale Area Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 .............................. 27 Table 8. Basalt Area Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 ...................................... 28 Table 9. Aspen to Snowmass Area Housing Units Needed by AMI, 2017 & 2027 .................. 29 Table 10. GRFR Wage & Salary Employment by Industry ................................................... 34 Table 11. Aspen to Snowmass Wage & Salary Employment by Industry ............................... 35 Table 12. Basalt Wage & Salary Employment by Industry .................................................. 35 Table 13. Carbondale Wage & Salary Employment by Industry ........................................... 36 Table 14. Glenwood Springs Wage & Salary Employment by Industry .................................. 36 Table 15. New Castle to Parachute Wage & Salary Employment by Industry ......................... 37 Table 16. Eagle to Gypsum Wage & Salary Employment by Industry ................................... 37 Table 17. Regional Population Trends, 2001-2017 ............................................................. 40 Table 18. Regional Population Change by Age, Under 16 Years ........................................... 41 Table 19. Regional Population Change by Age, 16 to 64 Years ............................................ 42 Table 20. Regional Population Change by Age, 65 Years and Over ....................................... 43 Table 21. Regional Population Projection, Under 16 Years .................................................. 44 Table 22. Regional Population Projection, 16 to 64 Years ................................................... 45 Table 23. Regional Population Projection, 65 to Years ........................................................ 46 Table 24. Owner Household Mortgage Status.................................................................... 48 Table 25. Housing Unit Trends, 2001-2017 ...................................................................... 49 Table 26. Vacant Unit Trends, 2001-2017 ........................................................................ 50 Table 27. Non-Local Ownership Trends, 2005-2017 ........................................................... 51 Table 28. Regional Short-Term Rentals ............................................................................ 52 Table 29. HUD Income Definitions ................................................................................... 59 Table 30. Affordable Purchase Prices ............................................................................... 60 Table 31. Affordability Gaps ........................................................................................... 61 Table 32. Aspen to Snowmass Out-Commuting Patterns .................................................... 62 Table 33. Basalt Area Out-Commuting Patterns ................................................................ 63 Table 34. Carbondale Area Out-Commuting Patterns ......................................................... 64 Table 35. Glenwood Springs Area Out-Commuting Patterns ................................................ 65 Table 36. New Castle to Parachute Area Out-Commuting Patterns ....................................... 66 Table 37. Eagle to Gypsum Area Out-Commuting Patterns ................................................. 67 Table 38. Jobs to Population ........................................................................................... 68 Table 39. Cost-Burdened Households in GRFR by Area, 2017 ............................................. 70 Table 40. Economic Impact of Overspending, 2017 ........................................................... 71 List of Figures Figure 1. Greater Roaring Fork Region Study Areas ............................................................ 2 Figure 2. Overall GRFR Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ............................................................ 5 Figure 3. Regional Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ................................................................ 23 Figure 4. Eagle to Gypsum Overall Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 .......................................... 24 Figure 5. New Castle to Parachute Overall Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ............................... 25 Figure 6. Glenwood Springs Overall Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ........................................ 26 Figure 7. Carbondale Area Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ..................................................... 27 Figure 8. Basalt Area Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ............................................................ 28 Figure 9. Aspen to Snowmass Overall Housing Gaps by AMI, 2017 ..................................... 29 Figure 10. Total GRFR Wage & Salary Employment & Seasonality ......................................... 31 Figure 11. Total Aspen to Snowmass Wage & Salary Employment & Seasonality .................... 31 Figure 12. Total Basalt Wage & Salary Employment & Seasonality ........................................ 32 Figure 13. Total Carbondale Wage & Salary Employment & Seasonality ................................ 32 Figure 14. Total Glenwood Springs Wage & Salary Employment & Seasonality ....................... 33 Figure 15. Total New Castle to
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