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International Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 28, No. 12, (2019), pp. 57-67 Deterministic Approach for Temporal Patterns of Particle Pollution Analysis S.L. Sailaja1, Dr.P. Rajesh2 1Research Scholar, Dept. of CSE, Koneru Lakshmaiah University, Vaddeswaram, AP. 2Associate Professor, Dept. of CSE, Koneru Lakshmaiah University, Vaddeswaram, AP. [email protected] [email protected] Abstract This paper presents a detailed analysis of air pollutants trend in Vijayawada. Vijayawada, designated as part of the state capital Amaravati, smoke and existing pollution levels in the city has exceeded the standard levels due to increase in population and the constructional activities being taken up in the recent years after the bifurcation of the Telugu states. This has made a profound influence to carry out the study on pollution in Vijayawada using data analytics. Descriptive analysis has been carried out to study the trends of air pollutants like Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) (PM2.5 and PM10), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Ozone (O3) based on Air Quality Index (AQI) scale. AQI scale is a standard scale defined by the governments of respective countries. Then the contamination characteristics of particulate matters were analyzed, which further served to determine the characteristics of temporal patterns pollution variations of NO2, SO2, CO, O3. Most of the air pollution monitoring systems in India are ground-based and are dependent on meteorological data which reflects inaccurate predictions of pollutant concentrations. Geo-Spatial data integrated with Deep Learning techniques facilitates an increased awareness on the geospatial diversity, scalable to different locations. The proposed work intends to model, predict the particulate pollutant levels before they reach abnormal levels, predict the chronic disease patterns caused by particulate matter, thereby creating relevant human-health awareness. Keywords: Temporal Patterns, Air Pollutants, Suspended Particulate Matter, Spatio- Temporal Patterns. 1. Introduction Air Pollution is a global phenomenon. Rapid Urbanization and Industrialization have an adverse effect on both outdoor and indoor pollution, a serious risk factor that intensifies severe acute and chronic diseases. Natural and anthropogenic sources of outdoor air pollution include dust storms and forest fires. Human actions are the primary cause of pollution. As the pollution increases, the attendant pollution problems also increase proportionately. These human actions include residential cooking, municipal and agricultural wastes, industrial wastes, heat and power generation from power plants and boilers, fuel combustion from motor vehicles. Most of the adverse health effects have been observed either by the short-term or long-term exposure to air pollution both indoor ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 57 Copyright ⓒ2019 SERSC International Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 28, No. 12, (2019), pp. 57-67 and outdoor. Bronchitis and asthma are likely to increase significantly in coming decades due to air pollution. As per the observations made by the environmental scientists and the pulmonologists, " Though dust and smoke are at moderate levels when compared to Hyderabad and Visakhapatnam, 30% to 40% of residents of Vijayawada are infected by air pollution caused by industrial emissions and vehicular emissions. As per the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, the respirable suspended particulate matter is highly registered (Defined - 60g/m3, Registered- 90-110g/m3). The major sources of air pollution in Vijayawada are due to vehicle emissions, road dust, biomass burning, industrial emissions and usage of fuel other than LPG for cooking. 1.1 Sources of Pollution 1.1.1 Industrial emissions: One of the major industries in Vijayawada is Vijayawada Thermal Power Station (VTPS) located at Ibrahimpatnam on the west side of Vijayawada. Apart from this, there are two industrial estates around the city - Autonagar industrial estate and another Industrial estate located at Kondapalli. 1.1.2 Vehicular Emissions: The commercial capital city- Vijayawada is well connected to other parts of the country by national highways NH-5, NH-9, NH-221. Besides the floating pollution due to the heavy transportation on these national highways, the city is also interconnected with local public transport as well as the individual transportation [1]. Also, it is observed that Particulate matter such as PM10 are high at Benz circle, Police Control Room and Autonagar during January-July when compared with other locations in the city. Apart from the harmful air pollutants such as CO, NO2, SO2, there is a need for government and public to focus on PM2.5, a mixed air pollutant with aerodynamic diameters of 2.5µm and inhalable particles PM10 with aerodynamic diameters of 10µm [2]. Chronic exposures to higher concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 leads to increased morbidity and mortality to general public. To emphasize on the action plan to reduce levels of PM10 as stated by Anumita Roy Chowdhury, Executive Director of Centre for Science and Environment " Vijayawada requires to reduce its PM10 concentration by approximately 42% while Visakhapatnam by 11%"[3] [4]. 