Politics of Climate Change Belief

editorial Politics of climate change belief

Donald Trump’s actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

Earlier this year, Donald Trump appointed Trump’s strategy. However, it seems more Myron Ebell, a known climate science likely that Clinton’s explicit references to denier, to oversee the US Environmental climate change were designed to reach Protection Agency transition (he later young voters2 who are already concerned chose another sceptic, Scott Pruitt, to run about the environmental impacts of climate the agency), and said that he would ‘cancel’ change, rather than those who need to be the Paris climate agreement. By the end persuaded by economic arguments. One of his second week as president-elect, it could even speculate that merely saying was announced that under Trump funds “climate change” highlighted the political from NASA’s Earth Science Division would divide between these latter voters and be redirected to deep space exploration Clinton, something that this issue has come projects, effectively eliminating a world- to symbolize. renowned centre for climate change There is no doubt value in determining research (see ref. 1 for a complete overview how to better educate the public about of Trump’s actions). This is notable given climate science. However, interventions that, as discussed in our November News based on the assumption that informing the Feature2, climate change was not central to public about environmental consequences the US presidential campaigns, and is not will inspire pro-environmental behaviour an issue that motivates electoral decisions. are not effective, particularly if people Moreover, it is not clear how such actions do not already value environmental 8

speak to the concerns that motivated / GETTY NEWS / CORBIS / CONTRIBUTOR FADEK TIMOTHY protection . More troublingly, belief in Trump voters. Instead, these actions climate change has only a small to moderate reinforce and provide a striking example of effect on whether people choose to act in the political polarization of climate change. “Climate change” was said exactly environmentally friendly ways3. In fact, Indeed, the justification given for defunding once in each of the three presidential communicating co-benefits of addressing climate change research at NASA is to debates. In each case, Hillary Clinton climate change — such as economic abolish “politicized science”. was discussing the economic benefits development — motivates action to a A meta-analysis published in this of growing clean energy, and then gave similar degree as believing that climate journal last year showed that ideology what were arguably ‘shout outs’ to climate change is important9. When it comes to and political orientation were among the change as another reason clean energy addressing the urgency of climate change strongest predictors of climate change policies are important. (The closest any mitigation, we need to ask whether it is belief 3. However, there is a stark contrast question came to referring to climate necessary to change people’s beliefs about between the politics of climate change change was a question about energy anthropogenic climate change, or whether belief and the politics of climate mitigation policy and remaining “environmentally it is more important to convince people behaviour. For example, Florida went friendly”.) When asked directly about to engage in and support pro-climate to Trump, but also voted to allow the the Paris agreement in an interview with behaviours and policies, irrespective of expansion of solar power. The disconnect The New York Times in late November, their beliefs. ❐ between political polarization on climate Trump quickly pivoted from whether or change and support for clean energy cannot not he believes in human-caused climate References be attributed to unusual voter behaviour in change to the importance of ensuring that 1. Sneed, A. Trump’s first 100 days: climate and energy. Scientific an unconventional election cycle. The states American companies are competitive, American (29 November 2016); http://go.nature.com/2hDCrKs 2. Mathiesen, K. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 979–981 (2016). that produce the greatest proportion of their essentially saying his belief in climate 3. Hornsey, M. J., Harris, E. A., Bain, P. G. & Fielding, K. S. 4 electricity from wind , and the top wind- change depends on the corporate cost of Nat. Clim. Change 6, 622–626 (2016). energy producing congressional districts5, such a belief. On the one hand, climate 4. Wind generation share exceeded 10% in 11 states in 2015. US Energy Information Administration (26 October 2016); are all led by Republicans. In fact, many change sceptics respond more positively http://go.nature.com/2hkQW6N Republicans support policies that promote when addressing climate change is framed 5. Ryan, J. Republicans are warming up to renewable energy development of clean and renewable in terms of economic and technological data from American Wind Energy Association. Bloomberg energy not because they reduce greenhouse development6, consistent with Clinton’s (20 April 2016); http://go.nature.com/2gQzgPL 6. Bain, P. G., Hornsey, M. J., Bongiorno, R. & Jeffries, C. gas emissions, but because of potential strategy; on the other hand, conservative Nat. Clim. Change 2, 600–603 (2012). economic benefits. This begs the question white males, who are significantly more 7. McCright, A. & Dunlap, R. E. Glob. Environ. Change of whether the success of climate change likely to report climate change scepticism, 21, 1163–1172 (2011). 8. Bolderdijk, J. W., Gorsira, M., Keizer, K. & Steg, L. PLoS ONE communication is actually hampered by are more likely to favour protection of the 8, e83911 (2013). mentioning climate change at all. current economic system7, consistent with 9. Bain, P. G. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 154–157 (2016).