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DEEPER INSIGHT FROM BIG DATA AND SMALL AREAS PORTO | PORTUGAL | 07 - 09 SEPTEMBER 2017 Table 3 Organisation of Contents 4 Venue 5 Social Programme 7 Extra Social Programme 9 Informations 11 Pre-Conference Workshops 11 Modelling spatial and spatio-temporal areal unit data in R with CARBayes 12 Health Applications of Google Earth Engine 13 Scientific Programme 25 Invited Speakers | Short Biographies 85 Plenary Sessions 85 Plenary Session I 87 Plenary Session II 89 Plenary Session III 93 Oral Communications 93 Parallel Session 1 | GIS In Public Health I 103 Parallel Session 2 | Spatial Health Surveillance I 111 Parallel Session 3 | Spatial Health Surveillance II 121 Parallel Session 4 | Spatial Survival And Registry Data Analysis I 127 Parallel Session 5 | Spatial Survival And Registry Data Analysis II 135 Parallel Session 6 | Clustering Of Temporal Trends In Space-Time Disease Mapping 143 Parallel Session 7 | Data Science Applied To Health: Strategies And Tools For Big Data, Machine Learning And Data Mining 151 Parallel Session 8 | Modifiable Areal Unit Issues And Methods 159 Parallel Session 9 | Social Networks And Spatial Epidemiology: Tools, Opportunities And Challenges 167 Parallel Session 10 | Modelling Climate-Sensitive Disease I 173 Parallel Session 11 | Modelling Climate-Sensitive Disease II 183 Parallel Session 12 | Agent-Based Modelling Table of Contents 189 Parallel Session 13 | GIS In Public Health II 203 Parallel Session 14 | Modelling And Inference In Infectious Disease Epidemiology 211 Parallel Session 15 | The Use Of Linked Data In Spatial Epidemiology 221 Parallel Session 16 | Joint Modelling With Spatial Variation 229 Parallel Session 17 | Remote Sensing Applications In Health 237 Parallel Session 18 | Challenges And Advances In Spatio-Temporal Disease Modelling 245 Posters 245 Posters' List 245 Poster Session 1 251 Poster Session 2 257 Poster Session 3 263 Posters Abstracts 263 Poster Session 1 341 Poster Session 2 401 Poster Session 3 465 Participants’ List 1 GEOMED 2017 is the X international, interdisciplinary Welcome conference on spatial statistics, geographical epidemiology and geographical aspects of public health. The conference aims to bring together statisticians, geographers, epidemiologists, computer scientists, and public health professionals to discuss methods of spatial analysis, as well as present and debate the results of such analyses. The first GEOMED conference was held in Rostock (Germany) in 1997 and since then it has been held in Paris (France) in 1999 and 2001, Baltimore (USA) in 2003, Cambridge (UK) in 2005, Charleston (USA) in 2009, Victoria (Canada) in 2011, Sheffield (UK) in 2013 and Florence (Italy) in 2015. In 2017, the Geomed meeting will be held in Porto, Portugal! The organizing committee 3 Chair Scientific Committee Organisation Maria de Fátima de Pina Ana Diez Roux Andrew Lawson Organizing Committee Annibale Biggeri Alexandre Magalhães David Martin Carla Maria Oliveira Denisa Mendonça Hugo Teixeira Duncan Lee Marcos Gomes Emanuela Dreassi Mónica Avelar Magalhães Jamie Pearce Renata Gracie Maria de Fátima de Pina Sandra Maria Alves Marilia Sá Carvalho Peter Diggle Renato Assunção Robert Haining Trevor Bailey 4 The conference will take place at Venue i3S - Instituto de Investigação e Inovação da Universidade do Porto Address Rua Alfredo Allen, 208 4200-135 Porto, Portugal Telephone +351 220 408 800 Google map link https://goo.gl/maps/ yvstCwa8Wmp Website www.i3s.up.pt E-mail [email protected] 5 Social 07 September 2017 Programme 18.30 | Porto drink at i3S 08 September 2017 19.00 | Bus from i3S to Quinta da Boeira Restaurant at Vila Nova de Gaia (Rua Teixeira Lopes, 170, Vila Nova de Gaia) 20.00 | Dinner at Quinta da Boeira Restaurant Social Programme | 6 Before dinner you will have the opportunity to visit an exhibition of typical boats (caravels) placed at the wine store and taste a Port Wine. 23.00 | Bus from Quinta da Boeira Restaurant to i3S, with a brief stop at Avenida dos Aliados. As an alternative, participants can walk 7 minutes’ foot and pick up the Metro at Câmara de Gaia station, line D – yellow (destination Hospital de S. João), single travel ticket price: 1,20 €. 7 The organization prepared an optional social programme on Extra Social September 9th, afternoon. It will include a walking tour around Programme historical center of Porto with duration of approximately 2,5 hours and a visit to the Cálem Port Wine Cellars. This extra social programme has an extra cost of 22€. Participants will visit some of the most historic buildings and places of Porto, starting at the Cathedral, São Bento railway station, passing by Clérigos tower, Lello’s Library, Vitoria gazebo with a panoramic view of the Porto city, Bolsa Palace, Infante square, San Francisco Church and Ribeira. Placed near the Douro river at Vila Nova de Gaia, Cálem Port Wine Cellars is recognized not only for the exceptional quality of its wines, but also for its secular history. The visit has a duration of 40 minutes and at the end you will have the opportunity of tasting two kinds of Cálem Port Wine. Extra Social Programme | 8 Programme 14:30 | Meeting point in Aliados, in front of Intercontinental Hotel, and Walking Visit Tour 17:15 | Visit to Port Wine Cellars 22.00 | Music concert at Aliados (free of charge) Participants can enjoy a music concert of the Orquestra Sinfónica do Porto Casa da Música at Av. Aliados From i3S The easiest way to reach Aliados is by metro. At Pólo Universitário station, take Line D - yellow (destination Santo Ovídio) and leave at station: Aliados (no connections - direct line) | Average time: 15 minutes | Single travel ticket price: 1,20 €. 