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Fusion Rockets for Planetary Defense

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Fusion Rockets for Planetary Defense | Los Alamos National Laboratory | Fusion Rockets for Planetary Defense Glen Wurden Los Alamos National Laboratory PPPL Colloquium March 16, 2016 LA-UR-16-21396 LA-UR-15-xxxx UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA | Los Alamos National Laboratory | My collaborators on this topic: T. E. Weber1, P. J. Turchi2, P. B. Parks3, T. E. Evans3, S. A. Cohen4, J. T. Cassibry5, E. M. Campbell6 . 1Los Alamos National Laboratory . 2Santa Fe, NM . 3General Atomics . 4Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory . 5University of Alabama, Huntsville . 6LLE, University of Rochester, Rochester Wurden et al., Journal of Fusion Energy, Vol. 35, 1, 123 (2016) UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA | Los Alamos National Laboratory | How many ways is electricity made today? Primary Energy Source Nominally CO2 Free Current capacity (%) Expected Lifetime (yrs) Natural Gas no 100 Coal no 80.6 400 Oil no < 50 Biomass neutral 11.4 > 400 Wind yes 0.5 > 1000 Solar photovoltaic yes 0.06 > 1000 Solar thermal yes 0.17 > 1000 Hydro yes 3.3 > 1000 Wave/Tidal yes 0.001 > 1000 Geothermal yes 0.12 > 1000 Nuclear fission yes 2.7 > 400 [i] REN21–Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century Renewables 2012–Global Status Report, 2012, http://www.map.ren21.net/GSR/GSR2012.pdf , http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA | Los Alamos National Laboratory | What is the most important product that fusion could deliver? . Is it a 12th way to make electricity? . Why are we researching and promising a 12th way to make electricity, which is more complex, (and therefore likely more costly), than any other approach? . Is there something instead unique, that only fusion energy could do for the world? . Is it something worth doing? UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA | Los Alamos National Laboratory | Outline of this talk . Threat: Awareness . Impact: Annihilation . Solution: Detect, Intercept, Deflect . The need for speed: Fusion Rockets . A Program UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA A big comet/asteroid hit the Earth 65 million years ago comet wiping out dinosaurs jpg Web Images News Videos Shopping More Search tools I’ve watched a lot of comets over the years… one crashed into Jupiter. Hyakutake Hale-Bopp J. Linder/ESO West C/2014 Q2 Lovejoy http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2014-397 Comet C/2013 A1 Siding Springs and Mars Mars Comet Image byOct. Damian 19, 2014 Peach, Oct. 19, 2014 Most asteroids orbit between Mars and Jupiter, and are found in the same plane as the planets, with 3-7 year orbits Top view Side view Asteroids are troubling enough, so why are comets worse? Outer solar system Even further out solar system! The Ancients thought Comets were bad omens… and they were right! Photo credit: Alex Wurden, Glen Wurden, Comet Hale-Bopp, 1997 Photo credit: Matt Wang, Flickr: anosmicovni. European Space Agency. Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko Relative to Downtown Los Angeles • They are the fastest objects in the solar system. • Long-period comets are seen exactly once on the timescales of our civilization. • They come with little warning (6-18 months). • They tend to be big (1-40 km diameter). • If (when) one has our name written on it……. What should we do? Build an insurance policy for our Planet • Look harder…detect them sooner. • Be able to intercept and deflect a threat. • Use nuclear explosives to do the deflection, using radiation pressure to ablate comet material, causing an impulsive momentum change. • Only nuclear explosives have the necessary energy density. Weigh the likelihood, against the damages The most frequent event that can end your civilization… not merely destroy a city….is what you have to defend against. 