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Xerox University Microfilms 300 North Zeab Road Ann Arbor, Michigan +8106 I INFORMATION TO USERS This material was produced from a microfilm copy of the original document. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the original submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or patterns which may appear on this reproduction. 1.The sign or "target" for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s| or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting thru an image and duplicating adjacent pages to insure you complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a large round black mark, it is an indication that the photographer suspected that the copy may have moved during exposure and thus cause a blurred image. You will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., was part of die material being photographed the photographer followed a definite method in "sectioning" the material. It is customary to begin photoing at the upper left hand corner of a large sheet and to continue photoing from left to right in equal sections with a small overlap. If necessary, sectioning is continued again — beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. The majority of users indicate that the textual content is of greatest value, however, a somewhat higher quality reproduction could be made from "photographs" if essential to the understanding of the dissertation. Silver prints of "photographs" may be ordered at additional charge by writing the Order Department, giving the catalog number, title, author and specific pages you wish reproduced. 5. PLEASE NOTE: Some pages may have indistinct print. Filmed as received. Xerox University Microfilms 300 North Zeab Road Ann Arbor, Michigan +8106 I 76-5655 STROMEN, Norton Duane, 1932- SEASCNAL CHANGE IN THE AXIS OF MAXIMLW LAKE-SNOW IN WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. Michigan State University, Ph.D., 1975 Physical Geography Xerox University Microfilms, Ann Arbor, mmiiowwob SEASONAL CHANGE IN THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM LAKE-SNOW IN WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN By Norton D. Strommen A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Geography 1975 ABSTRACT SEASONAL CHANGE IN THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM LAKE-SNOW IN WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN By Norton D. Strommen A shift in the area of maximum lake-effect snowfall from inland toward Lake Michigan between November and January and a return inland by March— over western Lower Michigan was investigated for the period from November, 1965, through March, 1971. The seasonal pattern for all areas of western Lower Michigan was similar but with the displacement nearly twice as great in the northwest section Lake-snow days for western Lower Michigan were iden tified for the period from November, 196 5, through March, 1971. Daily lake-snow maps were analyzed to determine the axis of maximum snow; the displacement from the lakeshore was measured along three traverses, one each in southwest, west-central, and northwest Lower Michigan. Temperature differences, lake water to 850mb ambient air, were com­ puted for each day of lake-snow using car-ferry and radio­ sonde data. The geostrophic wind for the surface, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb levels were calculated for a point over mid-Lake Michigan; the observed winds for Green Bay, Norton D . Strommen Wisconsin, and Flint, Michigan, were extracted from the records at Asheville, North Carolina, for the surface, S50mb, 700mb, and 500mb levels. The seasonal shift in the location of the axis of maximum lake-snow was found to be related to the degree of temperature difference between the lake water and the air being advected over it at 850mbs, the observed wind flow in the lower troposphere upstream and downstream from the area of active lake-snow, and the calculated geostrophic wind near mid-Lake Michigan. Increasing temperature differ­ ence between the lake water and 850mb level resulted in a smaller displacement of the axis of maximum snow for a given wind speed. The displacement of the axis of maximum lake- snow was most positively correlated with the geostrophic wind at the 850mb level. A statistically significant differ ence was found between the upstream (Green Bay, Wisconsin) and downstream (Flint, Michigan) observations, with a highly significant difference noted in January for the 850mb, 700mb and 500mb levels. Of these observations, those taken at Green Bay, Wisconsin, were more positively correlated with lake-snow displacement than were the others. Heavy lake-snow events, of four or more inches, are increasingly likely with increases in the temperature dif­ ference between the lake water and the air advected over it. Lake-snow of eight or more inches requires an additional Norton D. Strommen meteorological parameter, usually a weak short wave in the upper-level wind flow. The ratio of snowdepth to water content, while highly variable for individual lake-snow events, consis­ tently showed a seasonally lower ratio near the lakeshore and gradually increased inland. The monthly ratio of snowdepth to water content was similar to the annual pat­ tern. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express his deep appreciation to the many individuals who assisted in the completion of this study. Special appreciation is expressed to Dr. J. Harman, for his patience, words of encouragement, and advice as the study progressed. Among the many individuals who contributed in the various phases of the study are: Mrs. Maxine Oshel, Michi­ gan Weather Service, whose assistance was invaluable in assembling the data base and preparing snowfall maps; Dr. F. V. Nurnberger, Michigan Weather Service; Mr. W. Hodge, National Climatic Center; Dr. R. Katz, Mrs. R. Terry, and Mrs. M. Johnson, Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment; and Mr. J. Gerka, National Environmental Satellite Service. The study is dedicated to my wife, Rosemary, and children, Brad and Sara, whose encouragement and under­ standing during the difficult transition period enabled me to complete this study. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TA B L E S ...................................... V LIST OF FIGURES .................................... Vi Chapter I. INTRODUCTION ................................ I II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE................... 10 III. M E T H O D S .................................. 22 Determination of the Study A r e a ........ 22 The Physical Setting ..................... 26 M e t h o d s ................................. 28 Snowfall D a t a ......................... 29 Temperature D a t a ....................... 33 Lake Water Temperature D a t a .......... 33 Wind D a t a ............................. 35 Satellite Data ........ 38 IV. RESULTS .................................... 40 Hypothesis............................... 40 Displacement of the Axis of Maximum Snowfall............................... 41 Types of Snowfall Patterns............... 43 Types of Cloud Patterns as Seen From S a t e l l i t e ............................. 43 Displacement Versus Lake-Air Temperature Difference ............... 52 Geostrophic Wind Versus Displacement by Temperature Differences and Wind Direction Groups ....................... 52 Observed Wind Velocities Upstream and Downstream From Lake-Snow Activity . 58 Relationship of Heavy Snow to Season and AT * Tiake - T850 mb * • * ............ 63 Snowfall Versus Water Content .......... 66 • * • i n Chapter Page V. DISCUSSION OF R E S U L T S ................. 73 Seasonally Shifting Axis of Maximum L a k e - S n o w ......................... 73 Displacement Versus Temperature Difference AT - Tiake - T850 mb • • • • 74 Wind Velocities and Displacement ........ 75 Heavy Snow as Related to Increasing ATs 79 Snowfall Versus Water-Content Ratio . 79 VI. SUMMARY AND C O N C L U S I O N S ............... 82 Location of Axis of Maximum Lake-Snow With Progression of Winter ........ 82 Meteorological Factors Influencing the Shift in the Axis of Maximum Lake-Snow . 83 Heavy Lake-Snow Occurrence as Related to the Increasing Lake-Air Temperature Difference......................... 84 Snowdepth/Water-Content Pattern ........ 85 Conclusions ......................... 85 APPENDICES......................................... 89 A. LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH, 1965 to 1 9 7 1 ................ 90 B. DISPLACEMENT OF AXIS OF MAXIMUM SNOWFALL NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH, 1965 to 1971 . 97 C. TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE WATER AND 850 MB LEVEL .............. 104 D. GEOSTROPHIC WIND CONVERSION FROM DEGREES LATITUDE TO METERS PER SECOND AND KNOTS . Ill iv LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3-1. Displacement for Axis of Maximum Snowfall for Winter Seasons 1965-66 Through 1970-71 ................................... 25 4-1. Lake-Snow Days by Periods ................... 41 4-2. Student t Values, Converted to Percentage, as a Test of Significance in Difference of Green Bay and Flint Winds During Periods of Lake-Snow................................. 63 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1-1. Average Annual Snowfall for Lower Michigan, 1940-1969 6 3-1. Location of Traverses Used in Study Area . 23 3-2. Location of Selected Stations and Elevation in the Study A r e a .............. 27 3-3. Time of Cooperative Climatological Observa­ tions. The Cooperative Climatological Observations Are Late
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