1.2 Types of Pollutants in Ambient Air and associated health risks involved Air Pollutants with the strongest evidence of public health concern, include concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), Ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO) [5]. Emission of air pollutants is caused by different anthropogenic processes which can be categorized into the source groups motor traffic, industry, power plants, trade, and domestic fuel [6][7]. The associated health risks of the respective air pollutants are listed as below in Table 1 [8] [9]. ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 58 Copyright ⓒ2019 SERSC International Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 28, No. 12, (2019), pp. 57-67 Table 1: Pollutants and their associated health risks Pollutant Sources Health Risk Particulate Combustion engines, Solid fuel Penetrates through lungs and matter combustion in domestic and enter the bloodstream. industries. Nitrogen Power generation sources, Bronchitis Dioxide Industrial and traffic sources. Asthma (NO2) Reduced lung function and growth Premature mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Sulphur Burning of fossil fuels, Smelting Inflammation of the respiratory Dioxide of mineral ores. tract aggravates asthma, (SO2) chronic bronchitis. Carbon Motor vehicle emissions and Headache monoxide burning of fossil fuels. Nausea, Dizziness (CO) Increased risk of Heart diseases Become Unconscious Ground level Major component of Asthma Ozone (O3) photochemical smog due to motor Reduced lung function and vehicle exhausts, industrial respiratory diseases. facilities, chemical solvents 2. Existing System Air Quality Monitoring helps us to assess the level of pollution of an area in relation to the ambient air quality standards. Now-a-days Air quality controlling and monitoring has become a predominant domain in India. Data generation [10] for air quality controlling and monitoring requires involvement of monitoring agencies, equipment for data sampling, chemical analysis, reporting mechanism round the clock [11]. Applied worldwide, WHO Air Quality standard guideline the Table.2: Table 2: Air Quality Standard Guidelines as defined by WHO Particle Defined Value Fine Particulate 10 μg/m3 annual mean 3 Matter (PM2.5) 25 μg/m 24-hour mean 3 Coarse Particulate 20 μg/m annual mean 3 Matter (PM10) 50 μg/m 24-hour mean Nitrogen Dioxide 40 μg/m3 annual mean (NO2) 200 μg/m3 1-hour mean Sulphur Dioxide 78 μg/m3 annual mean (SO2) 20 μg/m3 24-hour mean 500 μg/m3 10-minute mean 3 Ground level Ozone 100 μg/m 8-hour mean ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 59 Copyright ⓒ2019 SERSC International Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 28, No. 12, (2019), pp. 57-67 To measure AQI values, the fixed and high cost air-quality monitoring stations are required. 2.1 Number of Monitoring Stations in Andhra Pradesh There are 25 monitoring stations in 15 cities/towns in Andhra Pradesh state. Table.3 given below shows state-wise and city-wise number of operating monitoring stations. Table 3. List of Monitoring stations in AP State Name City Name No. of Monitoring stations Anantapur 1 Chittoor 2 Eluru 1 Guntur 1 Kadapa 1 Kakinada 1 Kurnool 1 Andhra Pradesh Nellore 1 Ongole 1 Rajahmundry 1 Srikakulam 1 Tirupati 1 Vijayawada 3 Vishakhapatnam 8 Vizianagaram 1 Data on ambient air pollution is taken from Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board (APPCB) [12] under its National Air Monitoring Program (NAMP). The sampling location chosen is PWD Grounds, Vijayawada. As stated by Government of India, 523 manual monitoring stations across 215 cities and towns are operated across states, the air quality monitoring is limited in scope. The recorded values are qualitative with an immense time lag in reporting the data. The trends derived from the monitoring stations represent more of an urban trend and the network is not designed to track the nationwide emission trends. Real time actions on the air quality profile does not guarantee the quantitative confirmation on the downward trend of pollution emissions. To setup monitoring stations based on the density of the population, to study the pollutants they are exposed still remains a challenging task due to lack of government commitment, stakeholder participation, limited portion of the budget allocated for air quality management. 3.