1 km diameter objects impact every ~ 1 million years | Los Alamos National Laboratory | Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives NASA Report to Congress, March 2007 Impulsive Technique Description Conventional Explosive (surface) Detonate on Impact Conventional Explosive (subsurface) Drive explosive device into PHO, detonate Nuclear Explosive (standoff) Detonate on flyby via proximity fuse Nuclear Explosive (surface) Impact, detonate via contact fuse Nuclear Explosive (delayed) Land on surface, detonate at optimal time Nuclear Explosive (subsurface) Drive explosive device into PHO, detonate Kinetic Impact High velocity impact “In the impulsive category, the use of a nuclear device was found to be the most effective means to deflect a PHO”. “It should be noted that because of restrictions found in Article IV of the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, use of a nuclear device would likely require prior international coordination. The study team also examined conventional explosives, but found they were ineffective against most threats”. UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA | Los Alamos National Laboratory | The parameter space for deflection of a Potentially Hazardous Object (PHO) for a range of scenarios* *From 2007 NASA Report to Congress, Fig. 4, pg. 23, “Deflection performance of Impulsive Alternatives” UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA | Los Alamos National Laboratory | Six different scenarios The hypothetical scenarios include missions to deflect: . A. The 330-meter asteroid, Apophis, before its close approach to Earth in 2029. This scenario was divided into two design points: – A1. For the first, knowing the asteroid’s orbit is assumed and a relatively large momentum change is required to deflect the object with the required certainty. Apophis must be deflected by at least one Earth radius or about 6,400 km to achieve a probability of collision of less than 10-6. – A2. For the second, very accurate information about the object’s orbit is assumed and the impetus necessary to divert the asteroid with certainty is substantially reduced. Apophis must be deflected by at least five km to achieve a probability of collision of less than 10-6. B. Apophis after the close approach and before the 2036 Earth encounter, assuming a predicted collision. C. The 500-meter asteroid (VD17) that could be a threat in the year 2102. D. A hypothetical 200-meter asteroid, representative of 100-meter-class asteroids. E. A hypothetical asteroid larger than one km in diameter. F. A hypothetical long-period comet with a very short time (9-24 months) to impact. UNCLASSIFIED Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA How far, and how fast for the intercept? • Intercept in ½ the remaining time. • Geometry tells us the answer, with the Earth’s orbit radius of 1 AU, the Earth’s orbital velocity of 30 km/second, and the comet speed of order 25 km/second. 5-10 AU Astronomical Units in 6 months……… a spacecraft speed of 50-100 km/sec Delivering some Energy • For lateral deflection vo in an ideal, minimum energy, case, we would need an energy absorbed by the comet: 2 Wo = Mvo /2 where M is the comet mass and the deflection velocity vo is purely perpendicular to the comet’s initial velocity V . • A 1 km diameter comet, with density of 0.6 gm/cm3 has a mass of 3x1011 kg, and a deflection of 10 m/sec 7 corresponds to an energy W0 = 1.5 x 10 MJ. Balancing Momentum • Now if we consider (in the frame of motion of the comet) the ablated material to be treated as a rocket exhaust of average directed speed v, and we expel a mass m, then by momentum conservation: Mvo = mv • The total (directed) kinetic energy in the exhaust (not counting internal energy of the plume or radiation losses) becomes: 2 mv /2 = Mvvo/2 • Compared to the minimum energy Wo, we therefore need more energy by a factor of K = v/vo. For example, for our deflection vo = 10 m/s and an ablatant exhaust of v = 4 km/s, the yield of the nuclear explosive must increase by K = 400. Some rocket terminology • Specific power α (w/kg) of the power source, including waste heat radiators (if any) • The change in velocity that a rocket can achieve ΔV (m/sec) • Propellant exhaust velocity νe (m/sec) • The rocket equation = ( ΔV/ νe ) ⁄ − • Specific impulse I = νe / g (seconds) • Time τ to achieve ΔV (may be the mission duration) • Then in the limit of zero payload mass, there are a couple of important relationships: νe = 0.5 and ΔV = 0.81 • is known as the characteristic velocity Ion Propulsion for Space Flight, (E. Stuhlinger, McGraw-Hill, New York 1964.) Time to intercept 1/2 With exhaust speed of the intercept vehicle νe = 0.5 (2α ) 1/2 And the final ΔV = 0.81 (2α ) Then from the rocket equation, we have that the time for a flyby encounter (thrusting constantly all the way from the Earth) is: (R – R ) τ = Do [ 0.6 ve ++ (V VE ) ] Where RD and Ro are the radius of detection and radius of earth’s orbit, respectively, V is the comet speed (assumed to be constant, even though it gets faster as it approaches the Sun) and VE is the appropriate speed of the earth given the variation of angle during the comet’s approach for an intercept time comparable to a quarter to half of the earth’s period.
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