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Can an Increase in Public Investment Sustainably Lift Economic Growth?

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Can an Increase in Public Investment Sustainably Lift Economic Growth? Unclassified ECO/WKP(2016)75 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 24-Nov-2016 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________ English - Or. English ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT Unclassified ECO/WKP(2016)75 Cancels & replaces the same document of 23 November 2016 CAN AN INCREASE IN PUBLIC INVESTMENT SUSTAINABLY LIFT ECONOMIC GROWTH? ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1351 By Annabelle Mourougane, Jarmila Botev, Jean-Marc Fournier, Nigel Pain and Elena Rusticelli OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Authorised for publication by Christian Kastrop, Director, Policy Studies Branch, Economics Department. All Economics Department Working Papers are available at www.oecd.org/eco/workingpapers. English JT03406120 Complete document available on OLIS in its original format - This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of Or. English international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ECO/WKP(2016)75 OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Comment on the Papers is invited, and may be sent to OECD Economics Department, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, or by e-mail to [email protected]. All Economics Department Working Papers are available at www.oecd.org/eco/workingpapers. Recent working papers on the same topics include: Fournier, J.-M. and Å. Johansson (2016), “The Effect of the Size and the Mix of Public Spending on Growth and Inequality”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1344, OECD Publishing, Paris. Fournier, J. (2016), “The Positive Effect of Public Investment on Potential Growth”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1347, OECD Publishing, Paris. Bloch, D., Fournier, J., Gonzales, D. and Pina, A. (2016), “Trends in Public Finances: Insights from a New Detailed Dataset”, OECD Economic Department Working Papers, No. 1345, OECD Publishing, Paris. 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All requests for commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected] 2 ECO/WKP(2016)75 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ Can an increase in public investment sustainably lift economic growth? This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which raising public investment can sustainably lift growth without deteriorating public finances. To do so, it relies on a range of simulations using three different macro-structural models. According to the simulations, OECD governments could finance a ½ percentage point of GDP investment-led stimulus for three to four years on average in OECD countries without raising the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, provided projects are sound. After one year, the average output gains for the large advanced economies of such a stimulus amount to 0.4-0.6%. However, the gains are particularly uncertain for Japan. Reprioritising spending in later years would lead to average long-term output gains of between 0.5 to 2% in the large advanced economies. Those gains depend on the assumptions made on the rate of return. Hysteresis reinforces the case for an investment-led stimulus. Output gains will also be higher if the stimulus is combined with structural reforms and if countries act collectively. JEL Classification: C3, E6 Keywords: public investment, public debt, fiscal multiplier ****** Une augmentation de l'investissement public peut-elle durablement augmenter la croissance? Ce document de travail cherche à déterminer les conditions dans lesquelles l'augmentation de l'investissement public peut soutenir la croissance durablement sans détériorer les finances publiques. Pour ce faire, il s'appuie sur une série de simulations utilisant trois modèles macro-structurels différents. Selon les simulations, les gouvernements des pays de l'OCDE pourraient financer une augmentation de l'investissement de ½ point de PIB pendant trois à quatre ans en moyenne dans les pays de l'OCDE sans augmenter le ratio dette sur PIB à moyen terme, à condition que les projets soient de bonne qualité. Après un an, les gains moyens de production pour les grandes économies avancées d'un tel stimulus s'élèvent à 0,4-0,6%. Cependant, ces gains sont particulièrement incertains pour le Japon. Une réallocation des dépenses vers celles qui sont les plus productives les années suivantes, se traduirait par des gains moyens à long terme de production entre 0,5 et 2% dans les grandes économies avancées. Ces gains dépendent des hypothèses retenues sur le taux de rendement. Les effets d'hystérésis renforcent l'argument en faveur d'une augmentation de l'investissement public. Les gains de production seront également plus élevés si le stimulus est combiné à des réformes structurelles et si les pays agissent collectivement. Classification JEL: C3, E6 Mots clés: investissement public, dette publique, multiplicateur budgétaire 3 ECO/WKP(2016)75 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction and summary .................................................................................................................... 6 2. Public investment has been weak ......................................................................................................... 8 3. Simulation design ............................................................................................................................... 10 4. In the short term an investment-led stimulus boosts output and reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio ......... 16 5. Public investment has a positive long-term effect on growth ............................................................. 18 The outcomes depend markedly on assumptions about the rate of return on public investment ........... 20 Hysteresis reinforces the case for an investment-led stimulus ............................................................... 21 The effect of stimulus on debt dynamics appears to be stronger at the zero-lower bound ..................... 22 An increase in public investment reduces uncertainties around public debt .......................................... 23 6. What are the gains of going collective? .............................................................................................. 24 7. Combining an investment stimulus with structural reform enhances growth impacts ....................... 27 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................. 30 ANNEX 1. DESCRIPTION OF THE MODELS .......................................................................................... 33 1. The Fall & Fournier model ................................................................................................................. 33 2. The Fiscal Maquette model ................................................................................................................ 34 Specification of the main equations ....................................................................................................... 34 Parameters and calibration ..................................................................................................................... 36 Tables Table 1. Country-specific conditions and the impact of public investment stimulus on output .................. 8 Figures Figure 1. Public investment in selected OECD countries ............................................................................ 9 Figure 2. Infrastructure investment has been weak across the OECD ...................................................... 10 Figure 3. Estimates of returns to public investment ................................................................................... 11 Figure 4. Average annual increase in public investment during episodes of investment expansion ......... 12 Figure 5. Number of years during which a permanent growth-enhancing investment increase can be funded with temporary deficits ......................................................................... 14 Figure 6. The short-term effect of a sustained
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