9 Registration Desk Informations Registrations will take place at i3S main entrance. On 6th September, the registration desk will open at 13:20 and on 7th September will open at 08:20. Name badges For identification and security purposes, participants must wear their name badges when in the venue. The use of the badge is mandatory for the access to the conferences, coffee breaks, lunches and dinner. Presentation instructions The plenary sessions should last up to 30 minutes followed by a 10-minute discussion. The invited lectures should last up to 15 minutes followed by 5-minute discussion. Oral communications should last up to 15 minutes followed by 5 minute-discussion. The chairs are requested to lead the discussion and to ensure that the times are strictly followed. Plenary sessions will take place in Auditorium Mariano Gago, while live streaming will be available at Auditorium Corino de Andrade. In the latter Auditorium, participants will also have the opportunity to interact with the speaker, asking questions and receiving the answers. Seat occupancy will be made on a first- come-first-serve basis. Speakers presenting in the morning should hand in their presentations in the auditorium until 8:45 of the present day. Those having their presentations in the afternoon sessions, should hand in their presentations during lunch break. A data show and personal computer will be at the presenters’ disposal. Technicians will be available to make sure that you have successfully uploaded your presentation. You will be requested to provide your presentation in a USB key. If strictly necessary, you may use your own computer, which should be installed and properly tested prior to your presentation at the indicated times. Informations | 10 Poster presentations Posters should have 1.20m high and 0.90m wide, and will be presented on the designated poster area at i3S main entrance. Authors are requested to put up their posters before poster session 1 and remove it in the end of the poster session 3. Conference staff will be present to provide assistance. Authors should remain next to their poster during the poster session. Chairs will discuss the posters with the authors. Each poster will have 2 minutes of presentation followed by 1 minute of discussion. Poster Session 1 Poster 1 to 31 (Thursday, September 07th, 16:10-16:50) Poster Session 2 Poster 32 to 60 (Friday, September 08th, 16:10-16:50) Poster Session 3 Poster 61 to 92 (Saturday, September 09th, 10:40-11:20) Internet access Wireless Internet is available for free in the venue. Meals and coffee breaks Coffee breaks will be served at i3S main entrance in the foyer. Lunch will be served at the foyer of Auditorium Corino de Andrade. Participants with food restrictions should ask for their special meals 11 Pre- 6th September | 14:00 - 18:20 Conference Modelling spatial and spatio-temporal areal unit data in R with CARBayes Workshops Auditorium Corino de Andrade Duncan Lee Spatial and spatio-temproal areal unit data are prevalent in the fields of epidemiology, geography and statistics, and the spatial autocorrelation in these data is typically modelled by a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model as part of a Bayesian hierarchical framework. These models can be implemented in the R packages CARBayes (spatial data) and CARBayesST (spatio- temporal data), and this workshop will describe the models that can be fitted and illustrate the process on real data examples. These examples will be a full spatio-temporal data analysis, including reading in and formatting data, producing exploratory maps and measures of spatial autocorrelation, model fitting and checking, and visualising the results. Univariate and multivariate spatial data models will be discussed, as will spatio-temporal data modelling. Pre-Conference Workshops | 12 Health Applications of Google Earth Engine Meeting Room A Allison Lieber Google Earth Engine is a planetary-scale platform for Earth science data & analysis, powered by Google’s cloud infrastructure. Google Earth Engine combines a multi-petabyte catalog of satellite imagery and geospatial datasets with planetary- scale analysis capabilities and makes it available for scientists, researchers, and developers to detect changes, map trends, and quantify differences on the Earth’s surface.